制度和制度变迁对国际贸易的影响研究
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摘要
第二次世界大战以来,国际贸易蓬勃发展,大大促进了世界经济的持续增长。国际经济交流与合作对世界各国的发展都起着举足轻重的作用,各国都非常重视对外贸易。然而,人们发现,即使在经济全球化和区域经济一体化空前发展的态势下,实际世界贸易规模和模式与传统国际贸易理论值之间还存在很大的差距,传统国际贸易理论无法对现实国际贸易的影响因素做出全面的解释。西方制度经济学的兴起为国际贸易理论研究提供了一个全新的视角,尤其是20世纪90年代以来,原中央计划经济体制国家向市场经济体制的转轨实践为研究制度对国际贸易的影响提供了一个试验平台,人们开始广泛研究国际贸易中的制度因素,尤其强调产权制度和合约实施制度对国际贸易的影响。
中国既是世界上最大的发展中国家,又是重要的转轨国家,2009年对外贸易规模列居世界第三位,对外贸易依存度高达60%,对外贸易对中国经济持续、稳定、健康发展起着关键性的作用。同时,中国贸易条件趋于恶化,产品国际竞争力不高等问题愈发严重。因此,从制度层面寻找深层次原因,有利于中国在经济转轨的关键时期,充分利用国内外两种资源和国内外两个市场,在国际竞争中充分发挥本国优势,促进经济增长。
本文由七章内容组成：
第一章为导论。首先提出了本文研究的背景和意义,认为充分认识制度对一国对外贸易的影响机制和渠道,对一国在经济全球化时代利用国际市场发展本国经济有着非常重要的意义。尤其是中国处于体制转轨的关键时期,这一研究更具有现实意义。其次,对国内外研究现状进行了简要介绍。目前国内外学者对影响国际贸易的制度因素研究主要集中在产权保护制度和合约强制实施制度两个方面,对双边贸易量的研究主要采用了贸易重力模型进行实证分析。再次,给出了本文的研究思路、技术路线和主要的研究方法。最后,就本文的创新之处和不足进行了总结。
第二章为相关理论与文献综述。本章对制度理论、制度变迁理论以及主流国际贸易理论进行了回顾和综述。首先是制度理论。制度是规范人们行为的准则。西方制度经济学将制度视为一国经济增长的决定性因素,交易成本处处存在,制度的制定与执行是为了降低交易成本。对制度的效率进行定性和定量衡量,成为西方制度经济学的重要研究内容。其次是制度变迁理论,对制度变迁的本质与种类、成本与收益以及影响因素进行了综述。最后对主流国际贸易理论进行了评介。主流国际贸易理论将制度外生化或者将制度因素对经济的影响通过技术水平来反映,没有将制度看作独立的影响贸易的要素。技术差异论、要素禀赋论以及新贸易理论等都未真正涉及制度因素对国际贸易的影响,因此,对许多国际贸易现象无法做出合理解释。制度经济学的兴起为研究国际贸易的影响因素提供了新的视角。
第三章分析了制度对国际贸易的影响。制度通过多种渠道或机制对国际贸易产生影响。制度作为影响一国比较优势的要素,既是一国技术创新的关键,也是一国积累人力资本解决资本匮乏难题的关键。有效的产权保护制度有利于形成高效率的市场机制,符合比较优势理论,制度优越的国家在制度密集型产品上具有比较优势；有效的制度可以减少不确定性和交易成本,促进国际贸易的发生,影响一国对外贸易规模和利益分配,这对优化世界资源配置,加强竞争,提高生产效率无疑具有正向的影响。此外,合约实施制度以及国与国之间的制度趋同有利于增强国家之间的信任度,从而有利于合约的签订和履行。贸易重力模型是国内外学者研究影响双边贸易规模和结构的因素的重要方法,近年来更是得到了拓展和应用。本章回顾了贸易重力模型的基本形式和理论基础,并对引入制度变量的贸易重力模型的应用进行了综述。结果表明,制度因素对双边贸易的影响很显著。
第四章为世界不同类型国家的制度水平与国际贸易发展的相关性分析。本章分别考察了有代表性的发达国家和最不发达国家制度发展状况,结果表明,发达国家的制度普遍优于欠发达国家。二战后国际贸易蓬勃发展,发达国家与最不发达国家的对外贸易发展很不平衡,发达国家人均进出口贸易额及年均增长率远远高于欠发达国家。对世界上123个国家四项制度指标与对外贸易规模的相关性分析结果表明,二者之间存在着较强的正向相关性,公共治理水平越高的国家往往对应着越高的人均进出口值。这意味着,一国在政府效率、监管、法治以及腐败控制方面做得越好,对外贸易就越活跃。
第五章分析国家制度变迁与国际贸易的关系。本章从动态角度探讨了制度因素对国际贸易的影响。首先通过分析认为,转轨国家制度变迁的主要原因在于原有中央集权计划经济体制带来的经济低效率。其次,考察了转轨国家以私有化为主的经济体制变迁过程以及这些变迁带来的政府效率、监管以及腐败控制方面的变化。再次,考察了这些国家对外贸易发展情况,认为转轨带来的制度方面的变化尚未完全体现在国际贸易的发展上,因此,提出能够进一步影响一国对外贸易的制度变迁方向。
第六章探讨中国制度变迁与对外贸易发展问题。中国作为世界上最大的发展中国家和转轨国家,其制度变迁和对外贸易发展都备受关注。本章首先考察了中国制度变迁的主要原因和基本情况,其次考察了近年中国制度变迁带来的公共治理水平的变化以及对外贸易发展概况。最后构建了中国对外贸易的重力模型,考察贸易双方制度水平对贸易规模的影响,结果表明,优越的制度有利于双边贸易的发展,制度认可度较高的国家间贸易规模较大。此外,中国对外贸易的发展很大程度上受益于公共治理水平提高之外的因素,因此,中国的政治、经济、文化、教育制度变迁还有很长的路要走。
第七章是主要结论：制度对国际贸易非常重要,发达国家制度普遍优于欠发达国家,贸易量大且从国际贸易中获得了更多的利益。欠发达国家若要从国际贸易中获益,必须不断完善制度。转轨国家的制度变迁旨在寻找更适宜经济发展的制度,但这在政府公共治理方面还没有真正体现出来,转轨国家对外贸易的发展还没有真正从制度变迁中受益。更深层次的制度变迁也是中国经济增长与对外贸易发展的关键。
本文的创新之处体现在两个方面：第一,本文在研究制度对对外贸易的影响时,不仅采用了静态与动态分析相结合的方法,从而更全面更立体地研究国际贸易中的制度影响因素,而且从中得出结论认为,制度水平相似的国家更容易构建起信任基础,从而有利于双边贸易的开展。第二,将加入WT0看作一个制度变迁过程,这种制度变迁无疑对成员国的对外贸易产生关键性的引导作用。因此,与其他国家的制度趋同在很大程度上促进了国际合约的实施。
Since World War Ⅱ, international trade has vigorously developed and has forced the world economy to grow continuously. International economic communication and cooperation play a vital role for the development of countries all over the world. Almost all the countries attach importance to foreign trade. But people find that even under the heated development of economic globalization and regional economic integration, there is a big gap between the scale and patterns of the real world trade and the estimated values of the traditional theories. The traditional international trade theories cannot explain all the influencing factors of the real international trade, especially the facts that large scale of intra-international trade occur between developed countries after World War Ⅱ. The development of western institutional economics provides a new perspective for international trade theory study to us. From the1990s, the original centrally planning economic system states began to transit to the market economic system, which provide us a natural experimental platform to study the effects of institutions on international trade. People began to pay more attention to institutional factors effecting international trade and they especially focus on the property rights systems and contract implementation systems.
