金融政策对房地产市场影响的效应分析
摘要
房地产业作为资本密集型产业,与金融政策变化关系密切。随着我国房地产市场的发展,房地产业对金融政策的敏感度不断提高,金融政策已成为调控房地产业发展的重要工具。由于制度因素和房地产市场本身的特点,我国房地产市场总体上处于供给的结构性过剩和高房价收入比以及消费预期导致的居民有效需求能力不足的状态;商品房的高空置率和居民住房不足的矛盾。
本文通过分析房地产市场各主要参与者对金融政策的应对:在房地产开发建设市场主要分析在金融政策制定前后,房地产开发投资规模和商业银行对房地产等固定资产投资项目的金融支持力度的变化;在房地产消费市场中主要分析在政策出台前后房地产市场市场价格(主要是商品房市场价格),商品房成交量,商业银行按揭贷款等项目规模的变化。通过对比分析验证各项金融政策的实际效果,并由此寻找出对房地产市场相对有效地调整政策,为金融监管部门、开发商和购房者提供一定的决策参考,也为房地产市场体系的建设提出一些政策建议。
第一部分,介绍了本文选题的背景和意义,然后对文章的研究思路和主要内容以及研究方法进行了阐述。
第二部分,在系统研究相关国内外文献的基础上,首先从理论上分析了货币政策以及货币政策以外的其他金融政策的一般传导机制;接着分析金融政策和房地产市场的关联机制,分阶段讨论金融政策如何在房地产市场中传导,以及对房地产市场的影响。
第三部分,分析在房地产开发、销售两个前后相继、紧密联系的过程中,各市场主体是如何以自身利益为目标进行运作,以及在金融政策变化的过程中,相互间如何调整策略,最终实现相对均衡的,由此从实践的角度分析金融政策的调控效果。
第四部分,在上述定性分析的基础上,进而运用经济计量分析软件Eviews3.0对实际市场数据进行实证检验。
文章最后利用前文分析的结论,结合中国人民银行近来又新推出的一系列金融政策,对2009年我国房地产市场发展趋势作出预测,并对进一步完善我国房地产金融政策及如何增强其实效提出一点建议。
As the capital-intensive industry, it is in close relations to change with the financial policy in the real estate. With the development of real estate market of our country, the susceptibility to the financial policy of real estate is improving constantly; the financial policy has already become an important tool of adjusting and controlling the development of real estate. Then through what mechanisms and way the financial policy carries on function on the real estate market, and what its change will influence each side of the real estate market, these questions are exactly what this text will carry on research..
The first part of the article, having introduced the background and meaning of this selected works question at first, and then explained the thinking of study on article and main content and research approach.
The second part of article, on the basis of studying foreign language documents in system, firstly analyzes the general conduction mechanisms of monetary policy and other financial policies outside monetary policies; then analyses the related mechanism of the financial policy and real estate market, discusses stage by stage how the financial policy to conduct in the real estate market and to effect on real estate market. Introduces the characteristic of intermediary's goal of financial policy of our country finally, and then confirm the research variable needed while the ones that study financial policy conduct. Foreshadow positive research of the fourth part.
The third part of the article, analyses the close connection between the development and sale of real estate, how the main body of every market playing chess each other, and during the process of changing in financial policy, how is it to adjust the tactics each other, realize relative equilibrium finally, therefore analyze the regulation and control result of the financial policy in term of practicing. Analyze the main body of the real estate market include the Central Bank, the commercial bank, developer and consumer at first, then play chess to analyze real estate about the subject of participating in since investment stage and selling stage, have carried on the chess match analysis among the developer and commercial bank mainly during the course of investing in; and consume to play chess to analyze among commercial bank, developer and consumer from the demand aspect and price aspect in the selling stage of real estate.
The fourth part of the article, on the basis of the thing that above-mentioned theories are analyzed, proves to the theory to the real data through collecting. It is mainly using the method of association's whole analysis to demonstrate that how the financial policy influences the investment and price of the real estate. Eviews3.0 is carried on computational analysis.
