基于随机前沿和随机森林法的沿海开发区发展效率研究
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摘要
经过20余年的开发建设,国家级开发区在促进区域经济发展,扩大对外开放,吸引大型跨国公司投资项目,形成产业聚集方面取得了辉煌业绩,已成为中国经济重要的增长极。但随着经济全球化趋势加强,国际产业转移扩展,新的国际分工不断形成和深化,特别是危机后时代的来临,国家经济技术开发区正面临着土地瓶颈凸显、产业结构同质化、体制优势和政策优势日益弱化的挑战。在这样的国际、国内经济发展环境下,开发区必须努力调整经济结构,提高生产效率,转变经济发展方式,从过去的规模寻求发展模式转变到质量提高的发展模式,从而实现开发区又好又快的全面协调可持续发展。
本文把沿海国家级开发区的“发展效率”作为研究的重点,力图通过技术效率和全要素生产率变化及其影响因素分析,探求我国沿海国家级经济开发区经济增长的本质,找到提高开发区生产效率和经济质量的对策。
在概述国家级经济开发区的发展状况的基础上,首先采用随机前沿面(SFA)方法,综合考虑我国沿海国家级经济技术开发区的实际发展情况和评价数据的可获得性,通过设置四个情景,分别选取国内生产总值、工业总产值、税收和进出口总额作为输出指标对沿海国家级经济开发区的技术效率进行了评价。接着采用非参数的Malmquist指数模型法,基于2006-2008年31个国家级开发区的地区生产总值、劳动力人数、资本投入以及工业用地面积等输入输出指标数据,对中国沿海国家级经济开发区全要素生产率变化进行测度研究。然后采用机器学习中的随机森林(RFA)算法,基于2007年及2008年中国沿海经济开发区的经济社会发展统计数据,分别以国家级经济开发区的技术效率和全要素生产率为因变量,以影响开发区生产效率的各个因素为自变量,分析确定不同经济社会等因素对沿海经济开发区效率的相对影响程度大小。最后以洋浦经济开发区为例,在总结其“十一五”经济发展现状的基础上,对其“十二五”的经济发展规模进行了预测研究;并结合我国沿海经济开发区的技术效率、全要素生产率的测度及其影响因素分析结果,提出了“十二五”期间洋浦经济开发区应该采取的提高生产效率的具体措施。
After 20 years of development and construction, national development zones are playing important role in promoting regional economic development, expand opening up, attracting large multinational investment projects and formation of industrial agglomeration. However, with the strengthening of economic globalization, the international transfer of industry expansion, the formation of a new continued and deepened international division of labor, especially in post-crisis era, national economic development zones are facing the challenges such as bottlenecks highlighted, homogenization of the industrial structure and weakening of the advantages of policy. Under this international and domestic environment, to achieve good, coordinated and sustainable development, national economic development zones must adjust the economic structure, improve production efficiency, and change the mode of economic development to improve the quality of the development model.
This thesis put the development efficiency as the focus of the study. With calculating the technical efficiency and total factor productivity change and its impact factors, the nature of economic growth was pursuit. Furthermore, the ways to improve the quality of efficiency and economy were put forward.
Based on the development of national economic development zones, by setting the four scenarios, we use stochastic frontier methods to evaluate the technical efficiency of national economic development zones with GDP, industrial output, export and taxes as indicators. Then, using non-parametric Malmquist index model method, based on the regional GDP, labor force, capital investment and the industrial land area of the 31 national development zones, total factor productivity were evaluated. Then with the random forests machine learning algorithm, based on the economic and social development statistical data in 2007 and 2008, the relative efficiency of different factors on the technical efficiency and total factor productivity were analyzed with technical efficiency and total factor productivity as dependent variable and other various factors as independent variables. Finally, as an exmaple, the Yangpu Economic Development Zone’s economic amount was predicted with several methods. Last combined with China's coastal economic development zone of technical efficiency, total factor productivity measure and its impact factor analysis; we proposed the concrete measures to improve production efficiency of Yangpu Economic Development Zone.
本文把沿海国家级开发区的“发展效率”作为研究的重点,力图通过技术效率和全要素生产率变化及其影响因素分析,探求我国沿海国家级经济开发区经济增长的本质,找到提高开发区生产效率和经济质量的对策。
在概述国家级经济开发区的发展状况的基础上,首先采用随机前沿面(SFA)方法,综合考虑我国沿海国家级经济技术开发区的实际发展情况和评价数据的可获得性,通过设置四个情景,分别选取国内生产总值、工业总产值、税收和进出口总额作为输出指标对沿海国家级经济开发区的技术效率进行了评价。接着采用非参数的Malmquist指数模型法,基于2006-2008年31个国家级开发区的地区生产总值、劳动力人数、资本投入以及工业用地面积等输入输出指标数据,对中国沿海国家级经济开发区全要素生产率变化进行测度研究。然后采用机器学习中的随机森林(RFA)算法,基于2007年及2008年中国沿海经济开发区的经济社会发展统计数据,分别以国家级经济开发区的技术效率和全要素生产率为因变量,以影响开发区生产效率的各个因素为自变量,分析确定不同经济社会等因素对沿海经济开发区效率的相对影响程度大小。最后以洋浦经济开发区为例,在总结其“十一五”经济发展现状的基础上,对其“十二五”的经济发展规模进行了预测研究;并结合我国沿海经济开发区的技术效率、全要素生产率的测度及其影响因素分析结果,提出了“十二五”期间洋浦经济开发区应该采取的提高生产效率的具体措施。
After 20 years of development and construction, national development zones are playing important role in promoting regional economic development, expand opening up, attracting large multinational investment projects and formation of industrial agglomeration. However, with the strengthening of economic globalization, the international transfer of industry expansion, the formation of a new continued and deepened international division of labor, especially in post-crisis era, national economic development zones are facing the challenges such as bottlenecks highlighted, homogenization of the industrial structure and weakening of the advantages of policy. Under this international and domestic environment, to achieve good, coordinated and sustainable development, national economic development zones must adjust the economic structure, improve production efficiency, and change the mode of economic development to improve the quality of the development model.
This thesis put the development efficiency as the focus of the study. With calculating the technical efficiency and total factor productivity change and its impact factors, the nature of economic growth was pursuit. Furthermore, the ways to improve the quality of efficiency and economy were put forward.
Based on the development of national economic development zones, by setting the four scenarios, we use stochastic frontier methods to evaluate the technical efficiency of national economic development zones with GDP, industrial output, export and taxes as indicators. Then, using non-parametric Malmquist index model method, based on the regional GDP, labor force, capital investment and the industrial land area of the 31 national development zones, total factor productivity were evaluated. Then with the random forests machine learning algorithm, based on the economic and social development statistical data in 2007 and 2008, the relative efficiency of different factors on the technical efficiency and total factor productivity were analyzed with technical efficiency and total factor productivity as dependent variable and other various factors as independent variables. Finally, as an exmaple, the Yangpu Economic Development Zone’s economic amount was predicted with several methods. Last combined with China's coastal economic development zone of technical efficiency, total factor productivity measure and its impact factor analysis; we proposed the concrete measures to improve production efficiency of Yangpu Economic Development Zone.
引文
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