基于TOD的城市轨道交通可持续发展研究
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摘要
城市交通是城市经济和社会发展的重要基础,不同的交通系统决定了不同的城市空间拓展模式和城市土地利用方式。虽然发展城市大运量快速公共交通系统势在必行,我国城市轨道交通(Mass Rail Transit,MRT)也进入了快速发展时期,但对于轨道交通建设和经营这样一项耗资巨大、社会影响深远、投资难以回收的复杂系统工程,如何保证轨道交通的可持续发展已经成为许多城市发展必须面临的课题。轨道交通自从其出现以来,就表现出对城市空间、土地开发的导向作用,同时由于需要大规模的客流的支持,又表现出对土地开发依赖性的双重特点。鉴于轨道交通可持续发展的必要性和迫切性、轨道交通发展与其周边土地利用的紧密联系,本文从我国国情出发,以深圳市为例,在综合分析轨道交通可持续发展目标的基础上,从影响轨道交通发展的主要方面入手,建立了基于交通导向土地开发的综合轨道交通可持续发展模式,以期为我国轨道交通的可持续发展提供可借鉴的理论和方法。
本文在深入分析国内外相关研究成果的基础上,总结了轨道交通可持续发展、公共交通导向的土地开发(TOD,Transit-Oriented Development)模式、轨道交通投融资模式及政策方面的现状、不足和可借鉴的经验,然后在此基础上界定了轨道交通可持续发展模式的内涵和基本框架,提出了轨道交通在经济可持续、社会可持续、环境可持续等三个方面的发展目标,确定了保证轨道交通可持续发展的三个关键问题,即站点周边的土地使用问题、投融资模式问题及推进政策问题;针对这三个问题,首先,根据这三个可持续发展目标建立了一个两级轨道交通站点步行范围内土地利用规划模型及优化方法——先确定出研究范围内的土地开发类型和开发密度;其后建立了适合我国交通特点和TOD社区特点的交通方式划分与交通分配联合模型,以进行TOD规划结果的交通需求预测,验证规划结果的合理性;然后,为了实现轨道交通的经济可持续,将其外部效益转化为内部效益,建立了多元化轨道交通投融资模式,通过量化轨道交通带来了外部效益及其具体受益方,确定出适当的“效益返还”机制;最后,通过综合分析轨道交通系统的内部因素和外部环境,结合宏观仿真方法和微观仿真方法,采用系统动力学建立了轨道交通系统的宏观模型,采用元胞自动机建立土地使用情况模拟的微观模型加以补充,从而构建了轨道交通系统政策仿真模型以确定出合理的政策,保证轨道交通的可持续发展。
通过实证研究表明,本文建立的轨道交通可持续发展综合模型可以较好地解决轨道交通发展过程中遇到的周边土地利用问题、投融资问题及相关政策问题。因此,本研究具有较好的应用前景及推广价值。
Urban transportation is the important base of urban economy and society development, and transportation system determines the mode of city spread and land use. China has realized the significance of urban mass rapid transit, and mass rail transit (MRT) of China has stepped in the period of rapid development. However, for the synthesis and complication of MRT, its building and operation need vast capital, and the investment is difficult to get return. Sustainable MRT has become the inescapable problem confronting with many cities. Fortunately, as a rapid mass transportation mode, MRT has deep influence on society, which has significant orientation effect on urban space and land development. At the same time, it depends on land development highly for the demand of plentiful passengers in reverse. Whereas the necessity and impendency of sustainable MRT and the tight relation between MRT and land use, the research constructed sustainable MRT model of China based on transit-oriented development considering the situation of Chinese city, especially Shenzhen city.
On the basis of deep analysis on literature, the research summarizes the status quo, shortcoming and experience, then the sustainable MRT model is defined and framed, which has four aspects objectives, i.e. MRT sustainability on economy, society, environment and future. Whereafter, a two-stage TOD planning model and its optimizing algorithm are designed according to the four objectives. At the first stage, the land use type and density are determined in studied area; And the joint model of traffic split and assignment is constructed considering the characters of Chinese transportation and TOD community for the second stage, which forests traffic demand of TOD community planned in stage one to make sure of its reasonability. For the economic objective of MRT sustainability, i.e. converting external benefit to internal one, the financing mode of MRT is framed, in which the external benefit is quantified, and the mechanism of value capture is built. At last, the internal variables and external environment of MRT system are analyzed synthetically. Based on this, the policy simulation model of MRT system is constructed combining System Dynamics and Cecullar Automata for reasonable policy insuring sustainable MRT.
