南水北调东线工程蓄水系统运行风险分析
|
摘要
东线工程是我国南水北调总体布局中的重要组成部分,随着工程的建设实施,对工程运行期由于各种不确定性因素引起的风险进行分析和决策已成为目前工程规划、管理的热点和难点。论文依托“十一五”国家科技支撑计划重点项目“南水北调工程若干关键技术研究与应用”第九课题“南水北调运行风险管理关键技术问题研究”(2006BAB04A09),面向南水北调东线调水运行期间的工程风险,以工程风险管理理论为基础,以工程风险分析的流程为主线,界定、识别、评估东线工程运行风险,提出了相应的降低工程运行风险的对策与措施。主要研究内容包括:
(1)工程风险分析理论与方法研究。介绍了工程风险管理和工程风险分析的内涵和流程,通过分析水利工程中承载能力与荷载的不确定性,推倒了工程设计安全系数与工程运行风险率的数学关系,并将水利工程风险率计算方法分为单一和综合两种情况进行归纳评述。指出各种方法的衍生、承接关系、应用条件及优缺点。
(2)根据各工程在调水过程中所起的不同作用,将东线工程系统分解为提水、输水、蓄水三个子系统,识别各子系统在工程结构以及施工、运行和管理等各环节的风险因子,构建了各子系统风险因子结构体系。
(3)确立了考虑风险率和失事后果的东线工程运行风险评价基准以及蓄水子系统单因子风险估计基准,运用基于层次分析法(AHP)和模糊理论(FCT)的风险评价模型,对蓄水子系统进行运行风险评估并排序。以东平湖为实例对风险评价基准的合理性进行验证,初步证明风险评价基准建立较合理,风险评估区间划分较准确。
(4)根据工程风险评估结论和工程运行情况,分工程措施和非工程措施给出降低风险的对策与措施。结合传统的安全评价方法,对蓄水子系统中东平湖二级湖堤进行情景分析,针对性地给出了工程风险响应措施。
The East Route is one of the three lines of the South-North Water Diversion Projects. With the construction of the East Route Project, risk analysis and decision during the operation has become a key point of the Project management. Supported by the State's "Eleventh Five-Year" Science-Tech Tackle Key Project "Operating Risk Analysis and Management in the South-North Water Diversion Projects", this thesis chose the East Route Project as study object, defined, identified and evaluated the engineering risk of the East Route Project during operation. The main contents were as follows:
First, research on the engineering risk analysis theories and methodologies. The mathematical relation between design safety coefficient and operation risk rate of hydraulic engineering was analyzed. Then the calculation methods for risk rate were classified into single and comprehensive methods and reviewed.
Second, engineering risk identification. The Project were divided into three subsystems as water lift, water delivery and water storage subsystems according to the functions in the course of water transfer. The risk factors of each subsystem in structure, construction, operation and management were identified and the stmcture systems about risk factors of each subsystem were established.
Third, engineering risk evaluation. The evaluation benchmark of the water storage subsystem was established and verified by a case study. The evaluation models were settled down by means of analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy consistency theorem (FCT) methodologies. And the operating risk grades were ranked.
Last, based on the conclusions of engineering risk evaluation and conditions of project operation, the strategies and measures from structure measures and non-structure measures were put forward to decrease the operating risk. The scenario analysis of secondary lake dykes of Dong-Ping Lake was performed by combining with traditional safety evaluation method. Then the response measures of project risk were put forward.
