FDI对中部地区产业升级的影响研究
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摘要
自“十二五规划”出台以来,国内产业转型升级步伐加快。中部六省人均GDP都已超过3000美元,中部地区已经进入工业化中期,产业面临升级。加快中部地区产业升级,促进经济快速稳定发展,对实现中部崛起尤为重要。在促进产业升级的因素中,外商直接投资(FDI)是一种有力的外部力量。随着中部对外开放水平的提高和“中部崛起”战略的提出,中部地区FDI规模迅速增加,至2010年,FDI流入量已达到全国的近四分之一,增速更是超过东部和西部。在带来机遇的同时,西方发达国家“再工业化”战略提出,使流入中部的FDI规模和质量面临挑战；独资化程度日益提高,使FDI的技术溢出受到阻隔；FDI规模增大,但行业分布极不合理；外商污染行业投资的规模不断增大,使地区资源生态利用和环境保护压力增大。这一切都意味着怎样利用FDI促进中部产业升级是一项极为重要而又复杂的课题。
本文主要研究外商直接投资对中部地区产业升级的影响,以找出引进外资方式方法或政策上的不足,从而改进策略,让其更好地服务于中部经济。本文指出要想解决好怎样利用FDI促进中部产业升级问题,关键是从自身出发,主要解决好三方面的问题：首先,增强自身吸收能力,吸引更高质量的外商直接投资,促进中部地区产业升级；其次,增加外商直接投资的溢出效应,从而提高中部地区内资企业的竞争力,这是核心；最后,合理规划,加强政策导向,提升外资对中部产业升级作用。本文共七章,第1章详细阐述了选题背景、选题意义、研究内容。第2章界定了FDI、产业升级等概念,阐述了外商直接投资理论与产业升级理论,对国内外学者的相关研究进行了归纳与评述。第3章描述了中部外资利用和产业升级现状。第4章提出了利用FDI促进产业升级的基本路径；对中部和东部吸收能力进行了测算与比较,找出了两地区的差距；研究了FDI对中部经济增长的作用,验证了FDI资本效应的存在性；研究了FDI对中部技术进步的作用,验证了FDI技术溢出效应的存在性。第5章从产业间、产业内及产业生态化三个角度对FDI与中部产业升级的关系进行了详细的研究,估计并分析了FDI对产业升级的直接和间接效应；第6章提出利用FDI促进中部产业升级的建议和对策,第7章是结论和研究展望。本文的主要研究成果如下：
1.依据结构方程模型思想,采用探索性因子分析与验证性因子分析相结合的方法建立并验证区域FDI吸收能力指标体系,对东、中、西部地区吸收能力进行测算和比较。
本文认为区域吸收能力主要体现在技术吸收能力、制度吸收能力与基础吸收能力三个方面,影响其大小的因素有15个。建立吸收能力指标体系的结构方程模型,并利用ULS方法估计后得出：当前我国各区域FDI吸收能力主要影响因素是制度和技术。经过测算发现,近些年来东中西部吸收能力都呈现提高趋势,东部吸收能力明显高于中部地区,中部与东部吸收能力的差距呈先扩大而后缩小的趋势,这与中部崛起战略的实施可能有关。但同时也发现缩小差距的主要原因是中部制度吸收能力的提高,中部和东部地区在基础吸收能力与技术吸收能力方面差距并没有缩小,反而有扩大趋势,这对高质量外资的吸引和吸收是很不利的。
2.利用协整理论思想,建立了FDI与中部经济增长的计量模型,对FDI与中部经济增长之间长期关系进行了实证研究；建立FDI与中部经济增长的VEC模型,对FDI与中部经济增长之间短期关系进行了实证研究。
本文经过实证研究发现,长期来看,FDI对中部经济增长的确具有稳定促进作用,根据格兰杰因果检验发现,FDI是中部经济增长的原因,同时中部经济增长也是FDI流量增大的原因,它们相互促进。但从短期看,FDI的变动对中部经济增长的作用会逐渐少,且有可能变成负作用。同时也发现相对外资,内资对中部经济增长的促进作用更大。由此可以判断,FDI的质量值得关注。
3.根据索罗经济增长模型,采用岭回归方法确定中部各省生产函数,并对中部地区历年技术水平进行计算；建立FDI与技术水平之间关系的面板数据模型,利用计量分析方法进行实证研究。
本文研究结果显示,1991年以来中部各地区技术水平在不断提高。FDI对中部地区技术水平的提高具有明显的促进作用,且溢出效应明显。进一步分析还发现“中部崛起”战略提出前FDI技术溢出明显,战略提出后溢出效应不明显。同时还发现“中部崛起”前财政科技拨款、对外开放水平和产业结构对中部地区技术水平的提高都有促进作用,但战略提出后产业结构对技术水平的提高具有阻碍作用,这说明中部地区产业升级已迫在眉睫了。
4.建立FDI与产业间升级关系面板数据模型,利用计量方法对FDI与产业间升级的关系进行实证研究；建立二三产业的FDI与产业间升级关系的结构方程模型,采用路径分析方法研究FDI对产业间升级的直接和间接效应。
本文经过实证研究发现,FDI规模的扩大的确促进了中部地区产业间升级。但是其主要的作用是促进了第二产业的发展,对第三产业的发展反而起到了阻碍作用,因为FDI对产业结构水平(以第二产业生产总值占GDP之比为指标)的直接效应和间接效应都为正,FDI对产业结构水平(以第三产业生产总值占GDP之比为指标)直接效应为正,间接效应却为负,且间接效应绝对值大于直接效应。独资化程度的提高对中部产业间升级具有阻碍作用,来自港澳台的外资能促进中部产业间升级,而德美日的资本却不能。简单的二三产业FDI占比的提高并不能促进中部地区产业升级。由此看来,外资的行业分布结构不合理对中部产业间升级影响很大。
5.建立FDI与产业内升级关系面板数据模型,利用计量方法分析FDI与工业及服务业产业内升级的关系；建立高技术产业和生产性服务业的FDI与产业内升级关系的结构方程模型,采用路径分析方法研究FDI对产业内升级关系的直接和间接效应。