China is not only the biggest developing country in the world, but also the most important transition country. In2009, China's foreign trade ranked third all over the world. The foreign trade dependence was up to60%. Foreign trade has been playing a key role in economic growth. At the same time, our trade term is tending worse and the international competition power of commodities is small. These problems have become more serious. Therefore, to find the deeper causes from the institutional perspective during this key period of our economic transiton will do good to China to make full use of domestic and overseas resources and markets, to fully exert our advantages in international competition and promote economic growth.
This article includes seven chapters:
The first chapter is about the introduction. In this part, it firstly gives the background and significance of this study in order to fully understand that the effecting system and channels of institutions on foreign trade are important for a country to fully use the international market and promote domestic economy during the economic globalization. This topic is especially meaningful because China is at a crucial period of system transitions. Secondly, it briefly introduces the domestic and overseas studies on this topic. Nowadays, both domestic and overseas reseachers focus their studies on the property rights protection systems and contracts enforcement systems. They mainly use the "trade gravity models" to study how much effects the institutions have on bilateral trades. Thirdly, it provides the research thinkings, technical routes and the main methods. The last, it gives the innovations and shortcomings.
The second chapter is about the summary of related international trade theories and reseach reviews. It firstly reviews the institutional theories. Institutions are rules standardizing people's behaviors. Western institutional economics regards institutions as the prime determinants for one country's economic growth. The formulation and implementation of institutions is to reduce the transaction costs which are everywhere. To measure institutions qualitatively and quantitatively is one of the most important contents of reseachers'work. Secondly, this essay reviews the institutions change theories and analyzes the nature and catalogues of institution changes. Thirdly, it gives the mainstream international trade theories. These mainstream international trade theories treat institutions as exogenous variables or use technicals to reflect the effects of institutions on economic growth. The institutions are not independent effective factors. The mainstream trade theories which mainly include technical differences international trade theory, factors endowment theory and the new trade theories, are not really related to institutions factors. Therefore, they can't fully explain many international trade phenomenons reasonably. Western institutional economics gives us a new perspective to study the effect factors of international trade.
The third chapter is about the influence mechanisms of institutions on international trade. There are many channels or mechanisms for institutions to affect international trade. Institutions are not only the key factors of one country's technical innovations, but also the key factors of one country's accumulation of human capitals and material capitals. Furthermore, efficient property rights protection institutions are infavor of the formulation of efficient market system. All these facts mean that countries with superior institutions have advantages on production of institutions incentive products. Futhermore, efficient institutions can reduce uncertainty and transaction costs, promote international trade and affect one country's foreign trade scales and benefit distributions. Undoubtedly, it can do favor to the global resources distribution, competition and production efficiency. Besides, contracts enforcement institutions and the systems convergency among countries are convenient to enhance the trust among them, which will be convenient to the signing and performance of contracts. The trade gravity model is an important method for domestic and overseas researchers to study those factors affecting bilateral trade scales and modes. It has been expanded and used these years. This chapter reviews the basic form and its theoretical foundation and overviews the usage of trade gravity models including institutional variables. The result shows that institutions have significant effect on bilateral trade especially the control of corruption and regulatory quality.
The fourth chapter is about the correlation analysis between institutions of different kinds of countries and their foreign trade. In this chapter, the main developed countries and least developed countries are both analyzed. The result shows that developed countries generally have superior institutions over those developing countries. Since World War Ⅱ, international trade has been developing quickly. There is a big gap between developed countries and developing countries in foreign trade. Both foreign trade scales and annual growth rate of developed countries are higher than those of developing countries. A correlation analysis between four institutional indicators and foreign trade scales is made in this chapter. The result reveals that there is a positive correlation between institutions and foreign trade. Countries with higher governance indexes generally have higher foreign trade values per capita. It means that one country will enjoy better foreign trade if it does better in government effectiveness, regulatory quality, rule of law and corruption control.
The fifth chapter is about institutional changes and international trade. This chapter studies the effect of institutions on international trade from a dynamic perspective. It firstly believes that the main reasons of institutions change of transition countries is the poor efficiency of the original centrally planned economic system. Secondly, it reviews the process of transition countries'economic system change and the resulted changes of these countries' governance management. Thirdly, it inspects the foreign trade of these countries. The result shows that the change of institutions havenot been reflected in foreign trade. Therefore, it indicates a direction for further institutional changes to promote one country's foreign trade.
The sixth chapter mainly discusses China's institutional changes and foreign trade. China is the largest developing country and one of the most important transition countries of the world. Its institutional change and foreign trade are concerned more by people. This chapter firstly analyzes the main reasons and process of China's institutional change. And then, it investigates China's governance management and foreign trade outlines. Last, it establishes a trade gravity model including institution variables and analyzes the roles of institutions in international trade between China and other135countries of the world.
The last part is the summary. Institutions are important for international trade. Developed countries have superior institutions over developing countries. They have larger trade quantities and can gain more from international trade than developing countries. Therefore, developing countries should perfect their institutions in order to gain more. The institutional change of transition countries is to find better institutions to promote economic development. But they still haven't gained really from institutional changes. China is no exception. Deeper system change is the key for our economic growth and foreign trade development.
The innovations of this essay include two points. Firstly, to study the effects of a country's institutions on its foreign trade, it uses a compound method including both static anaylisis and a dynamic anaylisis. In this way, we can learn the institutional effective factors more comprehensively and make a conclusion that it is easier for countries with similar institutions to establish trust basis and develp their bilateral trade. Secondly, we treat joining the World Trade Organization as an institutional transforming. This kind of institutional transforming undoubtedly has a vital role in a country's foreign trade.
