南宁市土地生态安全预警研究
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摘要
土地是人类生存和发展的基石,安全历来是人类的基本需求之一。土地生态安全作为土地资源可持续利用的关键和基础,关系到人类社会能否持续、稳定发展。南宁作为广西省会、西部地区重要城市之一。近年来,随着内外环境条件的变化,地区后发优势逐渐显现,经济社会发展速度明显加快,土地利用变化对土地生态系统的扰动性逐步增强,土地生态安全态势不容乐观。在这一背景下,对南宁市土地生态安全开展预警研究具有重要意义和现实价值。
借鉴预警研究的理论和方法,本文依据南宁市相关基础资料,首先对南宁市土地生态系统存在的主要问题进行一个以定性为主的初步诊断；其次,采用对象属性解析法建立南宁市土地生态安全预警指标体系；第三,通过运用相关数学方法,预测各预警指标发展趋势,进而对南宁市土地生态安全警情进行评价,预报警情出现的时空范围和危害程度；最后,通过对南宁市土地生态安全的模拟调控,查明影响区域土地生态安全的关键因素,从而有针对性提出排除警情的调控措施。通过研究,得出主要结论如下：
(1)南宁市在2000-2009年间,土地生态安全警情综合指数呈现出缓慢增长的态势,总体处于重警区间；由于土地社会生态安全子系统警情综合指数不断下滑,区域土地生态安全协调度指数呈现波动下滑的特征,总体表现为在基本协调和不太协调区间内跳跃。根据预测,2010年以后,区域土地生态安全状况有好转势头,但增速逐年放缓,且仍处于有警区间,原因在于土地社会生态子系统安全水平较低的“瓶颈”效应逐渐显现。
(2)对南宁市土地生态安全总系统以及具有不同属性特征的具体因子进行模拟调控,发现：土地自然、经济和社会生态三个子系统同步正向变化对区域土地生态安全的改善效果非常明显；基于敏感因子的模拟调控对改善区域警情综合指数的效果最为明显,但对协调度指数提高的贡献不大；基于因子可控性的模拟调控对警情综合指数以及协调度指数的贡献都相对较大；基于因子安全程度的模拟调控对协调度指数改善效果最为明显,但对区域土地生态安全警情综合指数提高的贡献相对不大。
(3)根据本文设定的调控目标,如果相关部门能够积极配合、协调联动,南宁市在2014年到来时,可以有效改善区域土地生态安全状况：土地生态安全总系统及自然、经济、社会子系统的警情综合指数相比2009年分别提高了0.169、0.026、0.087和0.056,警情等级由中警过渡到轻警区间；土地生态安全协调度指数也提高至0.698,各子系统协调性明显增强,迈入比较协调等级。
针对以上研究结论,结合南宁市在今后五年内的现实约束条件,提出七个排除区域土地生态安全警情的调控措施：提高森林覆盖率,保护生物多样性；加强耕地保护,缓解耕地压力；控制土壤污染,改善农业生态环境；提高土地集约利用水平；加大环境建设投资,降低环境污染强度；完善城镇空间布局,合理引导推进城市化；城乡统筹发展,促进社会公平。
For human, Land is the foundation to exist and develop and safety is one of the basic needs. Land ecological security, which is the key point and foundation of sustainable utilization of land resources, has great influence on the sustainable and stable development of society. As the capital of Guangxi, Nanning is one of the most important cities in western regions. Recent years, with the changes of internal and external environment, the regional backwardness advantages gradually appear, the economy develops rapidly, the changes of land utilization have more and more disturbance on land ecosystem and the land ecological security is not optimistic. Under this background, it has practical significance and application value to make warning research on land ecological security in Nanning.
Based on the relative data, the author firstly uses theories and methods of warning research to make a qualitative analysis on the main problems of land ecosystem, secondly, the warning index system of Nanning land ecosystem has been built by Analytical Method object properties. Thirdly, using the mathematical method, the author predicts the development trend of warning index by which the author can evaluate the condition of Nanning land ecosystem and forecast the time and place that the dangers will appear, as well as its damage. Finally, by making the simulated regulation on the land ecosystem security in Nanning, the author points out the key factors influencing the regional land ecosystem security and puts forward some effective measures. Based on the above research, the author makes the following conclusions.