本文从产业本身的素质提升方面探究了产业升级问题,实证研究结果显示,FDI规模的扩张阻碍了中部地区工业产业内升级,促进了服务业产业内升级,外商投资的独资化对中部工业产业内升级有明显的阻碍作用。发达国家FDI的提高对中部和东部地区工业产业内升级的确有着明显的促进作用,且东部地区作用远大于中部；同时也发现,发达国家FDI对中部地区服务业产业内升级有明显促进作用；中部地区外商高技术产业投资对中部工业产业内升级有阻碍作用,但生产性服务业的外商投资对服务业产业内升级却有着明显的促进作用,FDI对工业产业内升级和服务业产业内升级的直接效应为正,但间接作用却为负。这说明中部地区技术吸收能力急需提高。
6.建立区域产业生态化水平指标体系,利用层次分析法和变异系数法确定权重,并对中部地区产业生态化水平进行研究。
本文在产业生态化水平定义基础上确定区域产业生态化水平的影响因素主要包括产业资源生态利用、产业生态环境保护及产业经济生态发展三个方面,经过测算发现,2005年以来中部地区产业生态化水平明显提高,与东部还有一定差距,但差距明显缩小。分析发现,差距缩小的最重要的原因是近些年来中部地区环境生态保护水平提高较快。
7.建立FDI与产业生态化升级关系面板数据模型,利用计量方法对FDI与产业生态化升级的关系实证研究；建立工业中污染行业的外商投资与中部产业生态化升级关系的结构方程模型,采用路径分析方法探究了外商投资对产业生态化升级的直接和间接效应。
本文以产业生态化水平作为衡量产业生态升级的指标,实证研究发现,FDI规模的扩大阻碍了中部地区产业生态化升级,促进了东部地区产业生态化升级。FDI独资化程度的提高对中部产业生态化水平有促进作用,港澳台资本占比的提高能促进中部产业生态化升级,发达国家FDI投资占比的提高对中部和东部地区产业生态化升级都有明显的阻碍作用,污染行业投资的增加可能会阻碍中部地区产业生态化升级,但并不显著。不同污染行业外商投资对中部产业生态化升级的作用不同,采矿业外商投资对中部地区产业生态化升级的直接效应和间接效用都为负；制造业中的高污染行业外商投资直接效应为正,间接效应为负；电力、燃气及水的生产和供应业外商投资直接效应为正,间接效应为负。
Since "the12th Five-Year Plan" was implemented, domestic industries accelerate their transformation and upgrading. The per capita GDP of the six central provinces has been more than3000U.S. dollars in2010. The central region has already entered intermediate period of industrialization. The central region industry needs to be upgraded. However, it is particularly important how we can promote the speed of industrial upgrading in central region, and ensure economic development steady and fast to achieve the Rise of Central China. Among the factors that can promote industrial upgrading, FDI is a powerful external force. With the raising level of the central opening and the proposing of "the Rise of Central China" strategy, the scale of FDI increases rapidly in central region. By2010, FDI inflow of central region has reached nearly a quarter of China s, which is more than that in the eastern and western China. At the same time, the Western developed countries proposed "re-industrialization" strategy, which makes it difficult to guarantee the scale and quality of FDI in central region. With the increasing degree of wholly foreign-owned, technology spillover effect of FDI reduces; the quantity of FDI increases, but the industry distribution is extremely unreasonable; the scale of investment in pollution industries increases, but the situation has become more serious to protect resources and the environment. All this means how to use FDI to promote the central industrial upgrading is an extremely important and complex project.
