基于强度减排的我国碳交易市场机制研究
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摘要
近百年来全球气候正在经历一次以全球变暖为主要特征的显著变化。气候变化已成为当今科学界、各国政府和社会公众强烈关注的重大环境问题之一。温室气体,特别是二氧化碳浓度的剧增引起了全球气候变暖,而二氧化碳浓度的剧增很大程度上与人类在生产、生活过程中,直接或间接地向大气排放温室气体的活动有关。为此,以减少二氧化碳为主的温室气体排放的碳减排活动在全球范围内日益升温。
在联合国的号召下,《联合国气候变化框架公约》以及包括《哥本哈根协议》在内的一系列国际气候谈判的成果,将世界多数国家纳入碳减排的行列中。在《公约》尤其是《京都议定书》的推动下,全球催生出一个以二氧化碳排放权为对象的“碳交易市场”,并且随着国际上几大主要的碳交易市场的发展而逐渐发展成熟。
中国作为世界上最大的发展中国家,虽然在《京都议定书》中没有承担减排义务,但是已成为世界上二氧化碳排放最多的国家。这使得中国在后京都时代碳减排的压力会越来越大,在应对气候变化问题上面临着巨大的挑战。一方面,我国所处的经济增长阶段决定了我国能源消耗量和碳排放量上升的局面住短期内难以扭转；另一方面,我国现行应对气候变化和促进碳减排的政策措施中,大多以“自上而下”的推进模式为主。虽然能够达到一定的碳减排效果,但在推进的过程中逐渐显现出其缺陷和不足,在碳减排效率方面的损失也是不容忽视的；再者,传统的污染物排放总量限制政策对经济发展具有很大的限制作用。对于尚处于经济转型期的发展中国家来说,如果一味实行强制性的绝对量碳减排政策,必然会对经济活动和社会消费需求施加额外的约束,这最终将导致我国的经济竞争能力和社会生活水平的下降,也会最终影响良好的碳减排效果,无法达到令人满意的政策结果。
因此,如何以成本有效的方式削减和控制二氧化碳排放,以及如何在力所能及的范围内采取有效的适应性政策,减缓气候变化对我国经济和社会发展的不利影响,制定合适的应对气候变化的国家战略已经成为摆在我国政府面前的一项紧迫的任务。这就需要市场手段发挥重要的作用,需要建立强大而健全的、与我国行政推进机制相匹配的市场机制,充分调动全社会各类利益主体的积极性来推进碳减排。因此,促进碳减排的环境管理模式需要通过“白上而下”的政府行政推进和“自下而上”的市场配合,更多地发掘自愿减排的潜力,实现低成本的碳减排目的。
我国作为发展中国家,所采取的碳减排政策和措施应该是在不损害经济发展的前提和范围内进行,因此我国在哥本哈根大会上提出了碳强度减排的自愿减排目标：到2020年单位国内生产总值二氧化碳排放比2005年下降40%至45%。根据这一目标,如何建立适合我国国情的、基于强度减排的碳排放权交易市场成为研究的焦点问题。
本文分两部分对文献进行梳理。一是梳理国内外应对气候变化的相关环境政策探索与实践,并对几种环境政策进行比较,提出碳的市场交易政策可以较好的达到环境治理的目标。二是对国内外碳交易市场的相关研究进展进行梳理,包括国际碳交易市场的诞生、国外碳交易市场的模型、碳强度的提出以及我国碳市场的研究等方面,以期为本文的研究奠定坚实的理论基础。
研究我国碳交易市场的运行机制,需要首先对我国目前碳排放的现状和碳排放强度的目标进行了分析和测算。本文通过利用ARIMA模型对我国2020年的碳排放强度进行预测,再根据我国提出的碳强度减排的目标区间得到确定的碳强度减排的目标。并以此约束性指标为定量研究的约束条件,计算出为达成该指标所需要削减的二氧化碳排放量。从而得出结论：我国实现碳减排的政策目标的压力是巨大的。
实现既定目标需要建立与我国行政推进机制相匹配的市场机制,以更低的成本和更高的效率推进碳减排。采取市场机制的方式需要对我国碳市场的交易情景进行设置。本文通过设置跨行业、跨区域、跨期的碳交易情景,尝试对行业间的碳强度交易、区域间的碳强度交易和基于碳金融机制的碳强度交易的市场机制进行研究。