(1)工程风险分析理论与方法研究。介绍了工程风险管理和工程风险分析的内涵和流程,通过分析水利工程中承载能力与荷载的不确定性,推倒了工程设计安全系数与工程运行风险率的数学关系,并将水利工程风险率计算方法分为单一和综合两种情况进行归纳评述。指出各种方法的衍生、承接关系、应用条件及优缺点。
(2)根据各工程在调水过程中所起的不同作用,将东线工程系统分解为提水、输水、蓄水三个子系统,识别各子系统在工程结构以及施工、运行和管理等各环节的风险因子,构建了各子系统风险因子结构体系。
(3)确立了考虑风险率和失事后果的东线工程运行风险评价基准以及蓄水子系统单因子风险估计基准,运用基于层次分析法(AHP)和模糊理论(FCT)的风险评价模型,对蓄水子系统进行运行风险评估并排序。以东平湖为实例对风险评价基准的合理性进行验证,初步证明风险评价基准建立较合理,风险评估区间划分较准确。
(4)根据工程风险评估结论和工程运行情况,分工程措施和非工程措施给出降低风险的对策与措施。结合传统的安全评价方法,对蓄水子系统中东平湖二级湖堤进行情景分析,针对性地给出了工程风险响应措施。
The East Route is one of the three lines of the South-North Water Diversion Projects. With the construction of the East Route Project, risk analysis and decision during the operation has become a key point of the Project management. Supported by the State's "Eleventh Five-Year" Science-Tech Tackle Key Project "Operating Risk Analysis and Management in the South-North Water Diversion Projects", this thesis chose the East Route Project as study object, defined, identified and evaluated the engineering risk of the East Route Project during operation. The main contents were as follows:
First, research on the engineering risk analysis theories and methodologies. The mathematical relation between design safety coefficient and operation risk rate of hydraulic engineering was analyzed. Then the calculation methods for risk rate were classified into single and comprehensive methods and reviewed.
Second, engineering risk identification. The Project were divided into three subsystems as water lift, water delivery and water storage subsystems according to the functions in the course of water transfer. The risk factors of each subsystem in structure, construction, operation and management were identified and the stmcture systems about risk factors of each subsystem were established.
Third, engineering risk evaluation. The evaluation benchmark of the water storage subsystem was established and verified by a case study. The evaluation models were settled down by means of analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy consistency theorem (FCT) methodologies. And the operating risk grades were ranked.
Last, based on the conclusions of engineering risk evaluation and conditions of project operation, the strategies and measures from structure measures and non-structure measures were put forward to decrease the operating risk. The scenario analysis of secondary lake dykes of Dong-Ping Lake was performed by combining with traditional safety evaluation method. Then the response measures of project risk were put forward.
引文
[1]YEN B C,ANG A H S.Risk analysis in design of hydraulic projects[A].In:Chiu C L,eds.Proc 1st Inter Sump on Stocha Hydrau[C].Pittsburg:University of Pittsburg,1971:694-709.
[2]YEN B C.Engineering approach to risk and reliability analysis.Risk analysis and Management of Natural and Man made Hazards[M].Haimes Y and Stakhiv E Z,ASCE,1989.
[3]WOOD E.F.An analysis of flood levee reliability[J],Water Resour.Res,1977,13(3):665-671.
[4]王才君,郭生练,田向荣,等.三峡工程三期明渠提前截流水文风险分析[J].人民长江,2002,33(7):6-7.
[5]SALMON G M,HARTFORD D N D.Risk analysis for dam safety-part Ⅰ[J].International Water power & Dam Construction 47(3),1995:42-47.
[6]梅亚东,谈广鸣.大坝防洪安全评价的风险标准[J].水电能源科学,2002,20(4):8-10.
[7]王本德,徐玉英.水库洪水标准的风险分析[J].水文,2001,21(6):8-10.
[8]STEWART A R.Dam Risk Management,Modern Techniques for Dams Financing Construction,Operation[J].Risk Assessment,2001(9):721-749.
[9]WIELAND M,BRENNER.P R.Life-Span of Concrete and Embankment Dams and Economic Benefits of Dam Safety Projects[J].Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering,2008,30(11):1692-1698.
[10]LEMPERIERE F.Dams That Have Failed by Flooding:An Analysis of 70 Failures[J].Water Power and Dam Construction,1993(9,10):437-452.