This dissertation mainly studies the impacts FDI on industrial upgrading in central region, in order to find the loopholes in methods or policies of introducing FDI. By doing that, the foreign investment policy in Central China can be improved and serve the central economy better. In order to solve the problem how to use FDI to promote the central industrial upgrading, the author argues that the key is to solve the following three problems from itself. Firstly, we should improve central region absorptive capacity to attract higher-quality FDI, which can accelerate the industrial upgrading in central region. Secondly, we should increase the spillover effects of FDI, only by doing this can we enhance the competitiveness of domestic enterprises in central region, which is the core. Thirdly, use reasonable ways、means or policy to enhance the role of FDI in industrial upgrading in central region. The dissertation contains seven chapters. Chapter1elaborates the background, significance and main contents of the research. Chapter2gives the definitions of FDI and industrial upgrading respectively, and elaborates FDI theory and industrial upgrading theory. It also summarizes and reviews domestic and foreign scholars'related research. Chapter3describes the status quo of FDI utilization and industrial upgrading in central region, and summarizes the possible paths to use FDI to promote industrial upgrading in central region. Chapter4supplies a basic road to promoting industrial upgrading by using FDI, calculates and compares the absorptive capacity in the central and eastern region, finds the gap between the two regions, studies the role of FDI in the growth of central region, verifies the capital effect of FDI, studies the role of FDI in technology progress in central region. The FDI technology spillover effect in central region is verified in Chapter4. From three perspectives including the inter-industry, industry and industrial ecology, the empirical study on relationship of FDI and the central industrial upgrading is done in Chapter5. It also estimates and analyzes the direct and indirect effects of FDI on industrial upgrading of central region. The suggestions and countermeasures in raising the role of FDI in industrial upgrading in central region are proposed in Chapter6. Conclusions and research prospects are summarized in
Chapter7. Among them, Chapter4and Chapter5are the core parts of the dissertation.
The main research achievements of this dissertation are as follows:
1. Establish and validate the index system for regional FDI absorptive capacity based on the idea of structural equation model by exploratory factor analysis and confirmatory factor analysis. Calculate and compare the absorptive ability in the eastern, central and western China.
The dissertation proposes that regional absorptive capacity includes mainly the following three aspects:the technology absorptive capacity, the system absorptive capacity and the base absorptive capacity. There are15factors affecting the size of absorptive capacity. After establishing the structural equation model of index system and using ULS method to estimate that, the conclusion is drew, ie, currently, the main factors of the regional FDI absorptive capacity are system and technology. After calculating, the eastern, central and western absorptive capacity has been improving in recent years, the eastern absorptive capacity is significantly higher than that in central region. The gap between central and eastern regions was firstly expanded and then narrowed, which may be relevant to the implementation of "the Rise of Central China" strategy. But the narrowed gap mainly due to the raised system absorptive capability. The gaps in base absorptive capacity and technology absorptive capacity haven't narrowed, but there is an expansion tendency, which is very unfavorable to attract and absorb the high-quality FDI.
2. Establish econometric models that reflect the long-term relationship between FDI and the central economic growth based on cointegration theory, and the VEC model reflecting the short-term dynamic relationship between FDI and central economic growth is also set up. Do an empirical research on the relationship between FDI and the central economic growth in the long-term and short-term.
The empirical research shows that in the long run, FDI does have a stable promoting role in central economic growth. According to the Granger causality test, FDI causes central economic growth, while the central economic growth also causes FDI flow increasing. But in the short run, FDI change has less and less effect on the central economic growth, and may have negative effect. The dissertation also finds that relatively domestic investment accelerates better the central economic growth than FDI. Because of that, the quality of FDI is worth concerning.
