我国光伏发电项目规模化发展研究
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摘要
经济高速增长带来能源的加速消耗,我国电力消费市场面临着巨大的压力。可再生能源发电技术是解决我国电力紧缺问题的重要途径,与其他技术类型相比我国光伏发电项目发展非常缓慢,远落后于世界平均水平,主要原因在于：一是缺乏较为科学的光伏发电项目综合效益评价方法及效益分配机制,项目的利益相关者未能意识到光伏发电项目的价值收益,或者不能获得合理的价值收益：二是我国尚未构建完善的光伏产业链,企业发展无序,产业规模不经济,技术缺乏合理的发展路径：三是我国市场激励体系不健全,光伏发电项目成熟的市场应用模式亟待建立。
本文利用定性分析和定量分析相结合的方法对我国光伏发电项目综合效益进行了计算和评价,对光伏发电项目的产业、技术及市场发展路径、策略进行了分析和实证研究,并对未来光伏发电项目规模化发展进行了仿真预测,主要内容概括如下：
一是光伏发电项目综合效益评价。根据项目评价理论及光伏发电项目的特点,确立了光伏发电项目综合效益评价方法,构建了光伏发电项目综合效益评价指标体系并研究了评价指标的来源,应用利益相关者分析理论分析了光伏发电项目各利益相关者的效益需求,建立了光伏发电项目利益相关者效益分配模型,并进行了实证研究。
二是我国光伏发电项目规模化化发展的产业和技术路径研究。依据产业链管理理论对我国光伏产业链上各环节价值进行了分析,在此基础上应用博弈论模型对我国光伏产业链整合的必要性进行了研究,构建了光伏产业链横向和纵向整合分析模型,提出了我国光伏发电项目的产业链整合路径；应用DEA法对我国光伏企业的规模效率和技术效率进行了分析,进而判断我国光伏产业的规模效率及技术发展水平,提出了我国光伏产业经济规模及技术的发展路径。
三是我国光伏发电项目规模化发展的市场策略研究。根据对国内外激励策略及其作用效果的对比分析,应用进化博弈论构建了我国光伏发电项目市场激励补贴比例分析模型,提出了市场激励策略；基于光伏发电项目不同市场应用类型的技术特点和功能特性,提出了我国光伏发电项目规模化发展的市场应用策略。
四是我国光伏发电项目规模化发展的仿真预测。根据本文提出的产业、技术路径和市场策略,并借鉴发达国家光伏发电项目发展的类似参数,利用1stopt软件仿真了未来我国光伏发电项目规模化发展的情景,预测了我国光伏发电项目规模的中长期发展轨迹。
Rapid economic growth brings to energy consumption's acceleration, and electricity consumption market in China is facing tremendous pressure. Renewable energy generation technologies to solve the problem of power shortage in China are important ways. Compared with other types of technologies, China's photovoltaic generation project development is too slower, far behind the world average rate, mainly due to:a more comprehensive scientific evaluation method and a more reasonable distribution mechanism are lacked, and PV project stakeholders fail to realize the overall project value, or can not get reasonable benefits; Second, a complete industry chain hasn't yet built, and business development is always disordered; Third, China market incentive systems and regulatory systems are not perfect.
In this dissertation, qualitative and quantitative analysis methods are used, which includs photovoltaic generation project comprehensive effect evaluation method, completed way of the photovoltaic industry, technology and market development path and strategies, empirical analysis and the prediction of future scale of photovoltaic generation project development. The main content can be summarized as follows:
First, China's overall effect evaluation of photovoltaic generation project is finished. According to the project evaluation theory and photovoltaic generation projects'own characteristics, the combined evaluation effect model of photovoltaic generation project is established, and integrated photovoltaic generation project evaluation index system is built. Benefits and behavior influence of all stakeholders of the photovoltaic generation project are analysed in use of stakeholder analysis theory.
Second, China's photovoltaic generation project scale development paths of industry and technology are researched. The dissertation builds China's PV industry value chain. On this basis, game theory model is applied to prove the need to build the photovoltaic industry chain of horizontal and vertical models. DEA method is used in China's photovoltaic industry scale and technical efficiency of enterprises is analyzed. The dissertation determines the size of China's PV industry efficiency and technology development, and proposes a more scientific photovoltaic technology development path.
