中国货币政策选择效应研究
摘要
1984年中央银行体制确立以后,货币政策逐渐成为中国宏观经济调控的主要手段之一。根据经济发展各个阶段的不同需要和不同特点,中国人民银行不断地通过调整货币政策,确立货币政策的相关目标,选择与运用各种货币政策工具对经济运行进行适当的调控,货币政策逐渐成为了国家进行宏观调控过程中必不可少的一个重要组成部分。可以说,改革开放以来货币政策的选择与运用是中国经济持续稳定发展的重要保证之一。然而,从各个时期货币政策的具体选择来看,不同条件下货币政策的选择效应有很大差别,不同的经济发展阶段,不同的政策目标,所运用的政策工具以及货币政策发生作用的传导渠道的不同,都会产生不同的效应。不仅如此,随着中国市场经济的逐渐深化与发展,中国经济所受到的外部影响也越来越复杂多变,这就使得中国的货币政策选择面临更加复杂的局面,如何在这种复杂的局面下最大限度地提升中国货币政策选择的效应,是今后在经济发展中面临的一个重要问题。
本文在回顾并评价改革开放以来中国货币政策选择演变过程的基础上,指出影响中国货币政策选择效应发挥的主要因素。并分别从货币政策目标选择、货币政策工具选择以及货币政策传导渠道选择等几个角度,分析和评价了各个时期中国货币政策不同选择所产生的效应,并从整体上对中国货币政策的选择效应进行评价,最后提出提升中国货币政策选择效应的对策构想。文章把货币政策选择效应能否得到提升归结为货币政策各组成部分是否能做出正确的选择,同时,找到影响货币政策各组成部分选择效应发挥的主要因素,从而为更加全面科学地判断在不同条件下中国货币政策如何进行选择提供参考,也为完善中国货币政策的经济调控功能提供依据。
Monetary policy has become a main measures of China's macroeconomic control gradully after the establishiment of the central bank system in 1984. According to different demands and features of different economy develop stages, the Central Bank of China continuously controls the economic operation through monetary policy adjustment, target establishment and various means selection and applyment. The monetary policy has become an absolutely necessary part of nation's macroeconomic control. We can say that the selection and applyment of monetary policy since Reform and Opening is an important guarantee to the sustainable and stable development of Chinese economy. But, from the view of specific monetary policy seletion in different period, there is a great difference exists in the monetary policy selection effects under different conditions. Moreover, different economy development stage, different policy target, different policy means and even different transmission channel of monetary policy can generate different effects. Even more, as the gradully deepening and developing of China's market economy, the external influence to Chinese economy is becoming more complicated. All the above are making a more complicated situation which China's monetary policy selection facing. Then how to maximum the selection effcts under a complicated situation, is an important issue which economy development must face in the future.
Bases on the review and evaluation of China's monetary policy selection developing process since the Reform and Opening, the article points out the main factors which influence China's monetary policy selection effects. And also, the article analyzes and evaluates different selection effects in different period from the aspects of monetary policy targets, means and transmission channels. The article also evaluates the whole selection effects of China's monetary policy, and presents the idea of selection effects promotion. In the article, whether the above promotion can be achieved decided by whether correct selection can be made. On the other side, we try to find the main factors which affect the selection effects, so that we can provide a good condition for the selection of China's monetary policy and provide foundation for the promotion of China's monetary policy macroeconomic control.