中国既是世界上最大的发展中国家,又是重要的转轨国家,2009年对外贸易规模列居世界第三位,对外贸易依存度高达60%,对外贸易对中国经济持续、稳定、健康发展起着关键性的作用。同时,中国贸易条件趋于恶化,产品国际竞争力不高等问题愈发严重。因此,从制度层面寻找深层次原因,有利于中国在经济转轨的关键时期,充分利用国内外两种资源和国内外两个市场,在国际竞争中充分发挥本国优势,促进经济增长。
本文由七章内容组成：
第一章为导论。首先提出了本文研究的背景和意义,认为充分认识制度对一国对外贸易的影响机制和渠道,对一国在经济全球化时代利用国际市场发展本国经济有着非常重要的意义。尤其是中国处于体制转轨的关键时期,这一研究更具有现实意义。其次,对国内外研究现状进行了简要介绍。目前国内外学者对影响国际贸易的制度因素研究主要集中在产权保护制度和合约强制实施制度两个方面,对双边贸易量的研究主要采用了贸易重力模型进行实证分析。再次,给出了本文的研究思路、技术路线和主要的研究方法。最后,就本文的创新之处和不足进行了总结。
第二章为相关理论与文献综述。本章对制度理论、制度变迁理论以及主流国际贸易理论进行了回顾和综述。首先是制度理论。制度是规范人们行为的准则。西方制度经济学将制度视为一国经济增长的决定性因素,交易成本处处存在,制度的制定与执行是为了降低交易成本。对制度的效率进行定性和定量衡量,成为西方制度经济学的重要研究内容。其次是制度变迁理论,对制度变迁的本质与种类、成本与收益以及影响因素进行了综述。最后对主流国际贸易理论进行了评介。主流国际贸易理论将制度外生化或者将制度因素对经济的影响通过技术水平来反映,没有将制度看作独立的影响贸易的要素。技术差异论、要素禀赋论以及新贸易理论等都未真正涉及制度因素对国际贸易的影响,因此,对许多国际贸易现象无法做出合理解释。制度经济学的兴起为研究国际贸易的影响因素提供了新的视角。
第三章分析了制度对国际贸易的影响。制度通过多种渠道或机制对国际贸易产生影响。制度作为影响一国比较优势的要素,既是一国技术创新的关键,也是一国积累人力资本解决资本匮乏难题的关键。有效的产权保护制度有利于形成高效率的市场机制,符合比较优势理论,制度优越的国家在制度密集型产品上具有比较优势；有效的制度可以减少不确定性和交易成本,促进国际贸易的发生,影响一国对外贸易规模和利益分配,这对优化世界资源配置,加强竞争,提高生产效率无疑具有正向的影响。此外,合约实施制度以及国与国之间的制度趋同有利于增强国家之间的信任度,从而有利于合约的签订和履行。贸易重力模型是国内外学者研究影响双边贸易规模和结构的因素的重要方法,近年来更是得到了拓展和应用。本章回顾了贸易重力模型的基本形式和理论基础,并对引入制度变量的贸易重力模型的应用进行了综述。结果表明,制度因素对双边贸易的影响很显著。
第四章为世界不同类型国家的制度水平与国际贸易发展的相关性分析。本章分别考察了有代表性的发达国家和最不发达国家制度发展状况,结果表明,发达国家的制度普遍优于欠发达国家。二战后国际贸易蓬勃发展,发达国家与最不发达国家的对外贸易发展很不平衡,发达国家人均进出口贸易额及年均增长率远远高于欠发达国家。对世界上123个国家四项制度指标与对外贸易规模的相关性分析结果表明,二者之间存在着较强的正向相关性,公共治理水平越高的国家往往对应着越高的人均进出口值。这意味着,一国在政府效率、监管、法治以及腐败控制方面做得越好,对外贸易就越活跃。
第五章分析国家制度变迁与国际贸易的关系。本章从动态角度探讨了制度因素对国际贸易的影响。首先通过分析认为,转轨国家制度变迁的主要原因在于原有中央集权计划经济体制带来的经济低效率。其次,考察了转轨国家以私有化为主的经济体制变迁过程以及这些变迁带来的政府效率、监管以及腐败控制方面的变化。再次,考察了这些国家对外贸易发展情况,认为转轨带来的制度方面的变化尚未完全体现在国际贸易的发展上,因此,提出能够进一步影响一国对外贸易的制度变迁方向。
第六章探讨中国制度变迁与对外贸易发展问题。中国作为世界上最大的发展中国家和转轨国家,其制度变迁和对外贸易发展都备受关注。本章首先考察了中国制度变迁的主要原因和基本情况,其次考察了近年中国制度变迁带来的公共治理水平的变化以及对外贸易发展概况。最后构建了中国对外贸易的重力模型,考察贸易双方制度水平对贸易规模的影响,结果表明,优越的制度有利于双边贸易的发展,制度认可度较高的国家间贸易规模较大。此外,中国对外贸易的发展很大程度上受益于公共治理水平提高之外的因素,因此,中国的政治、经济、文化、教育制度变迁还有很长的路要走。
第七章是主要结论：制度对国际贸易非常重要,发达国家制度普遍优于欠发达国家,贸易量大且从国际贸易中获得了更多的利益。欠发达国家若要从国际贸易中获益,必须不断完善制度。转轨国家的制度变迁旨在寻找更适宜经济发展的制度,但这在政府公共治理方面还没有真正体现出来,转轨国家对外贸易的发展还没有真正从制度变迁中受益。更深层次的制度变迁也是中国经济增长与对外贸易发展的关键。
本文的创新之处体现在两个方面：第一,本文在研究制度对对外贸易的影响时,不仅采用了静态与动态分析相结合的方法,从而更全面更立体地研究国际贸易中的制度影响因素,而且从中得出结论认为,制度水平相似的国家更容易构建起信任基础,从而有利于双边贸易的开展。第二,将加入WT0看作一个制度变迁过程,这种制度变迁无疑对成员国的对外贸易产生关键性的引导作用。因此,与其他国家的制度趋同在很大程度上促进了国际合约的实施。
Since World War Ⅱ, international trade has vigorously developed and has forced the world economy to grow continuously. International economic communication and cooperation play a vital role for the development of countries all over the world. Almost all the countries attach importance to foreign trade. But people find that even under the heated development of economic globalization and regional economic integration, there is a big gap between the scale and patterns of the real world trade and the estimated values of the traditional theories. The traditional international trade theories cannot explain all the influencing factors of the real international trade, especially the facts that large scale of intra-international trade occur between developed countries after World War Ⅱ. The development of western institutional economics provides a new perspective for international trade theory study to us. From the1990s, the original centrally planning economic system states began to transit to the market economic system, which provide us a natural experimental platform to study the effects of institutions on international trade. People began to pay more attention to institutional factors effecting international trade and they especially focus on the property rights systems and contract implementation systems.
China is not only the biggest developing country in the world, but also the most important transition country. In2009, China's foreign trade ranked third all over the world. The foreign trade dependence was up to60%. Foreign trade has been playing a key role in economic growth. At the same time, our trade term is tending worse and the international competition power of commodities is small. These problems have become more serious. Therefore, to find the deeper causes from the institutional perspective during this key period of our economic transiton will do good to China to make full use of domestic and overseas resources and markets, to fully exert our advantages in international competition and promote economic growth.