3. According to the Solow economic growth model, the author confirms the production function of all provinces in central region by using ridge regression analysis. The technical level in central region over the years is also calculated. The panel data model of the relationship between FDI and technical level is established. Use quantitative analysis methods to do an empirical research.
The dissertation proposes that the technical level in central region has been continuously improving since1991. FDI has a significant role in promoting the technological level in central region, and the spillover effect is obvious. Further analysis also finds that spillover effect of FDI was obvious before "the Rise of Central China" strategy is put forward. After that the effect is less obvious. It also finds that the finance technology funding, and opening up can raise the technological level in central region, while the industrial structure can't. This means the industrial upgrading is around the corner in central region.
4. Establish the panel data model on the relationship between FDI and inter-industry upgrading, and do an empirical research on the relationship between FDI and industrial upgrading by the quantitative analysis methods. Establish the SEM on FDI and inter-industrial upgrading in the secondary and tertiary industries. Study the direct and indirect effects of FDI on inter-industry upgrading by path analysis.
The study shows that the expansion of FDI scale indeed promotes the inter-industry upgrading in central region. But it mainly promotes the development of the secondary industry, but hinders the development of tertiary industry. FDI has positive direct and indirect effects on the level of production structure (take the ratio of secondary industry in GDP as index), but it has positive direct and negative indirect effects on the level of the tertiary industry structure.(take the ratio of tertiary industry in GDP as index). It also finds that the absolute value of indirect effect is more obvious than that of direct effect. The wholly-owned foreign investment improvement will hinder the central inter-industry upgrading. FDI from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan can promote the central inter-industry upgrading, but FDI from Germany, Japan and the United States can't. The improvement of FDI in secondary and tertiary industries can not promote industrial upgrading in central region. Seen in this light, the unreasonable industry distribution of FDI will have a great impact on the central industrial upgrading.
5. Establish the panel data model on the relationship between FDI and industry upgrading. Analyze the relationship between FDI and the industrial and service sectors of industrial upgrading by the quantity analysis methods; establish the structural equation model on the relationship between FDI and industrial upgrading of high technology industry and productive service industry; study direct and indirect effects of FDI on industry upgrading by path analysis.
The dissertation researches the problem of industrial upgrading from perspective of the quality of the industry itself. The empirical research results show that the expansion of FDI scale hinders the central industry industrial upgrading, and promotes the service industrial upgrading. The degree of wholly-owned foreign investment has significant impediment to the central industrial upgrading. FDI from developed countries improves obviously industry industrial upgrading in the central and eastern regions, and it plays a larger role in eastern region than central region. At the same time, FDI from developed countries has a significant role in promoting the service industrial upgrading in central region; the foreign investment of high-tech industry will hinder industrial upgrading of central industry. But the foreign investment of productive service industry will promote industrial upgrading of central service industry. FDI has positive direct effects on the central industry and service industrial upgrading, but the indirect effect is negative. This shows that the technology absorptive capacity in central region needs urgently to be improved.
6. Establish the index system for the level of regional industrial ecology, and determine the weight of index by the Analytic Hierarchy Process and the coefficient of variation method, on the basis of this, study and analyze the level of industrial ecology in central region.
According to the definition of the level of industrial ecology, the dissertation proposes that factors influencing the level of regional industrial ecology include mainly the ecology use of industrial resource, industrial ecology environmental protection and ecological development of industry economy. The results of calculation show that the level of industrial ecology in central region has been significantly increasing since2005. There is still gap with the eastern region, but the gap has significantly narrowed. The analysis shows that the most important reason why the gap is narrower is the level of environmental and ecological protection in central region has been improved in recent years.
7. Establish the panel data model on relationship between FDI and industrial ecology upgrading. Have an empirical study on their relationship by measurement methods; establish the SEM for foreign investment of industrial pollution industry and the central industrial ecology upgrading. Study the direct and indirect effects of foreign investment on industrial ecology upgrading by path analysis.
The dissertation takes the level of industrial ecology as the index of industrial ecology upgrading, the study shows that the expansion of FDI scale hinders the industrial ecology upgrading in central region, but promotes it in eastern region. The increasing degree of wholly-owned foreign investment raises the level of the central industrial ecology. The improvement of the capital proportion from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan can promote the upgrading of the central industrial ecology, but one from developed countries is in the opposite direction; the increasing pollution industries'investment may hinder industrial ecology upgrading in central region, but not significantly.
