金融体系的比较、内生演进与中国的选择
|
摘要
金融是现代经济的核心,世界各国无不重视金融体系的建设与完善,因为稳健而有效率的金融体系是一个国家经济健康发展的前提。
Arrow-Debreu一般均衡模型作为分析金融体系的基准,把金融中介和金融市场视为储蓄者和投资者的集合,金融体系仅仅充当最终借款者和最终贷款者之间进行交易的被动媒介,从而疏漏了金融市场和金融中介的组织性质,也不可能容纳制度环境的作用,同时不能正确的认识到金融发展本身就是增长,金融发展和经济增长具有共同的原因。为此,论文试图突破以往研究金融发展的宏观主流范式,从微观机制上考察金融体系内生形成与演进的规律。
论文以市场主导型与银行主导型两类金融体系的功能比较为出发点,依次讨论了其在解决风险分散、信息处理和公司治理这三个问题上的不同和差异。研究发现不同金融体系在流动性提供、事后监督、风险分散、信息处理、为新技术融资和促进公司治理等方面各有优劣,金融体系的出现并非基于这种优劣比较基础上有意选择的结果。不同国家的相当不同的市场或机构可能履行了同样的功能,各种金融中介机构和金融产品都是实现金融功能的载体。
论文把金融体系的形成与演进视为一个专业化分工的过程,在这个过程中,金融创新活动居于核心地位。由于金融交易活动中的费用、信息不对称和不确定性,现实世界中的金融体系作为理想世界中的直接金融合约市场的替代物而内生出来。一个国家只有具备了有效率的经济组织产生的制度条件,才能容纳金融体系的扩展,得到经济的快速增长。虽然由于不同国家的市场规模、交易效率和交易费用的类型和大小具有差异性,金融组织的结构和形式会有所不同,金融体系分工演进的模式不同从而具有不同的金融体系类型和金融制度安排,但只要具备了金融发展和经济增长的根本性制度条件,同样会达到较高的金融深化水平和经济发展水平,故而,金融发展具有多重均衡的可能。正如金融体系的产生是企业家寻求的结果,金融制度安排也是被管制者所寻求的,而只有这样内生的金融制度安排才是有效率的。
改革开放以来,我国的金融体系在数量上经历了由银行主导到银行地位逐渐下降的变化进程,但这种数量上的相似性并不意味着我国的金融体系遵循了内生演进的一般规律,相反,在国民收入分配格局变化、渐进性体制转轨路径的确立、政府对经济的强有力控制及经济转轨初期的低货币化水平等初始条件的制约和影响下,我国的金融体系走上了另一条演进路径,政府无论在银行体系的形成和扩张中还是在股票市场的兴起中都起了主导作用。在政府主导型的金融体系演进路径中,由政府的目标函数所决定,银行体系和金融市场的首要功能在于为国有经济提供金融支持,由此造成了现阶段我国金融体系严重的功能性缺陷和结构性矛盾,进而间接融资和直接融资的严重低效率,因此,必须通过金融结构的调整改变我国金融体系的演进路径,使金融体系的功能得以充分发挥。
中国目前积极发展资本市场显然是必要的,但是“市场”并非是一个抽象的概念,它涉及到金融工具、交易制度和金融机构和相关的监管、投资者保护等法律安排。我们不能简单地将市场与金融中介对立起来,市场的发展并不排斥金融中介的发展,金融市场与金融中介从静态角度看,是竞争关系,从动态角度看则是相互促进、“螺旋发展”的关系。不同金融体系的演进趋势不是互相替代,而是融合。市场和中介的关系是竞争中的互相依存。一国金融体系的改革重点不应是简单的发展银行中介或金融市场,而是综合两者的优势,加强金融基础设施的建设,促进信息的生产和交流,完善相关的法律体系与金融监管体系以便于整个金融体系服务功能的充分发挥。
The finance is the core of the modern economy. All countrys and regions focus on constructing financial system since a steady and efficient financial system is the base of a national economy's healthy development.
As the basis of the analytical financial system, financial intermediaries and financial market were viewed as an aggregation concluding both depositors and investors by Arrow-Debreu general equilibrium model. Financial systems merely serve as an intermedium passively between the final borrowers and lenders proceeding to trade. The localization on analysis frame of orthodox financial theories cannot but neglects characters of both financial market and financial intermediaries, and it then impossibly embody the effect of institution circumstance. At the same time, it also make person cannot have cognizance of that financial development itself is to increase, and both financial development and economic growth have the common reason. For this, the article tries to break through the before research pattern and investigates endogenous evolution of financial system from microcosmic mechanism.
The article takes two kinds of financial systems'function comparison as point of departure and has discussed various approaches and differences between two kinds of financial systems when they handle with risk sharing and management, information processing and corporate governance.The fact drives us to a conclusion:diferent financial system has each superiority in aspects of liquidity supply, post supervision, risk sharing, information processing, financing for advanced technology and accelerate corporate governance.
Secondly, this paper regards the formulation of financial system as a course of both division of labor and specialization. In this course, financial innovation is essential. Because of transaction cost, asymmetric information and uncertainty existing in the activities of financial transaction, financial systems in real world are created endogenously, which can be viewed as substitutes of immediate financial contract market in ideal one. Only one nation possesses institution terms that can result in the creation of efficient economic organization, could hold an expansion of the financial system and achieve a great economic growth. Because the type and size of the market scale, trade efficiency and trade expenses of diferent countries are diferent, it not only changes the structure and form offinancial or ganization, but also brings on the diferent modes of evolution in division of labor of financial systems, which is the reason of forming diferent financial system types and financial institution arrangements. However, once one country has possessed fundamental institution terms of financial development and economic growth, it will get higher finance-deepen level and economic development level. Financial development has a possibility of multiple equilibrium. For the developing countries and transition ones, which lack of institution terms needed in financial development, imitating the financial system of the developed countries can not bring on anticipated financial development and economic growth. Just as formulation of the financial system is the result of entrepreneurs' seeking, financial institution arrangements are also looked for by the supervisor, while this kind of endogenous financial institution arrangement is most efficient.
Thirdly, the financial system of our country has experienced the process from the bank-oriended system to the descend position of bank on quantity since reform opening, but the likeness of this kind of quantity does not mean our financial system is following the inside regulation of the evolution, on the contrary, the variety of allotment structure on national income, the establishment of transition path on reform, government's powerful control to the economy and the low currency level etc made our financial system walk up another evolution path. Not only in the formation of the bank system with extend but also the boom of stock market, government has a predominant function.In financial system of predominanced government, the initial function of the financial market and the bank system lie in providing finance support for the state economy, resulting in the severe functional shortcoming and structural inconsistency of our financial system, so the low efficiency of financial system.We have to adjust the finance structure to change the evolution path of our financial system and make the function of the financial system work well.
China's developping the capital market actively is obviously necessary at present, but the market is not an abstract concept, it involves the financial tools, trade system, financing institution and investor protecting etc. We can't in brief lie to stand opposite in the market and finance, the development of market doesn't reject the development of financial intermediate.It is the competition relation lying to see from the static state angle or the relation of spiral development seeing from the dynamic state angle on the contrary. Diferent finance systems progress gradually by sticking to gether but not superseding.There lationship between market and bank is to depend on for existence incompetition.The emphasis for one finance system's reform will not be simply improving bank intermediation or financial market, it is vital to synthesize the superiotities, enhance construction of basic financial infrastructure, promote the production and exchange of information and to perfect relative law system and financial supervision system to make the finance systems work more effectual.
