后“9/11”时代的美国对华政策（2001-2011）
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摘要
“9/11”后十年是美国安全战略发生巨大变化的十年，也是国际体系发生重大变革的十年。两场（反恐）战争和一场（金融）危机深刻改变了美国对外大战略，并重塑全球地缘政治景观。有关这十年间国际关系的研究绕不开以下历史命题：一个实力相对衰退的美国与崛起中的中国如何在变革的国际秩序中共处？
被新保守主义支配的第一任小布什政府曾把对付中国等潜在大国当作国家安全战略的首要任务，突如其来的恐怖袭击改变了美国的战略重点。随着反恐任务淡出，崛起的大国（中国）再次凸显于华盛顿的雷达屏幕之上。小布什第二任和民主党奥巴马政府反思美国专注于反恐期间的“策略失误”，认为最值得重视的就是没有有效应对崛起大国（中国）的挑战。宣布结束反恐作战之后，奥巴马政府将战略重心全面向亚太转移，“崛起的中国”被列入美国战略光谱的核心位置。
然而，今天的中美关系毕竟不同于20世纪90年代，也不同于21世纪初的“反恐时期”。从小布什到奥巴马，美国主流战略界逐渐以理性、积极的心态接纳中国崛起。仔细研究后发现，不管指导一届美国政府的外交理念以何种思潮为主，后“9/11”时代的美国对华政策始终表现出相当的连贯性与整体性，小布什的“两面下注”和奥巴马的“综合平衡”都可视为一种“务实的现实主义”，这其中既包含若干超越前人的积极思路，也未能跳脱既有大国与崛起大国之间的主要矛盾。美国今后对华政策的处理方式是把对华关系置于更广泛的地区性安全同盟、经济网络和社会纽带所构成的框架内，用更多的大国责任和国际规范制约中国的崛起。美国未来5-10年对华政策的主要趋势将同时注重软、硬两手，在包括加强亚太军事部署、主导区域经济议程、重拾价值观外交和开展软实力较量等五个方面和中国展开竞争。
后“9/11”时代，美国在经济实力和国防开支大幅收缩的同时强调在亚太地区的存在，对外安全战略依然以巩固美国全球领导权为目标。美中这对世界大国的关系令人瞩目。本文认为，西方阐释大国崛起的权力转移理论固然打开了新的冲突窗口，但不能解释中美关系的全部特征，两国完全可以通过动态的相互建构过程实现在双边、区域和全球三个体系内的共赢。目前的中美关系并不缺乏创新思维，缺的是真正意义上的战略稳定机制。作为一组特殊的、少有历史参照物的新型大国关系，现今中美关系的特点是竞争领域与合作领域都广泛而突出，结构性合作与结构性竞争并存（“复合相互依赖”和“确保相互摧毁”都是国际关系学者用来描述这一特殊关系的词汇），两国均拥有稳定和拓展双边关系的意愿，却未能建立一个包容两国利益并整合竞合关系的总体战略架构。这个架构的基本元素是战略互信、双边协调机制和国际合作机制。三项基本元素兼具且发展到一定的水准、形成稳定成熟的良性互动，就是高建制化的、理想的中美关系模式。
本文将理论分析与政策分析有机结合，把“9/11”事件发生以来美国两任总统的对华政策进行纵向梳理和横向比较，并结合这十年间区域和国际体系的权力格局变化深入探讨中美关系的互动结构，从双边、区域和全球三个层次归纳后“9/11”时代的中美新型竞合关系，指出两国关系业已突破国际权力体系中的“冲突”象限，目前正处于“共存”阶段，可以往“共赢”的方向努力。文章提出改善21世纪中美关系的建议：增强战略互信基轴的稳固性；对双方竞合交织的利益区间进行再定义；充实双边协调机制的内涵和弹性；共塑能容纳中美新型竞合关系的国际秩序体系。
在研究过程中，本文遵循外交政策理论的跨层次分析构架，通过搭建几组相互观照的理论视角，在透视美国对华政策制定与执行过程的同时，回答了后“9/11”时代美国对华战略在其对外大战略中的定位问题，并以具体案例说明两国竞合并存的21世纪大国关系有何表现、特征和趋势，点出中美关系与“9/11”后国际体系变迁存在相互建构的内在联系。在国际秩序正面临渐进式转型的今天，在美国对外战略重心再次发生历史性转移的今天，准确掌握美国外交思路和对华政策趋势，有助于我们制订行之有效的应对策略、减少误判，为中国崛起继续争取和创造良好的国际环境。
The past decade since the “9·11” is a very special period that witnessed bothenormous transformations of U.S. security strategy and fundamental changes in theinternational system. The two (anti-terrorism) wars and one (financial) crisis haveprofoundly transformed the grand strategy of U.S. for its foreign relations, and reshapedthe scenarios of global geopolitics. All the researches over international relations of thispast decade cannot be effectively conducted without taking adequate and appropriatecontemplations on this historic thesis: how could coexistence be successfully achievedbetween a declining U.S. and a rising China in a changing international order?
A proper handling of China and other potential big powers was once regarded as atop priority of U.S. national security strategy by George W. Bush administration duringits1stterm, but the sudden terrorist attack shifted the focus of U.S. grand strategy.However, China manifests itself again on the radar screen of Washington, this time as arising big power. The George W. Bush administration in its2ndterm and the Obamaadministration have become increasingly concentrated on the “tactical fault” of U.S.during the high tide of its anti-terrorism warfare, arguing that much importance shouldbe attached to their failure to effectively tackle the challenges posed by the rise of Chinaas a big power during that period, which should have been given grave concerns.Therefore, while terminating the previous stage of anti-terrorism warfare, Obamaadministration declares that it plans to make an overall shift of its strategic focus to theAsia-Pacific region. In this way,“the rising China” now lies in the center of thestrategic spectrum of U.S.
Nevertheless, current China-U.S. relation is an outcome of a long term evolution, soits present condition is not similar to that of1990s, nor does it resemble the one of the“era of anti-terrorism” at the beginning of this new century. From George W. Bush toObama, the mainstream of U.S. strategic planners guided by a rational and positivementality accept the rise of China gradually, so their China policy reflects a kind ofconsistency and entirety throughout the whole decade after the “9·11”, no matter whichschool of thought is adopted as a guiding ideology of diplomacy for these consecutive presidencies. Bush administration’s policy of “hedge against all possibilities of China”and Obama administration’s policy of “overall balance” can be both classified into thecategory of “pragmatic realism”, which contains some active and positive initiativestranscending previous considerations, but is still strongly shaped by a majorcontradiction between a rising power and a hegemonic power advocating the status quo.In order to effectively handle its relation with China in the future, U.S. might integrateits China policy with a broader framework consisting of a variety of regional securityalliances, economic networks, and social links, and attempt to check China’s rise withthe international standards and the concept of big power’s responsibility. The majorfocuses of its China policy in the next5-10years might be put on the measures tooperate a competition against China in terms of both soft and hard power, includingsuch five categories: the consolidation of its military presence in Asia-Pacific region,the dominance in the agenda-setting of Asia-Pacific economy, the restoration to valuediplomacy, and the further arrangement for the rivalry of soft power.
In the post-“9·11” era, the U.S. government once again emphasizes its presence inthe Asia-Pacific region although its defense expenditure has been largely reducedbecause of the shrinking American economy, demonstrating that it still regards theconsolidation of U.S. leadership as a leading objective of its foreign security strategy.Under such circumstances, the China-U.S. relation, a unique bilateral relation betweentwo major powers of the world, is attracting more and more attention. This dissertationargues that the western theory of power shift, which aims to explain the mechanism ofthe rise of big powers, cannot clarify all the features of China-U.S. relation in spite of itsnewly-opened windows of theoretic innovations, and that China and U.S. can jointlyconstruct a win-win pattern in the bilateral, regional, and global levels through adynamic mutual construction. Now what this bilateral relation really lacks is not someinnovative minds, but a mechanism of strategic stabilizer in the real sense. As a newtype of special big power relation to which very few historic references can be found,the China-U.S. relation is characterized by an extensive and outstanding set ofcooperative and competitive areas, as well as a rare coexistence of structuralcooperation and competition.(Scholars of international studies employ some specialterms, such as “complex interdependence” and “mutually assured destruction”, todescribe this special relation.) Both China and U.S. have strong wills to stabilize andexpand their bilateral relation, but fail to establish an overall strategic framework that isable to cover the interests of these two countries and realign their competitive relation. Theoretically speaking, the basic elements of an ideal framework for these twocountries shall include a mutual strategic trust, a mechanism of bilateral coordination,and a regime of international cooperation. Consisting of these three elements, such aframework might develop into a dynamic system of benign and mature interaction,which may evolve into a highly institutionalized and idealized model of China-U.S.relation.
Combining theoretic elaboration with policy analysis, this dissertation conducts avertical review and a horizontal comparison over the China policy of the twoconsecutive U.S. presidencies since the breaking-out of “9·11”, and explores theinteractive structure of this bilateral relation through an observation of the patternchanges of power distribution in the regional and international system during this pastdecade, with a specification over the characteristics of the new type of cooperative andcompetitive China-U.S. relation on the bilateral, regional, and global levels. The authorargues that the China-U.S. bilateral relation has broken through the “quadrant ofconflict” and evolved to the stage of “coexistence”, which deserves a joint effort toestablish a win-win pattern. For the purpose of further improving the China-U.S.relation in the21stcentury, the author offers the following advice: reinforcement onbasic shaft of the China-U.S. strategic mutual trust, re-definition of the areas of interestsoverlapped by cooperation and competition, replenishing the connotation of themechanism of bilateral coordination with a strengthening of its resilience, as well as anjoint effort to reshape the system of international order that can accommodate this newtype of complex China-U.S. relation containing both cooperation and competition.
In this dissertation, the author constructs several groups of mutually compared andcontrasted theoretic perspectives, from which the author not only surveys the wholeprocess of the making and implementation of U.S. China policy, but also clarifies thepositioning of U.S. strategy towards China in the overall framework of its grandstrategy in this post-“9·11” era. The author aims to illustrate the phenomena,characteristics, and trends of China-U.S. relation in the21stcentury, which is generallyviewed as a unique big power relation structured by both cooperation and competition,and to elaborate the mutually constructed endogenous connections between the complexChina-U.S. relation and the fluid international system after the “9·11”. As theinternational order is incrementally changing and another historic shift of the focus ofU.S. grand strategy is being conducted by Obama Administration, it is necessary to takean accurate understanding over the general mentality of U.S. for its diplomacy and the long term trends of its China policy, so that proper responding strategies, tactics, orpolicies can be made by Chinese policy makers for the purpose of creating andmaintaining a benign international environment for the rise of China.
被新保守主义支配的第一任小布什政府曾把对付中国等潜在大国当作国家安全战略的首要任务，突如其来的恐怖袭击改变了美国的战略重点。随着反恐任务淡出，崛起的大国（中国）再次凸显于华盛顿的雷达屏幕之上。小布什第二任和民主党奥巴马政府反思美国专注于反恐期间的“策略失误”，认为最值得重视的就是没有有效应对崛起大国（中国）的挑战。宣布结束反恐作战之后，奥巴马政府将战略重心全面向亚太转移，“崛起的中国”被列入美国战略光谱的核心位置。
然而，今天的中美关系毕竟不同于20世纪90年代，也不同于21世纪初的“反恐时期”。从小布什到奥巴马，美国主流战略界逐渐以理性、积极的心态接纳中国崛起。仔细研究后发现，不管指导一届美国政府的外交理念以何种思潮为主，后“9/11”时代的美国对华政策始终表现出相当的连贯性与整体性，小布什的“两面下注”和奥巴马的“综合平衡”都可视为一种“务实的现实主义”，这其中既包含若干超越前人的积极思路，也未能跳脱既有大国与崛起大国之间的主要矛盾。美国今后对华政策的处理方式是把对华关系置于更广泛的地区性安全同盟、经济网络和社会纽带所构成的框架内，用更多的大国责任和国际规范制约中国的崛起。美国未来5-10年对华政策的主要趋势将同时注重软、硬两手，在包括加强亚太军事部署、主导区域经济议程、重拾价值观外交和开展软实力较量等五个方面和中国展开竞争。
后“9/11”时代，美国在经济实力和国防开支大幅收缩的同时强调在亚太地区的存在，对外安全战略依然以巩固美国全球领导权为目标。美中这对世界大国的关系令人瞩目。本文认为，西方阐释大国崛起的权力转移理论固然打开了新的冲突窗口，但不能解释中美关系的全部特征，两国完全可以通过动态的相互建构过程实现在双边、区域和全球三个体系内的共赢。目前的中美关系并不缺乏创新思维，缺的是真正意义上的战略稳定机制。作为一组特殊的、少有历史参照物的新型大国关系，现今中美关系的特点是竞争领域与合作领域都广泛而突出，结构性合作与结构性竞争并存（“复合相互依赖”和“确保相互摧毁”都是国际关系学者用来描述这一特殊关系的词汇），两国均拥有稳定和拓展双边关系的意愿，却未能建立一个包容两国利益并整合竞合关系的总体战略架构。这个架构的基本元素是战略互信、双边协调机制和国际合作机制。三项基本元素兼具且发展到一定的水准、形成稳定成熟的良性互动，就是高建制化的、理想的中美关系模式。
本文将理论分析与政策分析有机结合，把“9/11”事件发生以来美国两任总统的对华政策进行纵向梳理和横向比较，并结合这十年间区域和国际体系的权力格局变化深入探讨中美关系的互动结构，从双边、区域和全球三个层次归纳后“9/11”时代的中美新型竞合关系，指出两国关系业已突破国际权力体系中的“冲突”象限，目前正处于“共存”阶段，可以往“共赢”的方向努力。文章提出改善21世纪中美关系的建议：增强战略互信基轴的稳固性；对双方竞合交织的利益区间进行再定义；充实双边协调机制的内涵和弹性；共塑能容纳中美新型竞合关系的国际秩序体系。
在研究过程中，本文遵循外交政策理论的跨层次分析构架，通过搭建几组相互观照的理论视角，在透视美国对华政策制定与执行过程的同时，回答了后“9/11”时代美国对华战略在其对外大战略中的定位问题，并以具体案例说明两国竞合并存的21世纪大国关系有何表现、特征和趋势，点出中美关系与“9/11”后国际体系变迁存在相互建构的内在联系。在国际秩序正面临渐进式转型的今天，在美国对外战略重心再次发生历史性转移的今天，准确掌握美国外交思路和对华政策趋势，有助于我们制订行之有效的应对策略、减少误判，为中国崛起继续争取和创造良好的国际环境。
The past decade since the “9·11” is a very special period that witnessed bothenormous transformations of U.S. security strategy and fundamental changes in theinternational system. The two (anti-terrorism) wars and one (financial) crisis haveprofoundly transformed the grand strategy of U.S. for its foreign relations, and reshapedthe scenarios of global geopolitics. All the researches over international relations of thispast decade cannot be effectively conducted without taking adequate and appropriatecontemplations on this historic thesis: how could coexistence be successfully achievedbetween a declining U.S. and a rising China in a changing international order?
A proper handling of China and other potential big powers was once regarded as atop priority of U.S. national security strategy by George W. Bush administration duringits1stterm, but the sudden terrorist attack shifted the focus of U.S. grand strategy.However, China manifests itself again on the radar screen of Washington, this time as arising big power. The George W. Bush administration in its2ndterm and the Obamaadministration have become increasingly concentrated on the “tactical fault” of U.S.during the high tide of its anti-terrorism warfare, arguing that much importance shouldbe attached to their failure to effectively tackle the challenges posed by the rise of Chinaas a big power during that period, which should have been given grave concerns.Therefore, while terminating the previous stage of anti-terrorism warfare, Obamaadministration declares that it plans to make an overall shift of its strategic focus to theAsia-Pacific region. In this way,“the rising China” now lies in the center of thestrategic spectrum of U.S.
Nevertheless, current China-U.S. relation is an outcome of a long term evolution, soits present condition is not similar to that of1990s, nor does it resemble the one of the“era of anti-terrorism” at the beginning of this new century. From George W. Bush toObama, the mainstream of U.S. strategic planners guided by a rational and positivementality accept the rise of China gradually, so their China policy reflects a kind ofconsistency and entirety throughout the whole decade after the “9·11”, no matter whichschool of thought is adopted as a guiding ideology of diplomacy for these consecutive presidencies. Bush administration’s policy of “hedge against all possibilities of China”and Obama administration’s policy of “overall balance” can be both classified into thecategory of “pragmatic realism”, which contains some active and positive initiativestranscending previous considerations, but is still strongly shaped by a majorcontradiction between a rising power and a hegemonic power advocating the status quo.In order to effectively handle its relation with China in the future, U.S. might integrateits China policy with a broader framework consisting of a variety of regional securityalliances, economic networks, and social links, and attempt to check China’s rise withthe international standards and the concept of big power’s responsibility. The majorfocuses of its China policy in the next5-10years might be put on the measures tooperate a competition against China in terms of both soft and hard power, includingsuch five categories: the consolidation of its military presence in Asia-Pacific region,the dominance in the agenda-setting of Asia-Pacific economy, the restoration to valuediplomacy, and the further arrangement for the rivalry of soft power.
In the post-“9·11” era, the U.S. government once again emphasizes its presence inthe Asia-Pacific region although its defense expenditure has been largely reducedbecause of the shrinking American economy, demonstrating that it still regards theconsolidation of U.S. leadership as a leading objective of its foreign security strategy.Under such circumstances, the China-U.S. relation, a unique bilateral relation betweentwo major powers of the world, is attracting more and more attention. This dissertationargues that the western theory of power shift, which aims to explain the mechanism ofthe rise of big powers, cannot clarify all the features of China-U.S. relation in spite of itsnewly-opened windows of theoretic innovations, and that China and U.S. can jointlyconstruct a win-win pattern in the bilateral, regional, and global levels through adynamic mutual construction. Now what this bilateral relation really lacks is not someinnovative minds, but a mechanism of strategic stabilizer in the real sense. As a newtype of special big power relation to which very few historic references can be found,the China-U.S. relation is characterized by an extensive and outstanding set ofcooperative and competitive areas, as well as a rare coexistence of structuralcooperation and competition.(Scholars of international studies employ some specialterms, such as “complex interdependence” and “mutually assured destruction”, todescribe this special relation.) Both China and U.S. have strong wills to stabilize andexpand their bilateral relation, but fail to establish an overall strategic framework that isable to cover the interests of these two countries and realign their competitive relation. Theoretically speaking, the basic elements of an ideal framework for these twocountries shall include a mutual strategic trust, a mechanism of bilateral coordination,and a regime of international cooperation. Consisting of these three elements, such aframework might develop into a dynamic system of benign and mature interaction,which may evolve into a highly institutionalized and idealized model of China-U.S.relation.
Combining theoretic elaboration with policy analysis, this dissertation conducts avertical review and a horizontal comparison over the China policy of the twoconsecutive U.S. presidencies since the breaking-out of “9·11”, and explores theinteractive structure of this bilateral relation through an observation of the patternchanges of power distribution in the regional and international system during this pastdecade, with a specification over the characteristics of the new type of cooperative andcompetitive China-U.S. relation on the bilateral, regional, and global levels. The authorargues that the China-U.S. bilateral relation has broken through the “quadrant ofconflict” and evolved to the stage of “coexistence”, which deserves a joint effort toestablish a win-win pattern. For the purpose of further improving the China-U.S.relation in the21stcentury, the author offers the following advice: reinforcement onbasic shaft of the China-U.S. strategic mutual trust, re-definition of the areas of interestsoverlapped by cooperation and competition, replenishing the connotation of themechanism of bilateral coordination with a strengthening of its resilience, as well as anjoint effort to reshape the system of international order that can accommodate this newtype of complex China-U.S. relation containing both cooperation and competition.
In this dissertation, the author constructs several groups of mutually compared andcontrasted theoretic perspectives, from which the author not only surveys the wholeprocess of the making and implementation of U.S. China policy, but also clarifies thepositioning of U.S. strategy towards China in the overall framework of its grandstrategy in this post-“9·11” era. The author aims to illustrate the phenomena,characteristics, and trends of China-U.S. relation in the21stcentury, which is generallyviewed as a unique big power relation structured by both cooperation and competition,and to elaborate the mutually constructed endogenous connections between the complexChina-U.S. relation and the fluid international system after the “9·11”. As theinternational order is incrementally changing and another historic shift of the focus ofU.S. grand strategy is being conducted by Obama Administration, it is necessary to takean accurate understanding over the general mentality of U.S. for its diplomacy and the long term trends of its China policy, so that proper responding strategies, tactics, orpolicies can be made by Chinese policy makers for the purpose of creating andmaintaining a benign international environment for the rise of China.
引文
①David Shambaugh,“China EngagesAsia: Reshaping the Regional Order”, International Security, Vol.29，No.3,(Winter2004/2005), p.99.
①Stephen Brooks and William Wohlforth,“American Primacy in Perspective”, Foreign Affairs, Vol.81, No.4(July/August,2002), pp.20-33.的争论”，《当代亚太》2011年第1期，第94-96页。
①Fareed Zakaria,“The Future of American Power: How America Can Survive the Rise of the Rest?” Foreign Affairs,Vol.87, No.3(May/June2008).持“美国衰弱论”的还有戴维·梅森的《美国世界的终结》，中译本于2009年由上海辞书出版社出版。
②Joseph S. Nye, Jr., The Paradox of American Power: Why the World’s Only Superpower Can’t Go It Alone (NewYork: Oxford University Press,2002); Soft Power: The Means to Success in World Politics (New York: Public Affairs,2004); The Powers to Lead (NewYork: Oxford University Press,2008); The Future of Power (NewYork: PublicAffairs,2011).
③讨论如何维系美国优势地位的有：Michael Cox,“Is the United States in Decline Again?” International Affairs,Vol.83, No.4,2007, pp.643-653; Robert Lieber,“Persistent Primacy and the Future of theAmerican Era”,AmericanPolitical ScienceAssociation Annual Meeting Paper,2007; Robert Singh,“The Exceptional Empire:Why the UnitedStates Will not DeclineAgain?” International Politics, Vol.45, No.5,2008, pp.571-593; etc.
④Joseph S. Nye, Jr., The Future of Power, pp.231-233.
⑤David Lague,“Coming to Terms with China’sAscent”, The International Herald Tribune, November8,2005.
⑥Michael Elliott,“The Chinese Century”, Time, January11,2007.(http://www.time.com/time/printout/0,8816,1576831,00.html.)
⑦Cover:What's Next, Who’s Next: China, Newsweek, December23,2007.(http://www.newscom.com/cgi-bin/prnh/20071223/NYSU001.)
③Lyle J. Goldstein and Andrew Erickson (eds.),“China’s Nuclear Force Modernization”, Naval War CollegeNewport Papers, No.22,2005; Drew Thompson,“Think Again: China's Military”, Foreign Policy, March/April2010;Roger Cliff (et al.), Entering the Dragon's Lair: Chinese Anti-access Strategies and Their Implications for the UnitedStates (RAND Corporation,2007); Roger Cliff, Anti-Access Measures in ChineseDefenseStrategy (RANDCorporation,2011); Eric V. Larson (et al.), Assuring Access in Key Strategic Regions: Toward a Long-Term Strategy
(RAND Corporation,2004); Stephen J. Flanagan and Michael E. Marti (eds.), The People’s Liberation Army andChina in Transition (Washington, D.C.: National Defense University Press,2003), etc.
④Susan L. Shirk, China Fragile Superpower: How China's Internal Politics Could Derail Its Peaceful Rise (Oxford:Oxford University Press,2007).
⑤David M. Lampton, The Three Faces of Chinese Power: Might, Money, and Minds (Berkeley: University ofCalifornia Press,2007).
⑥Oded Shenkar,“The Chinese Century:The Rising Chinese Economy and Its Impact on the Global Economy”, inThe Balance of Power, andYour Job (NJ:Wharton School Publishing,2005); Mark Roden,“US-China Relations inthe Contemporary Era:An International Political Economy Perspective”, Politics, Vol.23, Issue3(September2003),pp.192-200.
⑧Jean-Philippe Béja,“The Fly in the Ointment? Chinese Dissent and US-China Relations”, Pacific Review, August2003.
①Robert G. Sutter, China’s Rise: Implications for U.S. Leadership in Asia (Washington, D.C.:The East-West Center,2006);“China’s Rise inAsia—Are US Interests in Jeopardy?” American Asian Review, Vol.21, Issue2(Summer2003), pp.1-22.
②Robert W. Radtke,“China’s ‘Peaceful Rise’Overshadowing US Influence inAsia?” Christian Science Monitor,December8,2003, Vol.96, Issue9, p.9; David Shambaugh,“China Engages Asia”, International Security, Vol.29,No.3(Winter2004/05), pp.70-91; etc.
③Alastair Iain Johnston,“Is China a St atus Quo Power?” International Security, Vol.27, No.4(Spring2003). pp.5-56; Denny Roy,“Rising China and US Interests: Inevitable VS. Contingent Hazards”, Orbis, Winter2003.
④David C. Kang, China Rising: Peace, Power, and Order in East Asia (Columbia: Columbia University Press,2007).
⑤Evan S. Medeiros (et al),“The Responses of U. S.Allies and Security Partners in EastAsia to China’s Rise”,(http://www. rand.org/pubs/monographs/MG736/.); Michael Swaine,Alan Romberg, Douglas H. Paal,“U.S. PolicyToward Taiwan, Time for Change?”(http://www.carnegieendowment.org/events/?fa=eventDetai&lid=1108&zoom_highlight=Taiwan.); etc.
⑥参见：Stephen Fidler andAndrew Batson,“Beijing Exercises Its Global Leverage”, Wall Street Journal,April6,2009; Jing-dong Yuan,“China GetsAssertive as US Ties Grow”, Asia Times,April7,2009;Alan Wheatley,“AChinathat Says ‘No’Casts Economic Shadows”, Reuters, January18,2010; John Pomfret,“China’s Strident Tone RaisesConcerns among Western Governments”, The Washington Post, January31,2010; Robert J. Samuelson,“The DangerBehind China’s ‘Me First’Worldview”, The Washington Post, February15,2010; David Shambaugh,“The ChineseTiger Shows Its Claws”, Financial Times, February17,2010; Andrew Small,“Dealing with AMore Assertive China”,February18,2010.(http://www.forbes.com); Rana Foroohar and Melinda Liu,“It’s China’s World, We’re Just Livingin It”, Newsweek, March12,2010; John Pomfret,“Newly Powerful China Defies Western Nations with Remarks”,The Washington Post, March15,2010.
①William H. Overholt, Asia, America, and the Transformation of Geopolitics (NewYork: Cambridge UniversityPress,2008), pp. xxxvii-xxxix.
②Chika Yamamoto,“The US Response to China's Multilateral Approach Toward East Asia”, Journal of US-ChinaPublic Administration, Vol.8, Issue8(August2011), pp.890-905.
③Alastair Iain Johnston, Social State: China in International Institutions,1980-2000(Princeton: PrincetonUniversity Press,2008).
④John J. Mearsheimer, The Tragedy of Great Power (W. W. Norton&Company,2001);“China’s Unpeaceful Rise”,Current History, Vol.105, No.690(April2006).
⑤G.. John Ikenberry, Liberal Order and Imperial Ambition (Cambridge: Polity Press,2006);“The Rise of China andthe Future of the West”, Foreign Affairs, Vol.87, Issue1(Jan/Feb2008).
⑥Richard N. Haass,“China: Don’t Isolate, Integrate”, Newsweek, November29,2008.(http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2008/11/28/china-don-t-isolate-integrate.html.)
⑦Nina Hachigian, Winny Chen and Christopher Beddor,“China’s New Engagement in the International System”,Center for American Progress, November2009.
①G.. John Ikenberry and Michael Mastaduno (eds.), International Relations Theory and the Asia-Pacific (NewYork:Columbia University Press,2003); Kevin J. Cooney and Yoichiro Sato (eds.), The Rise of China and InternationalSecurity: America and Asia Respond (New York: Routledge,2008); Lyle J. Goldstein,“Resetting the US-ChinaSecurity Relationship”, Survival, Vol.53, No.2(February-March2011).
②Dan Blumenthal,“Sea Change in Pacific”, The American, March25,2009; Malou Innocent,“China: Peace Partneror Warmonger?” The Cato Institute, February27,2009; etc.
③Robert D. Kaplan,“China’s Two-Ocean Strategy”, in Abraham Denmark and Nirav Patel (eds.),“China’sArrival:AStrategic Framework for a Global Relationship”, Center for a NewAmerican Security, September2009.
⑥Charles A. Kupchan (et al), Power in Transition: The Peaceful Change of International Order (Tokyo: UnitedNation University Press,2001).
⑦Vlado Vivoda,“China Challenges Global Capitalism”, Australian Journal of International Affairs, Vol.63, Issue1(March2009).
pp.5-36;“Culture and International Society”, International Relations, Vol.86, No.1,2010, pp.1-25.
①朱峰，罗伯特·罗斯：《中国崛起：理论与政策的视角》，上海：上海人民出版社，2008年版。
②较有影响的译著有：[美]约翰·米尔斯海默：《大国政治的悲剧》，王义桅、唐小松译，上海：上海人民出版社，2003年版；[美]亨利·基辛格：《大外交》，顾淑馨、林添译，海南：海南出版社，2006年版；[美]保罗·肯尼迪：《大国的兴衰：1500-2000年的经济变迁与军事冲突》，陈景彪等译，北京：国际文化出版公司，2006年版；[美]兹比格纽·布热津斯基：《大棋局：美国的首要地位及其地缘战略》，中国国际问题研究所译，上海：上海世纪出版集团，2007年版；[美]布鲁斯·琼斯等：《权力与责任：构建跨国威胁时代的国际秩序》，秦亚青等译，北京：世界知识出版社，2009年版，等等。
③Kenneth N. Waltz, Man, the state, and War: A Theoretical Analysis (NewYork: Columbia University Press,1959).
④James A. Caporaso,“Across the Great Divide: Integrating Compatative and International Politics”, InternationalStudies Quarterly, Vol.41, No.4(December1997), p.564.
①主要成果有：Ronald Rogowski, Commerce and Coalitoons: How Trade Affects Domestic Poltical Alignments
(Princeton: Princeton University Press,1989; JeffryA. Frieden, Debt, Development and Democracy: Modern PolticalEconomy and Lation America,1865-1985((Princeton: Princeton University Press,1991); David A. Lake,“The StatesandAmerican Trade Strategy in Pre-Hegemonic Era”, International Organization, Vol.42, No.1(Winter1988), pp.33-58; Michael Mastanduno.“Trade as a Strategic Weapon:American andAlliance Export Control Policy in theEarly Postwar Period”, International Organization, Vol.42, No.1(Winter1988). pp.121-150.
②以跨层次分析为特色的研究成果包括：Robert O. Keohane, Joseph S. Nye, and Stanley Hoffmann (eds.), Afterthe Cold War: International Institutions and State Strategies in Europe,1989-1991(Cambridge, Mass.: HarvardUniversity Press,1993); Robert O. Keohane and Helen Milner (eds.), Internationalization and Domestic Politics
(Cambridge: Cambridge University Press,1996), etc.
③1998年，美国学者吉登·罗斯（Gideon Rose）发表“新古典现实主义和对外政策理论”一文，对相关研究成果进行归纳总结，首次提出“新古典现实主义”（Neoclassical Realism）说法，并为学界接受。Gideon Rose,“Neoclassical Realism and Theories of Foreign Policy”, World Politics, Vol.51, No.1(October1998).
⑤Fareed Zakaria, From Wealth to Power: the Unusual Origins of America’s World Role (Princeton, N.J: PrincetonUniversity Press,1998.), pp.93,127,133-146.
⑥Thomas J. Christensen, Useful Adversaries Grand Strategy, Domestic Mobilisation, and Sino-American Conflict:1947-1958(New Jersey, Princton: Princton University Press,1996), pp.32-76.
①Randall L. Scweller, Unanswered Threats Political Constraints on the Balance of Power (Princton, N. J.: PrinctonUniversity Press,2006), pp.4-8.
②Steven E. Lobell, Norrin M. Ripsman and JefferyW. Taliaferro (eds.), Neoclassical Realism, the State, and ForeignPolicy (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press,2009.)
③这方面的文献有：唐小松，“外交政策理论构建的新发展：新古典现实主义流派评介”，《国际论坛》，2000年第4期，第45-49页；王公龙，“新古典现实主义理论的贡献与缺失”，《国际论坛》，2006年第4期，第36-41页；刘丰，“新古典现实主义的发展及前景”，《国际政治科学》，2007年第3期，第155-168页；陈小鼎，“国际关系研究层次的上升与回落”，《世界经济与政治》，2008年第7期，第48-62页；宋伟，“从国际政治理论到外交政策理论”，《外交评论》，2009年第3期，第25-47页；刘丰、左希迎，“新古典现实主义”一个独立的研究纲领？”《外交评论》，2009年第4期，第127-137页；李巍，“从体系层次到单元层次：国内政治与新古典现实主义”，《外交评论》，2009年第5期，第134-150页；董青岭，“质疑新古典现实主义：建构性现实主义的路径？”《外交评论》，2009年第6期，第132-142页；刘若楠，“新古典现实主义的进展与困境”，《国际政治科学》，2010年第2期，第135-146页；等等。
④吴其胜，“国际关系中的跨层次研究”，《外交评论》，2008年第2期，第60-75页。
⑤郑端耀，“国际关系新古典现实主义理论”，《问题与研究》（台北），2005年第1期，第115-140页。
⑥宋学文，“层次分析对国际关系研究的重要性及模型建构”，《问题与研究》（台北），2008年第4期，第167-199页。
①熊彼特：《资本主义、社会主义与民主》，北京：商务印书馆，1999年版，第46页。
②海尔布隆纳：《马克思主义：赞成和反对》，北京：中国社会科学院情报研究所，1982年版，第1页。
③李滨，“什么是马克思主义国际关系理论?”《世界经济与政治》，2005年第5期，第37-44页。
④赵可金、倪世雄，《中国国际关系理论研究》，上海：复旦大学出版社，2007年版，第29-34页。
⑤Michael W. Doyle, Ways of War and Peace: Realism, Liberalism and Socialism (NewYork and London: WW.Norton and Company Inc.,1997), pp.322-323.
①《马克思恩格斯选集》第2巻，北京：人民出版社，1973年版，第25页。
②《马克思恩格斯选集》第1卷，北京：人民出版社，1995年版，第114页。
③罗伯特·考克斯：《生产、权力和世界秩序：社会力量在缔造历史中的作用》，林华译，北京：世界知识出版社，2004年版，第12页。
④卡尔·马克思：《哥达纲领批判》，《马克思恩格斯选集》第3卷，北京：人民出版社，1985年版，第15页。
①Scott Burcill andAndrew Linklater, Theories of International Relations (London Macmillan Press Ltd.,1996), p.135.
②罗伯特·基欧汉主编：《新现实主义及其批判》，郭树勇译，北京：北京大学出版社，2002年版，第191，227页。
③陆昕，白云真，“试概述马克思主义国际关系理论”，《兰州学刊》，2009年第3期，第46页。
④王存刚，“为什么要发展马克思主义国际关系理论”，《世界经济与政治论坛》，2009年第5期，第7页。
⑤詹姆斯·多尔蒂、小罗伯特·普法尔茨格拉夫：《争论中的国际关系理论》，阎学通等译，北京：世界知识出版社，2003年版，第462,488页，
⑥Gabriele Wight and Brian Porter (eds), International Theory: the Three Traditons (Leicester and London LeicesterUniversity Press,1991); Michael W. Doyle, Ways of War and Peace: Realism, Liberalism and Socialism (New Yorkand London W.W. Norton&Company,1997).转引自陆昕，白云真，“试概述马克思主义国际关系理论”，第46页。
①郭树勇，“试论马克思主义国际关系思想及其研究方向”，《世界经济与政治》，2004年第4期，第14页。
②Kenneth Waltz, Theory of International Politics (Peking University Press,2004), pp.19-20.
③罗伯特·基欧汉：《霸权之后》，第51页。
④此处部分参考王存刚，“为什么要发展马克思主义国际关系理论”，第7-8页。
⑤Fredric Jameson, The Policital Unconscious Narrative as A Socially Synbolic Act (Cornell University Press,1981),p.10.
①Kenneth N. Waltz, Man, the state, and War: A Theoretical Analysis（NewYork: Columbia University Press,1959）.
②John David Singer,“International Conflict:Three Levels ofAnalysis”, World Politics, Vol.12, No.3（1960）, pp.453-461; and “The Level-of-analysis Problem in International Relations”, World Politics, Vol.14, No.1（1961）, pp.77-92.
③James Rosenau,“Pre-Theories and Theories of Foreign Policy”, in Barry Farrel (ed.), Approaches to Comparativeand International Politics (Evanston, IL: Northwestern University Press,1966), pp.29-92; and James Rosenan, TheScientific Study of Foreign Policy (London: Frances Printer,1980), pp.115-169.