This article includes seven chapters:
The first chapter is about the introduction. In this part, it firstly gives the background and significance of this study in order to fully understand that the effecting system and channels of institutions on foreign trade are important for a country to fully use the international market and promote domestic economy during the economic globalization. This topic is especially meaningful because China is at a crucial period of system transitions. Secondly, it briefly introduces the domestic and overseas studies on this topic. Nowadays, both domestic and overseas reseachers focus their studies on the property rights protection systems and contracts enforcement systems. They mainly use the "trade gravity models" to study how much effects the institutions have on bilateral trades. Thirdly, it provides the research thinkings, technical routes and the main methods. The last, it gives the innovations and shortcomings.
The second chapter is about the summary of related international trade theories and reseach reviews. It firstly reviews the institutional theories. Institutions are rules standardizing people's behaviors. Western institutional economics regards institutions as the prime determinants for one country's economic growth. The formulation and implementation of institutions is to reduce the transaction costs which are everywhere. To measure institutions qualitatively and quantitatively is one of the most important contents of reseachers'work. Secondly, this essay reviews the institutions change theories and analyzes the nature and catalogues of institution changes. Thirdly, it gives the mainstream international trade theories. These mainstream international trade theories treat institutions as exogenous variables or use technicals to reflect the effects of institutions on economic growth. The institutions are not independent effective factors. The mainstream trade theories which mainly include technical differences international trade theory, factors endowment theory and the new trade theories, are not really related to institutions factors. Therefore, they can't fully explain many international trade phenomenons reasonably. Western institutional economics gives us a new perspective to study the effect factors of international trade.
The third chapter is about the influence mechanisms of institutions on international trade. There are many channels or mechanisms for institutions to affect international trade. Institutions are not only the key factors of one country's technical innovations, but also the key factors of one country's accumulation of human capitals and material capitals. Furthermore, efficient property rights protection institutions are infavor of the formulation of efficient market system. All these facts mean that countries with superior institutions have advantages on production of institutions incentive products. Futhermore, efficient institutions can reduce uncertainty and transaction costs, promote international trade and affect one country's foreign trade scales and benefit distributions. Undoubtedly, it can do favor to the global resources distribution, competition and production efficiency. Besides, contracts enforcement institutions and the systems convergency among countries are convenient to enhance the trust among them, which will be convenient to the signing and performance of contracts. The trade gravity model is an important method for domestic and overseas researchers to study those factors affecting bilateral trade scales and modes. It has been expanded and used these years. This chapter reviews the basic form and its theoretical foundation and overviews the usage of trade gravity models including institutional variables. The result shows that institutions have significant effect on bilateral trade especially the control of corruption and regulatory quality.
The fourth chapter is about the correlation analysis between institutions of different kinds of countries and their foreign trade. In this chapter, the main developed countries and least developed countries are both analyzed. The result shows that developed countries generally have superior institutions over those developing countries. Since World War Ⅱ, international trade has been developing quickly. There is a big gap between developed countries and developing countries in foreign trade. Both foreign trade scales and annual growth rate of developed countries are higher than those of developing countries. A correlation analysis between four institutional indicators and foreign trade scales is made in this chapter. The result reveals that there is a positive correlation between institutions and foreign trade. Countries with higher governance indexes generally have higher foreign trade values per capita. It means that one country will enjoy better foreign trade if it does better in government effectiveness, regulatory quality, rule of law and corruption control.
The fifth chapter is about institutional changes and international trade. This chapter studies the effect of institutions on international trade from a dynamic perspective. It firstly believes that the main reasons of institutions change of transition countries is the poor efficiency of the original centrally planned economic system. Secondly, it reviews the process of transition countries'economic system change and the resulted changes of these countries' governance management. Thirdly, it inspects the foreign trade of these countries. The result shows that the change of institutions havenot been reflected in foreign trade. Therefore, it indicates a direction for further institutional changes to promote one country's foreign trade.
The sixth chapter mainly discusses China's institutional changes and foreign trade. China is the largest developing country and one of the most important transition countries of the world. Its institutional change and foreign trade are concerned more by people. This chapter firstly analyzes the main reasons and process of China's institutional change. And then, it investigates China's governance management and foreign trade outlines. Last, it establishes a trade gravity model including institution variables and analyzes the roles of institutions in international trade between China and other135countries of the world.
The last part is the summary. Institutions are important for international trade. Developed countries have superior institutions over developing countries. They have larger trade quantities and can gain more from international trade than developing countries. Therefore, developing countries should perfect their institutions in order to gain more. The institutional change of transition countries is to find better institutions to promote economic development. But they still haven't gained really from institutional changes. China is no exception. Deeper system change is the key for our economic growth and foreign trade development.
The innovations of this essay include two points. Firstly, to study the effects of a country's institutions on its foreign trade, it uses a compound method including both static anaylisis and a dynamic anaylisis. In this way, we can learn the institutional effective factors more comprehensively and make a conclusion that it is easier for countries with similar institutions to establish trust basis and develp their bilateral trade. Secondly, we treat joining the World Trade Organization as an institutional transforming. This kind of institutional transforming undoubtedly has a vital role in a country's foreign trade.
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②透明国际即国际透明组织,是一个非政府、非盈利、国际性的民间组织,以推动全球反腐败运动为己任,成为对腐败问题研究得最权威、最全面和最准确的国际性非政府组织。
③采用10分制,10分为最高分,表示最廉洁；0分表示最腐败；8.0-10.0之间表示比较廉洁：5.0-8.0之间表示轻微腐败；2.5-5.0之间表示腐败比较严重；0-2.5之间则表示极端腐败。
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②在实施专制政体的国家,君主向民众承诺实行民主是不可信的；同样,劝说独裁者放弃权力并承诺给其补偿同样不可置信。
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①张维迎,法律制度的信誉基础,经济研究,2002(1)：3-13。
①张亚斌,论制度影响国际贸易的内在机制,国际经贸探索,2001(1)：6-8；张亚斌,论国际贸易中的制度资源,甘肃社会科学,2000(2)：18-20。
②[美]莫吉尔著,陈小白译,《富裕的杠杆：技术革新与经济进步》,北京：华夏出版社,2008。
①华民、韦森、张宇燕、文贯中等,《制度变迁与长期经济发展》,上海：复旦大学出版社,2006年6月,前言部分。
②卢现祥,《西方新制度经济学》,北京：中国发展出版社,2003：206。
① Thorsten Beck,2005, "Financial dependence and international trade", The World Bank, Working Paper No.2609
② Brander.J, and Spencer. B.,1983, "International R&D Rivalry and Industrial Strategy". Review of Economic studies, Vol.50, PP707-722.