The article combined the reality of real estate development of our country finally, put forward the financial policy of real estate of our country of perfecting and actually strengthens the suggestion of the result. Including perfect the real estate market, perfect the financial regulation and control means, perfect the security system of the house.
本文通过分析房地产市场各主要参与者对金融政策的应对:在房地产开发建设市场主要分析在金融政策制定前后,房地产开发投资规模和商业银行对房地产等固定资产投资项目的金融支持力度的变化;在房地产消费市场中主要分析在政策出台前后房地产市场市场价格(主要是商品房市场价格),商品房成交量,商业银行按揭贷款等项目规模的变化。通过对比分析验证各项金融政策的实际效果,并由此寻找出对房地产市场相对有效地调整政策,为金融监管部门、开发商和购房者提供一定的决策参考,也为房地产市场体系的建设提出一些政策建议。
第一部分,介绍了本文选题的背景和意义,然后对文章的研究思路和主要内容以及研究方法进行了阐述。
第二部分,在系统研究相关国内外文献的基础上,首先从理论上分析了货币政策以及货币政策以外的其他金融政策的一般传导机制;接着分析金融政策和房地产市场的关联机制,分阶段讨论金融政策如何在房地产市场中传导,以及对房地产市场的影响。
第三部分,分析在房地产开发、销售两个前后相继、紧密联系的过程中,各市场主体是如何以自身利益为目标进行运作,以及在金融政策变化的过程中,相互间如何调整策略,最终实现相对均衡的,由此从实践的角度分析金融政策的调控效果。
第四部分,在上述定性分析的基础上,进而运用经济计量分析软件Eviews3.0对实际市场数据进行实证检验。
文章最后利用前文分析的结论,结合中国人民银行近来又新推出的一系列金融政策,对2009年我国房地产市场发展趋势作出预测,并对进一步完善我国房地产金融政策及如何增强其实效提出一点建议。
As the capital-intensive industry, it is in close relations to change with the financial policy in the real estate. With the development of real estate market of our country, the susceptibility to the financial policy of real estate is improving constantly; the financial policy has already become an important tool of adjusting and controlling the development of real estate. Then through what mechanisms and way the financial policy carries on function on the real estate market, and what its change will influence each side of the real estate market, these questions are exactly what this text will carry on research..
The first part of the article, having introduced the background and meaning of this selected works question at first, and then explained the thinking of study on article and main content and research approach.
The second part of article, on the basis of studying foreign language documents in system, firstly analyzes the general conduction mechanisms of monetary policy and other financial policies outside monetary policies; then analyses the related mechanism of the financial policy and real estate market, discusses stage by stage how the financial policy to conduct in the real estate market and to effect on real estate market. Introduces the characteristic of intermediary's goal of financial policy of our country finally, and then confirm the research variable needed while the ones that study financial policy conduct. Foreshadow positive research of the fourth part.
The third part of the article, analyses the close connection between the development and sale of real estate, how the main body of every market playing chess each other, and during the process of changing in financial policy, how is it to adjust the tactics each other, realize relative equilibrium finally, therefore analyze the regulation and control result of the financial policy in term of practicing. Analyze the main body of the real estate market include the Central Bank, the commercial bank, developer and consumer at first, then play chess to analyze real estate about the subject of participating in since investment stage and selling stage, have carried on the chess match analysis among the developer and commercial bank mainly during the course of investing in; and consume to play chess to analyze among commercial bank, developer and consumer from the demand aspect and price aspect in the selling stage of real estate.
The fourth part of the article, on the basis of the thing that above-mentioned theories are analyzed, proves to the theory to the real data through collecting. It is mainly using the method of association's whole analysis to demonstrate that how the financial policy influences the investment and price of the real estate. Eviews3.0 is carried on computational analysis.
The article combined the reality of real estate development of our country finally, put forward the financial policy of real estate of our country of perfecting and actually strengthens the suggestion of the result. Including perfect the real estate market, perfect the financial regulation and control means, perfect the security system of the house.
引文
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[2] http://www.sina.com.cn 2007年08月17日18:05.
[3] Matteo Ianoviello, Raoul Minetti.Financial Liberalization and the Sensitivity of House Price to Monetary Policy: Theory and Evidence[J].The Manchester School,2003.71.(1):20-34.
