商业银行个人理财产品市场竞争行为研究
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摘要
商业银行个人理财产品是银行基于某一特定的标的资产设计产品,向投资者募集资金并进行投资的一种工具,是个人理财业务在我国发展的特殊产物。自诞生以来,这一市场的发展十分迅速。在短短的七年时间内,无论是产品发行数量还是资金募集规模,都扩张了超过100倍,2010年,全国范围内商业银行共发行个人理财产品10858支,募集资金达到了7.05万亿,远远超过了保险、信托、基金等金融市场的规模水平。
然而在快速发展的同时,这一业务也在逐渐偏离其设计的最初目的——培育我国居民的理财意识,推动银行个人理财业务向国际先进水平靠拢。与之相对的是,理财产品被银行赋予了越来越多其他的功能,市场中也出现了一系列乱象。例如银行通过发行超短期高收益的产品,变相高息揽存,从而实现了其防止存款外流的目的；而通过与信托公司合作发行银信理财产品,银行实现了将表内资产转移至表外,规避信贷调控政策的目的。
虽然我国监管部门先后推出了如银信理财产品并表、清理委托贷款类和资金池类产品等一系列相关业务操作指引,对理财产品市场进行规范,也起到了一定的成效,但从长远来看,因为缺乏对市场全面系统的分析及相关理论依据,目前这一市场的监管还不具备系统性和前瞻性。
本文在学术的角度,第一次对理财产品市场进行了系统性的实证研究,分析了当前我国理财产品市场中影响银行行为的各主要因素,以及银行行为带来的相关问题。这些研究,可以为未来规范银行行为,引导理财产品市场向正确的方向发展提供一定的理论依据和借鉴。
本文从三个方面研究了影响银行理财产品业务行为的因素,分别是：
首先,本文基于“市场结构-厂商绩效”关系的理论基础,研究分析了理财产品市场结构对银行潜在盈利能力及其行为的影响。研究发现,处于集中度较高的理财产品市场中的银行,其理财产品业务的潜在盈利能力较强；而同一市场中份额较大的银行,潜在盈利水平也相对更高。在此基础上,本文进一步发现,集中的市场结构和较高的银行潜在盈利能力,可以促使银行保持行为的连续性。盈利能力强的银行,会保持其产品发行水平,同时不会随意退出市场,而在集中度高的市场中,银行整体的参与率也较高。因此,监管部门可以适当的鼓励具有理财产品业务优势的银行发挥自身实力,帮助构建适合理财产品发展的市场结构。
其次,本文基于“市场结构-创新”关系的理论基础,研究了银行在存贷业务市场中的竞争力对其理财产品市场行为的影响。研究发现,银行在存贷业务领域的区域竞争力会抑制其在该区域理财产品业务的发展,拥有较弱存贷业务竞争力的银行,在地区市场中发行的产品数量更多,同时愿意给予投资者的收益水平也更高,说明这些银行对理财产品的重视程度更高。这一结论证明了存贷业务与理财产品业务间存在着紧密的联系,在一定程度上可以解释当前理财产品市场中存在的一些乱象,根据这一结论,未来要想防止银行利用理财产品规避存贷业务监管,必须切断理财产品向存贷业务输送利益的通道,彻底清除银行强加于理财产品的不符合其发展初衷的功能。
第三,本文基于“市场竞争与银行冒险行为”关系的理论基础,研究了银行面临的理财产品市场竞争水平对其行为的影响。研究发现,一方面,银行在面临较高的理财产品市场竞争水平时,会提高自身产品的预期收益水平,这会引发银行间的过度竞争,从而使理财产品的定价偏离其应有的基于标的资产和产品特征的的正常定价水平。另一方面,竞争水平的提高会促使银行在确定产品标的资产时进行逆向选择,用更多高风险的标的资产设计产品,从而提高了产品的内在风险水平。这两类行为都会使理财产品市场整体的风险水平超出正常的范围,不利于该市场的健康发展。
在实证研究结论的基础上,本文又进一步探索了解决当前市场中存在的问题的可能方法,设计了一个规范银行行为,引导市场向正确的方向发展的机制,即建立一个全国性统一的理财产品市场——集中性的交易平台——并辅助以收益率上限管制和信息披露集中审核等配套政策措施。通过这一平台,可以打破当前理财产品市场区域化分割的特征,帮助在理财产品业务领域具有优势的银行充分发挥实力,同时在很大程度上消除银行存贷业务发展对其理财产品业务行为的影响,并且能够将市场风险水平控制在正常的范围之内。这一机制,可以为监管部门相关政策的制定提供一定的借鉴。
除了上述的研究内容外,本文还系统回顾了我国商业银行个人理财产品的发展历程。这一回顾,有助于我们厘清理财产品发展的历史轨迹和脉络,从而更好的理解和把握这一市场的现状及未来发展的方向。此外,本文还在统计分析的基础上,全方位展示了理财产品市场发展历程中在产品发行、产品要素和市场结构等方面所呈现出的各种特征,这些特征是银行行为的结果,通过它们,我们可以更加深入的理解银行在这一市场中的各种行为,从而为未来更好的规范银行行为提供帮助。
本文的主要贡献在于：一是填补了我国银行理财产品领域实证研究的空白；二是系统揭示了理财产品市场的主要特征,以及影响银行在这一市场中行为的主要因素,从而为监管部门制定政策提供了一定的依据；三是检验了理财产品领域中相关产业组织理论和金融学理论的适用性。此外,诸如利率市场化,保险、信托产品的监管等问题,也可以从本文的结论中提出出一些有价值的信息。
Chinese commercial bank personal finance products (PFPs as the abbreviation) is a kind of investment instrument, which is designed by commercial bank for gathering capital to invest in one or more certain underlying assets. This market was initiated in2004. In the last7years, it has been developed very fastly. In2010this market has issued more than10thousands PFPs and gathered7.05trillion RMB capital, that is almost two times of the scale than the insurance, trust or fund market.
While fast develpment, banks' behaviors in this market have some problems that will lead this market away from its initial objective which is helping Chinese citizens to set up their personal finance sense, and becoming the basis of bank personal finance service in the future. Banks always use PFPs to acheive other goals, such as attracting more savings, or even avoiding the regulation. At the same time, the regulation policies in this area are far behind the practice, the supervisor always issue new regulatory policy after the risk exposure has happened. There is no empirical research that focuses on the PFP market in China, so the government can not find any theoretical support when they set regulatory policies. This paper is trying to fill the blank.
