管理浮动汇率制下的东亚外汇市场压力与市场干预
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摘要
东亚各国如新加坡、韩国、马来西亚、印尼、泰国、中国等大多实行过管理浮动汇率制。管理浮动汇率制的一个重要特征是外汇市场压力及外汇市场干预的存在。本文采用汇率弹性指数以及外汇市场压力指数和干预指数作为测度指标,从而对这些国家的外汇市场压力及市场干预特征进行了深入分析。
通过对各国的外汇市场压力指数进行分析可知,亚洲金融危机之后,各国的外汇市场存在升值压力的时期要多于存在贬值压力的时期。分析表明,外汇市场压力的产生与经济增长、储蓄投资、国际收支特征等变量有着密切的联系。各国国际收支状况与国际收支结构也对外汇市场压力有重要影响。马来西亚、韩国、新加坡外汇市场压力则更多地受其汇率制度灵活性的主导并反映了外部冲击的影响。
在此基础上,本文考察了各国汇率政策的特征及政策效应。亚洲金融危机后,大多东南亚国家都积极积累外汇储备以增强外汇市场干预能力。同时,这些国家倾向于低估本币币值,在本币存在升值压力时采取干预措施以避免本币的大幅升值,各国货币在升值周期的升值速度要慢于在贬值周期的贬值速度。韩国和新加坡的汇率调控值得借鉴,其货币当局对外汇市场的干预倾向于烫平外汇市场的波动性而非抑制本币的升值。新加坡政府并不强力干预本币的升值,但更倾向于在本币存在贬值压力时放任本币的适度贬值。韩国的情况表明,提高汇率弹性,实现货币升值,不仅可以减缓外汇储备增加的压力,还有利于更为独立的货币政策的实行,有助于宏观经济的稳定。本文还考察了外汇市场干预对各国经济增长、通货膨胀、国际收支、货币政策独立性等的影响。实证分析表明,各国的汇率政策在亚洲金融危机后都取得了不同程度的成功。
本文最后着重讨论了人民币升值压力下中国的汇率政策选择及其效果。分析表明,汇率制度改革之后人民币汇率的浮动程度已经大大提高。中国货币当局一方面允许本币升值,另一方面仍力图控制本币的升值趋势。中国人民银行在外汇市场进行了干预,并采取了冲销措施,但干预的效果并不理想。为了缓解外汇市场升值压力,必须减少经济主体面临的收入约束和金融发展约束。
East Asian countries such as Singapore, Korea, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, China and other countries, has adopted managed float regime in many periods. An important feature of managed float regime is that there are exchange market pressure and market intervention. In this paper, exchange flexibility index, foreign exchange market pressure index and intervention index are used to analysis exchange market pressure and intervention in these countries.
After the Asian financial crisis, the appreciation periods on the foreign exchange market were more than the depreciation periods. Analysis showed that exchange market pressure is closely linked with economic growth, savings and investment, international balance of payments and other variables. The structure of the international balance of payments has a major impact on exchange market pressure. Exchange market pressure of Malaysia, South Korea, Singapore are even more dominated by its flexible exchange rate regime and the impact of external shocks.
On this basis, this paper examines the characteristics of national exchange-rate policy and policy effects. After the Asian financial crisis, most Southeast Asian countries are actively accumulating foreign exchange reserves to strengthen the exchange market intervention capabilities. At the same time, these countries tend to underestimate the value of the currency. South Korea and Singapore should be learned for the exchange rate adjustment, their monetary authorities intervene in exchange markets to iron the foreign exchange market volatility rather than curb the appreciation of local currency. Singapore does not strongly interfere with the currency appreciation, but inclines to exist in the currency depreciation pressure, laissez-faire moderate depreciation of the currency. South Korea shows that, the increased exchange rate flexibility to achieve currency appreciation, not only can slow the increasing pressure on foreign reserves, but also can achieve independent monetary policy, contributing to macroeconomic stability. The article also examines the exchange market intervention effects on the national economic growth, inflation, balance of payments, monetary policy independence. Empirical analysis shows that exchange rate policy in these countries after the Asian financial crisis have achieved various degree of success.
The end of this article focused on China's exchange rate policy and its effect under the RMB appreciation pressure. Analysis shows that, after the reform of the RMB exchange regime, exchange rate flexibility has dramatically increased. China's monetary authority allows the currency appreciation; on the other hand, it is still trying to control the trend of currency appreciation. People's Bank of China intervened in the foreign exchange market, and has taken write-off measures, but the effect of the intervention is not satisfactory. In order to ease the appreciation pressure on the foreign exchange market, it must reduce the income constraints faced by economic agents and financial development constraints.