[11]肖义,郭生练,周芬,等.风险分析在大坝水文安全评估中的应用研究[J].水电能源科学,2003,21(3):51-54.
[12]曹楚生.从大坝设计和风险分析看大坝安全[J].水利水电工程设计,2000,19(1):1-5.
[13]刘玉恒,麻荣永,吴彰敦.土坝滑坡风险计算方法研究[J].红水河,2001,20(1):29-32.
[14]麻荣永.土石坝风险分析方法及应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2004.
[15]ICOLD.Bulletin on Risk Assessment as An Aid to Dam Safety Management:Principles,Terminology and Discussion of Current and Potential Roles[S].2003.
[16]SZIDAROVSZKY F,DUCKSTEIN L,BOGARDI I.Levee system reliability along a confluence reach[J],J of the Engineering Mechanics.Div,ASCE,1975(EM5),101:609-622.
[17]TUNG Y K.Risk-based design of flood defense systems[M],New York:Scienc Press,2002:71-81.
[18]PLATE J E.Flood risk and flood management[J],J of Hydrology,2002,267:2-11.
[19]冯平,李润苗.水库保护区内防洪堤的水文风险估算[J].河海大学学报.1994,22(6):98-100.
[20]ANG H A,TANG H W.Probability concepts in engineering planning and design Volume Ⅱ-Decision[J],Risk,and Reliability,1990(10):512-529.
[21]SEDVOSKY Z.Discussion on:An inverse reliability method and its application,Structural Safety,2000,22(1):97-102.
[22]CRUM J R,DOUGLAS A.Reliability applied to levee seepage analysis[A].Probabilistic Mechanics and Structural and Geotechnical Reliability,Proceedings of the Specialty Conference[C],1996:946-949.
[23]何广讷,杨斌.海堤地震稳定性的概率分析[J].海洋工程,1995,13(1):62-69.
[24]王卓甫,章志强,杨高升.防洪堤结构风险计算模型探讨[J].水利学报,1998(7):64-67.
[25]DUCKSTEIN L,BOGARDI I.Application of reliability theory to hydraulic engineering design[J],J.of Hydrau.Div.Proc.ASCE,1981,107(HY7):799-815.
[26]李国芳,黄振平,章志强,等.长江防洪堤南京段设计洪水位风险分析[J].河海大学学报.1999,27(2):22-27.
[27]VAN der MEER J W,de LOOFF H.Integrated approach on the safety of dikes along the Great Dutch lakes.Proceedings of the Coastal Engineering Conference.1998.3:3439-3452.
[28]吴兴征,丁留谦,张金接.防洪堤的可靠性设计方法探讨[J].水利学报,2003(4):94-100.
[29]李爱花,刘恒,耿雷华,等.水利工程风险分析研究现状综述[J].水科学进展,2009,20(3):453-459.
[30]ROSENBLOOM J S.A Case Study in Risk Management[M].Prentice Hall.1972.
[31]WILLIAMS C A,HEINE R M.Risk Management and Insurance[M].New York:McGraw-Hill.1985.
[32]ALBAHAR J F.Systematic Risk Management Approach for Construction Projects[J].J of Construction Engineering and Management,1990,116(3):533-546.
[33]JONKMAN S N.Loss of Life Estimation in Flood Risk Assessment Theory and Application[D],IHE,PhD thesis report,Delft,2007.
[34]NGUYEN G N.Probabilistic Design and Risk Analysis for the Duong River Dike in the Red River Delta in Vietnam[D].IHE,Master thesis report,Delft,2002.
[35]VRISOU VAN ECK N,KOK M.Standard method for predicting damage and casualties as a result of floods[R].Delft,the Netherlands:Ministry of Transport,Public Works and Water Management,2001:22-41.
[36]PILARCZYK K W.Dike and revetment-design,maintenance and safety assessment[M].Netherland:Balkema A A,1998:443-462.
[37]李雷,王仁中,盛金保.溃坝后果严重程度评价模型研究[J].安全与环境学报,2006.6(1):1-4.