Arrow-Debreu一般均衡模型作为分析金融体系的基准,把金融中介和金融市场视为储蓄者和投资者的集合,金融体系仅仅充当最终借款者和最终贷款者之间进行交易的被动媒介,从而疏漏了金融市场和金融中介的组织性质,也不可能容纳制度环境的作用,同时不能正确的认识到金融发展本身就是增长,金融发展和经济增长具有共同的原因。为此,论文试图突破以往研究金融发展的宏观主流范式,从微观机制上考察金融体系内生形成与演进的规律。
论文以市场主导型与银行主导型两类金融体系的功能比较为出发点,依次讨论了其在解决风险分散、信息处理和公司治理这三个问题上的不同和差异。研究发现不同金融体系在流动性提供、事后监督、风险分散、信息处理、为新技术融资和促进公司治理等方面各有优劣,金融体系的出现并非基于这种优劣比较基础上有意选择的结果。不同国家的相当不同的市场或机构可能履行了同样的功能,各种金融中介机构和金融产品都是实现金融功能的载体。
论文把金融体系的形成与演进视为一个专业化分工的过程,在这个过程中,金融创新活动居于核心地位。由于金融交易活动中的费用、信息不对称和不确定性,现实世界中的金融体系作为理想世界中的直接金融合约市场的替代物而内生出来。一个国家只有具备了有效率的经济组织产生的制度条件,才能容纳金融体系的扩展,得到经济的快速增长。虽然由于不同国家的市场规模、交易效率和交易费用的类型和大小具有差异性,金融组织的结构和形式会有所不同,金融体系分工演进的模式不同从而具有不同的金融体系类型和金融制度安排,但只要具备了金融发展和经济增长的根本性制度条件,同样会达到较高的金融深化水平和经济发展水平,故而,金融发展具有多重均衡的可能。正如金融体系的产生是企业家寻求的结果,金融制度安排也是被管制者所寻求的,而只有这样内生的金融制度安排才是有效率的。
改革开放以来,我国的金融体系在数量上经历了由银行主导到银行地位逐渐下降的变化进程,但这种数量上的相似性并不意味着我国的金融体系遵循了内生演进的一般规律,相反,在国民收入分配格局变化、渐进性体制转轨路径的确立、政府对经济的强有力控制及经济转轨初期的低货币化水平等初始条件的制约和影响下,我国的金融体系走上了另一条演进路径,政府无论在银行体系的形成和扩张中还是在股票市场的兴起中都起了主导作用。在政府主导型的金融体系演进路径中,由政府的目标函数所决定,银行体系和金融市场的首要功能在于为国有经济提供金融支持,由此造成了现阶段我国金融体系严重的功能性缺陷和结构性矛盾,进而间接融资和直接融资的严重低效率,因此,必须通过金融结构的调整改变我国金融体系的演进路径,使金融体系的功能得以充分发挥。
中国目前积极发展资本市场显然是必要的,但是“市场”并非是一个抽象的概念,它涉及到金融工具、交易制度和金融机构和相关的监管、投资者保护等法律安排。我们不能简单地将市场与金融中介对立起来,市场的发展并不排斥金融中介的发展,金融市场与金融中介从静态角度看,是竞争关系,从动态角度看则是相互促进、“螺旋发展”的关系。不同金融体系的演进趋势不是互相替代,而是融合。市场和中介的关系是竞争中的互相依存。一国金融体系的改革重点不应是简单的发展银行中介或金融市场,而是综合两者的优势,加强金融基础设施的建设,促进信息的生产和交流,完善相关的法律体系与金融监管体系以便于整个金融体系服务功能的充分发挥。
The finance is the core of the modern economy. All countrys and regions focus on constructing financial system since a steady and efficient financial system is the base of a national economy's healthy development.
As the basis of the analytical financial system, financial intermediaries and financial market were viewed as an aggregation concluding both depositors and investors by Arrow-Debreu general equilibrium model. Financial systems merely serve as an intermedium passively between the final borrowers and lenders proceeding to trade. The localization on analysis frame of orthodox financial theories cannot but neglects characters of both financial market and financial intermediaries, and it then impossibly embody the effect of institution circumstance. At the same time, it also make person cannot have cognizance of that financial development itself is to increase, and both financial development and economic growth have the common reason. For this, the article tries to break through the before research pattern and investigates endogenous evolution of financial system from microcosmic mechanism.
The article takes two kinds of financial systems'function comparison as point of departure and has discussed various approaches and differences between two kinds of financial systems when they handle with risk sharing and management, information processing and corporate governance.The fact drives us to a conclusion:diferent financial system has each superiority in aspects of liquidity supply, post supervision, risk sharing, information processing, financing for advanced technology and accelerate corporate governance.
Secondly, this paper regards the formulation of financial system as a course of both division of labor and specialization. In this course, financial innovation is essential. Because of transaction cost, asymmetric information and uncertainty existing in the activities of financial transaction, financial systems in real world are created endogenously, which can be viewed as substitutes of immediate financial contract market in ideal one. Only one nation possesses institution terms that can result in the creation of efficient economic organization, could hold an expansion of the financial system and achieve a great economic growth. Because the type and size of the market scale, trade efficiency and trade expenses of diferent countries are diferent, it not only changes the structure and form offinancial or ganization, but also brings on the diferent modes of evolution in division of labor of financial systems, which is the reason of forming diferent financial system types and financial institution arrangements. However, once one country has possessed fundamental institution terms of financial development and economic growth, it will get higher finance-deepen level and economic development level. Financial development has a possibility of multiple equilibrium. For the developing countries and transition ones, which lack of institution terms needed in financial development, imitating the financial system of the developed countries can not bring on anticipated financial development and economic growth. Just as formulation of the financial system is the result of entrepreneurs' seeking, financial institution arrangements are also looked for by the supervisor, while this kind of endogenous financial institution arrangement is most efficient.
Thirdly, the financial system of our country has experienced the process from the bank-oriended system to the descend position of bank on quantity since reform opening, but the likeness of this kind of quantity does not mean our financial system is following the inside regulation of the evolution, on the contrary, the variety of allotment structure on national income, the establishment of transition path on reform, government's powerful control to the economy and the low currency level etc made our financial system walk up another evolution path. Not only in the formation of the bank system with extend but also the boom of stock market, government has a predominant function.In financial system of predominanced government, the initial function of the financial market and the bank system lie in providing finance support for the state economy, resulting in the severe functional shortcoming and structural inconsistency of our financial system, so the low efficiency of financial system.We have to adjust the finance structure to change the evolution path of our financial system and make the function of the financial system work well.
China's developping the capital market actively is obviously necessary at present, but the market is not an abstract concept, it involves the financial tools, trade system, financing institution and investor protecting etc. We can't in brief lie to stand opposite in the market and finance, the development of market doesn't reject the development of financial intermediate.It is the competition relation lying to see from the static state angle or the relation of spiral development seeing from the dynamic state angle on the contrary. Diferent finance systems progress gradually by sticking to gether but not superseding.There lationship between market and bank is to depend on for existence incompetition.The emphasis for one finance system's reform will not be simply improving bank intermediation or financial market, it is vital to synthesize the superiotities, enhance construction of basic financial infrastructure, promote the production and exchange of information and to perfect relative law system and financial supervision system to make the finance systems work more effectual.
引文
[1]Abramowitz, M. (1956) Resource and output trends in the United States since 1870. The American Economic Review 45,5-23.
[2]Aguiar, M., G. Gopinath. (2006) Defaultable debt, interest rates, and current account, Journal of International Economics,69,64-83.
[3]Adrian, Tobias and Arturo Estrella (2008)Monetary Tightening Cycles and the Predictability of Economic Activity. Economics Letters 99,260-264.
[4]Allen, Franklin, and Douglas Gale (1999a) Comparing Financial Systems. Cambridge, MA:MIT Press,1999. ——(1999b) Diversity of Opinion and the Financing of New Technologies. Journal of Financial Intermediation 8, pp.68-89.
[5]Allen, F. & Santomero, A. M. (1997) The theory of financial intermediation. Journal of Banking and Finance 21,1461-1486.
[6]Allen, F and E. Carletti (2006) Credit Risk Transfer and Contagion. Journal of Monetary Economics 53,89-111.
[7]Allen, F and E. Carletti (2007) Mark-to-Market Accounting and Liquidity Pricing. Journal of Accounting and Economics, forthcoming.
[8]Allen, F. and D. Gale (2007) Understanding Financial Crises, Clarendon Lecture Series in Finance, Oxford:Oxford University Press.
[9]Allen, F. & Gale, D. (1988) Optimal security design, Review of Financial Studies 1,229-263.
[10]Allen, F. & Gale, D. (1991) Arbitrage, short sales and financial innovation. Econometrica 59,1041-1068
[11]Allen, F. & Gale, D. (1994) Financial Innovation and Risk Sharing, MIT Press.
[12]Allen, F. & Gale, D. (1998) Optimal Banking Crises. Journal of Finance, Vol.53, issue 4, pp.1245-1284.
[13]Allen, F. & Gale, D. (2004) Financial Intermediaries and Markets. Econometrica 72,1023-1061.
[14]Anderson, R. W. & Harris, C. J. (1986) A model of innovation with application to new financial products. Oxford Economic Papers 38,203-218.
[15]Araujo, Luis & Minetti, Raoul. (2007) Financial Intermediaries as Markets for Firm Assets. The Economic Journal, Vol.117(523),1380-1402(23)
[16]Arellano, C. (2006) Default risk and income fluctuations in emerging economies,2006, mimeo.
[17]Arrow, K. j. & Debreu, G. (1964) Existence of equilibrium for a competitive economy. Econometrica 22,265-290.
[18]Ashcraft, Adam. (2005) Are Banks Really Special? New Evidence from the FDIC Induced Failure of Healthy Banks. American Economic Review 95,1712-1730.
[19]Ashcraft, Adam. (2006) New Evidence on the Lending Channel. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 38,751-776.
[20]Beck, Thorsten, Aali Demirgue-Kunt and Ross Levine (2000) A New Databese on Financial Development and Structure. World Bank Economic Review, 2000. ——(2002) Law and Finance Why Does Legal Origin Matter. World Bank Working Paper.
[21]Beck, Thorsten, and Ross Levin (2000a) New Firm Formation and Industry Growth:Does Having a Market-Basedor Bank-Based System Matter, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper xxx. ——(2000b) Stock Markets, Banks and Growth:Correlation or Causality. World Bank mimeo. ——(2000c) External Dependence and Industry Growth:Does Financial Structure Matter. World Bank mimeo, February.