基于行业间碳强度交易的市场机制研究方面。通过因素分解方法将行业碳排放强度的影响因素分为行业内能源品种碳排放率、能源结构、能源强度。并对我国占国民经济比重较大的第二产业和第三产业以及工业内部39个行业的基于能源利用的碳排放强度进行了定量研究。研究结果显示：第二产业的碳强度大大高于第三产业,且工业内部碳排放强度的差异也是很明显的,碳强度最高的两个行业分别是化学原料及化学制品制造业和黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业,这两个行业正是我国需要进行碳排放强度控制的重点行业。因此,本文选取钢铁行业、化工行业和第三产业作为我国行业间碳强度交易的目标行业。尝试在碳排放强度约束下,由钢铁行业和化工行业购买碳强度指标,第三产业出售碳强度指标,建立行业间碳强度交易市场的理论模型。最后对行业间碳强度指标的交易对经济、环境和社会的影响进行分析,得到结论：在经济效益方面,碳交易极大地降低和削减了碳减排的成本和费用,因此能够促进经济的持续稳定增长；在环境效益方面,交易使碳排放强度获得了下降,可以有效地解决环境问题；在社会效益方面,行业间的碳市场交易机制可以显著地提高政府的宏观调控和监督管理水平,提高环境管理效率。最后提出行业间碳市场交易的政策建议。
基于区域间碳强度交易的市场机制研究方面。通过因素分解方法将各地区碳排放强度的影响因素分为地区内能源品种的碳排放率、能源结构、能源强度。将我国30个地区的碳排放强度的变化情况进行测算,尝试将排碳区域划分为低排碳区域、中排碳区域和高排碳区域,形成了将碳排放强度的指标由高排碳区域向中、低排碳区域进行转移的基础。并按照碳强度的流动方向分别建立了碳排放强度指标流动的碳交易市场模型：高排碳区域与中排碳区域、中排碳区域与低排碳区域、高排碳区域与低排碳区域的碳强度交易模型。结果显示：单个区域和整个社会总的碳排放强度均获得了下降,即碳排放强度的指标比未交易时取得了更加显著的碳减排效果；对经济的影响表现在其成本的节约方面,三种交易情景的区域通过碳交易均能比未参与交易时获得更大的成本节约,且单个减排区域治理环境污染的边际成本差别越大,碳交易可以节省的费用潜力也越大,碳交易市场开展的可能性也越大,交易带来的经济效益也越高。最后提出区域间碳市场交易的政策建议。
基于碳金融机制的碳强度交易市场研究方面。通过将碳金融机制引入碳市场模型中,将模型的时间范围由一期扩展到多期,尝试建立了一种跨期的碳排放权交易制度,对传统的当期强度减排的碳市场交易模型进行了扩展。本文设计了两种碳排放期权交易模型——碳排放看涨期权交易模型和碳排放看跌期权交易模型。模型的结果表明,通过选取期权工具来扩展我国的碳交易市场模型,可以为碳市场的发展带来以下影响：使交易成本得到了下降,碳排放强度也获得了下降,实现了碳排放强度在不同时间的流动；使厂商有效地规避了碳排放权交易的风险；增加了碳交易市场的灵活性和可操作性。最后提出促进碳金融机制的市场交易运行的政策建议。
通过以上三种交易机制,可以实现我国基于碳强度减排的市场交易。研究结果表明,碳强度指标的市场交易可以带来经济效益、环境效益和社会效益,在促进了碳排放量的减少和碳强度的降低的同时,也降低了碳减排的成本和费用,并进一步提高了环境管理的效率。
In the past century, the global climate is undergoing a significant change mainly characterized by global warming. Climate change has been one of the major environmental problems concerned by scientific community, governments and the public. Greenhouse gases, in particular, the rapid increase in CO2 caused global warming, which is related to the human activities of greenhouse gases emissions to the atmosphere directly or indirectly in the process of the production and life. For this reason, carbon emissions reduction activities have heated up around the whole world.
