工业经济阶段增长推动城市空间跳跃拓展实证研究
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摘要
工业化启动了人类现代文明，工业经济也是当前城市经济的重要组成部分，工业经济发展和工业用地布局是城市结构优化和用地空间拓展的主要驱动力。本文主要目的就是要研究和探索工业经济与城市空间拓展之间的相关性，以及相互作用、共同演变的规律，以便准确把握城市建设和发展的趋势，科学预测城市空间拓展方向和布局结构。
论文基于对西方经济学、经济地理和城市规划等学科的理论研究，明晰工业经济增长与城市空间发展的关系，并以国内外城市发展案例为实证，特别是以武汉的发展为例，用计量模型分析、CAD技术、GIS辅助分析等方法，通过对工业产业和城市用地的数据分析和空间推导，研究工业经济增长主导城市空间拓展的机制。在此基础上，推演武汉未来工业经济发展趋势和城市空间发展框架，提出基于工业发展的城市空间管理建议。
本研究包含5个方面的主要内容：
第一部分：梳理和总结西方经济学、经济地理学和城市规划等领域有关工业经济增长特征和城市空间拓展模式的理论，从不同的角度探讨工业经济和城市空间发展规律，对论文的深入研究提供理论支撑。
第二部分：研究认为，工业经济对城市发展的意义在于：工业发展不但推动了社会进步和区域城市分工，工业还是城市的基础产业和重要经济门类，工业部门创造了大量就业，对维护社会稳定、提高技术进步、提升综合实力等具有重要作用。工业经济主要是通过用地需求、规模聚集、服务设施、配套设施等，影响城市的人口分布、功能聚集、设施布局和生态框架，进而主导了空间拓展模式、城市发展方向和用地布局结构。
第三部分：研究表明，因为要素规模投入与科技效率提升的交互作用，工业经济增长呈现阶段性螺旋上升特征。同时，工业产业对建设用地的需求及人口迁移的影响，以及在城市建设投入、基础设施布局、国家政策、城乡规划等因素的综合作用下，引导城市空间跳跃式拓展。工业经济阶段增长与城市空间跳跃拓展的节奏一致、同步演进。国内外城市实证，特别是对武汉案例的回归分析，充分证明了这一规律。
第四部分：根据钱纳里标准、库兹涅茨标准等工业发展阶段理论，对武汉城市发展判断认为，武汉市正处于工业化中后期。基于武汉所处的工业发展阶段，以及存在的问题、机遇、优势等情况，将武汉未来城市空间拓展分为两个阶段：第一阶段到2030年，在工业经济的推动下，武汉市选择在中心城外围发展6个“产城一体”的综合新城，形成“主城”+“新城”的发展模式；第二阶段到2050年，在产业链的辐射和联接下，依托对外干道和产业轴、城镇走廊等，形成中心城与武汉城市圈卫星城的分工布局体系，统筹和带动区域协调发展。本文预测了在工业产业链主导下的“2+2”、“3+6+3”、“3+4+3”等3种空间拓展模式。
第五部分：本文建议，在全球反思“去工业化”的浪潮下，中国更应重视工业经济发展，引导更多的社会资金、技术、人才投向工业经济领域。同时，还要依据工业经济发展需求构建城市空间框架，依据工业经济规律建设和管理城市，依据工业经济增长特征保障工业发展用地和服务设施配套。
As the driver of modern civilization and progress, Industrial economy is also part ofurban economy nowadays. The development of industry promotes the upgrading of urbanstructure and the way of spatial expansion. This article is designed to study thecorrelation between industrial economy and urban spatial expansion, so that the urbanspatial developing orientation and structure can be under control.
Based on economics and urban planning theories, this paper studies several cases ofurban development, especially about Wuhan with tools like econometric model analysis,CAD, GIS etc. to realize the mechanism that staged growth of industrial economy impelsthe leapfrog spatial expansion. In the end of paper, the urban special management ofWuhan is proposed on industrial development.
There are five parts in this paper:
Part1: A preliminary study of principles and theories of western economics,geonomics, and urban planning etc.
Part2: According to the research, industry may modify jobs and populationdistribution as well as urban basic industry and economic category, may create a largenumber of employment opportunities as well as maintain social stability, improvetechnical progress, promote comprehensive ability. Industry economy acts on populationdistribution, function aggregation, facility layout, and eco-structure by means of landdemand, scale aggregation, service facility, and infrastructure etc. to lead thedevelopment mode of space and land use layouts.
Part3: A lot of studies have shown that for the mutual promotion of increase inputand scientific efficiency, the industrial economy appears grow like ascendant helix, whilethe requirements of land and population migration, a mixed effects of urban constructioninputs, infrastructure layouts, national policies, and urban-rural planning lead to the urbanspace sprawl like leapfrog. Industry economy phased growth has the same pace with theleapfrog-urban-sprawl. In this paper, this could be fully proved by the case of Wuhancity.
Part4: According to the Chenery’s Model and Kuznets’ Model, Wuhan city isbeing in the later-stage of industrialization. Based on this view, and SWOT analysis, thispaper divides the development stage of Wuhan city into two parts. On the first stage, in2030, Wuhan will mainly develop six new towns in suburban area based on industrydevelopment. On the second stage, in2050, Wuhan will form the mutual structure ofcentral city and satellite towns. According the industry chain, there are three presettingurban sprawling types”2+2”,“3+6+3”,“3+4+3” in this article.