[22]Beck, Thorsten, Asli Demirguc-Kunt, Ross Levine and Vojislav Maksimovic(2000)Financial Structure and Economic Development:Firm, Industry, and Country Evidence Mimeo, June 14,2000.
[23]Beck, Thorsten, Asli Demirguc-Kunt, and Vojislav Maksimovic (2002) Financial and Legal Constrainsts to Firm: Does Size Matter, working paper, World Bank, http://econ. worldbank.org/resource.
[24]Bekaert, G., Harvey, C.R. and Lumsdaine, R.L.2002, Growth Volatility and Equity Market Liberalization, NBER Working Paper. Wp10560.
[25]Bekaert, Geert, and Campbell R. Harvey,1995, Time-Varying World Market Integration, Journal of Finance 50,403-444.
[26]Bekaert, G. and C. R. Harvey,2000, Foreign Speculators and Emerging Equity Markets, Journal of Finance Vol.55, Issue 2,565-614. Or available:NBER Working Paper wp6312,1997.
[27]Bekaert, G, Harvey, C. R., and Lundblad, C.,2001a, Does Financial Liberalization Spur Growth? NBER Working paper 8245.
[28]Bekaert, G., Harvey, C. R., and Lundblad, C.,2001b, Emerging Equity Markets and Economic Development, NBER Working Paper wp7763.
[29]Benczur, P. (2005) Information revelation, liquidity shocks, the volatility and the level of bond spreads. Economica,72(285),95 - 119
[30]Ben-Horim, M. & Silber, W. L. (1977) Financial innovation-a linear programming approach. Journal of Banking and Finance 1,277-296
[31]Benston, G J. & Smith, C. W. (1976) A transaction cost approach to the theory of financial intermediation. Journal of Finance, Vol 31:215-231.
[32]Bisin, A. (1998) General Equilibrium with Endogenously Incomplete Financial Markets. Journal of Economics Theory 82,19-45.
[33]Black, S., and P. Strahan (2000) Enterprenrurship and the Structure of the Banking Industry. World Bank Working Papers wps2146.
[34]Black, Stanley W., and Mathias Moersch (Eds.,1998) Competition and Convergence in Financial Markets:The German and Anglo-American Models, New York:North-Holland Press.
[35]Bonaccorsi Di Patti, E., and G. Dell'Ariccia (2000) Bank Competition and Firm Creation. Mimeo.
[36]Boness A J. (1964) Elements of a theory of stock option value Journal of Political Economy 72,163-175.
[37]Boyd, J., S. Kwak, and B. Smith (2005) The Real Output Losses Associated with Modern Banking Crises. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 37,977-999.
[38]Brunnermeier, Markus and Lasse Pedersen. (2007) Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity, forthcoming Review of Financial Studies.
[39]C. A. Yartey. (2007) Well-developed Financial Intermediary Sector Promotes Stock Market Development:Evidence from Africa. Journal of Emerging Market Finance,6(3):269-289.
[40]Cass, D. & Citanna, A. (1998) Pareto improving financial innovation in incomplete markets. Economic Theory 11,467-494.
[41]Caballero, R. J., Krishnamurthy, A. (2003) Excessive dollar debt:Financial development and underinsurance. Journal of Finance,58(2),867-893.
[42]Cecchetti, Stephen G. (1999) Legal Structure, Financial Structure, and the Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism Prepared for the conference "The Monetary Transmission Process:Recent Developments and Lessons for Europe", held in Frankfurt, Germany, on March 26-27,1999, and in Deutsche Bundesbank ed.:The Monetary Transmission Process:Recent Developments and Lessons For Europe, London:Macmillan.
[43]Cetorelli, Nocla, and Michele Gambera (1999) Banking Market Structure, Financial Dependence and Growth:International Evidence from Industry Data, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Working Papers Series Research Department (WP-99-8).
[44]Cetorelli, Nicola, and Pietto F. Peretto (2000) Oligopoly Banking and Capital Accumulation, Federal Reserve, Bank of Chicago Working Paper, December 2000.
[45]Chen, Z. (1995) Financial innovation and arbitrage pricing in frictional economies, Journal of Economic Theory 65,117-135.
[46]Chui, M. and P. Gai (2005) Private Sector Involvement and International Financial Crises, Oxford and New York:Oxford University Press.
[47]Corkish, Holland & Vila. (1997) The determinants of successful financial innovation:an empirical analysis of future innovation on LIFFE. Bank of England-Working Paper Series Year 1997 (no.58-73)
[38]Coffee, John C. Jr. (2001) The Rise of Dispersed Ownership:The Roles of Law and State in the Seperation of Ownership and Control, The Yale Law Journal, Vol.111, No.1, Octorber.
[49]Colley, Thomas F., and Vincenzo Quadrini(2001)Financial Markets and Firm Dynamics, American Economic Review, Vol.91, No.5, December.
[50]Dasgupta, A. (2004) Financial Contagion through Capital Connections:A Model of the Origin and Spread of Bank Panics, Journal of the European Economic Association 6,1049-1084.
[51]Crockett, Andrew. (2003) International Standard Setting in Financial Supervision Institute of Economic Affairs Lecture, Cass Business School, London,5 February.
[52]Dasgupta, A., Prat, A. (2005) Asset price dynamics when traders care about reputation, DP 5372, CEPR, London.
[53]Dasgupta, A., Prat, A. (2006) Financial equilibrium with career concerns. Theoretical Economics,1,67-93.
[54]Debreu, G. (1959) Theory of Value, An Axiomatic Analysis of Economic Equilibrium, New York:Wiley.
[55]Demage, G. and Laroque, G. (1995b) Private information and the design of securities. Journal of Economic Theory 65,233-257.
[56]Denison, E.F. (1974) Accounting for United States Economic Growth; 1929-1969. Brookings Institution.
[57]Desai, M. & Low, M. (1987) Measuring the opportunity for product innovation. In M. de Cecco (ed.), Changing Money:Financial Innovation in Developed Countries. Basil Blackwell, Oxford, pp.112-140.
[58]Diamond, D. jand R. Rajan (2006) Money in a Theory of Banking, American Economic Review 96,30-53.
[59]Douglas W. Diamond &Raghurm G. Rajan, Liquidity Risk, Liquity Creation and Financial Fragility:A Theory of Banking. Journal of Politic Economy, 2001, vol.109.No.2.287-327
[60]Dudley, William. (2006) Panel discussion, NBER conference on Monetary Policy and Asset Prices, May 5-6,2006.
http://www.nber.org/books_in_progress/assetprices/dudley6-28-06.pdf
[61]Dufey, G.& Giddy,1. (1981) The evolution of instruments and techniques in international financial markets. Series No.35A, SUERF
[62]Duffie, D. & Rahi, R. (1995) Financial market innovation and security design:an introduction. Journal of Economic Theory 65,1-42.
[63]Duffie, D. & Jackson, O. (1989)Optimal innovation of futures contracts. Review of Financial Studies 2,275-296.
[64]Durham, J. Benson,2000, Emerging Stock Market Liberalisation, Total Returns, and Real Effects:Some Sensitivity Analyses, QEH Working Paper NO.51.
[65]Elul, R. (1995) Welfare effects of financial innovation in incomplete markets economics with several consumption goods. Journal of Economics Theory 65,43-78.
[66]Fama, E. (1965) The behavior of stock market prices. Journal of Business, January.
[67]Fama, E. (1980) Banking in the theory of finance. Journal of Monetary Economics (6),39-57.
[68]Friedman M.and Schwartz A.J.A Monetary History of the United States:1867-1960, Princeton University Press.1963.
[69]Freixas & Rochet. (1997) Microeconomics of Banking, MIT Press (FR).
[70]Fry M. Money, Interest and Banking in Economic Development. Johns Hopkins University Press,1995.
[71]Fuchs-Schundeln, Nicola, and Funke, Norbert,2001, Stock Market Liberalizations:Financial and Macroeconomic Implications, IMF Working Paper, wp01193.
[72]Furfine, C. (2003) The Interbank Market During a Crisis, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 35,111-128.
[73]Galindo, Arturo, Alejandro Micco and Guillermo Ordonez 1,2002, Financial Liberalization and Growth:Empirical Evidence, Inter-American Development Bank, May.
[74]Gary Hatfield. (2008) Why do Financial Intermediaries Take ALM Risks? An Examination of the ALM Practices of Pensions, Life Insurers, and Banks. Investment Symposium. March 2008
[75]Goldsmith R W. Financial Structure and Development. New Haven:Yale University Press,1969.
[76]Goldsmith, R.W.1969. Financial Structure and Development. New Haven: Yale University Press.
[77]Goldstein, I. and A. Pauzner (2005) Demand-Deposit Contracts and the Probability of Bank Runs Journal of Finance 60,1293-1327.
[78]Gorton, G. & Rosen, R. (1995) Banks and Derivatives. NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1995,299-339
[79]Gorton, G. and A. Winton (2003) Financial Intermediation in G. Constantinides, M. Harris, and R. Stulz, eds., Handbook of the Economics of Finance, Volume 1A, Chapter 8, North Holland, Amsterdam,431-552.