Case study indicates that the sustainable MRT model can solve the problems of land use, financing and policy during MRT building and operation commendably. Therefore, this research takes on a good future.
本文在深入分析国内外相关研究成果的基础上,总结了轨道交通可持续发展、公共交通导向的土地开发(TOD,Transit-Oriented Development)模式、轨道交通投融资模式及政策方面的现状、不足和可借鉴的经验,然后在此基础上界定了轨道交通可持续发展模式的内涵和基本框架,提出了轨道交通在经济可持续、社会可持续、环境可持续等三个方面的发展目标,确定了保证轨道交通可持续发展的三个关键问题,即站点周边的土地使用问题、投融资模式问题及推进政策问题;针对这三个问题,首先,根据这三个可持续发展目标建立了一个两级轨道交通站点步行范围内土地利用规划模型及优化方法——先确定出研究范围内的土地开发类型和开发密度;其后建立了适合我国交通特点和TOD社区特点的交通方式划分与交通分配联合模型,以进行TOD规划结果的交通需求预测,验证规划结果的合理性;然后,为了实现轨道交通的经济可持续,将其外部效益转化为内部效益,建立了多元化轨道交通投融资模式,通过量化轨道交通带来了外部效益及其具体受益方,确定出适当的“效益返还”机制;最后,通过综合分析轨道交通系统的内部因素和外部环境,结合宏观仿真方法和微观仿真方法,采用系统动力学建立了轨道交通系统的宏观模型,采用元胞自动机建立土地使用情况模拟的微观模型加以补充,从而构建了轨道交通系统政策仿真模型以确定出合理的政策,保证轨道交通的可持续发展。
通过实证研究表明,本文建立的轨道交通可持续发展综合模型可以较好地解决轨道交通发展过程中遇到的周边土地利用问题、投融资问题及相关政策问题。因此,本研究具有较好的应用前景及推广价值。
Urban transportation is the important base of urban economy and society development, and transportation system determines the mode of city spread and land use. China has realized the significance of urban mass rapid transit, and mass rail transit (MRT) of China has stepped in the period of rapid development. However, for the synthesis and complication of MRT, its building and operation need vast capital, and the investment is difficult to get return. Sustainable MRT has become the inescapable problem confronting with many cities. Fortunately, as a rapid mass transportation mode, MRT has deep influence on society, which has significant orientation effect on urban space and land development. At the same time, it depends on land development highly for the demand of plentiful passengers in reverse. Whereas the necessity and impendency of sustainable MRT and the tight relation between MRT and land use, the research constructed sustainable MRT model of China based on transit-oriented development considering the situation of Chinese city, especially Shenzhen city.
On the basis of deep analysis on literature, the research summarizes the status quo, shortcoming and experience, then the sustainable MRT model is defined and framed, which has four aspects objectives, i.e. MRT sustainability on economy, society, environment and future. Whereafter, a two-stage TOD planning model and its optimizing algorithm are designed according to the four objectives. At the first stage, the land use type and density are determined in studied area; And the joint model of traffic split and assignment is constructed considering the characters of Chinese transportation and TOD community for the second stage, which forests traffic demand of TOD community planned in stage one to make sure of its reasonability. For the economic objective of MRT sustainability, i.e. converting external benefit to internal one, the financing mode of MRT is framed, in which the external benefit is quantified, and the mechanism of value capture is built. At last, the internal variables and external environment of MRT system are analyzed synthetically. Based on this, the policy simulation model of MRT system is constructed combining System Dynamics and Cecullar Automata for reasonable policy insuring sustainable MRT.
Case study indicates that the sustainable MRT model can solve the problems of land use, financing and policy during MRT building and operation commendably. Therefore, this research takes on a good future.
引文
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