通过对各国的外汇市场压力指数进行分析可知,亚洲金融危机之后,各国的外汇市场存在升值压力的时期要多于存在贬值压力的时期。分析表明,外汇市场压力的产生与经济增长、储蓄投资、国际收支特征等变量有着密切的联系。各国国际收支状况与国际收支结构也对外汇市场压力有重要影响。马来西亚、韩国、新加坡外汇市场压力则更多地受其汇率制度灵活性的主导并反映了外部冲击的影响。
在此基础上,本文考察了各国汇率政策的特征及政策效应。亚洲金融危机后,大多东南亚国家都积极积累外汇储备以增强外汇市场干预能力。同时,这些国家倾向于低估本币币值,在本币存在升值压力时采取干预措施以避免本币的大幅升值,各国货币在升值周期的升值速度要慢于在贬值周期的贬值速度。韩国和新加坡的汇率调控值得借鉴,其货币当局对外汇市场的干预倾向于烫平外汇市场的波动性而非抑制本币的升值。新加坡政府并不强力干预本币的升值,但更倾向于在本币存在贬值压力时放任本币的适度贬值。韩国的情况表明,提高汇率弹性,实现货币升值,不仅可以减缓外汇储备增加的压力,还有利于更为独立的货币政策的实行,有助于宏观经济的稳定。本文还考察了外汇市场干预对各国经济增长、通货膨胀、国际收支、货币政策独立性等的影响。实证分析表明,各国的汇率政策在亚洲金融危机后都取得了不同程度的成功。
本文最后着重讨论了人民币升值压力下中国的汇率政策选择及其效果。分析表明,汇率制度改革之后人民币汇率的浮动程度已经大大提高。中国货币当局一方面允许本币升值,另一方面仍力图控制本币的升值趋势。中国人民银行在外汇市场进行了干预,并采取了冲销措施,但干预的效果并不理想。为了缓解外汇市场升值压力,必须减少经济主体面临的收入约束和金融发展约束。
East Asian countries such as Singapore, Korea, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, China and other countries, has adopted managed float regime in many periods. An important feature of managed float regime is that there are exchange market pressure and market intervention. In this paper, exchange flexibility index, foreign exchange market pressure index and intervention index are used to analysis exchange market pressure and intervention in these countries.
After the Asian financial crisis, the appreciation periods on the foreign exchange market were more than the depreciation periods. Analysis showed that exchange market pressure is closely linked with economic growth, savings and investment, international balance of payments and other variables. The structure of the international balance of payments has a major impact on exchange market pressure. Exchange market pressure of Malaysia, South Korea, Singapore are even more dominated by its flexible exchange rate regime and the impact of external shocks.
On this basis, this paper examines the characteristics of national exchange-rate policy and policy effects. After the Asian financial crisis, most Southeast Asian countries are actively accumulating foreign exchange reserves to strengthen the exchange market intervention capabilities. At the same time, these countries tend to underestimate the value of the currency. South Korea and Singapore should be learned for the exchange rate adjustment, their monetary authorities intervene in exchange markets to iron the foreign exchange market volatility rather than curb the appreciation of local currency. Singapore does not strongly interfere with the currency appreciation, but inclines to exist in the currency depreciation pressure, laissez-faire moderate depreciation of the currency. South Korea shows that, the increased exchange rate flexibility to achieve currency appreciation, not only can slow the increasing pressure on foreign reserves, but also can achieve independent monetary policy, contributing to macroeconomic stability. The article also examines the exchange market intervention effects on the national economic growth, inflation, balance of payments, monetary policy independence. Empirical analysis shows that exchange rate policy in these countries after the Asian financial crisis have achieved various degree of success.
The end of this article focused on China's exchange rate policy and its effect under the RMB appreciation pressure. Analysis shows that, after the reform of the RMB exchange regime, exchange rate flexibility has dramatically increased. China's monetary authority allows the currency appreciation; on the other hand, it is still trying to control the trend of currency appreciation. People's Bank of China intervened in the foreign exchange market, and has taken write-off measures, but the effect of the intervention is not satisfactory. In order to ease the appreciation pressure on the foreign exchange market, it must reduce the income constraints faced by economic agents and financial development constraints.