[80]Greenbaum, S, & Heywood, C. (1973) Secular change in the financial services industry. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 5,571-603.
[81]Grossman, G. M. and Shapiro, C. (1988) Dynamic R & D competition. Economic journal 91,372-387
[82]Gumbel, A. (2005) Trading on short-term information. Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics,161,428-462.
[83]Gunther, W. & Siems, F. (1995) The Likelihood and Extent of Bank Participation in Derivative Activities. Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
[84]Hara, C.(1995) On the commission revenue maximization. In a general-equilibrium model of asset creation. Journal of Economic Theory 65, 258-298.
[85]Henry, Peter Blair,2000a, Do stock market liberalizations cause investment booms? Journal of Financial Economics 58,301-334.
[86]Henry, Peter Blair,2000b, Stock Market Liberalization, Economic Reform, and Emerging market Equity Prices, The Journal of Finance, VOL. LV, NO.2, April.
[87]Honohan, P. and L. Laeven (2005) Systemic Financial Crises: Containment and Resolution, Cambridge, UK:Cambridge University Press.
[88]Hundman, K. (1999) An analysis of the determinants of financial derivative used by Commercial Banks. The Park Place Economist. April,83-92.
[89]Iyer, I. and J.Peydro-Alcalde (2006) Interbank Contagion:Evidence from Real Transactions, Working paper, European Central Bank.
[90]Jacque, L & Vaaler, P. (2001) Financial Innovations and the Welfare of Nations:How Cross-Border Transfers of Financial Innovations Nurture Emerging Capital Markets. Kluwer Academic Publishers.
[91]Jain-Chandra, Sonali, (2002) The Impact of Stock Market Liberalization on Liquidity and Efficiency in Emerging Stock Markets, A Columbia University Working Paper.
[92]James Peck & Karl Shell, (2003) Equilibrium Bank Runs. Journal of Political Economy, Vol.111(1),103-123
[93]Jason & Taylor. (1994) The Structure of Scotland's Drug Agencies, Addiction Research, Vol.1, No.1,69-75.
[94]J. Biswas. (2008) Does Finance Lead to Economic Growth? An Empirical Assessment of 12 Asian Economies Margin:The Journal of Applied Economic Research,2(3):229-246.
[95]Johnson, M. & Eberhard E. (1989) A Proposed Model for New Service Development. Journal of Services Marketing 3,25-34.
[96]Johnson, L. T. (1987) Theoretical approaches to financial innovation. Discussion Papers no.51, School of Accounting, Banking and Economics, Research Papers In Banking and Finance, University of Wales, Bangor.
[97]Kane, E. J. (1980) Accelerating inflation, regulation and banking innovation. Issues in Bank Regulation, Summer,7-14.
[98]Kane, E. J. (1981) Accelerating inflation, technological innovation, and the decreasing effectiveness of banking regulation. Journal of Finance 36,355-367.
[99]Kane, E. J. (1983) Metamorphosis in financial-services delivery and production. In Strategic Planning for Economic and Techonlogical Change in the FSI. San Francisco:49-64.
[100]Kane, E. J. (1984a) Technological and Regulation Forces in the Developing Fusion of Financial-Services Competition. WPS 84-4, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH.
[101]Kane, E. J. (1984b) Microeconomic and macroeconomic origins of financial innovation. Chapter 1 in Financial Innovations:Their Impact on Monetary Policy and Financial Markets, The Federal Bank of St. Louis. Kluwer-Nijhoff, Boston,3-20.
[102]Kapadia, N. & Puri, M. (1995) Financial innovation under uncertainty. Paper presented at the Conference on Derivatives and Intermediation sponsored by the The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, November 1-3, Cleveland, OH.
[103]Kaminsky, Graciela L. and Reinhart, Carmen M. (1999) the Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems, The American Economic Review; Jun 1999; 89,3.
[104]Kaminsky, Graciela L. and Sergio L. Schmukler (2002) Short-Run Pain, Long-Run Gain:The Effects of Financial Liberalization, NBER Working Paper wp9787.
[105]Karolyi, G. (2003) Does International Financial Contagion Really Exist? International Finance 6,179-199.
[106]Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro, and John Moore. (2005) Liquidity and Asset Prices. International Economic Review 46,317-349.
[107]King, R.G. & Levine, R. (1993a) Finance, Entrepreneurship and Growth[J]:Theory and Evidence Journal of Monetary Economic,32.
[108]King, Robert G, Ross Levine. Finance, Entrepreneurship and Growth: Theory and Evidence.Journal of Monetary Economics.1993, (32) 513-542.
[109]King, Robert G., Ross Levine. Financial Intermediation and Economic Development. Capital Market and Financial Intermediation.New York:Cambridge University Press,1993,156-196.
[110]Kohn, Donald. (2005) Commentary:Has Financial Development Made the World Riskier? Proceedings of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Symposium at Jackson Hole,2005. http://www.kc.frb.org/publicat/sympos/2005/sym05prg.htm
[111]Kondor, P. (2007) Career concerns and dynamic arbitrage, University of Chicago, mimeo.
[112]Kovrijnykh, N., Szentes, B.(2005)Equilibrium default cycles, forthcoming, Journal of Political Economy.
[113]Krugman, Paul. (1994) The Myth of Asia's Miracle, Foreign Affairs, November/December.
[114]Leland, H. E. & Pyle, D. H. (1977) Informational asymmetries, financial structure and financial intermediation. The Journal of Finance. Vol 32, May: 372-387.
[115]Levine, R. (1996) Financial Development and Economic Growth:Views and Agenda. Working Papers - Domestic finance. Saving, financial systems, stock markets.1678, World Bank
[116]Levine, Ross and Zervos, Sara. (1998) Stock markets, Banks, and Economic Growth, The American Economic Review June 1998, VOL 88, NO.3.
[117]Levine, Ross, and Zervos, Sara. (1996) Stock Market Development and Long-Run Growth, Levin, R.1991. Stock Markets, Growth, and Tax Policy. Journal of Finance,46.
[118]Lown, Cara, and Don Morgan. (2006) The Credit Cycle and the Business Cycle:New Findings Using the Loan Officer Opinion Survey. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 38,1575-1597.
[119]Lucas, Robert, E.JR. On the mechanics of econom is development[M] Journal Monetary Economics 1998, July 22 (1):3-42
[120]Magill, M. & Quinzii, M. (1996) Theory of Incomplete Markets, Cambridge University Press.
[121]Mckinnon R. Money and Capital in Economic Development Washington, DC, Brookings Institution,1973.
[122]Miller, M. H. (1986) Financial innovation:the last twenty years and the next. Journal of Financial and Quantitaltive Analysis 21,459-471.
[123]Mckinnon, R. I. (1973) Money and Capital in Economic Development. The Brookings Institution. Washington. D. C.
[124]Merton, R. C. (1989) On the application of the continuous-time theory of finance to financial intermediation and insurance, Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance Theory 14,225-261.
[125]Merton, R. C. (1995) Financial innovation and the management and regulation of financial institutions. Journal of Banking and Finance 19,461-481.
[126]Merton, R. C & Bodie, Z. (1995) A framework for analyzing the financial system, in Crane et al., eds., The global financial system:a functional perspective. Boston. MA, Harvard Business School Press.
[127]Morris, Stephen and Hyun Song Shin. (2008) Financial Regulation in a System Context, Working Paper, Princeton University.
[128]Neumeyer, P., Perri, F. (2005)Business cycles in emerging economies:The role of interest rates. Journal of Monetary Economics,52(2),345-380.
[129]Obstfeld, Maurice. (1994) Risk-taking, Global Diversification, and Growth, The American Economic Review, December, VOL.84, NO.5.
[130]Pavlova, A. and R. Rigobon (2005) Wealth Transfers, Contagion, and Portfolio Constraints NBER Working Paper No. W11440.
[131]Podolski, T. M. (1986) Financial innovation and the Money Supply. Basil Blackwell, Oxford, New York.
[132]Remolona, E. (1992)The Recent Growth of Financial Derivative Markets Federal Reserve Bank of New York Quarterly Review 17 (Winter),28-43.
[133]Robinson, j. (1952) The generalization of the general theory. The rate of interest and other essays London:Macmillan,67-142.
[134]Rochet, J. and X. Vives (2004) Coordination Failures and the Lender of Last Resort:Was Bagehot Right after All? Journal of the European Economic Association 2,1116-1147.
[135]Santomero, A. M. (1984) Modeling the Banking Firm:A Survey. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,16,576-602.
[136]Scholtens,B. & van Wensveen, D. (2000) A Critique on the Theory of Financial Intermediation. Journal of Banking and Finance 24,1243-1251.
[137]Shaw E. Financial Deepening in Economic Development. Oxford University Press,1973.
[138]Singleton, K., Pan, J. (2006) Default and recovery Implicit in the Term Structure of Sovereign CDS Spreads, mimeo.
