创业投资生命周期决策方法及应用研究
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摘要
世界经济发展已经步入知识经济时代，在这一时代里，知识密集型产业已成为全部产业的核心，成为一个国家取得长期竞争优势的决定因素。大量理论研究和经验资料表明：技术进步是经济可持续性增长的关键推动力量。而技术进步转化为生产力的关键在于一个以创业投资体制为核心的支持系统。但一直以来，创业投资本身所具有的高风险性、高不确定性以及各个阶段中风险的复杂变化，使得创业投资的成功率一直很难提高。因此，如何以生命周期的思想为出发点，科学地认识创业投资中的风险，合理地规避风险；如何针对不同的投资阶段选用合理的评价方法来挑选极具潜力的投资项目，并对该投资项目进行交易合同的构造已成为创业投资研究中的难点和热点。
本论文首先对创业投资生命周期各个阶段的全过程进行了研究，分析了其中各个阶段的风险特性，指出了风险在各个阶段的变化情况。然后，着重研究了创业投资分阶段的项目评价方法。通过分析项目评价指标在各个阶段的差异，在Tyebjee和Bruno创业投资评价指标体系的基础上构建了两个分别适用于种子期和非种子期的创业投资评价指标体系，并引入可拓评价方法建立了两个创业投资评价模型。与传统的评价方法相比，可拓评价方法使创业投资项目的未来成长性所带来的价值得到了充分地考虑，从而使创业项目得到合理的动态评价。
论文进一步分析了当创业项目通过评审后，投资双方交易合同的构造。在分析投资工具对投资双方的激励作用的基础上，指出混合工具是创业投资双方较好的选择。然后，论文研究了创业投资决策的定价方法。在分析了国内目前具有代表性的两种定价方法，即美式期权定价方法和欧式期权定价方法的基础上，研究了创业投资各个阶段的期权特性。提出单纯的利用任何一种期权方法都不能很好地解决定价问题，而应该在不同的阶段采用不同的期权定价方法。论文接着建立了两个分别适用于种子期和导入期的欧式期权定价模型以及成长期和成熟期的美式期权定价模型。
最后，在实例研究的基础上，论文验证了评价和定价方法的可行性，并提出一些可供创业投资家和创业企业家进行创业投资时的策略性建议。
The world economic development has entered the knowledge economic era. In this era, the knowledge-dense industry has become the core of all industries, which are the determined factors for a country to achieve competent advantages in a long run. A great deal of researches and experiences has shown that it is technology progress that is the key power to promote the sustained economic increase. The key that technology progress transfer into productivity lies in a system in which venture capital is the most kernel part. For a long time, because of venture capital's tremendous risk and high uncertain and the risks complex change in every stage, however, the success ratio of venture capital is always very low. Therefore, how to understand scientific the risk of venture capital, evade risk rationally and select potential project aim at different investment stages, how to constitute contracts for investment projects has become the difficulties and hotspots in the research of venture capital.
This paper firstly study the whole processes of venture capital and study the risk features of every stage, in the meantime the changes of every stage's risk have been pointed out. Furthermore, the divided period estimation methods have been deeply studied. After the discrepancies of every stage have been analyzed, two index systems for estimation have been introduced on the base of Tyebjee and Bruno's index system. Then the Extenics has been applied to build up two estimation models. Compared with the traditional estimation methods, Extenics method can fully calculate the value brought from development features in venture capital, which can obtain the reasonable dramatic result in the decision-making of venture capital.
Furthermore, this paper analyzes the constitution of transaction contracts when the projects of venture capital have been estimated. On the base of the tools' incentive function to both sides of investment, it is pointed out that mixed tools are the better choice for venture capitalists and enterprisers. Then the pricing methods in the decision-making of venture capital have been studied. On the base of the analysis of two major pricing methods, it is put forward that only one optional method can't solve the pricing problems rightly for the optional discrepancies in every stage. Different methods should be selected to solve the pricing problems that are in different stages. Then two optional pricing models are constructed, one of which can solve the investment pricing of seed stage and start-up stage rightly, the other of which is suitable to the investment pricing of expansion stage and mature stage.
Finally, several strategic suggestions have been put forward for venture capitalists and enterprisers on the basis of application of models.
本论文首先对创业投资生命周期各个阶段的全过程进行了研究，分析了其中各个阶段的风险特性，指出了风险在各个阶段的变化情况。然后，着重研究了创业投资分阶段的项目评价方法。通过分析项目评价指标在各个阶段的差异，在Tyebjee和Bruno创业投资评价指标体系的基础上构建了两个分别适用于种子期和非种子期的创业投资评价指标体系，并引入可拓评价方法建立了两个创业投资评价模型。与传统的评价方法相比，可拓评价方法使创业投资项目的未来成长性所带来的价值得到了充分地考虑，从而使创业项目得到合理的动态评价。
论文进一步分析了当创业项目通过评审后，投资双方交易合同的构造。在分析投资工具对投资双方的激励作用的基础上，指出混合工具是创业投资双方较好的选择。然后，论文研究了创业投资决策的定价方法。在分析了国内目前具有代表性的两种定价方法，即美式期权定价方法和欧式期权定价方法的基础上，研究了创业投资各个阶段的期权特性。提出单纯的利用任何一种期权方法都不能很好地解决定价问题，而应该在不同的阶段采用不同的期权定价方法。论文接着建立了两个分别适用于种子期和导入期的欧式期权定价模型以及成长期和成熟期的美式期权定价模型。
最后，在实例研究的基础上，论文验证了评价和定价方法的可行性，并提出一些可供创业投资家和创业企业家进行创业投资时的策略性建议。
The world economic development has entered the knowledge economic era. In this era, the knowledge-dense industry has become the core of all industries, which are the determined factors for a country to achieve competent advantages in a long run. A great deal of researches and experiences has shown that it is technology progress that is the key power to promote the sustained economic increase. The key that technology progress transfer into productivity lies in a system in which venture capital is the most kernel part. For a long time, because of venture capital's tremendous risk and high uncertain and the risks complex change in every stage, however, the success ratio of venture capital is always very low. Therefore, how to understand scientific the risk of venture capital, evade risk rationally and select potential project aim at different investment stages, how to constitute contracts for investment projects has become the difficulties and hotspots in the research of venture capital.