本文在回顾并评价改革开放以来中国货币政策选择演变过程的基础上,指出影响中国货币政策选择效应发挥的主要因素。并分别从货币政策目标选择、货币政策工具选择以及货币政策传导渠道选择等几个角度,分析和评价了各个时期中国货币政策不同选择所产生的效应,并从整体上对中国货币政策的选择效应进行评价,最后提出提升中国货币政策选择效应的对策构想。文章把货币政策选择效应能否得到提升归结为货币政策各组成部分是否能做出正确的选择,同时,找到影响货币政策各组成部分选择效应发挥的主要因素,从而为更加全面科学地判断在不同条件下中国货币政策如何进行选择提供参考,也为完善中国货币政策的经济调控功能提供依据。
Monetary policy has become a main measures of China's macroeconomic control gradully after the establishiment of the central bank system in 1984. According to different demands and features of different economy develop stages, the Central Bank of China continuously controls the economic operation through monetary policy adjustment, target establishment and various means selection and applyment. The monetary policy has become an absolutely necessary part of nation's macroeconomic control. We can say that the selection and applyment of monetary policy since Reform and Opening is an important guarantee to the sustainable and stable development of Chinese economy. But, from the view of specific monetary policy seletion in different period, there is a great difference exists in the monetary policy selection effects under different conditions. Moreover, different economy development stage, different policy target, different policy means and even different transmission channel of monetary policy can generate different effects. Even more, as the gradully deepening and developing of China's market economy, the external influence to Chinese economy is becoming more complicated. All the above are making a more complicated situation which China's monetary policy selection facing. Then how to maximum the selection effcts under a complicated situation, is an important issue which economy development must face in the future.
Bases on the review and evaluation of China's monetary policy selection developing process since the Reform and Opening, the article points out the main factors which influence China's monetary policy selection effects. And also, the article analyzes and evaluates different selection effects in different period from the aspects of monetary policy targets, means and transmission channels. The article also evaluates the whole selection effects of China's monetary policy, and presents the idea of selection effects promotion. In the article, whether the above promotion can be achieved decided by whether correct selection can be made. On the other side, we try to find the main factors which affect the selection effects, so that we can provide a good condition for the selection of China's monetary policy and provide foundation for the promotion of China's monetary policy macroeconomic control.
引文
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31数据来源：中华人民共和国国家统计局,2008年中国统计年鉴,北京：中国统计出版社,2009年。
32数据来源：中华人民共和国国家统计局,2008年中国统计年鉴,北京：中国统计出版社,2009年。
34许小年：“准备金率：麦田里的稻草人”,《财经》许小年专栏,2008-04-15.
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②刘斌：《货币政策冲击的识别及我国货币政策有效性的实证分析》,2001.7,金融研究
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11以莫迪利安尼为代表的凯恩斯主义对单一规则也进行了针锋相对的批评,如货币供给量的稳定与经济稳定运行之间缺乏必然联系、单一规则难以应付重大的、难以预料的外在冲击。显然,货币主义和凯恩斯主义关于相机抉择和单一规则的争论,也是自由市场和政府干预两种经济哲学的争论。显然,两种政策规范的融合与共生已经成为现实的选择。参见莫迪利安尼：《货币主义论战》,现代国外经济学论文集[M].北京：商务印书馆,1979,32-45页
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15米尔顿·弗里德曼：《自由选择》[M].北京：商务印书馆,1982,288页
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18许健,《中国经济转轨中的货币控制》,北京,中国金融出版社,1997年。
19李春琦：中国货币政策有效性分析,上海财经大学出版社,2003。
20郑建明：中国转轨时期的货币政策有效性,中国财政经济出版社,2004。
21崔建军：中国货币政策有效性问题研究,中国金融出版社,2006。
22方阳娥：转型期中国货币政策效应研究,南京大学出版社,2008。
26陈元等：中国金融百科全书[M],北京：中国财政出版社,1994,116-118。
27 StiglitzJ.E,WeissA:CreditRationinginMarketswithImperfectInformation[J],AmericanEconomicReview, 1981.71:393-410.
28 BernankeB.S,BlinderA.S:Credit,Money,andAggregateDemand[J],AmericanEconomicReview,1988,78 (2):435-439.
29孟建华：中国货币政策的选择与发展,北京：中国金融出版社,2006.1,210-214页。
31数据来源：中华人民共和国国家统计局,2008年中国统计年鉴,北京：中国统计出版社,2009年。
32数据来源：中华人民共和国国家统计局,2008年中国统计年鉴,北京：中国统计出版社,2009年。
34许小年：“准备金率：麦田里的稻草人”,《财经》许小年专栏,2008-04-15.
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