[139]Smith, A. D. (1992) Performance in International Financial Markets. NIESR, Cambridge University Press.
[140]Solow, R. M. (1957) Technical change and the aggregate production function. Review of Economic and Statistics 39,312-320.
[141]Stiglitz, Joseph E. (2000) Capital Market Liberalization, Economic Growth, and Instability, World Development Vol.28, No.6, pp.1075-1086.
[142]Stulz, Rene M.,1999, Globalization of Equity Markets and the Cost of Capital, NBER Working Papers, wp7021.
[143]Upper, C (2006) Contagion Due to Interbank Credit Exposures:What Do We Know, Why Do We Know It, and What Should We Know? Working paper, Bank for International Settlements.
[144]Uribe, M. ,Yue, V. Z. (2006) Country Spreads and Emerging Countries: Who Drives Whom?. Journal of International Economics,69(1),6-36.
[145]Vayanos, D. (2003) Flight to quality, flight to liquidity, and the pricing of risk, MIT,mimeo.
[146]Veronica Guerrieri (2007) Emerging Markets and Financial Intermediaries. Working paper
[147]White, J. (2000) The challenges of new electronic technologies in banking:private strategies and public policies. Performance of Financial Institutions: Efficiency, Innovation, Regulation. Edited by Patrick T. Harker, Stavros A. Zenios. Published July 2000, Cambridge University Press
[148]Wurgler, Jeffrey,1999, Financial Markets and the Allocation of Capital, Yale ICF Working Paper No.99-08.
[149]Yuan, K. (2005) Asymmetric Price Movements and Borrowing Constraints: A Rational Expectations Equilibrium Model of Crisis, Contagion, and Confusion. Journal of Finance 60,379-411
[150]爱德华·肖著.1973《经济发展中的金融深化》(中译本)[M].上海： 上海三联书店,1992.
[151]贝多广著.中国资金流动分析[M].上海：上海三联书店、上海人民出版社,1995.
[152]宾国强.实际利率、金融深化与中国的经济增长[J].经济科学,1999,(3).
[153]博迪,莫顿著.1995.金融学(中译本)[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,2000.
[154]博迪(Bodie, Z.).金融体系的功能观点[M].载廖理,汪韧,陈璐.探求智慧之旅：哈佛、麻省理工著名经济学家访谈录.北京：北京大学出版社,2000.
[155]曹桂全.中国经济转型时期的地区差别与经济发展绩效[J].南开经济研究,2001,(2).
[156]陈岱孙,厉以宁.国际金融学说史[M].北京：中国金融出版社,1991.
[157]董裕平.金融：契约、结构与发展[M].北京：中国金融出版社,2003.
[158]樊纲等著.金融发展与企业改革[M].北京：经济科学出版社,2000.
[159]范恒森.金融制度学探索[M].北京：中国金融出版社,2000.
[160]葛杨,李晓蓉.西方经济学说史[M].南京：南京大学出版社,2003.
[161]何浚.上市公司治理结构的实证分析[J].经济研究,1998(5)
[162]韩廷春.金融发展与经济增长[M].北京：清华大学出版社,2002.
[163]韩国文.演化经济学视野下的金融创新[M].武汉大学出版社,2006.
[164]蒋殿春.现代金融理论[M].上海：上海人民出版社,2001.
[165]江其务.经济后转轨期的货币金融改革[M].北京：经济科学出版社,2004
[166]姜昱.中国金融深化程度：判断与分析[J].财经理论与实践,2003,(5).
[167]雷蒙德.W.戈德史密斯.金融结构与金融发展[M].上海：上海三联出版社,1994.
[168]诺斯.经济史中的结构与变迁,中译本[M].上海：上海人民出版社,1994.
[169]林毅夫,蔡昉,李周.中国经济转型时期的地区差距分析[J].经济研究,1998,(6).
[170]罗纳德·I·麦金农著.1992《经济自由化的次序》(中译本)[M].北京：中国金融出版社,1993.
[171]玛格丽特·M·布莱尔.所有权与控制：面向21世纪的公司治理探索[M].北京：中国社会科学出版社,1999.
[172]米什金.货币金融学[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,1998.
[173]彭文平,肖继辉.新金融中介理论述评[J].当代财经,2002,(2)
[174]钱国荣.风险防范需要金融创新[N].中国证券报,1997,(14)：7-25
[175]冉茂盛等.中国金融发展与经济增长的因果关系检验[J].重庆大学学报(自然科学版),2002,(3)
[176]生柳荣.当代金融研究[M].北京：中国发展出版社,1998.
[177]单俏颖.我国金融发展与经济增长关系的实证研究[J].统计与信息论坛,2003,18(6).
[178]沈坤荣,汪建.实际利率水平与中国经济增长[J].金融研究,2000,(8).
[179]世界银行1999年世界发展报告：金融体系与发展(中文译本)[M].北京：中国财政经济出版社,1999.
[180]谈儒勇.中国金融发展和经济增长关系的实证研究[J].经济研究,1999,(10).
[181]唐旭.货币资金流动与区域经济发展[C].北京：中国人民银行研究生部博士论文,1995.
[182]托马斯等著.增长的质量(中译本)[M].北京：中国财政经济出版社,2001.
[183]约瑟夫·熊彼特.经济发展理论[M].商务印书馆,1990.
[184]杨有振.金融创新与深化[M].北京：企业管理出版社,1997.
[185]杨小凯, 张永生.新兴古典经济学和超边际分析[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,2003.
[186]易纲.中国金融资产结构分析及政策含义[J].经济研究,1996,(12).
[187]易纲,林明.理解中国经济增长[J].中国社会科学,2003,(2).
[188]殷德生,肖顺喜著.体制转轨中的区域金融研究[M].北京：学林出版社,2000.
[189]余波.专业化、分工与货币演化[J].江西财经学院学报,2002,(3)
[190]王广谦著.经济发展中的金融贡献与效率[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,1997.
[191]王广谦.中国金融发展中的结构问题分析[J].金融研究,2002年第5期.
[192]王绍光,胡鞍钢著.中国：不平衡发展的政治经济学[M].北京：中国计划出版社,1999.
[193]王毅.用金融存量指标对中国金融深化进程的衡量[J].金融研究,2002,(1).
[194]希克斯(Hicks).经济史理论[M].1969年出版,中译本商务印书馆,1987.
[195]徐良平.金融与经济关系研究的功能方法：一个分析框架[J].经济发展评论,2002,(1)
[196]谢平.中国金融资产结构分析[J].经济研究,1992,(11).
[197]章和杰.中国金融制度的风险机理及改革路径研究[M].中国社会科学出版社,2004.
[198]张杰著.中国国有金融体制变迁分析[M].北京：经济科学出版社,1998.
[199]张杰.中国金融制度的结构与变迁[M].山西经济出版社,1998.
[200]张杰.中国的货币化进程、金融控制及改革困境[J].经济研究,1997,(8).
[201]张杰.经济变迁中的金融中介与国有银行[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,2003.
[202]赵志君.金融资产总量、结构与经济增长[J].管理世界,2001,(3).
[203]张震,张卫国.中国金融制度转型中的创新主体研究[J].财贸经济,2005,(2).
[204]郭竟成,姚先国.市场结构还是治理结构?——两种银行改革思路之检讨和中国实证[J].国际金融研究.2004,(2).
[205]林毅夫,章奇,刘明兴.银行业结构的国际比较与实证分析[J].中国金融学,2004,(3).
[2]Aguiar, M., G. Gopinath. (2006) Defaultable debt, interest rates, and current account, Journal of International Economics,69,64-83.
[3]Adrian, Tobias and Arturo Estrella (2008)Monetary Tightening Cycles and the Predictability of Economic Activity. Economics Letters 99,260-264.
[4]Allen, Franklin, and Douglas Gale (1999a) Comparing Financial Systems. Cambridge, MA:MIT Press,1999. ——(1999b) Diversity of Opinion and the Financing of New Technologies. Journal of Financial Intermediation 8, pp.68-89.
[5]Allen, F. & Santomero, A. M. (1997) The theory of financial intermediation. Journal of Banking and Finance 21,1461-1486.
[6]Allen, F and E. Carletti (2006) Credit Risk Transfer and Contagion. Journal of Monetary Economics 53,89-111.
[7]Allen, F and E. Carletti (2007) Mark-to-Market Accounting and Liquidity Pricing. Journal of Accounting and Economics, forthcoming.
[8]Allen, F. and D. Gale (2007) Understanding Financial Crises, Clarendon Lecture Series in Finance, Oxford:Oxford University Press.
[9]Allen, F. & Gale, D. (1988) Optimal security design, Review of Financial Studies 1,229-263.
[10]Allen, F. & Gale, D. (1991) Arbitrage, short sales and financial innovation. Econometrica 59,1041-1068
[11]Allen, F. & Gale, D. (1994) Financial Innovation and Risk Sharing, MIT Press.
[12]Allen, F. & Gale, D. (1998) Optimal Banking Crises. Journal of Finance, Vol.53, issue 4, pp.1245-1284.