[38]焦宝仁.农业机械设计中的安全系数与可靠度[J].农业机械学报,1984(3):43-56.
[39]FORD,DAVID T.Uncertainties in risk analysis:six levels of treatment[J].Reliability Engineering and System Safety,1996:95-111.
[40]吴兴征,赵进勇.堤防结构风险分析理论及其应用[J].水利学报,2003(8):79-85.
[41]VRIJLING J K,VERHAGEN H J.Probabilistic Design of Hydraulic Structures[M].Delft,the Netherlands:Delft University of Technology,2005:25-28.
[42]HREINSSON,EGILL B.Monte Carlo based risk analysis in hydroelectric power system expansion planning in the presence of uncertainty in project cost and capacity[A].UPEC 2003,38th International Universities Power Engineering Conference[C],2003:308-311.
[43]高波,王银堂,胡四一.水库汛限水位调整与运用[J].水科学进展,2005,16(3):326-333.
[44]徐卫亚,刑万波,王凯,等.超标洪水下堤防失事风险评价及工程应用[J].水利水运工程学报,2006(3):39-44.
[45]陈凤兰,王长新.施工导流风险分析与计算[J].水科学进展,1996,7(4):361-366.
[46]胡志根,胡建明,李燕群.过水土石围堰下游护坡的溢流设计风险率模型[J].水科学进展,2003.14(5):622-625.
[47]MAILHOT A,VILLENEUVE J P.Mean-value second-order uncertainty analysis method:application to water quality modeling[J].Advances in Water Resources,2003,26:491-499.
[48]ERTO P,GIORGIO M.Assessing high reliability via Bayesian approach and accelerated tests[J].Reliability Engineering and System Safety,2002(76):301-310.
[49]王才君,郭生练,刘攀,等.三峡水库动态汛限水位洪水调度风险指标及综合评价模型研究[J].水科学进展,2004.15(3):376-381.
[50]金菊良,刘永芳,丁晶,等.城市防洪工程经济风险分析的蒙特卡洛法[J].长江科学院院报,2003(1):40-43.
[51]殷峻暹,陈守煜,梁国华.应用模糊决策分析理论确定城市防洪标准研究[J].水电能源科学,2001(3):52-54.
[52]张伟,唐德善,胡其勇等.模糊优选理论在城市防洪规划中的应用[J].水利经济,2003.21(3):3-5.
[53]陈守煜,郭瑜.模糊可变集合及其在防洪工程体系综合风险评价中的应用[J].水利水电科技进展,2005.25(6):4-8.
[54]陈新民,夏佳,罗国煜.黄河下游悬河决口灾害的风险分析与评价[J].水利学报,2000.28(10):12-16.
[55]邓曦东,王春燕.工程项目风险的灰色模糊评判方法研究[J].三峡大学学报(自然科学版),2007.29(1):49-53.
[56]胡国华,夏军.风险分析的灰色随机风险率方法研究[J].水利学报,2001(4):1-5.
[57]黄俊,傅湘,柯志波.层次分析法在城市防洪工程方案选择中的应用[J].水利与建筑工程学报,2007.5(1):52-55.
[58]JOWITT P W.A maximum entropy view of probability-distributed catchment models[J].Hydrol.Sci.J,1991,36(2):123-134.
[59]张继国,刘新仁.降雨时空分布不均匀性的信息熵分析[J].水科学进展,2000.11(2):133-137.
[60]王栋,朱元甡.最大熵原理在水文水资源科学中的应用[J].水科学进展,2001.12(3):424-430.
[61]李继清,张玉山.应用最大熵原理分析水利工程经济效益的风险[J].水科学进展,2003.14(5):626-630.
[62]MOSEH A.Common cause failures:an analysis methodology and examples[J].Reliability Engineering and System Safety,1991,34:249-292.
[63]中水淮河工程有限责任公司,中水北方勘测设计研究责任公司.《南水北调东线一期工程可行性研究报告(上、中、下册)》[R].2005,12.