This paper has focused on the factors which affect the banks' behavior in the PFP market, and the problems caused by these behaviors, there are three major findings:
Firstly, this paper first tests the relationship between PFP market structure and banks'performance (the profit ability). The empirical result show that market concentration can bring bank higher PFP profit, bank with market power also perform better, this result support the traditional "Structure-Conduct-Performance" theory. This paper also finds that, bank with good PFP performance will behave more continuously, at the same time, market with high concentration will have a high participation rate. This finding give us a suggestion that to encourage the bank which have PFP business advantage to be more stronger, it can help the market to establish a better structure.
Secondly, this paper based on the "market structure-innovating" theory, tests the relationship between saving&loan business market power and the banks'PFP market behavior. The result show that, when bank in a local market have market power in saving&loan business, it will perform worse in PFP market. These banks will issue less PFPs and give investors lower return, which means they just pay little attention on PFP market. These result means the saving&loan and PFP are connected tightly, so the PFP market will suffer lots of external shock come from the saving&loan market which will make the market unsteady. This finding can be used to explain some phenomenon in the PFP market.
Thirdly, this paper analyzes the relationship between competition bank faced in PFP market and their behaviors. The research shows that, competition would increase the market risk level. On the one hand, there could be an "excessive competition" between banks, banks will set a higher return which is away from the (?)easonable underlying assets based pricing for their PFPs when they face more competition; on the other hand, competition could force bank to choose more risky underlying assets, this kind of "adverse selection" behavior will increase the internal risk level of PFPs. These two behaviors will bring the PFP market a higher risk level than it should have.
Based on the three major findings, this paper has tried designing a system to solve these problems, which is creating a countrywide united PFP market. On this platform, banks can generate a suitable market structure with high concentration and banks have enough PFP profit, while the influence come from saving&loan business is cutting off. This system can also set a return ceiling and auditing mechanism, which will keep the market's risk in a reasonable range.
This paper also review the history of PFPs, besides that, it shows the major characters of the PFP market by statistics analysis, these research can also provide some help to this market's future development.
