鲜水河断裂带地震破裂段落的边界特征研究
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摘要
作为“位于亚洲大陆东南部强烈变形场中的左旋剪切破裂带,撕裂了高耸的青藏高原的东南部边缘,在中国大陆内部新构造格局中占据这突出的位置”的青藏高原东缘一条重要的左旋走滑断裂带,鲜水河断裂带有着丰富的历史地震记录、较清晰的地貌特征和地表破裂形迹,是开展活动断裂的定量研究、检验地震破裂分段模型——独立破裂模型和级联破裂模型的理想场所,一直以来都吸引着很多国内外学者的关注。对鲜水河断裂的深入研究是进一步认识青藏高原东缘运动学和动力学机制的重要途径,也是理解块体边界大型走滑断裂带强震复发规律的窗口。
前人在鲜水河断裂带已取得大量研究成果,地质方面主要针对断裂的几何学、运动学特征展开,多位学者对鲜水河断裂带进行了分段研究,但少有对段落边界进行特别关注。而段落边界的研究程度对于是否能够更好地认识断裂活动特征及其与强震发生之间的关系具有重要意义。因此论文选择鲜水河断裂带段落边界作为主要研究对象,以期能够在这一方面又更进一步的认识。
由于论文研究区是研究程度相对较高的活动断裂带,这一前提一方面为研究提供了良好的基础条件,另一方面也对论文提出了更高的要求。论文主要从破裂分段边界特征分析的角度,着重于构建段落边界的演化模型,讨论边界特征与地震分段破裂行为的关系,进一步认识鲜水河断裂带断裂活动特征和强震复发规律。在此过程中取得了以下一些进展:
1)从断裂活动、地貌发育以及地层沉积等多方面对对鲜水河断裂带段落边界进行了比较详细的分析,对段落边界的演化过程与断裂活动的关系进行了探讨。
2)从段落边界演化阶段的分析来反映断裂带段落单元分段破裂行为特征。
3)对鲜水河断裂带地震危险性进行了简要的评估。
本文的工作主要是地质学、地貌学以及地层学等方法的综合运用来研究段落边界的活动习性,还原段落边界的演化过程,结合历史地震破裂及古地震破裂等资料,分析鲜水河断裂带地震破裂分段行为,并且进一步讨论段落边界的稳定性,为区域地震危险性分析提供依据;同时,通过本项研究可以为进一步理解大型走滑断裂带的地震破裂过程、空间迁移规律,为建立川滇活动块体的运动学模型提供科学依据。在分析和整理前人大量研究成果的基础上,基于对断裂带地质、地貌特征的调查分析,从构造地貌的角度结合地质学、测量学及年代学等方法,综合运用遥感、GIS、地质、测量等多种手段,认识鲜水河断裂带段落边界断裂活动特征、地貌特征以及地层沉积特征等,还原段落边界演化历史,获得其演化模型,并进一步讨论边界演化与断裂分段破裂行为之间的关系,主要获得以下几点认识:
1、关于鲜水河断裂带的破裂分段
综合鲜水河断裂带几何展布、历史地震破裂、地震活动、深部结构、断层滑动速率、古地震、强震复发特征以及最晚一次地震的离逝时间等资料,对鲜水河断裂带进行破裂分段,总共分为8个段落,分别为炉霍段、道孚段、乾宁段、雅拉河段、色拉哈段、折多塘段、雪门坎段和磨西段。
2、关于鲜水河断裂带破裂分段边界特征及其与地震分段破裂行为关系
1)断裂活动证据说明鲜水河断裂带的炉霍段有向南东扩展的趋势,道孚段存在向南东迁移的趋势;在虾拉沱盆地中两条边界断裂活动的重叠区域具有由北西向南东迁移的特点;盆地阶地发育及地层沉积方面体现盆地的中心具有由北西向南东迁移的特点。盆地两侧边界主断裂活动强度的迁移控制了盆地的发育过程和最新沉积中心的迁移,使其在高长宽比下仍在发育中,而尚未到达消亡期。炉霍段和道孚段上7.5级左右的地震可以被虾拉沱盆地控制,但炉霍段上更大震级的地震可能加速炉霍段的向南东扩展,使两条断裂贯通,产生级联破裂。
2)鲜水河断裂带的道孚段和乾宁段的最新活动性具有由北西向南东迁移的趋势;在道孚盆地中两条边界断裂活动具有向盆地内部迁移的特点,且边界断裂的活动受到以子龙断裂为代表的系列横向正断层的影响。盆地阶地发育及地层沉积方面特征体现了盆地的沉积中心由盆地东侧向盆地中心迁移的特点。盆地两侧的边界主断裂活动性的迁移控制了盆地的发育过程和沉积中心的迁移。道孚段上和乾宁段上7.5级左右的地震可以被道孚盆地控制,但两段未来贯通可能性极大,可能发生7.5-8级的地震,使两条段落单元产生级联破裂。
3)乾宁盆地的演化受鲜水河断裂带乾宁段和中古断裂的控制,且目前处于发育的初期。目前的沉积中心位于盆地的南东侧。本拉分区与相邻断裂的间距超过10km,可以认为是永久性段落边界,足以控制相邻段落破裂的扩展。
4)折多山隆起的挤压阶区范围的鲜水河断裂带段落单元相距宽度9-13km不等,本区为鲜水河断裂带永久性段落边界。雅拉河段与雪门坎段之间存在着断层走向约10-15°弯曲,这一弯曲在以往的历史地震破裂、两侧运动学性质(走滑和带有逆冲分量走滑)、滑动速率和贡嘎山局部挤压隆升等方面反映出为一个永久性段落边界,两侧没有发生级联破裂的可能性。