At the call of the United Nations,《United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change》and series of international climate negotiations results including《the Copenhagen agreement》put most countries in the world into the ranks of carbon emissions. Under the impetus of《Convention》, in particular《the Kyoto Protocol》, the world has given birth to a carbon trade market objected to the permits of carbon dioxide emissions, which is mature increasingly with the development of a few of main international carbon markets.
As the largest developing country in the world, China has not be involved in the obligation of emissions reduction in the《Kyoto Protocol》.But it has become the largest CO2 emissions countries in the world. This makes China confronted with more pressure of carbon emissions reduction in the post-Kyoto era, and face great challenges in response to climate change issues. On one hand, China's economic growth stage has decided that the situation of more energy consumption and increased carbon emissions is difficult to reverse in the short term; On the other hand, the most current policies and measures in response to climate change and carbon reduction are mainly using the mode of "from top to down". Although it has achieved some carbon emissions effect, its defects and shortcomings also gradually reveal in the promoting process, and its loss in the efficiency of the carbon emission reduction can not be ignored; Moreover, the traditional policy under the control of total amount of carbon emission has largely restricted economic development. If a developing country in economic transition is carried out compulsory absolute amount of carbon reduction policies, its economic activity and social consumption will be imposed additional constraints inevitably, which will eventually lead to lower economic competitiveness and decline in social standards of living. Ultimately it will affect the good effects of carbon emissions reduction, so the policy can not achieve a satisfactory result.
Therefore, how to reduce and control CO2 emissions in the cost-effective way, how to adopt effective adaptation policy within the limits of economic development, how to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change on China's economic and social development, and how to establish an appropriate national strategy to cope with climate change have been an urgent task placed in front of our government. This requires market-based instruments to play an important role, and need to build the market mechanism which is strong, healthy and suited with our administrative propulsion mechanism. And mobilize the whole society's enthusiasm to promote carbon emission reduction. Therefore, the environmental management mode of carbon emissions reduction requires the combination of governmental administration through "from top to down" and the market mode through "from bottom to up".Thereby it can explore more potential of voluntary emission reductions and achieve the purpose of low-cost carbon reduction.
As a developing country, carbon emission reduction policies and measures adopted by our county should be carried through within the premise of unprejudiced to the economic development.Therefore, in the Copenhagen Congress, China put forward carbon intensity-based reduction target voluntarily:by 2020, CO2 emissions per unit of GDP will drop 40%to 45%compared with 2005. Under this goal, how to set up a carbon emissions trade market which is adapt to China's national conditions and based on carbon intensity reduction has become the focus of the research.
This paper sorts out the literature in two parts. Firstly, sort the relevant exploration and practice of environmental policy responded to climate change and compare them. Carbon trade market policy can achieve better environmental management objectives. Secondly, sort relevant research on carbon trade market in domestic and international area, including the birth of the international carbon market, models of carbon trade market, birth of carbon intensity and carbon market research in China and so on, in order to lay a solid theoretical research basis for this paper.
Research on carbon market mechanism in China need to analyze and measure the status of our current carbon emissions and carbon intensity goal firstly. This paper predicts the level of carbon intensity in 2020 in China through the use of ARIMA model, and then gets definite carbon intensity-based target according to target range, and calculates CO2 emissions reduction according to the quantitative constraint. Thus, it can be concluded that the pressure to achieve the policy objective of carbon reduction is enormous in China.