This paper has made three major contributions. First, it is the first empirical research focuses on the PFP market. Second, this paper summarized characters of the PFP market, and found out the major factor that affect banks' behavior in the PFP market, these findings can bring some help to the government when they set new PFP regulatory policies. Third, this paper tested some IO and finance theories with the PFP market data, it is a complement to these theories.
然而在快速发展的同时,这一业务也在逐渐偏离其设计的最初目的——培育我国居民的理财意识,推动银行个人理财业务向国际先进水平靠拢。与之相对的是,理财产品被银行赋予了越来越多其他的功能,市场中也出现了一系列乱象。例如银行通过发行超短期高收益的产品,变相高息揽存,从而实现了其防止存款外流的目的；而通过与信托公司合作发行银信理财产品,银行实现了将表内资产转移至表外,规避信贷调控政策的目的。
虽然我国监管部门先后推出了如银信理财产品并表、清理委托贷款类和资金池类产品等一系列相关业务操作指引,对理财产品市场进行规范,也起到了一定的成效,但从长远来看,因为缺乏对市场全面系统的分析及相关理论依据,目前这一市场的监管还不具备系统性和前瞻性。
本文在学术的角度,第一次对理财产品市场进行了系统性的实证研究,分析了当前我国理财产品市场中影响银行行为的各主要因素,以及银行行为带来的相关问题。这些研究,可以为未来规范银行行为,引导理财产品市场向正确的方向发展提供一定的理论依据和借鉴。
本文从三个方面研究了影响银行理财产品业务行为的因素,分别是：
首先,本文基于“市场结构-厂商绩效”关系的理论基础,研究分析了理财产品市场结构对银行潜在盈利能力及其行为的影响。研究发现,处于集中度较高的理财产品市场中的银行,其理财产品业务的潜在盈利能力较强；而同一市场中份额较大的银行,潜在盈利水平也相对更高。在此基础上,本文进一步发现,集中的市场结构和较高的银行潜在盈利能力,可以促使银行保持行为的连续性。盈利能力强的银行,会保持其产品发行水平,同时不会随意退出市场,而在集中度高的市场中,银行整体的参与率也较高。因此,监管部门可以适当的鼓励具有理财产品业务优势的银行发挥自身实力,帮助构建适合理财产品发展的市场结构。
其次,本文基于“市场结构-创新”关系的理论基础,研究了银行在存贷业务市场中的竞争力对其理财产品市场行为的影响。研究发现,银行在存贷业务领域的区域竞争力会抑制其在该区域理财产品业务的发展,拥有较弱存贷业务竞争力的银行,在地区市场中发行的产品数量更多,同时愿意给予投资者的收益水平也更高,说明这些银行对理财产品的重视程度更高。这一结论证明了存贷业务与理财产品业务间存在着紧密的联系,在一定程度上可以解释当前理财产品市场中存在的一些乱象,根据这一结论,未来要想防止银行利用理财产品规避存贷业务监管,必须切断理财产品向存贷业务输送利益的通道,彻底清除银行强加于理财产品的不符合其发展初衷的功能。
第三,本文基于“市场竞争与银行冒险行为”关系的理论基础,研究了银行面临的理财产品市场竞争水平对其行为的影响。研究发现,一方面,银行在面临较高的理财产品市场竞争水平时,会提高自身产品的预期收益水平,这会引发银行间的过度竞争,从而使理财产品的定价偏离其应有的基于标的资产和产品特征的的正常定价水平。另一方面,竞争水平的提高会促使银行在确定产品标的资产时进行逆向选择,用更多高风险的标的资产设计产品,从而提高了产品的内在风险水平。这两类行为都会使理财产品市场整体的风险水平超出正常的范围,不利于该市场的健康发展。
在实证研究结论的基础上,本文又进一步探索了解决当前市场中存在的问题的可能方法,设计了一个规范银行行为,引导市场向正确的方向发展的机制,即建立一个全国性统一的理财产品市场——集中性的交易平台——并辅助以收益率上限管制和信息披露集中审核等配套政策措施。通过这一平台,可以打破当前理财产品市场区域化分割的特征,帮助在理财产品业务领域具有优势的银行充分发挥实力,同时在很大程度上消除银行存贷业务发展对其理财产品业务行为的影响,并且能够将市场风险水平控制在正常的范围之内。这一机制,可以为监管部门相关政策的制定提供一定的借鉴。
除了上述的研究内容外,本文还系统回顾了我国商业银行个人理财产品的发展历程。这一回顾,有助于我们厘清理财产品发展的历史轨迹和脉络,从而更好的理解和把握这一市场的现状及未来发展的方向。此外,本文还在统计分析的基础上,全方位展示了理财产品市场发展历程中在产品发行、产品要素和市场结构等方面所呈现出的各种特征,这些特征是银行行为的结果,通过它们,我们可以更加深入的理解银行在这一市场中的各种行为,从而为未来更好的规范银行行为提供帮助。
本文的主要贡献在于：一是填补了我国银行理财产品领域实证研究的空白；二是系统揭示了理财产品市场的主要特征,以及影响银行在这一市场中行为的主要因素,从而为监管部门制定政策提供了一定的依据；三是检验了理财产品领域中相关产业组织理论和金融学理论的适用性。此外,诸如利率市场化,保险、信托产品的监管等问题,也可以从本文的结论中提出出一些有价值的信息。
Chinese commercial bank personal finance products (PFPs as the abbreviation) is a kind of investment instrument, which is designed by commercial bank for gathering capital to invest in one or more certain underlying assets. This market was initiated in2004. In the last7years, it has been developed very fastly. In2010this market has issued more than10thousands PFPs and gathered7.05trillion RMB capital, that is almost two times of the scale than the insurance, trust or fund market.
While fast develpment, banks' behaviors in this market have some problems that will lead this market away from its initial objective which is helping Chinese citizens to set up their personal finance sense, and becoming the basis of bank personal finance service in the future. Banks always use PFPs to acheive other goals, such as attracting more savings, or even avoiding the regulation. At the same time, the regulation policies in this area are far behind the practice, the supervisor always issue new regulatory policy after the risk exposure has happened. There is no empirical research that focuses on the PFP market in China, so the government can not find any theoretical support when they set regulatory policies. This paper is trying to fill the blank.