In different pollution industries FDI has different role in the central industrial ecology upgrading. The direct effect and indirect effects of foreign investment in the mining industry are negative in central region. In view of industrial ecology upgrading, the direct effect of foreign investment in high pollution industries in manufacturing industry is positive; the indirect effect is negative; the direct effect of foreign investment in electricity, gas and water production and supply industry is positive, but indirect effect is negative.
本文主要研究外商直接投资对中部地区产业升级的影响,以找出引进外资方式方法或政策上的不足,从而改进策略,让其更好地服务于中部经济。本文指出要想解决好怎样利用FDI促进中部产业升级问题,关键是从自身出发,主要解决好三方面的问题：首先,增强自身吸收能力,吸引更高质量的外商直接投资,促进中部地区产业升级；其次,增加外商直接投资的溢出效应,从而提高中部地区内资企业的竞争力,这是核心；最后,合理规划,加强政策导向,提升外资对中部产业升级作用。本文共七章,第1章详细阐述了选题背景、选题意义、研究内容。第2章界定了FDI、产业升级等概念,阐述了外商直接投资理论与产业升级理论,对国内外学者的相关研究进行了归纳与评述。第3章描述了中部外资利用和产业升级现状。第4章提出了利用FDI促进产业升级的基本路径；对中部和东部吸收能力进行了测算与比较,找出了两地区的差距；研究了FDI对中部经济增长的作用,验证了FDI资本效应的存在性；研究了FDI对中部技术进步的作用,验证了FDI技术溢出效应的存在性。第5章从产业间、产业内及产业生态化三个角度对FDI与中部产业升级的关系进行了详细的研究,估计并分析了FDI对产业升级的直接和间接效应；第6章提出利用FDI促进中部产业升级的建议和对策,第7章是结论和研究展望。本文的主要研究成果如下：
1.依据结构方程模型思想,采用探索性因子分析与验证性因子分析相结合的方法建立并验证区域FDI吸收能力指标体系,对东、中、西部地区吸收能力进行测算和比较。
本文认为区域吸收能力主要体现在技术吸收能力、制度吸收能力与基础吸收能力三个方面,影响其大小的因素有15个。建立吸收能力指标体系的结构方程模型,并利用ULS方法估计后得出：当前我国各区域FDI吸收能力主要影响因素是制度和技术。经过测算发现,近些年来东中西部吸收能力都呈现提高趋势,东部吸收能力明显高于中部地区,中部与东部吸收能力的差距呈先扩大而后缩小的趋势,这与中部崛起战略的实施可能有关。但同时也发现缩小差距的主要原因是中部制度吸收能力的提高,中部和东部地区在基础吸收能力与技术吸收能力方面差距并没有缩小,反而有扩大趋势,这对高质量外资的吸引和吸收是很不利的。
2.利用协整理论思想,建立了FDI与中部经济增长的计量模型,对FDI与中部经济增长之间长期关系进行了实证研究；建立FDI与中部经济增长的VEC模型,对FDI与中部经济增长之间短期关系进行了实证研究。
本文经过实证研究发现,长期来看,FDI对中部经济增长的确具有稳定促进作用,根据格兰杰因果检验发现,FDI是中部经济增长的原因,同时中部经济增长也是FDI流量增大的原因,它们相互促进。但从短期看,FDI的变动对中部经济增长的作用会逐渐少,且有可能变成负作用。同时也发现相对外资,内资对中部经济增长的促进作用更大。由此可以判断,FDI的质量值得关注。
3.根据索罗经济增长模型,采用岭回归方法确定中部各省生产函数,并对中部地区历年技术水平进行计算；建立FDI与技术水平之间关系的面板数据模型,利用计量分析方法进行实证研究。
本文研究结果显示,1991年以来中部各地区技术水平在不断提高。FDI对中部地区技术水平的提高具有明显的促进作用,且溢出效应明显。进一步分析还发现“中部崛起”战略提出前FDI技术溢出明显,战略提出后溢出效应不明显。同时还发现“中部崛起”前财政科技拨款、对外开放水平和产业结构对中部地区技术水平的提高都有促进作用,但战略提出后产业结构对技术水平的提高具有阻碍作用,这说明中部地区产业升级已迫在眉睫了。
4.建立FDI与产业间升级关系面板数据模型,利用计量方法对FDI与产业间升级的关系进行实证研究；建立二三产业的FDI与产业间升级关系的结构方程模型,采用路径分析方法研究FDI对产业间升级的直接和间接效应。
本文经过实证研究发现,FDI规模的扩大的确促进了中部地区产业间升级。但是其主要的作用是促进了第二产业的发展,对第三产业的发展反而起到了阻碍作用,因为FDI对产业结构水平(以第二产业生产总值占GDP之比为指标)的直接效应和间接效应都为正,FDI对产业结构水平(以第三产业生产总值占GDP之比为指标)直接效应为正,间接效应却为负,且间接效应绝对值大于直接效应。独资化程度的提高对中部产业间升级具有阻碍作用,来自港澳台的外资能促进中部产业间升级,而德美日的资本却不能。简单的二三产业FDI占比的提高并不能促进中部地区产业升级。由此看来,外资的行业分布结构不合理对中部产业间升级影响很大。
5.建立FDI与产业内升级关系面板数据模型,利用计量方法分析FDI与工业及服务业产业内升级的关系；建立高技术产业和生产性服务业的FDI与产业内升级关系的结构方程模型,采用路径分析方法研究FDI对产业内升级关系的直接和间接效应。