[4] Crockett. Monetary Policy Transmission to Residential Investment[J].FRBNY Economic Policy Review,1998,8(1):139-158.
[5] Kent and Lowe.Some Thoughts on the Nature and Purpose of House Price Studies[J].Urban Studies.1997,14(1):59-71.
[6] Charles Goodhart.“Do Asset Prices Help to Predict Consunmer Price Inflation?”Supplement[J]. 2000(1):122-140.
[7] Abraham, Hendershott.Real Estate Price and Economic Cycles[J].International real estate review 1996.2(1):1-19.
[8] Stiglitz and Weiss.Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information[J].Amerrican Economic Review, 1981(7):65-71.
[9] The Procyclical Leverage Effect of Collateral Value on Bank Loans Evidencefrom the Transaction Data of Taiwan http://faculty.ccer.edu.cn/zxzeng/icrem/papers/chen- paper.pdf.
[10] Davis, Philip and Haibin Zhu.Bank lending and commercial property cycles: some cross - country evidence[R]. BIS Working Papers,2004,No 150.
[11] Gerlach, Stefan and Wensheng Peng.Bank lending and property prices in Hong Kong Journal of Banking & Finance[J].2005 (29) : 461-481.
[12] Stephen G. Cecchetti.Money, Banking, and Financial Markets[M].北京:北京大学出版社,2006年:215-217,311-324.
[13] Arcelus & Meltzer.The Development of an Effective Seconday Mortgage Market[J].the Journal of Finance,1973,volume 17,issue2.
[14] Gibson, Kareken, Bosworth.Money, credit and capital :The value of real estate investment[J].America’s Community Banker,Jul,1973,Vol,6.
[15] Kau,Keenan.Real estate Investment Yield as Correlated to the Rate Shown in Money and Capital Markets[J].Real Estate Appraiser and Analyst.1980.11:Vol.44.
[16] Muth Real Estate.Finance and Interest Rate Swaps: A Practice Primer[J].Real Estate Law Journal,1986.Vol.17.
[17] Paxson Portfolio.choice with Non-expected utility in continuous time[J].Economics Letters ,1990(1):313-317.
[18] Adrian Cooper.Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models[J].Journal of Ecocomy 2004,(1):119-147.
[19]罗龙昌.房地产企业开发投资规模分析[J].跨世纪的中国企业改革和发展理论与实践研讨会论文集,北京:北京大学出版社,1999年:46-48.
[20]徐滇庆,于宗先,王金利.泡沫经济与金融危机[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,2000年:14-16.
[21]盛松成.货币政策能否调控房地产价格[J].银行家,2003(9):30-33.
[22]尹中立.2005年是房地产拐点[J].环球财经,,2005(4):21-23.
[23]刘传哲、聂学峰.我国货币政策通过房地产投资传递的实证分析[J].统计与决策,2006(07):33-36.
[24]王晓.对我国房地产市场发展的几点建议[J].黑龙江对外经贸大学学报,2006(12):89-90.
[25]易宪容.房地产对国内金融业的依赖与影响[J].现代商业银行,2006(4):12-15.
[26]李宏瑾.房地产市场、银行信贷与经济增长——基于面板数据的经验研究[J].国际金融研究,2005(2):43-47.
[27]唐元璋.日本金融政策对房地产业的影响[J].科技创业月刊,2004(9):74-75.
[28]王文群.我国两次调控房地产市场的金融政策比较分析[J].江西财经大学学报,2003(6):45-47.
[29]周毕文,田作堂,李金林.2007年北京房地产价格走势分析[J].价格月刊,2007(5):41-42.
[30]杨建荣,孙斌艺.房地产投资的博弈分析[J].金融在线,2007(6):71-73.
[31]冉勇,蒲勇健.激励机制理论与商业银行管理[J].金融理论与实践,2004(2):12.
[32]曹旭华,田霄燕.我国房地产业就业的区域不均衡现象分析[J].商业经济与管理,2004(1):43-46.
[33]邬文康.宏观调控对房地产影响的分析[N].中国房地产报,2004年6月17日.
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