面向校园疏散的均衡模型与疏导优化方法研究
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摘要
在紧急疏散特别是在校园疏散情况下,由于疏散对象所处的空间位置各不相同,其对应突发事件下各自时空路径的判断和选择也各不相同。在资源有限的校园环境中,如何合理有效地优化分配疏散对象各自的时空路径,从个体需求和系统均衡角度提高紧急疏散性能,是目前现代交通学科、人工智能学科、计算机学科、现代通信学科、以及公共卫生与安全等领域所共同面临的一个重要研究问题与急迫课题。在这方面,传统的交通流分配模型大多数是从疏散决策者角度出发,以损失一部分个体利益为代价,追求疏散的整体效率最高,忽略了疏散个体在实际情况下的需求。本文基于兼顾系统效率与个体需求的均衡疏散模型,围绕校园环境下的教学楼室内疏散与校园路网疏散进行研究,主要研究内容包括以下几个方面：
1)建立了兼顾系统效率与个体需求的紧急疏散均衡模型。传统的疏散规划方案大多是从决策者的角度出发,制定疏散平均时间最短或其它目标的疏散方案,但在实际情况下,每个人都倾向于寻找对自己最有利的路径,从而使传统疏散方案在实用性方面有些不足。针对这种情况,本文借助用户均衡和演化算法的思想,兼顾系统效率与个体需求,建立基于遗传算法的演化Wardrop疏散均衡模型；同时,为了对疏散过程的均衡程度进行度量,本文提出了均衡指数的概念,保证了紧急疏散决策的合理高效。
2)基于元胞自动机模型,提出了“稳度”的概念,建立了面向教学楼室内疏散的演化均衡模型。学校教学楼作为一个特殊的场所,具有它独特的特点：建筑物室内布局复杂,人员相对集中,基于课表的人员分布固定。之前的室内疏散模型多是对人员疏散进行模拟仿真,注重微观方面的行为,但在宏观的整体人员疏散规划有所欠缺。本文在元胞自动机模型研究的基础上,结合社会力和势能模型,分析了出口,墙以及人与人之间的相互作用。在此基础上,从宏观角度出发,针对人与人之间的交互合作,提出用来描绘疏散过程的“稳度”的概念,来指导疏散行为。最后借助演化均衡模型思想,从个体需求与整体效率角度出发,建立了教学楼室内疏散的演化均衡模型。
3)针对校园人车混合疏散的特点,对均衡模型系统优化目标进行扩展,提出了基于校园人车交互规则的多目标疏散均衡模型。校园路网由于缺少红绿灯,道路上人车混行,在进行疏散时容易造成拥堵,特别是在交通路口方面。本文从校园路网人车混合疏散特征出发,通过对拥挤度和路口转向模型进行分析,研究了人车混合疏散行为规则。考虑到现实疏散中的多方面要求,借助多目标优化理论,对均衡模型的系统优化目标进行扩展,建立了基于校园人车交互规则的多目标疏散均衡模型。
4)对前面提出的教学楼室内疏散均衡模型和室外路网多目标疏散均衡模型进行实验验证和结果分析。本文开发了CAEE《大型场馆室内疏散规划软件》,并将其与Pathfinder在疏散过程、疏散清空时间等方面进行比较。在此基础上,将其应用于武汉理工大学新一教学楼,进行模拟仿真,建立均衡疏散路径规划,并与其他室内疏散方法进行对比。在校园室外路网疏散方面,本文将改进的多目标疏散均衡模型应用到武汉理工大学新校区路网疏散规划中,进行模拟仿真,在整个校园路网交通负载均衡的前提下,从疏散总时间和疏散清空时间进行统计分析,并与其他疏散模型进行对比验证。
In the case of emergency evacuation, especially on the campus, as the positions of the evacuation objects are different, the corresponding judgments and route choices of their spatial-temporal routes vary from one to another. Concerning the campus evacuation with limited resources, it is very important to reasonably optimize the assignment of spatial-temporal routes for each evacuee and improve the performance of emergency evacuation from the perspective of individual need and system efficiency. Nowadays it becomes an important research subject and urgent issue in the fields of modern traffic discipline, artificial intelligence, computer science, modern communication discipline, as well as public health and safety. For this issue, most of the traditional traffic assignment models consider from the perspective of evacuation decision makers and pursue the highest system efficiency with the loss of someone's interest as the price, ignoring the individual need in the practical environment. This dissertation takes into account the evacuation equilibrium model concerning the balance of both individual need and system efficiency, and makes research on indoor evacuation in teaching buildings and outdoor evacuation in the road network on campus. The research content and results include the following aspects:
1) Taking into account the individual need and system efficiency, this dissertation establishes an evacuation equilibrium model which can improve the practicality of evacuation planning programs. Most of the traditional route planning programs consider the evacuation planning problem from the perspective of evacuation decision makers with the shortest time or other target. But in real situation, each individual tends to look for his most favorable route, which makes the original evacuation plan loses its viability. For this case, with the idea of evolutionary algorithm and user equilibrium which means each person will choose his favorable path in the current circumstances, this dissertation establishes the evolutionary wardrop equilibrium. In the meantime, in order to assess the equilibrium degree of evacuation progress, the equilibrium index is proposed and it provides more effective and feasible evacuation plans for decision makers.