[13]Allen, F. & Gale, D. (2004) Financial Intermediaries and Markets. Econometrica 72,1023-1061.
[14]Anderson, R. W. & Harris, C. J. (1986) A model of innovation with application to new financial products. Oxford Economic Papers 38,203-218.
[15]Araujo, Luis & Minetti, Raoul. (2007) Financial Intermediaries as Markets for Firm Assets. The Economic Journal, Vol.117(523),1380-1402(23)
[16]Arellano, C. (2006) Default risk and income fluctuations in emerging economies,2006, mimeo.
[17]Arrow, K. j. & Debreu, G. (1964) Existence of equilibrium for a competitive economy. Econometrica 22,265-290.
[18]Ashcraft, Adam. (2005) Are Banks Really Special? New Evidence from the FDIC Induced Failure of Healthy Banks. American Economic Review 95,1712-1730.
[19]Ashcraft, Adam. (2006) New Evidence on the Lending Channel. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 38,751-776.
[20]Beck, Thorsten, Aali Demirgue-Kunt and Ross Levine (2000) A New Databese on Financial Development and Structure. World Bank Economic Review, 2000. ——(2002) Law and Finance Why Does Legal Origin Matter. World Bank Working Paper.
[21]Beck, Thorsten, and Ross Levin (2000a) New Firm Formation and Industry Growth:Does Having a Market-Basedor Bank-Based System Matter, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper xxx. ——(2000b) Stock Markets, Banks and Growth:Correlation or Causality. World Bank mimeo. ——(2000c) External Dependence and Industry Growth:Does Financial Structure Matter. World Bank mimeo, February.
[22]Beck, Thorsten, Asli Demirguc-Kunt, Ross Levine and Vojislav Maksimovic(2000)Financial Structure and Economic Development:Firm, Industry, and Country Evidence Mimeo, June 14,2000.
[23]Beck, Thorsten, Asli Demirguc-Kunt, and Vojislav Maksimovic (2002) Financial and Legal Constrainsts to Firm: Does Size Matter, working paper, World Bank, http://econ. worldbank.org/resource.
[24]Bekaert, G., Harvey, C.R. and Lumsdaine, R.L.2002, Growth Volatility and Equity Market Liberalization, NBER Working Paper. Wp10560.
[25]Bekaert, Geert, and Campbell R. Harvey,1995, Time-Varying World Market Integration, Journal of Finance 50,403-444.
[26]Bekaert, G. and C. R. Harvey,2000, Foreign Speculators and Emerging Equity Markets, Journal of Finance Vol.55, Issue 2,565-614. Or available:NBER Working Paper wp6312,1997.
[27]Bekaert, G, Harvey, C. R., and Lundblad, C.,2001a, Does Financial Liberalization Spur Growth? NBER Working paper 8245.
[28]Bekaert, G., Harvey, C. R., and Lundblad, C.,2001b, Emerging Equity Markets and Economic Development, NBER Working Paper wp7763.
[29]Benczur, P. (2005) Information revelation, liquidity shocks, the volatility and the level of bond spreads. Economica,72(285),95 - 119
[30]Ben-Horim, M. & Silber, W. L. (1977) Financial innovation-a linear programming approach. Journal of Banking and Finance 1,277-296
[31]Benston, G J. & Smith, C. W. (1976) A transaction cost approach to the theory of financial intermediation. Journal of Finance, Vol 31:215-231.
[32]Bisin, A. (1998) General Equilibrium with Endogenously Incomplete Financial Markets. Journal of Economics Theory 82,19-45.
[33]Black, S., and P. Strahan (2000) Enterprenrurship and the Structure of the Banking Industry. World Bank Working Papers wps2146.
[34]Black, Stanley W., and Mathias Moersch (Eds.,1998) Competition and Convergence in Financial Markets:The German and Anglo-American Models, New York:North-Holland Press.
[35]Bonaccorsi Di Patti, E., and G. Dell'Ariccia (2000) Bank Competition and Firm Creation. Mimeo.
[36]Boness A J. (1964) Elements of a theory of stock option value Journal of Political Economy 72,163-175.
[37]Boyd, J., S. Kwak, and B. Smith (2005) The Real Output Losses Associated with Modern Banking Crises. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 37,977-999.
[38]Brunnermeier, Markus and Lasse Pedersen. (2007) Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity, forthcoming Review of Financial Studies.
[39]C. A. Yartey. (2007) Well-developed Financial Intermediary Sector Promotes Stock Market Development:Evidence from Africa. Journal of Emerging Market Finance,6(3):269-289.
[40]Cass, D. & Citanna, A. (1998) Pareto improving financial innovation in incomplete markets. Economic Theory 11,467-494.
[41]Caballero, R. J., Krishnamurthy, A. (2003) Excessive dollar debt:Financial development and underinsurance. Journal of Finance,58(2),867-893.
[42]Cecchetti, Stephen G. (1999) Legal Structure, Financial Structure, and the Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism Prepared for the conference "The Monetary Transmission Process:Recent Developments and Lessons for Europe", held in Frankfurt, Germany, on March 26-27,1999, and in Deutsche Bundesbank ed.:The Monetary Transmission Process:Recent Developments and Lessons For Europe, London:Macmillan.
[43]Cetorelli, Nocla, and Michele Gambera (1999) Banking Market Structure, Financial Dependence and Growth:International Evidence from Industry Data, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Working Papers Series Research Department (WP-99-8).
[44]Cetorelli, Nicola, and Pietto F. Peretto (2000) Oligopoly Banking and Capital Accumulation, Federal Reserve, Bank of Chicago Working Paper, December 2000.
[45]Chen, Z. (1995) Financial innovation and arbitrage pricing in frictional economies, Journal of Economic Theory 65,117-135.
[46]Chui, M. and P. Gai (2005) Private Sector Involvement and International Financial Crises, Oxford and New York:Oxford University Press.
[47]Corkish, Holland & Vila. (1997) The determinants of successful financial innovation:an empirical analysis of future innovation on LIFFE. Bank of England-Working Paper Series Year 1997 (no.58-73)
[38]Coffee, John C. Jr. (2001) The Rise of Dispersed Ownership:The Roles of Law and State in the Seperation of Ownership and Control, The Yale Law Journal, Vol.111, No.1, Octorber.
[49]Colley, Thomas F., and Vincenzo Quadrini(2001)Financial Markets and Firm Dynamics, American Economic Review, Vol.91, No.5, December.
[50]Dasgupta, A. (2004) Financial Contagion through Capital Connections:A Model of the Origin and Spread of Bank Panics, Journal of the European Economic Association 6,1049-1084.
[51]Crockett, Andrew. (2003) International Standard Setting in Financial Supervision Institute of Economic Affairs Lecture, Cass Business School, London,5 February.
[52]Dasgupta, A., Prat, A. (2005) Asset price dynamics when traders care about reputation, DP 5372, CEPR, London.
[53]Dasgupta, A., Prat, A. (2006) Financial equilibrium with career concerns. Theoretical Economics,1,67-93.
[54]Debreu, G. (1959) Theory of Value, An Axiomatic Analysis of Economic Equilibrium, New York:Wiley.
[55]Demage, G. and Laroque, G. (1995b) Private information and the design of securities. Journal of Economic Theory 65,233-257.
[56]Denison, E.F. (1974) Accounting for United States Economic Growth; 1929-1969. Brookings Institution.
[57]Desai, M. & Low, M. (1987) Measuring the opportunity for product innovation. In M. de Cecco (ed.), Changing Money:Financial Innovation in Developed Countries. Basil Blackwell, Oxford, pp.112-140.
[58]Diamond, D. jand R. Rajan (2006) Money in a Theory of Banking, American Economic Review 96,30-53.
[59]Douglas W. Diamond &Raghurm G. Rajan, Liquidity Risk, Liquity Creation and Financial Fragility:A Theory of Banking. Journal of Politic Economy, 2001, vol.109.No.2.287-327
[60]Dudley, William. (2006) Panel discussion, NBER conference on Monetary Policy and Asset Prices, May 5-6,2006.
http://www.nber.org/books_in_progress/assetprices/dudley6-28-06.pdf
[61]Dufey, G.& Giddy,1. (1981) The evolution of instruments and techniques in international financial markets. Series No.35A, SUERF
[62]Duffie, D. & Rahi, R. (1995) Financial market innovation and security design:an introduction. Journal of Economic Theory 65,1-42.
[63]Duffie, D. & Jackson, O. (1989)Optimal innovation of futures contracts. Review of Financial Studies 2,275-296.
[64]Durham, J. Benson,2000, Emerging Stock Market Liberalisation, Total Returns, and Real Effects:Some Sensitivity Analyses, QEH Working Paper NO.51.
[65]Elul, R. (1995) Welfare effects of financial innovation in incomplete markets economics with several consumption goods. Journal of Economics Theory 65,43-78.
[66]Fama, E. (1965) The behavior of stock market prices. Journal of Business, January.