[64]姜蓓蕾,刘恒,耿雷华,等.层次分解法在南水北调东线工程风险因子识别中的应用[J].水利水电技术,2009(3):65-67.
[65]曹云,堤防工程风险分析及其在板桥河堤防中的应用[D].南京:河海大学,2005.
[66]刑万波.堤防工程风险分析理论与实践研究[D].南京:河海大学,2006.
[67]王洁.堤防工程风险管理及其在秦淮河上的应用[D].南京:河海大学,2006.
[68]丁丽.堤防工程风险评价方法研究[D].南京:河海大学,2006.
[69]张秀勇.黄河下游堤防破坏机理与安全评价方法的研究[D].南京:河海大学,2005.
[70]李雷,王仁钟,盛金宝,等.大坝风险评价与风险管理[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2006:48-57.
[71]叶正伟.洪泽湖流域洪涝灾害的成灾机理分析与探讨[J].水文,2006,26(4):85-87.
[72]史展,周凤阳.洪泽湖的综合治理与开发[J].治淮,2002(7):11-13.
[73]韩成银,陈斌,吴天宏,等.洪泽湖大堤隐患成因及处理措施[J].水利水电科技进展,2002,22(4):49-51.
[74]张俊,李长斌,孙同领.淮河下游区治理重点工程-洪泽湖大堤加固[J].水利规划与设计,2004(2):42-47.
[75]楚恩国,卜贤晖.2004年洪泽湖流域干旱原因分析[J].水文,2006,26(5):80-82.
[76]陆小伟,王均.浅析淮河下游区防洪骨干工程[J].水利规划与设计,2004(2):32-35
[77]常虹.南水北调东线江苏境内工程管理模式研究[D].南京:河海大学,2005.
[78]张金才.洪泽湖-骆马湖-南四湖及淮-沂泾流丰枯遭遇探讨[J].水利科技,1998(7):31-34.
[79]高峰,赵培青,刘景华.南水北凋南四湖水位分析[J].中国农村水利水电,2005(8):36-37.
[80]贾德旺,陈洪年,吴晓华,等.南水北调东线工程南四湖调蓄区地质灾害评价及防治[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2007,18(2):50-53.
[81]秦爱香,杨玉林,郭国全,等.南水北调工程利用老湖区蓄水对周边地区的影响及对策[J].水利 经济,2002(5):51-55.
[82]马强.东平湖二级湖堤综合研究[D].济南:山东大学,2008.
[83]李洪书,陈志江,杨丽红,等.东平湖二级湖堤石护坡破坏原因及加固方案[J].山东水利,2005(12):30-31.
[84]高峰,李洪书,王永刚,等.东平湖二级湖堤级别的探讨[J].山东国土资源,2005,21(8):60-61.
[85]王宁,葛丽荣,高新平,等.东平湖滞洪区防洪决策方法应用探讨[J].山东水利,2000(3):21-22.
[816]闫德强.南水北调东线山东段工程风险及其应对研究[D].南京:河海大学,2006.
[87]顾慰慈编著.土石(堤)坝的设计与计算[M].北京:中国建材工业出版社,2006:236-321.
[2]YEN B C.Engineering approach to risk and reliability analysis.Risk analysis and Management of Natural and Man made Hazards[M].Haimes Y and Stakhiv E Z,ASCE,1989.
[3]WOOD E.F.An analysis of flood levee reliability[J],Water Resour.Res,1977,13(3):665-671.
[4]王才君,郭生练,田向荣,等.三峡工程三期明渠提前截流水文风险分析[J].人民长江,2002,33(7):6-7.
[5]SALMON G M,HARTFORD D N D.Risk analysis for dam safety-part Ⅰ[J].International Water power & Dam Construction 47(3),1995:42-47.
[6]梅亚东,谈广鸣.大坝防洪安全评价的风险标准[J].水电能源科学,2002,20(4):8-10.
