广西财政支出与居民消费关系的实证分析
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摘要
财政支出与居民消费之间的关系在经济研究领域一直都是备受关注的话题,在当下居民消费比较疲软的中国尤其如此。我国居民消费的滞后已经给宏观经济运行和发展带来了一定程度的负面影响,我国政府也从财政政策的角度采取了一系列调整措施来拉动内需,尤其是居民消费。财政政策作为政府重要的宏观调控手段之一,对拉动消费、促进经济增长有着重要的影响,而财政支出(也被称政府支出或公共支出)作为财政政策的主要杠杆,其支出的数量和结构都与地区的居民消费有着紧密的关联。“十二五”是国家进一步推进西部大开发的又一新的发展时期,作为西部经济发展中的代表性省份,广西正处于全面建设小康社会,加快建设西部经济强省的关键时期。高效合理地运用财政支出政策来完善政府公共服务体系,以刺激当地的居民消费,拉动地区性内需增长,对广西具有重要的现实意义。
从理论意义上讲,不同国家和地区在不同时期研究财政支出对居民消费需求的影响,都有不同的结果；与此同时,不同的学术派别、各知名经济学者也都针对不同前提的经济假设建立自己的理论模型,从不同角度去验证自己的经济观点。主要是乘数理论、挤出效应以及两者之间的相互作用机制。一方面,凯恩斯主义学派从乘数理论出发,认为在只考虑当期收入的情况下,财政支出与居民消费是互补关系,政府支出增加会刺激居民消费；而新古典学派则认为财政支出的增加将会通过负的财富效应和跨期替代效应对居民消费造成挤出,认为政府支出与居民消费之间存在着某种竞争性、对抗性的关系,因而政府支出对居民消费具有一定的挤出效应。
对于广西财政支出与居民消费关系的评价,不仅具有国际国内的共性,也有该地区自身的一些特点。从改革开放以来的时间序列看,通过多元线性回归模型运用最小二乘法分别对广西财政支出总量及结构与居民消费之间的关系进行计量分析,其结果表明,一方面,从财政支出总量与居民消费的关系看,广西财政支出的弹性很大,财政支出总量对促进广西居民消费具有正面影响,且广西的财政支出总量尚未达到最佳规模,还有进一步上升的空间。另一方面,从财政支出结构与居民消费的关系看,教育支出、社会保障支出与行政管理支出对促进居民消费呈正相关,而支农支出与医疗卫生支出对促进居民消费相关性不显著。
基于理论与实证的分析,综合广西财政支出在总量和结构中存在的问题,广西政府应当保持财政支出总量的稳定增长,同时注重对财政支出结构的调整和优化,提高财政支出的效率。尤其提高支援农业支出的资金运用效率,加强教育和医疗等基础设施建设,努力改善教育和医疗卫生条件,增加社会保障支出,完善社会保障制度,着力建设一个以政府为主导的多层次全方位的社会保障系统。对于行政管理支出,首选应当转换政府职能,深化机制改革,明晰行政管理的范围；其次在对行政单位的经费供给上,实行行政费支出限额管理办法,加大控制弹性支出的力度,从而促进广西居民消费。
Research in the relationship between public financial expenditure and household consumption has been drawing widely attentions, especial recent years, under the background of the recent slump household consumption in China. The lag of household consumption in China had already brought about significant negative impact to the macro economy of China. A series of adjustment measures, from the perspective of fiscal policy, were conducted to stimulate domestic demand, especially household consumption. Fiscal policy as one of the most important government macro-control means is crucial to stimulate consumption and promote economic growth. Meanwhile, fiscal spending (also called government spending or public spending) as the main levers of fiscal policy, the amount and structure of which is closely associated with the consumption of local residents.12five is a new era of promoting development of the west china. As a representation of the western province, Guangxi is in a critical period of building a harmonic society and accelerating the construction to become an economically strong western province. To properly arrange the developing of this period, the important practical significance of Guangxi should improve the public service system. In order to stimulate the consumption of local inhabitants, and then boost the regional domestic demand growth.