④Bruce Russett and Harvey Starr, World Politics: AMenu for Choice (NewYork:W.H. Freeman,1992), pp.11-17.
①Barry Buzan,“The Level ofAnalysis Problem in International Relations Reconsidered”, in Ken Booth and SteveSmith (eds.), International Relations Theory Today (Cambridge:Dolity Press,1995), pp.198-217.
②对国际关系中层次分析法的论述还可参见：K. J. Holsti, International Politics: A Framework for Analysis (NewJersey: Engle Wood Cliffs),3thEdition,1977.
③沃尔兹认为国际政治理论最忌淹没在单元层次的琐碎行为中，一个好的理论，必须是高度简约的理论，即用越少的自变量来解释越多的因变量，由此提出体系层次的理论分析最具间接性与科学性，其核心假设是体系结构决定单元互动。参见：Kenneth N. Waltz, Theory of Internaitonal Politics (NewYork: McGraw-Hill,1979),pp.66-80.
④陈小鼎，“国际关系研究层次的上升与回落”，《世界经济与政治》，2008年第7期，第49页。
⑤宋学文，“从层次分析探讨霸权稳定论：一个国际关系理论演化的研究方法”，《问题与研究》（台北），第43卷，第2期（2004年），第178页。
⑥Alexander Wendt,“Anarchy is What States Make of It: the Social Construction of Power Politics,” InternationalOrganization, Vol.46, No.2（1992）, pp.391-425.转引自宋学文，“层次分析对国际关系研究的重要性及模型建构”，第172页。
①尚劝余，“国际关系层次分析法：起源、流变、内涵和应用”，《国际论坛》，2011年7月刊，第52页。
②戴维·赫尔德：《民主与全球秩序》，胡伟译，上海：上海人民出版社，2003年版，第20页。
③Kenneth N. Waltz,“Reflections on Theory of International Poltics:AResponse to My Critics”, in Robert Keohane(ed.), Neorealism and its Critics (NewYork Columbia University Press,1986), pp.339-440; Kenneth N. Waltz,“International Politics is Not Foreign Policy”, Security Studies, Vol.6, No.1(Autumn1996), pp.52-57.
④参见：Harald Muller and Thomas Risse-Kappen,“From the Outside In and From the Insideout: InternationalRelations, Domestic Politics and Foreign Policy”, in Valerie Hudson and David Skidmore (eds.), The Limits of StateAutonomy: SocietalGroups and Foreign Policy Formation (Boulder, CO: Westview,1993), pp.25-48;
⑤Robert Pahre and Paul Papayoanou,“Using Game Theory to Link Domestic and Internaitonal Politics”, Jounal ofConflict Resolution, Vol.41, No.1(February1997), p.4.
⑥Charles Hermann,“Changing Course: When Governments Choose to Redirect Foreign Policy”, InternationalStudies Quarterly, Vol.34, No.1(1990), pp.3-21.
⑦James Rosenau,“Toward the Study of National-International Linkage”, in James Rosenau (ed.), Linkage Politics:Essays on the Convergence of National and International Systems (New York: Free Press,1969), pp.44-63.
⑧Peter Katzenstein,“International Relations and Domestic Structures: Foreign Economic Policies of AdvancedIndustrialStates”, International Organization, Vo.l30, No.1(1976); and, Peter Katzenstein,“Domestic andInternational Forces and Strategies of Foreign Economic Policy”, International Organization, Vo.l31, No.4(1977).
①Robert Putnam,“Diplomacy and Domestic Politics:The Logic of Two-Level Games”, International Organization(Summer1998), Vol.42, No.3, pp.427-460.
②Peter B. Evans et al.(eds), Double-edged Diplomacy: Internaitoanl Bargaining and Domestic Politics (Berkeley:University of California Press,1993); Jeffrey W. Knopf,“Beyond Two-Level Games: Domestic-InternationalInteraction in the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Negotiations”, International Organization, Vol.47, No.4
（1994）, pp.599-628; Helen Milner, Interests, Institutions, and Information: Domestic Politics and InternationalRelation（Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press,1997）, pp.67-98; Michael Mastanduno (et al),“Toward aRealist Theory of State Action”, International Studies Quarterly, Vol.33, No.4(December1989), pp.457-474.
①Charles W. Kegley, Jr. and Eugene R. Wirrkopf, American Foreign Policy: Pattern and Press (NewYork: St.Martin’s Press,1996), p.
②Fareed Zakaria, From Wealth to Power: The Unusual Origins of America’s World Role (Princeton, NJ: PrincetonUniversity,1998), p.28.
③Aaron Friedberg, The Weary Titan: Britain and the Experience of Relative Decline:1895-1905(Princeton:Princeton University Press,1998), p.13.
①Gideon Rose,“Neoclassical Realism and Theories of Foreign Policy”, World Politics, Vol.51, No.1(October1998), pp.151-152.
③参见：Randall L. Schweller, Deadly Imbalance: Tripolarity and Hitler’s Strategy of World Conquest (NewYorkColumbia University Press,1998), pp.218-220.
④Alexander L. George,“Case Studies and Theory Development:The Method of Structured, Focused Comparison”,in Paul Gordon Lauren (ed), Diplomacy: New Approaches in History, Theory and Policy (NewYork: Free Press,1979).
①Colin Elman,“Horses for Courses:Why Not Neorealist of Foreign Policy?”Security Studies, Vol.6, No.1(Autumn1996), pp.18-22.
②Stephen M. Walt,“The Enduring Relevance of the Realist Tradition”, in Ira Katznelson and Helen V. Milner (eds.),Political Science: The State of the Disciplion (NewYork: Norton,2002), p.211.
③Thomas J. Christensen, Useful Adversaries Grand Strategy, Domestic Mobilisation, and Sino-American Conflict:1947-1958, p.16.
①William C. Wohlforth,“Realism and the End of the Cold War”, in Michael E. Brown et al (eds), The Perils ofAnarcy: Contemporary Realism and International Security (Cambridge MIT Press,1995), p.19.
②《列宁选集》第2卷，北京：人民出版社，1995年版，第577,682页。
③参见：[英]大卫·哈维：《新帝国主义》，初立忠等译，北京：社会科学文献出版社，2009年版；曹义恒，“斯克拉和贝克尔后帝国主义理论述评”，《马克思主义与现实》，2006年第4期，第107-113页；尚伟，“布哈林帝国主义理论解析及其现实意义”，《马克思主义研究》，2007年第10期，第62-67页；曹义恒、曹荣湘主编：
《后帝国主义》，北京：中央编译出版社，2007年版。
①安东尼奥·葛兰西：《实践哲学》，重庆：重庆出版社，1990年版，第2页。
②Immanuel Wallerstein, The Politics of World Economy: the States, the Movement and the Civilizations (CambridgeUniversity Press,1984), p.38.
③罗伯特·考克斯，“社会理论、国家与世界秩序：超越国际关系理论”，载罗伯特·基欧汉主编：《新现实主义及其批判》，郭树勇译，北京：北京大学出版社，2002年版，第203-204页。
④[英]贾斯廷·罗森伯格：《市民社会的帝国》，洪邮生译，南京：江苏人民出版社，2002年版，第7页。
⑤Katleen Thelen and Sven Steinmo,“Historical Institutionalismin Comparative Politics”, in Sven Steinmo et al.(eds.), Structuring Politics Historical Institutionalism in Comparative Analysis (Cambridge: Cambridge UniversityPress,1992), p.11.
⑥Randall L. Scweller, Unanswered Threats Political Constraints on the Balance of Power, pp.46-48.
①Peter J. Katzenstein (ed.), Between Power and Plenty: Foreign Economic Politics of Advanced Industrial States(Madison: University of Wisconsin Press,1978); Peter Gourevitch,“The Second ImageReversed: TheInternationalSources of Domestic Politics”, International Organization, Vol.32, No.4(Autumn1978), pp.881-912.
②George T. Crane andAblaAmawi (eds.), The Theoretical Evolution of International Poltical Economy: A Reader(NewYork: Oxford University Press,1997), p.4.
②William Wallace, Foreign Policy and the Political Process (London: Macmillan,1971), p.11.
③Richard C. Snyder, H. W. Bruck and Burton Sapin, Foreign Policy Decision-Making (NewYork: Free Press,1962),p.57.
⑤Richard C. Snyder, H. W. Bruck and Burton Sapin,“Decision-Making as an Approach to the Study of InternationalPolitics”, Foreign Policy Analysis (Princeton University), No.3,1954.
①杰里尔·A·罗赛蒂：《美国对外政策的政治学》，周启朋等译，北京：世界知识出版社，1997年版，第242-243页。
②胡伟：《政府过程》，杭州：浙江人民出版社，1998年版，第255页。
③托马斯·R·戴伊：《自上而下的政策制定》，鞠方安、吴忧译，北京：中国人民大学出版社，2002年版，第1页。
④John W. Kingdon, Agendas, Alternatives, and Public Policies (New York: Harper Collins College Publishers,1995),2ndEdition.
⑤王鸣鸣：“外交决策研究中的理性选择模式”，《世界政治与经济》2003年第11期，第14页。
⑥特雷沃·泰勒:《国际关系中的学派与理论》，钮先钟译，台北：台湾商务印书馆，1985年版，第191页。
⑦Steven J. Brams, Rational Politics (Washington D.C.: CQ Press,1985), Preface, p. VI.
⑧罗伯特·基欧汉：《霸权之后》，苏长和等译，上海人民出版社，2001年版，第80页。
①夏尔·菲利普·大卫：《白宫的秘密：从杜鲁门到克林顿的美国外交决策》，北京：中国人民大学出版社，1998年版，第4页。
②冯玉军：“对外政策研究中的决策理论”，《世界政治与经济》，2000年第2期，第30页。
③肯尼思·沃尔兹：《国际政治理论》，上海人民出版社，2003年版，第16页。
④Graham T.Allison, Essence of Decision, Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis (Boston: Little Brown Company,1971), pp.32-33.
⑤夏尔·菲利普·大卫：《白宫的秘密：从杜鲁门到克林顿的美国外交决策》，第14页。
⑥多尔蒂、普法尔茨格拉夫：《争论中的国际关系理论》，北京：世界知识出版社，1987年版，第502页。
①Graham T.Allison, Essence of Decision, p.67.
③JerelA. Rosati,“Developing a Systematic Decision-Making Framework: Bureaucratic Politics in Perspective,”World Politics, Vol.33, No.2(January,1981), pp.237-238；杰里尔·A·罗赛蒂：《美国对外政策的政治学》，第253页。
④Robert Jervis, Perception and Misperception in International Politics (Princeton:Princeton University Press),1976.
⑤夏尔·菲利普·大卫：《白宫的秘密：从杜鲁门到克林顿的美国外交决策》，第8页。
⑥Robert J.Art, Robert Jervis (eds.), International Politics: Anarchy, Force, Political Economy and Decision-Making(Boston: Little, Brown and Company,1985), the2ndedition, p.437.
①Tan Qingshan, The Making of U.S. China Policy: From Normalization to the Post-Cold War Era (Lynne RiennerPublisher: Bouler&London,1992), p.10.
②Roger Hilsman, To Move a Nation: The Politics of Foreign Policy in the Administration of John F. Kennedy (NewYork: Doubleday,1967), pp.541-544.
①Howard J. Wiarda, Foreign Policy Without Illusion: How Foreign Policy-Making Works and Fails to Work in theUnited States (NewYork: Scott,1990), pp.38-39.
②Charles W. Jr. Kegley and Eugene R. Wittkopf (eds.), American Foreign Policy: Pattern and Process,5thEdition(NewYork: St. Martin’s Press,1996).
①汉密尔顿、杰伊、麦迪逊：《联邦党人文集》，程逢如等译，北京：商务印书馆，1980年版，第246页。
②路易斯·亨金：《宪政·民主·对外事务》，邓正来译，北京三联书店，1996年版，第27页。
③杰里尔·A·罗赛蒂：《美国对外政策的政治学》，第40页。
④埃尔默·普利施科：《首脑外交》，周启朋译，北京：世界知识出版社，1990年版，第10页。
①斯蒂芬·斯科夫罗内克：《总统政治》，黄云等译，北京：新华出版社，2003年，第4页。
②杰里尔·A·罗赛蒂：《美国对外政策的政治学》，第71-75页。
③James M. McCormick, American Foreign Policy and Process, p.356.
①林廷辉：“美国国家安全顾问与国务卿于外交决策制定过程中之竞争关系”，载台湾《通识研究集刊》第五期，2004年6月，第118页。
②The United States National Security Act of1947, Title I, Section101(a).
③赫德里克·史密斯：《权力游戏——华盛顿是如何工作的》，肖峰等译，北京：中国人民大学出版社，1991年版，第338页。
④Stanley L. Falk,“The National Security Council Under Truman, Eisenhower, and Kennedy”, Political ScienceQuarterly, Vol.79, No.3(September,1964), p.434.
②Rodrigue Tremblay, The Five Pillars of the U.S. Military-Industrial Complex.(http://www.thenewamericanempire.com/author.html.)
③唐晓：“美国外交决策机制概论”，《外交学院学报》1996年第1期，第49页。
①David Wise and Thomas Ross, The Invisible Government（NewYork: Random House,1974）, p.132.
②罗杰·希尔斯曼：《美国是如何治理的》，曹大鹏译，北京：商务印书馆，1986年版，第244页。
①汉密尔顿、杰伊、麦迪逊：《联邦党人文集》，第264页。
③杰里尔·A·罗赛蒂：《美国对外政策的政治学》，第267页。
④路易斯·亨金，《宪政·民主·对外事务》，第31-32页。转引自陈积敏，“论美国总统与国会外交权力的博弈”，《江南社会学院学报》2009年6月（第11卷第2期），第24页。
⑤Krasner Chaberski and Jones, America Government, Structure and Process (New York: Macmilan,1977), p.8.
⑥RobertA. Pastor, Congress and the Politics of U.S. Foreign Economics:1929-1976(Berkeley, Los Angeles andLondon: University of California Press,1980), p.53.
⑦孙仲：“论美国总统与国会外交决策权的消长”，《浙江大学学报》（人文科学版），第30卷，第2期，第71页。
①参议院88票赞成、2票反对，众议院416票赞成、0票反对。
②周琪主编：《国会与美国外交政策》，上海：上海社会科学出版社，2006年版，第11页。
③詹姆斯·M·伯恩斯：《民治政府》，北京：中国社会科学出版社，1996年版，第609页。
④Ramdall B. Ripley and James M. Lindsay (eds.), Congress Resurgent: Foreign and Defense Policy on Capitol Hill
(The University of Michigan Press,1993), pp.18~22; Walt Vanderbush and Patrick J. Haney,“Clinton, Congress andCuba Policy Between Two Codifications:The Changing Executive-Legislative Relationship in Foreign PolicyMaking,” Congress&the Presidency, Vol.29, No.2(Autumn2002), pp.171-194.
①William Schneider,“From Foreign Policy to ‘Politics as Usual’,” in DavidA. Deese (ed.), The New Politics ofAmerican Foreign Policy (St. Martin’s Press Inc.,1994), Introduction, p. X.
②Alexis de Tocqueville, Democracy in America (AlfredA. Knopf, Inc.,1956), p.1836.
③Roger Hilsman, To Govern America (Harper&Row: Publishers,1979), p.263; Denise L Baer, DavidABositis,Politics and Linkage in a Democratic Society (N. J. Pretice-Hall Inc.,1993), p.24; Mark P Petracca (ed.), The politicsof Interests: Interest Groups Transformed (Boulder:Westview Press,1992), p.3.
④Arthur Bentley, The Process of Government: A Study of Social Pressures (Cambridge, Mass.: Belknap Press ofHarvard University Press,1967), pp.205-208.
⑤David B Truman, The Government Process（N.Y.:Alfred Knopf,1951), pp.368,523.
①Bruce C. Wolpe and Bertram J. Levine, Lobbying Congress: How the System Works (Congressional Quarterly Inc.,1996),2ndEdition, p.78.
②孙大雄，“利益集团在美国政治中的地位和作用”，《社会主义研究》，2003年第3期，第105页。
③一译“思想库”。英文Think Tank原意是美国第二次大战期间为国防科学家和军事参谋提供的一种能够让他们在一起讨论作战计划和其它战略问题的安全保险的房间或环境，后用来指代从事政策分析研究的组织和机构。见Donald E.Abelson, American Think-Tanks and their Role in U.S. Foreign Policy (London and NewYork:Macmillan and St. Martin's Press,1996); Donald E.Abelson, Do Think Tanks Matter? Assessing the Impact of PublicPolicy Institutes (Montreal and Kingston: McGill-Queen's University Press,2009),2ndEdition.
①据James McGann所做的“2008年全球智库指数”统计，截至2008年底全球共有5500家智库，其中美国1777家，约占全球总数的1/3。见James McGann,“The Think Tank Index,” Foreign Policy（January/February,2009）,p.82.2011年1月25日James McGann又发表新统计，全美有广义上智库1816家。见James McGann,“The Global‘GO-TO Think Tanks’:The Leading Public Policy Research Organizations in the World”, The Think Tanks and CivilSocieties Program, University of Pennsylvania, January2011.
(http://www.ony.unu.edu/enents-forums/news/CA/2011/worldranking-of-thinktans.php.)
③James G. McGann, Comparative Think Tanks, Politics and Public Policy (Northampton: Edward Elgar PublishingLimited,2005), p.12.
④Richard N. Haass,“Think Tanks and U.S. Foreign Policy:APolicy-Maker’s Perspective”, An Electronic Journal ofthe U.S. Department of State, Vol.7, No.3(November2002), pp.6-8.
⑤Donald E.Abelson, American Think-Tanks and Their Role in US Foreign Policy (ST. Martin’s Press, INC.,1996),p.71.
②V. O. Key, Public Opinion and American Democracy (NewYork:Alfred. A. Knopf,1961), p.552.
③Walter Lippmann, The Phantom Public (New Brunswick and London :Transaction Publishers,1993), p.4.
④汉斯·摩根索：《国家间政治》，北京：商务印书馆，1993年版，第201页。
⑤Thomas A. Bailey, The Men in the Street (NewYork: Macmillan,1948), p.1.
⑥Samuel Popkin, The Reasoning Voter: Communication and Persuasion in Presidential Campaigns (Chicago:University of Chicago Press,1991), p.106.
①斯提芬·K·贝尼主编：《美国政治与政府》，石家庄：河北大学出版社，1981年版，第24页。
②David L. Paletz, Media in American Polities (Addison-Wesley Educational Publishers Inc,2002),2ndEdition,pp.344-345.
③Thomas W. Graham, The Politics of Failure: Strategic Arms Control, Public Opinion and Domestic Politics in theUnited States,1945~1980(Massachusetts Inst. of Technology,1989), p.78.转引自王鸣鸣，“公众舆论与美国对外政策”，《世界政治与经济》，2002年第5期，第80页。
④Freedom of Information Act（FOIA),1966.
⑤Philip Powlick,“The Attitudinal Bases for Responsiveness to Public Opinion amongAmerican Foreign PolicyOfficials”, Journal of Conflict Resolution, No.35,1991, pp.612~613.
④陈建荣，“美国对华决策政治系统及要求”，《东南亚研究》，2002年第6期，第19页。
⑤袁鹏、傅梦孜：《美国思想库及其对华倾向》，北京：时事出版社，2003年版，第44页。
①Erik Eckholm,“The Cold War Left No Maps For This Face-Off,” New York Times,April8,2001.
②Doris Graber, Mass Media and American Politics (Washington: CQ Press,1997), p.375.
③艾森豪威尔：《艾森豪威尔回忆录——白宫岁月（上）》，上海：三联书店，1977年版，第446页。
①James M. Lindsay, Congress and the Politics of U.S. Foreign Policy (Baltimore, MD:The Johns HopkinsUniversity Press,1994), p. VII.
②转引自郝雨凡：《美国对华政策内幕》，北京：台海出版社，1998年版，第430页。
③John G. Tower,“Congress VS the President:The Formulation and Implementation ofAmerican Foreign Policy”,Foreign Affairs (Winter1981), p.2.
④Matthew D. McCubbins (ed.),“Congressional Oversight Overlooked: Police Patrols versus Fire Alarms”,American Journal of Political Science, February1984, No.28.
①方曙兵，“国会与美国外交决策”，《东南亚纵横》，2009年第1期，第82页。
②托马斯·戴伊：《民主的嘲讽》，北京：世界知识出版社，1991年版，第270页。
③I.M. Destler,“The Rise of the National Security Assistant,” in Charles W. Jr. Kegley and Eugene R. Wittkopf (eds.),Perspectives on American Foreign Policy: Selected Readings (NewYork: St. Martin’s1983), p.262.
①托克维尔：《论美国的民主》，董果良译，北京：商务印书馆，1999年版，第261页。
②G. D. Gerson, Group Theories of Politics (Sage Publications, Inc.,1978), p.207.有关多元精英主义的阐述可参见：Anne N. Costain andAndrew S. McFarland (eds.), Social Movement and American Political Institutions (Lanham,Rowman&Littlefield Publishers, Inc.,1998); H. R.Mahood, Interest Groups Politics in America: a New Intensity
(Pr-entice-Hall Inc.,1990.); David K Ryden, Representation in Crisis: The Constitution, Interest Groups and PoliticalParties (Albany: State University of New York Press,1996), etc.
③GabrielA. BrahamAlmond, The American People and Foreign Policy (NewYork: Praeger,1965).
①Bernard Cohen, The Press and Foreign Policy (Princeton N.J.: Princeton University Press,1963), p.13.
②David M. Ricci, The Transformation of American Politics: the new Washington and the Rise of Think Tanks (NewHaven&London:Yale University Press.1997), p.16.
③C. Wright Mills, The Power Elites (London: Oxford University Press,1956), p.22.
④恩格斯：载《马克思恩格斯选集》第4卷，人民出版社，1995年版，第697页。
①Arthur M. Schlesinger, The Imperial Presidency (Boston: Houghton Mifflin Company),1973.
②Cecil VCrab Jr., The Doctrines of American Foreign Policy: Their Meaning, Role and Future (Louisiana StateUniversity Press,1982), p.67.
①David Baldwin,“Concept of Security”, Review of International Studies, Vol.23,1997, pp.5-26.
②参见英国战略家哈特（Liddell Hart）对大战略的定义：指导一个国家调动本国甚至盟国的所有军事、政治、经济和精神资源来达到其政治目标的最高战略。Liddell Hart, Strategy (NewYork: Frederick A. Praeger,1967), pp.335-336.
③Charles A. Kupchan, The End of the American Era: U.S. Foreign Policy and the Geopolitics of the21stCentury(Alfred A. Knopf,2002), p.26.
①Doug Bandow,“Keeping the Troops and the Money at Home”, Current History, Vol.93, No.579(January1994), p.8.
②Thomas Paine, Common Sense (NewYork: Penguin Books,1986), p.86; George Washington,“Farewell Address”,（http://www.ushistory.org/documents/farewelladdress.htm.）
③罗伯特·卡根：《天堂与实力》，肖蓉等译，北京：新华出版社2004年版，第132-133页。转引自李永成，“美国行为的战略文化根源：科林·德维克的美国战略文化理论述评”，《国际论坛》，2009年第6期，第45页。
④潘忠岐：“冷战后美国大战略的理论思辨”，《国际观察》，2006年第1期，第27页。
①互惠理论用以解决国际多边合作中的合作稀缺性，提出用“一报还一报”（tit-for-tat）、“强互惠”（strongreciprocity）和“利他性惩罚”（altruistic punishment）等策略来处理在缺乏中央权威的情况下，利己主义者如何摆脱囚徒困境从而实现合作的根本问题。相关研究见：RobertAxelord, Robert Keohane,“Achieving Cooperationunder Anarchy: Strategy and Institutions”, in Kenneth Oye (ed.), Cooperation under Anarchy (Princeton: PrincetonUniversity Press,1986); Samuel Bowles, Herbert Gintis,“The Evolution of Strong Reciprocity: Cooperation inHeterogeneous Population”, Theoretical Population Biology, No.1,2004; Herbert Gintis,“Strong Reciprocity andHuman Sociality”, Journal of Theoretical Biology, Vol.206, No.2,2000, etc.
②Colin Dueck, Reluctant Crusaders: Power, Culture and Changing in American Grand Strategy (Princeton andOxford: Princeton University,2006), p.26.
③Condoleezza Rice,“ABalance of Power that Favors Freedom”, in the International Information ProgramElectronic Journal:“U.S. National Security Strategy:ANew Era”, December2002.（http://usgovinfo.about.com/library/weekly/-aarice.htm.）
④Condoleezza Rice,“Rethinking the National Interest:American Realism for a New World”, Foreign Affairs, Vol.87,No.4(July/August,2008)（http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/64445/condoleezza-rice/rethinking-the-national-interest.）
①Andrew J. Bacevich,“What’s Isolationism?” Los Angels Times, February2,2006, p. B11.
②Barry Posen andAndrew Ross,“Competing Visions for U.S. Grand Strategy”, International Security, Vol.21, No.3,(Winter1996/1997), pp.5-53; Robert J.Art, Grand Strategy for America (Ithaca: Cornell University Press,2003),p.82; RobertArt,“Geopolitics Updated:The Strategy of Selective Engagement”, International Security, Vol.23, No.3(Winter1998/1999), pp.79-113; RobertArt,“ADefensible Defense:Americas’Grand Strategy after the Cold War”,International Security, Vol.15, No.4(Spring1991), pp.5-53.
①理查德·哈斯：《规制主义——冷战后的美国全球新战略》，北京：新华出版社，1999年版，第3页。
②George F. Kennan, Around the Cragged Hill: A Personal and Political Philosophy (New York: W. W. Norton,1993), p.180; Norman Ornstein,“Foreign Policy and the1992Elections”, Foreign Affairs, Vol.71, No.3(Summer1992), pp.3~4.
③Samuel P. Huntington,“The Lonely Superpower”, Foreign Affairs, Vol.78, No.2(March/April,1999).
④参见James Lindsay,“The NewApathy”, Foreign Affairs, Vol.79, No.5(September/October,2000), pp.2-3.
⑤James M. Lindsay,“The NewApathy: How an Uninterested Public is Reshaping Foreign Policy,” Foreign Affairs,September/October2000.(http://www.brook.edu/dybdocroot/views/articles/lindsay/2000sept_FA.htm.)
⑥George W. Bush, Address to a Joint Session of Congress and the American People, Office of the Press Secretary,September20,2001.(http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2001/09/20010920-8.html.)
⑧王鸣鸣，“美国的对外政策调整与‘布什主义’”，载李慎明、王逸舟主编：《2006年全球政治与安全报告》，北京：社会科学文献出版社，2006年版，第96-97页，
①George W. Bush, State of the Union Address, Office of the Press Secretary, January29,2002.(http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2002/01/20020129-11.html.)
②George W. Bush, President Out lines War Effort, Office of the Press Secretary, April17,2002.(http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2002/04/20020417-1.html.)
③即“打击恐怖主义国家战略”（National Strategy for Combating Terrorism）。
④George W. Bush, President Sworn-Into Second Term, Office of the Press Secretary, January20,2005.(http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2005/01/20050120-1.html.)
⑤The National Security Strategy of the United States of America, March2006, p.3.(http://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/nsc/2006/nss2006.pdf.)
⑥2001年9月底至11月初，美国政府抽调数百名联邦政府各部门高级官员组成“影子政府”，由空军F-16战斗机护送离开华盛顿，前往东海岸的秘密地下掩体工作，为的是万一再次发生重大袭击能确保联邦政府继续运转，保障国家的基础物资供应，维持交通、卫生、能源与电信网络及有关秩序，过一段时间再重组政府。与此同时，副总统（切尼）也一直在秘密地点办公，随时准备在总统遭遇不测时接任大位、维持国家机器运转。
⑦US Department of Defense, Quadrennial Defense Review Report, September30,2001.(http://www.defenselink.mil.)
②Richard N. Haass,“Reflections AYear after September11”, Remarks to International Institute for Strategic Studies,September13,2002.(http://www.state.gov/s/p/rem/.)
③George W. Bush, Commencement Address at the United States Military Academy in West Point, June1,2002.(http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=62730#axzz1UQ4ED4Hz.)
④Donald Henry Rumsfeld, Annual Defense Report2002.(http://www.defense.gov/adr/.)
⑤Office of the President, The National Security Strategy of the United States of America, September2002, pp.15-16.(http://usinfo.state.gov/topical/pol/terror/secstrat.htm.)
①George W. Bush,“ADistinctly American Internationalism”, Speech at Ronald Regan Library (November19,1999.)(http://www.newamericancentury.org/Iss11%20Nov29%20editorial.pdf.)
②Charles Krauthammer,“The Unipolar Moment”, Foreign Affairs, Vol.70, No.1(Winter1990/1991), pp.23-33;Dan Blumenthal,“Why It’s Still a Unipolar Era”, The Journal of American Enterprise Institute, March22,2011.(http://www.american.com/archive/2011/march/why-its-still-a-unipolar-era.)
③Joseph Nye, The Paradox of American Power: Why the World’s Only Superpower Can’t Go It Alone?(New York:Oxford University Press,2002), p.155.
④Ivo H. Daalder and James M. Lindsay, America Unbound: the Bush Revolution in Foreign Policy (WashingtonD.C.: Brookings Institution Press,2003), p.199.
⑤Michael J. Kelly,“The Bush Foreign Policy2001-2003: Unilateralist Theory in a Multilateral World”,(http://law.wustl.edu/Publications/WUGSLR/IssueArchive/Volume_2_1/Kelly_book_pages.pdf.); Thom Shanker,“White House Says the US is Not a Loner, Just Chooser”, New York Times, July31，2001.
①Sebastian Mallaby,“The Reluctant Imperialist:Terrorism, Failed States and the Case for American Empire”,Foreign Affairs, Vol.81, No.2(March/April,2002), pp.2-7.
②Arthur M. Schlesinger, Jr., The Cycles of American History (Boston: Houghton Mifflin Company,1986),pp.128-129.
③时殷弘，“美国权势的变迁”，《现代国际关系》，2006年第9期，第26页。
④比较有代表性的著述有：James Kurth,“Confronting the Unipolar Moment: theAmerican Empire and IslamicTerrorism”, Current History, Vol.101, No.659(December2002), p.403; John Bellamy Foster,“The Rediscovery ofImperialism”, Review of the Month, Vol.54, No.6(November2002); G. John Ikenberry,“America’s ImperialAmbition”, Foreign Affairs, Vol.81, No.5(September./October,2002); Martin Walker,“America’s Virtual Empire”,World Policy Journal (Summer2002).Andrew J. Bacevich, The American Empire (Harvard University Press,2002).
⑤G. John Ikenberry,“Liberalism and Empire: Logics of Order in theAmerican UnipolarAge”, Review ofInternational Studies, Vol.30, No.4,2004．
⑥Stephen Peter Rosen,“An Empire, if You can Keep it”, The National Interest, Spring2003, p.61.
⑦Bill Emmott,“Present at the Creation”, The Economist, June29,2002, p.10.
⑧George W. Bush,“Remarks by the president at the United StatesAir Force Academy Graduation”, White HousePress, June2,2004. in Robert Jervis (ed.), American Foreign Policy in a New Era (London: Routledge,2005), p.80.
⑨Robert G. Kaufman, In Defense of the Bush Doctrine (the University Press of Kentucky,2007), p.87.
①The National Security Strategy of the United States of America, September2002, p.3.
③贾斯廷·罗森伯格：《市民社会的帝国——现实主义国际关系理论批判》，洪邮生译，南京：江苏人民出版社，2002年版，序言。
④David C. Hendrickson,“Toward Universal Empire:The Dangerous Quest for Absolute Security”, World PolicyJournal, Fall2002, p.7.
⑤Kenneth N. Waltz,“American as a Model for the World?AForeign Policy Perspective,” Political Science andPolitics,Vol.24, No.4(December1991), pp.667-670.
⑥“War With Iraq is NOT inAmerica’s National Interest”, anAdvertisement from the op-ed page of the New YorkTimes, September26,2002, signed by33scholars of international relations.(http://www.bear-left.com/archive/2002/0926oped.html.）
⑦John J. Mearsheimer,“Hearts and Minds”, The National Interest, Vol.69(Fall2002), pp.13-16.
⑧John Lewis Gaddis,“Grand Strategy in the Second Term”, Foreign Affairs (January/February,2005), p.2.
①ABC/Washington Post, February12-16,2003; USAToday/CNN/Gallup Poll, January7-9,2005.
②Madeleine K. Albright,“Bridges, Bombs, or Bluster?” Foreign Affairs (September/October,2003), p.8.
③Ivan Krastev,“TheAnti-American Century”, Journal of Democracy, Vol.15, No.2(April,2004), pp.5-16.
④Melvyn P. Leffler,“9/11and the Past and Future of American Foreign Policy”, International Affairs, Vol.79, No.5,2003, pp.1050-1051.
⑤Chuck Hagel,“A Republican Foreign Policy”, Foreign Affairs, Vol.64, No.2(July/August,2004), p.65.
①全球化和全球主义的“稀薄”（thin）、“浓厚”(thick)之说出自：Robert O. Keohane and Joseph S. Nye Jr.,“Globalization:What’s New? What’s Not?(And So What?)” Foreign Policy (Spring2000), pp.109-110.
②Daniel Yergin,“Globalization: the Inside Story of Our New Interconnected World”, Social Education (NationalCouncil for the Social Studies), Vol.66,2002.
③宋德星：“后冷战时代大战略缔造特有的困难”，《国际政治》，2009年第3期，第7页。
④IMF, World Economic Outlook2009(Washington DC: International Monetary Fund,2009), pp.169-176.
⑤World Bank, Total GDP2000:World Development Indicators Database,April2002; World Bank, Gross DomesticProduct2009:World Development Indicators Database, July1,2010.转引自韦宗友：“新兴大国群体性崛起与全球治理变革”，《国际论坛》，2011年第2期，第8页。
⑥因巴西(Brazil)、俄罗斯(Russia)、印度(India)、中国(China)这四个国家首字母的缩写BRIC发音类似英文单词中的“brick”(砖块)，故名“金砖四国”。Jim O’Neill,“Building Better Global Economic, BRICs”, in Goldman Sachs:Global Economics Paper, No.66, December30,2001, p.1-3.统计数据另见：Goldman Sachs,“BRICs by theNumbers”, December2009.(http://www.goldmansachs.co.nz/ideas/brics/bricsat8/index.html.)
⑦Dominic Wilson and Roopa Purushothaman,“Dreaming with BRICs: the Path to2050”, in Goldman Sachs: GlobalEconomics Paper, No.99, October1,2003, p.1.
⑧包括印尼、菲律宾、孟加拉国、越南、伊朗、韩国、墨西哥、埃及、尼日利亚、巴基斯坦和土耳其。见：“TheNext11”, December12,2005.(http://www.amazines.com/Next_Eleven_related.html.); Jim O’Neill and AnnaStupnytska,“The Long-term Outlook for the BRICs and N11Post Crisis”, in Goldman Sachs: Global EconomicsPaper, No.192, December4,2009.
②IMF, World Economic Outlook, October2008.(http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2008/02/.)
④黄仁伟：“新兴大国参与全球治理的利弊”，《现代国际关系》，2009年第11期，第21页。
⑤Dodd Randall and Paul Mills,“Outbreak: US Subprime Contagion”, Finance&Development (IMF), June2008,p.14.
①转引自吴一群，刘榆：“刍议2008年全球金融危机的影响及启示”，《东南学术》，2009年第1期，第29-30页。
②保罗·肯尼迪：《没有永久的霸权》，劳垅等译，沈阳：辽宁人民出版社，1989年版，第304-305页。
③OECD, Main Economic Indicators: Sources and Definitions, June2000, p.263.(http://browse.oecdbookshop.org/oecd/pdfs/free/3100131e.pdf.)
④Peter J. Katzenstein, A World of Region: Asia and Europe in the American Imperium (Ithaca, New York: CornellUniversity Press,2005);ASurvey ofAmerica’s World Role, The Economist, June29,2002, p.4.
⑤http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/natsec/RL33110.pdf.
⑥Joel Bainerman,“How Much Will the War in Iraq Cost the U.S. Taxpayer?” The Middle East, Issue364(February,2006), pp.16-17.事实上，美国在伊拉克战场花费的确切数字至今难以统计，外界的估算在4万亿美元左右。
⑦Fred Bergsten,“The Dollar and the Deficits: How Washington can Prevent the Next Crisis”, Foreign Affairs(November/December,2009).
①U.S. National Intelligence Council, Global Trends2025: A Transformed World (Washington DC: US GovernmentPrinting Office,2008), pp.1-14.
②Tony Haipin,“Brazil, Russia India and China Form Bloc to Challenge US Dominance”, Times, June17,2009.(http://www.timesonline.co.hk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/article6514737.ece.); Sheldon Fliger,“BRIC SummitEnd of Dominance of U.S. Dollar”, Huffington Post, June17,2009.(http://www.huffingtonpost.com/sheldon-fliger.)
③U.S. National Intelligence Council, Global Trends2025: A Transformed World, p.28.