引文
1姜波克：《国际金融新编(第四版)》,复旦大学出版社,2008年,pp.184。
2姜波克：《国际金融新编(第四版)》,复旦大学出版社,2008年,pp.184。
3姜波克：《国际金融新编(第四版)》,复旦大学出版社,2008年,pp.184。
4易纲：《汇率制度的选择》,《金融研究》2000年第9期,pp.46-52。
6资料来源：IMF, InternationalFinancialStatistics,1999.4
7 Bauer, C., Seitz, M.,2007. Classification of de facto exchange rate regimes revisited:Currency baskets. mimeo.
8参见：沈国兵(2003),第12页。
9 Christian Bauer,Bernhard Herz, Monetary and Exchange Rate Stability in South and East Asia, Pacific-Basin Finance Journal (2008), doi:10.1016/j.pacfin.2008.07.002
10庄后响：《管理浮动汇率制研究——从国际经验到人民币管理浮动汇率制》,复旦大学博士学位论文,2008年,pp.4。
13 Heller.Robert H.Determinants of Exchange Rate Practices [J]. Journal of Money,Credit and Banking 1978 August:308-321
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15 Williamson, John,1991. "Adviceon thechoiceofan exchange ratepolicy," In E.M. Claassen, ed., ExchangeRate Policies in Developing and Post-Socialist Countries. San Francisco:ICS Press for the International Center for Economic Growth.
16吴建涛：《发展战略与汇率制度选择》,《财经科学》2009年第2期,pp.96-102。
17 Grilli,V. and Milesi-FerrettiG.M.,1995, Economic Effects and Structural Determnants of Capital Controls, IMFWorkingPaperNo.95P31.
18 Frenkel,M., Nickel.C., Schmidt,G. and Stadtmann,G.,2001, the Effects of Capitals on Exchange Rate Volatility and Output, IMF Working Paper01187, WashingtonD.C.
19 易刚：汇率制度的选择,金融研究,2000年第9期,pp.46-52。
20 郭建泉、周茂荣：《弹性汇率制度下资本控制的经济效应》,《经济研究》2003年第5期,pp.48-56。
21 张卫平、王一鸣：《汇率制度的分类、国别分布及历史演进》,《国际金融研究》2007年第5期,pp.54-60。
22 Bauer, C., Herz, B.,2004. Noise traders and the volatility of exchange rates Quantitative Finance 4(4),399～415
23 Bauer, C., Seitz, M.,2007. Classification of de facto exchange rate regimes revisited:Currency baskets. Mimeo.
24 Levy-Yeyati and Sturzenegger, F.,2004. Classifying exchange rate regimes:Deeds vs. words. European Economic Review 49(6),1603-1635.
25麦金农,《东亚美元本位、浮动恐惧和原罪》,《经济社会体制比较》2003年第3期。麦金农：《美元本位制下的汇率风险——东亚高储蓄两难》,中国金融出版社,2005。
26沈红芳：《东南亚国家的汇率制度改革与变迁研究》,《东南亚研究》2008年第3期,pp.26～31。
27数据来源：博鳌亚洲论坛《2005年度报告》(英文版)第1页
28数据来源：黄范章主编：《东亚经济蓝皮书2000——2005年》,经济科学出版社,2006年9月第一版,pp.3。
29 Word Bank, The East Asian Miracle. Economic Growth and Public Policy's 1993 year.
44管涛、韩会师：《应对本币升值压力的国际经验与教训》,《南方金融》2006年第2期,pp.21-25
45美 丁-罗沃著,张绍宗译：《亚洲的崛起》,上海人民出版社1997年版,第3-4页。
46美 丁-罗沃著,张绍宗译：《亚洲的崛起》,上海人民出版社1997年版,第9页。
47许少强《东亚经济体的汇率变动》上海财经大学出版社2002.3 P.65。
49张礼卿：《中国的外部失衡及其调整》,《国际金融研究》2008年第9期,pp.04-10。
50张礼卿：《中国的外部失衡及其调整》,《国际金融研究》2008年第9期,pp.04-10。
51参见：Aris Ananta and Yohanes Eko Riyanto:《行进在崎岖的道路上：新兴民主时代的印度尼西亚经济》,《南阳资料译丛》2007年第3期,pp11-19
52李晓娣：《新加坡经济振兴与衰退的原因及启示》,《当代财经》2004年第9期,pp.87-90
53贺水金：《泰国与马来西亚汇率制度的比较研究》,《上海经济研究》2005年第12期,pp.116-122
55《亚行专家分析资本流入对东亚国家的影响并提出政策建议》,中华人民共和国财政部网站http://www.mof.gov.cn/guoiisi/pindaoliebiao/iingyaniiaoliu/200807/t20080709_56602.html
56参阅：彭文平：《泰国和印尼经济复苏的措施及特点》,《东南亚纵横》2003年第9期,pp.25-29
65以下数据来源：International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, October 2007。
66来自www.bot.or.th(泰国银行网站)。
67刘兴华：《后危机时期泰国的汇率安排及其改革模式》,《亚太经济》2007年第6期,pp.41-45
68张礼卿：《发展中国家的资本账户开放：理论、政策与经验》[M],经济科学出版社,2000
691998年苏哈托总统下台,印尼从独裁政权转变为民主政权。
70韩晶：《东南亚国家金融危机后的金融改革与前瞻》,《亚太经济》2003年第4期,pp.20-22
71王海全、毕家新、谢进：《印度尼西亚汇率制度变迁研究》,《区域金融研究》2009年第12期,pp.44-49
72转引自Stefan Colligno(1999)等,"Exchange Rate Policies in Emerging Asian Countries",第25页,Routledge, London.