[67]Fama, E. (1980) Banking in the theory of finance. Journal of Monetary Economics (6),39-57.
[68]Friedman M.and Schwartz A.J.A Monetary History of the United States:1867-1960, Princeton University Press.1963.
[69]Freixas & Rochet. (1997) Microeconomics of Banking, MIT Press (FR).
[70]Fry M. Money, Interest and Banking in Economic Development. Johns Hopkins University Press,1995.
[71]Fuchs-Schundeln, Nicola, and Funke, Norbert,2001, Stock Market Liberalizations:Financial and Macroeconomic Implications, IMF Working Paper, wp01193.
[72]Furfine, C. (2003) The Interbank Market During a Crisis, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 35,111-128.
[73]Galindo, Arturo, Alejandro Micco and Guillermo Ordonez 1,2002, Financial Liberalization and Growth:Empirical Evidence, Inter-American Development Bank, May.
[74]Gary Hatfield. (2008) Why do Financial Intermediaries Take ALM Risks? An Examination of the ALM Practices of Pensions, Life Insurers, and Banks. Investment Symposium. March 2008
[75]Goldsmith R W. Financial Structure and Development. New Haven:Yale University Press,1969.
[76]Goldsmith, R.W.1969. Financial Structure and Development. New Haven: Yale University Press.
[77]Goldstein, I. and A. Pauzner (2005) Demand-Deposit Contracts and the Probability of Bank Runs Journal of Finance 60,1293-1327.
[78]Gorton, G. & Rosen, R. (1995) Banks and Derivatives. NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1995,299-339
[79]Gorton, G. and A. Winton (2003) Financial Intermediation in G. Constantinides, M. Harris, and R. Stulz, eds., Handbook of the Economics of Finance, Volume 1A, Chapter 8, North Holland, Amsterdam,431-552.
[80]Greenbaum, S, & Heywood, C. (1973) Secular change in the financial services industry. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 5,571-603.
[81]Grossman, G. M. and Shapiro, C. (1988) Dynamic R & D competition. Economic journal 91,372-387
[82]Gumbel, A. (2005) Trading on short-term information. Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics,161,428-462.
[83]Gunther, W. & Siems, F. (1995) The Likelihood and Extent of Bank Participation in Derivative Activities. Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
[84]Hara, C.(1995) On the commission revenue maximization. In a general-equilibrium model of asset creation. Journal of Economic Theory 65, 258-298.
[85]Henry, Peter Blair,2000a, Do stock market liberalizations cause investment booms? Journal of Financial Economics 58,301-334.
[86]Henry, Peter Blair,2000b, Stock Market Liberalization, Economic Reform, and Emerging market Equity Prices, The Journal of Finance, VOL. LV, NO.2, April.
[87]Honohan, P. and L. Laeven (2005) Systemic Financial Crises: Containment and Resolution, Cambridge, UK:Cambridge University Press.
[88]Hundman, K. (1999) An analysis of the determinants of financial derivative used by Commercial Banks. The Park Place Economist. April,83-92.
[89]Iyer, I. and J.Peydro-Alcalde (2006) Interbank Contagion:Evidence from Real Transactions, Working paper, European Central Bank.
[90]Jacque, L & Vaaler, P. (2001) Financial Innovations and the Welfare of Nations:How Cross-Border Transfers of Financial Innovations Nurture Emerging Capital Markets. Kluwer Academic Publishers.
[91]Jain-Chandra, Sonali, (2002) The Impact of Stock Market Liberalization on Liquidity and Efficiency in Emerging Stock Markets, A Columbia University Working Paper.
[92]James Peck & Karl Shell, (2003) Equilibrium Bank Runs. Journal of Political Economy, Vol.111(1),103-123
[93]Jason & Taylor. (1994) The Structure of Scotland's Drug Agencies, Addiction Research, Vol.1, No.1,69-75.
[94]J. Biswas. (2008) Does Finance Lead to Economic Growth? An Empirical Assessment of 12 Asian Economies Margin:The Journal of Applied Economic Research,2(3):229-246.
[95]Johnson, M. & Eberhard E. (1989) A Proposed Model for New Service Development. Journal of Services Marketing 3,25-34.
[96]Johnson, L. T. (1987) Theoretical approaches to financial innovation. Discussion Papers no.51, School of Accounting, Banking and Economics, Research Papers In Banking and Finance, University of Wales, Bangor.
[97]Kane, E. J. (1980) Accelerating inflation, regulation and banking innovation. Issues in Bank Regulation, Summer,7-14.
[98]Kane, E. J. (1981) Accelerating inflation, technological innovation, and the decreasing effectiveness of banking regulation. Journal of Finance 36,355-367.
[99]Kane, E. J. (1983) Metamorphosis in financial-services delivery and production. In Strategic Planning for Economic and Techonlogical Change in the FSI. San Francisco:49-64.
[100]Kane, E. J. (1984a) Technological and Regulation Forces in the Developing Fusion of Financial-Services Competition. WPS 84-4, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH.
[101]Kane, E. J. (1984b) Microeconomic and macroeconomic origins of financial innovation. Chapter 1 in Financial Innovations:Their Impact on Monetary Policy and Financial Markets, The Federal Bank of St. Louis. Kluwer-Nijhoff, Boston,3-20.
[102]Kapadia, N. & Puri, M. (1995) Financial innovation under uncertainty. Paper presented at the Conference on Derivatives and Intermediation sponsored by the The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, November 1-3, Cleveland, OH.
[103]Kaminsky, Graciela L. and Reinhart, Carmen M. (1999) the Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems, The American Economic Review; Jun 1999; 89,3.
[104]Kaminsky, Graciela L. and Sergio L. Schmukler (2002) Short-Run Pain, Long-Run Gain:The Effects of Financial Liberalization, NBER Working Paper wp9787.
[105]Karolyi, G. (2003) Does International Financial Contagion Really Exist? International Finance 6,179-199.
[106]Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro, and John Moore. (2005) Liquidity and Asset Prices. International Economic Review 46,317-349.
[107]King, R.G. & Levine, R. (1993a) Finance, Entrepreneurship and Growth[J]:Theory and Evidence Journal of Monetary Economic,32.
[108]King, Robert G, Ross Levine. Finance, Entrepreneurship and Growth: Theory and Evidence.Journal of Monetary Economics.1993, (32) 513-542.
[109]King, Robert G., Ross Levine. Financial Intermediation and Economic Development. Capital Market and Financial Intermediation.New York:Cambridge University Press,1993,156-196.
[110]Kohn, Donald. (2005) Commentary:Has Financial Development Made the World Riskier? Proceedings of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Symposium at Jackson Hole,2005. http://www.kc.frb.org/publicat/sympos/2005/sym05prg.htm
[111]Kondor, P. (2007) Career concerns and dynamic arbitrage, University of Chicago, mimeo.
[112]Kovrijnykh, N., Szentes, B.(2005)Equilibrium default cycles, forthcoming, Journal of Political Economy.
[113]Krugman, Paul. (1994) The Myth of Asia's Miracle, Foreign Affairs, November/December.
[114]Leland, H. E. & Pyle, D. H. (1977) Informational asymmetries, financial structure and financial intermediation. The Journal of Finance. Vol 32, May: 372-387.
[115]Levine, R. (1996) Financial Development and Economic Growth:Views and Agenda. Working Papers - Domestic finance. Saving, financial systems, stock markets.1678, World Bank
[116]Levine, Ross and Zervos, Sara. (1998) Stock markets, Banks, and Economic Growth, The American Economic Review June 1998, VOL 88, NO.3.
[117]Levine, Ross, and Zervos, Sara. (1996) Stock Market Development and Long-Run Growth, Levin, R.1991. Stock Markets, Growth, and Tax Policy. Journal of Finance,46.
[118]Lown, Cara, and Don Morgan. (2006) The Credit Cycle and the Business Cycle:New Findings Using the Loan Officer Opinion Survey. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 38,1575-1597.
[119]Lucas, Robert, E.JR. On the mechanics of econom is development[M] Journal Monetary Economics 1998, July 22 (1):3-42
[120]Magill, M. & Quinzii, M. (1996) Theory of Incomplete Markets, Cambridge University Press.
[121]Mckinnon R. Money and Capital in Economic Development Washington, DC, Brookings Institution,1973.
[122]Miller, M. H. (1986) Financial innovation:the last twenty years and the next. Journal of Financial and Quantitaltive Analysis 21,459-471.
[123]Mckinnon, R. I. (1973) Money and Capital in Economic Development. The Brookings Institution. Washington. D. C.
[124]Merton, R. C. (1989) On the application of the continuous-time theory of finance to financial intermediation and insurance, Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance Theory 14,225-261.
[125]Merton, R. C. (1995) Financial innovation and the management and regulation of financial institutions. Journal of Banking and Finance 19,461-481.
[126]Merton, R. C & Bodie, Z. (1995) A framework for analyzing the financial system, in Crane et al., eds., The global financial system:a functional perspective. Boston. MA, Harvard Business School Press.