④伊曼纽尔·沃勒斯坦：《现代世界体系》，龙来寅等译，北京：高等教育出版社，1998年版，第一卷，第58页。
⑤汤因比（Arnold Toynbee）、沃勒斯坦、戈登斯坦（Joshua Goldstein）和莫德尔斯基（George Modelski）等学者认为国际体系转型当中存在“以一个世纪”或者“一百年多一点”的战争和平周期，其间反复出现大国争夺国际体系主导权的战争，如16世纪的西班牙和葡萄牙、17世界的荷兰、18世纪的法国和19世纪的英国、20世纪的美国等等。具体论述参见：Immanuel Wallerstein, The Politics of the World Economy (Cambridge: CambridgeUniversity Press,1984), pp.40-45; George Modelski, Long Cycles in World Politics (Hampshire and London:Macmillan Press,1987), pp.40-41; Joshua S. Goldstein,“Kondratieff Waves as War Cycles”, International StudiesQuarterly, No.4,1985, pp.413-416.
⑥杨洁勉，“新兴大国群体在国际体系转型中的战略选择”，《国际政治》，2008年第9期，第5页。
①王金强，《“他者”的崛起与后美国时代下的权力转移》，《美国研究》，2010年第1期，第131页。
②Fareed Zakaria, The Post-American World (New York: Norton,2008), pp.32-35,44,210.
③The National Security Strategy of the United States of America, March2006.
①韩隽，“布什政府转型外交评析”，《新疆大学学报》，2008年第6期，第25页。
②Condoleezza Rice,“Rethinking the National Interest:American Realism for a New World”, Foreign Affairs(July/August2008).
⑤Javier Solana,“The Transatlantic Rift US Leadership After September11”, Harvard International Review, Issue4(Winter2002), p. XXIV.
⑥Steven Everts and Daniel Keohane,“The European Convention and EU Foreign Policy: Learn from Failure”,Survival, Vol.45, No.3(Autumn2003), p.177.
⑦有关新保守主义的论点与研究参见：Robert Kagan and William Kristol (eds.), Present Dangers: Crisis andOpportunity in American Foreign and Defense Policy (San Francisco: Encounter Books,2000); John Ehrman, TheRise of Neoconservatism: Intellectuals and Foreign Affairs (New Haven and London: Yale University Press,1995);Gary Dorrien, The Neoconservative Mind: Politics, Culture, and the War of Ideology (Philadelphia: TempleUniversity Press,1993); Peter Steinfels, The Neoconservatives: The Men Who Are Changing Americans Politics(New York: Simon and Schuster,1979); Irving Kristol,“American Conservatism1945-1995”, The Public Interest,Fall1995, pp.80-91; Norman Podhoretz,“Neoconservatism: A Eulogy”, Commentary, March1996, pp.19-27;William Kristol and Robert Kagan,“Toward a Neo-Reaganite Foreign Policy”, Foreign Affairs, July/August1996;Irving Kristol,“Foreign Policy in an Age of Ideology”, The National Interest, Fall1985, etc.
①Charles Krauthammer,“The Unipolar Moment”, pp.24,29,33.
②Irving Kristol,“The Neoconservative Persuasion: What It Was, and What It Is”, The Weekly Standard, August25,2003, pp.24-25.
④如国防部副部长保罗·沃尔福威茨（Paul Wolfowitz），负责国防部政策事务的副部长道格拉斯·菲斯（DouglasFeith），副总统办公室主任兼副总统国家安全顾问刘易斯·利比(Lewis Libby)，国务院负责军控和国际安全事务的副国务卿约翰·博尔顿（John Bolton），负责全球事务的助理国务卿保拉·多布里扬斯基(Paula Dobriansky)，国防政策委员会主席理查德·珀尔（Richard Perle）等。除了这些政府公职人员，美国还有一批新保守主义分子活跃在媒体和智库，主要有《国家利益》（National Interest）主编欧文·克里斯托(Irving Kristol)和他的儿子、《旗帜周刊》（Weekly Standard）主编威廉·克里斯托、《华盛顿邮报》专栏作家查尔斯·克劳塞默(CharlesKrauthammer)、新闻记者罗伯特·卡普兰（Robert Kaplan)、卡内基国际和平基金会的罗伯特·卡根、“新美国世纪计划”副主任汤姆·唐纳利（Tom Donnally）和耶鲁大学教授唐纳德·卡根（Donald Kagan）等人。
⑥张建新，“布什政府单边主义外交政策的困境”，《和平与发展》，2007年第1期，第31页。
⑦拉氏并不赞同新保守主义不但要消灭萨达姆政权而且要求美国承担重建伊拉克民主的责任，认为政权建设是伊拉克人的事情，为此拒绝向伊拉克增兵。此举受到威廉·克里斯托等新保守主义分子的攻击。参见：陈雅莉，“陨落中的美国新保守主义”，《华盛顿观察》2003年第40期。
⑧Alan Beattie,“US Economy Contracts6.2%”, Financial Times, February7,2009.
②Joseph S. Nye,“Testing Obama’s Foreign Policy”.(http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/nye77.)
③Prepared Remarks of President Barack Obama:“ANew Strategy for Afghanistan and Pakistan”, Washington, D.C.,March27,2009.
⑤Joe Biden’s Remarks at Munich Global Defense Conference (February7,2009), The Washington File, February9,2009.
⑦中国社科院美国研究所美国外交研究室，“美国对外战略的调整及对我国的影响”，《和平与发展》，2010年第5期，第16页。
⑧约瑟夫·奈于2003年发明该词，但普遍认为最先将这一概念引入公共政策研究的是美国前驻联合国代表苏珊娜·诺赛尔（Suzanne Nossel），她在2004年春的《外交》杂志上发表了题为“巧实力”的文章。Suzanne Nossel,
“Smart Power”, Foreign Affairs, Vol.83, Issue2(March/April2004).
①Joseph S. Nye Jr.,“The U.S. Can Reclaim ‘Smart Power’”, Los Angeles Times, January21,2009.
②陈积敏，“美国领导：奥巴马政府《国家安全战略报告》评析”，《和平与发展》，2010年第4期，第41页。
③Dennis Blair, Annual Threat Assessment of the Intelligence Community for the Senate Committee on Intelligence,February12,2009.
①Office of the President, The National Security Strategy of the United States of America, September2002, p.1.
②The White House,“The National Security Strategy”, May2010.
③刘建飞，“美国‘民主联盟’战略的困境”，《美国研究》，2010年第3期，第16页。
④Immanuel Wallerstein, The Decline of American Power: The U.S. in a Chaotic World (W. W. Norton&Company,2006),p.503.
⑤约翰·柯林斯：《大战略》，北京：：军事科学院出版社，1978年版，第29页。
⑥James Der Derian，“9/11”事件及其对国际关系学科的影响”，《世界经济与政治》，2006年第5期。另参见：
①Immanuel Wallerstein,“The Eagle Has Crash Landed”, Foreign Policy, July/August,2002.
②Bob Woodward, Bush at War (NewYork: Simon&Schuster,2002),1stEdition, p.33.
③George W. Bush tellsABC News’Charles Gibson about His First100Days in Office in Good Morning,America”,ABC News, April25,2001.(http://abcnews.go.com/WN/Politics/story.)
①Bob Woodward, State of Denial: Bush at WarⅢ(NewYork: Simon&Schuster,2005), p.33.
②Tomas Donnelly,“What’s Next? PreservingAmerican Primacy, Institutionalizing Unipolarity National SecurityOutlook”, AEI online (Washington, May1,2003), p.1.
③US Department of Defense, Quadrennial Defense Review Report, September30,2001.
④The National Security Strategy of the United States of America, September2002, p.27.
⑤The National Security Strategy of the United States of America, March2006.
⑦Condoleezza Rice,“Promoting the National Interest”, Foreign Affairs (January/February2003), p.55.
①托克维尔：《论美国的民主》，董果良译，北京：商务印书馆，1988年版，第518页。
②JeffreyA. Krames, The Rumsfield Way：Leadership Wisdom of a Battle-Hardened Maverick (Quebecor World Press,2002), pp.168-169.
①朱峰，“奥巴马政府的外交与安全战略：‘变革时代’已经来临？”，《和平与发展》，2009年第3期，第22页。
②“The War over the Wonks: the List of the National Security and Foreign PolicyAdvisers to the LeadingPresidential Candidates from Both Parties”, Washington Post, October2,2008.
③United States Foreign Policy:Asia, by Conlon Associates, Ltd., November1,1959(Washington: GovernmentPrinting Office,1959).
④U.S Congressional Record,81stCongress,“U.S. Policy with Respect to Mainland China: Hearings”, secondsession on U.S. Policy with Respect to Mainland China, March8,10,16,18,21,28,30(Washington: U.S.Government Printing Office,1966).
⑤Richard Moorsteen and Morton Abramowitz, Remaking China policy; U.S.-China Relations and GovernmentalDecision-making (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press,1971).
⑥Zalmay Khalilzad,“Congage China”, RAND Issue Papers187,1999.
⑤James Allen Smith, The Idea Brokers: Think Tanks and the Rise of the New Policy Elite (New York: The Free Press,1990), p.206.
①E.Abelsond, Do Think Tanks Matters? Assessing the Impact of Public Policy Institutes (London: McGill-Queen’sUniversity Press,2002), p.90.
①David Lampton,“Paradigm Lost:The Demise of ‘Weak China’”, The National Interest, No.81(Fall2005),pp.73-81.
②Amelia Newcomb,“Is China JapanAll Over Again?”(http://www.csmonitor.com/2005/0819/p01s04-woap.html.)
③Editorial,“Emerging China”, Washington Post, July10,2005.
④Robert Kagan,“The Illusion of ‘Managing’China”, The Washington Post, May15,2005, p. B07.
⑤Paul Wolfowitz, Defense Planning Guidance.(http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/ages/frontline/shows/iraq/etc/wolf.html.)
⑥约翰·米尔斯海默：《大国政治的悲剧》，王义桅、唐小松译，上海：上海人民出版社，2003年版，第4页。
⑦John Mearsheimer,“The Future of theAmerican Pacific”, Foreign Affairs (September/October,2001), p.54.
⑧肯尼斯·沃尔兹：《国际政治理论》，信强译，上海：上海人民出版社，2003年版，第126页。
⑨Roger Cliff,“Beware Beijing’s MilitaryAmbitions”, Los Angeles Times,August7,2005.
①Abraham Denmark and Nirav Patel (eds.), China’s Arrival: A Strategic Framework for a Global Relationship,Center for a NewAmerican Security, September2009.(http://www.cnas.org/files/documents/publications/CNAS%20China’s%20Arrival_Fina%l20Report.pdf.)
②Nina Hachigian, Michael Schiffer and Winny Chen,“AGlobal Imperative:AProgressive Approach to U.S.-ChinaRelations in the21stCentury”, August13,2008.
(http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2008/08/china_report.html.)
③Nina Hachigian, Winny Chen and Christopher Beddor, China’s New Engagement in the International System,November2009.(http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2009/11/pdf/chinas_new_engagement.pdf.)
④《账簿中国：美国智库透视中国崛起》，隆国强等译，中国发展出版社，2008年版，第132页。
⑤Nirav Patel,“The Strategic Environment of U.S-Sino Relations”, in Abraham Denmark and Nirav Patel (eds.),China’s Arrival: A Strategic Framework for a Global Relationship, September2009.
⑥Philip Bowring,“Who Needs Whom More?” New York Times, February3,2010.
⑦Suan L. Shirk, China: Fragile Superpower, p.109.
⑧David Shambaugh,“China Through the Looking Glass”, The National Interest, February29,2008.
⑨John-Mare F. Blanchard and Sujian Guo (eds.),“Harmonious World” and China’s New Foreign Policy (Lanham:Rowman and Littlefield-Lexington,2008), pp.3-4.
①Warren I. Cohen,“China and the West in Historical Perspective”, The Newsletter of Watchman Center of ForeignPolicy Research Institute, Vol.13, No.6,April2008.
②Kenneth D. Johnson,“China’s Strategic Culture: a Perspective for the United States”, Strategic Studies Institute,U.S.Army War College,2009.(http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/PUB924.pdf.)
④United States Institute of Peace, The QDR in Perspective: Meeting America’s National Security Needs In the21stCentury (Washington, D.C.: Institute of Peace), July29,2010, pp.59-60.
⑤Christopher J. Pehrson, String of Pearls: Meeting the Challenge of China’s Rising PowerAcross theAsian Littoral(Carlisle:ArmyWar College,2006), pp.2-3.
⑥Dan Blumenthal,“Sea Change in Pacific”, The American, March25,2009.(http://american.com/archive/2009/march-2009/sea-change-in-the-pacific.)
⑦Joe Studwell, The China Dream: The Elusive Quest for the Greatest Untapped Market on Earth (London: ProfileBooks,2002).
⑧Mark Leonard,“The Battle for China’s Future”.(http://markleonard.net/journalism/chinaft/.)
①David M. Lampton, The Three Faces of Chinese Power: Might, Money and Minds, p.274.
②Ralph Cossa, Brad Gloserman, Michael McDevitt (eds.),“The United States and the Asia-Pacific Region: SecurityStrategy for the Obama Administration”, CSIS Pacific Forum, February2009.
③Defense Strategic Guidance (DSG) of U.S.A., January5,2012.(http://www.defense.gov/news/Defense_Strategic_Guidance.pdf.)
④Christopher Layne,“Offshore Balancing Revisited”, The Washington Quarterly, Vo.25, No.2(Spring2002), p.235.
①John J. Mearsheimer,“The Future of the American Pacifier”, Foreign Affairs, Vol.80, No.5(September/October,2001), pp.48-50; Christopher Layne,“China’s Challenge to U.S. Hegemony”, Current History, January2008, p.15.
②Christopher Layne,“China’s Challenge to U.S. Hegemony”, p.15.
③Evan S. Medeiros,“Strategic Hedging and the Future of Asia-Pacific Stability”, The Washington Quarterly, Vol.29,No.1(Winter2005-2006), pp.145~167.
④Richard N. Haass,“The World thatAwaits”.(http://www.newsweek.com/id/165648/page/1.)
⑤Abraham M. Denmark,“China’sArrival:AFramework for a Global Relationship”, inAbraham M. Denmark andNirav Patel (eds.), China’s Arrival: a Strategic Framework for a Global Relationship, p.169.
①卡尔·施米特：《政治的概念》，刘宗坤等译，上海：上海人民出版社，2004年版，第107页。
②Charles Krauthammer,“WhyWe Must Contain China”, Time, July31,1995, pp.75-76.
①William Kristol,“Democracy in China: How About Promoting Democracy Instead of Engaging with Dictators?”Weekly Standard, June25,2001, p.11.
②Paul Wolfowitz, Statesmanship in the New Century (San Francisco, California: Present Dangers, Encounter Books,2002), p.324.
③George W. Bush, A Charge to Keep (Willian Morrow and Company Inc.,2004), pp.135-138.
④Stephen Mansfield, The Faith of George W. Bush (Penguin Group, Inc.,2004), p.59.
⑥Walter Russell Mead,“The Carter Syndrome”, Foreign Policy (January/February,2010), p.58.
①Barack Obama Inaugural Address, January20,2009.(http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/inaugural-address/.)
②Zbigniew Brzezinski,“From Hope to Audacity: Appraising Obama’s Foreign Policy”, Foreign Affairs(January/February,2010), p.18.
③Pew Research Center,“U.S. Image”.(http://pewglobal.org/database/?indicator=1&country=233.)
④Nicholas Kristof,“Make Diplomacy, Not War”, New York Times,August9,2008.
⑤Kenneth Bacon,“Letter to the Candidates: End the Militarization of Foreign Aid”, March13,2008.
⑦Dana Priest, The Mission: Waging War and Keeping Peace with America's Military (New York：W. W. Norton&Company,2003),1stEdition, p.14.
①Robert Gates,“ABalanced Strategy: Reprogramming the Pentagon for ANew Age”, Foreign Affairs(January/February,2009), p.27.
②Speech byAdmiral Mullen on U.S.-China Relations, July11,2011.
(http://iipdigital.usembassy.gov/st/english/texttrans/2011/07/20110712154723su0.2862622.html.)
③Hillary Rodham Clinton,“National Security&Foreign Policy Priorities in the FY2013InternationalAffairsBudget”, Testimony Before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Washington, D.C., February28,2012.(http://www.state.gov/secretary/rm/2012/02/184847.htm)
①Albert Weinberg, Manifest Destiny: A Study of Nationalist Expansionismin American History (Chicago:Quadrangle Books,1963), pp.74-75.
②斯蒂芬·曼斯菲尔德：《活出使命——布什总统的信仰》，林淑真译，北京：中国档案出版社，2006年版，第8页。
③David Gelernter, Americanism: The Fourth Great Western Religion (Washington D.C.: Doubleday,2007), p.4.
④Abraham Denmark and Nirav Patel (eds.),“China’s Arrival:AStrategic Framework for a Global Relationship”,Chapter6.
⑤The White House, The National Security Strategy of the United States of America, May2010, p.39.
⑥Financial SummaryTables: Fiscal Year2008; Financial SummaryTables: Fiscal Year2009; Financial SummaryTables: Fiscal Year2010.(http://www.defenselink.mil/comptroller/defbudget.)
①Robert S. Ross,“Myth in Here Be Dragons: Is China a Military Threat?” The National Interest, September/October,2009, p.31.
②Statement of Leon Panetta before the Senate Armed Service Committee (Washington, D.C.), June11,2011.(http://armed-services.senate.gov/Transcripts/2011/06%20June/11-47%20-%206-9-11.pdf.)
③Bob Woodward, Obama’s War (New York: Simon&Schuster,2010), pp.138-139,198-199,289,241,370.
①U.S. Department of Defense,“Quadrennial Defense Review Report2010”, pp.28-29.
②U.S. Department of Defense,“Annual Report to Congress:The Military Power of the P.R.C,2011”.(http://www. defense.gov/pubs/pdfs/China_Military_Power_Report_2011.pdf.)
③Office of the Director of National Intelligence,“The National Intelligence Strategy of the USA”.(http://www.dni.gov/reports/2009_NIS.pdf.)
⑤U.S. Department of Defense,“Annual Report to Congress:The Military Power of the P.R.C2009”, p. I.(http://www. defense.gov/pubs/pdfs/China_Military_Power_Report_2009.pdf.)
⑥Robert M. Gates,“ABalanced Strategy: Reprogramming the Pentagon for ANewAge”, p.33.
⑦转引自刘鹏，“奥巴马政府对华军事战略的两面性”，《国际资料信息》，2010年第8期，第2页。
⑧U.S. Department of Defense,“Quadrennial Defense Review Report2010”, pp.31-34.
⑨Joint Statement of William J. Perry and Stephen J. Hadley before the HouseArmed Services Committee Hearingon “Quadrennial Defense Review Independent Panel”(Washington, D.C.) July29,2010.
⑩U.S. Department of Defense, National Security Space Strategy, February4,2011.(http://www.defense.gov/home/features/2011/0111_nsss/.)
③Fred Bergsten,“Correcting the Chinese Exchange Rate:An Action Plan”, Statement Before the Committee onWays and Means, U.S. House of Representatives, March24,2010.
④Niall Ferguson,“The End of Chimerica:Amicable Divorce or Current War?” Statement Before the Committee onWays and Means, U.S. House of Representatives, March24,2010; also see: Niall Ferguson and Moritz Schularick,“The End of Chimerica”, Harvard Business School Working Paper10-037, October2009.
⑤Paul Krugman,“Chinese NewYear”, New York Times, December31,2009.(http://nytimes.com/2010/01/01/opinion/01krugman.html.)
⑦Robert Scott,“Unfair China Trade Costs Local Jobs”, Economic Policy Institute Briefing Paper, March23,2010, p.1.
⑧“Economic Report of the President”, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington2010, p.25.
⑨Hillary Clinton and Timothy Geithner,“ANew U.S. Dialogue with China”, The Wall Street Journal, July27,2009,p.A15.
⑩The White House, Office of Press Secretary,“Remarks by the President at the Export-Import Bank’sAnnualConference”, March11,2010.(http://www.whitehousr.gov/the-press-office/remarks-president-export-import-banks-annual-conference.)
①Barack Obama,“Exporting our Way to Stability”, New York Times, November5,2010.(http://www.nytimes.com.)
②Remarks by the President Obama in State of Union Address, January25,2012.
（http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/01/25/remarks-president-state-union-address.）在2012年3月1日美国贸易代表处向国会提交的《2012年贸易政策议程》（2012Trade PolicyAgenda）中再次重复了该出口翻番计划。
④巴拉克·奥巴马：《我们相信变革：巴拉克·奥巴马重塑美国未来希望之路》，孟宪波译，中信出版社，2009年版，第68页。
①据中国商务部统计，美国2009年对中国发起反倾销反补贴合并调查10起、单独反补贴调查2起、“337条款调查”8起、采取特别保障措施1起，涉案金额总共近80亿美元。见中国商务部：《2009年国别贸易投资环境报告·美国》,第152、167页。(http://gpjmofcom.gov.cn/accessory/201004/1271300015261.pdf.)
②这一波人事调整包括：国务院负责管理、资源的副国务卿雅各布·卢（Jacob Lew）接替彼得·欧尔萨格（PeterOrszag）任白宫行政管理和预算局局长，摩根大通银行中西部总裁威廉·戴利（William Daley）接替吉布斯
（Robert Gibbs）任白宫办公厅主任，基尼·斯珀林（Gene Sperling）接替萨默斯（Larry Summers）任国家经济委员会主任和总统首席经济顾问，等。
③Testimony of Treasury SecretaryTimothy F. Geithner,“China’s Currency Policies and the U.S.-China EconomicRelationship Before the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs and House Ways and Means Committees”.(http://www. treasury.gov/press/releases/tg858.htm.)
④阮建平、江涌，“双重‘再平衡’与美国对华政策调整”，《现代国际关系》，2010年第11期，第42页。
⑤中国美国经济学会、浦东美国经济研究中心：《全球经济失衡与中美经贸关系》，上海：上海社会科学院出版社，2007年版，第227页。
①Rebecca K.C. Hersman, Friends and Foes: How Congress and the President Really Make Foreign Policy(Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press,2000), p.2.
②罗伯特·沙特（Robert Sutter）先后在国会研究处、中央情报局、美国国务院等部门任东亚事务分析员，离开政府后任教于乔治城大学，2011年转入乔治·华盛顿大学。
③郝雨凡、张燕冬：《无形的手：与美国中国问题专家点评中美关系》，北京：新华出版社，2000年版，第389页。
④Joseph J. Schatz,“Duet With the Dragon”, CQ Weekly, June15,2009, p.1373.
⑤Howard J.Wiarda,“Foreign Policy without Illusion: How Foreign Policy-making Works in the United States”, inHoward J. Wiarda (ed.), On the Agenda: Current Issues and Conflicts in U.S. Foreign Policy (Little, Brown HigherEducation,1990), p.177.
①参见：Susan Webb Hammond, Congressional Caucus in National Policy Making (Baltimore: The Johns HopkinsUniversity Press,1998), p.116.
②U.S. Department of Defense,“Annual Report to Congress: Military and Security Developments Involving theP.R.C.,2010”.(http://www.defense.gov/pubs/pdfs/2010_CMPR_Final.pdf.); U.S. Department of Defense,“AnnualReport to Congress: Military and Security Developments Involving the P.R.C.,2011”.(http://www.defense.gov/pubs/pdfs/2011_cmpr_final.pdf.)
③The Final Report of the Quadrennial Defense Review Independent Panel,“The QDR in Perspective: MeetingAmerica’s National Security Needs in the21st Century”, Washington, DC: United States Institute of Peace,2010, pp.26,51-60.(http://www.usip.org/files/qdr/qdrreport.pdf.)
④Letter to President Obama, May26,2011.(http://menendez.senate.gov/newsroom/press/release/?id=07c1ba2e-c59d-4fff-b14d-1d6834b3a19d.)
①Nelson Report, July22,2011.
⑤参见张光，刁大明，袁婷：“美国国会议员访台现象研究”，《当代亚太》，2010年第3期，第67页。
⑥Jr. Richard Fenno, Congressmen in Committee (Boston: Little, Brown and Company,1973), p.1.
①“China Manipulates its Currency, Say130Congressmen”, March15,2010.(http://wallstreetpit.com/19954-china-manipulates-its-currency-say-130-congressmen.)
②“Bipartisan Group of Senators Unveils New Legislations to Crack Down on Unfair Currency Manipulation byCountries Like China”.(http://schumer.senate.gov/New_Website/Record.CEM?ID=323135.)
②Jim O’Neill,“Tough Talk on China Ignores Economic Reality”.(http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001032051/en.);Dan Newman and Frank Newman,“Hands off the Yuan”.(http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/03/16/hands_off_the_yuan.)
③李莉，“冷战后时期美国国会对华经贸议案的表决特点”，《现代国际关系》，2008年第4期，第20-21页。
④Congressional Record, H5219, June18,1987.Cease Engaging inActs of Cultural, Linguistic, and Religious Suppression DirectedAgainst the Uyghur People”,May21,2009.
(http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/z? c111:S.RES.155.)
①“Demolition of Kashgar’s Old City Draws Concerns Over Cultural Heritage Protection, Population Resettlement”,June17,2009.(http://www.uyghurcongress.org.)
②刘卫东，“美国国会对中国新疆问题的干涉”，《国际资料信息》，2010年第2期，第3页。
④Nelson Report, March3,2010.
⑤Miroslav Nincic，Democracy and Foreign Policy: The Fallacy of Political Realism (NewYork: ColumbiaUniversity Press,1992), pp.71-72.
⑥George Koo,“When Congress Demonizes China, Free Enterprise Suffers”, Chinese American Forum, Vol. XXI,No.1,2005, pp.39-40.
⑥堵芳芳，“2010年美国中期选举与中美关系”，第37页。
①John Evans,“HaveAmericansAttitudes Become More Polarized?An Update”, Social Science Quarterly, Vol.84,No.1,2003, p.73.
②Barbara Sinclair, Party Wars: Polarization and the Politics of National Policy Making (Norman, OK: University ofOklahoma Press,2006), p.3.
③Guide to Congress (Congressional Quarterly Inc.,1982),3rdEdition, p.90.
④杰里尔·罗赛蒂：《美国对外政策的政治学》，周启朋、傅耀祖译，北京：世界知识出版社，2005年版，第289页。
⑤彼得·海斯·格里斯，H.迈克尔·克劳森，“政治取向与美国对华政策”，《美国研究》，2008年第3期，第48页。
①Robert C. Grady: Restoring Real Representation (Chicago: University of Illinois Press,1993), p.163.
②Anne N. Costain and Andrew S. McFarland (eds.), Social Movement and American Political Institutions (Laham,Rowsman&Littlefield Publishers, Inc.,1993), pp.6-7.
③Bruce I. Newman, The Marketing of the Presidency: Political Marketing as Campaign Strategy (California: SagePublications,1994), p.12.
①Nelson Report, February17,2010.
②Dwight D. Eisenhower,“Military-Industrial Complex Speech”, January17,1961.(http://www.yele.edu/lawweb/avalon/presiden/speeches/eisenhower001.html.)
③Rodrigue Tremblay,“The Five Pillars of the U.S. Military-Industrial Complex”, September25,2006.(http://www.thenewamericanempire.com/author.html.)
④Richard F. Grimmett,“CRS Report for Congress: Conventional Arms Transfers to Developing Nations,2000-2007”, October23,2008.
⑤王志军，“美国军工复合体及其对中美关系的消极影响”，《上海交通大学学报(哲学社会科学版)》，2009年第4期，第29页。
⑥John Bellamy Foster, Hannah Holleman and Robert McChesney,“The U.S. Imperial Triangle and MilitarySpending”, Monthly Review, October10,2008.(http://monthlyreview.org/081001fooster-hol-leman-mcchesncy.php#volume.)
⑦US-Taiwan Business Council to Release Independent Analysis Report on “The Balance of Air Power in theTaiwan Strait”, May2010.(http://www.us-taiwan.org/pressrelease/2010may10reportonbalanceofairpowerintaiwanstrait.pdf.)
⑧Bob Cox,“For Lockheed Martin’s F16, a Dwindling List of Likely Buyers,” Fort Worth Star-Telegram,May29,2011.(http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2011/05/29/114949/for-lockheed-martins-f16-a-dwindling.html.)
⑨2009年3月8日，中国海监船只与美国海军“无瑕”号测量船（USNS Impeccable T-AGOS-23）在南海海域发
①Brendan McGarry,“2008MilitaryTimes Poll:Wary about Obama”, Army Times, January7,2009.(http://www.armytimes.com/news/2008/12/military_poll_main_122908/.)
②Mark P. Petracca (ed.): The Politics of Interests: Interest Groups Transformed (Boulder:Westview Press,1992), p.67.
③Amanda Bennett:“American Reporters in China: Romantics and Cynics”, in C.C. Lee (ed.), Voices of China: TheInterplay of Politics and Journalism(New York: Guilford Press,1990), p.266.
①李甜华，“2008年北京奥运会美国媒体上的中国形象——以《纽约时报》为例”，上海外国语大学硕士学位论文，2009年，第14页。
④托马斯·R·戴伊：《自上而下的政策制定》，菊方安、吴忧译，北京：中国人民大学出版社,，2002年版，第97页。
①熊志勇，“中美建交以来美国民意对中国认识的分析”，《国际论坛》，2010年9月（第12卷、第5期），第2-4页。
②The Chicago Council on GlobalAffairs,“Asia Soft Power Survey”.(http://www.thechicagocouncil.org/dynamic_page.php?id=75.)
③http://www.pollingreport.com.nations.htm;http://www.gallup.com/poll/115258/Canada-Remains-Americans-Favored-Nations.aspx.
④The Chicago Council on GlobalAffairs,“Constrained Internationalism:Adapting to New Realities, Results of a2010National Survey ofAmerican Public Opinion”(Chicago:The Chicago Council on Global Affairs,2010), pp.50-51.
⑥Lydia Saad,“U.S. Surpasses China in Forecast for Economic Powerhouse: Economic Confidence in U.S. SurgesAmong Democrats”, February16,2009(http://www.gallup.com/poll/114658/Surpasses-China-Forecast-Economic-Powerhouse.aspx.)
⑦ABC News/Washington Post Poll, February4-8,2010. See: John Pomfret and Jon Cohen,“Poll Shows Concernabout American Influence Waning as China’s Grows”, Washington Post, February25,2010, p. A11.
⑧U.S. Seen as Less Important, China as More Powerful, December3,2009.(http://people-press.org/report/569/americas-place-in-the-world.)转引自袁征：“美国民众如何看待当今中国”，《和平与发展》，2010年第6期，第42页。
⑨Lymar Morales,“Americans See Newer Threats on Par with Ongoing Conflicts”.(http://www.gallup.com/poll/117292/Americans-Newer-Threats-Par-Ongoing-Conflicts.aspx.)
①The Chicago Council on GlobalAffairs,“Constrained Internationalism,2010”, p.52.
②CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll, November13-15,2009.(http://www.pollingreport.com/china/htm.)
③CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll, June26-28,2009.(http://www.pollingreport.com/china.htm.)
④The Chicago Council on GlobalAffairs,“Constrained Internationalism,2010”, pp.30-31; CNN/Opinion ResearchCorporation Poll, November13-15,2009; CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll, February12-15,2010.
⑤GabrielA. Almond, The American People and Foreign Policy (New York: Harcourt, Brace,1950), p.55.
⑥The Chicago Council on GlobalAffairs,“Constrained Internationalism,2010”, p.17.
⑦CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll, February12-15,2010;The Chicago Council on GlobalAffairs,“Constrained Internationalism,2010”, p.52.
①沃尔特·李普曼：《公众舆论》，阎克文、江红译，上海：上海人民出版社，2002年版，第67页。
②塞缪尔·亨廷顿：《文明的冲突与世界秩序的重建》，周琪等译，北京：新华出版社，2005年版，第257页。
③约翰·伊肯伯里认为，冷战后美国外交政策体现为两大战略支柱：现实主义的政治安全战略和自由主义的经贸安全战略。John Ikenberry,“America’s Imperial Ambition”, Foreign Affairs（September/October2002）.
①Huang Jing,“The USA’s Asia-Pacific Strategy and the PolicyToward China Elution”, New Thinking, No.7,2007,p.47.
③Ashley J. Tellis,Andrew Marble and Travis Tanner (eds.), Asia’s Rising Powers and America’s Continued Purpose,10thAnniversary Edition (Seattle, WA, and Washington, D.C.:The National Bureau ofAsian Research,2010), p.61.
④James Przystup,“Asia-Pacific Region: National Interests and Strategic Imperatives”, Strategic Forum (Institute forNational Strategic Studies, National Defense University), No.239,April2009, pp.1-2.
⑤Peter Brookes,“Meeting the21stCentury Security Challenges inAsia”.(http://www.heritage.org.research/asiaandpacific/h193.cfm.)
③U.S. Department of Defense, Quadrennial Defense Review, September30,2001, p.4.
①Zalmay Khalilzad (et.al), The United States and Asia: Toward a New U.S. Strategies and Force Posture (SantaMonica: RAND Cooperation,2001).
②陈东晓，“布什政府亚太政策的调整”，《现代国际关系》，2005年第9期，第15页。
③Carlyle Thayer,“SoutheastAsia: Patterns of Security Cooperation”, ASPI Strategy，September2010（Australian:Strategic Policy Institute, p.36.
④Ralph A. Cossa,“Security Implications of Conflict in the South China Sea: Exploring Potential Triggers ofConflict”,APacific Forum CSIS Special Report, p.14.
⑤Oran Young，“Political Leadership and Regime Formation: on the Development of Institutions in InternationalSociety”，International Organizations, Vol.45, No.3(Summer1991), pp.281-308.
①Speech by Secretary Powell to U.S.Asia Pacific Council Symposium, April24,2003.(http://www.usembassy.it/file2003_04/alia/A3042409.htm.)
②Dennis C. Blair, and John T. Hanley Jr.,“From Wheels to Webs: ReconstructingAsia-Pacific SecurityArrangements”, The Washington Quarterly, Vol.24, No.1(Winter2001), p.11.
③Ralph A. Cossa,“The Major Powers in NortheastAsian Security”, McNair Paper51(Washington, DC: InstituteFor National Strategic Studies, National Defense University, August1996), p.54.
④Phillip P. Pan,“Rumsfeld Chides China for ‘Mixed Signals’”, Washington Post, October20,2005, pp. A16&A18.
⑤John D. Negroponte speech,“U.S. Policy in Asia: Meeting Opportunities and Challenges”, The BrookingsInstitution, July28,2008.
①James A. Kelly,“George W. Bush and Asia: An Assessment”, in Robert M. Hathaway and Wilson Lee (eds.),George W. Bush and East Asia: A First Term Assessment (Washington, DC: Woodrow Wilson International Centerfor Scholars,2005), pp.15-30.
②U.S. Department of Defense, Quadrennial Defense Review, February6,2006.
③Office of the Secretary of Defense,“Annual Report to Congress: Military Power of the People s Republic of China2006”.（http://www.defeselink.mil/pdfs/china_military_Report_06.pdf.）
④Office of the Secretary of Defense,“Annual Report to Congress: Military Power of the People s Republic of China2008”.（http://www.defeselink.mil/pdfs/china_military_Report_08.pdf.）
⑤Hillary Rodham Clinton,“U.S. and Asia: Two Transatlantic and Transpacific Powers”, Remarks at the AsiaSociety, New York, February13,2009.
⑥Kurt M. Campbell,“Principles of U.S. Engagement in the Asia-Pacific”, speech before the Subcommittee on EastAsian and PacificAffairs of Senate Foreign Relations Committee, January21,2010.
⑦Hillary R. Clinton,“Regional Architecture inAsia: Principles and Priorities”, Speech in Center-Jefferson Hall,Honolulu, Hawaii, January12,2010.(http://www.state.gov/secretary/rm/2010/01/135090.htm.)
①Hillary Rodham Clinton,“America's Pacific Century”, Foreign Policy, October11,2011.(http://www.state.gov/secretary/rm/2011/10/175215.htm.)
②Hillary Rodham Clinton,“America’s Engagement in the Asia-Pacific”, U.S. Department of State, October28,2010.(http://www.state.gov/secretary/rm/2010/10/150141.htm.)
③Barack Obama,“US-China Policy Under an ObamaAdministration”, China Brief (The American Chamber ofCommerce in China), Vol.16, No.8, October2008, p.13.
(http://www.amcham-china.org.cn/amcham/upload/wysiwyg/CB2008October/3-US-China_Policy_Under_a_Obama_Administration.pdf.)
①“日本自卫队与美澳韩进行战略协商”，日本《产经新闻》，2010年11月8日。
②Hillary Rodham Clinton,“America's Pacific Century”, Foreign Policy, October11,2011.
③Landler Mark,“Asia Trip Propels Clinton Back into Limelight”, New York Times, July24,2009.(http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/25/world/asia/25diplo.htm.)
