我国保险资金运用问题研究
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摘要
保险经营活动往往伴随着宏观经济环境的变化而发生周期性的改变。当保险市场上的风险保障需求超过保险公司对风险保障承保能力的供给时,承保业务收益是保险经营活动的主要利润来源;当保险市场对风险保障的需求小于保险公司对风险保障的承保能力时,保险公司争夺市场份额的竞争可能引起保险费率水平的降低,进而可能导致承保业务出现亏损,这时保险投资收益就会超过承保收益而成为保险经营的最主要利润来源。也就是说,保险公司的承保业务和资金运用业务作为保险公司利润的两个主要来源,在不同的经济发展阶段,发挥着不同的作用。总的来看,随着保险公司的相互竞争导致的费率水平压低,以及投保人对保险保障作用期望值的提高,保险公司的承保业务利润将会逐渐缩小,进而可能影响到保险公司的生存。这就必然要求保险公司转向资金运用业务寻求利润来源。同时,我国加入WTO之后,国内保险业逐渐对外开放,外资保险公司在中国的业务领域已经逐渐从承保业务扩展到了资金运用业务,包括QFII在内的资金运用机制已经逐渐形成,这将为中国保险公司资金运用业务提供经验借鉴。
     今后及未来的一段时间,是我国国民经济发展的重要时期,也是我国保险业发展变化的重要时期,关于保险资金运用的总体要求是:深化保险资金运用体制改革,推进保险资金专业化、规范化、市场化运作。根据国民经济发展的需求,不断拓宽保险资金运用的渠道和范围,充分发挥保险资金长期性和稳定性的优势,为国民经济建设提供资金支持。可见,保险资金运用问题已经引起了我国保险理论界与实务界的普遍关注。我国保险公司如何提高资金运用水平,保险资金如何参与资本市场的运作,以实现资金运用的“安全性”、“收益性”与“流动性”的统一是本文研究的中心问题。
     本文首先对保险资金运用的国内外文献进行了整理,对现代投资组合理论作了较为系统的阐述,为我国保险资金运用于资本市场问题的研究提供理论依据:对于保险资金运用的收益——风险分析借鉴了Markowitz的资产组合理论。Markowitz资产组合理论将投资资产分为无风险收益资产与风险收益资产,将资金运用的风险与收益变量纳入同一模型,以统一的视角思考风险与收益的关系。目前,我国保险公司的资金运用正在由以银行存款和国债等无风险资产为主的模式向银行存款、债券、基金、股票等多种无风险资产和风险资产的组合运用为主的模式转变,为指导保险资金运用于资本市场的风险收益分析提供了思路与方法。当保险资金运用范围扩展到基金、股票等风险较大的资本市场工具时,必然带来风险的增加。对于风险的管理,本文对风险管理中的在险价值VaR(Value at Risk)分析法作了较为系统的介绍,对于中国保险资金在债券、股票及证券投资基金等渠道的投资实践,VaR将是非常合适的风险分析方法。
     其次,本文回顾了我国保险资金运用的历史,剖析了我国保险资金运用的现状,指出了目前我国保险资金运用中存在的收益不高、风险过大等问题,从“安全性”、“收益性”与“流动性”的视角,考察了保险资金在资本市场中的运用,提出了“大力推进保险资金在资本市场的运作是解决目前我国保险资金运用中效率不高、风险过大问题的有效手段”这一观点,进而对保险资金运用于资本市场的必要性与方式进行研究。随着保险资金运用渠道及比例的不断放开,保险资金运用于资本市场可选择的投资工具包括股票、债券与基金,资金运用方式包括直接入市和间接入市,两者在保险资金运用的“安全性”、“收益性”与“流动性”方面呈现出不同的特点。在对平安保险资金运作案例的研究中,分析了平安保险资金投资渠道与收益率水平两方面,通过比较平安保险投资收益率与中国保险业投资平均收益率水平,发现平安保险取得的良好投资成绩与其资金在资本市场的良好运作密切相关。
     接着,本文对保险资金进入资本市场的绩效评估模型进行了研究,对Treynor(1965)、Sharpe(1966)及Jensen(1968)的三个指数模型为代表的单因素模型以及多因素模型进行了分析,据此建立符合中国国情的保险资金运用的次高低模型、风险收益弹性模型、最小二乘模型、市场绩效指数的绩效评估模型。在对保险资金直接入市的最优投资组合模型进行研究时,分别介绍了考虑承保风险的投资比例模型、基于差异系数的最优投资比例组合模型和满足VaR限制的保险资金最优投资组合模型。同时指出资金运用绩效与保险公司资金管理组织模式之间存在着密切关系。
     在对我国保险资金运用于资本市场的绩效进行实证分析时,Granger因果检验结果表明:我国资本市场流通市值与我国保险资金收益率之间存在因果关系。因此,在大力发展资本市场的基础上,应不断开放保险资金运用于资本市场的渠道,提高资金投资于资本市场的比例,选择适合的投资策略,建立最优投资组合是十分必要的。与此同时,进一步完善资本市场“退出”机制的建设,不断加强保险公司主动性的投资组合选择及策略调整,在保证“安全性”和“流动性”的基础上,提高保险资金运用于资本市场的绩效,具有十分重要的意义。
     最后,本文系统分析了保险投资的风险,给出了以Markowitz理论中β值为基础的风险度量方法,通过保险资金运用于资本市场的风险传导机制研究,揭示了保险公司对于资金运用风险应从资本市场和公司自身两个方面加以控制的规律,进而提出了我国保险资金投资风险防范与监管的具体措施,从资本市场和保险公司两个角度,分析了资本市场创新发展和保险公司建立风险防范体系的具体方法和模式。从宏观角度,则提出了保险监管机构与证券监管机构联动监管,保证资金运用的最大收益的观点。资本市场和保险业两个监管机构应加强沟通交流和信息传递,完善交叉监管体制,在保证保险资金的运用安全的前提下,提高保险公司的资金运用收益和偿付能力,推进保险业稳定发展。同时,对本文未来研究方向进行了展望。