The achievement of the target needs to establish mechanism which is suited with our administrative promotion mechanisms in order to promote carbon reduction with lower costs and higher efficiency. Adopting the way of market mechanism needs to set the carbon market trade scenarios in our country. By setting the cross-sectoral, inter-regional and cross-time carbon trade scenario, this paper tries to study the carbon intensity trade mechanisms based on the inter-industry transactions, inter-regional transactions and financial carbon trade mechanisms.
In terms of inter-industry carbon intensity trade market mechanism, this paper decomposes the industrial carbon intensity factors into the rate of energy species, energy structure and energy intensity by means of decomposition. The paper studies quantitatively on carbon intensity of secondary industry and tertiary industry which account for a large proportion of national economy, and the 39 industrial sectors within secondary industry. The results show:the carbon intensity of the secondary industry is much higher than the tertiary industry, and differences of the 39 industrial sectors within secondary industry in carbon intensity are also very obvious. The two highest sectors in carbon intensity are "chemicals and chemical products industry" and "ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry". These are exactly the key industries which are needed for control. Therefore, this paper selects the steel industry, chemical industry and tertiary industry as the targeted industries in carbon intensity of inter-industry trade. Constrained by carbon intensity target, the paper is trying to establish inter-industry theoretical model of carbon intensity market by the way that the steel industry and chemical industry purchase carbon intensity index, the tertiary industry sales carbon intensity index. Finally, the paper analyzes the impact of carbon intensity of inter-industry trade to the economy, environment and society.It can conclude:in economic benefits, carbon trade has greatly reduced the costs and expenses of carbon emission reduction, so it can contribute to sustainable economic growth; in environmental benefits, carbon trade can make carbon intensity decline and can effectively resolve environmental problems; in social benefits, carbon trade can significantly improve the government's macro-control and the level of supervision and management, and improve environmental management efficiency. Finally, the policy recommendations in inter-industry carbon market trade are put forward.
In terms of inter-regional carbon intensity trade market mechanism, this paper decomposes the regional carbon intensity factors into the rate of energy species, regional energy structure and regional energy intensity by means of decomposition. The paper calculates the carbon intensity changes on 30 regions in China, and attempts to divide the carbon emission region into low carbon emissions region, medium carbon emissions region and high carbon emissions region. This will form a base on carbon intensity target transferring from the region of high carbon emissions to the medium and low carbon emissions regions. In accordance with the flow direction of the carbon intensity, this paper sets up the model of carbon intensity index market:high-carbon region and medium-carbon region; medium-carbon region and low-carbon region; high-carbon region and low-carbon region. The results show that: declines on carbon intensity occur on both a single region and the social region. That is to say, CO2 emissions intensity has gained more significant effect of carbon reduction; the impact on the economy performs in its cost conservation, three scenarios of regional trade have gained greater cost savings. The difference between the single marginal reduction cost of environmental pollution greater and the cost of carbon saving potential greater, the possibility of carrying out carbon market is greater and the economic benefits of trade are higher. Finally, the policy recommendations in inter-regional carbon market trade are put forward.
In terms of financial carbon intensity trade market mechanism, this paper introduces the financial mechanism into the carbon market model, extends the time of model from one phase to multi-phase. And this paper tries to establish a cross-time carbon credits trade system, and the current strength of the traditional carbon emission market trade model is extended. The paper designs two type of option mechanism model--call options trade carbon emissions model and put options carbon emissions model. Models' results show that choosing options tool to extend our traditional carbon market model can bring following impacts on carbon market development: trade costs have fallen, the carbon intensity also has descended, and has realized the flow of carbon intensity in diffident time; it enables manufacturers to effectively avoid the risk of carbon emissions trade; it increases the flexibility and maneuverability of the carbon trade market. Finally, the policy recommendations in the financial mechanisms carbon market trade are put forward.
