模具企业风险分析与管理
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摘要
随着科技的飞速发展和人们生活节奏的不断加快，社会环境瞬息万变，各大型工程项目所涉及的不确定因素日益增多，企业面临的风险也越来越多，风险所造成的损失越来越大。这些都促使科研人员和实际管理人员从理论和实践上重视对大型项目的风险管理。
在经济全球化的今天，规避风险对制造商是非常重要的。事实上，风险并非无法避免。关键是如何预测风险、管理风险，通过对风险的识别和衡量，采用合理的经济和技术手段对风险加以处理，以最小的成本获的最大的保障。
在模具制造业中，同样存在着风险，甚至风险往往比其它制造业更大。模具制造业属于单件小批量生产，每一个项目的投入少则几十万，多则几百万。每个项目的失败都将为公司带来极大的损失。究竟如何规避风险，利用风险已经成为模具制造业一个不可延缓的课题。通过项目管理学的方法对制造项目加以管理，并对项目可能出现的风险进行预测、分析和研究，找出规避和降低风险的方法，对模具制造业将有很大的参考价值。
论文第一章主要讲述当前模具制造的现状及特点。作者指出模具行业是一个技术含量较高的行业，对模具制造项目风险性的深入研究，是为了降低模具制造过程中产生的风险，具有重要的现实意义和经济效益。
而第二章详细分析和讨论了企业模具制造项目风险。首先介绍了单个企业模具制造项目的工作流程和存在的主要的风险。通过运用层次分析法、等风险法和决策树法对模具企业中实际存在的风险进行了详细的分析。在第二章对模具制造项目风险分析研究的基础上，第三章讲述了对模具制造项目中的风险管理的应用，以及对项目风险进行规避和控制。
而第四和第五章主要针对网络化模具制造项目进行了风险的分析和管理，通过运用网络化制造的方法，减少了企业对设备的投入，加快了产品的制造周期，实现了网络化企业间部分资源和部分技术的共享，促进了模具企业的发展。
With the development of the flying technology and the quick living rhythm of people, every large engineering involves more and more indetermination factors, which results in more and more damages. These urge the science researchers and the actual managers to look up on large items with the theory and practice methods.
On today's economic world, evading risk is count for much to manufacturing. In fact, the risk is not unavoidable. The key is how to predict risk, manage risk and scale risk. Adopt economy and technique ways to deal with the risk, and get biggest to guarantee with the least.
In the mould &die manufacturing industry, also exists risk, even the risk is usually larger than other manufacturing industry. The mould &die manufacturing industry belongs to the input for small batch quantity producing, each item sometimes is much than several 100000 RMB and sometimes much than several million RMB. The failure of each item will bring the great damage to company. Actually how to evade the risk and make use of the risk have already become a urgent lesson for the mould & die manufacturing industry. Through the management method of item to manage manufacturing item and estimate, analysis and study the risk that the item may appear, we can find out the method to evade and lower the risk, which will have lots of values to mould &die manufacturing industry.
First, chapter 1 of this Thesis tells of present conditions and characteristics about mould &die manufacturing. The author points out that mould &die profession is full of techniques. In order to lower the mould &die manufacture process risk, we should study deeply into the research, it has realistic meanings .
Chapter 2 discusses and analyzes detailedly the risk of mould &die manufacturing. At the beginning it introduces the workflow of single mould &die enterprise and the main existing risks. Through making use of the examples including the administrative levels analysis method, equal risk chart method and decision tree method, we could analyze detailedly the risk of mould &die manufacturing. On the foundation of chapter 2 towards mould &die risk's analysis and study, chapter 3 relates to the application of risk management towards mould &die manufacturing, and
to evade and control the project risk.
The chapter 4 and chapter 5 discuss and analyze detailedly the risk of network mould &die manufacturing. Using network-manufacturing methods enterprise can reduce the inputting equipments, quick the product manufacturing cycle, realizes resources sharing. Promote the development of the mould &die enterprise.
在经济全球化的今天，规避风险对制造商是非常重要的。事实上，风险并非无法避免。关键是如何预测风险、管理风险，通过对风险的识别和衡量，采用合理的经济和技术手段对风险加以处理，以最小的成本获的最大的保障。
在模具制造业中，同样存在着风险，甚至风险往往比其它制造业更大。模具制造业属于单件小批量生产，每一个项目的投入少则几十万，多则几百万。每个项目的失败都将为公司带来极大的损失。究竟如何规避风险，利用风险已经成为模具制造业一个不可延缓的课题。通过项目管理学的方法对制造项目加以管理，并对项目可能出现的风险进行预测、分析和研究，找出规避和降低风险的方法，对模具制造业将有很大的参考价值。
论文第一章主要讲述当前模具制造的现状及特点。作者指出模具行业是一个技术含量较高的行业，对模具制造项目风险性的深入研究，是为了降低模具制造过程中产生的风险，具有重要的现实意义和经济效益。
而第二章详细分析和讨论了企业模具制造项目风险。首先介绍了单个企业模具制造项目的工作流程和存在的主要的风险。通过运用层次分析法、等风险法和决策树法对模具企业中实际存在的风险进行了详细的分析。在第二章对模具制造项目风险分析研究的基础上，第三章讲述了对模具制造项目中的风险管理的应用，以及对项目风险进行规避和控制。
而第四和第五章主要针对网络化模具制造项目进行了风险的分析和管理，通过运用网络化制造的方法，减少了企业对设备的投入，加快了产品的制造周期，实现了网络化企业间部分资源和部分技术的共享，促进了模具企业的发展。
With the development of the flying technology and the quick living rhythm of people, every large engineering involves more and more indetermination factors, which results in more and more damages. These urge the science researchers and the actual managers to look up on large items with the theory and practice methods.