③ Paul. R. Krugman,1984. Rethinking International Trade, MIT Press.
④经济学家马歇尔经济理论中关于规模经济和垄断弊病之间的矛盾的观点。马歇尔认为：自由竞争会导致生产规模扩大,形成规模经济,提高产品的市场占有率,又不可避免地造成市场垄断,而垄断发展到一定程度又必然阻止竞争,扼杀企业活力,造成资源的不合理配置。因此社会面临一种难题：如何求得市场竞争和规模经济之间的有效、合理的均衡,获得最大的生产效率。“马歇尔冲突”适用于收益递增(成本递减)的行业,如电信业、银行业。经济学家对于如何克服“马歇尔冲突”进行了不懈的探索。1940年,英国经济学家克拉克提出了有效竞争的概念。在他看来,所谓有效竞争就是一种将规模经济和市场竞争活力有效地协调,从而形成一种有利于长期均衡的竞争格局。
⑤[美]格罗斯曼赫尔普曼著,何帆、牛勇平等译,《全球经济中的创新与增长》,北京：中国人民大学出版社,2002：4。
①张亚斌,论制度影响国际贸易的内在机制,国际经贸探索,2001(1)：6-8。
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① Segura-Cayuela, Ruben,2006, "Inefficient Policies, Inefficient Institutions and Trade", Banco de Espana Research Paper No. WP-0633. Available at SSRN:http://ssrn.com/abstract=949436.
① Axel B., Matthias B., and Silke N.,2006, "Institutional Quality and the Gains from Trade", KYKLOS, Vol.59, No.3,PP345-368.
①诺斯.《制度、制度变迁与经济绩效》.上海：上海人民出版社,1994：34。
② Helliwell, J.F. and McCallum, J.1995, "National Border Still Matter for Trade". Policy Options/Options Politiques, Vol.16, PP44-48: McCallum, J.,1995, "National Border Matters: Canada-U.S. Regional Trade Patterns", American Economic Review, Vol.85, PP615-623.
③ Kreps, David,1990, Corporate Cultrue and Economic Theory, In Perspectives on Positive Political Economy, edited by James Alt and Kenneth Shepsle, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press, PP90-143.
①张维迎,法律制度的信誉基础,经济研究,2002(1)：3-13。
②同上
①盛斌,WTO体制、规则与谈判：一个博弈论的经济分析,世界经济,2001(12)：3-12。
①谷克鉴,《中国的经济转型与贸易流动——基于制度和技术因素的理论考察和计量研究》,北京：中国人民大学出版社,2006：13.
②同上,第14页。
③ Jeffrey H. Bergstrand,1985, "The Gravity Equation in International Trade:Some Microeconomic Foundations And Empirical Evidence", The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol.67, No.3, PP474-481; Bergstrand, J.H.,1989, "The Generalized Gravity Equation, Monopolistic Competition, and the Factor-Proportions Theory in International Trade", The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol.71, PP143-153; Deardorff, Alan.1998. "Determinants of Bilateral Trade:Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World? "In Jeffrey A.Frankel, ed., The Regionalization of the World Economy, Chicago: University of Chicago for the NBER; Simon J. Evenett and William K. Hutchinson,2002, "The Gravity Equation in International Economics:Theory and Evidence", Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Vol.49, No.5, PP489-490.
①转引自谷克鉴,《中国的经济转型与贸易流动——基于制度和技术因素的理论考察和计量研究》,北京：中国人民大学出版社,2006：17。
②同上。
①转引自谷克鉴,《中国的经济转型与贸易流动——基于制度和技术因素的理论考察和计量研究》,北京：中国人民大学出版社,2006：17-18。
① Anderson, J.E.,1979, "A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation", American Economic Review, Vol.69, PP106-116; Bergstrand, J.H.,1985, "The Gravity Equation in International Trade:Some Microeconomic Foundations And Empirical Evidence", The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol.67, No.3, PP474-481; Bergstrand, J.H.,1989, "The Generalized Gravity Equation, Monopolistic Competition, and the Factor-Proportions Theory in International Trade", The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol.71, PP143-153; Deardorff, Alan.1998. "Determinants of Bilateral Trade:Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World? "In Jeffrey A.Frankel, ed., The Regionalization of the World Economy, Chicago:University of Chicago for the NBER; Helpman, E.,1987, "Imperfect Competition and International Trade:Evidence from Fourteen Industrial Countries", Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Vol.1, PP62-81; Anderson, J.E. and Wincoop, E.,2001, "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle", National Bureau for Economic Research Working Paper No.8079.
②史朝兴、顾海英、秦向东。引力模型在国际贸易中应用的理论基础研究综述。南开经济研究,2005(2)：39-44；史朝兴、顾海英。贸易引力模型研究新进展及其在中国的应用。财贸研究,2005,
(3)：27-32；谷克鉴,《中国的经济转型与贸易流动——基于制度和技术因素的理论考察和计量研究》,北京：中国人民大学出版社,2006：14-37。
① Viner, J.,1950, The Economics of Customs Unions, Ch.4 in The Customs Union Issue, New York: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
② Soloaga, Isidro & Alan Wintersb, L.,2001, "Regionalism in the Nineties:What Effects on Trade? The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, Vol.12, No.1, PP1-29; Rodolphe Blavy,2001, "Trade in the Mashreq:An Empirical Examination," International Monetary Fund, Middle Eastern Dept, WP/01/163.
②王铠磊,国际贸易流量的影响因素——基于贸易引力模型和中国数据的实证分析[J],世界经济情况,2007(12)。
③吴丹,东亚双边进口贸易流量与潜力：基于贸易引力模型的实证研究,国际贸易问题,2008(5)：32-36。
④安烨、李秀敏、张立学,贸易引力模型对东北亚五国的实证检验及贸易潜力分析[J],长春金融高等专科学校学报,2005(4)。
⑤李钦,贸易引力模型对中国新疆与中亚四国贸易流量的实证检验及出口潜力分析[J],改革与战略,2008(11)；伍泽君,中国对欧盟农产品出口贸易的引力模型——基于欧盟东扩前后的比较[J],现代经济信息,2008(10)。
⑥盛清,CEPA框架下我国中部六省与香港地区贸易的引力模型分析[J],企业技术开发,2007(11)。
①史朝兴、顾海英,我国蔬菜出口贸易流量和流向——基于行业贸易引力模型的分析[J],新疆大学学报(社会科学版),2005(3)。
②庄丽娟、姜元武、刘娜,广东省与东盟农产品贸易流量与贸易潜力分析——基于引力模型的研究,国际贸易问题,2007(6)：81-86。
③马琳、李文强,基于贸易引力模型的中国大陆水产品出口市场布局优化研究[J],安徽农业科学,2008(22)。
④赵雨霖、林光华,中国与东盟10国双边农产品贸易流量与贸易潜力的分析——基于贸易引力模型的研究[J],国际贸易问题,2008(12)。
① Anderson, J.E. and D. Marcouiller,2002, "Insecurity and the Pattern of Trade:An Empirical Investigation", Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol.84, No.2, PP345-352.