5)雅家埂拉分区的段落边界为非持久性段落边界,不具有阻止强震扩展的能力。
6)鲜水河断裂带北西段的虾拉沱盆地和道孚盆地具有段落边界的功能,但不具有持久性和稳定性,有产生级联破裂的可能。三段同时完全破裂的最大震级为8.0级左右。惠远寺盆地以及折多山隆起可以作为永久性段落边界,阻止破裂扩展,鲜水河断裂带中段的折多塘段、色拉哈段和雅拉河段主要表现为单独破裂模式。鲜水河断裂带南东段的雅家埂拉分区有地震破裂贯通的历史,因此该段落边界也为非持久性段落边界,雪门坎段和磨西段可以产生级联破裂。
3、关于鲜水河断裂带潜在震源区划分与震级上限分析
根据潜在震源区划分的原则和依据,鲜水河断裂带可以划分为八个潜在震源区单元,分别为炉霍段、道孚段、乾宁段、雅拉河段、色拉哈段、折多塘段、学门坎段和磨西段,最大震级上限分别为Ms7.7级、7.7级、7.5级、7.7级、7.3级、7.3级、7.5级和7.6级.;考虑到级联破裂的可能性,将断裂带划分为五个主要的潜在震源区:北西段,色拉哈段、折多塘段、雅拉河段和南东段,最高震级上限分别为Ms7.9级、7.7级、7.3级、7.3级、7.8级。
As an important left strike-slip fault zone on the southeast margin of the Tibetan plateau which is in the strong deformation field of the Asian continent, there are abundant history earthquake records, distinct tectonic geomorphology and surface rupture feathers on the Xianshuihe Fault zone, whereso it is an ideal is a perfect region for quantitative study of active faults and test of seismic rupture model test ----the independent rupture model or cascade rupture model. This fault zone attracts much attention of geologists all around the world. Further research about the Xianshuihe fault zone is a valid way to know more about the kinematics and dynamics mechanisms of the eastern margin of the Tibetan plateau, and also is a good window of understanding recurrence of major earthquakes on the large strike slip fault zone at block boundaries.
Lots of achievements have obtained about the Xianshuihe fault zone, especially in geology. Many studies are concentrated on the geometry, dynamitic feathers on the fault zone, besides that, several scholars have studied the segmentation of the Xianshuihe fault zone, but the segment boundary is hardly been focused on. while, the research degree of the segment boundary is very important for knowing better about the fault activity and its relationship with strong earthquakes. So we choose the segment boundaries of the Xianshuihe Fault zone as the main study object for this thesis, and expect to know more about them.