These three trade mechanisms can achieve carbon intensity-based market trade in China. The results show that the market trade based on carbon intensity index can bring us economic, environmental and social benefits.It can facilitate the reduction of carbon emissions and carbon intensity, simultaneously reduce carbon emission reduction costs and expenses, and further improve the efficiency of environmental management.
在联合国的号召下,《联合国气候变化框架公约》以及包括《哥本哈根协议》在内的一系列国际气候谈判的成果,将世界多数国家纳入碳减排的行列中。在《公约》尤其是《京都议定书》的推动下,全球催生出一个以二氧化碳排放权为对象的“碳交易市场”,并且随着国际上几大主要的碳交易市场的发展而逐渐发展成熟。
中国作为世界上最大的发展中国家,虽然在《京都议定书》中没有承担减排义务,但是已成为世界上二氧化碳排放最多的国家。这使得中国在后京都时代碳减排的压力会越来越大,在应对气候变化问题上面临着巨大的挑战。一方面,我国所处的经济增长阶段决定了我国能源消耗量和碳排放量上升的局面住短期内难以扭转；另一方面,我国现行应对气候变化和促进碳减排的政策措施中,大多以“自上而下”的推进模式为主。虽然能够达到一定的碳减排效果,但在推进的过程中逐渐显现出其缺陷和不足,在碳减排效率方面的损失也是不容忽视的；再者,传统的污染物排放总量限制政策对经济发展具有很大的限制作用。对于尚处于经济转型期的发展中国家来说,如果一味实行强制性的绝对量碳减排政策,必然会对经济活动和社会消费需求施加额外的约束,这最终将导致我国的经济竞争能力和社会生活水平的下降,也会最终影响良好的碳减排效果,无法达到令人满意的政策结果。
因此,如何以成本有效的方式削减和控制二氧化碳排放,以及如何在力所能及的范围内采取有效的适应性政策,减缓气候变化对我国经济和社会发展的不利影响,制定合适的应对气候变化的国家战略已经成为摆在我国政府面前的一项紧迫的任务。这就需要市场手段发挥重要的作用,需要建立强大而健全的、与我国行政推进机制相匹配的市场机制,充分调动全社会各类利益主体的积极性来推进碳减排。因此,促进碳减排的环境管理模式需要通过“白上而下”的政府行政推进和“自下而上”的市场配合,更多地发掘自愿减排的潜力,实现低成本的碳减排目的。
我国作为发展中国家,所采取的碳减排政策和措施应该是在不损害经济发展的前提和范围内进行,因此我国在哥本哈根大会上提出了碳强度减排的自愿减排目标：到2020年单位国内生产总值二氧化碳排放比2005年下降40%至45%。根据这一目标,如何建立适合我国国情的、基于强度减排的碳排放权交易市场成为研究的焦点问题。
本文分两部分对文献进行梳理。一是梳理国内外应对气候变化的相关环境政策探索与实践,并对几种环境政策进行比较,提出碳的市场交易政策可以较好的达到环境治理的目标。二是对国内外碳交易市场的相关研究进展进行梳理,包括国际碳交易市场的诞生、国外碳交易市场的模型、碳强度的提出以及我国碳市场的研究等方面,以期为本文的研究奠定坚实的理论基础。
研究我国碳交易市场的运行机制,需要首先对我国目前碳排放的现状和碳排放强度的目标进行了分析和测算。本文通过利用ARIMA模型对我国2020年的碳排放强度进行预测,再根据我国提出的碳强度减排的目标区间得到确定的碳强度减排的目标。并以此约束性指标为定量研究的约束条件,计算出为达成该指标所需要削减的二氧化碳排放量。从而得出结论：我国实现碳减排的政策目标的压力是巨大的。
实现既定目标需要建立与我国行政推进机制相匹配的市场机制,以更低的成本和更高的效率推进碳减排。采取市场机制的方式需要对我国碳市场的交易情景进行设置。本文通过设置跨行业、跨区域、跨期的碳交易情景,尝试对行业间的碳强度交易、区域间的碳强度交易和基于碳金融机制的碳强度交易的市场机制进行研究。