本文从产业本身的素质提升方面探究了产业升级问题,实证研究结果显示,FDI规模的扩张阻碍了中部地区工业产业内升级,促进了服务业产业内升级,外商投资的独资化对中部工业产业内升级有明显的阻碍作用。发达国家FDI的提高对中部和东部地区工业产业内升级的确有着明显的促进作用,且东部地区作用远大于中部；同时也发现,发达国家FDI对中部地区服务业产业内升级有明显促进作用；中部地区外商高技术产业投资对中部工业产业内升级有阻碍作用,但生产性服务业的外商投资对服务业产业内升级却有着明显的促进作用,FDI对工业产业内升级和服务业产业内升级的直接效应为正,但间接作用却为负。这说明中部地区技术吸收能力急需提高。
6.建立区域产业生态化水平指标体系,利用层次分析法和变异系数法确定权重,并对中部地区产业生态化水平进行研究。
本文在产业生态化水平定义基础上确定区域产业生态化水平的影响因素主要包括产业资源生态利用、产业生态环境保护及产业经济生态发展三个方面,经过测算发现,2005年以来中部地区产业生态化水平明显提高,与东部还有一定差距,但差距明显缩小。分析发现,差距缩小的最重要的原因是近些年来中部地区环境生态保护水平提高较快。
7.建立FDI与产业生态化升级关系面板数据模型,利用计量方法对FDI与产业生态化升级的关系实证研究；建立工业中污染行业的外商投资与中部产业生态化升级关系的结构方程模型,采用路径分析方法探究了外商投资对产业生态化升级的直接和间接效应。
本文以产业生态化水平作为衡量产业生态升级的指标,实证研究发现,FDI规模的扩大阻碍了中部地区产业生态化升级,促进了东部地区产业生态化升级。FDI独资化程度的提高对中部产业生态化水平有促进作用,港澳台资本占比的提高能促进中部产业生态化升级,发达国家FDI投资占比的提高对中部和东部地区产业生态化升级都有明显的阻碍作用,污染行业投资的增加可能会阻碍中部地区产业生态化升级,但并不显著。不同污染行业外商投资对中部产业生态化升级的作用不同,采矿业外商投资对中部地区产业生态化升级的直接效应和间接效用都为负；制造业中的高污染行业外商投资直接效应为正,间接效应为负；电力、燃气及水的生产和供应业外商投资直接效应为正,间接效应为负。
Since "the12th Five-Year Plan" was implemented, domestic industries accelerate their transformation and upgrading. The per capita GDP of the six central provinces has been more than3000U.S. dollars in2010. The central region has already entered intermediate period of industrialization. The central region industry needs to be upgraded. However, it is particularly important how we can promote the speed of industrial upgrading in central region, and ensure economic development steady and fast to achieve the Rise of Central China. Among the factors that can promote industrial upgrading, FDI is a powerful external force. With the raising level of the central opening and the proposing of "the Rise of Central China" strategy, the scale of FDI increases rapidly in central region. By2010, FDI inflow of central region has reached nearly a quarter of China s, which is more than that in the eastern and western China. At the same time, the Western developed countries proposed "re-industrialization" strategy, which makes it difficult to guarantee the scale and quality of FDI in central region. With the increasing degree of wholly foreign-owned, technology spillover effect of FDI reduces; the quantity of FDI increases, but the industry distribution is extremely unreasonable; the scale of investment in pollution industries increases, but the situation has become more serious to protect resources and the environment. All this means how to use FDI to promote the central industrial upgrading is an extremely important and complex project.