73 Aris Ananta和Yohanes Eko Riyanto;《行进在崎岖的道路上：新兴民主时代的印度尼西亚经济》,《南洋资料译丛》2007年第3期,pp.11-19
74数据来源：印度尼西亚中央统计局
75郑文、李华眐：《新加坡货币升值的启示》,《宏观经济管理》2007年第2期,pp.72-74
76参见MAS(2001,Feb), "Singapore's exchange rate policy",Box Item 1.
77常用的估算货币篮子的计量模型是Frankel and Wei(1994)所采用的OLS模型。
78数据来源：Yearbook of Statistics Singapore. http://www.singstat.gov.sg/pubn/reference.html#yos。转引自,林斐婷：《新加坡汇率制度分析》,《闽江学院学报》2008年第12期,pp.56-61
79迈克尔·穆萨等：《世界经济一体化进程中的汇率制度》,中国金融出版社,2003
87数据来源：《二○○六年第四季度中国货币政策执行报告》。
88数据来源：中国人民银行网站,http://www.pbc.gov.cn/。
89对国民收入增长和利率变化的国际收支效应和汇率效应的详细讨论可参阅姜波克著《国际金融新编(第三版)》复旦大学出版社2001年8月第三版
90克里斯·布鲁克斯著邹宏元译《金融计量经济学导论》西南财经大学出版社2005年6月第一版
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2姜波克：《国际金融新编(第四版)》,复旦大学出版社,2008年,pp.184。
3姜波克：《国际金融新编(第四版)》,复旦大学出版社,2008年,pp.184。
4易纲：《汇率制度的选择》,《金融研究》2000年第9期,pp.46-52。
6资料来源：IMF, InternationalFinancialStatistics,1999.4
7 Bauer, C., Seitz, M.,2007. Classification of de facto exchange rate regimes revisited:Currency baskets. mimeo.
8参见：沈国兵(2003),第12页。
9 Christian Bauer,Bernhard Herz, Monetary and Exchange Rate Stability in South and East Asia, Pacific-Basin Finance Journal (2008), doi:10.1016/j.pacfin.2008.07.002
10庄后响：《管理浮动汇率制研究——从国际经验到人民币管理浮动汇率制》,复旦大学博士学位论文,2008年,pp.4。
13 Heller.Robert H.Determinants of Exchange Rate Practices [J]. Journal of Money,Credit and Banking 1978 August:308-321
14 朱耀春：《汇率制度的国际比较研究及影响因素分析》,《国际金融研究》2003年第10期,pp.39-46。
15 Williamson, John,1991. "Adviceon thechoiceofan exchange ratepolicy," In E.M. Claassen, ed., ExchangeRate Policies in Developing and Post-Socialist Countries. San Francisco:ICS Press for the International Center for Economic Growth.
16吴建涛：《发展战略与汇率制度选择》,《财经科学》2009年第2期,pp.96-102。
17 Grilli,V. and Milesi-FerrettiG.M.,1995, Economic Effects and Structural Determnants of Capital Controls, IMFWorkingPaperNo.95P31.
18 Frenkel,M., Nickel.C., Schmidt,G. and Stadtmann,G.,2001, the Effects of Capitals on Exchange Rate Volatility and Output, IMF Working Paper01187, WashingtonD.C.
19 易刚：汇率制度的选择,金融研究,2000年第9期,pp.46-52。
20 郭建泉、周茂荣：《弹性汇率制度下资本控制的经济效应》,《经济研究》2003年第5期,pp.48-56。
21 张卫平、王一鸣：《汇率制度的分类、国别分布及历史演进》,《国际金融研究》2007年第5期,pp.54-60。
22 Bauer, C., Herz, B.,2004. Noise traders and the volatility of exchange rates Quantitative Finance 4(4),399～415
23 Bauer, C., Seitz, M.,2007. Classification of de facto exchange rate regimes revisited:Currency baskets. Mimeo.
24 Levy-Yeyati and Sturzenegger, F.,2004. Classifying exchange rate regimes:Deeds vs. words. European Economic Review 49(6),1603-1635.