Part5: It is suggested that China should insist development of industry in the globaldeindustrialization atmosphere. China should lead more inputs to industry and respect thediscipline of industry development. Meanwhile China should form spatial structure on thebasis of demand of industry economy, construct and govern cities on the basis of industryeconomy discipline, and guarantee the industry land and service facilities on the basis ofthe characters of industry economy growth.
论文基于对西方经济学、经济地理和城市规划等学科的理论研究，明晰工业经济增长与城市空间发展的关系，并以国内外城市发展案例为实证，特别是以武汉的发展为例，用计量模型分析、CAD技术、GIS辅助分析等方法，通过对工业产业和城市用地的数据分析和空间推导，研究工业经济增长主导城市空间拓展的机制。在此基础上，推演武汉未来工业经济发展趋势和城市空间发展框架，提出基于工业发展的城市空间管理建议。
本研究包含5个方面的主要内容：
第一部分：梳理和总结西方经济学、经济地理学和城市规划等领域有关工业经济增长特征和城市空间拓展模式的理论，从不同的角度探讨工业经济和城市空间发展规律，对论文的深入研究提供理论支撑。
第二部分：研究认为，工业经济对城市发展的意义在于：工业发展不但推动了社会进步和区域城市分工，工业还是城市的基础产业和重要经济门类，工业部门创造了大量就业，对维护社会稳定、提高技术进步、提升综合实力等具有重要作用。工业经济主要是通过用地需求、规模聚集、服务设施、配套设施等，影响城市的人口分布、功能聚集、设施布局和生态框架，进而主导了空间拓展模式、城市发展方向和用地布局结构。
第三部分：研究表明，因为要素规模投入与科技效率提升的交互作用，工业经济增长呈现阶段性螺旋上升特征。同时，工业产业对建设用地的需求及人口迁移的影响，以及在城市建设投入、基础设施布局、国家政策、城乡规划等因素的综合作用下，引导城市空间跳跃式拓展。工业经济阶段增长与城市空间跳跃拓展的节奏一致、同步演进。国内外城市实证，特别是对武汉案例的回归分析，充分证明了这一规律。
第四部分：根据钱纳里标准、库兹涅茨标准等工业发展阶段理论，对武汉城市发展判断认为，武汉市正处于工业化中后期。基于武汉所处的工业发展阶段，以及存在的问题、机遇、优势等情况，将武汉未来城市空间拓展分为两个阶段：第一阶段到2030年，在工业经济的推动下，武汉市选择在中心城外围发展6个“产城一体”的综合新城，形成“主城”+“新城”的发展模式；第二阶段到2050年，在产业链的辐射和联接下，依托对外干道和产业轴、城镇走廊等，形成中心城与武汉城市圈卫星城的分工布局体系，统筹和带动区域协调发展。本文预测了在工业产业链主导下的“2+2”、“3+6+3”、“3+4+3”等3种空间拓展模式。
第五部分：本文建议，在全球反思“去工业化”的浪潮下，中国更应重视工业经济发展，引导更多的社会资金、技术、人才投向工业经济领域。同时，还要依据工业经济发展需求构建城市空间框架，依据工业经济规律建设和管理城市，依据工业经济增长特征保障工业发展用地和服务设施配套。
As the driver of modern civilization and progress, Industrial economy is also part ofurban economy nowadays. The development of industry promotes the upgrading of urbanstructure and the way of spatial expansion. This article is designed to study thecorrelation between industrial economy and urban spatial expansion, so that the urbanspatial developing orientation and structure can be under control.
Based on economics and urban planning theories, this paper studies several cases ofurban development, especially about Wuhan with tools like econometric model analysis,CAD, GIS etc. to realize the mechanism that staged growth of industrial economy impelsthe leapfrog spatial expansion. In the end of paper, the urban special management ofWuhan is proposed on industrial development.
There are five parts in this paper:
Part1: A preliminary study of principles and theories of western economics,geonomics, and urban planning etc.
Part2: According to the research, industry may modify jobs and populationdistribution as well as urban basic industry and economic category, may create a largenumber of employment opportunities as well as maintain social stability, improvetechnical progress, promote comprehensive ability. Industry economy acts on populationdistribution, function aggregation, facility layout, and eco-structure by means of landdemand, scale aggregation, service facility, and infrastructure etc. to lead thedevelopment mode of space and land use layouts.
Part3: A lot of studies have shown that for the mutual promotion of increase inputand scientific efficiency, the industrial economy appears grow like ascendant helix, whilethe requirements of land and population migration, a mixed effects of urban constructioninputs, infrastructure layouts, national policies, and urban-rural planning lead to the urbanspace sprawl like leapfrog. Industry economy phased growth has the same pace with theleapfrog-urban-sprawl. In this paper, this could be fully proved by the case of Wuhancity.
Part4: According to the Chenery’s Model and Kuznets’ Model, Wuhan city isbeing in the later-stage of industrialization. Based on this view, and SWOT analysis, thispaper divides the development stage of Wuhan city into two parts. On the first stage, in2030, Wuhan will mainly develop six new towns in suburban area based on industrydevelopment. On the second stage, in2050, Wuhan will form the mutual structure ofcentral city and satellite towns. According the industry chain, there are three presettingurban sprawling types”2+2”,“3+6+3”,“3+4+3” in this article.
Part5: It is suggested that China should insist development of industry in the globaldeindustrialization atmosphere. China should lead more inputs to industry and respect thediscipline of industry development. Meanwhile China should form spatial structure on thebasis of demand of industry economy, construct and govern cities on the basis of industryeconomy discipline, and guarantee the industry land and service facilities on the basis ofthe characters of industry economy growth.
引文
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