④Hillary Rodham Clinton,“Developing a Comprehensive Partnership With Indonesia”, Remarks with IndonesianForeign Minister Noer Hassan Wirajuda, Jakarta, Indonesia, February18,2009.(http://www.state.gov/secretary/rm/2009a/02/119424.htm.)
⑤“ANewAsia-Pacific Strategy Report”, PacNet (The Pacific Forum, CSIS), No.20, March10,2009.(http://www.pacforum.org.)
①U.S. Department of Defense, Quadrennial Defense Review Report, February1,2010.
②Office of the Secretary of Defense,“Annual Report to Congress: Military and Security Developments Involvingthe People’s Republic of China”,August16,2010.(http://www.defeselink.mil/pdfs/china_military_Report_10.pdf.)
③Office of the Secretary of Defense,“Annual Report to Congress: Military and Security Developments Involvingthe People’s Republic of China”,August24,2011.(http://www.defeselink.mil/pdfs/china_military_Report_11.pdf.)
④Taylor Fravel,“China’s Search for Military Power”, The Washington Quarterly, Summer2008, p.136.
⑤Fareed Zakaria,“Hedged Bets on China”, Washington Post, November15,2010.
①Ralph Cossa, Brad Glosserman, Michael McDevitt, Nirav Patel, James Przystup, Brad Roberts,“The United Statesand the Asia-Pacific Region: Security Strategy for ObamaAdministration”, Ajoint report written by PacificForum-CSIS, Institute for DefenseAnalysis, Center for NavalAnalysis, Institute for National Strategic Studies,National Defense University and Center for NewAmerican Security, February2009.(http://www.csis.org/files/media/csis/pubs/issuesinsights_v09n01.pdf.)
②朱锋，“奥巴马政府对外战略调整：评估与展望”，《和平与发展》，2010年第1期，第3页。③TheAsia Foundation,“Americas’Role inAsia:Asian and American Views”,2008, p.128.
(http://asiafoundation. org/resources/pdfs/AmericasRoleinAsia2008.pdf.)
④Evan A. Feigenbaum and RobertA. Manning,“The United States in the NewAsia”, Council Special Report(Council on Foreign Relations), No.50, November2009.(http://www.cfr.org/publication/20446/united_states_in_the_new_asia.html.)
①日本外务省编，《外交青书》(第35号)，大藏省印刷局，1991年版，第429页。
②Stuart Harris,“US-Japan: Relations in the NewAsia-Pacific Order”, Paper to Conference on “The NewAsia-Pacific Order”, Institute of SoutheastAsia Studies, Singapore, May1995, p.14; Michael Mandelbaum.,“Davids’Friend Goliath”, Foreign Policy, January/February2006, p.56.
④Ralph Cossa and Brad Glosserman,“U.S.-Japan Defense Cooperation: Has Japan Become the Great Britain ofAsia?”Issues and Insights, No.3(March2005), p.15.
⑤Hillary Rodham Clinton,“Security and opportunities for the21stCentury”, Foreign Affairs, Vol.86, No.6(November/December2007), pp.6-13.
⑥Hillary Rodham Clinton,“Japan:ACornerstone of U. S. Foreign Policy”, Remarks with Japanese Foreign MinisterHirofumi Nakasone, Tokyo, February17,2009.（http://www.state.gov/secretary/rm/2009a/02/117465.htm.）
①Yukio Hatoyama,“ANew Path for Japan”, New York Times, August27,2009.(http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/27/opinion/27iht-edhatoyama.html.)
②Tobias Harris, Douglas Turner,“PartyTime in Tokyo--What a New Government Will Mean for Japan’s Future?”Foreign Affairs, September8,2009.
(http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/65415/tobias-harris-and-douglas-turner/party-time-in-tokyo.)
③Leif-Eric Easley, Tetsuo Kotan,“Electing a New Japanese Security Policy---Examining Foreign PolicyVisionswith in the Democratic Party of Japan”, Asia Policy, No.9(July2010), p.19.
⑤Mike M. Mochizuki and Michael O’Hanlon,“ALiberal Vision for the USA-Japan Alliance”, Survival, Vol.40, No.2(Summer1998), p.12.
⑥“The United States and Japan:Advancing Toward a Mature Partnership”, INSS Special Report (Washington, DC:National Defense University Press, October2000).(http://www.ndu.edu/inss/strforum/SR_01/SR_Iapan.htm.)
①Richard L.Armitage and Joseph S. Nye,“The U.S-JapanAlliance: GettingAsia Right Through2020”, CSIS(Washington, D.C.), February2007.(http://csis.org/files/media/csis/pubs/070216_asia2020.pdf.)
②Christopher B. Whitney and David Shambaugh,“Soft Power inAsia: Results of a2008Multinational Survey ofPublic Opinion (The Chicago Council on GlobalAffairs,2009), p.24; The Chicago Council on GlobalAffairs,“Anxious Americans Seek a New Direction in U.S. Foreign Policy Results of a2008Survey of Public Opinion”(TheChicago Council on Global Affairs,2009), pp.28-29.
⑤John J. Tkacik Jr,“TKACIK: China tests U.S.-Japan alliance”, Washington Times, October5,2010.
①Masaru Tamamoto,“The Emperor's New Cloths: Can Japan Live Without the Bomb?” World Policy Journal, Vol.26, No.3, Fall2009, p.6.
②2011年8月30野田佳彦当选日本新首相后，在9月6日CSIS举行的日美关系研讨会上，一位美国专家形容日本民主党的政策“就像一幅毕加索的油画，这里一个鼻子，那里一个耳朵，就实施有效管理而言，被分割开来了。见：Nelson Report, September6,2011.
④这里借用美利坚大学华人学者赵全胜描述中美关系的一个说法（见2006年第11期《中国评论》）。作者认为中日经济依赖深刻而安全领域互信不足的状态完全可以照此形容。
⑤David Lampton,“What Growing Chinese Power Means for America”, Testimony before Senate Committee onForeign Relations, June7,2005.
①Office of the President, The National Security Strategy of the United States of America, September2002.
①U.S. Department of Defense,“Indo-US Military Relationship: Expectations and Perceptions”, October1,2002.(http://dodreports.com/ada500476.)
②U.S. Department of Defense, Quadrennial Defense Review Report, February6,2006.
③Hillary Rodham Clinton,“America's Pacific Century”, Foreign Policy, October11,2011.
④Richard Boucher,“New Directions in US-India Relations”, U.S. Department of State Press Statement, June19,2001.(http://www.state.gov/p/sa/ci/in/3818pf.htm.)
⑤CalumMacLeod,“Obama packs much into9days in Asia”, US Today, November2,2010.(http://www.usatoday.com.)
⑥Government of India,“Reforming the National Security System: Recommendations of the Group of Ministers”.(New Delhi:2001).
⑦Gulshan Sachdeva,“India’s Strategic Thinking and its National Security Policy”, Asian Survey, Vol.41, No.3,2006,p.25.
⑧Vijay Obero (ed.), Army2020: Shape, Size, Structure and General Doctrine for Emerging Challenges (New Delhi:Knowledge World,2005), p.29.
①“China, Russia Differ on India’s Role in ‘Multi-polar’World”, Times of India,April28,1997.
②Chritopher J. Pehrson, String of Pearls: Meeting the Challenge of China’s Rising Power Across the Asian Littoral(Carlisle:ArmyWar College,2006), pp.3-4.
③Inaugural Address by Mr. Yashwant Sinha, India’s External Affairs Minister, at the Fifth Asian Security Conference,organized by the Institute for Defence Studies and Analysis, New Delhi, February4,2003.
④Yashwant Sinha,“India and the United States: Meeting the Challenge of the21st Century Together”, Remarks byIndian Minister for External Affairs, Brookings Institution, Washington, D.C., September10,2002.
⑤Richard N. Haass,“Indo-US TieAll about Cooperation, not Carping”, The Indian Express, January8,2003.
⑥Frankel and Harding (ed.), The India-China Relationship: Rivalry and Engagement (New Delhi: Oxford UniversityPress India,2004), p.337.
①张贵洪，“美印战略伙伴关系与中国：影响和对策”,《当代亚太》，2005年第5期，第32页。
②Stephen P. Cohen, India: Emerging Power (New Delhi: Oxford University Press India,2002), p.Ⅹ.
③AmitavAcharya,“There’s Room at the Top for Both India and China”, The Straits Times,April4,2005.
①但是随着美俄关系再度转冷，两国在伊朗问题上的斗争也愈加白热化。
②布热津斯基：《美国与俄罗斯》，《战略与管理》，2001年第1期，第45页．
③Timothy J. Colton and Michael McFaul,“America’s Real RussianAllies”, Foreign Affairs, Vol.80, Issue6(November/December2001), p.46.
④Office of the Secretary of Defense, Ballistic Missile Defense Review, February1,2010.(http://www.defense.gov/bmdr/docs/BMDR_101_MASTER_2_Feb.pdf.)
⑤杨雷，孔春雨，“美俄关系‘重启’前景分析”，《现代国际关系》，2010年第11期，第50页。
①维多利亚·潘菲洛娃，“输气管道把土库曼斯坦与中国相连链——北京将成为莫斯科在中亚的主要竞争对手”，(俄)《独立报》，2009年12月10日。
②伊利亚·克拉姆尼克，“中国的第五代战机”，俄新社，2010年12月31日莫斯科电。
③约瑟夫·奈：《美国霸权的困惑》，郑志国译，北京：世界知识出版社，2002年版，第27页。
④袁鹏，“美俄关系的变与不变——兼议美俄‘新冷战’说”，《外交评论》，2006年第5期，第31页。
⑤俄外交部：《俄罗斯联邦对外政策概论》。(http://www.russia.org.cn/extra/obzor.doc.)
②David J. Kramer,“Resetting U.S.-Russian Relations: It Takes Two”, The Washington Quarterly, Vol.33, Issue1,January2010, pp.61-79; Robert Legvold,“The Russia File: How to Move Toward a Strategic Partnership”, ForeignAffairs (July/August2009), pp.78-93.
③“Putin orders long-range bomber flights”, New York Times,August17,2007; Tony Halpin,“Russian navy arrives inVenezuela to21-gun salute”, Time, November26,2008.
④Peter Spiegel,“Biden Says Weakened Russia Will Bend to U.S.”, The Wall Street Journal, July25,2009, p. A1.
⑤Janusz Bugajski,“Cold Peace: Russia’s New Imperialism”(Praeger Pub Text, November2004), p.15
⑥“Security and Stability in CentralAsia: Differing Interests and Perspectives”, Summary of a Roundtable Held inNew York City with Policy Recommendations by the NCAFP, January9-10,2006.(http://www.ncafp.org/projects/RussiaCentralAsia/jan06_round.htm.)
①Lowell Dittmer,“The Strategic Triangle:ACritical Review”, in Ilpyong J. Kim (ed.), The Strategic Triangle:China，United States and the Soviet Union (NewYork: Paragon House Publisher,1987), p.34.
①兹比格纽·布热津斯基：《大棋局：美国的首要地位及其地缘战略》，中国国际问题研究所译，上海：上海人民出版社，1998年版，第55，63页。
④Assistant Secretary of State James A. Kelly’s Testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, March2,2004, The Washington File, March4,2004.
⑤International Crisis Group Report,“North Korea:Where Next for the Nuclear Talk?” Asia Report, No.87,November15,2004, Seoul/Brussels, p.14; Christopher Marquis,“Absent from the Korea Talks: Bush’s Hard-Liner”,New York Times, September2,2003.
①“朝鲜民主主义人民共和国外务省声明”，[朝]《劳动新闻》2009年4月15日，第4版。
③John D. Negroponte,“Annual Threat Assessment of the Director of National Intelligence for the Senate ArmedServices Committee”, February28,2006.(http://www.dni.gov/testimonies/20060228_testimony.htm.)
④朝鲜认为萨达姆政权的覆灭不是因为它有大规模杀伤性武器，而是因为它没有大规模杀伤性武器。见GlynFord,“North Korea on the Brink: Struggle for Survival”(London Ann Arbor, MI: Pluto Press,2008), pp.153-154.
⑤“Achieving Peace and Security in Korea and North EastAsia:ANew US Diplomatic StrategyToward NorthKorea”, TheAtlantic Council of the United States, Fbruary5,2009.(http://www.acus.org/publication/achieving-peace-and-security-korea-and-northeast-asia-new-us-diplomatic-strategy-toward.)
①虞少华，“危机下的朝核问题走向”，《国际问题研究》，2009年第5期，第34页。
②Clyde Prestowitz,“The Purpose ofAmerican Power in Asia”, Global Asia, Vol.2, No.2(Fall2007), p.13.
③“US President Barack Obama Urges North Korea to Give up Developing NuclearArms”, BBC News, August5,2009.(http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8186756.stm.)
①笔者与美海军战争学院副教授安德鲁·艾利克逊（Andrew S. Erickson）2010年10月8日在上海的访谈。
②Helene Cooper and Martin Fackler,“Obama’s PACIFIC Trip Encounters Rough Waters”, New York Times,November19,2009.
③U.S. Department of Defense, The United States Security Strategy for the East Asia-Pacific Region, November1998.
④Scott Snyder,“Pursuing a Comprehensive Vision for the US-South KoreaAlliance”, CSIS, Washington, DC, April2009.
⑤U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice’s Speech at Heritage Foundation, June19,2008.(http://blog.heritage.org/tag/condoleezza-rice/.)
⑥Bruce Klingner,“Transforming the US-South KoreanAlliance”, Backgrounder (The Heritage Foundation), No.2155, June30,2008; Kurt M. Campbell (et al.),“Going Global:The Future of the U.S.-South KoreaAlliance”,CNAS, Washington, DC, February2009.(http://www.cnas.org/files/documents/publications/CampbellPatel_Going%20Global_February09.pdf.)
⑦David Kang and Ji-Young Lee,“Japan-Korea Relations:The New Cold War inAsia?” Comparative Connections
(CSIS), Vol.12, No.4, January14,2011.(http://csis.org/files/publication/1004qjapan_korea.pdf.)
①Edward Cody,“Improved Atmosphere is Seen as N. Korea Arms Talks Resume”, Washington Post, July27,2005,p. A16.
②International Crisis Group,“North Korea under Tightening Sanctions”, Asia Briefing, No.101, Seoul/Brussels,March15,2010.
③Blaine Harden,“ResistanceAgainst North Korean Regime Taking Root: Survey Suggests”, Washington Post,March24,2010.(http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/03/23/AR2010032304035.html?wpisrc=nl_headline.）
①郑佑相、安勇炫：《北韩脱轨?金正日独裁体制或动摇》，（韩）《朝鲜日报》，2010年12月11日。
②Scott A. Snyder (et al.),“U.S. Policy Toward the Korean Peninsula”, Council on Foreign Relations Task ForceReport, June2010.(http://www.cfr.org/north-korea/us-policy-toward-korean-peninsula/p22205.)
③Aidan Foster-Carter,“‘We have nukes’: The Six-Party Failure”, Asia Times, February11,2005.(http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Korea/GB11Dg05.html.)
④Victor D. Cha,“Strategic Logic on the Korean Peninsula Headed Toward War”, The Chosunilbo, December7,2010.(http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2010/12/06/2010120600991.html.)
⑤Selig S. Harrison,“Living with a Nuclear N. Korea:Will North Korea Ever Give up its Nuclear Weapons?” PolicyForum Online09-015A, February24,2009.(http://nautilus.org/publications/essays/napsnet/forum/2009-2010/09015Harrison.html.);Leon V. Sigal,“What Obama Should Offer North Korea”, January28,2009.(http://www.thebulletin.org/web-edition/op-eds/what-obama-should-offer-north-korea.)
①Anthony Faiola,“US, Japan Worry about N. Korean Withdraw From Talks”, Washington Post, February20,2005,p. A30.
②Scott Synder,“China-Korea Relations: Year of China-DPRK Friendship, North’s Rocket Fizzles”, ComparativeConnections (Pacific Forum of CSIS), April2009.
③2010年5月3日笔者与美国海军战争学院Jonathan Pollack教授的谈话记录。
④汪伟民、李辛，“美韩同盟再定义与韩国的战略选择：进程与争论”，《当代亚太》，2011年第2期，第125页。
①扎勒米·哈利勒扎德等：《美国与亚洲——美国新战略和兵力态势》，北京：新华出版社，2001年版，第42页。
②Victor D. Cha, Alignment Despite Antagonism: The United States-Korean-Japan Security Triangle (Stanford:Stanford University Press),1999, p.36.
③Victor Cha and Ilkwon Kim,“China’s Rise, the Changing NortheastAsian Security Environment, and theU.S.-ROK Strategic Response”, An Interview with Victor Cha, December22,2010.
(http://csis.org/publication/chinas-rise-changing-northeast-asian-security-environment-and-us-rok-strategic-response.)
④Dennis C. Blair and John T. Hanley Jr.,“From Wheels to Webs: ReconstructingAsia-Pacific SecurityArrangements”, The Washington Quarterly, Vol.24, No.1(Winter2001), p.9.
⑤Ralph A. Cossa,“Pyongyang Raises the Stakes”, PacNet6(Pacific Forum of CSIS), February10,2005.(http://csis.org/publication/pacnet-06-february-10-2005-pyongyang-raises-stakes.)
⑥Charles Pritchard,“Failed Diplomacy:The Tragic Story of How North Korea Got the Bomb”, BrookingsInstitution Press, July17,2007.(http://www.brookings.edu/press/Books/2007/faileddiplomacy.aspx.)
①金大中：《建设和平与民主》，北京：世界知识出版社，1991年版，第183页。
②Adam Liff,“U.S. Policy toward North Korea:The China Fallacy”, PacNet67(Pacific Forum of CSIS), October8,2009.(http://csis.org/files/publication/pac0967.pdf.)
①John Duffield,“Why is There NoAPTO? Why is There No OSCAP?Asia-Pacific Security Institutions inComparative Perspective”, Contemporary Security Policy, Vol.22, No.2(August2001), pp.85-86.
②Van Evera,“Primed for Peace: Europe After the Cold War”, International Security, Vol.15, No.3(Winter1990/1991), pp.57-72; Aaron L. Friedberg,“Ripe for Rivalry: Prospects for Peace in a Multi-polar Asia”,International Security, Vol.18, No.3(Winter1993/94), pp.29-33; John Duffield,“Asia-Pacific Security Institutionsin Comparative Perspective”, in Ikenberry and Mastanduno (eds.), International Relations Theory and the AsiaPacific (New York: Columbia University Press,2003), pp.243-270.
③代表观点见：Richard Betts,“Wealth, Power, and Instability: East Asia and the United States after the Cold War”,International Security, Vol.18, No.3, pp.34-77; Gerald Segal,“East Asia and the Constrainment of China”,International Security, Vol.20, No.4, pp.107-135, etc.
④John Mearsheimer,“The Future of the American Pacifier”, Foreign Affairs, Vol.80, No.5(July/August2001), pp.46-61.
⑤Stephen W. Walt, The Origins of Alliance (Ithaca: Cornell University Press,1968).
⑥Randall L. Schweller,“Bandwagoning for Profit: Bringing the Revisionist State Back In”, American Journal ofPolitical Science, Vol.35, No.4,1991; Randall L. Schweller,“Unanswered Threats”, International Security, Vol.29,No.2,2004.
⑦Michael Mastanduno,“Incomplete Hegemony: The United States and Security Order in Asia”, in MuthiahAlagappa (ed.), Managing Security in Asia (Stanford University Press,2002), pp.151-157; Thomas Christensen,“China, the U.S.-Japan Alliance, and the Security Dilemma in East Asia”, International Security, Vol.23, No.4, pp.49-80.
①David C. Kang,“Getting Asia Wrong: The Need for New Analytical Frameworks”, International Security, Vol.27,No.4（Spring2003）, pp.57-85.
②Amitav Acharya,“Will Asia’s Past Be Its Future?” International Security, Vol.28, No.3, pp.149-164.
③Alan Dupont,“Living with the Dragon:WhyAustralia Needs a China Strategy”, Lowy Institute for InternationalPolicy, June2011, p.7.
④Media Alert: Lowy Institute poll results, Sydney, Lowy Institute for International Policy, April27,2011.
⑤Robert S. Ross,“The Geography of the Peace: East Asia in the Twenty-First Century”, International Security, Vol.23,No.4(Spring1999), pp.81-84.
⑥Thomas Christensen,“Posing Problems Without Catching Up: China’s Rise and the Challenges for U.S. SecurityPolicy”，International Security, Vol.25, No.4(Spring200l), pp.7-12.
⑦Alan Dupont,“Living with the Dragon:WhyAustralia Needs a China Strategy”, p.9.
⑧肯尼斯·沃尔兹有一句名言：“国际政治的一般理论必然着眼于大国关系。” Kenneth N. Waltz, Theory ofInternational Politics (Reading, Mass: Addison-Wesley,1979), p.73.
⑨Susan Shirk,“Asia-Pacific Regional Security: Balance of Power or Concert of Power?” In David Lake and PatrickMorgan (eds.), Regional Order: Building Security in a New World (University Park: Penn State University Press,1997), pp.245-270.
⑩Francis Fukuyama,“Re-Envisioning Asia”, Foreign Affairs, Vol.84, No.1(January/February2005), pp.75-87.
①Seng Tan and Ralph A. Cossa,“Rescuing Realism from the Realists: A Theoretical Note on East Asian Security”,in Sheldon W. Simon (ed.), The Many Faces of Asian Security (Lanham, Md.: Rowman&Littlefield Publishers, Inc.,August28,2001), p.33.
②陈寒溪，孙学峰：“东亚安全合作的现实与前景——观点的分歧及其分析”，《世界经济与政治》，2008年第3期。(http://www.irchina.org/news/view.asp?id=1609.)
③Evan Feigenbaum and Robert Manning,“The United States in the NewAsia”, p.4.
④Barack Obama,“RenewingAmerican Leadership”, Foreign Affairs, Vol.86, No.4(July/August2007), p.42.
①Hillary Clinton,“RegionalArchitecture inAsia: Principle and Priorities”, January12,2010.
②约翰·鲁杰：《对作为制度的多边主义的剖析》，苏长和等译，杭州：浙江人民出版社，2003年版。
③Amitav Acharya,“How Ideas Spread: Whose Norms Matter? Norm Localization and Institutional Change in AsianRegionalism”, International Organization, Vol.58, No.2(Spring2004), pp.239-241.
④Evan Feigenbaum and Robert Manning,“The United States in the New Asia”, p.5.
⑤National Security Strategy of the United States, May2010, p.43.
①Thomas Nides, Remarks at theAPCAC U.S.-Asia Business Summit, Tokyo, Japan, March1,2012.(http://www.state.gov/s/dmr/remarks/2012/185056.htm.)
②Antony Lake and George Shultz,“The Princeton Project on National Security: Forging a World of Liberty UnderLaw—US National Security on the21stCentury”, September27,2006.(http://www.princeton.edu/~ppns/papers/interagencyQNSR.pdf.)
③David Boaz (ed.),“Relations with China, India, and Russia”, in Cato Handbook for Policymakers,7thEdition(Washington, D.C.: Cato Institute,2009), Chap.53.(http://www.cato.org/pubs/handbook/hb111/hb111-53.pdf.)
④Kurt M. Campbell, Nirav Patel and Vikram J. Singh, The Power of Balance: America in Asia (Washington, D.C.:Center for a NewAmerican Security), June2008.(http://www.cnas.org/node/118.)
⑤Robert Jervis,“Security Regime”, in Stephen D. Krasner (ed.), International Regimes (Ithaca: Cornell UniversityPress,1983), pp.176-177.
①David Shambaugh (ed.), Power Shift: China andAsia’s New Dynamics (University of California Press,2006), pp.12-19.
②BenjaminA. Shobert,“USAnti-China Rhetoric at Danger Lever”, Asia Time Online, July8,2010,
③Elizabeth C. Economy,“The Game Change”, Foreign Affairs, Vol.89, No.6(November/December2010).
④“Strategic Reassurance”, The Economist, December2,2010, p.15.
⑤Evelyn Goh,“Southeast Asia on the China Challenge”, The Journal of Strategic Studies, Vol.30, No.4-5,2007, p.812.
⑥Surin Pitsuwan,“America s Role inAsia: Recommendations from Both Sides of the Pacific”, December16,2008.(http://www.asiafoundation.or.kr/document/ARA%20Seoul/NEA.pdf.)
⑦Fareed Zakaria,“The US Can Out-Charm China”, Newsweek, December12,2005.
①Michael Leifer, The ASEAN Regional Forum,Adelphia Paper of302(Oxford University Press,1996), London:International Institute for Strategic Studies, p.57.
②亨利·基辛格：《美国需要外交政策吗？》，胡利平译，北京：中国友谊出版公司，2003年版，第121-122页。
①Hillary Rodham Clinton,“America's Pacific Century”, Remarks at East-West Center (Honolulu, HI), November10,2011.
③Ralph Cossa, Brad Glosserman, Michael McDevitt, Nirav Patel, James Przystup, Brad Roberts,“The United Statesand the Asia-Pacific Region: Security Strategy for ObamaAdministration”, p.38.
④Douglas H. Paal,“Obama toAsia:The United States is back”, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace WebCommentary, November6,2009.(http://carnegieendowment.org/2009/11/06/obama-to-asia-united-states-is-back/60l.)
⑤Peter W. Rodman, The Emerging Pattern of Geopolitics (Carlisle: Army War College,2007), p.12.
①The Bipartisan Commission on America’s National Interests, America’s National Interests (Washington, D.C.), July1996.(http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/americas_interests.pdf.)
②赖怡忠，“欧巴马时代的美国-亚太关系展望”，《台湾国际研究季刊》（台北），第5卷，第1期，第63页。
①Evan S. Medeiros,“China’s International Behavior: Activism, Opportunism and Diversification”, Project Air Force,DAND,2009.(http://rand.org/pubs/monogtaphs/2009/RAND_MG850.pdf.)
②Fareed Zakaria,“WhyWashington Worries”, Newsweek, March14,2009.(http://www.fareedzakaria.com/articles/news-week/031409.html.)
③William J. Burns, Keynote Remarks at5th Biennial U.S.-China Relations Conference, TexasA&M University,October24,2011.(http://www.thechinatimes.com/online/2011/10/1747.html.)
④Hillary Rodham Clinton,“America's Pacific Century”, Remarks at East-West Center (Honolulu, HI), October11,2011.(http://www.state.gov/secretary/rm/2011/11/176999.htm.)
⑤Joseph R. Biden Jr.,“China’s Rise Isn’t Our Demise”, New York Times, September8,2011.(http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/08/opinion/chinas-rise-isnt-our-demise.html.)
⑥William J. Burns, Keynote Remarks at5th Biennial U.S.-China Relations Conference.
⑦Hillary Rodham Clinton,“America's Pacific Century”.
①William J. Burns, Keynote Remarks at5th Biennial U.S.-China Relations Conference.
②Hillary Rodham Clinton,“America's Pacific Century”.
③Joseph S. Nye, Jr., Understanding International Conflicts (NewYork: Longman,2000),3rdEditions, p.219.
④Remarks of Senator Barack Obama to the Chicago Council on GlobalAffairs April23,2007.(http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/fpccga/.)
⑤Remarks by the U.S. President Obama to the United Nations GeneralAssembly, NewYork, September23,2009.(http://www.whitehouse.gov/the_press_office/remarks-by-the-president-to-the-united-nations-general-assembly.)
⑥Anne-Marie Slaughter, Preface, in “ANational Strategic Narrative”, Special Report, The Woodrow WilsonInternational Center for Scholars,April2011, p.3.(http://www.wilsoncenter.org/events/docs/A%20National%20Strategic%20Narrative.pdf.)
⑦HenryA. Kissinger,“Rebalancing Relations with China”, Washington Post, August19,2009.
⑧HenryA. Kissinger,“Power Shifts and Security”, Keynote Address at the8th IISS Global Strategic ReviewConference:“Global Security Governance and the Emerging Distribution of Power”, Geneva, September10,2010.(http://www.iiss.org/conferences/global-strategic-review/global-strategic-review-2010/plenary-sessions-and-speeches-2010/keynote-address/henry-kissinger/); Anne-Marie Slaughter,“America’s Edge: Power in the Networked Century”,Foreign Affairs, January/February2009.(http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/63722/anne-marie-slaughter/americas-edge.)
①杨洁勉，“浅析奥巴马政府的全球战略调整”，《国际问题研究》，2011年第2期，第19页。
②“伙伴能力建设”最早出现在小布什时期的2006年“四年防务评估”报告中，但主要局限于军事领域，在单边主义和扩张主义思潮下也没有得到充分重视。奥巴马上台后，把“伙伴能力建设”作为美国外交战略的新方向，帮助重要盟友和地区伙伴建设军事和安全力量是美国领导战略的柱石。参见：Robert M. Gates,“Helping OthersDefend Themselves:The Future of U.S. SecurityAssistance”, Foreign Affairs (May/June2010), pp.2-6.
③Hillary Rodham Clinton’s Remarks on the National Security Strategy, The Brookings Institute (Washington, DC.),May27,2010.(http://www.state.gov/secretary/rm/2010/05/142312.htm.)
④美国学者扎卡里亚认为，中国的崛起走了一条不同于西方的务实的现代化道路，既没有挑战也没有拒绝现行国际秩序，而是在融入的同时按照自己的利益诉求重塑（reshape）这一体系。Fareed Zakaria, ThePost-American World,pp.36,88-89.
①约翰·伊肯伯里：《地区秩序变革的四大核心议题》，《国际政治研究》，2011年第1期，第8页。
②Antony Lake and George Shultz,“The Princeton Project on National Security: Forging a World of Liberty UnderLaw—U.S. National Security on the21stCentury”, The Woodrow Wilson School of Public and InternationalAffairs,Princeton University, September27,2006, pp.9-10;Abraham Denmark and Nirav Patel (eds.), China’s Arrival: AStrategic Framework for a Global Relationship, Center for a NewAmerican Security, September2009.
③“Post-midterms, Obama to Focus on Foreign Policy in Four-nation Asian Trip”, Washington Post, November4,2010.
④周琪，《意识形态与美国外交政策》，上海：上海人民出版社，2006年版，第18页。
⑤David McLean,“American Nationalism the China Myth, and the Truman Doctrine:The Question ofAccommodation with Peking <1949-1950>”, Diplomatic History, Vol.10, No.1, p.26.
⑥华裔学者相蓝欣在2007年8月出版的著作《传统与对外关系》（三联出版社）中持这样一个观点，即当今中美关系的最大症结不在于实力冲突，而在于美国人总觉得中国人没有按照他们的路子走。不少美国学者也认为2010年以来美中关系的波折与美国对中国产生了“幻灭感”(disillusionment)有关。
⑦Robert Sutter,“Assessing China’s Rise and US leadership in Asia: Growing Maturity and Balance”, Journal ofContemporary China, Vol.19, Issue65(June2010), pp.591-604.
⑧Michael Green,“Constructing a Successful China Strategy, Promote Balance and Democratic Ideals in Asia”.(http://www.brookings.edu/~media/Files/Projects/Opportunity08/Factsheet_China.pdf.)
②Carola McGiffert (ed.),“Chinese Soft Power and Its Implications for the United States: Competition andCooperation in Developing World”,AReport of the CSIS Smart Power Initiative, March2009, pp. V-VI.(http://www.csis.org/files/meida/csispubs/090305_mcgiffert_chinesesoftpower_eb/pdf.)
③Sheng Ding,“To Build ‘a Harmonious World’: China’s Soft Power Wielding in the Global South”, Journal ofChinese Political Science, Vol.13, No.2(Spring2008), p.198.
④Carlyle Thayer,“Southeast Asia: Patterns of Security Cooperation”, ASPI Strategy (Australian: Strategic PolicyInstitute), September2010, p.3.
⑤Joseph S. Nye, Jr.,“The Rise of China’s Soft Power”, The Wall Street Journal Asia, December29,2005; DavidShambaugh,“Beijing Charms its Neighbors”, International Herald Tribune, May14,2005; Edward Friedman,“China’s Rise, Asia’s Future”, Journal of East Asian Studies, Vol.6, Issue2(May-August2006); Bates Gill andYanzhong Huang,“Sources and Limits of Chinese Soft Power,”Survival, Vol.48, No.2(Summer2006); JoshuaKurlantzick, Charm Offensive: How China’s Soft Power in Transforming the World (Yale University Press,2007),etc.另外，美国国会研究处也有几份专题报告：“China’s Foreign Policy and ‘Soft Power’ in South America, Asiaand Africa, March2008; Mark E. Manyin (et al),“U.S. Accession to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations’Treaty of Amity and Cooperation (TAC)”, Congressional Research Service, July13,2009, etc.
⑦奥巴马政府提出要纠正亚太政策中亚洲部分与太平洋部分不平衡的做法，加强对后者的投入，为此开设“太平洋岛国论坛”，讨论美国与太平洋岛国伙伴在应对气候变化、流行疾病和环境退化等问题上的合作，并重新开设了美国国际开发署（USAID）办事处来落实合作和援助计划。参见：Hillary Rodham Clinton,“America'sPacific Century”, Remarks at East-West Center (Honolulu, HI), November10,2011.
①Daniel Ten Kate,“U.S. Strengthens SoutheastAsia Ties, Playing Catch-up to China”, July23,2009.(http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=aHDOIOLNMPM.)
②“Soft Power inAsia: China Still Lags the United States in Soft Power inAsia”, Results of a2008MultinationalSurvey of Public Opinion.(http://www.thechicagocouncil.org/UserFiles/File/POS_Topline%20Reports/Asia%20Soft%20Power%202008/Chicago%20Counci%l20Soft%20Power%20Report-%20Fina%l206-11-08.pdf.)
③David Shambaugh and Thomas Wright,“Asia Still LikesAmerica”, International Herald Tribune, February17,2009.
④Jacob J. Lew,“Positioning the State Department toAchieve the ObamaAdministration’s Foreign Policy Goal”, TheAmbassadors Review, Spring2009, pp.10-11.
⑤Michelle Levi,“Gates Calls TwitterAHuge StrategicAsset”, CBS News, June18,2009.(http://oaktree.cbsnews.com/blogs/2009/06/18/politics/politicalhotsheet/entry5096183.shtml.); Jason Liebman,“Facebook, Twitter and YouTube Are Tools For Diplomacy”, The Huffington Post, January8,2010
⑧Hillary Rodham Clinton,“Remarks on Internet Freedom”, The Newseum, Washington, D.C., January21,2010.(http://www.state.gov/secretary/rm/2010/01/135519.htm.)
①Craig S. Cohen, Introduction,“Capacity and Resolve: Foreign Assessments of U.S. Power”, CSIS, April2011, p.XI.
②这里借用约瑟夫·奈划分力量格局的“三维棋盘”概念：最上层也就是第一维度是军事实力，第二维是经济实力，第三维是比较分散的软实力和其它跨国关系和非政府力量。参见：Joseph S. Nye,“RecoveringAmericanLeadership”, Survival, Vol.50, Issue1(February/March2008), p.59.
③Irving Kristol,“The Map of the World Has Changed”, The Wall Street Journal, January3,1990; Irving Kristol,“InSearch of Our National Interest”, Wall Street Journal, June7,1990.
④Anne-Marie Slaughter, Preface, in “ANational Strategic Narrative”, The Woodrow Wilson International Center forScholars, April2011, p.3.(http://www.wilsoncenter.org/events/docs/A%20National%20Strategic%20Narrative.pdf.)
①A. F. K. Organski, World Politics (New York:Alfred A. Knopf,1968),2ndEdition, p.343; Charles F. Doran andWes Parsons,“War and the Cycle of Relative Power”, The American Political Science Review, No.4,1980, p.948.
②A. F. K. Organski, World Politics, p.123;A. F. K. Organsky and Jacek Kugler, The War Ledger (NewYork:AlfredA. Knopf,1980), pp.42-45.
③朱锋，“‘权力转移’理论：霸权性现实主义?”《国际政治研究》，2006年第3期，第38页。本段论述亦部分参考此文。
④Organsky and J Kugler, The War Ledger, pp.50-52.
⑤A. F. K. Organski, World Politics, pp.313-320; Organski and Kugler, The War Ledger, pp.19,23; Woosang Kimand James D. Morrow,“When Do Power Shifts Lead to War?” American Journal of Political Science, Vol.36, No.4
(November1992), pp.896-922; Douglas Lemke and Jacek Kugler,“The Evolution of the Power TransitionPerspective”, in Jecek Kugler and David Lemke (eds.), Parity and War: Evaluations and Extensions of “The WarLedger”(Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press,1996), p.21.
⑥Jack S. Levy,“Declining Power and the Preventive Motivation for War”, World Politics, Vol.40, No.1(October1987),pp.82-107.
⑦Glenn H. Snyder,“Process Variables in Neorealist Theory”, Security Studies, Vol.5, No.1(Spring1996), pp.167-192.