There have been numerous research of active fault in this region, which suppliy a good foundation as well as a higher requirement for this work., The thesis begins with the characteristics of the segment boundaries of the Xianshuihe fault zone ,building their evolution models, then discussing the relationship between the boundary feathers and the seismic rupture of fault segments. Finally, it discusses the fault acvitvity feathers of the Xianshuihe fault zone and the recurrence rules of strong earthquakes. the main aspects of this thesis rae, some progresses are as follows:
1)I have analyzed the feathers of the segment boundaries of the Xianshuihe Fault zone from three aspects including fault activities, tectonic geomorphic feathers and stratum sedimentation feathers,and furthermore, discussed the relationship between the evolution process of the segmentation boundary and the fault activities.
2)I have determined the segmentation rupture behave features by analyzing of the evolution stages of segment boundaries.
3) Seismic risk of the Xianshuihe fault zone has been evaluated briefly.
By comprehensive application of geology, geomorphology, stratigraphy and so on, this work studied the activity law of fault segment boundaries, and reconstructed evolution process. Combined with the data of historical earthquake and paleoearthquake rupture, it analyzed earthquake rupture segmentation behavior for the rupture zone of the Xianshuihe, and then studied the stability of segment boundaries and provided the basis for analyzing the hazard of regional earthquake. Meanwhile, the above study result could be used as the scientific basis of understanding for the earthquake rupturing processes of large scale strike-slip fault zones and their special migration law, and modeling the kinematics model for Chuandian active block. Base on gathering and analyzing available research results, I investigated and analyzed the geological and geomorphic characteristics of the rupture zone. Combined with geology, surveying, chronology and so on, by means of remote sensing, GIS, geology, geodesy and so on, I studied the activity features, the geomorphologic features and the sedimentary pattern of the segment boundary in the Xianshuihe fault zone, and recovered and modeled the evolution history for the fault segment boundary, and then discussed the relationship between the segment boundary evolution and the segmental rupture behavior of the fault zone. Overall, some conclusions can be made below:
1、Rupture segmentation of the Xianshuihe fault zone
Combined with the data of the geometrical distribution pattern of the fault zone, historical seismic ruptures seismic activity, deep structure, fault sipping rates, paleoearthquakes, recurrence law of major shocks, and the elapsing time of the last seismic event, the Xianshuihe fault zone is divided into 8 segments ,i.e Luhuo segment, Daofu segment, Qianning segment, Yalahe segment, Selaha segment, Zheduotang segment, Xuemenkan segment and Moxi segment.
2、Segment boundary features and the relationship with segments rupture behavior.
1)The fault activity evidence indicates that, the Luhuo segment of Xianshuihe fault zone has a trend of south-east extending, and the Daofu segment has the trend to migrate toward south-east; In the Xialatuo basin, there is a moving trend from northwest to southeast at the overlapped area of the two active boundary faults.According to well developed basin terrace characteristics and stratigraphic sedimentary feature, it can be seen that the new sedimentary center had moved from northwest to southeast. The motion of the major boundary faulting strength center controlled the basin evolution history and the moving of new sedimentary center, and the basin is still developing with a high ratio of length to width. The Xialatuo basin could control M7.5 earthquakes at the Luhuo segment and Daofu segment, but the greater earthquakes could accelerate the southeasetward of the Luhuo segment, and make the two segment link andgenerate cascade faults.
2)The latest activity of the Daofu segment and Qianning segment of the Xianshuihe fault zone has a tendency of migration from north to south.The fault activity in the Xlialatuo basin migrated from outside to inner of the basin, and the activity of the boundary fault is affected by the normal faults in the basin include Zilong fault. Feathers of the terrace development and stratigraphic sedimentary reflect that the deposit center migrates from the east part of the basin to the center, which is controlled by the boundary faults activity on two sides of the basin. Earthquakes of ~M 7.5 on the Daofu segment and Qianning segment are restricted by the Daofu basin, but it seems highly possible that the two segments rupture together, with earthquakes of M 7.5-8,and the two segments rupture in a cascade manner.