On today's economic world, evading risk is count for much to manufacturing. In fact, the risk is not unavoidable. The key is how to predict risk, manage risk and scale risk. Adopt economy and technique ways to deal with the risk, and get biggest to guarantee with the least.
In the mould &die manufacturing industry, also exists risk, even the risk is usually larger than other manufacturing industry. The mould &die manufacturing industry belongs to the input for small batch quantity producing, each item sometimes is much than several 100000 RMB and sometimes much than several million RMB. The failure of each item will bring the great damage to company. Actually how to evade the risk and make use of the risk have already become a urgent lesson for the mould & die manufacturing industry. Through the management method of item to manage manufacturing item and estimate, analysis and study the risk that the item may appear, we can find out the method to evade and lower the risk, which will have lots of values to mould &die manufacturing industry.
First, chapter 1 of this Thesis tells of present conditions and characteristics about mould &die manufacturing. The author points out that mould &die profession is full of techniques. In order to lower the mould &die manufacture process risk, we should study deeply into the research, it has realistic meanings .
Chapter 2 discusses and analyzes detailedly the risk of mould &die manufacturing. At the beginning it introduces the workflow of single mould &die enterprise and the main existing risks. Through making use of the examples including the administrative levels analysis method, equal risk chart method and decision tree method, we could analyze detailedly the risk of mould &die manufacturing. On the foundation of chapter 2 towards mould &die risk's analysis and study, chapter 3 relates to the application of risk management towards mould &die manufacturing, and
to evade and control the project risk.
The chapter 4 and chapter 5 discuss and analyze detailedly the risk of network mould &die manufacturing. Using network-manufacturing methods enterprise can reduce the inputting equipments, quick the product manufacturing cycle, realizes resources sharing. Promote the development of the mould &die enterprise.
引文
[1]李新春，企业联盟与网络，广东人民出版社，2000年．
[2]陈清泰，公司战略联盟组织与运作，中国发展出版社，1999．
[3]James P.Clements，成功的项目管理，机械工业出版社出版，2001．
[4]项目管理协会，技术获取型项目管理，电子工业出版社出版，2001．
[5]邱菀华，项目管理学，科学出版社，2001．
[6]袁义财，项目管理手册，中信出版社，2001．
[7]席相霖，Project 2000项目管理方法和案例，电子工业出版社，2000．
[8]王立文等，现代项目管理基础，北京航空航天大学出版社，1997．
[9]毕星，项目管理，复旦大学出版社，2000．
[10]卢有杰、卢家仪，项目风险管理，1998．
[11](美)阿诺德．M．罗斯金 W．尤金．埃斯特斯，工程项目管理，机械工业出版社，1987．
[12]吴海东，模具企业关键设备更新风险决策研究，广东工业大学硕士学位论文，2002．
[13]苏志龙，模具虚拟企业项目规划研究，广东工业大学博士学位论文，2002．
[14]Kolisch, R., Project Scheduling under Resource Constraints: Efficient Heuristics for Several. Problem Classes. Physica, Heidelberg, Germany. 1995.
[15]Herroenen,W., Van Dommelen, P. and Demeulemeester, E., Project Network Models with Discounted Cash Flows: A Guided Tour through Recent Developments. European Journal of Operational Research, 1997.100,97-121
[16]Hartmann, S., Project Scheduling under Limited Resources: Models,Methods,and Applications, Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical System 478. Springer, Berlin. 1999.
[17]Berson, A. and Smith, S.j.,Data Warehousing, Data Mining & OLAP. Mcgraw-hill Book Companies,Inc.New York. 1997.
[18]Lewicki, R.J., Saunders, D.M. and Minton, J.W. Negotiation. Third Edition. The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. New York. 1999.
[19]Ozdamar, L. And Ulusoy, G.,A survey on the resource-constrained project scheduling problem. IIE Transactions, 1995.27,574-586.
