城市房地产市场健康发展综合评价体系研究
摘要
房地产市场的健康发展,关系到国家的金融安全,更关系到国民经济的健康、可持续发展。健康发展的房地产市场应与其所处的社会环境、自然环境相适应,应在结构、规模、价格方面与城市总体经济水平相协调。本研究以分析房地产市场的泡沫、投资效率和可持续发展为基础,从这三方面筛选指标构建了房地产市场健康发展综合评价指标体系,涵盖了房地产市场的众多影响因素。
本论文运用模糊层次分析法、主成分分析法、循环修正评价方法对中国35个大中城市的泡沫程度进行了评价,发现中国房地产市场的泡沫已经形成,并与城市的经济发达程度、城市的地域分布存在一定关系。
之后运用DEA方法对35个大中城市的房地产投资效率进行了评价。通过对35个大中城市进行实证分析,研究了我国房地产市场投入产出效率。研究发现,经济发达的城市效率较高,如四个直辖市均达到DEA有效水平。但大多数城市均存在投入过剩或产出不足的问题。
论文同时运用回归分析方法,选取房地产市场发展的代理变量作为因变量,选取房地产市场可持续发展的重要影响因素作为自变量,以35个大中城市的数据为基础拟合出各个城市的理论房地产销售额,然后通过实际销售额与理论销售额的差额,计算出残差作为房地产市场可持续发展能力的评价指标。
最后,在对城市房地产的泡沫、效率和可持续情况进行了评价和计量的基础上,以评价过后泡沫值、效率值、可持续发展程度作为城市健康发展评价程度模型的评价指标,采用欧式距离指标法构建房地产市场健康程度评价模型。
综合分析发现,我国房地产市场已经存在一定程度的泡沫,而且投资效率不高,房地产市场缺乏可持续性。政府应制定相应政策,调整市场环境,引导市场变化,制止盲目投资,避免社会资源浪费,从而进一步提升房地产市场运作效率,促进其持续健康发展。
The healthy development of the real estate market, related to the country's financial security, is also related to the national economy, health and sustainable development. The healthy development of the real estate market should live with their social environment, the natural environment and adapt to be in the structure, size, price and city level of coordination of the overall economy.This study is based on the analysis of the real estate market bubble, investment efficiency and sustainable development, from these three aspects of screening indicators for the healthy development of the real estate market, to build a comprehensive evaluation index system, covering a number of factors of the real estate market.
The research group using fuzzy analytic hierarchy process, principal component analysis, circulating revised evaluation method in 35 large and medium cities in China, conducted an evaluation of the bubble and found that China's real estate market bubble has been formed, and there is a certain relationship with the city's economically developed degree and the city's geographical distribution.
DEA method has been used to evaluate in real estate investment efficiency in 35 large and medium cities.According to the empirical analysis in 35 large and medium cities, the input-output efficiency of China's real estate market has been studied. The study found that the more economically developed cities,the higher of the efficiency, such as the four municipalities have reached an effective level of DEA. However,in most cities there is an excess input or output shortage problem.
Using regression analysis method, select agency variables of the real estate market development as the dependent variable, select the important factors of sustainable development of the real estate market as independent variables, based on the data from 35 cities to fit the theory of real estate sales of various cities, and then through the difference between the actual and theory sales to calculate the residuals as the real estate market evaluation of indicators for sustainable development capacity.
Finally, on the basis of evaluation and measurement was carried out in urban real estate bubble, efficiency and sustainability, to assess the foam value, efficiency value, and the degree of sustainable development after the evaluation as an evaluation index of the degree of the urban healthy development model, of using Euclidean distance indicator method to build health of the real estate market evaluation model.
A comprehensive analysis found that China's real estate market has been a degree of foam, and the efficiency of investment is obviously insufficient, the Government should formulate corresponding policies, adjust the market environment, and guide changes in the market to prevent blind investment and avoid a waste of social resources, so as to further enhance the real estate market operational efficiency, to promote its sustained and healthy development.
本论文运用模糊层次分析法、主成分分析法、循环修正评价方法对中国35个大中城市的泡沫程度进行了评价,发现中国房地产市场的泡沫已经形成,并与城市的经济发达程度、城市的地域分布存在一定关系。
之后运用DEA方法对35个大中城市的房地产投资效率进行了评价。通过对35个大中城市进行实证分析,研究了我国房地产市场投入产出效率。研究发现,经济发达的城市效率较高,如四个直辖市均达到DEA有效水平。但大多数城市均存在投入过剩或产出不足的问题。
论文同时运用回归分析方法,选取房地产市场发展的代理变量作为因变量,选取房地产市场可持续发展的重要影响因素作为自变量,以35个大中城市的数据为基础拟合出各个城市的理论房地产销售额,然后通过实际销售额与理论销售额的差额,计算出残差作为房地产市场可持续发展能力的评价指标。
最后,在对城市房地产的泡沫、效率和可持续情况进行了评价和计量的基础上,以评价过后泡沫值、效率值、可持续发展程度作为城市健康发展评价程度模型的评价指标,采用欧式距离指标法构建房地产市场健康程度评价模型。
综合分析发现,我国房地产市场已经存在一定程度的泡沫,而且投资效率不高,房地产市场缺乏可持续性。政府应制定相应政策,调整市场环境,引导市场变化,制止盲目投资,避免社会资源浪费,从而进一步提升房地产市场运作效率,促进其持续健康发展。
The healthy development of the real estate market, related to the country's financial security, is also related to the national economy, health and sustainable development. The healthy development of the real estate market should live with their social environment, the natural environment and adapt to be in the structure, size, price and city level of coordination of the overall economy.This study is based on the analysis of the real estate market bubble, investment efficiency and sustainable development, from these three aspects of screening indicators for the healthy development of the real estate market, to build a comprehensive evaluation index system, covering a number of factors of the real estate market.
The research group using fuzzy analytic hierarchy process, principal component analysis, circulating revised evaluation method in 35 large and medium cities in China, conducted an evaluation of the bubble and found that China's real estate market bubble has been formed, and there is a certain relationship with the city's economically developed degree and the city's geographical distribution.
DEA method has been used to evaluate in real estate investment efficiency in 35 large and medium cities.According to the empirical analysis in 35 large and medium cities, the input-output efficiency of China's real estate market has been studied. The study found that the more economically developed cities,the higher of the efficiency, such as the four municipalities have reached an effective level of DEA. However,in most cities there is an excess input or output shortage problem.
Using regression analysis method, select agency variables of the real estate market development as the dependent variable, select the important factors of sustainable development of the real estate market as independent variables, based on the data from 35 cities to fit the theory of real estate sales of various cities, and then through the difference between the actual and theory sales to calculate the residuals as the real estate market evaluation of indicators for sustainable development capacity.
Finally, on the basis of evaluation and measurement was carried out in urban real estate bubble, efficiency and sustainability, to assess the foam value, efficiency value, and the degree of sustainable development after the evaluation as an evaluation index of the degree of the urban healthy development model, of using Euclidean distance indicator method to build health of the real estate market evaluation model.
A comprehensive analysis found that China's real estate market has been a degree of foam, and the efficiency of investment is obviously insufficient, the Government should formulate corresponding policies, adjust the market environment, and guide changes in the market to prevent blind investment and avoid a waste of social resources, so as to further enhance the real estate market operational efficiency, to promote its sustained and healthy development.
引文
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