2) Based on the cellular automata model, this dissertation proposes the concept of "steady" and establishes an indoor evacuation equilibrium model for teaching buildings. As a special place on campus, the teaching building has its unique characteristics:the building's layout is relatively complex, the distribution of students is relatively concentrated and the distribution of students is fixed based on school timetable. The traditional indoor emergency evacuation models are mainly the simulation of evacuees, which focus on the microscopic behavior, lacking of description of behavior interact from the macroscopic level and route planning. Based on the research of cellular automata model and the social force model, this dissertation analyzes the interactions between people and people, people and wall, the distance to the exit. Moreover, starting from a macro perspective, the concept of "steady" is proposed to describe the evacuation, which can guide the whole evacuation. Finally, with the help of evolutionary wardrop equilibrium, the indoor equilibrium evacuation model is established by considering the individual need and system efficiency.
3) Considering the characteristics of mixed traffic evacuation in the campus, this dissertation proposes a multi-objective equilibrium model for campus evacuation in road networks based on the interaction between people and vehicles. On campus, when the typical emergency events happen, people and vehicles are likely to evacuate together due to the lack of traffic lights, and easily to cause congestion, especially at traffic junctions. By fully considering the characteristics of campus road network and analyzing both the mixed flow crowding degree and the junction steering model, this dissertation establishes the emergency evacuation model of mixed traffic flow. By considering constructing the multi-objective optimal method for mixed flow, the multi-objective evacuation equilibrium model is established for mixed flow on campus.
4) This dissertation develops software for indoor evacuation in large buildings, and makes experimental verifications and result analyses to the indoor evacuation model mentioned above in teaching buildings and outdoor evacuation in road network. The software is named "routes planning software for indoor evacuation in large building", referred to as CAEE, and is compared with Pathfinder. The result of the evacuation process and evacuation clearance time proves that CAEE is reasonable and effective. On this basis, CAEE is applied to Xinyi teaching building in Wuhan University of Technology to simulate the evacuation process and establish the evacuation equilibrium routes planning. After comparing with other indoor evacuation methods, the software shows the advantage in evacuation route planning. As for outdoor evacuation in the road network, the multi-objective evacuation equilibrium model is applied to the evacuation routes planning in campus of Wuhan University of Technology to carry out the simulation. Under the condition of the balanced road traffic load, statistical analyses are made on the total evacuation time and evacuation clearance time of this model. Compared with others, the results prove that the multi-objective evacuation equilibrium model is more reasonable and efficient.
1)建立了兼顾系统效率与个体需求的紧急疏散均衡模型。传统的疏散规划方案大多是从决策者的角度出发,制定疏散平均时间最短或其它目标的疏散方案,但在实际情况下,每个人都倾向于寻找对自己最有利的路径,从而使传统疏散方案在实用性方面有些不足。针对这种情况,本文借助用户均衡和演化算法的思想,兼顾系统效率与个体需求,建立基于遗传算法的演化Wardrop疏散均衡模型；同时,为了对疏散过程的均衡程度进行度量,本文提出了均衡指数的概念,保证了紧急疏散决策的合理高效。
2)基于元胞自动机模型,提出了“稳度”的概念,建立了面向教学楼室内疏散的演化均衡模型。学校教学楼作为一个特殊的场所,具有它独特的特点：建筑物室内布局复杂,人员相对集中,基于课表的人员分布固定。之前的室内疏散模型多是对人员疏散进行模拟仿真,注重微观方面的行为,但在宏观的整体人员疏散规划有所欠缺。本文在元胞自动机模型研究的基础上,结合社会力和势能模型,分析了出口,墙以及人与人之间的相互作用。在此基础上,从宏观角度出发,针对人与人之间的交互合作,提出用来描绘疏散过程的“稳度”的概念,来指导疏散行为。最后借助演化均衡模型思想,从个体需求与整体效率角度出发,建立了教学楼室内疏散的演化均衡模型。
3)针对校园人车混合疏散的特点,对均衡模型系统优化目标进行扩展,提出了基于校园人车交互规则的多目标疏散均衡模型。校园路网由于缺少红绿灯,道路上人车混行,在进行疏散时容易造成拥堵,特别是在交通路口方面。本文从校园路网人车混合疏散特征出发,通过对拥挤度和路口转向模型进行分析,研究了人车混合疏散行为规则。考虑到现实疏散中的多方面要求,借助多目标优化理论,对均衡模型的系统优化目标进行扩展,建立了基于校园人车交互规则的多目标疏散均衡模型。
4)对前面提出的教学楼室内疏散均衡模型和室外路网多目标疏散均衡模型进行实验验证和结果分析。本文开发了CAEE《大型场馆室内疏散规划软件》,并将其与Pathfinder在疏散过程、疏散清空时间等方面进行比较。在此基础上,将其应用于武汉理工大学新一教学楼,进行模拟仿真,建立均衡疏散路径规划,并与其他室内疏散方法进行对比。在校园室外路网疏散方面,本文将改进的多目标疏散均衡模型应用到武汉理工大学新校区路网疏散规划中,进行模拟仿真,在整个校园路网交通负载均衡的前提下,从疏散总时间和疏散清空时间进行统计分析,并与其他疏散模型进行对比验证。