This paper firstly study the whole processes of venture capital and study the risk features of every stage, in the meantime the changes of every stage's risk have been pointed out. Furthermore, the divided period estimation methods have been deeply studied. After the discrepancies of every stage have been analyzed, two index systems for estimation have been introduced on the base of Tyebjee and Bruno's index system. Then the Extenics has been applied to build up two estimation models. Compared with the traditional estimation methods, Extenics method can fully calculate the value brought from development features in venture capital, which can obtain the reasonable dramatic result in the decision-making of venture capital.
Furthermore, this paper analyzes the constitution of transaction contracts when the projects of venture capital have been estimated. On the base of the tools' incentive function to both sides of investment, it is pointed out that mixed tools are the better choice for venture capitalists and enterprisers. Then the pricing methods in the decision-making of venture capital have been studied. On the base of the analysis of two major pricing methods, it is put forward that only one optional method can't solve the pricing problems rightly for the optional discrepancies in every stage. Different methods should be selected to solve the pricing problems that are in different stages. Then two optional pricing models are constructed, one of which can solve the investment pricing of seed stage and start-up stage rightly, the other of which is suitable to the investment pricing of expansion stage and mature stage.
Finally, several strategic suggestions have been put forward for venture capitalists and enterprisers on the basis of application of models.
引文
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[2] Vesa Kanniainen, Christian Keuschnigg. The optional portfolio of start-up firms in venture capital finance [J]. Journal of Business Venturing, 2002,2(3):1-17.
[3] Sophie Manigart, Koen De Waele, Mike Wright, Ken Robbie. Determinants of required return in venture capital investments: a five-country study[J]. Journal of Business Venturing, 2002,3(1):211-236.
[4] Frederick H. Mull. Towards a positive theory of venture capital. Dissertation Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of the University of Georgia in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the the Degree Doctor of Philosophy,Athens,Georgia,1990.
[5] Jeffrey J.Trester, Venture capital contracting under asymmetric information[J]. Journal of Banking and Finance, Vol,22,1998,675-699.
[6] Fiet,James Owen. Managing investments in specific information: a comparison of business angles and venture capital firm (Risk Management). Dissertation for Ph..D. Degree, Texas A﹠M University, 1991.
[7] Al-Suwailem, Sami. Does venture capital financing make a difference? (Entrepreneurship). Dissertation for Ph.D. Degree, Washington University,1995.
[8] Amit,R,J.Brander and C.Zott. Why Do Venture Capital Exist? Theory and Canadian Evidence [J]. Journal of Business Venturing, 1998,(13):441-446.
[9] Shepherd D A. Venture Capitalists' Assessment of New Venture Survival [J]. Management Science, 1999,45(5)
[10] Gompers,P. and J.Lerner. An Analysis of Compensation in the U.S. Venture Capital Partnership [J]. Journal of Financial Economics, 1999,(5):3-44.
[11] Stephen Prowse. Angel Investors and the Market for Angel Investments[J]. Journal of Banking and Finance, 22,1998
[12] Andrew Capon. Exit Stratagem for Entrepreneurs[J]. Global Investor, Nov 1997,107.
[13] Venture Capital, High Returns and Risky Expectation[M].BRW,Sep.15,2000.
[14] Shepherd D A. Venture Capitalists' Assessment of New Venture Survival[J].Management Science,1999,45(5).
[15] Mike Landabaso,The Promotion of Innovation in Regional Policy: Proposals for a Regional Innovation Strategy ,Entrepreneurship and Regional Development,Vol.9, No.1,1997.
[16] Bygrave.W. Venture Capital at the Crossroads[M],Harvard Business School Press, 1992.
[17] Tyebjee T T, Bruno A V. A model of venture capitalist activity[J].Management Science,1984,30(9):1051-1066.
[18] Robinson R. Emerging Strategies in the venture capital industry[J].Journal of Business Venturing,1987,2(1):53-57.
[19] Khan A M. Assessing venture capital investments with noncompensatory behavioral decision model[J]. Journal of Business Venturing,1987,2(3):193-205.
[20] Paul.Gompers Josh. Lerner. An analysis of compensation in the US venture capital partnership[J]., Journal of Financial Economics, Issue 51,1999,3-44.
[21] 任玉珑，米旭明. 创业投资生命周期决策方法研究. 中国软科学. 2003.2
[22] 王松奇，李扬，王国刚.中国创业投资体系研究(上)[J].财贸经济，1999,1,23-33.
[23] 王松奇，李扬，王国刚.中国创业投资体系研究(下)[J].财贸经济，1999,2,28-36.
[24] 范柏乃，沈荣芳，马庆国.中国风险投资供给机制与发展策略研究[J].上海交通大学学报(社科版)，No.1,21-26,2001.
[25] 陈永庆，王浣尘. 期权理念在风险投资决策中的应用[J]. 管理工程学报， 2001，15（2）：67-69
[26] 谈毅，冯宗宪. 高新技术产业风险投资的期权特征与经济评价[J]. 科研管理，1999，20（3）：91-96.
[27] 俞自白，李松涛，赵荣信.风险投资理论与实践[M].上海：上海财经大学出版社，2001.
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