This dissertation mainly studies the impacts FDI on industrial upgrading in central region, in order to find the loopholes in methods or policies of introducing FDI. By doing that, the foreign investment policy in Central China can be improved and serve the central economy better. In order to solve the problem how to use FDI to promote the central industrial upgrading, the author argues that the key is to solve the following three problems from itself. Firstly, we should improve central region absorptive capacity to attract higher-quality FDI, which can accelerate the industrial upgrading in central region. Secondly, we should increase the spillover effects of FDI, only by doing this can we enhance the competitiveness of domestic enterprises in central region, which is the core. Thirdly, use reasonable ways、means or policy to enhance the role of FDI in industrial upgrading in central region. The dissertation contains seven chapters. Chapter1elaborates the background, significance and main contents of the research. Chapter2gives the definitions of FDI and industrial upgrading respectively, and elaborates FDI theory and industrial upgrading theory. It also summarizes and reviews domestic and foreign scholars'related research. Chapter3describes the status quo of FDI utilization and industrial upgrading in central region, and summarizes the possible paths to use FDI to promote industrial upgrading in central region. Chapter4supplies a basic road to promoting industrial upgrading by using FDI, calculates and compares the absorptive capacity in the central and eastern region, finds the gap between the two regions, studies the role of FDI in the growth of central region, verifies the capital effect of FDI, studies the role of FDI in technology progress in central region. The FDI technology spillover effect in central region is verified in Chapter4. From three perspectives including the inter-industry, industry and industrial ecology, the empirical study on relationship of FDI and the central industrial upgrading is done in Chapter5. It also estimates and analyzes the direct and indirect effects of FDI on industrial upgrading of central region. The suggestions and countermeasures in raising the role of FDI in industrial upgrading in central region are proposed in Chapter6. Conclusions and research prospects are summarized in
Chapter7. Among them, Chapter4and Chapter5are the core parts of the dissertation.
The main research achievements of this dissertation are as follows:
1. Establish and validate the index system for regional FDI absorptive capacity based on the idea of structural equation model by exploratory factor analysis and confirmatory factor analysis. Calculate and compare the absorptive ability in the eastern, central and western China.
The dissertation proposes that regional absorptive capacity includes mainly the following three aspects:the technology absorptive capacity, the system absorptive capacity and the base absorptive capacity. There are15factors affecting the size of absorptive capacity. After establishing the structural equation model of index system and using ULS method to estimate that, the conclusion is drew, ie, currently, the main factors of the regional FDI absorptive capacity are system and technology. After calculating, the eastern, central and western absorptive capacity has been improving in recent years, the eastern absorptive capacity is significantly higher than that in central region. The gap between central and eastern regions was firstly expanded and then narrowed, which may be relevant to the implementation of "the Rise of Central China" strategy. But the narrowed gap mainly due to the raised system absorptive capability. The gaps in base absorptive capacity and technology absorptive capacity haven't narrowed, but there is an expansion tendency, which is very unfavorable to attract and absorb the high-quality FDI.
2. Establish econometric models that reflect the long-term relationship between FDI and the central economic growth based on cointegration theory, and the VEC model reflecting the short-term dynamic relationship between FDI and central economic growth is also set up. Do an empirical research on the relationship between FDI and the central economic growth in the long-term and short-term.
The empirical research shows that in the long run, FDI does have a stable promoting role in central economic growth. According to the Granger causality test, FDI causes central economic growth, while the central economic growth also causes FDI flow increasing. But in the short run, FDI change has less and less effect on the central economic growth, and may have negative effect. The dissertation also finds that relatively domestic investment accelerates better the central economic growth than FDI. Because of that, the quality of FDI is worth concerning.
3. According to the Solow economic growth model, the author confirms the production function of all provinces in central region by using ridge regression analysis. The technical level in central region over the years is also calculated. The panel data model of the relationship between FDI and technical level is established. Use quantitative analysis methods to do an empirical research.