② De Groot, H.L.F, GJ. Linders, P. Rietveld and U. Subramanian,2004, "The Institutional Determinants of Bilateral Trade Patterns", Kyklos, Vol.57, No.1, PP103-123.
③参见Grief (1993)关于商人联盟的作用研究,这些联盟控制着中世纪马格里布商人间的代理关系。
④ James E. Rauch and Vitor Trindade,2002, "Ethic Chinese Networks in International Trade", The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol.84, No.1, PP116-130.
⑤潘向东、廖进中、赖明勇,制度因素与双边贸易：一项基于中国的经验研究,世界经济,2004(5)；潘向东、廖进中、赖明勇,进口国制度安排与高技术产品出口：基于引力模型额研究,世界经济,2005(9)。
①吴丹,制度因素与东亚双边贸易：贸易引力模型的实证分析,经济经纬,2008(3)：47-49。
①按照世界银行的划分标准。
①Jan Priewe & Hansjorg Herr著,刘攀译,《发展与减贫经济学：超越华盛顿共识的战略》,成都：西南财经大学出版社,2006：1。
②林双林、李建民,《中国与俄罗斯经济改革比较》,北京：中国社会科学出版社,2007：2。
③周其仁,《产权与制度变迁》,北京：社会科学文献出版社,2002：136。
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①胡震等,《过渡经济学》,武汉：湖北人民出版社,2002：18。
①孔田平,中央计划经济及其对于经济转轨的政策含义,《东欧中亚研究》,1996(4)。
①吕炜,《转轨的时间模式与理论范式》,北京：经济科学出版社,2006：11。
①代表著作有吴敬琏的《改革,我们正在过大关》(三联书店,2001年)、《转轨中国》(四川人民出版社,2002年)、《当代中国经济改革》(上海远东出版社,2004年)以及热若尔·罗兰的《转型与经济学》(中译本,北京大学出版社,2000年)等。
①例如,人们开始认识到仅仅依靠政治动员是不够的,还需要有某种经济手段对其进行补充。1950年南斯拉夫创立了企业管理的独特模式-----工人自治制度给予企业初步的自治权。还有些国家创立奖金制度、计件工资制度等物质刺激手段。一些国家认识到行政性分权,并不能有效地克服传统中央计划体制的弊病,便大胆地提出了有条件地利用市场把计划经济和市场经济的优点结合起来的理论,如中国建设有中国特色社会主义市场经济的实践。
②德姆塞茨,关于产权的理论,《财产权利与制度变迁》,上海：上海三联出版社,2004：97。
③阿尔钦,产权：一个经典注释,《财产权与制度变迁》,上海：上海三联出版社,2004：167。
②林双林、李建民,《中国与俄罗斯经济改革比较》,北京：中国社会科学出版社,2007：7。
①许新,《转型经济的产权改革》,北京：社会科学文献出版社,2003：372--375。
②1989年波兰全年通货膨胀率为2000%,1990年下降为250%,1991年下降到72%。
①刘世锦,中国改革的推进方式及其中的公共选择问题,经济研究,1993(10)。
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①经互会成员包括：保加利亚、波兰、匈牙利、罗马尼亚、捷克斯洛伐克、东德、苏联、蒙古、越南和古巴。
②也有例外情况：捷克共和国、匈牙利、波兰和斯洛伐克共和国等初级产品和半制成品仍占总产品出口的40-50%,在经济转轨较慢的保加利亚和罗马尼亚等国该比例更大。
③ Balassa, B.,1965. "Trade Liberalization and "Revealed" Comparative Advantage", Manchester School of Economic and Social Studies, Vol.33, PP99-123.
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①周树立,论改革开放前的中国经济发展战略,经济经纬,2003(4)：36-38。
①周树立,论改革开放前的中国经济发展战略,经济经纬,2003(4)：36-38。
①周树立,论改革开放前的中国经济发展战略,经济经纬,200(4)：36-38。
①周其仁,一部未完成的产权改革史,经济观察报,2009年1月19日。
①周其仁,一部未完成的产权改革史,经济观察报,2009年1月19日。
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② Levine, R.,1998, "The Legal Environment, Banks and Long-run Economic Growth", Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, Vol.30, PP58-61; Porta, R.L., De Silanes, F.L. and Shleifer, A.,1998, "Law and Finance", Journal of Political Economy, Vol.1998, No.6, PP1113-1155; Levine, R., Loayza, N. and Beck, T.,2000, "Financial Intermediation and Growth:Causality and Causes", Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol.46, PP31-77.
③ Porta, R.L., De-Silanes, F.L., Shleifer, A. and Vishny, R.W.,1997, "Legal Determinants of External Finance", the Journal of Finance, Vol.48, No.3, PP1113-1150.
① Carin Thuresson,2008, "Contract enforcement and its impact on bilateral trade", Jonkoping University Master Thesis.
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③参见Grief (1993)关于商人联盟的作用研究,这些联盟控制着中世纪马格里布商人间的代理关系。
① Luis Araujo and Emanuel Ornelas,2005, "Trust-Based Trade", IBMEC RJ Economics Discussion Paper, http://professores.ibmecrjj.br/erg/dp/dp.htm.
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③陈伟、朱鹏飞,基于经济全球化的知识产权与国际贸易发展关联研究,科技管理研究,2010(3)：214-216.
④王洪,作为不完全契约的产权：一个注释,改革,2000(5)：53-57,72.
⑤ Wei, S.-J.,2000, "Natural Openness and Good Government", NBER Working Paper No.7765.
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② Knack, S. and P. Keefer,1997, "Does Social Capital Have an Economic Payoff? A Cross-Country Investigation", Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol.112, PP1252-1288.
③蔡洁,基于制度差异视角的贸易摩擦分析,经济经纬,2007(3),45-48.
④潘镇,制度水平、制度距离与双边贸易,中国工业经济,2006(7)：45-52.
①张林,《新制度主义》,北京：经济日报出版社,2006：31。
①周骏宇,《对外开放与制度变迁：中国入世的制度经济学解读》,成都：西南财经大学出版社,2007：12。
②转引自佟家栋,《发展中大国的贸易自由化与中国》,天津：天津教育出版社,2005：97-98。
③诺斯,《制度、制度变迁与经济绩效》,上海：上海人民出版社,1994。另外,舒尔茨、拉坦、斯科特等人都从将制度看作是一种规则的角度对制度下过定义。
①青木昌彦著,周黎安译,《比较制度分析》,上海：上海远东出版社,2001：5-12。
②周骏宇,《对外开放与制度变迁：中国入世的制度经济学解读》,成都：西南财经大学出版社,2007：15。
①张亚斌,《内生比较优势理论与中国贸易结构转换》,北京：中国经济出版社,2006。
②V.W.拉坦.“诱致性制度变迁理论”,载R.科斯、A.阿尔钦等著《财产权利与制度变迁》.上海：上海人民出版社,1994：329。
③L.E.戴维斯,D.C.诺斯.“制度变迁的理论：概念与原因”,载R.科斯、A.阿尔钦等著《财产权利与制度变迁》.上海：上海人民出版社,1994：270-271.