Insurance operations often occur with the cyclical changes of the macroeconomicenvironment. When the market's need of risk protection exceeds the ability ofinsurance companies' supply, insurance companies' underwriting insurance businessactivities are the main source of profits. When under the contrary conditions, thecompetition among insurance companies makes them to the bad and the fund yieldexceeds the underwriting business to be the main source of profits. That is to say, asthe only two main profit sources, fund investment and insurance accepting will playdifferent role as the different economic development phases. As the reducing ofinsurance fee and the rising of expected insurance of the policyholder, the profit fromunderwriting business will gradually dwindle, which will badly affect the survival ofinsurance company. As a result, insurance companies must seek the profit from thefund investment business. After China joined into WTO, more and more cross-boardinsurance companies have entered into China. The investment of insurance fund isbecoming a regularity behavior including QFII. These competitive environmentssupply a reference to the Chinese insurance companies. Therefore, the use ofinsurance funds has become a major international insurance operation in business.
     China will experience an important period of economic development in the nearfuture. Chinese insurance industry will also face an important opportunity ofdevelopment. The overall requirements on the use of insurance funds is deepeningreform of the use of insurance funds, pushing the operation of insurance funds to beprofessional, normative and marketable, continually expanding the channel and thescope, taking full advantage of long-term and stability of insurance funds to providefinancial support to the national economy. This shows that the using of insurancefunds in China's insurance companies has attracted widespread attention in thetheoretical and practical sides. Improving the effect of Chinese insurance fundsoperation through entering into the capital market to achieve the consolidation ofsafety、profitability and liquidity is the central issue of this paper.
     This paper firstly introduces the literature on the using of insurance funds and theModern portfolio theory, which provides the theoretical basis for domestic insurancefunds to enter into capital market. For the risk and revenue analysis of insurance fundsoperation, this paper consults the Markowitz's portfolio theory. This theory divides theassets into risk-free assets and risk assets, consequently combines the risk withrevenue to a whole analysis frame. As to Chinese insurance funds, Markowitz's theory provides an operation way to insurance companies from bank deposit and nationaldebt to the combination of bank deposit, national debt, corporation bond, stock andfund. When the combination includes stock and security fund, the risk becomes thepivotal factor of investment. This paper refers to the VaR theory, applies a riskprobability to a given revenue level. The risk probability represents the risk endurelevel of insurance funds. So VaR is a very suitable method to measure the risk ofinsurance funds.