25麦金农,《东亚美元本位、浮动恐惧和原罪》,《经济社会体制比较》2003年第3期。麦金农：《美元本位制下的汇率风险——东亚高储蓄两难》,中国金融出版社,2005。
26沈红芳：《东南亚国家的汇率制度改革与变迁研究》,《东南亚研究》2008年第3期,pp.26～31。
27数据来源：博鳌亚洲论坛《2005年度报告》(英文版)第1页
28数据来源：黄范章主编：《东亚经济蓝皮书2000——2005年》,经济科学出版社,2006年9月第一版,pp.3。
29 Word Bank, The East Asian Miracle. Economic Growth and Public Policy's 1993 year.
44管涛、韩会师：《应对本币升值压力的国际经验与教训》,《南方金融》2006年第2期,pp.21-25
45美 丁-罗沃著,张绍宗译：《亚洲的崛起》,上海人民出版社1997年版,第3-4页。
46美 丁-罗沃著,张绍宗译：《亚洲的崛起》,上海人民出版社1997年版,第9页。
47许少强《东亚经济体的汇率变动》上海财经大学出版社2002.3 P.65。
49张礼卿：《中国的外部失衡及其调整》,《国际金融研究》2008年第9期,pp.04-10。
50张礼卿：《中国的外部失衡及其调整》,《国际金融研究》2008年第9期,pp.04-10。
51参见：Aris Ananta and Yohanes Eko Riyanto:《行进在崎岖的道路上：新兴民主时代的印度尼西亚经济》,《南阳资料译丛》2007年第3期,pp11-19
52李晓娣：《新加坡经济振兴与衰退的原因及启示》,《当代财经》2004年第9期,pp.87-90
53贺水金：《泰国与马来西亚汇率制度的比较研究》,《上海经济研究》2005年第12期,pp.116-122
55《亚行专家分析资本流入对东亚国家的影响并提出政策建议》,中华人民共和国财政部网站http://www.mof.gov.cn/guoiisi/pindaoliebiao/iingyaniiaoliu/200807/t20080709_56602.html
56参阅：彭文平：《泰国和印尼经济复苏的措施及特点》,《东南亚纵横》2003年第9期,pp.25-29
65以下数据来源：International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, October 2007。
66来自www.bot.or.th(泰国银行网站)。
67刘兴华：《后危机时期泰国的汇率安排及其改革模式》,《亚太经济》2007年第6期,pp.41-45
68张礼卿：《发展中国家的资本账户开放：理论、政策与经验》[M],经济科学出版社,2000
691998年苏哈托总统下台,印尼从独裁政权转变为民主政权。
70韩晶：《东南亚国家金融危机后的金融改革与前瞻》,《亚太经济》2003年第4期,pp.20-22
71王海全、毕家新、谢进：《印度尼西亚汇率制度变迁研究》,《区域金融研究》2009年第12期,pp.44-49
72转引自Stefan Colligno(1999)等,"Exchange Rate Policies in Emerging Asian Countries",第25页,Routledge, London.
73 Aris Ananta和Yohanes Eko Riyanto;《行进在崎岖的道路上：新兴民主时代的印度尼西亚经济》,《南洋资料译丛》2007年第3期,pp.11-19
74数据来源：印度尼西亚中央统计局
75郑文、李华眐：《新加坡货币升值的启示》,《宏观经济管理》2007年第2期,pp.72-74
76参见MAS(2001,Feb), "Singapore's exchange rate policy",Box Item 1.
77常用的估算货币篮子的计量模型是Frankel and Wei(1994)所采用的OLS模型。
78数据来源：Yearbook of Statistics Singapore. http://www.singstat.gov.sg/pubn/reference.html#yos。转引自,林斐婷：《新加坡汇率制度分析》,《闽江学院学报》2008年第12期,pp.56-61
79迈克尔·穆萨等：《世界经济一体化进程中的汇率制度》,中国金融出版社,2003
87数据来源：《二○○六年第四季度中国货币政策执行报告》。
88数据来源：中国人民银行网站,http://www.pbc.gov.cn/。
89对国民收入增长和利率变化的国际收支效应和汇率效应的详细讨论可参阅姜波克著《国际金融新编(第三版)》复旦大学出版社2001年8月第三版
90克里斯·布鲁克斯著邹宏元译《金融计量经济学导论》西南财经大学出版社2005年6月第一版
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