⑧Paul Diesing and Snyder Glenn, Conflict Among Nations: Bargaining, Decision Making, and System Structure inInternational Crisis (Princeton, NY: Princeton University Press,1977).转引自朱锋，“‘权力转移’理论：霸权性现实主义?”第40页。
①Alexander George,“From Conflict to Peace: Stages along the Road”, United States Institute of Peace Journal, Vol.5,No.6(December1992).
②Charles Kupchan (et al), Power in Transition: The Peaceful Change of International Order (New York:The UnitedNations University,2001), pp.8-9.
③Ronald L. Tammen (et al.), Power Transitions: Strategies for the21st Century (New York: Chatham HousePublishers,2000), p.31.
④James Mann,“Behold China”, The New Republic,April8,2010; Melinda Liu,“U.S. of Who?” Newsweek,February15,2010, p.25; Joseph Nye,“China Seems to Have Made Wrong Call on Its Relations with US,” May17,2010.(http://news. scotsman.com/comment/Joseph-Nye-China-seems-to.6157294.jp.)
⑤Yan Xuetong,“The Instability of China-US Relations”, The Chinese Journal of International Politics, Vol.3, No.3,2010, pp.263-292.
⑥袁鹏，“对中美关系未来发展的战略思考”，《现代国际关系》2010年庆典特刊，第67页。
①Stapleton Roy,“An Overview of Potential for U.S.-China Strategic Cooperation and How to Manage theDifferences”, in in Donald S. Zagoria (ed.), Sweet and Sour I: Candid Talks to Improve U.S.-China Relations, p.3.(http://ncafp.org/cms/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/SweetandSour.pdf.)
②有关区域层次的权力转移论述请见：Douglas Lemke and Suzanne Werner,“Power Parity, Commitment toChange, and War”; Douglas Lemke and Jacek Kugler,“The Evolution of the Power Transition Perspective”, in JacekKugler and Douglas Lemke (eds.), Parity and War: Evaluations and Extensions of “The War Ledger”, pp.3-12,25-33.
③Bonnie Glaser,“Shifting Balance: ChineseAssessments of U.S. Power”, in “Capacity and Resolve: ForeignAssessments of U.S. Power”, Special Report, CSIS, April2011, pp.3,14-16.
④Edward H. Carr, Twenty Years Crisis,1919-1939: An Introduction to the Study of International Relations (NewYork: Harperand Row,1964),2ndedition, pp.215-218.
⑤权力转移理论中，有一种“民主世系”（democratic lineage）观点认为民主国家之间的权力转移可以避免战争，比如19世纪末的英国之于美国，但中国不在其列，故其崛起的前景仍是不确定的。参见：William R. Thompson,Great Power Rivalries (Columbia, South Carolina: University of South Carolina Press,1999), pp.216-217; RobertKagan,“The Illusion of ‘Managing’ China”, Washington Post, May15,2005, p. B07.
①Joseph S. Nye, Jr., The Future of Power (NewYork: PublicAffairs,2011), pp.203-204.
②科学的研究理论一般需具备硬核（hard core）、保护带（protective belt）、正面启发（positive heuristic）和负面启发（negative heuristic）四个核心要素，硬核就是理论的内核，由理论的基本假定、核心概念以及对因果关系的解释构成，保护带（protective belt）则由一些辅助性的假设组成。参见：[英]伊姆雷·拉卡托斯：《科学研究纲领方法论》，兰征译，上海：上海译文出版社，2005年，第56-58页。
③Edward Carr,“The Dangers of a Rising China”, The Economist, December2010, p.A14.
④Robert Cox,“State, Social Force and World Order”, in Robert Keohane (ed.), Neorealism and Its Critics(Columbia: Columbia University Press,1986), pp.212-213.
①James E. Goodby and Kenneth Wesbrode,“Bush Should Seize His Chance to Recast U.S. Ties with China”,International Herald Tribune, September21,2001.
②G. John Ikenberry,“The Rise of China and the Future of the West: Can the Liberal System Survive?” ForeignAffairs, Volume87, No.1(January/February2008), pp.27-30.
③Robert Dahl,“The Concept of Power”, Behavioral Science, Vol.2, No.3(July1957), p.203.
④苏长和，“中国模式与世界秩序”，《中国外交》，2009年第12期，第18页。
⑤Fareed Zakaria,“The Future ofAmerican Power: How America Can Survive the Rise of the Rest”, Foreign Affairs,Vol.87, No.3,2008, p.43.
⑥US Vice-President Joe Biden Speaks on U.S.-China Relations, Sichuan University, August22,2011.(http://www.whitehouse.gov/photos-and-video/video/2011/08/22/vice-president-joe-biden-speaks-us-china-relations.)
⑦Michael Wesley,“Critical Thinking Needed to Bolster Ties with Asia”, The Australian,April30,2007.
①袁鹏，“中美关系向何处去？”《中国外交》，2010年第11期，第39页。
①U.S. Ambassador to China Gary Locke Address to Students and Faculty Beijing Foreign Studies University,September9,2011.(http://iipdigital.usembassy.gov/st/english/texttrans/2011/09/20110909104329su0.3182751.html.)
④Robert Kagan and Dan Blumenthal,“‘Strategic reassurance’ that isn’t”, Washington Post, November10,2009.(http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/11/09/AR2009110902793.html); Willy Lam,“Reassurance or Appeasement”, Far Eastern Economic Review, Vol.172, No.9(November2009), pp.12-15.
⑤Kelly Currie,“The Doctrine of “Strategic Reassurance’”, Wall Street Journal Asia, October22,2009.(http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704224004574488292885761628.html.)
⑥Ruth Marcus,“President Obama Is Making Nobody Happy”, Washington Post, April3,2010.
①James Steinberg,“The United States and China:Visions of Global Order”, Remarks to the8th IISS GlobalStrategic Review Conference “Global security governance and the emerging distribution of power”, Geneva,September11,2010.(http://www.iiss.org/conferences/global-strategic-review/global-strategic-review-2010/plenary-sessions-and-speeches-2010/first-plenary-session/james-b-steinberg/.)
②傅立民，“对中美关系变化的展望”，《美国研究》，2009年第1期，第8页。
③这一关系的特点是国家间交往渠道多样化、军事力量作用下降和缺乏主导性议题（经济、军事、政治因素没有一个能主导中美关系的全局）。在复合相互依赖中，共同利益和利益冲突同样突出，和谐不是相互依赖的产物，合作与冲突并存才是相互依赖的结果。参见：Robert O. Keohane and Joseph S. Ney, Power andInterdependence: World Politics in Transition (Little, Brown and Company,1977), pp.8-9;牛新春，“中美关系：依赖性与脆弱性”，《中国外交》，2009年第12期，第46-47页。
④Ian Bremmer,“Fight of the Century: Worse Than the Cold War?” Prospect, April2010, p.39; Jim Hoagland,“TheLukewarm War with China”, Washington Post, April16,2006, p. B07.
⑤Philip Bowring,“Who Needs Whom More?”, The International Herald Tribune, February5,2011.(http://yalegobal.yale.edu/content/who-needs-whom-more); Derek Scissors,“Misconceptions on China’s Role in Financing the US Deficit”,March24,2010.(http://www.heritage.org/Research/Commentary/2010/03/Misconception-on-Chinas-Role-in-Financing-the-US-
⑥Fu-Kuo Liu,“The Structural Change in the United States and China Relations: Security Implication for the AsiaPacific Region”, East Asian Review, Vol.14,2011, p.54.
①袁鹏，“战略互信与战略稳定”，《现代国际关系》，2008年第1期，第38页。
②“2010:The Year of Decision”, Remarks by Jon Huntsman，(Former) U.S.Ambassador to the People’s Republic ofChina，at Tsinghua University, Beijing, China, March18,2010.(http://beijing.usembassy-china.org.cn/031810amb.html.)
③叫停的原因三次直接与台湾问题有关（1996年第一次台海危机、2008年10月小布什对台军售和2010年1月奥巴马批准对台军售）。参见徐辉，“中美军事互信为何难以建立？”《外交评论》，2010年第2期，第23页。
⑤战略互信根据信任的强度可分为强信任（strong form trust）、次信任（semi-strong form trust）和弱信任（weakform trust）。“强信任”指信任主体间在政治、经济制度和意识形态、文化传统、宗教信仰、对外战略等方面拥有高度的同质性；“次信任”指信任主体间虽然在政治制度、意识形态等方面不同，但在对外战略上拥有较一致的观点，互不把对方视为威胁；“弱信任”指信任主体间不但在政治制度、意识形态、文化传统等方面迥异，而且存在战略猜疑，但是为了降低彼此冲突的风险，双方达成在部分问题领域开展合作的基本共识。参见：Jay B. Barney and Mark H. Hansen,“Trustworthiness as a Source of Competitive Advantage Strategic”, ManagementJournal,1994, pp.177-181；刘庆，“战略互信”概念辨析”，《国际论坛》2008年第1期，第42-43页。
⑥肯尼斯·沃尔兹：《国际政治理论》，信强译，2003年版，第105页。
①Robert Keohane, After Hegemony: Cooperation and Discord in the Political Economy, pp.85-101.
②Testimony of Harry Harding Presented to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, May15,2008.(http://foreign.senate/gov/testimony/2008/HardingTestimony080515p.pdf.)
③Evan S. Medeiros,“Is Beijing Ready for Global Leadership?” Current History, September,2009, p.256.
④Michael Mastanduno,“Still Liberal Leader? U.S. Power, Purpose, and the World Economy”, paper presented toMacAutherAsia Security Initiative Workshop2011, Beijing, June10-12, p.220.
⑤Kenneth Lieberthal,“The China-U.S. Relationship Goes Global”, Current History, September,2009, pp.243-244.
⑥袁鹏，“战略互信与战略稳定”，第33页。
⑦Zbignew Brezinsiki and John J. Mearsheimer,“Clash of the Titans”, Foreign Affairs, Vol.146(January/February
US Department of Defense, Quadrennial Defense Review,2001/2006/2010
The White House, The National Security Strategy of USA,2002/2006/2010
U.S. Department of Defense, Annual Defense Report of USA,2002/2010
U.S. Department of Defense, Nuclear Posture Review Report,2002/2010
U.S. Department of Defense, Annual Report to Congress: The Military Power of the P.R.C.,2006/2008/2009/2010/2011
U.S. Department of Defense, National Security Space Strategy, February2011
Office of the Secretary of Defense, Ballistic Missile Defense Review, February2010
Office of the Director of National Intelligence, The National Intelligence Strategy of USA,2001/2010
George W. Bush, State of the Union Address,2002/2008
Barack Obama, State of the Union Address,2011/2012
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台湾《中国时报》、《联合报》、《自由时报》、《苹果日报》《问题与研究》等
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①Stephen Brooks and William Wohlforth,“American Primacy in Perspective”, Foreign Affairs, Vol.81, No.4(July/August,2002), pp.20-33.的争论”，《当代亚太》2011年第1期，第94-96页。
①Fareed Zakaria,“The Future of American Power: How America Can Survive the Rise of the Rest?” Foreign Affairs,Vol.87, No.3(May/June2008).持“美国衰弱论”的还有戴维·梅森的《美国世界的终结》，中译本于2009年由上海辞书出版社出版。
②Joseph S. Nye, Jr., The Paradox of American Power: Why the World’s Only Superpower Can’t Go It Alone (NewYork: Oxford University Press,2002); Soft Power: The Means to Success in World Politics (New York: Public Affairs,2004); The Powers to Lead (NewYork: Oxford University Press,2008); The Future of Power (NewYork: PublicAffairs,2011).
③讨论如何维系美国优势地位的有：Michael Cox,“Is the United States in Decline Again?” International Affairs,Vol.83, No.4,2007, pp.643-653; Robert Lieber,“Persistent Primacy and the Future of theAmerican Era”,AmericanPolitical ScienceAssociation Annual Meeting Paper,2007; Robert Singh,“The Exceptional Empire:Why the UnitedStates Will not DeclineAgain?” International Politics, Vol.45, No.5,2008, pp.571-593; etc.
④Joseph S. Nye, Jr., The Future of Power, pp.231-233.
⑤David Lague,“Coming to Terms with China’sAscent”, The International Herald Tribune, November8,2005.
⑥Michael Elliott,“The Chinese Century”, Time, January11,2007.(http://www.time.com/time/printout/0,8816,1576831,00.html.)
⑦Cover:What's Next, Who’s Next: China, Newsweek, December23,2007.(http://www.newscom.com/cgi-bin/prnh/20071223/NYSU001.)
③Lyle J. Goldstein and Andrew Erickson (eds.),“China’s Nuclear Force Modernization”, Naval War CollegeNewport Papers, No.22,2005; Drew Thompson,“Think Again: China's Military”, Foreign Policy, March/April2010;Roger Cliff (et al.), Entering the Dragon's Lair: Chinese Anti-access Strategies and Their Implications for the UnitedStates (RAND Corporation,2007); Roger Cliff, Anti-Access Measures in ChineseDefenseStrategy (RANDCorporation,2011); Eric V. Larson (et al.), Assuring Access in Key Strategic Regions: Toward a Long-Term Strategy
(RAND Corporation,2004); Stephen J. Flanagan and Michael E. Marti (eds.), The People’s Liberation Army andChina in Transition (Washington, D.C.: National Defense University Press,2003), etc.
④Susan L. Shirk, China Fragile Superpower: How China's Internal Politics Could Derail Its Peaceful Rise (Oxford:Oxford University Press,2007).
⑤David M. Lampton, The Three Faces of Chinese Power: Might, Money, and Minds (Berkeley: University ofCalifornia Press,2007).
⑥Oded Shenkar,“The Chinese Century:The Rising Chinese Economy and Its Impact on the Global Economy”, inThe Balance of Power, andYour Job (NJ:Wharton School Publishing,2005); Mark Roden,“US-China Relations inthe Contemporary Era:An International Political Economy Perspective”, Politics, Vol.23, Issue3(September2003),pp.192-200.
⑧Jean-Philippe Béja,“The Fly in the Ointment? Chinese Dissent and US-China Relations”, Pacific Review, August2003.
①Robert G. Sutter, China’s Rise: Implications for U.S. Leadership in Asia (Washington, D.C.:The East-West Center,2006);“China’s Rise inAsia—Are US Interests in Jeopardy?” American Asian Review, Vol.21, Issue2(Summer2003), pp.1-22.
②Robert W. Radtke,“China’s ‘Peaceful Rise’Overshadowing US Influence inAsia?” Christian Science Monitor,December8,2003, Vol.96, Issue9, p.9; David Shambaugh,“China Engages Asia”, International Security, Vol.29,No.3(Winter2004/05), pp.70-91; etc.
③Alastair Iain Johnston,“Is China a St atus Quo Power?” International Security, Vol.27, No.4(Spring2003). pp.5-56; Denny Roy,“Rising China and US Interests: Inevitable VS. Contingent Hazards”, Orbis, Winter2003.
④David C. Kang, China Rising: Peace, Power, and Order in East Asia (Columbia: Columbia University Press,2007).
⑤Evan S. Medeiros (et al),“The Responses of U. S.Allies and Security Partners in EastAsia to China’s Rise”,(http://www. rand.org/pubs/monographs/MG736/.); Michael Swaine,Alan Romberg, Douglas H. Paal,“U.S. PolicyToward Taiwan, Time for Change?”(http://www.carnegieendowment.org/events/?fa=eventDetai&lid=1108&zoom_highlight=Taiwan.); etc.
⑥参见：Stephen Fidler andAndrew Batson,“Beijing Exercises Its Global Leverage”, Wall Street Journal,April6,2009; Jing-dong Yuan,“China GetsAssertive as US Ties Grow”, Asia Times,April7,2009;Alan Wheatley,“AChinathat Says ‘No’Casts Economic Shadows”, Reuters, January18,2010; John Pomfret,“China’s Strident Tone RaisesConcerns among Western Governments”, The Washington Post, January31,2010; Robert J. Samuelson,“The DangerBehind China’s ‘Me First’Worldview”, The Washington Post, February15,2010; David Shambaugh,“The ChineseTiger Shows Its Claws”, Financial Times, February17,2010; Andrew Small,“Dealing with AMore Assertive China”,February18,2010.(http://www.forbes.com); Rana Foroohar and Melinda Liu,“It’s China’s World, We’re Just Livingin It”, Newsweek, March12,2010; John Pomfret,“Newly Powerful China Defies Western Nations with Remarks”,The Washington Post, March15,2010.
①William H. Overholt, Asia, America, and the Transformation of Geopolitics (NewYork: Cambridge UniversityPress,2008), pp. xxxvii-xxxix.
②Chika Yamamoto,“The US Response to China's Multilateral Approach Toward East Asia”, Journal of US-ChinaPublic Administration, Vol.8, Issue8(August2011), pp.890-905.
③Alastair Iain Johnston, Social State: China in International Institutions,1980-2000(Princeton: PrincetonUniversity Press,2008).
④John J. Mearsheimer, The Tragedy of Great Power (W. W. Norton&Company,2001);“China’s Unpeaceful Rise”,Current History, Vol.105, No.690(April2006).
⑤G.. John Ikenberry, Liberal Order and Imperial Ambition (Cambridge: Polity Press,2006);“The Rise of China andthe Future of the West”, Foreign Affairs, Vol.87, Issue1(Jan/Feb2008).
⑥Richard N. Haass,“China: Don’t Isolate, Integrate”, Newsweek, November29,2008.(http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2008/11/28/china-don-t-isolate-integrate.html.)
⑦Nina Hachigian, Winny Chen and Christopher Beddor,“China’s New Engagement in the International System”,Center for American Progress, November2009.
①G.. John Ikenberry and Michael Mastaduno (eds.), International Relations Theory and the Asia-Pacific (NewYork:Columbia University Press,2003); Kevin J. Cooney and Yoichiro Sato (eds.), The Rise of China and InternationalSecurity: America and Asia Respond (New York: Routledge,2008); Lyle J. Goldstein,“Resetting the US-ChinaSecurity Relationship”, Survival, Vol.53, No.2(February-March2011).
②Dan Blumenthal,“Sea Change in Pacific”, The American, March25,2009; Malou Innocent,“China: Peace Partneror Warmonger?” The Cato Institute, February27,2009; etc.
③Robert D. Kaplan,“China’s Two-Ocean Strategy”, in Abraham Denmark and Nirav Patel (eds.),“China’sArrival:AStrategic Framework for a Global Relationship”, Center for a NewAmerican Security, September2009.
⑥Charles A. Kupchan (et al), Power in Transition: The Peaceful Change of International Order (Tokyo: UnitedNation University Press,2001).
⑦Vlado Vivoda,“China Challenges Global Capitalism”, Australian Journal of International Affairs, Vol.63, Issue1(March2009).
pp.5-36;“Culture and International Society”, International Relations, Vol.86, No.1,2010, pp.1-25.
①朱峰，罗伯特·罗斯：《中国崛起：理论与政策的视角》，上海：上海人民出版社，2008年版。
②较有影响的译著有：[美]约翰·米尔斯海默：《大国政治的悲剧》，王义桅、唐小松译，上海：上海人民出版社，2003年版；[美]亨利·基辛格：《大外交》，顾淑馨、林添译，海南：海南出版社，2006年版；[美]保罗·肯尼迪：《大国的兴衰：1500-2000年的经济变迁与军事冲突》，陈景彪等译，北京：国际文化出版公司，2006年版；[美]兹比格纽·布热津斯基：《大棋局：美国的首要地位及其地缘战略》，中国国际问题研究所译，上海：上海世纪出版集团，2007年版；[美]布鲁斯·琼斯等：《权力与责任：构建跨国威胁时代的国际秩序》，秦亚青等译，北京：世界知识出版社，2009年版，等等。
③Kenneth N. Waltz, Man, the state, and War: A Theoretical Analysis (NewYork: Columbia University Press,1959).
④James A. Caporaso,“Across the Great Divide: Integrating Compatative and International Politics”, InternationalStudies Quarterly, Vol.41, No.4(December1997), p.564.
①主要成果有：Ronald Rogowski, Commerce and Coalitoons: How Trade Affects Domestic Poltical Alignments
(Princeton: Princeton University Press,1989; JeffryA. Frieden, Debt, Development and Democracy: Modern PolticalEconomy and Lation America,1865-1985((Princeton: Princeton University Press,1991); David A. Lake,“The StatesandAmerican Trade Strategy in Pre-Hegemonic Era”, International Organization, Vol.42, No.1(Winter1988), pp.33-58; Michael Mastanduno.“Trade as a Strategic Weapon:American andAlliance Export Control Policy in theEarly Postwar Period”, International Organization, Vol.42, No.1(Winter1988). pp.121-150.
②以跨层次分析为特色的研究成果包括：Robert O. Keohane, Joseph S. Nye, and Stanley Hoffmann (eds.), Afterthe Cold War: International Institutions and State Strategies in Europe,1989-1991(Cambridge, Mass.: HarvardUniversity Press,1993); Robert O. Keohane and Helen Milner (eds.), Internationalization and Domestic Politics
(Cambridge: Cambridge University Press,1996), etc.
③1998年，美国学者吉登·罗斯（Gideon Rose）发表“新古典现实主义和对外政策理论”一文，对相关研究成果进行归纳总结，首次提出“新古典现实主义”（Neoclassical Realism）说法，并为学界接受。Gideon Rose,“Neoclassical Realism and Theories of Foreign Policy”, World Politics, Vol.51, No.1(October1998).
⑤Fareed Zakaria, From Wealth to Power: the Unusual Origins of America’s World Role (Princeton, N.J: PrincetonUniversity Press,1998.), pp.93,127,133-146.
⑥Thomas J. Christensen, Useful Adversaries Grand Strategy, Domestic Mobilisation, and Sino-American Conflict:1947-1958(New Jersey, Princton: Princton University Press,1996), pp.32-76.
①Randall L. Scweller, Unanswered Threats Political Constraints on the Balance of Power (Princton, N. J.: PrinctonUniversity Press,2006), pp.4-8.
②Steven E. Lobell, Norrin M. Ripsman and JefferyW. Taliaferro (eds.), Neoclassical Realism, the State, and ForeignPolicy (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press,2009.)
③这方面的文献有：唐小松，“外交政策理论构建的新发展：新古典现实主义流派评介”，《国际论坛》，2000年第4期，第45-49页；王公龙，“新古典现实主义理论的贡献与缺失”，《国际论坛》，2006年第4期，第36-41页；刘丰，“新古典现实主义的发展及前景”，《国际政治科学》，2007年第3期，第155-168页；陈小鼎，“国际关系研究层次的上升与回落”，《世界经济与政治》，2008年第7期，第48-62页；宋伟，“从国际政治理论到外交政策理论”，《外交评论》，2009年第3期，第25-47页；刘丰、左希迎，“新古典现实主义”一个独立的研究纲领？”《外交评论》，2009年第4期，第127-137页；李巍，“从体系层次到单元层次：国内政治与新古典现实主义”，《外交评论》，2009年第5期，第134-150页；董青岭，“质疑新古典现实主义：建构性现实主义的路径？”《外交评论》，2009年第6期，第132-142页；刘若楠，“新古典现实主义的进展与困境”，《国际政治科学》，2010年第2期，第135-146页；等等。
④吴其胜，“国际关系中的跨层次研究”，《外交评论》，2008年第2期，第60-75页。
⑤郑端耀，“国际关系新古典现实主义理论”，《问题与研究》（台北），2005年第1期，第115-140页。
⑥宋学文，“层次分析对国际关系研究的重要性及模型建构”，《问题与研究》（台北），2008年第4期，第167-199页。
①熊彼特：《资本主义、社会主义与民主》，北京：商务印书馆，1999年版，第46页。
②海尔布隆纳：《马克思主义：赞成和反对》，北京：中国社会科学院情报研究所，1982年版，第1页。
③李滨，“什么是马克思主义国际关系理论?”《世界经济与政治》，2005年第5期，第37-44页。
④赵可金、倪世雄，《中国国际关系理论研究》，上海：复旦大学出版社，2007年版，第29-34页。
⑤Michael W. Doyle, Ways of War and Peace: Realism, Liberalism and Socialism (NewYork and London: WW.Norton and Company Inc.,1997), pp.322-323.
①《马克思恩格斯选集》第2巻，北京：人民出版社，1973年版，第25页。
②《马克思恩格斯选集》第1卷，北京：人民出版社，1995年版，第114页。
③罗伯特·考克斯：《生产、权力和世界秩序：社会力量在缔造历史中的作用》，林华译，北京：世界知识出版社，2004年版，第12页。
④卡尔·马克思：《哥达纲领批判》，《马克思恩格斯选集》第3卷，北京：人民出版社，1985年版，第15页。
①Scott Burcill andAndrew Linklater, Theories of International Relations (London Macmillan Press Ltd.,1996), p.135.
②罗伯特·基欧汉主编：《新现实主义及其批判》，郭树勇译，北京：北京大学出版社，2002年版，第191，227页。
③陆昕，白云真，“试概述马克思主义国际关系理论”，《兰州学刊》，2009年第3期，第46页。
④王存刚，“为什么要发展马克思主义国际关系理论”，《世界经济与政治论坛》，2009年第5期，第7页。
⑤詹姆斯·多尔蒂、小罗伯特·普法尔茨格拉夫：《争论中的国际关系理论》，阎学通等译，北京：世界知识出版社，2003年版，第462,488页，
⑥Gabriele Wight and Brian Porter (eds), International Theory: the Three Traditons (Leicester and London LeicesterUniversity Press,1991); Michael W. Doyle, Ways of War and Peace: Realism, Liberalism and Socialism (New Yorkand London W.W. Norton&Company,1997).转引自陆昕，白云真，“试概述马克思主义国际关系理论”，第46页。
①郭树勇，“试论马克思主义国际关系思想及其研究方向”，《世界经济与政治》，2004年第4期，第14页。
②Kenneth Waltz, Theory of International Politics (Peking University Press,2004), pp.19-20.
③罗伯特·基欧汉：《霸权之后》，第51页。
④此处部分参考王存刚，“为什么要发展马克思主义国际关系理论”，第7-8页。
⑤Fredric Jameson, The Policital Unconscious Narrative as A Socially Synbolic Act (Cornell University Press,1981),p.10.
①Kenneth N. Waltz, Man, the state, and War: A Theoretical Analysis（NewYork: Columbia University Press,1959）.
②John David Singer,“International Conflict:Three Levels ofAnalysis”, World Politics, Vol.12, No.3（1960）, pp.453-461; and “The Level-of-analysis Problem in International Relations”, World Politics, Vol.14, No.1（1961）, pp.77-92.
③James Rosenau,“Pre-Theories and Theories of Foreign Policy”, in Barry Farrel (ed.), Approaches to Comparativeand International Politics (Evanston, IL: Northwestern University Press,1966), pp.29-92; and James Rosenan, TheScientific Study of Foreign Policy (London: Frances Printer,1980), pp.115-169.
④Bruce Russett and Harvey Starr, World Politics: AMenu for Choice (NewYork:W.H. Freeman,1992), pp.11-17.
①Barry Buzan,“The Level ofAnalysis Problem in International Relations Reconsidered”, in Ken Booth and SteveSmith (eds.), International Relations Theory Today (Cambridge:Dolity Press,1995), pp.198-217.
②对国际关系中层次分析法的论述还可参见：K. J. Holsti, International Politics: A Framework for Analysis (NewJersey: Engle Wood Cliffs),3thEdition,1977.
③沃尔兹认为国际政治理论最忌淹没在单元层次的琐碎行为中，一个好的理论，必须是高度简约的理论，即用越少的自变量来解释越多的因变量，由此提出体系层次的理论分析最具间接性与科学性，其核心假设是体系结构决定单元互动。参见：Kenneth N. Waltz, Theory of Internaitonal Politics (NewYork: McGraw-Hill,1979),pp.66-80.
④陈小鼎，“国际关系研究层次的上升与回落”，《世界经济与政治》，2008年第7期，第49页。
⑤宋学文，“从层次分析探讨霸权稳定论：一个国际关系理论演化的研究方法”，《问题与研究》（台北），第43卷，第2期（2004年），第178页。
⑥Alexander Wendt,“Anarchy is What States Make of It: the Social Construction of Power Politics,” InternationalOrganization, Vol.46, No.2（1992）, pp.391-425.转引自宋学文，“层次分析对国际关系研究的重要性及模型建构”，第172页。
①尚劝余，“国际关系层次分析法：起源、流变、内涵和应用”，《国际论坛》，2011年7月刊，第52页。
②戴维·赫尔德：《民主与全球秩序》，胡伟译，上海：上海人民出版社，2003年版，第20页。
③Kenneth N. Waltz,“Reflections on Theory of International Poltics:AResponse to My Critics”, in Robert Keohane(ed.), Neorealism and its Critics (NewYork Columbia University Press,1986), pp.339-440; Kenneth N. Waltz,“International Politics is Not Foreign Policy”, Security Studies, Vol.6, No.1(Autumn1996), pp.52-57.
④参见：Harald Muller and Thomas Risse-Kappen,“From the Outside In and From the Insideout: InternationalRelations, Domestic Politics and Foreign Policy”, in Valerie Hudson and David Skidmore (eds.), The Limits of StateAutonomy: SocietalGroups and Foreign Policy Formation (Boulder, CO: Westview,1993), pp.25-48;
⑤Robert Pahre and Paul Papayoanou,“Using Game Theory to Link Domestic and Internaitonal Politics”, Jounal ofConflict Resolution, Vol.41, No.1(February1997), p.4.
⑥Charles Hermann,“Changing Course: When Governments Choose to Redirect Foreign Policy”, InternationalStudies Quarterly, Vol.34, No.1(1990), pp.3-21.
⑦James Rosenau,“Toward the Study of National-International Linkage”, in James Rosenau (ed.), Linkage Politics:Essays on the Convergence of National and International Systems (New York: Free Press,1969), pp.44-63.
⑧Peter Katzenstein,“International Relations and Domestic Structures: Foreign Economic Policies of AdvancedIndustrialStates”, International Organization, Vo.l30, No.1(1976); and, Peter Katzenstein,“Domestic andInternational Forces and Strategies of Foreign Economic Policy”, International Organization, Vo.l31, No.4(1977).
①Robert Putnam,“Diplomacy and Domestic Politics:The Logic of Two-Level Games”, International Organization(Summer1998), Vol.42, No.3, pp.427-460.
②Peter B. Evans et al.(eds), Double-edged Diplomacy: Internaitoanl Bargaining and Domestic Politics (Berkeley:University of California Press,1993); Jeffrey W. Knopf,“Beyond Two-Level Games: Domestic-InternationalInteraction in the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Negotiations”, International Organization, Vol.47, No.4
（1994）, pp.599-628; Helen Milner, Interests, Institutions, and Information: Domestic Politics and InternationalRelation（Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press,1997）, pp.67-98; Michael Mastanduno (et al),“Toward aRealist Theory of State Action”, International Studies Quarterly, Vol.33, No.4(December1989), pp.457-474.
①Charles W. Kegley, Jr. and Eugene R. Wirrkopf, American Foreign Policy: Pattern and Press (NewYork: St.Martin’s Press,1996), p.
②Fareed Zakaria, From Wealth to Power: The Unusual Origins of America’s World Role (Princeton, NJ: PrincetonUniversity,1998), p.28.
③Aaron Friedberg, The Weary Titan: Britain and the Experience of Relative Decline:1895-1905(Princeton:Princeton University Press,1998), p.13.
①Gideon Rose,“Neoclassical Realism and Theories of Foreign Policy”, World Politics, Vol.51, No.1(October1998), pp.151-152.
③参见：Randall L. Schweller, Deadly Imbalance: Tripolarity and Hitler’s Strategy of World Conquest (NewYorkColumbia University Press,1998), pp.218-220.
④Alexander L. George,“Case Studies and Theory Development:The Method of Structured, Focused Comparison”,in Paul Gordon Lauren (ed), Diplomacy: New Approaches in History, Theory and Policy (NewYork: Free Press,1979).
①Colin Elman,“Horses for Courses:Why Not Neorealist of Foreign Policy?”Security Studies, Vol.6, No.1(Autumn1996), pp.18-22.
②Stephen M. Walt,“The Enduring Relevance of the Realist Tradition”, in Ira Katznelson and Helen V. Milner (eds.),Political Science: The State of the Disciplion (NewYork: Norton,2002), p.211.
③Thomas J. Christensen, Useful Adversaries Grand Strategy, Domestic Mobilisation, and Sino-American Conflict:1947-1958, p.16.
①William C. Wohlforth,“Realism and the End of the Cold War”, in Michael E. Brown et al (eds), The Perils ofAnarcy: Contemporary Realism and International Security (Cambridge MIT Press,1995), p.19.
②《列宁选集》第2卷，北京：人民出版社，1995年版，第577,682页。
③参见：[英]大卫·哈维：《新帝国主义》，初立忠等译，北京：社会科学文献出版社，2009年版；曹义恒，“斯克拉和贝克尔后帝国主义理论述评”，《马克思主义与现实》，2006年第4期，第107-113页；尚伟，“布哈林帝国主义理论解析及其现实意义”，《马克思主义研究》，2007年第10期，第62-67页；曹义恒、曹荣湘主编：
《后帝国主义》，北京：中央编译出版社，2007年版。
①安东尼奥·葛兰西：《实践哲学》，重庆：重庆出版社，1990年版，第2页。
②Immanuel Wallerstein, The Politics of World Economy: the States, the Movement and the Civilizations (CambridgeUniversity Press,1984), p.38.
③罗伯特·考克斯，“社会理论、国家与世界秩序：超越国际关系理论”，载罗伯特·基欧汉主编：《新现实主义及其批判》，郭树勇译，北京：北京大学出版社，2002年版，第203-204页。
④[英]贾斯廷·罗森伯格：《市民社会的帝国》，洪邮生译，南京：江苏人民出版社，2002年版，第7页。
⑤Katleen Thelen and Sven Steinmo,“Historical Institutionalismin Comparative Politics”, in Sven Steinmo et al.(eds.), Structuring Politics Historical Institutionalism in Comparative Analysis (Cambridge: Cambridge UniversityPress,1992), p.11.
⑥Randall L. Scweller, Unanswered Threats Political Constraints on the Balance of Power, pp.46-48.
①Peter J. Katzenstein (ed.), Between Power and Plenty: Foreign Economic Politics of Advanced Industrial States(Madison: University of Wisconsin Press,1978); Peter Gourevitch,“The Second ImageReversed: TheInternationalSources of Domestic Politics”, International Organization, Vol.32, No.4(Autumn1978), pp.881-912.
②George T. Crane andAblaAmawi (eds.), The Theoretical Evolution of International Poltical Economy: A Reader(NewYork: Oxford University Press,1997), p.4.
②William Wallace, Foreign Policy and the Political Process (London: Macmillan,1971), p.11.
③Richard C. Snyder, H. W. Bruck and Burton Sapin, Foreign Policy Decision-Making (NewYork: Free Press,1962),p.57.
⑤Richard C. Snyder, H. W. Bruck and Burton Sapin,“Decision-Making as an Approach to the Study of InternationalPolitics”, Foreign Policy Analysis (Princeton University), No.3,1954.
①杰里尔·A·罗赛蒂：《美国对外政策的政治学》，周启朋等译，北京：世界知识出版社，1997年版，第242-243页。
②胡伟：《政府过程》，杭州：浙江人民出版社，1998年版，第255页。
③托马斯·R·戴伊：《自上而下的政策制定》，鞠方安、吴忧译，北京：中国人民大学出版社，2002年版，第1页。
④John W. Kingdon, Agendas, Alternatives, and Public Policies (New York: Harper Collins College Publishers,1995),2ndEdition.
⑤王鸣鸣：“外交决策研究中的理性选择模式”，《世界政治与经济》2003年第11期，第14页。
⑥特雷沃·泰勒:《国际关系中的学派与理论》，钮先钟译，台北：台湾商务印书馆，1985年版，第191页。
⑦Steven J. Brams, Rational Politics (Washington D.C.: CQ Press,1985), Preface, p. VI.
⑧罗伯特·基欧汉：《霸权之后》，苏长和等译，上海人民出版社，2001年版，第80页。
①夏尔·菲利普·大卫：《白宫的秘密：从杜鲁门到克林顿的美国外交决策》，北京：中国人民大学出版社，1998年版，第4页。
②冯玉军：“对外政策研究中的决策理论”，《世界政治与经济》，2000年第2期，第30页。
③肯尼思·沃尔兹：《国际政治理论》，上海人民出版社，2003年版，第16页。
④Graham T.Allison, Essence of Decision, Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis (Boston: Little Brown Company,1971), pp.32-33.
⑤夏尔·菲利普·大卫：《白宫的秘密：从杜鲁门到克林顿的美国外交决策》，第14页。
⑥多尔蒂、普法尔茨格拉夫：《争论中的国际关系理论》，北京：世界知识出版社，1987年版，第502页。
①Graham T.Allison, Essence of Decision, p.67.
③JerelA. Rosati,“Developing a Systematic Decision-Making Framework: Bureaucratic Politics in Perspective,”World Politics, Vol.33, No.2(January,1981), pp.237-238；杰里尔·A·罗赛蒂：《美国对外政策的政治学》，第253页。
④Robert Jervis, Perception and Misperception in International Politics (Princeton:Princeton University Press),1976.