This paper has focused on the factors which affect the banks' behavior in the PFP market, and the problems caused by these behaviors, there are three major findings:
Firstly, this paper first tests the relationship between PFP market structure and banks'performance (the profit ability). The empirical result show that market concentration can bring bank higher PFP profit, bank with market power also perform better, this result support the traditional "Structure-Conduct-Performance" theory. This paper also finds that, bank with good PFP performance will behave more continuously, at the same time, market with high concentration will have a high participation rate. This finding give us a suggestion that to encourage the bank which have PFP business advantage to be more stronger, it can help the market to establish a better structure.
Secondly, this paper based on the "market structure-innovating" theory, tests the relationship between saving&loan business market power and the banks'PFP market behavior. The result show that, when bank in a local market have market power in saving&loan business, it will perform worse in PFP market. These banks will issue less PFPs and give investors lower return, which means they just pay little attention on PFP market. These result means the saving&loan and PFP are connected tightly, so the PFP market will suffer lots of external shock come from the saving&loan market which will make the market unsteady. This finding can be used to explain some phenomenon in the PFP market.
Thirdly, this paper analyzes the relationship between competition bank faced in PFP market and their behaviors. The research shows that, competition would increase the market risk level. On the one hand, there could be an "excessive competition" between banks, banks will set a higher return which is away from the (?)easonable underlying assets based pricing for their PFPs when they face more competition; on the other hand, competition could force bank to choose more risky underlying assets, this kind of "adverse selection" behavior will increase the internal risk level of PFPs. These two behaviors will bring the PFP market a higher risk level than it should have.
Based on the three major findings, this paper has tried designing a system to solve these problems, which is creating a countrywide united PFP market. On this platform, banks can generate a suitable market structure with high concentration and banks have enough PFP profit, while the influence come from saving&loan business is cutting off. This system can also set a return ceiling and auditing mechanism, which will keep the market's risk in a reasonable range.
This paper also review the history of PFPs, besides that, it shows the major characters of the PFP market by statistics analysis, these research can also provide some help to this market's future development.
This paper has made three major contributions. First, it is the first empirical research focuses on the PFP market. Second, this paper summarized characters of the PFP market, and found out the major factor that affect banks' behavior in the PFP market, these findings can bring some help to the government when they set new PFP regulatory policies. Third, this paper tested some IO and finance theories with the PFP market data, it is a complement to these theories.
引文
①马克思,《资本论》,人民出版社,1975年版,第8页。
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