[7]王本德,徐玉英.水库洪水标准的风险分析[J].水文,2001,21(6):8-10.
[8]STEWART A R.Dam Risk Management,Modern Techniques for Dams Financing Construction,Operation[J].Risk Assessment,2001(9):721-749.
[9]WIELAND M,BRENNER.P R.Life-Span of Concrete and Embankment Dams and Economic Benefits of Dam Safety Projects[J].Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering,2008,30(11):1692-1698.
[10]LEMPERIERE F.Dams That Have Failed by Flooding:An Analysis of 70 Failures[J].Water Power and Dam Construction,1993(9,10):437-452.
[11]肖义,郭生练,周芬,等.风险分析在大坝水文安全评估中的应用研究[J].水电能源科学,2003,21(3):51-54.
[12]曹楚生.从大坝设计和风险分析看大坝安全[J].水利水电工程设计,2000,19(1):1-5.
[13]刘玉恒,麻荣永,吴彰敦.土坝滑坡风险计算方法研究[J].红水河,2001,20(1):29-32.
[14]麻荣永.土石坝风险分析方法及应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2004.
[15]ICOLD.Bulletin on Risk Assessment as An Aid to Dam Safety Management:Principles,Terminology and Discussion of Current and Potential Roles[S].2003.
[16]SZIDAROVSZKY F,DUCKSTEIN L,BOGARDI I.Levee system reliability along a confluence reach[J],J of the Engineering Mechanics.Div,ASCE,1975(EM5),101:609-622.
[17]TUNG Y K.Risk-based design of flood defense systems[M],New York:Scienc Press,2002:71-81.
[18]PLATE J E.Flood risk and flood management[J],J of Hydrology,2002,267:2-11.
[19]冯平,李润苗.水库保护区内防洪堤的水文风险估算[J].河海大学学报.1994,22(6):98-100.
[20]ANG H A,TANG H W.Probability concepts in engineering planning and design Volume Ⅱ-Decision[J],Risk,and Reliability,1990(10):512-529.
[21]SEDVOSKY Z.Discussion on:An inverse reliability method and its application,Structural Safety,2000,22(1):97-102.
[22]CRUM J R,DOUGLAS A.Reliability applied to levee seepage analysis[A].Probabilistic Mechanics and Structural and Geotechnical Reliability,Proceedings of the Specialty Conference[C],1996:946-949.
[23]何广讷,杨斌.海堤地震稳定性的概率分析[J].海洋工程,1995,13(1):62-69.
[24]王卓甫,章志强,杨高升.防洪堤结构风险计算模型探讨[J].水利学报,1998(7):64-67.
[25]DUCKSTEIN L,BOGARDI I.Application of reliability theory to hydraulic engineering design[J],J.of Hydrau.Div.Proc.ASCE,1981,107(HY7):799-815.
[26]李国芳,黄振平,章志强,等.长江防洪堤南京段设计洪水位风险分析[J].河海大学学报.1999,27(2):22-27.
[27]VAN der MEER J W,de LOOFF H.Integrated approach on the safety of dikes along the Great Dutch lakes.Proceedings of the Coastal Engineering Conference.1998.3:3439-3452.
[28]吴兴征,丁留谦,张金接.防洪堤的可靠性设计方法探讨[J].水利学报,2003(4):94-100.
[29]李爱花,刘恒,耿雷华,等.水利工程风险分析研究现状综述[J].水科学进展,2009,20(3):453-459.
[30]ROSENBLOOM J S.A Case Study in Risk Management[M].Prentice Hall.1972.
[31]WILLIAMS C A,HEINE R M.Risk Management and Insurance[M].New York:McGraw-Hill.1985.
[32]ALBAHAR J F.Systematic Risk Management Approach for Construction Projects[J].J of Construction Engineering and Management,1990,116(3):533-546.