⑤夏尔·菲利普·大卫：《白宫的秘密：从杜鲁门到克林顿的美国外交决策》，第8页。
⑥Robert J.Art, Robert Jervis (eds.), International Politics: Anarchy, Force, Political Economy and Decision-Making(Boston: Little, Brown and Company,1985), the2ndedition, p.437.
①Tan Qingshan, The Making of U.S. China Policy: From Normalization to the Post-Cold War Era (Lynne RiennerPublisher: Bouler&London,1992), p.10.
②Roger Hilsman, To Move a Nation: The Politics of Foreign Policy in the Administration of John F. Kennedy (NewYork: Doubleday,1967), pp.541-544.
①Howard J. Wiarda, Foreign Policy Without Illusion: How Foreign Policy-Making Works and Fails to Work in theUnited States (NewYork: Scott,1990), pp.38-39.
②Charles W. Jr. Kegley and Eugene R. Wittkopf (eds.), American Foreign Policy: Pattern and Process,5thEdition(NewYork: St. Martin’s Press,1996).
①汉密尔顿、杰伊、麦迪逊：《联邦党人文集》，程逢如等译，北京：商务印书馆，1980年版，第246页。
②路易斯·亨金：《宪政·民主·对外事务》，邓正来译，北京三联书店，1996年版，第27页。
③杰里尔·A·罗赛蒂：《美国对外政策的政治学》，第40页。
④埃尔默·普利施科：《首脑外交》，周启朋译，北京：世界知识出版社，1990年版，第10页。
①斯蒂芬·斯科夫罗内克：《总统政治》，黄云等译，北京：新华出版社，2003年，第4页。
②杰里尔·A·罗赛蒂：《美国对外政策的政治学》，第71-75页。
③James M. McCormick, American Foreign Policy and Process, p.356.
①林廷辉：“美国国家安全顾问与国务卿于外交决策制定过程中之竞争关系”，载台湾《通识研究集刊》第五期，2004年6月，第118页。
②The United States National Security Act of1947, Title I, Section101(a).
③赫德里克·史密斯：《权力游戏——华盛顿是如何工作的》，肖峰等译，北京：中国人民大学出版社，1991年版，第338页。
④Stanley L. Falk,“The National Security Council Under Truman, Eisenhower, and Kennedy”, Political ScienceQuarterly, Vol.79, No.3(September,1964), p.434.
②Rodrigue Tremblay, The Five Pillars of the U.S. Military-Industrial Complex.(http://www.thenewamericanempire.com/author.html.)
③唐晓：“美国外交决策机制概论”，《外交学院学报》1996年第1期，第49页。
①David Wise and Thomas Ross, The Invisible Government（NewYork: Random House,1974）, p.132.
②罗杰·希尔斯曼：《美国是如何治理的》，曹大鹏译，北京：商务印书馆，1986年版，第244页。
①汉密尔顿、杰伊、麦迪逊：《联邦党人文集》，第264页。
③杰里尔·A·罗赛蒂：《美国对外政策的政治学》，第267页。
④路易斯·亨金，《宪政·民主·对外事务》，第31-32页。转引自陈积敏，“论美国总统与国会外交权力的博弈”，《江南社会学院学报》2009年6月（第11卷第2期），第24页。
⑤Krasner Chaberski and Jones, America Government, Structure and Process (New York: Macmilan,1977), p.8.
⑥RobertA. Pastor, Congress and the Politics of U.S. Foreign Economics:1929-1976(Berkeley, Los Angeles andLondon: University of California Press,1980), p.53.
⑦孙仲：“论美国总统与国会外交决策权的消长”，《浙江大学学报》（人文科学版），第30卷，第2期，第71页。
①参议院88票赞成、2票反对，众议院416票赞成、0票反对。
②周琪主编：《国会与美国外交政策》，上海：上海社会科学出版社，2006年版，第11页。
③詹姆斯·M·伯恩斯：《民治政府》，北京：中国社会科学出版社，1996年版，第609页。
④Ramdall B. Ripley and James M. Lindsay (eds.), Congress Resurgent: Foreign and Defense Policy on Capitol Hill
(The University of Michigan Press,1993), pp.18~22; Walt Vanderbush and Patrick J. Haney,“Clinton, Congress andCuba Policy Between Two Codifications:The Changing Executive-Legislative Relationship in Foreign PolicyMaking,” Congress&the Presidency, Vol.29, No.2(Autumn2002), pp.171-194.
①William Schneider,“From Foreign Policy to ‘Politics as Usual’,” in DavidA. Deese (ed.), The New Politics ofAmerican Foreign Policy (St. Martin’s Press Inc.,1994), Introduction, p. X.
②Alexis de Tocqueville, Democracy in America (AlfredA. Knopf, Inc.,1956), p.1836.
③Roger Hilsman, To Govern America (Harper&Row: Publishers,1979), p.263; Denise L Baer, DavidABositis,Politics and Linkage in a Democratic Society (N. J. Pretice-Hall Inc.,1993), p.24; Mark P Petracca (ed.), The politicsof Interests: Interest Groups Transformed (Boulder:Westview Press,1992), p.3.
④Arthur Bentley, The Process of Government: A Study of Social Pressures (Cambridge, Mass.: Belknap Press ofHarvard University Press,1967), pp.205-208.
⑤David B Truman, The Government Process（N.Y.:Alfred Knopf,1951), pp.368,523.
①Bruce C. Wolpe and Bertram J. Levine, Lobbying Congress: How the System Works (Congressional Quarterly Inc.,1996),2ndEdition, p.78.
②孙大雄，“利益集团在美国政治中的地位和作用”，《社会主义研究》，2003年第3期，第105页。
③一译“思想库”。英文Think Tank原意是美国第二次大战期间为国防科学家和军事参谋提供的一种能够让他们在一起讨论作战计划和其它战略问题的安全保险的房间或环境，后用来指代从事政策分析研究的组织和机构。见Donald E.Abelson, American Think-Tanks and their Role in U.S. Foreign Policy (London and NewYork:Macmillan and St. Martin's Press,1996); Donald E.Abelson, Do Think Tanks Matter? Assessing the Impact of PublicPolicy Institutes (Montreal and Kingston: McGill-Queen's University Press,2009),2ndEdition.
①据James McGann所做的“2008年全球智库指数”统计，截至2008年底全球共有5500家智库，其中美国1777家，约占全球总数的1/3。见James McGann,“The Think Tank Index,” Foreign Policy（January/February,2009）,p.82.2011年1月25日James McGann又发表新统计，全美有广义上智库1816家。见James McGann,“The Global‘GO-TO Think Tanks’:The Leading Public Policy Research Organizations in the World”, The Think Tanks and CivilSocieties Program, University of Pennsylvania, January2011.
(http://www.ony.unu.edu/enents-forums/news/CA/2011/worldranking-of-thinktans.php.)
③James G. McGann, Comparative Think Tanks, Politics and Public Policy (Northampton: Edward Elgar PublishingLimited,2005), p.12.
④Richard N. Haass,“Think Tanks and U.S. Foreign Policy:APolicy-Maker’s Perspective”, An Electronic Journal ofthe U.S. Department of State, Vol.7, No.3(November2002), pp.6-8.
⑤Donald E.Abelson, American Think-Tanks and Their Role in US Foreign Policy (ST. Martin’s Press, INC.,1996),p.71.
②V. O. Key, Public Opinion and American Democracy (NewYork:Alfred. A. Knopf,1961), p.552.
③Walter Lippmann, The Phantom Public (New Brunswick
④汉斯·摩根索：《国家间政治》，北京：商务印书馆，1993年版，第201页。
⑤Thomas A. Bailey, The Men in the Street (NewYork: Macmillan,1948), p.1.
⑥Samuel Popkin, The Reasoning Voter: Communication and Persuasion in Presidential Campaigns (Chicago:University of Chicago Press,1991), p.106.
①斯提芬·K·贝尼主编：《美国政治与政府》，石家庄：河北大学出版社，1981年版，第24页。
②David L. Paletz, Media in American Polities (Addison-Wesley Educational Publishers Inc,2002),2ndEdition,pp.344-345.
③Thomas W. Graham, The Politics of Failure: Strategic Arms Control, Public Opinion and Domestic Politics in theUnited States,1945~1980(Massachusetts Inst. of Technology,1989), p.78.转引自王鸣鸣，“公众舆论与美国对外政策”，《世界政治与经济》，2002年第5期，第80页。
④Freedom of Information Act（FOIA),1966.
⑤Philip Powlick,“The Attitudinal Bases for Responsiveness to Public Opinion amongAmerican Foreign PolicyOfficials”, Journal of Conflict Resolution, No.35,1991, pp.612~613.
④陈建荣，“美国对华决策政治系统及要求”，《东南亚研究》，2002年第6期，第19页。
⑤袁鹏、傅梦孜：《美国思想库及其对华倾向》，北京：时事出版社，2003年版，第44页。
①Erik Eckholm,“The Cold War Left No Maps For This Face-Off,” New York Times,April8,2001.
②Doris Graber, Mass Media and American Politics (Washington: CQ Press,1997), p.375.
③艾森豪威尔：《艾森豪威尔回忆录——白宫岁月（上）》，上海：三联书店，1977年版，第446页。
①James M. Lindsay, Congress and the Politics of U.S. Foreign Policy (Baltimore, MD:The Johns HopkinsUniversity Press,1994), p. VII.
②转引自郝雨凡：《美国对华政策内幕》，北京：台海出版社，1998年版，第430页。
③John G. Tower,“Congress VS the President:The Formulation and Implementation ofAmerican Foreign Policy”,Foreign Affairs (Winter1981), p.2.
④Matthew D. McCubbins (ed.),“Congressional Oversight Overlooked: Police Patrols versus Fire Alarms”,American Journal of Political Science, February1984, No.28.
①方曙兵，“国会与美国外交决策”，《东南亚纵横》，2009年第1期，第82页。
②托马斯·戴伊：《民主的嘲讽》，北京：世界知识出版社，1991年版，第270页。
③I.M. Destler,“The Rise of the National Security Assistant,” in Charles W. Jr. Kegley and Eugene R. Wittkopf (eds.),Perspectives on American Foreign Policy: Selected Readings (NewYork: St. Martin’s1983), p.262.
①托克维尔：《论美国的民主》，董果良译，北京：商务印书馆，1999年版，第261页。
②G. D. Gerson, Group Theories of Politics (Sage Publications, Inc.,1978), p.207.有关多元精英主义的阐述可参见：Anne N. Costain andAndrew S. McFarland (eds.), Social Movement and American Political Institutions (Lanham,Rowman&Littlefield Publishers, Inc.,1998); H. R.Mahood, Interest Groups Politics in America: a New Intensity
(Pr-entice-Hall Inc.,1990.); David K Ryden, Representation in Crisis: The Constitution, Interest Groups and PoliticalParties (Albany: State University of New York Press,1996), etc.
③GabrielA. BrahamAlmond, The American People and Foreign Policy (NewYork: Praeger,1965).
①Bernard Cohen, The Press and Foreign Policy (Princeton N.J.: Princeton University Press,1963), p.13.
②David M. Ricci, The Transformation of American Politics: the new Washington and the Rise of Think Tanks (NewHaven&London:Yale University Press.1997), p.16.
③C. Wright Mills, The Power Elites (London: Oxford University Press,1956), p.22.
④恩格斯：载《马克思恩格斯选集》第4卷，人民出版社，1995年版，第697页。
①Arthur M. Schlesinger, The Imperial Presidency (Boston: Houghton Mifflin Company),1973.
②Cecil VCrab Jr., The Doctrines of American Foreign Policy: Their Meaning, Role and Future (Louisiana StateUniversity Press,1982), p.67.
①David Baldwin,“Concept of Security”, Review of International Studies, Vol.23,1997, pp.5-26.
②参见英国战略家哈特（Liddell Hart）对大战略的定义：指导一个国家调动本国甚至盟国的所有军事、政治、经济和精神资源来达到其政治目标的最高战略。Liddell Hart, Strategy (NewYork: Frederick A. Praeger,1967), pp.335-336.
③Charles A. Kupchan, The End of the American Era: U.S. Foreign Policy and the Geopolitics of the21stCentury(Alfred A. Knopf,2002), p.26.
①Doug Bandow,“Keeping the Troops and the Money at Home”, Current History, Vol.93, No.579(January1994), p.8.
②Thomas Paine, Common Sense (NewYork: Penguin Books,1986), p.86; George Washington,“Farewell Address”,（http://www.ushistory.org/documents/farewelladdress.htm.）
③罗伯特·卡根：《天堂与实力》，肖蓉等译，北京：新华出版社2004年版，第132-133页。转引自李永成，“美国行为的战略文化根源：科林·德维克的美国战略文化理论述评”，《国际论坛》，2009年第6期，第45页。
④潘忠岐：“冷战后美国大战略的理论思辨”，《国际观察》，2006年第1期，第27页。
①互惠理论用以解决国际多边合作中的合作稀缺性，提出用“一报还一报”（tit-for-tat）、“强互惠”（strongreciprocity）和“利他性惩罚”（altruistic punishment）等策略来处理在缺乏中央权威的情况下，利己主义者如何摆脱囚徒困境从而实现合作的根本问题。相关研究见：RobertAxelord, Robert Keohane,“Achieving Cooperationunder Anarchy: Strategy and Institutions”, in Kenneth Oye (ed.), Cooperation under Anarchy (Princeton: PrincetonUniversity Press,1986); Samuel Bowles, Herbert Gintis,“The Evolution of Strong Reciprocity: Cooperation inHeterogeneous Population”, Theoretical Population Biology, No.1,2004; Herbert Gintis,“Strong Reciprocity andHuman Sociality”, Journal of Theoretical Biology, Vol.206, No.2,2000, etc.
②Colin Dueck, Reluctant Crusaders: Power, Culture and Changing in American Grand Strategy (Princeton andOxford: Princeton University,2006), p.26.
③Condoleezza Rice,“ABalance of Power that Favors Freedom”, in the International Information ProgramElectronic Journal:“U.S. National Security Strategy:ANew Era”, December2002.（http://usgovinfo.about.com/library/weekly/-aarice.htm.）
④Condoleezza Rice,“Rethinking the National Interest:American Realism for a New World”, Foreign Affairs, Vol.87,No.4(July/August,2008)（http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/64445/condoleezza-rice/rethinking-the-national-interest.）
①Andrew J. Bacevich,“What’s Isolationism?” Los Angels Times, February2,2006, p. B11.
②Barry Posen andAndrew Ross,“Competing Visions for U.S. Grand Strategy”, International Security, Vol.21, No.3,(Winter1996/1997), pp.5-53; Robert J.Art, Grand Strategy for America (Ithaca: Cornell University Press,2003),p.82; RobertArt,“Geopolitics Updated:The Strategy of Selective Engagement”, International Security, Vol.23, No.3(Winter1998/1999), pp.79-113; RobertArt,“ADefensible Defense:Americas’Grand Strategy after the Cold War”,International Security, Vol.15, No.4(Spring1991), pp.5-53.
①理查德·哈斯：《规制主义——冷战后的美国全球新战略》，北京：新华出版社，1999年版，第3页。
②George F. Kennan, Around the Cragged Hill: A Personal and Political Philosophy (New York: W. W. Norton,1993), p.180; Norman Ornstein,“Foreign Policy and the1992Elections”, Foreign Affairs, Vol.71, No.3(Summer1992), pp.3~4.
③Samuel P. Huntington,“The Lonely Superpower”, Foreign Affairs, Vol.78, No.2(March/April,1999).
④参见James Lindsay,“The NewApathy”, Foreign Affairs, Vol.79, No.5(September/October,2000), pp.2-3.
⑤James M. Lindsay,“The NewApathy: How an Uninterested Public is Reshaping Foreign Policy,” Foreign Affairs,September/October2000.(http://www.brook.edu/dybdocroot/views/articles/lindsay/2000sept_FA.htm.)
⑥George W. Bush, Address to a Joint Session of Congress and the American People, Office of the Press Secretary,September20,2001.(http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2001/09/20010920-8.html.)
⑧王鸣鸣，“美国的对外政策调整与‘布什主义’”，载李慎明、王逸舟主编：《2006年全球政治与安全报告》，北京：社会科学文献出版社，2006年版，第96-97页，
①George W. Bush, State of the Union Address, Office of the Press Secretary, January29,2002.(http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2002/01/20020129-11.html.)
②George W. Bush, President Out lines War Effort, Office of the Press Secretary, April17,2002.(http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2002/04/20020417-1.html.)
③即“打击恐怖主义国家战略”（National Strategy for Combating Terrorism）。
④George W. Bush, President Sworn-Into Second Term, Office of the Press Secretary, January20,2005.(http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2005/01/20050120-1.html.)
⑤The National Security Strategy of the United States of America, March2006, p.3.(http://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/nsc/2006/nss2006.pdf.)
⑥2001年9月底至11月初，美国政府抽调数百名联邦政府各部门高级官员组成“影子政府”，由空军F-16战斗机护送离开华盛顿，前往东海岸的秘密地下掩体工作，为的是万一再次发生重大袭击能确保联邦政府继续运转，保障国家的基础物资供应，维持交通、卫生、能源与电信网络及有关秩序，过一段时间再重组政府。与此同时，副总统（切尼）也一直在秘密地点办公，随时准备在总统遭遇不测时接任大位、维持国家机器运转。
⑦US Department of Defense, Quadrennial Defense Review Report, September30,2001.(http://www.defenselink.mil.)
②Richard N. Haass,“Reflections AYear after September11”, Remarks to International Institute for Strategic Studies,September13,2002.(http://www.state.gov/s/p/rem/.)
③George W. Bush, Commencement Address at the United States Military Academy in West Point, June1,2002.(http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=62730#axzz1UQ4ED4Hz.)
④Donald Henry Rumsfeld, Annual Defense Report2002.(http://www.defense.gov/adr/.)
⑤Office of the President, The National Security Strategy of the United States of America, September2002, pp.15-16.(http://usinfo.state.gov/topical/pol/terror/secstrat.htm.)
①George W. Bush,“ADistinctly American Internationalism”, Speech at Ronald Regan Library (November19,1999.)(http://www.newamericancentury.org/Iss11%20Nov29%20editorial.pdf.)
②Charles Krauthammer,“The Unipolar Moment”, Foreign Affairs, Vol.70, No.1(Winter1990/1991), pp.23-33;Dan Blumenthal,“Why It’s Still a Unipolar Era”, The Journal of American Enterprise Institute, March22,2011.(http://www.american.com/archive/2011/march/why-its-still-a-unipolar-era.)
③Joseph Nye, The Paradox of American Power: Why the World’s Only Superpower Can’t Go It Alone?(New York:Oxford University Press,2002), p.155.
④Ivo H. Daalder and James M. Lindsay, America Unbound: the Bush Revolution in Foreign Policy (WashingtonD.C.: Brookings Institution Press,2003), p.199.
⑤Michael J. Kelly,“The Bush Foreign Policy2001-2003: Unilateralist Theory in a Multilateral World”,(http://law.wustl.edu/Publications/WUGSLR/IssueArchive/Volume_2_1/Kelly_book_pages.pdf.); Thom Shanker,“White House Says the US is Not a Loner, Just Chooser”, New York Times, July31，2001.
①Sebastian Mallaby,“The Reluctant Imperialist:Terrorism, Failed States and the Case for American Empire”,Foreign Affairs, Vol.81, No.2(March/April,2002), pp.2-7.
②Arthur M. Schlesinger, Jr., The Cycles of American History (Boston: Houghton Mifflin Company,1986),pp.128-129.
③时殷弘，“美国权势的变迁”，《现代国际关系》，2006年第9期，第26页。
④比较有代表性的著述有：James Kurth,“Confronting the Unipolar Moment: theAmerican Empire and IslamicTerrorism”, Current History, Vol.101, No.659(December2002), p.403; John Bellamy Foster,“The Rediscovery ofImperialism”, Review of the Month, Vol.54, No.6(November2002); G. John Ikenberry,“America’s ImperialAmbition”, Foreign Affairs, Vol.81, No.5(September./October,2002); Martin Walker,“America’s Virtual Empire”,World Policy Journal (Summer2002).Andrew J. Bacevich, The American Empire (Harvard University Press,2002).
⑤G. John Ikenberry,“Liberalism and Empire: Logics of Order in theAmerican UnipolarAge”, Review ofInternational Studies, Vol.30, No.4,2004．
⑥Stephen Peter Rosen,“An Empire, if You can Keep it”, The National Interest, Spring2003, p.61.
⑦Bill Emmott,“Present at the Creation”, The Economist, June29,2002, p.10.
⑧George W. Bush,“Remarks by the president at the United StatesAir Force Academy Graduation”, White HousePress, June2,2004. in Robert Jervis (ed.), American Foreign Policy in a New Era (London: Routledge,2005), p.80.
⑨Robert G. Kaufman, In Defense of the Bush Doctrine (the University Press of Kentucky,2007), p.87.
①The National Security Strategy of the United States of America, September2002, p.3.
③贾斯廷·罗森伯格：《市民社会的帝国——现实主义国际关系理论批判》，洪邮生译，南京：江苏人民出版社，2002年版，序言。
④David C. Hendrickson,“Toward Universal Empire:The Dangerous Quest for Absolute Security”, World PolicyJournal, Fall2002, p.7.
⑤Kenneth N. Waltz,“American as a Model for the World?AForeign Policy Perspective,” Political Science andPolitics,Vol.24, No.4(December1991), pp.667-670.
⑥“War With Iraq is NOT inAmerica’s National Interest”, anAdvertisement from the op-ed page of the New YorkTimes, September26,2002, signed by33scholars of international relations.(http://www.bear-left.com/archive/2002/0926oped.html.）
⑦John J. Mearsheimer,“Hearts and Minds”, The National Interest, Vol.69(Fall2002), pp.13-16.
⑧John Lewis Gaddis,“Grand Strategy in the Second Term”, Foreign Affairs (January/February,2005), p.2.
①ABC/Washington Post, February12-16,2003; USAToday/CNN/Gallup Poll, January7-9,2005.
②Madeleine K. Albright,“Bridges, Bombs, or Bluster?” Foreign Affairs (September/October,2003), p.8.
③Ivan Krastev,“TheAnti-American Century”, Journal of Democracy, Vol.15, No.2(April,2004), pp.5-16.
④Melvyn P. Leffler,“9/11and the Past and Future of American Foreign Policy”, International Affairs, Vol.79, No.5,2003, pp.1050-1051.
⑤Chuck Hagel,“A Republican Foreign Policy”, Foreign Affairs, Vol.64, No.2(July/August,2004), p.65.
①全球化和全球主义的“稀薄”（thin）、“浓厚”(thick)之说出自：Robert O. Keohane and Joseph S. Nye Jr.,“Globalization:What’s New? What’s Not?(And So What?)” Foreign Policy (Spring2000), pp.109-110.
②Daniel Yergin,“Globalization: the Inside Story of Our New Interconnected World”, Social Education (NationalCouncil for the Social Studies), Vol.66,2002.
③宋德星：“后冷战时代大战略缔造特有的困难”，《国际政治》，2009年第3期，第7页。
④IMF, World Economic Outlook2009(Washington DC: International Monetary Fund,2009), pp.169-176.
⑤World Bank, Total GDP2000:World Development Indicators Database,April2002; World Bank, Gross DomesticProduct2009:World Development Indicators Database, July1,2010.转引自韦宗友：“新兴大国群体性崛起与全球治理变革”，《国际论坛》，2011年第2期，第8页。
⑥因巴西(Brazil)、俄罗斯(Russia)、印度(India)、中国(China)这四个国家首字母的缩写BRIC发音类似英文单词中的“brick”(砖块)，故名“金砖四国”。Jim O’Neill,“Building Better Global Economic, BRICs”, in Goldman Sachs:Global Economics Paper, No.66, December30,2001, p.1-3.统计数据另见：Goldman Sachs,“BRICs by theNumbers”, December2009.(http://www.goldmansachs.co.nz/ideas/brics/bricsat8/index.html.)
⑦Dominic Wilson and Roopa Purushothaman,“Dreaming with BRICs: the Path to2050”, in Goldman Sachs: GlobalEconomics Paper, No.99, October1,2003, p.1.
⑧包括印尼、菲律宾、孟加拉国、越南、伊朗、韩国、墨西哥、埃及、尼日利亚、巴基斯坦和土耳其。见：“TheNext11”, December12,2005.(http://www.amazines.com/Next_Eleven_related.html.); Jim O’Neill and AnnaStupnytska,“The Long-term Outlook for the BRICs and N11Post Crisis”, in Goldman Sachs: Global EconomicsPaper, No.192, December4,2009.
②IMF, World Economic Outlook, October2008.(http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2008/02/.)
④黄仁伟：“新兴大国参与全球治理的利弊”，《现代国际关系》，2009年第11期，第21页。
⑤Dodd Randall and Paul Mills,“Outbreak: US Subprime Contagion”, Finance&Development (IMF), June2008,p.14.
①转引自吴一群，刘榆：“刍议2008年全球金融危机的影响及启示”，《东南学术》，2009年第1期，第29-30页。
②保罗·肯尼迪：《没有永久的霸权》，劳垅等译，沈阳：辽宁人民出版社，1989年版，第304-305页。
③OECD, Main Economic Indicators: Sources and Definitions, June2000, p.263.(http://browse.oecdbookshop.org/oecd/pdfs/free/3100131e.pdf.)
④Peter J. Katzenstein, A World of Region: Asia and Europe in the American Imperium (Ithaca, New York: CornellUniversity Press,2005);ASurvey ofAmerica’s World Role, The Economist, June29,2002, p.4.
⑤http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/natsec/RL33110.pdf.
⑥Joel Bainerman,“How Much Will the War in Iraq Cost the U.S. Taxpayer?” The Middle East, Issue364(February,2006), pp.16-17.事实上，美国在伊拉克战场花费的确切数字至今难以统计，外界的估算在4万亿美元左右。
⑦Fred Bergsten,“The Dollar and the Deficits: How Washington can Prevent the Next Crisis”, Foreign Affairs(November/December,2009).
①U.S. National Intelligence Council, Global Trends2025: A Transformed World (Washington DC: US GovernmentPrinting Office,2008), pp.1-14.
②Tony Haipin,“Brazil, Russia India and China Form Bloc to Challenge US Dominance”, Times, June17,2009.(http://www.timesonline.co.hk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/article6514737.ece.); Sheldon Fliger,“BRIC SummitEnd of Dominance of U.S. Dollar”, Huffington Post, June17,2009.(http://www.huffingtonpost.com/sheldon-fliger.)
③U.S. National Intelligence Council, Global Trends2025: A Transformed World, p.28.
④伊曼纽尔·沃勒斯坦：《现代世界体系》，龙来寅等译，北京：高等教育出版社，1998年版，第一卷，第58页。
⑤汤因比（Arnold Toynbee）、沃勒斯坦、戈登斯坦（Joshua Goldstein）和莫德尔斯基（George Modelski）等学者认为国际体系转型当中存在“以一个世纪”或者“一百年多一点”的战争和平周期，其间反复出现大国争夺国际体系主导权的战争，如16世纪的西班牙和葡萄牙、17世界的荷兰、18世纪的法国和19世纪的英国、20世纪的美国等等。具体论述参见：Immanuel Wallerstein, The Politics of the World Economy (Cambridge: CambridgeUniversity Press,1984), pp.40-45; George Modelski, Long Cycles in World Politics (Hampshire and London:Macmillan Press,1987), pp.40-41; Joshua S. Goldstein,“Kondratieff Waves as War Cycles”, International StudiesQuarterly, No.4,1985, pp.413-416.
⑥杨洁勉，“新兴大国群体在国际体系转型中的战略选择”，《国际政治》，2008年第9期，第5页。
①王金强，《“他者”的崛起与后美国时代下的权力转移》，《美国研究》，2010年第1期，第131页。
②Fareed Zakaria, The Post-American World (New York: Norton,2008), pp.32-35,44,210.
③The National Security Strategy of the United States of America, March2006.
①韩隽，“布什政府转型外交评析”，《新疆大学学报》，2008年第6期，第25页。
②Condoleezza Rice,“Rethinking the National Interest:American Realism for a New World”, Foreign Affairs(July/August2008).
⑤Javier Solana,“The Transatlantic Rift US Leadership After September11”, Harvard International Review, Issue4(Winter2002), p. XXIV.
⑥Steven Everts and Daniel Keohane,“The European Convention and EU Foreign Policy: Learn from Failure”,Survival, Vol.45, No.3(Autumn2003), p.177.
⑦有关新保守主义的论点与研究参见：Robert Kagan and William Kristol (eds.), Present Dangers: Crisis andOpportunity in American Foreign and Defense Policy (San Francisco: Encounter Books,2000); John Ehrman, TheRise of Neoconservatism: Intellectuals and Foreign Affairs (New Haven and London: Yale University Press,1995);Gary Dorrien, The Neoconservative Mind: Politics, Culture, and the War of Ideology (Philadelphia: TempleUniversity Press,1993); Peter Steinfels, The Neoconservatives: The Men Who Are Changing Americans Politics(New York: Simon and Schuster,1979); Irving Kristol,“American Conservatism1945-1995”, The Public Interest,Fall1995, pp.80-91; Norman Podhoretz,“Neoconservatism: A Eulogy”, Commentary, March1996, pp.19-27;William Kristol and Robert Kagan,“Toward a Neo-Reaganite Foreign Policy”, Foreign Affairs, July/August1996;Irving Kristol,“Foreign Policy in an Age of Ideology”, The National Interest, Fall1985, etc.
①Charles Krauthammer,“The Unipolar Moment”, pp.24,29,33.
②Irving Kristol,“The Neoconservative Persuasion: What It Was, and What It Is”, The Weekly Standard, August25,2003, pp.24-25.
④如国防部副部长保罗·沃尔福威茨（Paul Wolfowitz），负责国防部政策事务的副部长道格拉斯·菲斯（DouglasFeith），副总统办公室主任兼副总统国家安全顾问刘易斯·利比(Lewis Libby)，国务院负责军控和国际安全事务的副国务卿约翰·博尔顿（John Bolton），负责全球事务的助理国务卿保拉·多布里扬斯基(Paula Dobriansky)，国防政策委员会主席理查德·珀尔（Richard Perle）等。除了这些政府公职人员，美国还有一批新保守主义分子活跃在媒体和智库，主要有《国家利益》（National Interest）主编欧文·克里斯托(Irving Kristol)和他的儿子、《旗帜周刊》（Weekly Standard）主编威廉·克里斯托、《华盛顿邮报》专栏作家查尔斯·克劳塞默(CharlesKrauthammer)、新闻记者罗伯特·卡普兰（Robert Kaplan)、卡内基国际和平基金会的罗伯特·卡根、“新美国世纪计划”副主任汤姆·唐纳利（Tom Donnally）和耶鲁大学教授唐纳德·卡根（Donald Kagan）等人。
⑥张建新，“布什政府单边主义外交政策的困境”，《和平与发展》，2007年第1期，第31页。
⑦拉氏并不赞同新保守主义不但要消灭萨达姆政权而且要求美国承担重建伊拉克民主的责任，认为政权建设是伊拉克人的事情，为此拒绝向伊拉克增兵。此举受到威廉·克里斯托等新保守主义分子的攻击。参见：陈雅莉，“陨落中的美国新保守主义”，《华盛顿观察》2003年第40期。
⑧Alan Beattie,“US Economy Contracts6.2%”, Financial Times, February7,2009.
②Joseph S. Nye,“Testing Obama’s Foreign Policy”.(http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/nye77.)
③Prepared Remarks of President Barack Obama:“ANew Strategy for Afghanistan and Pakistan”, Washington, D.C.,March27,2009.
⑤Joe Biden’s Remarks at Munich Global Defense Conference (February7,2009), The Washington File, February9,2009.
⑦中国社科院美国研究所美国外交研究室，“美国对外战略的调整及对我国的影响”，《和平与发展》，2010年第5期，第16页。
⑧约瑟夫·奈于2003年发明该词，但普遍认为最先将这一概念引入公共政策研究的是美国前驻联合国代表苏珊娜·诺赛尔（Suzanne Nossel），她在2004年春的《外交》杂志上发表了题为“巧实力”的文章。Suzanne Nossel,
“Smart Power”, Foreign Affairs, Vol.83, Issue2(March/April2004).
①Joseph S. Nye Jr.,“The U.S. Can Reclaim ‘Smart Power’”, Los Angeles Times, January21,2009.
②陈积敏，“美国领导：奥巴马政府《国家安全战略报告》评析”，《和平与发展》，2010年第4期，第41页。
③Dennis Blair, Annual Threat Assessment of the Intelligence Community for the Senate Committee on Intelligence,February12,2009.
①Office of the President, The National Security Strategy of the United States of America, September2002, p.1.
②The White House,“The National Security Strategy”, May2010.
③刘建飞，“美国‘民主联盟’战略的困境”，《美国研究》，2010年第3期，第16页。
④Immanuel Wallerstein, The Decline of American Power: The U.S. in a Chaotic World (W. W. Norton&Company,2006),p.503.
⑤约翰·柯林斯：《大战略》，北京：：军事科学院出版社，1978年版，第29页。
⑥James Der Derian，“9/11”事件及其对国际关系学科的影响”，《世界经济与政治》，2006年第5期。另参见：
①Immanuel Wallerstein,“The Eagle Has Crash Landed”, Foreign Policy, July/August,2002.
②Bob Woodward, Bush at War (NewYork: Simon&Schuster,2002),1stEdition, p.33.
③George W. Bush tellsABC News’Charles Gibson about His First100Days in Office in Good Morning,America”,ABC News, April25,2001.(http://abcnews.go.com/WN/Politics/story.)
①Bob Woodward, State of Denial: Bush at WarⅢ(NewYork: Simon&Schuster,2005), p.33.
②Tomas Donnelly,“What’s Next? PreservingAmerican Primacy, Institutionalizing Unipolarity National SecurityOutlook”, AEI online (Washington, May1,2003), p.1.
③US Department of Defense, Quadrennial Defense Review Report, September30,2001.
④The National Security Strategy of the United States of America, September2002, p.27.
⑤The National Security Strategy of the United States of America, March2006.
⑦Condoleezza Rice,“Promoting the National Interest”, Foreign Affairs (January/February2003), p.55.
①托克维尔：《论美国的民主》，董果良译，北京：商务印书馆，1988年版，第518页。
②JeffreyA. Krames, The Rumsfield Way：Leadership Wisdom of a Battle-Hardened Maverick (Quebecor World Press,2002), pp.168-169.
①朱峰，“奥巴马政府的外交与安全战略：‘变革时代’已经来临？”，《和平与发展》，2009年第3期，第22页。
②“The War over the Wonks: the List of the National Security and Foreign PolicyAdvisers to the LeadingPresidential Candidates from Both Parties”, Washington Post, October2,2008.
③United States Foreign Policy:Asia, by Conlon Associates, Ltd., November1,1959(Washington: GovernmentPrinting Office,1959).
④U.S Congressional Record,81stCongress,“U.S. Policy with Respect to Mainland China: Hearings”, secondsession on U.S. Policy with Respect to Mainland China, March8,10,16,18,21,28,30(Washington: U.S.Government Printing Office,1966).
⑤Richard Moorsteen and Morton Abramowitz, Remaking China policy; U.S.-China Relations and GovernmentalDecision-making (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press,1971).
⑥Zalmay Khalilzad,“Congage China”, RAND Issue Papers187,1999.
⑤James Allen Smith, The Idea Brokers: Think Tanks and the Rise of the New Policy Elite (New York: The Free Press,1990), p.206.
①E.Abelsond, Do Think Tanks Matters? Assessing the Impact of Public Policy Institutes (London: McGill-Queen’sUniversity Press,2002), p.90.
①David Lampton,“Paradigm Lost:The Demise of ‘Weak China’”, The National Interest, No.81(Fall2005),pp.73-81.
②Amelia Newcomb,“Is China JapanAll Over Again?”(http://www.csmonitor.com/2005/0819/p01s04-woap.html.)
③Editorial,“Emerging China”, Washington Post, July10,2005.
④Robert Kagan,“The Illusion of ‘Managing’China”, The Washington Post, May15,2005, p. B07.
⑤Paul Wolfowitz, Defense Planning Guidance.(http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/ages/frontline/shows/iraq/etc/wolf.html.)
⑥约翰·米尔斯海默：《大国政治的悲剧》，王义桅、唐小松译，上海：上海人民出版社，2003年版，第4页。
⑦John Mearsheimer,“The Future of theAmerican Pacific”, Foreign Affairs (September/October,2001), p.54.
⑧肯尼斯·沃尔兹：《国际政治理论》，信强译，上海：上海人民出版社，2003年版，第126页。
⑨Roger Cliff,“Beware Beijing’s MilitaryAmbitions”, Los Angeles Times,August7,2005.