     Secondly, this paper reviews the history of the using of insurance funds in China,analyzes the current situation of insurance funds using, and points out the problem oflow revenue and high risk. This paper also analyzes the operation of insurance fundsin the capital market from the views of safety, profitability and liquidity. As a result,this paper brings forward that insurance funds' entering into capital market is aneffective solution to solve the revenue and risk problem of insurance funds investment.Then this paper studies the necessary and method of insurance funds investing oncapital market, points out the stock, bond and fund are the main objects of insurancefunds. Insurance funds can adopt direct and indirect way to enter into capital market,which performs different safety, profitability and liquidity. This paper studies Pingan'scase from two aspects of the investment channels and yield levels. Through thecontrast of Pingan's return rate with the average rate of insurance industry, this paperproves that the high return rate relates to the operation in capital market.
     In succession, this paper studies the performance evaluation model of insurancefunds' investment in capital market, and analyzes the three representational singlefactor and multi-factor model of Reynor (1965), Sharpe(1966) and Jensen (1968).Then this paper founds sub-level model, risk-benefit model, the LS model and themarket performance indicators evaluation model, which are appropriate to Chineseinsurance companies and capital market. At the same time, this paper introduces theinvestment ratio model based on the underwriting risk, the optimal proportionportfolio model based on the difference coefficient and VaR limits. From all above,the consanguineous relationship in insurance company between investmentperformance and fund management is proved.
     Granger model shows that there is causality relationship between investmentperformance and mobilization value of capital market in China. So, it is necessary todeepen reform of capital market, expend the investment channel and improve theproportion of insurance funds to capital market. For insurance company, it is important to select appropriate invest strategy and found optimal portfolio. At thesame time, the "exit" mechanism of capital market should be consummated. Theinsurance company should establish actively choice of portfolio and timelyadjustment of investment, which can improve the profitability on the basis of safetyand liquidity.