(1) During period from 2000-2009 in Nanning City, the comprehensive warning index of land ecological security increases slowly, which is generally in severe warning condition. Due to the decreasing of comprehensive warning index of land social ecological security, the coordinate index of regional land ecological security decreases which generally fluctuates between the coordination and the incoordination. It's impossible to forecast that the situation of regional land ecological security will improve whose speed will slow down year by year, and the index will be still in warning condition after 2010, for that the bottleneck effect of the low level of the land social ecological security will appear.
(2) Through simulated regulation on the total system of land ecological security and the factors with different attributes in Nanning, the author makes the conclusions that:the synchrinous positive changes of land natural, economic and social system have great influence on the improvement of regional land ecological security; the simulated regulation basing on sensibility greatly influences the increasing of the regional warning index and has few influence on the increasing of the coordinate index; the simulated regulation basing on controllability has great influence on the comprehensive warning index and the coordinate index; the simulated regulation basing on the security degree has great influence on the improvement of the coordinate index and has few influence on the improvement of the comprehensive warning index of regional land ecological security.
(3) If relevant departments pay attention to this question, take effective measures and complete the setting regulation target, the condition of regional land ecological security will greatly improve before 2014:comparing to 2009, the comprehensinve warnning index of land ecological security, natural subsystem, social subsystem and economic subsystem will correspondingly increase by 0.169、0.026、0.087 and 0.056; the grade of warning condition will turn from the moderate warning condition to light warning condition; the coordinate index of land ecological security will increase to 0.698 and the degree of coordination will obviously increase.
Taking the reality of Nanning in the next 5 years into account, the author puts forward 7 measures to eliminate the warning condition of regional land ecological security:improve the forest coverage and protect the species diversity; strengthen protection of cultivated land and relieve the stress of cultivated land; control soil pollution and improve the agricultural ecosystem; improve the intensive utilization of land; increase the investment of environmental construction and reduce the environmental pollution; perfect the spatial arrangement of city and reasonablly propel the urbanization; balance the urban and rural development and promote the social equity.
借鉴预警研究的理论和方法,本文依据南宁市相关基础资料,首先对南宁市土地生态系统存在的主要问题进行一个以定性为主的初步诊断；其次,采用对象属性解析法建立南宁市土地生态安全预警指标体系；第三,通过运用相关数学方法,预测各预警指标发展趋势,进而对南宁市土地生态安全警情进行评价,预报警情出现的时空范围和危害程度；最后,通过对南宁市土地生态安全的模拟调控,查明影响区域土地生态安全的关键因素,从而有针对性提出排除警情的调控措施。通过研究,得出主要结论如下：
(1)南宁市在2000-2009年间,土地生态安全警情综合指数呈现出缓慢增长的态势,总体处于重警区间；由于土地社会生态安全子系统警情综合指数不断下滑,区域土地生态安全协调度指数呈现波动下滑的特征,总体表现为在基本协调和不太协调区间内跳跃。根据预测,2010年以后,区域土地生态安全状况有好转势头,但增速逐年放缓,且仍处于有警区间,原因在于土地社会生态子系统安全水平较低的“瓶颈”效应逐渐显现。
(2)对南宁市土地生态安全总系统以及具有不同属性特征的具体因子进行模拟调控,发现：土地自然、经济和社会生态三个子系统同步正向变化对区域土地生态安全的改善效果非常明显；基于敏感因子的模拟调控对改善区域警情综合指数的效果最为明显,但对协调度指数提高的贡献不大；基于因子可控性的模拟调控对警情综合指数以及协调度指数的贡献都相对较大；基于因子安全程度的模拟调控对协调度指数改善效果最为明显,但对区域土地生态安全警情综合指数提高的贡献相对不大。
(3)根据本文设定的调控目标,如果相关部门能够积极配合、协调联动,南宁市在2014年到来时,可以有效改善区域土地生态安全状况：土地生态安全总系统及自然、经济、社会子系统的警情综合指数相比2009年分别提高了0.169、0.026、0.087和0.056,警情等级由中警过渡到轻警区间；土地生态安全协调度指数也提高至0.698,各子系统协调性明显增强,迈入比较协调等级。
针对以上研究结论,结合南宁市在今后五年内的现实约束条件,提出七个排除区域土地生态安全警情的调控措施：提高森林覆盖率,保护生物多样性；加强耕地保护,缓解耕地压力；控制土壤污染,改善农业生态环境；提高土地集约利用水平；加大环境建设投资,降低环境污染强度；完善城镇空间布局,合理引导推进城市化；城乡统筹发展,促进社会公平。