①Abraham Denmark and Nirav Patel (eds.), China’s Arrival: A Strategic Framework for a Global Relationship,Center for a NewAmerican Security, September2009.(http://www.cnas.org/files/documents/publications/CNAS%20China’s%20Arrival_Fina%l20Report.pdf.)
②Nina Hachigian, Michael Schiffer and Winny Chen,“AGlobal Imperative:AProgressive Approach to U.S.-ChinaRelations in the21stCentury”, August13,2008.
(http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2008/08/china_report.html.)
③Nina Hachigian, Winny Chen and Christopher Beddor, China’s New Engagement in the International System,November2009.(http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2009/11/pdf/chinas_new_engagement.pdf.)
④《账簿中国：美国智库透视中国崛起》，隆国强等译，中国发展出版社，2008年版，第132页。
⑤Nirav Patel,“The Strategic Environment of U.S-Sino Relations”, in Abraham Denmark and Nirav Patel (eds.),China’s Arrival: A Strategic Framework for a Global Relationship, September2009.
⑥Philip Bowring,“Who Needs Whom More?” New York Times, February3,2010.
⑦Suan L. Shirk, China: Fragile Superpower, p.109.
⑧David Shambaugh,“China Through the Looking Glass”, The National Interest, February29,2008.
⑨John-Mare F. Blanchard and Sujian Guo (eds.),“Harmonious World” and China’s New Foreign Policy (Lanham:Rowman and Littlefield-Lexington,2008), pp.3-4.
①Warren I. Cohen,“China and the West in Historical Perspective”, The Newsletter of Watchman Center of ForeignPolicy Research Institute, Vol.13, No.6,April2008.
②Kenneth D. Johnson,“China’s Strategic Culture: a Perspective for the United States”, Strategic Studies Institute,U.S.Army War College,2009.(http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/PUB924.pdf.)
④United States Institute of Peace, The QDR in Perspective: Meeting America’s National Security Needs In the21stCentury (Washington, D.C.: Institute of Peace), July29,2010, pp.59-60.
⑤Christopher J. Pehrson, String of Pearls: Meeting the Challenge of China’s Rising PowerAcross theAsian Littoral(Carlisle:ArmyWar College,2006), pp.2-3.
⑥Dan Blumenthal,“Sea Change in Pacific”, The American, March25,2009.(http://american.com/archive/2009/march-2009/sea-change-in-the-pacific.)
⑦Joe Studwell, The China Dream: The Elusive Quest for the Greatest Untapped Market on Earth (London: ProfileBooks,2002).
⑧Mark Leonard,“The Battle for China’s Future”.(http://markleonard.net/journalism/chinaft/.)
①David M. Lampton, The Three Faces of Chinese Power: Might, Money and Minds, p.274.
②Ralph Cossa, Brad Gloserman, Michael McDevitt (eds.),“The United States and the Asia-Pacific Region: SecurityStrategy for the Obama Administration”, CSIS Pacific Forum, February2009.
③Defense Strategic Guidance (DSG) of U.S.A., January5,2012.(http://www.defense.gov/news/Defense_Strategic_Guidance.pdf.)
④Christopher Layne,“Offshore Balancing Revisited”, The Washington Quarterly, Vo.25, No.2(Spring2002), p.235.
①John J. Mearsheimer,“The Future of the American Pacifier”, Foreign Affairs, Vol.80, No.5(September/October,2001), pp.48-50; Christopher Layne,“China’s Challenge to U.S. Hegemony”, Current History, January2008, p.15.
②Christopher Layne,“China’s Challenge to U.S. Hegemony”, p.15.
③Evan S. Medeiros,“Strategic Hedging and the Future of Asia-Pacific Stability”, The Washington Quarterly, Vol.29,No.1(Winter2005-2006), pp.145~167.
④Richard N. Haass,“The World thatAwaits”.(http://www.newsweek.com/id/165648/page/1.)
⑤Abraham M. Denmark,“China’sArrival:AFramework for a Global Relationship”, inAbraham M. Denmark andNirav Patel (eds.), China’s Arrival: a Strategic Framework for a Global Relationship, p.169.
①卡尔·施米特：《政治的概念》，刘宗坤等译，上海：上海人民出版社，2004年版，第107页。
②Charles Krauthammer,“WhyWe Must Contain China”, Time, July31,1995, pp.75-76.
①William Kristol,“Democracy in China: How About Promoting Democracy Instead of Engaging with Dictators?”Weekly Standard, June25,2001, p.11.
②Paul Wolfowitz, Statesmanship in the New Century (San Francisco, California: Present Dangers, Encounter Books,2002), p.324.
③George W. Bush, A Charge to Keep (Willian Morrow and Company Inc.,2004), pp.135-138.
④Stephen Mansfield, The Faith of George W. Bush (Penguin Group, Inc.,2004), p.59.
⑥Walter Russell Mead,“The Carter Syndrome”, Foreign Policy (January/February,2010), p.58.
①Barack Obama Inaugural Address, January20,2009.(http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/inaugural-address/.)
②Zbigniew Brzezinski,“From Hope to Audacity: Appraising Obama’s Foreign Policy”, Foreign Affairs(January/February,2010), p.18.
③Pew Research Center,“U.S. Image”.(http://pewglobal.org/database/?indicator=1&country=233.)
④Nicholas Kristof,“Make Diplomacy, Not War”, New York Times,August9,2008.
⑤Kenneth Bacon,“Letter to the Candidates: End the Militarization of Foreign Aid”, March13,2008.
⑦Dana Priest, The Mission: Waging War and Keeping Peace with America's Military (New York：W. W. Norton&Company,2003),1stEdition, p.14.
①Robert Gates,“ABalanced Strategy: Reprogramming the Pentagon for ANew Age”, Foreign Affairs(January/February,2009), p.27.
②Speech byAdmiral Mullen on U.S.-China Relations, July11,2011.
(http://iipdigital.usembassy.gov/st/english/texttrans/2011/07/20110712154723su0.2862622.html.)
③Hillary Rodham Clinton,“National Security&Foreign Policy Priorities in the FY2013InternationalAffairsBudget”, Testimony Before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Washington, D.C., February28,2012.(http://www.state.gov/secretary/rm/2012/02/184847.htm)
①Albert Weinberg, Manifest Destiny: A Study of Nationalist Expansionismin American History (Chicago:Quadrangle Books,1963), pp.74-75.
②斯蒂芬·曼斯菲尔德：《活出使命——布什总统的信仰》，林淑真译，北京：中国档案出版社，2006年版，第8页。
③David Gelernter, Americanism: The Fourth Great Western Religion (Washington D.C.: Doubleday,2007), p.4.
④Abraham Denmark and Nirav Patel (eds.),“China’s Arrival:AStrategic Framework for a Global Relationship”,Chapter6.
⑤The White House, The National Security Strategy of the United States of America, May2010, p.39.
⑥Financial SummaryTables: Fiscal Year2008; Financial SummaryTables: Fiscal Year2009; Financial SummaryTables: Fiscal Year2010.(http://www.defenselink.mil/comptroller/defbudget.)
①Robert S. Ross,“Myth in Here Be Dragons: Is China a Military Threat?” The National Interest, September/October,2009, p.31.
②Statement of Leon Panetta before the Senate Armed Service Committee (Washington, D.C.), June11,2011.(http://armed-services.senate.gov/Transcripts/2011/06%20June/11-47%20-%206-9-11.pdf.)
③Bob Woodward, Obama’s War (New York: Simon&Schuster,2010), pp.138-139,198-199,289,241,370.
①U.S. Department of Defense,“Quadrennial Defense Review Report2010”, pp.28-29.
②U.S. Department of Defense,“Annual Report to Congress:The Military Power of the P.R.C,2011”.(http://www. defense.gov/pubs/pdfs/China_Military_Power_Report_2011.pdf.)
③Office of the Director of National Intelligence,“The National Intelligence Strategy of the USA”.(http://www.dni.gov/reports/2009_NIS.pdf.)
⑤U.S. Department of Defense,“Annual Report to Congress:The Military Power of the P.R.C2009”, p. I.(http://www. defense.gov/pubs/pdfs/China_Military_Power_Report_2009.pdf.)
⑥Robert M. Gates,“ABalanced Strategy: Reprogramming the Pentagon for ANewAge”, p.33.
⑦转引自刘鹏，“奥巴马政府对华军事战略的两面性”，《国际资料信息》，2010年第8期，第2页。
⑧U.S. Department of Defense,“Quadrennial Defense Review Report2010”, pp.31-34.
⑨Joint Statement of William J. Perry and Stephen J. Hadley before the HouseArmed Services Committee Hearingon “Quadrennial Defense Review Independent Panel”(Washington, D.C.) July29,2010.
⑩U.S. Department of Defense, National Security Space Strategy, February4,2011.(http://www.defense.gov/home/features/2011/0111_nsss/.)
③Fred Bergsten,“Correcting the Chinese Exchange Rate:An Action Plan”, Statement Before the Committee onWays and Means, U.S. House of Representatives, March24,2010.
④Niall Ferguson,“The End of Chimerica:Amicable Divorce or Current War?” Statement Before the Committee onWays and Means, U.S. House of Representatives, March24,2010; also see: Niall Ferguson and Moritz Schularick,“The End of Chimerica”, Harvard Business School Working Paper10-037, October2009.
⑤Paul Krugman,“Chinese NewYear”, New York Times, December31,2009.(http://nytimes.com/2010/01/01/opinion/01krugman.html.)
⑦Robert Scott,“Unfair China Trade Costs Local Jobs”, Economic Policy Institute Briefing Paper, March23,2010, p.1.
⑧“Economic Report of the President”, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington2010, p.25.
⑨Hillary Clinton and Timothy Geithner,“ANew U.S. Dialogue with China”, The Wall Street Journal, July27,2009,p.A15.
⑩The White House, Office of Press Secretary,“Remarks by the President at the Export-Import Bank’sAnnualConference”, March11,2010.(http://www.whitehousr.gov/the-press-office/remarks-president-export-import-banks-annual-conference.)
①Barack Obama,“Exporting our Way to Stability”, New York Times, November5,2010.(http://www.nytimes.com.)
②Remarks by the President Obama in State of Union Address, January25,2012.
（http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/01/25/remarks-president-state-union-address.）在2012年3月1日美国贸易代表处向国会提交的《2012年贸易政策议程》（2012Trade PolicyAgenda）中再次重复了该出口翻番计划。
④巴拉克·奥巴马：《我们相信变革：巴拉克·奥巴马重塑美国未来希望之路》，孟宪波译，中信出版社，2009年版，第68页。
①据中国商务部统计，美国2009年对中国发起反倾销反补贴合并调查10起、单独反补贴调查2起、“337条款调查”8起、采取特别保障措施1起，涉案金额总共近80亿美元。见中国商务部：《2009年国别贸易投资环境报告·美国》,第152、167页。(http://gpjmofcom.gov.cn/accessory/201004/1271300015261.pdf.)
②这一波人事调整包括：国务院负责管理、资源的副国务卿雅各布·卢（Jacob Lew）接替彼得·欧尔萨格（PeterOrszag）任白宫行政管理和预算局局长，摩根大通银行中西部总裁威廉·戴利（William Daley）接替吉布斯
（Robert Gibbs）任白宫办公厅主任，基尼·斯珀林（Gene Sperling）接替萨默斯（Larry Summers）任国家经济委员会主任和总统首席经济顾问，等。
③Testimony of Treasury SecretaryTimothy F. Geithner,“China’s Currency Policies and the U.S.-China EconomicRelationship Before the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs and House Ways and Means Committees”.(http://www. treasury.gov/press/releases/tg858.htm.)
④阮建平、江涌，“双重‘再平衡’与美国对华政策调整”，《现代国际关系》，2010年第11期，第42页。
⑤中国美国经济学会、浦东美国经济研究中心：《全球经济失衡与中美经贸关系》，上海：上海社会科学院出版社，2007年版，第227页。
①Rebecca K.C. Hersman, Friends and Foes: How Congress and the President Really Make Foreign Policy(Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press,2000), p.2.
②罗伯特·沙特（Robert Sutter）先后在国会研究处、中央情报局、美国国务院等部门任东亚事务分析员，离开政府后任教于乔治城大学，2011年转入乔治·华盛顿大学。
③郝雨凡、张燕冬：《无形的手：与美国中国问题专家点评中美关系》，北京：新华出版社，2000年版，第389页。
④Joseph J. Schatz,“Duet With the Dragon”, CQ Weekly, June15,2009, p.1373.
⑤Howard J.Wiarda,“Foreign Policy without Illusion: How Foreign Policy-making Works in the United States”, inHoward J. Wiarda (ed.), On the Agenda: Current Issues and Conflicts in U.S. Foreign Policy (Little, Brown HigherEducation,1990), p.177.
①参见：Susan Webb Hammond, Congressional Caucus in National Policy Making (Baltimore: The Johns HopkinsUniversity Press,1998), p.116.
②U.S. Department of Defense,“Annual Report to Congress: Military and Security Developments Involving theP.R.C.,2010”.(http://www.defense.gov/pubs/pdfs/2010_CMPR_Final.pdf.); U.S. Department of Defense,“AnnualReport to Congress: Military and Security Developments Involving the P.R.C.,2011”.(http://www.defense.gov/pubs/pdfs/2011_cmpr_final.pdf.)
③The Final Report of the Quadrennial Defense Review Independent Panel,“The QDR in Perspective: MeetingAmerica’s National Security Needs in the21st Century”, Washington, DC: United States Institute of Peace,2010, pp.26,51-60.(http://www.usip.org/files/qdr/qdrreport.pdf.)
④Letter to President Obama, May26,2011.(http://menendez.senate.gov/newsroom/press/release/?id=07c1ba2e-c59d-4fff-b14d-1d6834b3a19d.)
①Nelson Report, July22,2011.
⑤参见张光，刁大明，袁婷：“美国国会议员访台现象研究”，《当代亚太》，2010年第3期，第67页。
⑥Jr. Richard Fenno, Congressmen in Committee (Boston: Little, Brown and Company,1973), p.1.
①“China Manipulates its Currency, Say130Congressmen”, March15,2010.(http://wallstreetpit.com/19954-china-manipulates-its-currency-say-130-congressmen.)
②“Bipartisan Group of Senators Unveils New Legislations to Crack Down on Unfair Currency Manipulation byCountries Like China”.(http://schumer.senate.gov/New_Website/Record.CEM?ID=323135.)
②Jim O’Neill,“Tough Talk on China Ignores Economic Reality”.(http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001032051/en.);Dan Newman and Frank Newman,“Hands off the Yuan”.(http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/03/16/hands_off_the_yuan.)
③李莉，“冷战后时期美国国会对华经贸议案的表决特点”，《现代国际关系》，2008年第4期，第20-21页。
④Congressional Record, H5219, June18,1987.Cease Engaging inActs of Cultural, Linguistic, and Religious Suppression DirectedAgainst the Uyghur People”,May21,2009.
(http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/z? c111:S.RES.155.)
①“Demolition of Kashgar’s Old City Draws Concerns Over Cultural Heritage Protection, Population Resettlement”,June17,2009.(http://www.uyghurcongress.org.)
②刘卫东，“美国国会对中国新疆问题的干涉”，《国际资料信息》，2010年第2期，第3页。
④Nelson Report, March3,2010.
⑤Miroslav Nincic，Democracy and Foreign Policy: The Fallacy of Political Realism (NewYork: ColumbiaUniversity Press,1992), pp.71-72.
⑥George Koo,“When Congress Demonizes China, Free Enterprise Suffers”, Chinese American Forum, Vol. XXI,No.1,2005, pp.39-40.
⑥堵芳芳，“2010年美国中期选举与中美关系”，第37页。
①John Evans,“HaveAmericansAttitudes Become More Polarized?An Update”, Social Science Quarterly, Vol.84,No.1,2003, p.73.
②Barbara Sinclair, Party Wars: Polarization and the Politics of National Policy Making (Norman, OK: University ofOklahoma Press,2006), p.3.
③Guide to Congress (Congressional Quarterly Inc.,1982),3rdEdition, p.90.
④杰里尔·罗赛蒂：《美国对外政策的政治学》，周启朋、傅耀祖译，北京：世界知识出版社，2005年版，第289页。
⑤彼得·海斯·格里斯，H.迈克尔·克劳森，“政治取向与美国对华政策”，《美国研究》，2008年第3期，第48页。
①Robert C. Grady: Restoring Real Representation (Chicago: University of Illinois Press,1993), p.163.
②Anne N. Costain and Andrew S. McFarland (eds.), Social Movement and American Political Institutions (Laham,Rowsman&Littlefield Publishers, Inc.,1993), pp.6-7.
③Bruce I. Newman, The Marketing of the Presidency: Political Marketing as Campaign Strategy (California: SagePublications,1994), p.12.
①Nelson Report, February17,2010.
②Dwight D. Eisenhower,“Military-Industrial Complex Speech”, January17,1961.(http://www.yele.edu/lawweb/avalon/presiden/speeches/eisenhower001.html.)
③Rodrigue Tremblay,“The Five Pillars of the U.S. Military-Industrial Complex”, September25,2006.(http://www.thenewamericanempire.com/author.html.)
④Richard F. Grimmett,“CRS Report for Congress: Conventional Arms Transfers to Developing Nations,2000-2007”, October23,2008.
⑤王志军，“美国军工复合体及其对中美关系的消极影响”，《上海交通大学学报(哲学社会科学版)》，2009年第4期，第29页。
⑥John Bellamy Foster, Hannah Holleman and Robert McChesney,“The U.S. Imperial Triangle and MilitarySpending”, Monthly Review, October10,2008.(http://monthlyreview.org/081001fooster-hol-leman-mcchesncy.php#volume.)
⑦US-Taiwan Business Council to Release Independent Analysis Report on “The Balance of Air Power in theTaiwan Strait”, May2010.(http://www.us-taiwan.org/pressrelease/2010may10reportonbalanceofairpowerintaiwanstrait.pdf.)
⑧Bob Cox,“For Lockheed Martin’s F16, a Dwindling List of Likely Buyers,” Fort Worth Star-Telegram,May29,2011.(http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2011/05/29/114949/for-lockheed-martins-f16-a-dwindling.html.)
⑨2009年3月8日，中国海监船只与美国海军“无瑕”号测量船（USNS Impeccable T-AGOS-23）在南海海域发
①Brendan McGarry,“2008MilitaryTimes Poll:Wary about Obama”, Army Times, January7,2009.(http://www.armytimes.com/news/2008/12/military_poll_main_122908/.)
②Mark P. Petracca (ed.): The Politics of Interests: Interest Groups Transformed (Boulder:Westview Press,1992), p.67.
③Amanda Bennett:“American Reporters in China: Romantics and Cynics”, in C.C. Lee (ed.), Voices of China: TheInterplay of Politics and Journalism(New York: Guilford Press,1990), p.266.
①李甜华，“2008年北京奥运会美国媒体上的中国形象——以《纽约时报》为例”，上海外国语大学硕士学位论文，2009年，第14页。
④托马斯·R·戴伊：《自上而下的政策制定》，菊方安、吴忧译，北京：中国人民大学出版社,，2002年版，第97页。
①熊志勇，“中美建交以来美国民意对中国认识的分析”，《国际论坛》，2010年9月（第12卷、第5期），第2-4页。
②The Chicago Council on GlobalAffairs,“Asia Soft Power Survey”.(http://www.thechicagocouncil.org/dynamic_page.php?id=75.)
③http://www.pollingreport.com.nations.htm;http://www.gallup.com/poll/115258/Canada-Remains-Americans-Favored-Nations.aspx.
④The Chicago Council on GlobalAffairs,“Constrained Internationalism:Adapting to New Realities, Results of a2010National Survey ofAmerican Public Opinion”(Chicago:The Chicago Council on Global Affairs,2010), pp.50-51.
⑥Lydia Saad,“U.S. Surpasses China in Forecast for Economic Powerhouse: Economic Confidence in U.S. SurgesAmong Democrats”, February16,2009(http://www.gallup.com/poll/114658/Surpasses-China-Forecast-Economic-Powerhouse.aspx.)
⑦ABC News/Washington Post Poll, February4-8,2010. See: John Pomfret and Jon Cohen,“Poll Shows Concernabout American Influence Waning as China’s Grows”, Washington Post, February25,2010, p. A11.
⑧U.S. Seen as Less Important, China as More Powerful, December3,2009.(http://people-press.org/report/569/americas-place-in-the-world.)转引自袁征：“美国民众如何看待当今中国”，《和平与发展》，2010年第6期，第42页。
⑨Lymar Morales,“Americans See Newer Threats on Par with Ongoing Conflicts”.(http://www.gallup.com/poll/117292/Americans-Newer-Threats-Par-Ongoing-Conflicts.aspx.)
①The Chicago Council on GlobalAffairs,“Constrained Internationalism,2010”, p.52.
②CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll, November13-15,2009.(http://www.pollingreport.com/china/htm.)
③CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll, June26-28,2009.(http://www.pollingreport.com/china.htm.)
④The Chicago Council on GlobalAffairs,“Constrained Internationalism,2010”, pp.30-31; CNN/Opinion ResearchCorporation Poll, November13-15,2009; CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll, February12-15,2010.
⑤GabrielA. Almond, The American People and Foreign Policy (New York: Harcourt, Brace,1950), p.55.
⑥The Chicago Council on GlobalAffairs,“Constrained Internationalism,2010”, p.17.
⑦CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll, February12-15,2010;The Chicago Council on GlobalAffairs,“Constrained Internationalism,2010”, p.52.
①沃尔特·李普曼：《公众舆论》，阎克文、江红译，上海：上海人民出版社，2002年版，第67页。
②塞缪尔·亨廷顿：《文明的冲突与世界秩序的重建》，周琪等译，北京：新华出版社，2005年版，第257页。
③约翰·伊肯伯里认为，冷战后美国外交政策体现为两大战略支柱：现实主义的政治安全战略和自由主义的经贸安全战略。John Ikenberry,“America’s Imperial Ambition”, Foreign Affairs（September/October2002）.
①Huang Jing,“The USA’s Asia-Pacific Strategy and the PolicyToward China Elution”, New Thinking, No.7,2007,p.47.
③Ashley J. Tellis,Andrew Marble and Travis Tanner (eds.), Asia’s Rising Powers and America’s Continued Purpose,10thAnniversary Edition (Seattle, WA, and Washington, D.C.:The National Bureau ofAsian Research,2010), p.61.
④James Przystup,“Asia-Pacific Region: National Interests and Strategic Imperatives”, Strategic Forum (Institute forNational Strategic Studies, National Defense University), No.239,April2009, pp.1-2.
⑤Peter Brookes,“Meeting the21stCentury Security Challenges inAsia”.(http://www.heritage.org.research/asiaandpacific/h193.cfm.)
③U.S. Department of Defense, Quadrennial Defense Review, September30,2001, p.4.
①Zalmay Khalilzad (et.al), The United States and Asia: Toward a New U.S. Strategies and Force Posture (SantaMonica: RAND Cooperation,2001).
②陈东晓，“布什政府亚太政策的调整”，《现代国际关系》，2005年第9期，第15页。
③Carlyle Thayer,“SoutheastAsia: Patterns of Security Cooperation”, ASPI Strategy，September2010（Australian:Strategic Policy Institute, p.36.
④Ralph A. Cossa,“Security Implications of Conflict in the South China Sea: Exploring Potential Triggers ofConflict”,APacific Forum CSIS Special Report, p.14.
⑤Oran Young，“Political Leadership and Regime Formation: on the Development of Institutions in InternationalSociety”，International Organizations, Vol.45, No.3(Summer1991), pp.281-308.
①Speech by Secretary Powell to U.S.Asia Pacific Council Symposium, April24,2003.(http://www.usembassy.it/file2003_04/alia/A3042409.htm.)
②Dennis C. Blair, and John T. Hanley Jr.,“From Wheels to Webs: ReconstructingAsia-Pacific SecurityArrangements”, The Washington Quarterly, Vol.24, No.1(Winter2001), p.11.
③Ralph A. Cossa,“The Major Powers in NortheastAsian Security”, McNair Paper51(Washington, DC: InstituteFor National Strategic Studies, National Defense University, August1996), p.54.
④Phillip P. Pan,“Rumsfeld Chides China for ‘Mixed Signals’”, Washington Post, October20,2005, pp. A16&A18.
⑤John D. Negroponte speech,“U.S. Policy in Asia: Meeting Opportunities and Challenges”, The BrookingsInstitution, July28,2008.
①James A. Kelly,“George W. Bush and Asia: An Assessment”, in Robert M. Hathaway and Wilson Lee (eds.),George W. Bush and East Asia: A First Term Assessment (Washington, DC: Woodrow Wilson International Centerfor Scholars,2005), pp.15-30.
②U.S. Department of Defense, Quadrennial Defense Review, February6,2006.
③Office of the Secretary of Defense,“Annual Report to Congress: Military Power of the People s Republic of China2006”.（http://www.defeselink.mil/pdfs/china_military_Report_06.pdf.）
④Office of the Secretary of Defense,“Annual Report to Congress: Military Power of the People s Republic of China2008”.（http://www.defeselink.mil/pdfs/china_military_Report_08.pdf.）
⑤Hillary Rodham Clinton,“U.S. and Asia: Two Transatlantic and Transpacific Powers”, Remarks at the AsiaSociety, New York, February13,2009.
⑥Kurt M. Campbell,“Principles of U.S. Engagement in the Asia-Pacific”, speech before the Subcommittee on EastAsian and PacificAffairs of Senate Foreign Relations Committee, January21,2010.
⑦Hillary R. Clinton,“Regional Architecture inAsia: Principles and Priorities”, Speech in Center-Jefferson Hall,Honolulu, Hawaii, January12,2010.(http://www.state.gov/secretary/rm/2010/01/135090.htm.)
①Hillary Rodham Clinton,“America's Pacific Century”, Foreign Policy, October11,2011.(http://www.state.gov/secretary/rm/2011/10/175215.htm.)
②Hillary Rodham Clinton,“America’s Engagement in the Asia-Pacific”, U.S. Department of State, October28,2010.(http://www.state.gov/secretary/rm/2010/10/150141.htm.)
③Barack Obama,“US-China Policy Under an ObamaAdministration”, China Brief (The American Chamber ofCommerce in China), Vol.16, No.8, October2008, p.13.
(http://www.amcham-china.org.cn/amcham/upload/wysiwyg/CB2008October/3-US-China_Policy_Under_a_Obama_Administration.pdf.)
①“日本自卫队与美澳韩进行战略协商”，日本《产经新闻》，2010年11月8日。
②Hillary Rodham Clinton,“America's Pacific Century”, Foreign Policy, October11,2011.
③Landler Mark,“Asia Trip Propels Clinton Back into Limelight”, New York Times, July24,2009.(http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/25/world/asia/25diplo.htm.)
④Hillary Rodham Clinton,“Developing a Comprehensive Partnership With Indonesia”, Remarks with IndonesianForeign Minister Noer Hassan Wirajuda, Jakarta, Indonesia, February18,2009.(http://www.state.gov/secretary/rm/2009a/02/119424.htm.)
⑤“ANewAsia-Pacific Strategy Report”, PacNet (The Pacific Forum, CSIS), No.20, March10,2009.(http://www.pacforum.org.)
①U.S. Department of Defense, Quadrennial Defense Review Report, February1,2010.
②Office of the Secretary of Defense,“Annual Report to Congress: Military and Security Developments Involvingthe People’s Republic of China”,August16,2010.(http://www.defeselink.mil/pdfs/china_military_Report_10.pdf.)
③Office of the Secretary of Defense,“Annual Report to Congress: Military and Security Developments Involvingthe People’s Republic of China”,August24,2011.(http://www.defeselink.mil/pdfs/china_military_Report_11.pdf.)
④Taylor Fravel,“China’s Search for Military Power”, The Washington Quarterly, Summer2008, p.136.
⑤Fareed Zakaria,“Hedged Bets on China”, Washington Post, November15,2010.
①Ralph Cossa, Brad Glosserman, Michael McDevitt, Nirav Patel, James Przystup, Brad Roberts,“The United Statesand the Asia-Pacific Region: Security Strategy for ObamaAdministration”, Ajoint report written by PacificForum-CSIS, Institute for DefenseAnalysis, Center for NavalAnalysis, Institute for National Strategic Studies,National Defense University and Center for NewAmerican Security, February2009.(http://www.csis.org/files/media/csis/pubs/issuesinsights_v09n01.pdf.)
②朱锋，“奥巴马政府对外战略调整：评估与展望”，《和平与发展》，2010年第1期，第3页。③TheAsia Foundation,“Americas’Role inAsia:Asian and American Views”,2008, p.128.
(http://asiafoundation. org/resources/pdfs/AmericasRoleinAsia2008.pdf.)
④Evan A. Feigenbaum and RobertA. Manning,“The United States in the NewAsia”, Council Special Report(Council on Foreign Relations), No.50, November2009.(http://www.cfr.org/publication/20446/united_states_in_the_new_asia.html.)
①日本外务省编，《外交青书》(第35号)，大藏省印刷局，1991年版，第429页。
②Stuart Harris,“US-Japan: Relations in the NewAsia-Pacific Order”, Paper to Conference on “The NewAsia-Pacific Order”, Institute of SoutheastAsia Studies, Singapore, May1995, p.14; Michael Mandelbaum.,“Davids’Friend Goliath”, Foreign Policy, January/February2006, p.56.
④Ralph Cossa and Brad Glosserman,“U.S.-Japan Defense Cooperation: Has Japan Become the Great Britain ofAsia?”Issues and Insights, No.3(March2005), p.15.
⑤Hillary Rodham Clinton,“Security and opportunities for the21stCentury”, Foreign Affairs, Vol.86, No.6(November/December2007), pp.6-13.
⑥Hillary Rodham Clinton,“Japan:ACornerstone of U. S. Foreign Policy”, Remarks with Japanese Foreign MinisterHirofumi Nakasone, Tokyo, February17,2009.（http://www.state.gov/secretary/rm/2009a/02/117465.htm.）
①Yukio Hatoyama,“ANew Path for Japan”, New York Times, August27,2009.(http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/27/opinion/27iht-edhatoyama.html.)
②Tobias Harris, Douglas Turner,“PartyTime in Tokyo--What a New Government Will Mean for Japan’s Future?”Foreign Affairs, September8,2009.
(http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/65415/tobias-harris-and-douglas-turner/party-time-in-tokyo.)
③Leif-Eric Easley, Tetsuo Kotan,“Electing a New Japanese Security Policy---Examining Foreign PolicyVisionswith in the Democratic Party of Japan”, Asia Policy, No.9(July2010), p.19.
⑤Mike M. Mochizuki and Michael O’Hanlon,“ALiberal Vision for the USA-Japan Alliance”, Survival, Vol.40, No.2(Summer1998), p.12.
⑥“The United States and Japan:Advancing Toward a Mature Partnership”, INSS Special Report (Washington, DC:National Defense University Press, October2000).(http://www.ndu.edu/inss/strforum/SR_01/SR_Iapan.htm.)
①Richard L.Armitage and Joseph S. Nye,“The U.S-JapanAlliance: GettingAsia Right Through2020”, CSIS(Washington, D.C.), February2007.(http://csis.org/files/media/csis/pubs/070216_asia2020.pdf.)
②Christopher B. Whitney and David Shambaugh,“Soft Power inAsia: Results of a2008Multinational Survey ofPublic Opinion (The Chicago Council on GlobalAffairs,2009), p.24; The Chicago Council on GlobalAffairs,“Anxious Americans Seek a New Direction in U.S. Foreign Policy Results of a2008Survey of Public Opinion”(TheChicago Council on Global Affairs,2009), pp.28-29.
⑤John J. Tkacik Jr,“TKACIK: China tests U.S.-Japan alliance”, Washington Times, October5,2010.
①Masaru Tamamoto,“The Emperor's New Cloths: Can Japan Live Without the Bomb?” World Policy Journal, Vol.26, No.3, Fall2009, p.6.
②2011年8月30野田佳彦当选日本新首相后，在9月6日CSIS举行的日美关系研讨会上，一位美国专家形容日本民主党的政策“就像一幅毕加索的油画，这里一个鼻子，那里一个耳朵，就实施有效管理而言，被分割开来了。见：Nelson Report, September6,2011.
④这里借用美利坚大学华人学者赵全胜描述中美关系的一个说法（见2006年第11期《中国评论》）。作者认为中日经济依赖深刻而安全领域互信不足的状态完全可以照此形容。
⑤David Lampton,“What Growing Chinese Power Means for America”, Testimony before Senate Committee onForeign Relations, June7,2005.
①Office of the President, The National Security Strategy of the United States of America, September2002.
①U.S. Department of Defense,“Indo-US Military Relationship: Expectations and Perceptions”, October1,2002.(http://dodreports.com/ada500476.)
②U.S. Department of Defense, Quadrennial Defense Review Report, February6,2006.
③Hillary Rodham Clinton,“America's Pacific Century”, Foreign Policy, October11,2011.
④Richard Boucher,“New Directions in US-India Relations”, U.S. Department of State Press Statement, June19,2001.(http://www.state.gov/p/sa/ci/in/3818pf.htm.)
⑤CalumMacLeod,“Obama packs much into9days in Asia”, US Today, November2,2010.(http://www.usatoday.com.)
⑥Government of India,“Reforming the National Security System: Recommendations of the Group of Ministers”.(New Delhi:2001).
⑦Gulshan Sachdeva,“India’s Strategic Thinking and its National Security Policy”, Asian Survey, Vol.41, No.3,2006,p.25.
⑧Vijay Obero (ed.), Army2020: Shape, Size, Structure and General Doctrine for Emerging Challenges (New Delhi:Knowledge World,2005), p.29.
①“China, Russia Differ on India’s Role in ‘Multi-polar’World”, Times of India,April28,1997.
②Chritopher J. Pehrson, String of Pearls: Meeting the Challenge of China’s Rising Power Across the Asian Littoral(Carlisle:ArmyWar College,2006), pp.3-4.
③Inaugural Address by Mr. Yashwant Sinha, India’s External Affairs Minister, at the Fifth Asian Security Conference,organized by the Institute for Defence Studies and Analysis, New Delhi, February4,2003.
④Yashwant Sinha,“India and the United States: Meeting the Challenge of the21st Century Together”, Remarks byIndian Minister for External Affairs, Brookings Institution, Washington, D.C., September10,2002.
⑤Richard N. Haass,“Indo-US TieAll about Cooperation, not Carping”, The Indian Express, January8,2003.
⑥Frankel and Harding (ed.), The India-China Relationship: Rivalry and Engagement (New Delhi: Oxford UniversityPress India,2004), p.337.
①张贵洪，“美印战略伙伴关系与中国：影响和对策”,《当代亚太》，2005年第5期，第32页。
②Stephen P. Cohen, India: Emerging Power (New Delhi: Oxford University Press India,2002), p.Ⅹ.
③AmitavAcharya,“There’s Room at the Top for Both India and China”, The Straits Times,April4,2005.
①但是随着美俄关系再度转冷，两国在伊朗问题上的斗争也愈加白热化。
②布热津斯基：《美国与俄罗斯》，《战略与管理》，2001年第1期，第45页．
③Timothy J. Colton and Michael McFaul,“America’s Real RussianAllies”, Foreign Affairs, Vol.80, Issue6(November/December2001), p.46.
④Office of the Secretary of Defense, Ballistic Missile Defense Review, February1,2010.(http://www.defense.gov/bmdr/docs/BMDR_101_MASTER_2_Feb.pdf.)
⑤杨雷，孔春雨，“美俄关系‘重启’前景分析”，《现代国际关系》，2010年第11期，第50页。
①维多利亚·潘菲洛娃，“输气管道把土库曼斯坦与中国相连链——北京将成为莫斯科在中亚的主要竞争对手”，(俄)《独立报》，2009年12月10日。
②伊利亚·克拉姆尼克，“中国的第五代战机”，俄新社，2010年12月31日莫斯科电。
③约瑟夫·奈：《美国霸权的困惑》，郑志国译，北京：世界知识出版社，2002年版，第27页。
④袁鹏，“美俄关系的变与不变——兼议美俄‘新冷战’说”，《外交评论》，2006年第5期，第31页。
⑤俄外交部：《俄罗斯联邦对外政策概论》。(http://www.russia.org.cn/extra/obzor.doc.)
②David J. Kramer,“Resetting U.S.-Russian Relations: It Takes Two”, The Washington Quarterly, Vol.33, Issue1,January2010, pp.61-79; Robert Legvold,“The Russia File: How to Move Toward a Strategic Partnership”, ForeignAffairs (July/August2009), pp.78-93.
③“Putin orders long-range bomber flights”, New York Times,August17,2007; Tony Halpin,“Russian navy arrives inVenezuela to21-gun salute”, Time, November26,2008.
④Peter Spiegel,“Biden Says Weakened Russia Will Bend to U.S.”, The Wall Street Journal, July25,2009, p. A1.