[33]JONKMAN S N.Loss of Life Estimation in Flood Risk Assessment Theory and Application[D],IHE,PhD thesis report,Delft,2007.
[34]NGUYEN G N.Probabilistic Design and Risk Analysis for the Duong River Dike in the Red River Delta in Vietnam[D].IHE,Master thesis report,Delft,2002.
[35]VRISOU VAN ECK N,KOK M.Standard method for predicting damage and casualties as a result of floods[R].Delft,the Netherlands:Ministry of Transport,Public Works and Water Management,2001:22-41.
[36]PILARCZYK K W.Dike and revetment-design,maintenance and safety assessment[M].Netherland:Balkema A A,1998:443-462.
[37]李雷,王仁中,盛金保.溃坝后果严重程度评价模型研究[J].安全与环境学报,2006.6(1):1-4.
[38]焦宝仁.农业机械设计中的安全系数与可靠度[J].农业机械学报,1984(3):43-56.
[39]FORD,DAVID T.Uncertainties in risk analysis:six levels of treatment[J].Reliability Engineering and System Safety,1996:95-111.
[40]吴兴征,赵进勇.堤防结构风险分析理论及其应用[J].水利学报,2003(8):79-85.
[41]VRIJLING J K,VERHAGEN H J.Probabilistic Design of Hydraulic Structures[M].Delft,the Netherlands:Delft University of Technology,2005:25-28.
[42]HREINSSON,EGILL B.Monte Carlo based risk analysis in hydroelectric power system expansion planning in the presence of uncertainty in project cost and capacity[A].UPEC 2003,38th International Universities Power Engineering Conference[C],2003:308-311.
[43]高波,王银堂,胡四一.水库汛限水位调整与运用[J].水科学进展,2005,16(3):326-333.
[44]徐卫亚,刑万波,王凯,等.超标洪水下堤防失事风险评价及工程应用[J].水利水运工程学报,2006(3):39-44.
[45]陈凤兰,王长新.施工导流风险分析与计算[J].水科学进展,1996,7(4):361-366.
[46]胡志根,胡建明,李燕群.过水土石围堰下游护坡的溢流设计风险率模型[J].水科学进展,2003.14(5):622-625.
[47]MAILHOT A,VILLENEUVE J P.Mean-value second-order uncertainty analysis method:application to water quality modeling[J].Advances in Water Resources,2003,26:491-499.
[48]ERTO P,GIORGIO M.Assessing high reliability via Bayesian approach and accelerated tests[J].Reliability Engineering and System Safety,2002(76):301-310.
[49]王才君,郭生练,刘攀,等.三峡水库动态汛限水位洪水调度风险指标及综合评价模型研究[J].水科学进展,2004.15(3):376-381.
[50]金菊良,刘永芳,丁晶,等.城市防洪工程经济风险分析的蒙特卡洛法[J].长江科学院院报,2003(1):40-43.
[51]殷峻暹,陈守煜,梁国华.应用模糊决策分析理论确定城市防洪标准研究[J].水电能源科学,2001(3):52-54.
[52]张伟,唐德善,胡其勇等.模糊优选理论在城市防洪规划中的应用[J].水利经济,2003.21(3):3-5.
[53]陈守煜,郭瑜.模糊可变集合及其在防洪工程体系综合风险评价中的应用[J].水利水电科技进展,2005.25(6):4-8.
[54]陈新民,夏佳,罗国煜.黄河下游悬河决口灾害的风险分析与评价[J].水利学报,2000.28(10):12-16.
[55]邓曦东,王春燕.工程项目风险的灰色模糊评判方法研究[J].三峡大学学报(自然科学版),2007.29(1):49-53.
[56]胡国华,夏军.风险分析的灰色随机风险率方法研究[J].水利学报,2001(4):1-5.
[57]黄俊,傅湘,柯志波.层次分析法在城市防洪工程方案选择中的应用[J].水利与建筑工程学报,2007.5(1):52-55.