Speaking from the theoretical significance, different countries and regions study the impact of the financial expenditure on consumer demand at different times, they will all produce different results. At the same time, different academic factions and renowned scholars build their own theoretical model of economic assumptions for the different premise. They are multiplier theory, crowding-out effect and the interaction mechanism between the both. On the one hand, Keynesianism departure from the multiplier theory, considering only current income, it is a complementary relationship between financial expenditure and household consumption, and the increase in government spending will stimulate the consumer. On the other hand, the neoclassical think the increase in fiscal expenditure will be through the negative wealth effect and the intertemparal substitution effect caused by extrusion of the consumer, that there is some kind of competitive, adversarial relationship between government spending and consume, Thus there is crowding-out effect of government spending on the consumer.
There is not only the commonality of international and domestic, but also some of the features of the region to the evaluation of the relationship between fiscal expenditure and household consumption in Guangxi. It uses the least square method to quantitative analysis of the relationship between the total fiscal expenditure structure and consumer in Guangxi by multiple linear regression model from the time series since the reform and opening up. As a result, on one hand:form the study on the fiscal expenditure amount and consumption amount, it is concluded that the expenditure of Guangxi is dramatically elastic, which is positively correlated to the household consumption of the area. What's more, the expenditure has not yet reached an optimal scale, which suggested a growth margin. On the other hand, it is showed that education expenditure, fiscal spending on social security and state expenditure on general administration has the positive effect on household consumption, whereas financial expenditure on agriculture and medical&health spending have no obvious effect on the consumption.
Based on both theoretical and empirical analysis on the existing problems regarding the total amount as well as the structure of fiscal expenditure, it came up with several pieces of rational advices. It's believed that the total amount of government expenditure should maintain growing by the following years; meanwhile the adjusting and optimizing structure should be enhanced, Thus to improve the efficiency of fiscal expenditure. In particular to improve the efficiency of the use of funds to support agricultural expenditure; strengthen education and health infrastructure, and efforts to improve education and health conditions; increase in social security spending and improve the social security system, focus on building a government-led multi-level comprehensive social security system. For the administrative expenditure, the preferred choice is to transfer the government's function, deepen the reform of the mechanism, and clear the scope of administration; secondly, regarding the supply of funding for administration units, the limits of expenditure amount should be applied, moreover, increase efforts on controlling the flexible spending, thereby promoting the household consumption in Guangxi.
从理论意义上讲,不同国家和地区在不同时期研究财政支出对居民消费需求的影响,都有不同的结果；与此同时,不同的学术派别、各知名经济学者也都针对不同前提的经济假设建立自己的理论模型,从不同角度去验证自己的经济观点。主要是乘数理论、挤出效应以及两者之间的相互作用机制。一方面,凯恩斯主义学派从乘数理论出发,认为在只考虑当期收入的情况下,财政支出与居民消费是互补关系,政府支出增加会刺激居民消费；而新古典学派则认为财政支出的增加将会通过负的财富效应和跨期替代效应对居民消费造成挤出,认为政府支出与居民消费之间存在着某种竞争性、对抗性的关系,因而政府支出对居民消费具有一定的挤出效应。
对于广西财政支出与居民消费关系的评价,不仅具有国际国内的共性,也有该地区自身的一些特点。从改革开放以来的时间序列看,通过多元线性回归模型运用最小二乘法分别对广西财政支出总量及结构与居民消费之间的关系进行计量分析,其结果表明,一方面,从财政支出总量与居民消费的关系看,广西财政支出的弹性很大,财政支出总量对促进广西居民消费具有正面影响,且广西的财政支出总量尚未达到最佳规模,还有进一步上升的空间。另一方面,从财政支出结构与居民消费的关系看,教育支出、社会保障支出与行政管理支出对促进居民消费呈正相关,而支农支出与医疗卫生支出对促进居民消费相关性不显著。
基于理论与实证的分析,综合广西财政支出在总量和结构中存在的问题,广西政府应当保持财政支出总量的稳定增长,同时注重对财政支出结构的调整和优化,提高财政支出的效率。尤其提高支援农业支出的资金运用效率,加强教育和医疗等基础设施建设,努力改善教育和医疗卫生条件,增加社会保障支出,完善社会保障制度,着力建设一个以政府为主导的多层次全方位的社会保障系统。对于行政管理支出,首选应当转换政府职能,深化机制改革,明晰行政管理的范围；其次在对行政单位的经费供给上,实行行政费支出限额管理办法,加大控制弹性支出的力度,从而促进广西居民消费。