3)The evolution of the Qianning Basin is controlled by the Qianning segment of the Xianshuihe fault zone and Zhonggu fault,and the basin is now in the intial stage of development. The deposit center is in the southeast of the basin. The apart distance of this pull apart step-over and the adjacent segment south of it is more than 10km ,a thus , it can be regarded as a persistent segment boundary.
? 4) The apart distance between the segments of the Xianshuihe fault zone around the Zheduoshan pop-up range are from 9 to 13km, and the segment boundary here can be considered as a persistent boundary of the Xianshuihe fault zone. There is a bend of 10-15°between the Yalahe segment and Xuemenkan segment of the Xianshuihe fault zone. Differences of the historical seismic rupture feathers, kinematic feathers (strike slip or reverse with strike slip) and slip rates between the two segments together with the local compressive uplift of the Gongga Mont. show that the bend is a permanent segment boundary, and it is almost impossible for the two segments to rupture together in a cascade mode .
5)The segment boundary of the Yajiageng pull apart step-over is a nonpersistent boundary, which can’t stopt propagations of strong earthquakes.
6)The Xialatuo basin and Daofu basin in the northwest of the Xianshuihe fault zone can be considered as a segment boundary, without persistence and stability,which may propagate, and the maximum magnitude would be M8.0 if the three segments all rupture through a at the same event. The Huiyuansi basin and Zheduoshan pop-up are persistent boundaries,resisting seismic ruptures propagating from each other, and so the Zheduotang segment,Selaha segment, and Yalahe segment on the middle of Xianshuihe Fault zone would rupture independently. The Yajiageng pull-apart step over on the southeast segment of the Xianshuihe fault zone has been overlapped before, and so it is an nonpersistent segment boundary.The Xuemenkan segment and the Moxi segment can be ruptured in a cascade rupture way.
3 The potential seismic source zone and the upper limit magnitude analysis
According to the principle and rule of the potential seismic source zoning, the Xianshuihe fault zone can be divided into eight basic potential seismic source zones as Luhuo segment, Daofu segment, Qianning segment, Yalahe segment, Selaha segment, Zheduotang segment, Xuemenkan segment and Moxi segment. In this case, their upper limit magnitudes are Ms7.7,Ms 7.7,Ms 7.5,Ms 7.7、Ms 7.3,Ms 7.3,Ms 7.5 and Ms 7.6,respectively. By considering the cascade rupture possibility, five main potential seismic source zones can be determined, and the upper magnitudes for which are Ms7.9、Ms 7.7,Ms 7.3,Ms 7.3,Ms7.8, respectively.
前人在鲜水河断裂带已取得大量研究成果,地质方面主要针对断裂的几何学、运动学特征展开,多位学者对鲜水河断裂带进行了分段研究,但少有对段落边界进行特别关注。而段落边界的研究程度对于是否能够更好地认识断裂活动特征及其与强震发生之间的关系具有重要意义。因此论文选择鲜水河断裂带段落边界作为主要研究对象,以期能够在这一方面又更进一步的认识。