⑤Janusz Bugajski,“Cold Peace: Russia’s New Imperialism”(Praeger Pub Text, November2004), p.15
⑥“Security and Stability in CentralAsia: Differing Interests and Perspectives”, Summary of a Roundtable Held inNew York City with Policy Recommendations by the NCAFP, January9-10,2006.(http://www.ncafp.org/projects/RussiaCentralAsia/jan06_round.htm.)
①Lowell Dittmer,“The Strategic Triangle:ACritical Review”, in Ilpyong J. Kim (ed.), The Strategic Triangle:China，United States and the Soviet Union (NewYork: Paragon House Publisher,1987), p.34.
①兹比格纽·布热津斯基：《大棋局：美国的首要地位及其地缘战略》，中国国际问题研究所译，上海：上海人民出版社，1998年版，第55，63页。
④Assistant Secretary of State James A. Kelly’s Testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, March2,2004, The Washington File, March4,2004.
⑤International Crisis Group Report,“North Korea:Where Next for the Nuclear Talk?” Asia Report, No.87,November15,2004, Seoul/Brussels, p.14; Christopher Marquis,“Absent from the Korea Talks: Bush’s Hard-Liner”,New York Times, September2,2003.
①“朝鲜民主主义人民共和国外务省声明”，[朝]《劳动新闻》2009年4月15日，第4版。
③John D. Negroponte,“Annual Threat Assessment of the Director of National Intelligence for the Senate ArmedServices Committee”, February28,2006.(http://www.dni.gov/testimonies/20060228_testimony.htm.)
④朝鲜认为萨达姆政权的覆灭不是因为它有大规模杀伤性武器，而是因为它没有大规模杀伤性武器。见GlynFord,“North Korea on the Brink: Struggle for Survival”(London Ann Arbor, MI: Pluto Press,2008), pp.153-154.
⑤“Achieving Peace and Security in Korea and North EastAsia:ANew US Diplomatic StrategyToward NorthKorea”, TheAtlantic Council of the United States, Fbruary5,2009.(http://www.acus.org/publication/achieving-peace-and-security-korea-and-northeast-asia-new-us-diplomatic-strategy-toward.)
①虞少华，“危机下的朝核问题走向”，《国际问题研究》，2009年第5期，第34页。
②Clyde Prestowitz,“The Purpose ofAmerican Power in Asia”, Global Asia, Vol.2, No.2(Fall2007), p.13.
③“US President Barack Obama Urges North Korea to Give up Developing NuclearArms”, BBC News, August5,2009.(http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8186756.stm.)
①笔者与美海军战争学院副教授安德鲁·艾利克逊（Andrew S. Erickson）2010年10月8日在上海的访谈。
②Helene Cooper and Martin Fackler,“Obama’s PACIFIC Trip Encounters Rough Waters”, New York Times,November19,2009.
③U.S. Department of Defense, The United States Security Strategy for the East Asia-Pacific Region, November1998.
④Scott Snyder,“Pursuing a Comprehensive Vision for the US-South KoreaAlliance”, CSIS, Washington, DC, April2009.
⑤U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice’s Speech at Heritage Foundation, June19,2008.(http://blog.heritage.org/tag/condoleezza-rice/.)
⑥Bruce Klingner,“Transforming the US-South KoreanAlliance”, Backgrounder (The Heritage Foundation), No.2155, June30,2008; Kurt M. Campbell (et al.),“Going Global:The Future of the U.S.-South KoreaAlliance”,CNAS, Washington, DC, February2009.(http://www.cnas.org/files/documents/publications/CampbellPatel_Going%20Global_February09.pdf.)
⑦David Kang and Ji-Young Lee,“Japan-Korea Relations:The New Cold War inAsia?” Comparative Connections
(CSIS), Vol.12, No.4, January14,2011.(http://csis.org/files/publication/1004qjapan_korea.pdf.)
①Edward Cody,“Improved Atmosphere is Seen as N. Korea Arms Talks Resume”, Washington Post, July27,2005,p. A16.
②International Crisis Group,“North Korea under Tightening Sanctions”, Asia Briefing, No.101, Seoul/Brussels,March15,2010.
③Blaine Harden,“ResistanceAgainst North Korean Regime Taking Root: Survey Suggests”, Washington Post,March24,2010.(http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/03/23/AR2010032304035.html?wpisrc=nl_headline.）
①郑佑相、安勇炫：《北韩脱轨?金正日独裁体制或动摇》，（韩）《朝鲜日报》，2010年12月11日。
②Scott A. Snyder (et al.),“U.S. Policy Toward the Korean Peninsula”, Council on Foreign Relations Task ForceReport, June2010.(http://www.cfr.org/north-korea/us-policy-toward-korean-peninsula/p22205.)
③Aidan Foster-Carter,“‘We have nukes’: The Six-Party Failure”, Asia Times, February11,2005.(http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Korea/GB11Dg05.html.)
④Victor D. Cha,“Strategic Logic on the Korean Peninsula Headed Toward War”, The Chosunilbo, December7,2010.(http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2010/12/06/2010120600991.html.)
⑤Selig S. Harrison,“Living with a Nuclear N. Korea:Will North Korea Ever Give up its Nuclear Weapons?” PolicyForum Online09-015A, February24,2009.(http://nautilus.org/publications/essays/napsnet/forum/2009-2010/09015Harrison.html.);Leon V. Sigal,“What Obama Should Offer North Korea”, January28,2009.(http://www.thebulletin.org/web-edition/op-eds/what-obama-should-offer-north-korea.)
①Anthony Faiola,“US, Japan Worry about N. Korean Withdraw From Talks”, Washington Post, February20,2005,p. A30.
②Scott Synder,“China-Korea Relations: Year of China-DPRK Friendship, North’s Rocket Fizzles”, ComparativeConnections (Pacific Forum of CSIS), April2009.
③2010年5月3日笔者与美国海军战争学院Jonathan Pollack教授的谈话记录。
④汪伟民、李辛，“美韩同盟再定义与韩国的战略选择：进程与争论”，《当代亚太》，2011年第2期，第125页。
①扎勒米·哈利勒扎德等：《美国与亚洲——美国新战略和兵力态势》，北京：新华出版社，2001年版，第42页。
②Victor D. Cha, Alignment Despite Antagonism: The United States-Korean-Japan Security Triangle (Stanford:Stanford University Press),1999, p.36.
③Victor Cha and Ilkwon Kim,“China’s Rise, the Changing NortheastAsian Security Environment, and theU.S.-ROK Strategic Response”, An Interview with Victor Cha, December22,2010.
(http://csis.org/publication/chinas-rise-changing-northeast-asian-security-environment-and-us-rok-strategic-response.)
④Dennis C. Blair and John T. Hanley Jr.,“From Wheels to Webs: ReconstructingAsia-Pacific SecurityArrangements”, The Washington Quarterly, Vol.24, No.1(Winter2001), p.9.
⑤Ralph A. Cossa,“Pyongyang Raises the Stakes”, PacNet6(Pacific Forum of CSIS), February10,2005.(http://csis.org/publication/pacnet-06-february-10-2005-pyongyang-raises-stakes.)
⑥Charles Pritchard,“Failed Diplomacy:The Tragic Story of How North Korea Got the Bomb”, BrookingsInstitution Press, July17,2007.(http://www.brookings.edu/press/Books/2007/faileddiplomacy.aspx.)
①金大中：《建设和平与民主》，北京：世界知识出版社，1991年版，第183页。
②Adam Liff,“U.S. Policy toward North Korea:The China Fallacy”, PacNet67(Pacific Forum of CSIS), October8,2009.(http://csis.org/files/publication/pac0967.pdf.)
①John Duffield,“Why is There NoAPTO? Why is There No OSCAP?Asia-Pacific Security Institutions inComparative Perspective”, Contemporary Security Policy, Vol.22, No.2(August2001), pp.85-86.
②Van Evera,“Primed for Peace: Europe After the Cold War”, International Security, Vol.15, No.3(Winter1990/1991), pp.57-72; Aaron L. Friedberg,“Ripe for Rivalry: Prospects for Peace in a Multi-polar Asia”,International Security, Vol.18, No.3(Winter1993/94), pp.29-33; John Duffield,“Asia-Pacific Security Institutionsin Comparative Perspective”, in Ikenberry and Mastanduno (eds.), International Relations Theory and the AsiaPacific (New York: Columbia University Press,2003), pp.243-270.
③代表观点见：Richard Betts,“Wealth, Power, and Instability: East Asia and the United States after the Cold War”,International Security, Vol.18, No.3, pp.34-77; Gerald Segal,“East Asia and the Constrainment of China”,International Security, Vol.20, No.4, pp.107-135, etc.
④John Mearsheimer,“The Future of the American Pacifier”, Foreign Affairs, Vol.80, No.5(July/August2001), pp.46-61.
⑤Stephen W. Walt, The Origins of Alliance (Ithaca: Cornell University Press,1968).
⑥Randall L. Schweller,“Bandwagoning for Profit: Bringing the Revisionist State Back In”, American Journal ofPolitical Science, Vol.35, No.4,1991; Randall L. Schweller,“Unanswered Threats”, International Security, Vol.29,No.2,2004.
⑦Michael Mastanduno,“Incomplete Hegemony: The United States and Security Order in Asia”, in MuthiahAlagappa (ed.), Managing Security in Asia (Stanford University Press,2002), pp.151-157; Thomas Christensen,“China, the U.S.-Japan Alliance, and the Security Dilemma in East Asia”, International Security, Vol.23, No.4, pp.49-80.
①David C. Kang,“Getting Asia Wrong: The Need for New Analytical Frameworks”, International Security, Vol.27,No.4（Spring2003）, pp.57-85.
②Amitav Acharya,“Will Asia’s Past Be Its Future?” International Security, Vol.28, No.3, pp.149-164.
③Alan Dupont,“Living with the Dragon:WhyAustralia Needs a China Strategy”, Lowy Institute for InternationalPolicy, June2011, p.7.
④Media Alert: Lowy Institute poll results, Sydney, Lowy Institute for International Policy, April27,2011.
⑤Robert S. Ross,“The Geography of the Peace: East Asia in the Twenty-First Century”, International Security, Vol.23,No.4(Spring1999), pp.81-84.
⑥Thomas Christensen,“Posing Problems Without Catching Up: China’s Rise and the Challenges for U.S. SecurityPolicy”，International Security, Vol.25, No.4(Spring200l), pp.7-12.
⑦Alan Dupont,“Living with the Dragon:WhyAustralia Needs a China Strategy”, p.9.
⑧肯尼斯·沃尔兹有一句名言：“国际政治的一般理论必然着眼于大国关系。” Kenneth N. Waltz, Theory ofInternational Politics (Reading, Mass: Addison-Wesley,1979), p.73.
⑨Susan Shirk,“Asia-Pacific Regional Security: Balance of Power or Concert of Power?” In David Lake and PatrickMorgan (eds.), Regional Order: Building Security in a New World (University Park: Penn State University Press,1997), pp.245-270.
⑩Francis Fukuyama,“Re-Envisioning Asia”, Foreign Affairs, Vol.84, No.1(January/February2005), pp.75-87.
①Seng Tan and Ralph A. Cossa,“Rescuing Realism from the Realists: A Theoretical Note on East Asian Security”,in Sheldon W. Simon (ed.), The Many Faces of Asian Security (Lanham, Md.: Rowman&Littlefield Publishers, Inc.,August28,2001), p.33.
②陈寒溪，孙学峰：“东亚安全合作的现实与前景——观点的分歧及其分析”，《世界经济与政治》，2008年第3期。(http://www.irchina.org/news/view.asp?id=1609.)
③Evan Feigenbaum and Robert Manning,“The United States in the NewAsia”, p.4.
④Barack Obama,“RenewingAmerican Leadership”, Foreign Affairs, Vol.86, No.4(July/August2007), p.42.
①Hillary Clinton,“RegionalArchitecture inAsia: Principle and Priorities”, January12,2010.
②约翰·鲁杰：《对作为制度的多边主义的剖析》，苏长和等译，杭州：浙江人民出版社，2003年版。
③Amitav Acharya,“How Ideas Spread: Whose Norms Matter? Norm Localization and Institutional Change in AsianRegionalism”, International Organization, Vol.58, No.2(Spring2004), pp.239-241.
④Evan Feigenbaum and Robert Manning,“The United States in the New Asia”, p.5.
⑤National Security Strategy of the United States, May2010, p.43.
①Thomas Nides, Remarks at theAPCAC U.S.-Asia Business Summit, Tokyo, Japan, March1,2012.(http://www.state.gov/s/dmr/remarks/2012/185056.htm.)
②Antony Lake and George Shultz,“The Princeton Project on National Security: Forging a World of Liberty UnderLaw—US National Security on the21stCentury”, September27,2006.(http://www.princeton.edu/~ppns/papers/interagencyQNSR.pdf.)
③David Boaz (ed.),“Relations with China, India, and Russia”, in Cato Handbook for Policymakers,7thEdition(Washington, D.C.: Cato Institute,2009), Chap.53.(http://www.cato.org/pubs/handbook/hb111/hb111-53.pdf.)
④Kurt M. Campbell, Nirav Patel and Vikram J. Singh, The Power of Balance: America in Asia (Washington, D.C.:Center for a NewAmerican Security), June2008.(http://www.cnas.org/node/118.)
⑤Robert Jervis,“Security Regime”, in Stephen D. Krasner (ed.), International Regimes (Ithaca: Cornell UniversityPress,1983), pp.176-177.
①David Shambaugh (ed.), Power Shift: China andAsia’s New Dynamics (University of California Press,2006), pp.12-19.
②BenjaminA. Shobert,“USAnti-China Rhetoric at Danger Lever”, Asia Time Online, July8,2010,
③Elizabeth C. Economy,“The Game Change”, Foreign Affairs, Vol.89, No.6(November/December2010).
④“Strategic Reassurance”, The Economist, December2,2010, p.15.
⑤Evelyn Goh,“Southeast Asia on the China Challenge”, The Journal of Strategic Studies, Vol.30, No.4-5,2007, p.812.
⑥Surin Pitsuwan,“America s Role inAsia: Recommendations from Both Sides of the Pacific”, December16,2008.(http://www.asiafoundation.or.kr/document/ARA%20Seoul/NEA.pdf.)
⑦Fareed Zakaria,“The US Can Out-Charm China”, Newsweek, December12,2005.
①Michael Leifer, The ASEAN Regional Forum,Adelphia Paper of302(Oxford University Press,1996), London:International Institute for Strategic Studies, p.57.
②亨利·基辛格：《美国需要外交政策吗？》，胡利平译，北京：中国友谊出版公司，2003年版，第121-122页。
①Hillary Rodham Clinton,“America's Pacific Century”, Remarks at East-West Center (Honolulu, HI), November10,2011.
③Ralph Cossa, Brad Glosserman, Michael McDevitt, Nirav Patel, James Przystup, Brad Roberts,“The United Statesand the Asia-Pacific Region: Security Strategy for ObamaAdministration”, p.38.
④Douglas H. Paal,“Obama toAsia:The United States is back”, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace WebCommentary, November6,2009.(http://carnegieendowment.org/2009/11/06/obama-to-asia-united-states-is-back/60l.)
⑤Peter W. Rodman, The Emerging Pattern of Geopolitics (Carlisle: Army War College,2007), p.12.
①The Bipartisan Commission on America’s National Interests, America’s National Interests (Washington, D.C.), July1996.(http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/americas_interests.pdf.)
②赖怡忠，“欧巴马时代的美国-亚太关系展望”，《台湾国际研究季刊》（台北），第5卷，第1期，第63页。
①Evan S. Medeiros,“China’s International Behavior: Activism, Opportunism and Diversification”, Project Air Force,DAND,2009.(http://rand.org/pubs/monogtaphs/2009/RAND_MG850.pdf.)
②Fareed Zakaria,“WhyWashington Worries”, Newsweek, March14,2009.(http://www.fareedzakaria.com/articles/news-week/031409.html.)
③William J. Burns, Keynote Remarks at5th Biennial U.S.-China Relations Conference, TexasA&M University,October24,2011.(http://www.thechinatimes.com/online/2011/10/1747.html.)
④Hillary Rodham Clinton,“America's Pacific Century”, Remarks at East-West Center (Honolulu, HI), October11,2011.(http://www.state.gov/secretary/rm/2011/11/176999.htm.)
⑤Joseph R. Biden Jr.,“China’s Rise Isn’t Our Demise”, New York Times, September8,2011.(http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/08/opinion/chinas-rise-isnt-our-demise.html.)
⑥William J. Burns, Keynote Remarks at5th Biennial U.S.-China Relations Conference.
⑦Hillary Rodham Clinton,“America's Pacific Century”.
①William J. Burns, Keynote Remarks at5th Biennial U.S.-China Relations Conference.
②Hillary Rodham Clinton,“America's Pacific Century”.
③Joseph S. Nye, Jr., Understanding International Conflicts (NewYork: Longman,2000),3rdEditions, p.219.
④Remarks of Senator Barack Obama to the Chicago Council on GlobalAffairs April23,2007.(http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/fpccga/.)
⑤Remarks by the U.S. President Obama to the United Nations GeneralAssembly, NewYork, September23,2009.(http://www.whitehouse.gov/the_press_office/remarks-by-the-president-to-the-united-nations-general-assembly.)
⑥Anne-Marie Slaughter, Preface, in “ANational Strategic Narrative”, Special Report, The Woodrow WilsonInternational Center for Scholars,April2011, p.3.(http://www.wilsoncenter.org/events/docs/A%20National%20Strategic%20Narrative.pdf.)
⑦HenryA. Kissinger,“Rebalancing Relations with China”, Washington Post, August19,2009.
⑧HenryA. Kissinger,“Power Shifts and Security”, Keynote Address at the8th IISS Global Strategic ReviewConference:“Global Security Governance and the Emerging Distribution of Power”, Geneva, September10,2010.(http://www.iiss.org/conferences/global-strategic-review/global-strategic-review-2010/plenary-sessions-and-speeches-2010/keynote-address/henry-kissinger/); Anne-Marie Slaughter,“America’s Edge: Power in the Networked Century”,Foreign Affairs, January/February2009.(http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/63722/anne-marie-slaughter/americas-edge.)
①杨洁勉，“浅析奥巴马政府的全球战略调整”，《国际问题研究》，2011年第2期，第19页。
②“伙伴能力建设”最早出现在小布什时期的2006年“四年防务评估”报告中，但主要局限于军事领域，在单边主义和扩张主义思潮下也没有得到充分重视。奥巴马上台后，把“伙伴能力建设”作为美国外交战略的新方向，帮助重要盟友和地区伙伴建设军事和安全力量是美国领导战略的柱石。参见：Robert M. Gates,“Helping OthersDefend Themselves:The Future of U.S. SecurityAssistance”, Foreign Affairs (May/June2010), pp.2-6.
③Hillary Rodham Clinton’s Remarks on the National Security Strategy, The Brookings Institute (Washington, DC.),May27,2010.(http://www.state.gov/secretary/rm/2010/05/142312.htm.)
④美国学者扎卡里亚认为，中国的崛起走了一条不同于西方的务实的现代化道路，既没有挑战也没有拒绝现行国际秩序，而是在融入的同时按照自己的利益诉求重塑（reshape）这一体系。Fareed Zakaria, ThePost-American World,pp.36,88-89.
①约翰·伊肯伯里：《地区秩序变革的四大核心议题》，《国际政治研究》，2011年第1期，第8页。
②Antony Lake and George Shultz,“The Princeton Project on National Security: Forging a World of Liberty UnderLaw—U.S. National Security on the21stCentury”, The Woodrow Wilson School of Public and InternationalAffairs,Princeton University, September27,2006, pp.9-10;Abraham Denmark and Nirav Patel (eds.), China’s Arrival: AStrategic Framework for a Global Relationship, Center for a NewAmerican Security, September2009.
③“Post-midterms, Obama to Focus on Foreign Policy in Four-nation Asian Trip”, Washington Post, November4,2010.
④周琪，《意识形态与美国外交政策》，上海：上海人民出版社，2006年版，第18页。
⑤David McLean,“American Nationalism the China Myth, and the Truman Doctrine:The Question ofAccommodation with Peking <1949-1950>”, Diplomatic History, Vol.10, No.1, p.26.
⑥华裔学者相蓝欣在2007年8月出版的著作《传统与对外关系》（三联出版社）中持这样一个观点，即当今中美关系的最大症结不在于实力冲突，而在于美国人总觉得中国人没有按照他们的路子走。不少美国学者也认为2010年以来美中关系的波折与美国对中国产生了“幻灭感”(disillusionment)有关。
⑦Robert Sutter,“Assessing China’s Rise and US leadership in Asia: Growing Maturity and Balance”, Journal ofContemporary China, Vol.19, Issue65(June2010), pp.591-604.
⑧Michael Green,“Constructing a Successful China Strategy, Promote Balance and Democratic Ideals in Asia”.(http://www.brookings.edu/~media/Files/Projects/Opportunity08/Factsheet_China.pdf.)
②Carola McGiffert (ed.),“Chinese Soft Power and Its Implications for the United States: Competition andCooperation in Developing World”,AReport of the CSIS Smart Power Initiative, March2009, pp. V-VI.(http://www.csis.org/files/meida/csispubs/090305_mcgiffert_chinesesoftpower_eb/pdf.)
③Sheng Ding,“To Build ‘a Harmonious World’: China’s Soft Power Wielding in the Global South”, Journal ofChinese Political Science, Vol.13, No.2(Spring2008), p.198.
④Carlyle Thayer,“Southeast Asia: Patterns of Security Cooperation”, ASPI Strategy (Australian: Strategic PolicyInstitute), September2010, p.3.
⑤Joseph S. Nye, Jr.,“The Rise of China’s Soft Power”, The Wall Street Journal Asia, December29,2005; DavidShambaugh,“Beijing Charms its Neighbors”, International Herald Tribune, May14,2005; Edward Friedman,“China’s Rise, Asia’s Future”, Journal of East Asian Studies, Vol.6, Issue2(May-August2006); Bates Gill andYanzhong Huang,“Sources and Limits of Chinese Soft Power,”Survival, Vol.48, No.2(Summer2006); JoshuaKurlantzick, Charm Offensive: How China’s Soft Power in Transforming the World (Yale University Press,2007),etc.另外，美国国会研究处也有几份专题报告：“China’s Foreign Policy and ‘Soft Power’ in South America, Asiaand Africa, March2008; Mark E. Manyin (et al),“U.S. Accession to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations’Treaty of Amity and Cooperation (TAC)”, Congressional Research Service, July13,2009, etc.
⑦奥巴马政府提出要纠正亚太政策中亚洲部分与太平洋部分不平衡的做法，加强对后者的投入，为此开设“太平洋岛国论坛”，讨论美国与太平洋岛国伙伴在应对气候变化、流行疾病和环境退化等问题上的合作，并重新开设了美国国际开发署（USAID）办事处来落实合作和援助计划。参见：Hillary Rodham Clinton,“America'sPacific Century”, Remarks at East-West Center (Honolulu, HI), November10,2011.
①Daniel Ten Kate,“U.S. Strengthens SoutheastAsia Ties, Playing Catch-up to China”, July23,2009.(http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=aHDOIOLNMPM.)
②“Soft Power inAsia: China Still Lags the United States in Soft Power inAsia”, Results of a2008MultinationalSurvey of Public Opinion.(http://www.thechicagocouncil.org/UserFiles/File/POS_Topline%20Reports/Asia%20Soft%20Power%202008/Chicago%20Counci%l20Soft%20Power%20Report-%20Fina%l206-11-08.pdf.)
③David Shambaugh and Thomas Wright,“Asia Still LikesAmerica”, International Herald Tribune, February17,2009.
④Jacob J. Lew,“Positioning the State Department toAchieve the ObamaAdministration’s Foreign Policy Goal”, TheAmbassadors Review, Spring2009, pp.10-11.
⑤Michelle Levi,“Gates Calls TwitterAHuge StrategicAsset”, CBS News, June18,2009.(http://oaktree.cbsnews.com/blogs/2009/06/18/politics/politicalhotsheet/entry5096183.shtml.); Jason Liebman,“Facebook, Twitter and YouTube Are Tools For Diplomacy”, The Huffington Post, January8,2010
⑧Hillary Rodham Clinton,“Remarks on Internet Freedom”, The Newseum, Washington, D.C., January21,2010.(http://www.state.gov/secretary/rm/2010/01/135519.htm.)
①Craig S. Cohen, Introduction,“Capacity and Resolve: Foreign Assessments of U.S. Power”, CSIS, April2011, p.XI.
②这里借用约瑟夫·奈划分力量格局的“三维棋盘”概念：最上层也就是第一维度是军事实力，第二维是经济实力，第三维是比较分散的软实力和其它跨国关系和非政府力量。参见：Joseph S. Nye,“RecoveringAmericanLeadership”, Survival, Vol.50, Issue1(February/March2008), p.59.
③Irving Kristol,“The Map of the World Has Changed”, The Wall Street Journal, January3,1990; Irving Kristol,“InSearch of Our National Interest”, Wall Street Journal, June7,1990.
④Anne-Marie Slaughter, Preface, in “ANational Strategic Narrative”, The Woodrow Wilson International Center forScholars, April2011, p.3.(http://www.wilsoncenter.org/events/docs/A%20National%20Strategic%20Narrative.pdf.)
①A. F. K. Organski, World Politics (New York:Alfred A. Knopf,1968),2ndEdition, p.343; Charles F. Doran andWes Parsons,“War and the Cycle of Relative Power”, The American Political Science Review, No.4,1980, p.948.
②A. F. K. Organski, World Politics, p.123;A. F. K. Organsky and Jacek Kugler, The War Ledger (NewYork:AlfredA. Knopf,1980), pp.42-45.
③朱锋，“‘权力转移’理论：霸权性现实主义?”《国际政治研究》，2006年第3期，第38页。本段论述亦部分参考此文。
④Organsky and J Kugler, The War Ledger, pp.50-52.
⑤A. F. K. Organski, World Politics, pp.313-320; Organski and Kugler, The War Ledger, pp.19,23; Woosang Kimand James D. Morrow,“When Do Power Shifts Lead to War?” American Journal of Political Science, Vol.36, No.4
(November1992), pp.896-922; Douglas Lemke and Jacek Kugler,“The Evolution of the Power TransitionPerspective”, in Jecek Kugler and David Lemke (eds.), Parity and War: Evaluations and Extensions of “The WarLedger”(Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press,1996), p.21.
⑥Jack S. Levy,“Declining Power and the Preventive Motivation for War”, World Politics, Vol.40, No.1(October1987),pp.82-107.
⑦Glenn H. Snyder,“Process Variables in Neorealist Theory”, Security Studies, Vol.5, No.1(Spring1996), pp.167-192.
⑧Paul Diesing and Snyder Glenn, Conflict Among Nations: Bargaining, Decision Making, and System Structure inInternational Crisis (Princeton, NY: Princeton University Press,1977).转引自朱锋，“‘权力转移’理论：霸权性现实主义?”第40页。
①Alexander George,“From Conflict to Peace: Stages along the Road”, United States Institute of Peace Journal, Vol.5,No.6(December1992).
②Charles Kupchan (et al), Power in Transition: The Peaceful Change of International Order (New York:The UnitedNations University,2001), pp.8-9.
③Ronald L. Tammen (et al.), Power Transitions: Strategies for the21st Century (New York: Chatham HousePublishers,2000), p.31.
④James Mann,“Behold China”, The New Republic,April8,2010; Melinda Liu,“U.S. of Who?” Newsweek,February15,2010, p.25; Joseph Nye,“China Seems to Have Made Wrong Call on Its Relations with US,” May17,2010.(http://news. scotsman.com/comment/Joseph-Nye-China-seems-to.6157294.jp.)
⑤Yan Xuetong,“The Instability of China-US Relations”, The Chinese Journal of International Politics, Vol.3, No.3,2010, pp.263-292.
⑥袁鹏，“对中美关系未来发展的战略思考”，《现代国际关系》2010年庆典特刊，第67页。
①Stapleton Roy,“An Overview of Potential for U.S.-China Strategic Cooperation and How to Manage theDifferences”, in in Donald S. Zagoria (ed.), Sweet and Sour I: Candid Talks to Improve U.S.-China Relations, p.3.(http://ncafp.org/cms/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/SweetandSour.pdf.)
②有关区域层次的权力转移论述请见：Douglas Lemke and Suzanne Werner,“Power Parity, Commitment toChange, and War”; Douglas Lemke and Jacek Kugler,“The Evolution of the Power Transition Perspective”, in JacekKugler and Douglas Lemke (eds.), Parity and War: Evaluations and Extensions of “The War Ledger”, pp.3-12,25-33.
③Bonnie Glaser,“Shifting Balance: ChineseAssessments of U.S. Power”, in “Capacity and Resolve: ForeignAssessments of U.S. Power”, Special Report, CSIS, April2011, pp.3,14-16.
④Edward H. Carr, Twenty Years Crisis,1919-1939: An Introduction to the Study of International Relations (NewYork: Harperand Row,1964),2ndedition, pp.215-218.
⑤权力转移理论中，有一种“民主世系”（democratic lineage）观点认为民主国家之间的权力转移可以避免战争，比如19世纪末的英国之于美国，但中国不在其列，故其崛起的前景仍是不确定的。参见：William R. Thompson,Great Power Rivalries (Columbia, South Carolina: University of South Carolina Press,1999), pp.216-217; RobertKagan,“The Illusion of ‘Managing’ China”, Washington Post, May15,2005, p. B07.
①Joseph S. Nye, Jr., The Future of Power (NewYork: PublicAffairs,2011), pp.203-204.
②科学的研究理论一般需具备硬核（hard core）、保护带（protective belt）、正面启发（positive heuristic）和负面启发（negative heuristic）四个核心要素，硬核就是理论的内核，由理论的基本假定、核心概念以及对因果关系的解释构成，保护带（protective belt）则由一些辅助性的假设组成。参见：[英]伊姆雷·拉卡托斯：《科学研究纲领方法论》，兰征译，上海：上海译文出版社，2005年，第56-58页。
③Edward Carr,“The Dangers of a Rising China”, The Economist, December2010, p.A14.
④Robert Cox,“State, Social Force and World Order”, in Robert Keohane (ed.), Neorealism and Its Critics(Columbia: Columbia University Press,1986), pp.212-213.
①James E. Goodby and Kenneth Wesbrode,“Bush Should Seize His Chance to Recast U.S. Ties with China”,International Herald Tribune, September21,2001.
②G. John Ikenberry,“The Rise of China and the Future of the West: Can the Liberal System Survive?” ForeignAffairs, Volume87, No.1(January/February2008), pp.27-30.
③Robert Dahl,“The Concept of Power”, Behavioral Science, Vol.2, No.3(July1957), p.203.
④苏长和，“中国模式与世界秩序”，《中国外交》，2009年第12期，第18页。
⑤Fareed Zakaria,“The Future ofAmerican Power: How America Can Survive the Rise of the Rest”, Foreign Affairs,Vol.87, No.3,2008, p.43.
⑥US Vice-President Joe Biden Speaks on U.S.-China Relations, Sichuan University, August22,2011.(http://www.whitehouse.gov/photos-and-video/video/2011/08/22/vice-president-joe-biden-speaks-us-china-relations.)
⑦Michael Wesley,“Critical Thinking Needed to Bolster Ties with Asia”, The Australian,April30,2007.
①袁鹏，“中美关系向何处去？”《中国外交》，2010年第11期，第39页。
①U.S. Ambassador to China Gary Locke Address to Students and Faculty Beijing Foreign Studies University,September9,2011.(http://iipdigital.usembassy.gov/st/english/texttrans/2011/09/20110909104329su0.3182751.html.)
④Robert Kagan and Dan Blumenthal,“‘Strategic reassurance’ that isn’t”, Washington Post, November10,2009.(http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/11/09/AR2009110902793.html); Willy Lam,“Reassurance or Appeasement”, Far Eastern Economic Review, Vol.172, No.9(November2009), pp.12-15.
⑤Kelly Currie,“The Doctrine of “Strategic Reassurance’”, Wall Street Journal Asia, October22,2009.(http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704224004574488292885761628.html.)
⑥Ruth Marcus,“President Obama Is Making Nobody Happy”, Washington Post, April3,2010.
①James Steinberg,“The United States and China:Visions of Global Order”, Remarks to the8th IISS GlobalStrategic Review Conference “Global security governance and the emerging distribution of power”, Geneva,September11,2010.(http://www.iiss.org/conferences/global-strategic-review/global-strategic-review-2010/plenary-sessions-and-speeches-2010/first-plenary-session/james-b-steinberg/.)
②傅立民，“对中美关系变化的展望”，《美国研究》，2009年第1期，第8页。
③这一关系的特点是国家间交往渠道多样化、军事力量作用下降和缺乏主导性议题（经济、军事、政治因素没有一个能主导中美关系的全局）。在复合相互依赖中，共同利益和利益冲突同样突出，和谐不是相互依赖的产物，合作与冲突并存才是相互依赖的结果。参见：Robert O. Keohane and Joseph S. Ney, Power andInterdependence: World Politics in Transition (Little, Brown and Company,1977), pp.8-9;牛新春，“中美关系：依赖性与脆弱性”，《中国外交》，2009年第12期，第46-47页。
④Ian Bremmer,“Fight of the Century: Worse Than the Cold War?” Prospect, April2010, p.39; Jim Hoagland,“TheLukewarm War with China”, Washington Post, April16,2006, p. B07.
⑤Philip Bowring,“Who Needs Whom More?”, The International Herald Tribune, February5,2011.(http://yalegobal.yale.edu/content/who-needs-whom-more); Derek Scissors,“Misconceptions on China’s Role in Financing the US Deficit”,March24,2010.(http://www.heritage.org/Research/Commentary/2010/03/Misconception-on-Chinas-Role-in-Financing-the-US-
⑥Fu-Kuo Liu,“The Structural Change in the United States and China Relations: Security Implication for the AsiaPacific Region”, East Asian Review, Vol.14,2011, p.54.
①袁鹏，“战略互信与战略稳定”，《现代国际关系》，2008年第1期，第38页。
②“2010:The Year of Decision”, Remarks by Jon Huntsman，(Former) U.S.Ambassador to the People’s Republic ofChina，at Tsinghua University, Beijing, China, March18,2010.(http://beijing.usembassy-china.org.cn/031810amb.html.)
③叫停的原因三次直接与台湾问题有关（1996年第一次台海危机、2008年10月小布什对台军售和2010年1月奥巴马批准对台军售）。参见徐辉，“中美军事互信为何难以建立？”《外交评论》，2010年第2期，第23页。
⑤战略互信根据信任的强度可分为强信任（strong form trust）、次信任（semi-strong form trust）和弱信任（weakform trust）。“强信任”指信任主体间在政治、经济制度和意识形态、文化传统、宗教信仰、对外战略等方面拥有高度的同质性；“次信任”指信任主体间虽然在政治制度、意识形态等方面不同，但在对外战略上拥有较一致的观点，互不把对方视为威胁；“弱信任”指信任主体间不但在政治制度、意识形态、文化传统等方面迥异，而且存在战略猜疑，但是为了降低彼此冲突的风险，双方达成在部分问题领域开展合作的基本共识。参见：Jay B. Barney and Mark H. Hansen,“Trustworthiness as a Source of Competitive Advantage Strategic”, ManagementJournal,1994, pp.177-181；刘庆，“战略互信”概念辨析”，《国际论坛》2008年第1期，第42-43页。
⑥肯尼斯·沃尔兹：《国际政治理论》，信强译，2003年版，第105页。
①Robert Keohane, After Hegemony: Cooperation and Discord in the Political Economy, pp.85-101.
②Testimony of Harry Harding Presented to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, May15,2008.(http://foreign.senate/gov/testimony/2008/HardingTestimony080515p.pdf.)
③Evan S. Medeiros,“Is Beijing Ready for Global Leadership?” Current History, September,2009, p.256.
④Michael Mastanduno,“Still Liberal Leader? U.S. Power, Purpose, and the World Economy”, paper presented toMacAutherAsia Security Initiative Workshop2011, Beijing, June10-12, p.220.
⑤Kenneth Lieberthal,“The China-U.S. Relationship Goes Global”, Current History, September,2009, pp.243-244.
⑥袁鹏，“战略互信与战略稳定”，第33页。
⑦Zbignew Brezinsiki and John J. Mearsheimer,“Clash of the Titans”, Foreign Affairs, Vol.146(January/February
US Department of Defense, Quadrennial Defense Review,2001/2006/2010
The White House, The National Security Strategy of USA,2002/2006/2010
U.S. Department of Defense, Annual Defense Report of USA,2002/2010
U.S. Department of Defense, Nuclear Posture Review Report,2002/2010
U.S. Department of Defense, Annual Report to Congress: The Military Power of the P.R.C.,2006/2008/2009/2010/2011
U.S. Department of Defense, National Security Space Strategy, February2011
Office of the Secretary of Defense, Ballistic Missile Defense Review, February2010
Office of the Director of National Intelligence, The National Intelligence Strategy of USA,2001/2010
George W. Bush, State of the Union Address,2002/2008
Barack Obama, State of the Union Address,2011/2012
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