     Finally, this paper analyzes the risk of insurance investment and uses theβtomeasure the investment risk. On the study of conduction mechanism, this paperindexes that the insurance fund investment risk should be controlled from two aspectsof capital market and insurance company itself. On one hand, capital market shouldbe reformed and innovated. On the other hand, insurance company should foundappropriate risk prevention policy and system. From macro-regulatory perspective,China should fully exert the function and action of SEC and IEC, enhancecommunion and cooperation between them, explore and perfect the cross-custodymechanism. From all above, the insurance funds can achieve the profitability on thebase of safety and liquidity and the Chinese insurance companies can develop stably.On the end of this paper, some future research directions are presented.
引文
1 车昭益,保险业综合经营势在必行,转引:http://www.123bx.com/insurance/154/baoxian41937_1.html
    2 转引自:叶晓凌、黄卫华,关于扩大保险投资领域的新思路[J],云南财贸学院学报(社会科学版),2003 Vol.18 No.2:第61-62页
    3 越来越多的保险机构通过股票市场筹集资本,不仅保险资金是股票市场的主要资金来源,资本市场反过来也成为保险公司发展资本的重要途径。
    1 程彩清,关注两会代表关于财税政策改革的建言,转引自:http://www.tianqincpa.com/view_news.asp?id=122
    1 根据《中国保险年鉴2005》有关数据,初步的保守估计,我国保险业的偿付能力不足差额达到74.5亿元人民币,低于最低偿付能力标准达到32.69%,已达到《保险管理暂行规定》第二十五条规定的危机警戒线。
    2 从潜在扩容压力主要来源看,主要包括:(1)目前上市公司非流通股的可流通化和减持国有股限售期到期的扩容压力;(2)国有银行体系和重新注资带来新一轮银行上市融资压力;(3)中资保险机构利用资本市场弥补资本缺口带来新一轮扩容压力。
    3 目前整个中资保险业的实收资本总计不到20亿美元,而西方国家一家中等规模的保险公司的资金就达到数十亿美元,从目前进入我国保险市场的外资保险公司的资本状况看,其所有者权益均在30亿美元以上。显然,目前的证券市场承受能力很难承受未来我国保险业发展的巨大资本缺口。
    4 保险资金是资本市场未来资金来源的关键性渠道,这类资金包括商业保险资金、社会保障基金、企业年金等。但保险资金规模巨大,资本市场必须有丰富的投资工具和强大流动性支持来吸引此类资金。市场投资品种缺乏,市场规模偏小,对大资金而言,就存在很大的流动性风险。而流动性风险恰恰是保险类资金主要关注的风险。
    5 需要着重指出的是,保险与资本市场的融合不是简单的资金互动关系,而是一个金融体系结构性整合和发展的深化过程,既包括资本市场为适应保险机构入市在交易机制、产品结构、交易介质与风险监控等方面的改革创新,又包括保险机构自身的管理构架、监控制度、经营战略、产品结构等方面的调整和创新。只有通过深化保险和资本市场的结构性改革,促使两者良性互动,才能突破我国保险与资本市场的低水平相互制约状况(吴玉明,2006)。
    1 资料来源:http://www.circ.gov.cn/Porta10/InfoModule_394/37335.htm
    1 温世扬,保险法[M],北京:法律出版社,2003年,第493页。
    2 我国《保险法》规定在全国范围内开办的保险公司,实收货币资本不得低于人民币5亿元;在特定区域内开办的保险公司,实收货币资本不得低于人民币2亿元。
    3 资本保全是指资本一经投入,就归保险公司长期使用,除了依法转让以外,投资者不得以任何方式抽回,除非保险人在发生特大自然灾害事故,各种准备金不足以支付时,才动用资本金进行赔偿或偿付。
    1 申曙光、王少箐,中国保险投资问题研究[M],广州:广东经济出版社,2002年,第1页。
    1 袁宗蔚,保险学——危险与保险[M],北京:首都经济贸易大学出版社,2000年,第52页。