[127]Morris, Stephen and Hyun Song Shin. (2008) Financial Regulation in a System Context, Working Paper, Princeton University.
[128]Neumeyer, P., Perri, F. (2005)Business cycles in emerging economies:The role of interest rates. Journal of Monetary Economics,52(2),345-380.
[129]Obstfeld, Maurice. (1994) Risk-taking, Global Diversification, and Growth, The American Economic Review, December, VOL.84, NO.5.
[130]Pavlova, A. and R. Rigobon (2005) Wealth Transfers, Contagion, and Portfolio Constraints NBER Working Paper No. W11440.
[131]Podolski, T. M. (1986) Financial innovation and the Money Supply. Basil Blackwell, Oxford, New York.
[132]Remolona, E. (1992)The Recent Growth of Financial Derivative Markets Federal Reserve Bank of New York Quarterly Review 17 (Winter),28-43.
[133]Robinson, j. (1952) The generalization of the general theory. The rate of interest and other essays London:Macmillan,67-142.
[134]Rochet, J. and X. Vives (2004) Coordination Failures and the Lender of Last Resort:Was Bagehot Right after All? Journal of the European Economic Association 2,1116-1147.
[135]Santomero, A. M. (1984) Modeling the Banking Firm:A Survey. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,16,576-602.
[136]Scholtens,B. & van Wensveen, D. (2000) A Critique on the Theory of Financial Intermediation. Journal of Banking and Finance 24,1243-1251.
[137]Shaw E. Financial Deepening in Economic Development. Oxford University Press,1973.
[138]Singleton, K., Pan, J. (2006) Default and recovery Implicit in the Term Structure of Sovereign CDS Spreads, mimeo.
[139]Smith, A. D. (1992) Performance in International Financial Markets. NIESR, Cambridge University Press.
[140]Solow, R. M. (1957) Technical change and the aggregate production function. Review of Economic and Statistics 39,312-320.
[141]Stiglitz, Joseph E. (2000) Capital Market Liberalization, Economic Growth, and Instability, World Development Vol.28, No.6, pp.1075-1086.
[142]Stulz, Rene M.,1999, Globalization of Equity Markets and the Cost of Capital, NBER Working Papers, wp7021.
[143]Upper, C (2006) Contagion Due to Interbank Credit Exposures:What Do We Know, Why Do We Know It, and What Should We Know? Working paper, Bank for International Settlements.
[144]Uribe, M. ,Yue, V. Z. (2006) Country Spreads and Emerging Countries: Who Drives Whom?. Journal of International Economics,69(1),6-36.
[145]Vayanos, D. (2003) Flight to quality, flight to liquidity, and the pricing of risk, MIT,mimeo.
[146]Veronica Guerrieri (2007) Emerging Markets and Financial Intermediaries. Working paper
[147]White, J. (2000) The challenges of new electronic technologies in banking:private strategies and public policies. Performance of Financial Institutions: Efficiency, Innovation, Regulation. Edited by Patrick T. Harker, Stavros A. Zenios. Published July 2000, Cambridge University Press
[148]Wurgler, Jeffrey,1999, Financial Markets and the Allocation of Capital, Yale ICF Working Paper No.99-08.
[149]Yuan, K. (2005) Asymmetric Price Movements and Borrowing Constraints: A Rational Expectations Equilibrium Model of Crisis, Contagion, and Confusion. Journal of Finance 60,379-411
[150]爱德华·肖著.1973《经济发展中的金融深化》(中译本)[M].上海： 上海三联书店,1992.
[151]贝多广著.中国资金流动分析[M].上海：上海三联书店、上海人民出版社,1995.
[152]宾国强.实际利率、金融深化与中国的经济增长[J].经济科学,1999,(3).
[153]博迪,莫顿著.1995.金融学(中译本)[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,2000.
[154]博迪(Bodie, Z.).金融体系的功能观点[M].载廖理,汪韧,陈璐.探求智慧之旅：哈佛、麻省理工著名经济学家访谈录.北京：北京大学出版社,2000.
[155]曹桂全.中国经济转型时期的地区差别与经济发展绩效[J].南开经济研究,2001,(2).
[156]陈岱孙,厉以宁.国际金融学说史[M].北京：中国金融出版社,1991.
[157]董裕平.金融：契约、结构与发展[M].北京：中国金融出版社,2003.
[158]樊纲等著.金融发展与企业改革[M].北京：经济科学出版社,2000.
[159]范恒森.金融制度学探索[M].北京：中国金融出版社,2000.
[160]葛杨,李晓蓉.西方经济学说史[M].南京：南京大学出版社,2003.
[161]何浚.上市公司治理结构的实证分析[J].经济研究,1998(5)
[162]韩廷春.金融发展与经济增长[M].北京：清华大学出版社,2002.
[163]韩国文.演化经济学视野下的金融创新[M].武汉大学出版社,2006.
[164]蒋殿春.现代金融理论[M].上海：上海人民出版社,2001.
[165]江其务.经济后转轨期的货币金融改革[M].北京：经济科学出版社,2004
[166]姜昱.中国金融深化程度：判断与分析[J].财经理论与实践,2003,(5).
[167]雷蒙德.W.戈德史密斯.金融结构与金融发展[M].上海：上海三联出版社,1994.
[168]诺斯.经济史中的结构与变迁,中译本[M].上海：上海人民出版社,1994.
[169]林毅夫,蔡昉,李周.中国经济转型时期的地区差距分析[J].经济研究,1998,(6).
[170]罗纳德·I·麦金农著.1992《经济自由化的次序》(中译本)[M].北京：中国金融出版社,1993.
[171]玛格丽特·M·布莱尔.所有权与控制：面向21世纪的公司治理探索[M].北京：中国社会科学出版社,1999.
[172]米什金.货币金融学[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,1998.
[173]彭文平,肖继辉.新金融中介理论述评[J].当代财经,2002,(2)
[174]钱国荣.风险防范需要金融创新[N].中国证券报,1997,(14)：7-25
[175]冉茂盛等.中国金融发展与经济增长的因果关系检验[J].重庆大学学报(自然科学版),2002,(3)
[176]生柳荣.当代金融研究[M].北京：中国发展出版社,1998.
[177]单俏颖.我国金融发展与经济增长关系的实证研究[J].统计与信息论坛,2003,18(6).
[178]沈坤荣,汪建.实际利率水平与中国经济增长[J].金融研究,2000,(8).
[179]世界银行1999年世界发展报告：金融体系与发展(中文译本)[M].北京：中国财政经济出版社,1999.
[180]谈儒勇.中国金融发展和经济增长关系的实证研究[J].经济研究,1999,(10).
[181]唐旭.货币资金流动与区域经济发展[C].北京：中国人民银行研究生部博士论文,1995.
[182]托马斯等著.增长的质量(中译本)[M].北京：中国财政经济出版社,2001.
[183]约瑟夫·熊彼特.经济发展理论[M].商务印书馆,1990.
[184]杨有振.金融创新与深化[M].北京：企业管理出版社,1997.
[185]杨小凯, 张永生.新兴古典经济学和超边际分析[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,2003.
[186]易纲.中国金融资产结构分析及政策含义[J].经济研究,1996,(12).
[187]易纲,林明.理解中国经济增长[J].中国社会科学,2003,(2).
[188]殷德生,肖顺喜著.体制转轨中的区域金融研究[M].北京：学林出版社,2000.
[189]余波.专业化、分工与货币演化[J].江西财经学院学报,2002,(3)
[190]王广谦著.经济发展中的金融贡献与效率[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,1997.
[191]王广谦.中国金融发展中的结构问题分析[J].金融研究,2002年第5期.
[192]王绍光,胡鞍钢著.中国：不平衡发展的政治经济学[M].北京：中国计划出版社,1999.
[193]王毅.用金融存量指标对中国金融深化进程的衡量[J].金融研究,2002,(1).
[194]希克斯(Hicks).经济史理论[M].1969年出版,中译本商务印书馆,1987.
[195]徐良平.金融与经济关系研究的功能方法：一个分析框架[J].经济发展评论,2002,(1)
[196]谢平.中国金融资产结构分析[J].经济研究,1992,(11).
[197]章和杰.中国金融制度的风险机理及改革路径研究[M].中国社会科学出版社,2004.
[198]张杰著.中国国有金融体制变迁分析[M].北京：经济科学出版社,1998.
[199]张杰.中国金融制度的结构与变迁[M].山西经济出版社,1998.
[200]张杰.中国的货币化进程、金融控制及改革困境[J].经济研究,1997,(8).
[201]张杰.经济变迁中的金融中介与国有银行[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,2003.
[202]赵志君.金融资产总量、结构与经济增长[J].管理世界,2001,(3).
[203]张震,张卫国.中国金融制度转型中的创新主体研究[J].财贸经济,2005,(2).
[204]郭竟成,姚先国.市场结构还是治理结构?——两种银行改革思路之检讨和中国实证[J].国际金融研究.2004,(2).
[205]林毅夫,章奇,刘明兴.银行业结构的国际比较与实证分析[J].中国金融学,2004,(3).