①柯武刚、史漫飞,《制度经济学》,北京：商务印书馆,2000：33。
②张亚斌,《内生比较优势理论与中国贸易结构转换》,北京：中国经济出版社,2006：95。
①从1999年8月至10月,盖洛普国际公司就人类生活中的基本价值,如民主、人权和犯罪问题征求了60个国家5万多人的看法。这一测验的结果代表的总人口达12亿。
②透明国际即国际透明组织,是一个非政府、非盈利、国际性的民间组织,以推动全球反腐败运动为己任,成为对腐败问题研究得最权威、最全面和最准确的国际性非政府组织。
③采用10分制,10分为最高分,表示最廉洁；0分表示最腐败；8.0-10.0之间表示比较廉洁：5.0-8.0之间表示轻微腐败；2.5-5.0之间表示腐败比较严重；0-2.5之间则表示极端腐败。
①Jones, E. L.,1981,” The European Miracle:Environments, Economies, and Geopolitics in the History of Europe and Asia", Cambridge University Press, New York.
①华民、韦森、张宇燕、文贯中等,制度变迁与长期经济发展,上海：复旦大学出版社,2006年,前言。
② Acemoglu, D.,2006, "A Simple Model of Inefficient Institutions", Scand. J. of Economics, Vol.108, No.4,PP515-546. DOI:10.1111/j.1467-9442.2006.00460.x.
③ Acemoglu, D., Simon Johnson and James Robinson,2004, "Institutions as the Fundamental Cause of Long-Run Growth", NBER Working Paper No. W10481.
① Knack,Stephen,and Philip Keefer,1995, "Institutions and economic Performance:Cross-Country Test Using Alternative Institutional Measure", Economics and Politics, Vol.7, PP207-227; Borner, S., A. Brunetti, and B. Weder,1995, Political Credibility and Economic Development. New York:St. Martin's Press.
② North, D.C.,1990, Institutions, Institutional Change and Economic Performance, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
① Landau, David,1983, "Government Expenditure and Economic growth:A Cross-Country Study." Southern Economic Journal, Vol.49, PP783-792.
② Koester, reinhard B., and Kormendi, Roger C.1989. "Taxation, Aggregate Activity and Economic growth:Cross-Country Evidence on Some Supply Side Hypotheses." Economic Inquiry, Vol.27, PP367-386.
③ Kuznets, Paul W.1988. "An East Asian Model of Economic Development:Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea.” Economic Development and Cultural Change, Vol.36, PP11-43.
④奥尔森(O1son,M.)著,苏长和译,《权力与繁荣》,上海：上海人民出版社,2005：3。
① Segura-Cayuela, R.,2006, "Inefficient Policies, Inefficient Institutions and Trade", Banco de Espana Research Paper No.WP-0633.
①卢现祥,《西方新制度经济学》,北京：中国发展出版社,2003：2。
①张宇燕、高程著,《美洲金银和西方世界的兴起》,北京：中信出版社,2004。
②柯武钢、史漫飞,制度经济学——社会秩序与公共政策,北京：商务印书馆,2004年。
①青木昌彦著,周黎安译,《比较制度分析》,上海：上海远东出版社,2001：26-29。
①(美)巴泽尔(Barzel, Y.)著,费方域、段毅才译,产权的经济分析,上海：上海人民出版社,2006年。
①卢现祥,《西方新制度经济学》,北京：中国发展出版社,2003：80。
②卢现祥,《西方新制度经济学》,北京：中国发展出版社,2003：112。
③宋玉华,经济全球化的制度竞争,选自《制度竞争与中国国际分工地位》,张幼文、黄仁伟主编,上海：上海远东出版社,2003年。
① Daron Acemoglu,2006, "A Simple Model of Inefficient Institutions", Scand. J. of Economics, Vol.108, No.4, PP515-546. DOI:10.1111/j.1467-9442.2006.00460.x
②在实施专制政体的国家,君主向民众承诺实行民主是不可信的；同样,劝说独裁者放弃权力并承诺给其补偿同样不可置信。
③见 Acemoglu, Daron, Johnson, Simon H. and Robinson, James A.,2004, "Institutions as the Fundamental Cause of Long-Run Growth”. CEPR Discussion Paper No.4458.
①周其仁著,产权与制度变迁：中国改革的经验研究,北京：社会科学文献出版社,2002年。
②巴泽尔将私人对公共领域资源实际拥有的权利称为“福利攫取”,这会带来社会福利损失或租金耗散。
③(美)巴泽尔(Barzel, Y.)著,费方域、段毅才译,《产权的经济分析》,上海：上海人民出版社,2006年。
①许新,《转型经济的产权改革》,北京：社会科学文献出版社,2003：24。
②L.E.戴维斯,D.C.诺斯,制度变迁的理论：概念与原因,《财产权利与制度变迁》,上海：上海人民出版社,2004：274。
③樊纲,两种改革成本与两种改革方式,经济研究,1993(11)。
①例如,在进行从计划定价向市场定价的改革时,如果能缩短实行价格双轨制过渡的过程,就可以减少甚至避免由价格双轨制而造成的腐败的发生。
②青木昌彦等,《经济体制的比较制度分析》,中国发展出版社,1999年版。
③Ian Jeffries,1993, Socialist Economics and the Transition to the Market, Routledge press.
① Christopher Clague, Philip Keefer, and Stephen Knack,1999, "Contract-Intensive Money:Contract Enforcement, Property Rights, and Economic Performance", Journal of Economic Growth, Vol.4, PP 185-211.
①张维迎,法律制度的信誉基础,经济研究,2002(1)：3-13。
①张亚斌,论制度影响国际贸易的内在机制,国际经贸探索,2001(1)：6-8；张亚斌,论国际贸易中的制度资源,甘肃社会科学,2000(2)：18-20。
②[美]莫吉尔著,陈小白译,《富裕的杠杆：技术革新与经济进步》,北京：华夏出版社,2008。
①华民、韦森、张宇燕、文贯中等,《制度变迁与长期经济发展》,上海：复旦大学出版社,2006年6月,前言部分。
②卢现祥,《西方新制度经济学》,北京：中国发展出版社,2003：206。
① Thorsten Beck,2005, "Financial dependence and international trade", The World Bank, Working Paper No.2609
② Brander.J, and Spencer. B.,1983, "International R&D Rivalry and Industrial Strategy". Review of Economic studies, Vol.50, PP707-722.