[20]Sprecher, A., Scheduling—Theory, Algorithms and systems. Prentice-Hill, Inc.,
Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey. 1995
[21]Tsang, E., Foundations of Constrained Satisfaction. Academic Press, London. 1993
[22]Van Hentenryck, P., Constraint Satisfaction in Logic Programming. MIT Press, Cambrideg. MA,USA, 1998
[23]Weglarz,J.(ed.), Handbook on Recent Advances in Project Scheduling: Recent Models, Algorithms and Applications. Kluwer Academic Publishers. Massachusetts USA, 1999
[24]Brandon,P., Betts, M. and Wamelink, H., Information technology support to construction desin and production. Computer in Industry. 1998,35(1),1-12
[25]Fischer, M.A., Waugh, L.M. and Axworthy, A., IT support of single project, multi-project and industry-wide integration. Computer in Industry. 1999,35(2),31-45
[26]Ehtamo, H.Kettunen, E., and Hamalainen,R.P., Searching for joint gains in multi-party negotiations. European Journal of Operational Research, 2001,130(1),54-69
[27]Kersten, G., and Noronha, S.J., WWW-based negotiation support: design, implementation, and use Decision Support Ssystems,2001,25(3), 135-154
[28]Yamazaki,Y. and Maeda, J., The SAMRT system: an integrated application of automation and information technology in production process. Computer in Industry. 2000,35(1),87-99
[29]Icmeli, O., Erenguc, S. and Zappe, J.C., Project scheduling Problems: A Survey. International Journal of Production Operational Management. 1998.13,80-93
[30]Sebenius, J.k., negotiation analysis: a characterization and review. Management Science, 1999,38(3), 29-35.
[2]陈清泰，公司战略联盟组织与运作，中国发展出版社，1999．
[3]James P.Clements，成功的项目管理，机械工业出版社出版，2001．
[4]项目管理协会，技术获取型项目管理，电子工业出版社出版，2001．
[5]邱菀华，项目管理学，科学出版社，2001．
[6]袁义财，项目管理手册，中信出版社，2001．
[7]席相霖，Project 2000项目管理方法和案例，电子工业出版社，2000．
[8]王立文等，现代项目管理基础，北京航空航天大学出版社，1997．
[9]毕星，项目管理，复旦大学出版社，2000．
[10]卢有杰、卢家仪，项目风险管理，1998．
[11](美)阿诺德．M．罗斯金 W．尤金．埃斯特斯，工程项目管理，机械工业出版社，1987．
[12]吴海东，模具企业关键设备更新风险决策研究，广东工业大学硕士学位论文，2002．
[13]苏志龙，模具虚拟企业项目规划研究，广东工业大学博士学位论文，2002．
[14]Kolisch, R., Project Scheduling under Resource Constraints: Efficient Heuristics for Several. Problem Classes. Physica, Heidelberg, Germany. 1995.
[15]Herroenen,W., Van Dommelen, P. and Demeulemeester, E., Project Network Models with Discounted Cash Flows: A Guided Tour through Recent Developments. European Journal of Operational Research, 1997.100,97-121
[16]Hartmann, S., Project Scheduling under Limited Resources: Models,Methods,and Applications, Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical System 478. Springer, Berlin. 1999.
[17]Berson, A. and Smith, S.j.,Data Warehousing, Data Mining & OLAP. Mcgraw-hill Book Companies,Inc.New York. 1997.
[18]Lewicki, R.J., Saunders, D.M. and Minton, J.W. Negotiation. Third Edition. The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. New York. 1999.
[19]Ozdamar, L. And Ulusoy, G.,A survey on the resource-constrained project scheduling problem. IIE Transactions, 1995.27,574-586.
[20]Sprecher, A., Scheduling—Theory, Algorithms and systems. Prentice-Hill, Inc.,
Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey. 1995
[21]Tsang, E., Foundations of Constrained Satisfaction. Academic Press, London. 1993
[22]Van Hentenryck, P., Constraint Satisfaction in Logic Programming. MIT Press, Cambrideg. MA,USA, 1998
[23]Weglarz,J.(ed.), Handbook on Recent Advances in Project Scheduling: Recent Models, Algorithms and Applications. Kluwer Academic Publishers. Massachusetts USA, 1999
[24]Brandon,P., Betts, M. and Wamelink, H., Information technology support to construction desin and production. Computer in Industry. 1998,35(1),1-12
[25]Fischer, M.A., Waugh, L.M. and Axworthy, A., IT support of single project, multi-project and industry-wide integration. Computer in Industry. 1999,35(2),31-45
[26]Ehtamo, H.Kettunen, E., and Hamalainen,R.P., Searching for joint gains in multi-party negotiations. European Journal of Operational Research, 2001,130(1),54-69
[27]Kersten, G., and Noronha, S.J., WWW-based negotiation support: design, implementation, and use Decision Support Ssystems,2001,25(3), 135-154
[28]Yamazaki,Y. and Maeda, J., The SAMRT system: an integrated application of automation and information technology in production process. Computer in Industry. 2000,35(1),87-99
[29]Icmeli, O., Erenguc, S. and Zappe, J.C., Project scheduling Problems: A Survey. International Journal of Production Operational Management. 1998.13,80-93
[30]Sebenius, J.k., negotiation analysis: a characterization and review. Management Science, 1999,38(3), 29-35.