Research in the relationship between public financial expenditure and household consumption has been drawing widely attentions, especial recent years, under the background of the recent slump household consumption in China. The lag of household consumption in China had already brought about significant negative impact to the macro economy of China. A series of adjustment measures, from the perspective of fiscal policy, were conducted to stimulate domestic demand, especially household consumption. Fiscal policy as one of the most important government macro-control means is crucial to stimulate consumption and promote economic growth. Meanwhile, fiscal spending (also called government spending or public spending) as the main levers of fiscal policy, the amount and structure of which is closely associated with the consumption of local residents.12five is a new era of promoting development of the west china. As a representation of the western province, Guangxi is in a critical period of building a harmonic society and accelerating the construction to become an economically strong western province. To properly arrange the developing of this period, the important practical significance of Guangxi should improve the public service system. In order to stimulate the consumption of local inhabitants, and then boost the regional domestic demand growth.
Speaking from the theoretical significance, different countries and regions study the impact of the financial expenditure on consumer demand at different times, they will all produce different results. At the same time, different academic factions and renowned scholars build their own theoretical model of economic assumptions for the different premise. They are multiplier theory, crowding-out effect and the interaction mechanism between the both. On the one hand, Keynesianism departure from the multiplier theory, considering only current income, it is a complementary relationship between financial expenditure and household consumption, and the increase in government spending will stimulate the consumer. On the other hand, the neoclassical think the increase in fiscal expenditure will be through the negative wealth effect and the intertemparal substitution effect caused by extrusion of the consumer, that there is some kind of competitive, adversarial relationship between government spending and consume, Thus there is crowding-out effect of government spending on the consumer.
There is not only the commonality of international and domestic, but also some of the features of the region to the evaluation of the relationship between fiscal expenditure and household consumption in Guangxi. It uses the least square method to quantitative analysis of the relationship between the total fiscal expenditure structure and consumer in Guangxi by multiple linear regression model from the time series since the reform and opening up. As a result, on one hand:form the study on the fiscal expenditure amount and consumption amount, it is concluded that the expenditure of Guangxi is dramatically elastic, which is positively correlated to the household consumption of the area. What's more, the expenditure has not yet reached an optimal scale, which suggested a growth margin. On the other hand, it is showed that education expenditure, fiscal spending on social security and state expenditure on general administration has the positive effect on household consumption, whereas financial expenditure on agriculture and medical&health spending have no obvious effect on the consumption.
Based on both theoretical and empirical analysis on the existing problems regarding the total amount as well as the structure of fiscal expenditure, it came up with several pieces of rational advices. It's believed that the total amount of government expenditure should maintain growing by the following years; meanwhile the adjusting and optimizing structure should be enhanced, Thus to improve the efficiency of fiscal expenditure. In particular to improve the efficiency of the use of funds to support agricultural expenditure; strengthen education and health infrastructure, and efforts to improve education and health conditions; increase in social security spending and improve the social security system, focus on building a government-led multi-level comprehensive social security system. For the administrative expenditure, the preferred choice is to transfer the government's function, deepen the reform of the mechanism, and clear the scope of administration; secondly, regarding the supply of funding for administration units, the limits of expenditure amount should be applied, moreover, increase efforts on controlling the flexible spending, thereby promoting the household consumption in Guangxi.
引文
1.详见《国务院关于进一步促进广西经济社会发展的若干意见》,2009年12月.
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