The dissertation proposes that the technical level in central region has been continuously improving since1991. FDI has a significant role in promoting the technological level in central region, and the spillover effect is obvious. Further analysis also finds that spillover effect of FDI was obvious before "the Rise of Central China" strategy is put forward. After that the effect is less obvious. It also finds that the finance technology funding, and opening up can raise the technological level in central region, while the industrial structure can't. This means the industrial upgrading is around the corner in central region.
4. Establish the panel data model on the relationship between FDI and inter-industry upgrading, and do an empirical research on the relationship between FDI and industrial upgrading by the quantitative analysis methods. Establish the SEM on FDI and inter-industrial upgrading in the secondary and tertiary industries. Study the direct and indirect effects of FDI on inter-industry upgrading by path analysis.
The study shows that the expansion of FDI scale indeed promotes the inter-industry upgrading in central region. But it mainly promotes the development of the secondary industry, but hinders the development of tertiary industry. FDI has positive direct and indirect effects on the level of production structure (take the ratio of secondary industry in GDP as index), but it has positive direct and negative indirect effects on the level of the tertiary industry structure.(take the ratio of tertiary industry in GDP as index). It also finds that the absolute value of indirect effect is more obvious than that of direct effect. The wholly-owned foreign investment improvement will hinder the central inter-industry upgrading. FDI from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan can promote the central inter-industry upgrading, but FDI from Germany, Japan and the United States can't. The improvement of FDI in secondary and tertiary industries can not promote industrial upgrading in central region. Seen in this light, the unreasonable industry distribution of FDI will have a great impact on the central industrial upgrading.
5. Establish the panel data model on the relationship between FDI and industry upgrading. Analyze the relationship between FDI and the industrial and service sectors of industrial upgrading by the quantity analysis methods; establish the structural equation model on the relationship between FDI and industrial upgrading of high technology industry and productive service industry; study direct and indirect effects of FDI on industry upgrading by path analysis.
The dissertation researches the problem of industrial upgrading from perspective of the quality of the industry itself. The empirical research results show that the expansion of FDI scale hinders the central industry industrial upgrading, and promotes the service industrial upgrading. The degree of wholly-owned foreign investment has significant impediment to the central industrial upgrading. FDI from developed countries improves obviously industry industrial upgrading in the central and eastern regions, and it plays a larger role in eastern region than central region. At the same time, FDI from developed countries has a significant role in promoting the service industrial upgrading in central region; the foreign investment of high-tech industry will hinder industrial upgrading of central industry. But the foreign investment of productive service industry will promote industrial upgrading of central service industry. FDI has positive direct effects on the central industry and service industrial upgrading, but the indirect effect is negative. This shows that the technology absorptive capacity in central region needs urgently to be improved.
6. Establish the index system for the level of regional industrial ecology, and determine the weight of index by the Analytic Hierarchy Process and the coefficient of variation method, on the basis of this, study and analyze the level of industrial ecology in central region.
According to the definition of the level of industrial ecology, the dissertation proposes that factors influencing the level of regional industrial ecology include mainly the ecology use of industrial resource, industrial ecology environmental protection and ecological development of industry economy. The results of calculation show that the level of industrial ecology in central region has been significantly increasing since2005. There is still gap with the eastern region, but the gap has significantly narrowed. The analysis shows that the most important reason why the gap is narrower is the level of environmental and ecological protection in central region has been improved in recent years.
7. Establish the panel data model on relationship between FDI and industrial ecology upgrading. Have an empirical study on their relationship by measurement methods; establish the SEM for foreign investment of industrial pollution industry and the central industrial ecology upgrading. Study the direct and indirect effects of foreign investment on industrial ecology upgrading by path analysis.
The dissertation takes the level of industrial ecology as the index of industrial ecology upgrading, the study shows that the expansion of FDI scale hinders the industrial ecology upgrading in central region, but promotes it in eastern region. The increasing degree of wholly-owned foreign investment raises the level of the central industrial ecology. The improvement of the capital proportion from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan can promote the upgrading of the central industrial ecology, but one from developed countries is in the opposite direction; the increasing pollution industries'investment may hinder industrial ecology upgrading in central region, but not significantly.
In different pollution industries FDI has different role in the central industrial ecology upgrading. The direct effect and indirect effects of foreign investment in the mining industry are negative in central region. In view of industrial ecology upgrading, the direct effect of foreign investment in high pollution industries in manufacturing industry is positive; the indirect effect is negative; the direct effect of foreign investment in electricity, gas and water production and supply industry is positive, but indirect effect is negative.
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