由于论文研究区是研究程度相对较高的活动断裂带,这一前提一方面为研究提供了良好的基础条件,另一方面也对论文提出了更高的要求。论文主要从破裂分段边界特征分析的角度,着重于构建段落边界的演化模型,讨论边界特征与地震分段破裂行为的关系,进一步认识鲜水河断裂带断裂活动特征和强震复发规律。在此过程中取得了以下一些进展:
1)从断裂活动、地貌发育以及地层沉积等多方面对对鲜水河断裂带段落边界进行了比较详细的分析,对段落边界的演化过程与断裂活动的关系进行了探讨。
2)从段落边界演化阶段的分析来反映断裂带段落单元分段破裂行为特征。
3)对鲜水河断裂带地震危险性进行了简要的评估。
本文的工作主要是地质学、地貌学以及地层学等方法的综合运用来研究段落边界的活动习性,还原段落边界的演化过程,结合历史地震破裂及古地震破裂等资料,分析鲜水河断裂带地震破裂分段行为,并且进一步讨论段落边界的稳定性,为区域地震危险性分析提供依据;同时,通过本项研究可以为进一步理解大型走滑断裂带的地震破裂过程、空间迁移规律,为建立川滇活动块体的运动学模型提供科学依据。在分析和整理前人大量研究成果的基础上,基于对断裂带地质、地貌特征的调查分析,从构造地貌的角度结合地质学、测量学及年代学等方法,综合运用遥感、GIS、地质、测量等多种手段,认识鲜水河断裂带段落边界断裂活动特征、地貌特征以及地层沉积特征等,还原段落边界演化历史,获得其演化模型,并进一步讨论边界演化与断裂分段破裂行为之间的关系,主要获得以下几点认识:
1、关于鲜水河断裂带的破裂分段
综合鲜水河断裂带几何展布、历史地震破裂、地震活动、深部结构、断层滑动速率、古地震、强震复发特征以及最晚一次地震的离逝时间等资料,对鲜水河断裂带进行破裂分段,总共分为8个段落,分别为炉霍段、道孚段、乾宁段、雅拉河段、色拉哈段、折多塘段、雪门坎段和磨西段。
2、关于鲜水河断裂带破裂分段边界特征及其与地震分段破裂行为关系
1)断裂活动证据说明鲜水河断裂带的炉霍段有向南东扩展的趋势,道孚段存在向南东迁移的趋势;在虾拉沱盆地中两条边界断裂活动的重叠区域具有由北西向南东迁移的特点;盆地阶地发育及地层沉积方面体现盆地的中心具有由北西向南东迁移的特点。盆地两侧边界主断裂活动强度的迁移控制了盆地的发育过程和最新沉积中心的迁移,使其在高长宽比下仍在发育中,而尚未到达消亡期。炉霍段和道孚段上7.5级左右的地震可以被虾拉沱盆地控制,但炉霍段上更大震级的地震可能加速炉霍段的向南东扩展,使两条断裂贯通,产生级联破裂。
2)鲜水河断裂带的道孚段和乾宁段的最新活动性具有由北西向南东迁移的趋势;在道孚盆地中两条边界断裂活动具有向盆地内部迁移的特点,且边界断裂的活动受到以子龙断裂为代表的系列横向正断层的影响。盆地阶地发育及地层沉积方面特征体现了盆地的沉积中心由盆地东侧向盆地中心迁移的特点。盆地两侧的边界主断裂活动性的迁移控制了盆地的发育过程和沉积中心的迁移。道孚段上和乾宁段上7.5级左右的地震可以被道孚盆地控制,但两段未来贯通可能性极大,可能发生7.5-8级的地震,使两条段落单元产生级联破裂。
3)乾宁盆地的演化受鲜水河断裂带乾宁段和中古断裂的控制,且目前处于发育的初期。目前的沉积中心位于盆地的南东侧。本拉分区与相邻断裂的间距超过10km,可以认为是永久性段落边界,足以控制相邻段落破裂的扩展。
4)折多山隆起的挤压阶区范围的鲜水河断裂带段落单元相距宽度9-13km不等,本区为鲜水河断裂带永久性段落边界。雅拉河段与雪门坎段之间存在着断层走向约10-15°弯曲,这一弯曲在以往的历史地震破裂、两侧运动学性质(走滑和带有逆冲分量走滑)、滑动速率和贡嘎山局部挤压隆升等方面反映出为一个永久性段落边界,两侧没有发生级联破裂的可能性。
5)雅家埂拉分区的段落边界为非持久性段落边界,不具有阻止强震扩展的能力。
6)鲜水河断裂带北西段的虾拉沱盆地和道孚盆地具有段落边界的功能,但不具有持久性和稳定性,有产生级联破裂的可能。三段同时完全破裂的最大震级为8.0级左右。惠远寺盆地以及折多山隆起可以作为永久性段落边界,阻止破裂扩展,鲜水河断裂带中段的折多塘段、色拉哈段和雅拉河段主要表现为单独破裂模式。鲜水河断裂带南东段的雅家埂拉分区有地震破裂贯通的历史,因此该段落边界也为非持久性段落边界,雪门坎段和磨西段可以产生级联破裂。
3、关于鲜水河断裂带潜在震源区划分与震级上限分析
根据潜在震源区划分的原则和依据,鲜水河断裂带可以划分为八个潜在震源区单元,分别为炉霍段、道孚段、乾宁段、雅拉河段、色拉哈段、折多塘段、学门坎段和磨西段,最大震级上限分别为Ms7.7级、7.7级、7.5级、7.7级、7.3级、7.3级、7.5级和7.6级.;考虑到级联破裂的可能性,将断裂带划分为五个主要的潜在震源区:北西段,色拉哈段、折多塘段、雅拉河段和南东段,最高震级上限分别为Ms7.9级、7.7级、7.3级、7.3级、7.8级。
As an important left strike-slip fault zone on the southeast margin of the Tibetan plateau which is in the strong deformation field of the Asian continent, there are abundant history earthquake records, distinct tectonic geomorphology and surface rupture feathers on the Xianshuihe Fault zone, whereso it is an ideal is a perfect region for quantitative study of active faults and test of seismic rupture model test ----the independent rupture model or cascade rupture model. This fault zone attracts much attention of geologists all around the world. Further research about the Xianshuihe fault zone is a valid way to know more about the kinematics and dynamics mechanisms of the eastern margin of the Tibetan plateau, and also is a good window of understanding recurrence of major earthquakes on the large strike slip fault zone at block boundaries.