For human, Land is the foundation to exist and develop and safety is one of the basic needs. Land ecological security, which is the key point and foundation of sustainable utilization of land resources, has great influence on the sustainable and stable development of society. As the capital of Guangxi, Nanning is one of the most important cities in western regions. Recent years, with the changes of internal and external environment, the regional backwardness advantages gradually appear, the economy develops rapidly, the changes of land utilization have more and more disturbance on land ecosystem and the land ecological security is not optimistic. Under this background, it has practical significance and application value to make warning research on land ecological security in Nanning.
Based on the relative data, the author firstly uses theories and methods of warning research to make a qualitative analysis on the main problems of land ecosystem, secondly, the warning index system of Nanning land ecosystem has been built by Analytical Method object properties. Thirdly, using the mathematical method, the author predicts the development trend of warning index by which the author can evaluate the condition of Nanning land ecosystem and forecast the time and place that the dangers will appear, as well as its damage. Finally, by making the simulated regulation on the land ecosystem security in Nanning, the author points out the key factors influencing the regional land ecosystem security and puts forward some effective measures. Based on the above research, the author makes the following conclusions.
(1) During period from 2000-2009 in Nanning City, the comprehensive warning index of land ecological security increases slowly, which is generally in severe warning condition. Due to the decreasing of comprehensive warning index of land social ecological security, the coordinate index of regional land ecological security decreases which generally fluctuates between the coordination and the incoordination. It's impossible to forecast that the situation of regional land ecological security will improve whose speed will slow down year by year, and the index will be still in warning condition after 2010, for that the bottleneck effect of the low level of the land social ecological security will appear.
(2) Through simulated regulation on the total system of land ecological security and the factors with different attributes in Nanning, the author makes the conclusions that:the synchrinous positive changes of land natural, economic and social system have great influence on the improvement of regional land ecological security; the simulated regulation basing on sensibility greatly influences the increasing of the regional warning index and has few influence on the increasing of the coordinate index; the simulated regulation basing on controllability has great influence on the comprehensive warning index and the coordinate index; the simulated regulation basing on the security degree has great influence on the improvement of the coordinate index and has few influence on the improvement of the comprehensive warning index of regional land ecological security.
(3) If relevant departments pay attention to this question, take effective measures and complete the setting regulation target, the condition of regional land ecological security will greatly improve before 2014:comparing to 2009, the comprehensinve warnning index of land ecological security, natural subsystem, social subsystem and economic subsystem will correspondingly increase by 0.169、0.026、0.087 and 0.056; the grade of warning condition will turn from the moderate warning condition to light warning condition; the coordinate index of land ecological security will increase to 0.698 and the degree of coordination will obviously increase.
Taking the reality of Nanning in the next 5 years into account, the author puts forward 7 measures to eliminate the warning condition of regional land ecological security:improve the forest coverage and protect the species diversity; strengthen protection of cultivated land and relieve the stress of cultivated land; control soil pollution and improve the agricultural ecosystem; improve the intensive utilization of land; increase the investment of environmental construction and reduce the environmental pollution; perfect the spatial arrangement of city and reasonablly propel the urbanization; balance the urban and rural development and promote the social equity.
引文
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