In the case of emergency evacuation, especially on the campus, as the positions of the evacuation objects are different, the corresponding judgments and route choices of their spatial-temporal routes vary from one to another. Concerning the campus evacuation with limited resources, it is very important to reasonably optimize the assignment of spatial-temporal routes for each evacuee and improve the performance of emergency evacuation from the perspective of individual need and system efficiency. Nowadays it becomes an important research subject and urgent issue in the fields of modern traffic discipline, artificial intelligence, computer science, modern communication discipline, as well as public health and safety. For this issue, most of the traditional traffic assignment models consider from the perspective of evacuation decision makers and pursue the highest system efficiency with the loss of someone's interest as the price, ignoring the individual need in the practical environment. This dissertation takes into account the evacuation equilibrium model concerning the balance of both individual need and system efficiency, and makes research on indoor evacuation in teaching buildings and outdoor evacuation in the road network on campus. The research content and results include the following aspects:
1) Taking into account the individual need and system efficiency, this dissertation establishes an evacuation equilibrium model which can improve the practicality of evacuation planning programs. Most of the traditional route planning programs consider the evacuation planning problem from the perspective of evacuation decision makers with the shortest time or other target. But in real situation, each individual tends to look for his most favorable route, which makes the original evacuation plan loses its viability. For this case, with the idea of evolutionary algorithm and user equilibrium which means each person will choose his favorable path in the current circumstances, this dissertation establishes the evolutionary wardrop equilibrium. In the meantime, in order to assess the equilibrium degree of evacuation progress, the equilibrium index is proposed and it provides more effective and feasible evacuation plans for decision makers.
2) Based on the cellular automata model, this dissertation proposes the concept of "steady" and establishes an indoor evacuation equilibrium model for teaching buildings. As a special place on campus, the teaching building has its unique characteristics:the building's layout is relatively complex, the distribution of students is relatively concentrated and the distribution of students is fixed based on school timetable. The traditional indoor emergency evacuation models are mainly the simulation of evacuees, which focus on the microscopic behavior, lacking of description of behavior interact from the macroscopic level and route planning. Based on the research of cellular automata model and the social force model, this dissertation analyzes the interactions between people and people, people and wall, the distance to the exit. Moreover, starting from a macro perspective, the concept of "steady" is proposed to describe the evacuation, which can guide the whole evacuation. Finally, with the help of evolutionary wardrop equilibrium, the indoor equilibrium evacuation model is established by considering the individual need and system efficiency.
3) Considering the characteristics of mixed traffic evacuation in the campus, this dissertation proposes a multi-objective equilibrium model for campus evacuation in road networks based on the interaction between people and vehicles. On campus, when the typical emergency events happen, people and vehicles are likely to evacuate together due to the lack of traffic lights, and easily to cause congestion, especially at traffic junctions. By fully considering the characteristics of campus road network and analyzing both the mixed flow crowding degree and the junction steering model, this dissertation establishes the emergency evacuation model of mixed traffic flow. By considering constructing the multi-objective optimal method for mixed flow, the multi-objective evacuation equilibrium model is established for mixed flow on campus.
4) This dissertation develops software for indoor evacuation in large buildings, and makes experimental verifications and result analyses to the indoor evacuation model mentioned above in teaching buildings and outdoor evacuation in road network. The software is named "routes planning software for indoor evacuation in large building", referred to as CAEE, and is compared with Pathfinder. The result of the evacuation process and evacuation clearance time proves that CAEE is reasonable and effective. On this basis, CAEE is applied to Xinyi teaching building in Wuhan University of Technology to simulate the evacuation process and establish the evacuation equilibrium routes planning. After comparing with other indoor evacuation methods, the software shows the advantage in evacuation route planning. As for outdoor evacuation in the road network, the multi-objective evacuation equilibrium model is applied to the evacuation routes planning in campus of Wuhan University of Technology to carry out the simulation. Under the condition of the balanced road traffic load, statistical analyses are made on the total evacuation time and evacuation clearance time of this model. Compared with others, the results prove that the multi-objective evacuation equilibrium model is more reasonable and efficient.
引文
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