Lots of achievements have obtained about the Xianshuihe fault zone, especially in geology. Many studies are concentrated on the geometry, dynamitic feathers on the fault zone, besides that, several scholars have studied the segmentation of the Xianshuihe fault zone, but the segment boundary is hardly been focused on. while, the research degree of the segment boundary is very important for knowing better about the fault activity and its relationship with strong earthquakes. So we choose the segment boundaries of the Xianshuihe Fault zone as the main study object for this thesis, and expect to know more about them.
There have been numerous research of active fault in this region, which suppliy a good foundation as well as a higher requirement for this work., The thesis begins with the characteristics of the segment boundaries of the Xianshuihe fault zone ,building their evolution models, then discussing the relationship between the boundary feathers and the seismic rupture of fault segments. Finally, it discusses the fault acvitvity feathers of the Xianshuihe fault zone and the recurrence rules of strong earthquakes. the main aspects of this thesis rae, some progresses are as follows:
1)I have analyzed the feathers of the segment boundaries of the Xianshuihe Fault zone from three aspects including fault activities, tectonic geomorphic feathers and stratum sedimentation feathers,and furthermore, discussed the relationship between the evolution process of the segmentation boundary and the fault activities.
2)I have determined the segmentation rupture behave features by analyzing of the evolution stages of segment boundaries.
3) Seismic risk of the Xianshuihe fault zone has been evaluated briefly.
By comprehensive application of geology, geomorphology, stratigraphy and so on, this work studied the activity law of fault segment boundaries, and reconstructed evolution process. Combined with the data of historical earthquake and paleoearthquake rupture, it analyzed earthquake rupture segmentation behavior for the rupture zone of the Xianshuihe, and then studied the stability of segment boundaries and provided the basis for analyzing the hazard of regional earthquake. Meanwhile, the above study result could be used as the scientific basis of understanding for the earthquake rupturing processes of large scale strike-slip fault zones and their special migration law, and modeling the kinematics model for Chuandian active block. Base on gathering and analyzing available research results, I investigated and analyzed the geological and geomorphic characteristics of the rupture zone. Combined with geology, surveying, chronology and so on, by means of remote sensing, GIS, geology, geodesy and so on, I studied the activity features, the geomorphologic features and the sedimentary pattern of the segment boundary in the Xianshuihe fault zone, and recovered and modeled the evolution history for the fault segment boundary, and then discussed the relationship between the segment boundary evolution and the segmental rupture behavior of the fault zone. Overall, some conclusions can be made below:
1、Rupture segmentation of the Xianshuihe fault zone
Combined with the data of the geometrical distribution pattern of the fault zone, historical seismic ruptures seismic activity, deep structure, fault sipping rates, paleoearthquakes, recurrence law of major shocks, and the elapsing time of the last seismic event, the Xianshuihe fault zone is divided into 8 segments ,i.e Luhuo segment, Daofu segment, Qianning segment, Yalahe segment, Selaha segment, Zheduotang segment, Xuemenkan segment and Moxi segment.