基于行业间碳强度交易的市场机制研究方面。通过因素分解方法将行业碳排放强度的影响因素分为行业内能源品种碳排放率、能源结构、能源强度。并对我国占国民经济比重较大的第二产业和第三产业以及工业内部39个行业的基于能源利用的碳排放强度进行了定量研究。研究结果显示：第二产业的碳强度大大高于第三产业,且工业内部碳排放强度的差异也是很明显的,碳强度最高的两个行业分别是化学原料及化学制品制造业和黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业,这两个行业正是我国需要进行碳排放强度控制的重点行业。因此,本文选取钢铁行业、化工行业和第三产业作为我国行业间碳强度交易的目标行业。尝试在碳排放强度约束下,由钢铁行业和化工行业购买碳强度指标,第三产业出售碳强度指标,建立行业间碳强度交易市场的理论模型。最后对行业间碳强度指标的交易对经济、环境和社会的影响进行分析,得到结论：在经济效益方面,碳交易极大地降低和削减了碳减排的成本和费用,因此能够促进经济的持续稳定增长；在环境效益方面,交易使碳排放强度获得了下降,可以有效地解决环境问题；在社会效益方面,行业间的碳市场交易机制可以显著地提高政府的宏观调控和监督管理水平,提高环境管理效率。最后提出行业间碳市场交易的政策建议。
基于区域间碳强度交易的市场机制研究方面。通过因素分解方法将各地区碳排放强度的影响因素分为地区内能源品种的碳排放率、能源结构、能源强度。将我国30个地区的碳排放强度的变化情况进行测算,尝试将排碳区域划分为低排碳区域、中排碳区域和高排碳区域,形成了将碳排放强度的指标由高排碳区域向中、低排碳区域进行转移的基础。并按照碳强度的流动方向分别建立了碳排放强度指标流动的碳交易市场模型：高排碳区域与中排碳区域、中排碳区域与低排碳区域、高排碳区域与低排碳区域的碳强度交易模型。结果显示：单个区域和整个社会总的碳排放强度均获得了下降,即碳排放强度的指标比未交易时取得了更加显著的碳减排效果；对经济的影响表现在其成本的节约方面,三种交易情景的区域通过碳交易均能比未参与交易时获得更大的成本节约,且单个减排区域治理环境污染的边际成本差别越大,碳交易可以节省的费用潜力也越大,碳交易市场开展的可能性也越大,交易带来的经济效益也越高。最后提出区域间碳市场交易的政策建议。
基于碳金融机制的碳强度交易市场研究方面。通过将碳金融机制引入碳市场模型中,将模型的时间范围由一期扩展到多期,尝试建立了一种跨期的碳排放权交易制度,对传统的当期强度减排的碳市场交易模型进行了扩展。本文设计了两种碳排放期权交易模型——碳排放看涨期权交易模型和碳排放看跌期权交易模型。模型的结果表明,通过选取期权工具来扩展我国的碳交易市场模型,可以为碳市场的发展带来以下影响：使交易成本得到了下降,碳排放强度也获得了下降,实现了碳排放强度在不同时间的流动；使厂商有效地规避了碳排放权交易的风险；增加了碳交易市场的灵活性和可操作性。最后提出促进碳金融机制的市场交易运行的政策建议。
通过以上三种交易机制,可以实现我国基于碳强度减排的市场交易。研究结果表明,碳强度指标的市场交易可以带来经济效益、环境效益和社会效益,在促进了碳排放量的减少和碳强度的降低的同时,也降低了碳减排的成本和费用,并进一步提高了环境管理的效率。
In the past century, the global climate is undergoing a significant change mainly characterized by global warming. Climate change has been one of the major environmental problems concerned by scientific community, governments and the public. Greenhouse gases, in particular, the rapid increase in CO2 caused global warming, which is related to the human activities of greenhouse gases emissions to the atmosphere directly or indirectly in the process of the production and life. For this reason, carbon emissions reduction activities have heated up around the whole world.