    1 资料来源:http://www.cfcc.com.cn/market.htm
    1 李秀芳,寿险精算实务[M],天津:南开大学出版社,2000年,第101页。
    1 资料来源:中国保监会网站:www.circ.gov.cn
    1 马克思在其不朽巨著《资本论》和《反社林论》中早已指出:实践需要理论的指导,理论的发展源于实践,反过来理论一旦形成,对实践又会提供指导作用,服务于实践是理论存在和发展的要求。
    2 在保险风险证券化理论的指导下,现代巨灾风险证券化工具如巨灾保险期货、巨灾保险期权、巨灾债券、巨灾互换、看跌巨灾股权、意外准备金期票等将巨灾风险转嫁到资本市场,或者在资本市场针对巨灾风险进行专门融资,利用资本市场的雄厚资金力量化解了巨灾风险,发挥了工具多、可选择性强、灵活性强的特点。
    3 资料来源:周道许,保险理论研究的历史沿革与最新发展,中国保监会发展改革部
    1 保险风险证券化的概念最早是由美国学者Robert Goshay和Richard Sandor在1973年发表的一篇关于保险衍生产品的论文《构建再保险期货市场的可行性研究》中提出的。他们率先探讨了保险市场与资本市场结合的问题,提出将再保险风险转移至资本市场,希望通过风险证券化或保险衍生产品,解决再保险市场承保能力不足的问题。但在当时却没有得到响应。大约经历了20年的时间,保险风险证券化才进入实践操作阶段。是保险和资本的融合与发展促成了保险风险证券化的实际出现。
    2 资料来源:《风险管理学报》第一卷第一期,1999年5月。
    1 对于保险资金通过证券投资进入资本市场运行方式,吕舒(1999)提出了保险资金操作的方案,以及确定保险资金的募集比例和保险入市形式的合理性建议。孙祁祥(1999)就保险资金运用管理问题提出了自己的观点,她认为投资政策是在管理一个保险公司或养老基金的投资策略中必须考虑的目标函数与约束条件;一个有效的投资政策强调投资与负债之间的联系;投资政策一方面要使负债管理者了解投资目标及其约束,另一方面还要使投资管理者了解赔付的情况,提高投资收益。
    2 肖文、路永光(2002)从保险资金和资本市场互动的角度,探讨了保险资金进入资本市场的方式以及保险资金可选择的投资工具特点,最后提出保险资金投资资本市场应该施行内部控制和外部监管的策略。杨帆、韩卫国、甘露(2002)从保险资金运用监管、资金运用规模、资金运用模式、资金运用收益四个方面,对国内外保险公司进行深入比较,最后得出对国内保险公司资金运用的建议。
    3 李晟晖,保险资金入市与金融格局互动研究[J],现代财经,2003(3)
    4 吕志勇,保险市场与资本市场互动关系研究[J],山东财政学院学报,2004(1)
    1 孙祁祥、孙立明,保险经济学研究述评[J],经济研究,2002(05)
    2 “公共规制”理论(Public interest Theory of Regulation)属于规范经济学的范畴,该理论认为监管的存在是为了保护消费者免遭侵害,是服务于公共利益的。
    1 对于资产风险,应该主要考虑如何进行有效的信用分析和投资分析,如何进行投资组合和提高资产管理水平;对于定价风险,主要考虑在产品设计时应如何科学定价,在经营中如何加强核保管理、节约费用开支,提高价格厘定水平;对于利率风险,保险公司应采用一定的策略对资产负债的匹配问题进行管理。
    2 赵平、罗毅,保险资金入市及风险管理探析[J],云南财贸学院学报(社会科学版),2002(01)
    1 陈波,对保险资金直接入市的思考[J],金融理论与教学,2004(04)
    2 李俊芸,保险资金入市后的风险及其防范[J],湖北社会科学,2005(08)
    3 王芳、荆伟,保险资金直接入市与风险控制[J],商丘师范学院学报,2005(01)
    1 资料来源:肖文、谢文武,保险公司投资环境分析[J],保险研究,2000(10);陈朝先,保险资金与资本市场发展[J],财经科学,2000(02);彭志刚,保险资金入市,一切刚刚开始[J],银行家,2005(05);李俊芸,保险资金入市后的风险及其防范[J],湖北社会科学,2005(08);张红,析国有保险公司的内部控制[J],保险研究,2004(12);郑汉杰,保险资金运用的法律规制[J],当代法学,2001(08);王国良,发展商业保险,构建和谐社会[J],保险研究,2005(06);费安玲、王绪瑾,保险投资监管法律问题的思考[J],北京商学院学报,2000(01)。
    2 引自:林义,论保险资金运用的风险控制[J],保险研究,2002(09);张桂荣、孙浩进,国内外保险资金运用模式与收益的比较研究[J],边疆经济与文化 2006(01)。
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    1 林宝清,保险发展模式论[M],北京:中国金融出版社,1993年,第157页。
    1 直到1998年10月,国家才逐步放宽保险资金运用渠道的限制,允许保险公司参与银行间债券市场,从事现券交易,保险公司购买企业债券的品种仅限于评级在AA+以上的铁路、三峡和电力等中央企业债券,并且购买的债券余额不得超过保险公司总资产的10%。1998年财政部在发行国债的总额内向数家保险公司发行了60亿元人民币定向债券。