Third, marketing strategy analysis of China's photovoltaic project scale development is finished. The dissertation compares domestic and foreign policies, then applies evolutionary game theory to build market incentives subsidy model. The strategies of market-based incentives and market adoption are proposed.
Fourth, China's photovoltaic generation project scale prediction is finished. Using simulation software, the dissertation programms photovoltaic power generation project development scenarios, and determines the size of the change rate, and predicts the photovoltaic generation project market saturation scale.
本文利用定性分析和定量分析相结合的方法对我国光伏发电项目综合效益进行了计算和评价,对光伏发电项目的产业、技术及市场发展路径、策略进行了分析和实证研究,并对未来光伏发电项目规模化发展进行了仿真预测,主要内容概括如下：
一是光伏发电项目综合效益评价。根据项目评价理论及光伏发电项目的特点,确立了光伏发电项目综合效益评价方法,构建了光伏发电项目综合效益评价指标体系并研究了评价指标的来源,应用利益相关者分析理论分析了光伏发电项目各利益相关者的效益需求,建立了光伏发电项目利益相关者效益分配模型,并进行了实证研究。
二是我国光伏发电项目规模化化发展的产业和技术路径研究。依据产业链管理理论对我国光伏产业链上各环节价值进行了分析,在此基础上应用博弈论模型对我国光伏产业链整合的必要性进行了研究,构建了光伏产业链横向和纵向整合分析模型,提出了我国光伏发电项目的产业链整合路径；应用DEA法对我国光伏企业的规模效率和技术效率进行了分析,进而判断我国光伏产业的规模效率及技术发展水平,提出了我国光伏产业经济规模及技术的发展路径。
三是我国光伏发电项目规模化发展的市场策略研究。根据对国内外激励策略及其作用效果的对比分析,应用进化博弈论构建了我国光伏发电项目市场激励补贴比例分析模型,提出了市场激励策略；基于光伏发电项目不同市场应用类型的技术特点和功能特性,提出了我国光伏发电项目规模化发展的市场应用策略。
四是我国光伏发电项目规模化发展的仿真预测。根据本文提出的产业、技术路径和市场策略,并借鉴发达国家光伏发电项目发展的类似参数,利用1stopt软件仿真了未来我国光伏发电项目规模化发展的情景,预测了我国光伏发电项目规模的中长期发展轨迹。
Rapid economic growth brings to energy consumption's acceleration, and electricity consumption market in China is facing tremendous pressure. Renewable energy generation technologies to solve the problem of power shortage in China are important ways. Compared with other types of technologies, China's photovoltaic generation project development is too slower, far behind the world average rate, mainly due to:a more comprehensive scientific evaluation method and a more reasonable distribution mechanism are lacked, and PV project stakeholders fail to realize the overall project value, or can not get reasonable benefits; Second, a complete industry chain hasn't yet built, and business development is always disordered; Third, China market incentive systems and regulatory systems are not perfect.
In this dissertation, qualitative and quantitative analysis methods are used, which includs photovoltaic generation project comprehensive effect evaluation method, completed way of the photovoltaic industry, technology and market development path and strategies, empirical analysis and the prediction of future scale of photovoltaic generation project development. The main content can be summarized as follows:
First, China's overall effect evaluation of photovoltaic generation project is finished. According to the project evaluation theory and photovoltaic generation projects'own characteristics, the combined evaluation effect model of photovoltaic generation project is established, and integrated photovoltaic generation project evaluation index system is built. Benefits and behavior influence of all stakeholders of the photovoltaic generation project are analysed in use of stakeholder analysis theory.
Second, China's photovoltaic generation project scale development paths of industry and technology are researched. The dissertation builds China's PV industry value chain. On this basis, game theory model is applied to prove the need to build the photovoltaic industry chain of horizontal and vertical models. DEA method is used in China's photovoltaic industry scale and technical efficiency of enterprises is analyzed. The dissertation determines the size of China's PV industry efficiency and technology development, and proposes a more scientific photovoltaic technology development path.
Third, marketing strategy analysis of China's photovoltaic project scale development is finished. The dissertation compares domestic and foreign policies, then applies evolutionary game theory to build market incentives subsidy model. The strategies of market-based incentives and market adoption are proposed.
Fourth, China's photovoltaic generation project scale prediction is finished. Using simulation software, the dissertation programms photovoltaic power generation project development scenarios, and determines the size of the change rate, and predicts the photovoltaic generation project market saturation scale.
引文
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