2、Segment boundary features and the relationship with segments rupture behavior.
1)The fault activity evidence indicates that, the Luhuo segment of Xianshuihe fault zone has a trend of south-east extending, and the Daofu segment has the trend to migrate toward south-east; In the Xialatuo basin, there is a moving trend from northwest to southeast at the overlapped area of the two active boundary faults.According to well developed basin terrace characteristics and stratigraphic sedimentary feature, it can be seen that the new sedimentary center had moved from northwest to southeast. The motion of the major boundary faulting strength center controlled the basin evolution history and the moving of new sedimentary center, and the basin is still developing with a high ratio of length to width. The Xialatuo basin could control M7.5 earthquakes at the Luhuo segment and Daofu segment, but the greater earthquakes could accelerate the southeasetward of the Luhuo segment, and make the two segment link andgenerate cascade faults.
2)The latest activity of the Daofu segment and Qianning segment of the Xianshuihe fault zone has a tendency of migration from north to south.The fault activity in the Xlialatuo basin migrated from outside to inner of the basin, and the activity of the boundary fault is affected by the normal faults in the basin include Zilong fault. Feathers of the terrace development and stratigraphic sedimentary reflect that the deposit center migrates from the east part of the basin to the center, which is controlled by the boundary faults activity on two sides of the basin. Earthquakes of ~M 7.5 on the Daofu segment and Qianning segment are restricted by the Daofu basin, but it seems highly possible that the two segments rupture together, with earthquakes of M 7.5-8,and the two segments rupture in a cascade manner.
3)The evolution of the Qianning Basin is controlled by the Qianning segment of the Xianshuihe fault zone and Zhonggu fault,and the basin is now in the intial stage of development. The deposit center is in the southeast of the basin. The apart distance of this pull apart step-over and the adjacent segment south of it is more than 10km ,a thus , it can be regarded as a persistent segment boundary.
? 4) The apart distance between the segments of the Xianshuihe fault zone around the Zheduoshan pop-up range are from 9 to 13km, and the segment boundary here can be considered as a persistent boundary of the Xianshuihe fault zone. There is a bend of 10-15°between the Yalahe segment and Xuemenkan segment of the Xianshuihe fault zone. Differences of the historical seismic rupture feathers, kinematic feathers (strike slip or reverse with strike slip) and slip rates between the two segments together with the local compressive uplift of the Gongga Mont. show that the bend is a permanent segment boundary, and it is almost impossible for the two segments to rupture together in a cascade mode .
5)The segment boundary of the Yajiageng pull apart step-over is a nonpersistent boundary, which can’t stopt propagations of strong earthquakes.
6)The Xialatuo basin and Daofu basin in the northwest of the Xianshuihe fault zone can be considered as a segment boundary, without persistence and stability,which may propagate, and the maximum magnitude would be M8.0 if the three segments all rupture through a at the same event. The Huiyuansi basin and Zheduoshan pop-up are persistent boundaries,resisting seismic ruptures propagating from each other, and so the Zheduotang segment,Selaha segment, and Yalahe segment on the middle of Xianshuihe Fault zone would rupture independently. The Yajiageng pull-apart step over on the southeast segment of the Xianshuihe fault zone has been overlapped before, and so it is an nonpersistent segment boundary.The Xuemenkan segment and the Moxi segment can be ruptured in a cascade rupture way.
3 The potential seismic source zone and the upper limit magnitude analysis
According to the principle and rule of the potential seismic source zoning, the Xianshuihe fault zone can be divided into eight basic potential seismic source zones as Luhuo segment, Daofu segment, Qianning segment, Yalahe segment, Selaha segment, Zheduotang segment, Xuemenkan segment and Moxi segment. In this case, their upper limit magnitudes are Ms7.7,Ms 7.7,Ms 7.5,Ms 7.7、Ms 7.3,Ms 7.3,Ms 7.5 and Ms 7.6,respectively. By considering the cascade rupture possibility, five main potential seismic source zones can be determined, and the upper magnitudes for which are Ms7.9、Ms 7.7,Ms 7.3,Ms 7.3,Ms7.8, respectively.
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