③ Paul. R. Krugman,1984. Rethinking International Trade, MIT Press.
④经济学家马歇尔经济理论中关于规模经济和垄断弊病之间的矛盾的观点。马歇尔认为：自由竞争会导致生产规模扩大,形成规模经济,提高产品的市场占有率,又不可避免地造成市场垄断,而垄断发展到一定程度又必然阻止竞争,扼杀企业活力,造成资源的不合理配置。因此社会面临一种难题：如何求得市场竞争和规模经济之间的有效、合理的均衡,获得最大的生产效率。“马歇尔冲突”适用于收益递增(成本递减)的行业,如电信业、银行业。经济学家对于如何克服“马歇尔冲突”进行了不懈的探索。1940年,英国经济学家克拉克提出了有效竞争的概念。在他看来,所谓有效竞争就是一种将规模经济和市场竞争活力有效地协调,从而形成一种有利于长期均衡的竞争格局。
⑤[美]格罗斯曼赫尔普曼著,何帆、牛勇平等译,《全球经济中的创新与增长》,北京：中国人民大学出版社,2002：4。
①张亚斌,论制度影响国际贸易的内在机制,国际经贸探索,2001(1)：6-8。
② Marin, D., Schnitzer, M.,1998, "Economic Incentives and International Trade", European Economic Review, Vol.42, PP705-716.
① Segura-Cayuela, Ruben,2006, "Inefficient Policies, Inefficient Institutions and Trade", Banco de Espana Research Paper No. WP-0633. Available at SSRN:http://ssrn.com/abstract=949436.
① Axel B., Matthias B., and Silke N.,2006, "Institutional Quality and the Gains from Trade", KYKLOS, Vol.59, No.3,PP345-368.
①诺斯.《制度、制度变迁与经济绩效》.上海：上海人民出版社,1994：34。
② Helliwell, J.F. and McCallum, J.1995, "National Border Still Matter for Trade". Policy Options/Options Politiques, Vol.16, PP44-48: McCallum, J.,1995, "National Border Matters: Canada-U.S. Regional Trade Patterns", American Economic Review, Vol.85, PP615-623.
③ Kreps, David,1990, Corporate Cultrue and Economic Theory, In Perspectives on Positive Political Economy, edited by James Alt and Kenneth Shepsle, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press, PP90-143.
①张维迎,法律制度的信誉基础,经济研究,2002(1)：3-13。
②同上
①盛斌,WTO体制、规则与谈判：一个博弈论的经济分析,世界经济,2001(12)：3-12。
①谷克鉴,《中国的经济转型与贸易流动——基于制度和技术因素的理论考察和计量研究》,北京：中国人民大学出版社,2006：13.
②同上,第14页。
③ Jeffrey H. Bergstrand,1985, "The Gravity Equation in International Trade:Some Microeconomic Foundations And Empirical Evidence", The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol.67, No.3, PP474-481; Bergstrand, J.H.,1989, "The Generalized Gravity Equation, Monopolistic Competition, and the Factor-Proportions Theory in International Trade", The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol.71, PP143-153; Deardorff, Alan.1998. "Determinants of Bilateral Trade:Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World? "In Jeffrey A.Frankel, ed., The Regionalization of the World Economy, Chicago: University of Chicago for the NBER; Simon J. Evenett and William K. Hutchinson,2002, "The Gravity Equation in International Economics:Theory and Evidence", Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Vol.49, No.5, PP489-490.
①转引自谷克鉴,《中国的经济转型与贸易流动——基于制度和技术因素的理论考察和计量研究》,北京：中国人民大学出版社,2006：17。
②同上。
①转引自谷克鉴,《中国的经济转型与贸易流动——基于制度和技术因素的理论考察和计量研究》,北京：中国人民大学出版社,2006：17-18。
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⑤李钦,贸易引力模型对中国新疆与中亚四国贸易流量的实证检验及出口潜力分析[J],改革与战略,2008(11)；伍泽君,中国对欧盟农产品出口贸易的引力模型——基于欧盟东扩前后的比较[J],现代经济信息,2008(10)。
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②庄丽娟、姜元武、刘娜,广东省与东盟农产品贸易流量与贸易潜力分析——基于引力模型的研究,国际贸易问题,2007(6)：81-86。
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④赵雨霖、林光华,中国与东盟10国双边农产品贸易流量与贸易潜力的分析——基于贸易引力模型的研究[J],国际贸易问题,2008(12)。
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③参见Grief (1993)关于商人联盟的作用研究,这些联盟控制着中世纪马格里布商人间的代理关系。
④ James E. Rauch and Vitor Trindade,2002, "Ethic Chinese Networks in International Trade", The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol.84, No.1, PP116-130.
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①按照世界银行的划分标准。
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①代表著作有吴敬琏的《改革,我们正在过大关》(三联书店,2001年)、《转轨中国》(四川人民出版社,2002年)、《当代中国经济改革》(上海远东出版社,2004年)以及热若尔·罗兰的《转型与经济学》(中译本,北京大学出版社,2000年)等。
①例如,人们开始认识到仅仅依靠政治动员是不够的,还需要有某种经济手段对其进行补充。1950年南斯拉夫创立了企业管理的独特模式-----工人自治制度给予企业初步的自治权。还有些国家创立奖金制度、计件工资制度等物质刺激手段。一些国家认识到行政性分权,并不能有效地克服传统中央计划体制的弊病,便大胆地提出了有条件地利用市场把计划经济和市场经济的优点结合起来的理论,如中国建设有中国特色社会主义市场经济的实践。
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②1989年波兰全年通货膨胀率为2000%,1990年下降为250%,1991年下降到72%。
①刘世锦,中国改革的推进方式及其中的公共选择问题,经济研究,1993(10)。
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①经互会成员包括：保加利亚、波兰、匈牙利、罗马尼亚、捷克斯洛伐克、东德、苏联、蒙古、越南和古巴。
②也有例外情况：捷克共和国、匈牙利、波兰和斯洛伐克共和国等初级产品和半制成品仍占总产品出口的40-50%,在经济转轨较慢的保加利亚和罗马尼亚等国该比例更大。
③ Balassa, B.,1965. "Trade Liberalization and "Revealed" Comparative Advantage", Manchester School of Economic and Social Studies, Vol.33, PP99-123.
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①周树立,论改革开放前的中国经济发展战略,经济经纬,2003(4)：36-38。
①周树立,论改革开放前的中国经济发展战略,经济经纬,2003(4)：36-38。
①周树立,论改革开放前的中国经济发展战略,经济经纬,200(4)：36-38。
①周其仁,一部未完成的产权改革史,经济观察报,2009年1月19日。
①周其仁,一部未完成的产权改革史,经济观察报,2009年1月19日。
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