[58]JOWITT P W.A maximum entropy view of probability-distributed catchment models[J].Hydrol.Sci.J,1991,36(2):123-134.
[59]张继国,刘新仁.降雨时空分布不均匀性的信息熵分析[J].水科学进展,2000.11(2):133-137.
[60]王栋,朱元甡.最大熵原理在水文水资源科学中的应用[J].水科学进展,2001.12(3):424-430.
[61]李继清,张玉山.应用最大熵原理分析水利工程经济效益的风险[J].水科学进展,2003.14(5):626-630.
[62]MOSEH A.Common cause failures:an analysis methodology and examples[J].Reliability Engineering and System Safety,1991,34:249-292.
[63]中水淮河工程有限责任公司,中水北方勘测设计研究责任公司.《南水北调东线一期工程可行性研究报告(上、中、下册)》[R].2005,12.
[64]姜蓓蕾,刘恒,耿雷华,等.层次分解法在南水北调东线工程风险因子识别中的应用[J].水利水电技术,2009(3):65-67.
[65]曹云,堤防工程风险分析及其在板桥河堤防中的应用[D].南京:河海大学,2005.
[66]刑万波.堤防工程风险分析理论与实践研究[D].南京:河海大学,2006.
[67]王洁.堤防工程风险管理及其在秦淮河上的应用[D].南京:河海大学,2006.
[68]丁丽.堤防工程风险评价方法研究[D].南京:河海大学,2006.
[69]张秀勇.黄河下游堤防破坏机理与安全评价方法的研究[D].南京:河海大学,2005.
[70]李雷,王仁钟,盛金宝,等.大坝风险评价与风险管理[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2006:48-57.
[71]叶正伟.洪泽湖流域洪涝灾害的成灾机理分析与探讨[J].水文,2006,26(4):85-87.
[72]史展,周凤阳.洪泽湖的综合治理与开发[J].治淮,2002(7):11-13.
[73]韩成银,陈斌,吴天宏,等.洪泽湖大堤隐患成因及处理措施[J].水利水电科技进展,2002,22(4):49-51.
[74]张俊,李长斌,孙同领.淮河下游区治理重点工程-洪泽湖大堤加固[J].水利规划与设计,2004(2):42-47.
[75]楚恩国,卜贤晖.2004年洪泽湖流域干旱原因分析[J].水文,2006,26(5):80-82.
[76]陆小伟,王均.浅析淮河下游区防洪骨干工程[J].水利规划与设计,2004(2):32-35
[77]常虹.南水北调东线江苏境内工程管理模式研究[D].南京:河海大学,2005.
[78]张金才.洪泽湖-骆马湖-南四湖及淮-沂泾流丰枯遭遇探讨[J].水利科技,1998(7):31-34.
[79]高峰,赵培青,刘景华.南水北凋南四湖水位分析[J].中国农村水利水电,2005(8):36-37.
[80]贾德旺,陈洪年,吴晓华,等.南水北调东线工程南四湖调蓄区地质灾害评价及防治[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2007,18(2):50-53.
[81]秦爱香,杨玉林,郭国全,等.南水北调工程利用老湖区蓄水对周边地区的影响及对策[J].水利 经济,2002(5):51-55.
[82]马强.东平湖二级湖堤综合研究[D].济南:山东大学,2008.
[83]李洪书,陈志江,杨丽红,等.东平湖二级湖堤石护坡破坏原因及加固方案[J].山东水利,2005(12):30-31.
[84]高峰,李洪书,王永刚,等.东平湖二级湖堤级别的探讨[J].山东国土资源,2005,21(8):60-61.
[85]王宁,葛丽荣,高新平,等.东平湖滞洪区防洪决策方法应用探讨[J].山东水利,2000(3):21-22.
[816]闫德强.南水北调东线山东段工程风险及其应对研究[D].南京:河海大学,2006.
[87]顾慰慈编著.土石(堤)坝的设计与计算[M].北京:中国建材工业出版社,2006:236-321.