At the call of the United Nations,《United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change》and series of international climate negotiations results including《the Copenhagen agreement》put most countries in the world into the ranks of carbon emissions. Under the impetus of《Convention》, in particular《the Kyoto Protocol》, the world has given birth to a carbon trade market objected to the permits of carbon dioxide emissions, which is mature increasingly with the development of a few of main international carbon markets.
As the largest developing country in the world, China has not be involved in the obligation of emissions reduction in the《Kyoto Protocol》.But it has become the largest CO2 emissions countries in the world. This makes China confronted with more pressure of carbon emissions reduction in the post-Kyoto era, and face great challenges in response to climate change issues. On one hand, China's economic growth stage has decided that the situation of more energy consumption and increased carbon emissions is difficult to reverse in the short term; On the other hand, the most current policies and measures in response to climate change and carbon reduction are mainly using the mode of "from top to down". Although it has achieved some carbon emissions effect, its defects and shortcomings also gradually reveal in the promoting process, and its loss in the efficiency of the carbon emission reduction can not be ignored; Moreover, the traditional policy under the control of total amount of carbon emission has largely restricted economic development. If a developing country in economic transition is carried out compulsory absolute amount of carbon reduction policies, its economic activity and social consumption will be imposed additional constraints inevitably, which will eventually lead to lower economic competitiveness and decline in social standards of living. Ultimately it will affect the good effects of carbon emissions reduction, so the policy can not achieve a satisfactory result.
Therefore, how to reduce and control CO2 emissions in the cost-effective way, how to adopt effective adaptation policy within the limits of economic development, how to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change on China's economic and social development, and how to establish an appropriate national strategy to cope with climate change have been an urgent task placed in front of our government. This requires market-based instruments to play an important role, and need to build the market mechanism which is strong, healthy and suited with our administrative propulsion mechanism. And mobilize the whole society's enthusiasm to promote carbon emission reduction. Therefore, the environmental management mode of carbon emissions reduction requires the combination of governmental administration through "from top to down" and the market mode through "from bottom to up".Thereby it can explore more potential of voluntary emission reductions and achieve the purpose of low-cost carbon reduction.
As a developing country, carbon emission reduction policies and measures adopted by our county should be carried through within the premise of unprejudiced to the economic development.Therefore, in the Copenhagen Congress, China put forward carbon intensity-based reduction target voluntarily:by 2020, CO2 emissions per unit of GDP will drop 40%to 45%compared with 2005. Under this goal, how to set up a carbon emissions trade market which is adapt to China's national conditions and based on carbon intensity reduction has become the focus of the research.
This paper sorts out the literature in two parts. Firstly, sort the relevant exploration and practice of environmental policy responded to climate change and compare them. Carbon trade market policy can achieve better environmental management objectives. Secondly, sort relevant research on carbon trade market in domestic and international area, including the birth of the international carbon market, models of carbon trade market, birth of carbon intensity and carbon market research in China and so on, in order to lay a solid theoretical research basis for this paper.
Research on carbon market mechanism in China need to analyze and measure the status of our current carbon emissions and carbon intensity goal firstly. This paper predicts the level of carbon intensity in 2020 in China through the use of ARIMA model, and then gets definite carbon intensity-based target according to target range, and calculates CO2 emissions reduction according to the quantitative constraint. Thus, it can be concluded that the pressure to achieve the policy objective of carbon reduction is enormous in China.
The achievement of the target needs to establish mechanism which is suited with our administrative promotion mechanisms in order to promote carbon reduction with lower costs and higher efficiency. Adopting the way of market mechanism needs to set the carbon market trade scenarios in our country. By setting the cross-sectoral, inter-regional and cross-time carbon trade scenario, this paper tries to study the carbon intensity trade mechanisms based on the inter-industry transactions, inter-regional transactions and financial carbon trade mechanisms.