    2 1999年10月29日,我国首批获配原始新基金的11家保险公司认购同盛证券投资基金9亿份基金单位。2000年3月至6月,中国保监会批准平安等5家保险公司将证券投资基金投资比例提高到10%;6月初,保监会批准太保证券投资基金比例提高到15%,平安保险将投资连结产品部分证券投资基金的比例提高到30%。
    3 央行在2003年第2季度《中国货币政策执行报告》中指出:拓宽保险资金运用渠道,提高保险业资金的运用效益,是我国保险业进一步发展中面临的重要问题,首次将保险业纳入货币政策范围,说明保险资金运用问题越来越受到重视,保险资金运用有望进一步的突破。
    1 文件包括2006年7月《关于加强保险机构所属境内非保险类经济实体和境外保险机构财务监管若干事项的通知》、2006年11月《关于加强保险资金风险管理的意见》、2007年2月《保险机构债券投资信用评级指引(试行)》。
    1 主要表现在四个方面:一是积极拓宽保险资金运用渠道:二是强化投资风险意识,健全保险资金运用风险管理机制;三是深化保险资金运用管理体制改革,推行保险资金集中化和专业化的运作模式;四是建立健全监管法规,加强保险资金运用有效监管。
    2 资料来源:中国保监会网站www.circ.gov.cn
    1 资料来源:国研网,经作者整理
    1 1999年10月29日,中国保监会下发《保险公司买卖证券投资基金管理暂行办法》,允许保险公司在上半年总资产5%额度以内投资于证券市场。同年11月,基金同盛上网发行30亿份基金单位,其中向商业保险公司配售9亿份,共有11家保险公司参与申购,基金同盛成为第一家由商业保险公司持股的证券投资基金。
    2 由于其操作透明,监管严格,实行专家理财,在规范性、收益性等方面有较好的保障。在一般情况下,证券投资基金的回报率要高于银行存款和国债,而风险则小于直接购买股票。因此,保险资金通过这种方式入市可以增强保险公司的盈利能力,有效解决“利差损”问题,对保险公司来说无疑是保障收益、规避风险的双赢之道。
    3 数据来源:国研网,经作者整理
    1 中国平安拥有中国金融企业中真正整合的综合金融服务平台,实现了公司战略,企业文化,品牌传播IT技术、人力资源、计划管理和风险控制等的集中统一,可以为个人客户和企业客户提供系列的个性化产品和服务。作为中国金融保险业第一家引入外资的企业,中国平安也是国内金融业中引进国际化管理团队的先驱。目前,平安前100位高层管理人员中约有60位来自海外。
    2 证券导刊,中国平安,畅想未来,转引自:http://stock.hexun.com/column/detail.aspx?id=2059170
    3 引自:中国金融网,http://www.zgjrw.com/News/200667/Insurance/063266392400.shtml, 保险系第七家资产管理公司正式挂牌成立。
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    1 资料来源:国家统计局网站,www.stats.gov.cn
    1 资料来源:中国保监会网站:www.circ.gov.cn
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    1 赵明浩,保险资金运用专业化管理问题研究[J],保险研究,2003(4)
    2 Chinese Insurers Set Up Asset Management Company, Asian Pulse, June 27, 2003
    1 “十一五”期间保险资金投资风险控制体系将由内部监控、专业监督和政府监管三部分构成。
    2 在对投资运营情况进行考核时,应根据股票、基金投资和基础设施项目的风险性、收益性和期限结构等的差异,分别制定投资基准指标进行考核,形成绩效评估体系。
    1 保险公司在产品研发、营销、业务管理、偿付管理与资金投资管理等方面都存在风险,必须将这些风险综合到统一的风险管理体系中进行管理,从各个环节入手,逐步推行全面风险管理模式,实施动态金融分析和风险预算等风险控制方法。
    2 裴光,中国保险监管研究[M],北京:中国金融出版社,1999年,第162页
    3 IAIS Sub-Committee on Solency and Actuarial Issues,Issues Paper, Final Version, 15 March,2000偿付能力是指公司以其资产抵偿其负债的能力。
    1 焦瑾璞,WTO与中国金融业未来[M],北京:中国金融出版社,2000年,第214页
    2 郭旭仁,论经济全球化与保险安全[J],保险研究,2003(07)
    3 当然,混业经营不是一蹴而就之事,而需要一个循序渐进的过程,在这一过程中。我们的监管机构要有前瞻性,在监管制度上努力促进这一过程的发展,最终实行我国金融业的混业经营。在以后的几年里,极有可能将目前比较分散的监管机构,如银监会、证券监督管理委员会、保险监督管理委员会等多个金融监管机构合并为一个统一的金融监管当局,负责所有金融机构和业务的监管。
    1 资料来源:http://www.so114.com/article/20050916/090101.asp?id=19&sid=133&self_ID=930113
    1 资料来源:中国保险网,我国保险资金运用中股票组合的风险特征研究,统计研究,转引自:http://www.3wins.com/news-center/newslist.asp?id=97792
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