In terms of inter-industry carbon intensity trade market mechanism, this paper decomposes the industrial carbon intensity factors into the rate of energy species, energy structure and energy intensity by means of decomposition. The paper studies quantitatively on carbon intensity of secondary industry and tertiary industry which account for a large proportion of national economy, and the 39 industrial sectors within secondary industry. The results show:the carbon intensity of the secondary industry is much higher than the tertiary industry, and differences of the 39 industrial sectors within secondary industry in carbon intensity are also very obvious. The two highest sectors in carbon intensity are "chemicals and chemical products industry" and "ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry". These are exactly the key industries which are needed for control. Therefore, this paper selects the steel industry, chemical industry and tertiary industry as the targeted industries in carbon intensity of inter-industry trade. Constrained by carbon intensity target, the paper is trying to establish inter-industry theoretical model of carbon intensity market by the way that the steel industry and chemical industry purchase carbon intensity index, the tertiary industry sales carbon intensity index. Finally, the paper analyzes the impact of carbon intensity of inter-industry trade to the economy, environment and society.It can conclude:in economic benefits, carbon trade has greatly reduced the costs and expenses of carbon emission reduction, so it can contribute to sustainable economic growth; in environmental benefits, carbon trade can make carbon intensity decline and can effectively resolve environmental problems; in social benefits, carbon trade can significantly improve the government's macro-control and the level of supervision and management, and improve environmental management efficiency. Finally, the policy recommendations in inter-industry carbon market trade are put forward.
In terms of inter-regional carbon intensity trade market mechanism, this paper decomposes the regional carbon intensity factors into the rate of energy species, regional energy structure and regional energy intensity by means of decomposition. The paper calculates the carbon intensity changes on 30 regions in China, and attempts to divide the carbon emission region into low carbon emissions region, medium carbon emissions region and high carbon emissions region. This will form a base on carbon intensity target transferring from the region of high carbon emissions to the medium and low carbon emissions regions. In accordance with the flow direction of the carbon intensity, this paper sets up the model of carbon intensity index market:high-carbon region and medium-carbon region; medium-carbon region and low-carbon region; high-carbon region and low-carbon region. The results show that: declines on carbon intensity occur on both a single region and the social region. That is to say, CO2 emissions intensity has gained more significant effect of carbon reduction; the impact on the economy performs in its cost conservation, three scenarios of regional trade have gained greater cost savings. The difference between the single marginal reduction cost of environmental pollution greater and the cost of carbon saving potential greater, the possibility of carrying out carbon market is greater and the economic benefits of trade are higher. Finally, the policy recommendations in inter-regional carbon market trade are put forward.
In terms of financial carbon intensity trade market mechanism, this paper introduces the financial mechanism into the carbon market model, extends the time of model from one phase to multi-phase. And this paper tries to establish a cross-time carbon credits trade system, and the current strength of the traditional carbon emission market trade model is extended. The paper designs two type of option mechanism model--call options trade carbon emissions model and put options carbon emissions model. Models' results show that choosing options tool to extend our traditional carbon market model can bring following impacts on carbon market development: trade costs have fallen, the carbon intensity also has descended, and has realized the flow of carbon intensity in diffident time; it enables manufacturers to effectively avoid the risk of carbon emissions trade; it increases the flexibility and maneuverability of the carbon trade market. Finally, the policy recommendations in the financial mechanisms carbon market trade are put forward.
These three trade mechanisms can achieve carbon intensity-based market trade in China. The results show that the market trade based on carbon intensity index can bring us economic, environmental and social benefits.It can facilitate the reduction of carbon emissions and carbon intensity, simultaneously reduce carbon emission reduction costs and expenses, and further improve the efficiency of environmental management.
引文
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