中国工业碳排放绩效及其影响因素研究
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摘要
随着气候变化问题愈演愈烈,气候异常现象频繁显现,国际减排呼声也日渐高涨。毋庸置疑,发达国家先前工业化过程中所累积的碳排放是造成温室气体浓度上升的主因,作为一个发展中国家,中国人均消费水平尚处于较低层次,因而不能以气候变化问题为借口迫使中国放弃发展经济与改善人民生活的权利。从“共同但有区别的责任’角度出发,发达国家必须在碳减排行动上率先垂范,为其历史累积排放承担责任,并通过资金与技术优势帮助发展中国家实现低碳经济发展,唯此方能保证碳减排问题上的平等性、公平性及效率性。然而,随着气候谈判的越发深入,发展中国家所面对的碳减排压力与日俱增,尤其是作为碳排放大国的中国更是成为众多发达国家在气候谈判中竞相施压的对象和拒绝做出减排承诺的“挡箭牌”,而且就自身发展困境而言,能源稀缺与环境恶化也成为阻碍中国工业经济进一步发展的瓶颈,因而现有发展方式是不可持续的,这就要求在中国政府在推动工业经济发展的过程中必须注重碳排放绩效提升工作,以此破解当前能源紧缺与环境恶化困局。
研究中国工业碳排放绩效问题,需要对以下三个问题做出解答：“中国工业经济增长与碳排放之间呈现何种关系以及隐藏在其背后原因如何”、“中国省级工业碳排放绩效处于何种状态”以及“中国工业碳排放绩效影响因素有哪些”。基于此,本文以上述三个问题的导向,利用改进的脱钩理论模型与碳排放库兹涅茨曲线理论分别对中国工业经济增长与碳排放之间的关系及其动因做出分析,在此基础上利用非参数数据包络分析方法构造了全要素框架下的三类碳排放绩效模型,对中国省级工业碳排放绩效进行测度与分析,在此基础上利用区域收敛理论与核密度估计对工业碳排放绩效进行收敛性分析,并利用面板数据估计方法对中国工业碳排放绩效的影响因素及其贡献度进行测算与分析,从而为中国工业领域碳减排实践提供启示。具体研究内容如下：
(一)本文将对数平均权重Divisia指数分解法与脱钩理论模型和库兹涅茨曲线理论相结合,对脱钩理论模型与碳排放库兹涅茨理论进行改进与拓展,进而分别对中国工业经济增长与碳排放之间的短期关系与长期关系及两种关系背后所隐藏的动因做出客观而又深入的分析。实证研究结论显示：就短期关系而言,工业经济增长与碳排放之间主要存在弱“脱钩”,而在长期关系方面,二者在形态变化上符合传统倒“U”型的库兹涅茨假说,且当前中国工业整体上处于这一碳排放库兹涅茨曲线拐点的左侧；指数分解结果显示,技术因素是隐藏在二者短期与长期关系背后的主要动因。
(二)本文利用非参数序列DEA方法与方向性环境距离函数构建了全要素碳排放综合绩效模型与全要素碳排放相对绩效模型,并结合碳排放影子价格,利用非参数序列数据包络分析方法构建了全要素碳排放经济绩效模型,以此三类全要素碳排放绩效模型为基础对中国省级工业碳排放绩效具体情形做出测度与分析。实证研究结果显示：中国工业全要素碳排放综合绩效静态水平与动态变化上呈现东部>中部>西部的阶梯型差异,技术进步是推动全要素碳排放综合绩效上升的主要动力,技术效率作用力度较小,作用方向也因地区与时间而异,北京、天津、上海及广东四省市是为推动技术进步的“标杆”；与全要素碳排放综合绩效测度结果相比,各地区经济绩效相对排名与碳排放综合绩效较为相似,但经济绩效静态值整体上有所下降,但在动态变化上则增幅更大；省级工业全要素碳排放相对绩效变化率相对较小,中国各省区在碳减排单一维度上的工作进展并不明显,其中技术进步推动作用较小,而技术效率更是在推动作用与抑制作用之间徘徊。
(三)以全要素框架下工业碳排放绩效的测度结果为基础,利用区域经济收敛理论和核密度估计方法对中国省级工业碳排放绩效动态变化趋势进行分析。实证研究结果表明：三类全要素碳排放绩效皆不存在绝对收敛,省级工业全要素碳排放经济绩效反而呈现出发散趋势：全要素碳排放综合绩效与全要素碳排放经济绩效皆不存在俱乐部收敛,全要素碳排放相对绩效则在东部与非东部之间存在俱乐部收敛特性；当纳入控制变量后,全要素碳排放综合绩效与全要素碳排放相对绩效具有条件收敛特性,而全要素碳排放经济绩效则不存在条件收敛特性；基于核密度估计的三类全要素碳排放绩效的累积指数的分布动态演进则进一步佐证了绝对收敛系数检验的主要结论。
(四)为了考察与分析中国省级工业碳排放绩效差异背后的影响因素,本文从企业规模、工业结构、能源结构、要素禀赋、技术、环境规制及外资等七个维度出发,运用面板数据估计方法对省级工业碳排放相对绩效的影响因素及其贡献度进行分析与测算。实证研究结果显示：在整体层面上,企业规模、技术水平及外资因素对工业碳排放绩效起到显著正向影响,而重工业比重、国有产权制度结构、资本深化及煤炭消费比重对工业碳排放绩效起到显著负面影响,环境规制对工业碳排放绩效的影响微乎其微,以上各因素的作用方向与相对重要程度因区域不同而存在一定的差异。
基于以上实证分析结论,本文提出以下建议：(1)大力推进企业技术引进、吸收及自主创新步伐,提高能源利用效率；(2)加快工业结构调整力度,推进工业产业结构升级,提升工业资本深化质量；(3)优化工业领域能源消费结构,有倾向性地将碳排放纳入环境规制范围；(4)提升外资引入“门槛”,加大对外资先进管理与工艺技术的引进与吸收,提高工业企业规模经济效应；(5)强化地区之间的经济技术交流,因地制宜地推进工业碳减排工作,缩小工业碳排放绩效地区差距。
With the increasing climate change problem and the frequent appearance of climate anomalies, the call for international carbon emission reduction keeps increasing growth. There is no doubt that the cumulative carbon emission of the developed countries in the previous industrialization process is the main reason for the increase of greenhouse gases density. As a developing country, china's per capita consumption is still at a low level, therefore the action that making the issue of climate change as an excuse to force China to abandon economic development and life improvement cannot be accepted. From the perspective of the viewpoint of" common but differentiated responsibilities",the developed countries should play an exemplary role in the carbon emission reduction, take responsibility for their historical cumulative emissions, and help the developing countries achieve low carbon economic development with financial and technical advantages, which undoubtedly ensure the equality, fairness and efficiency in carbon emission reduction. However, as the climate negotiations go more in-depth, the pressure of carbon emission reduction faced by developing countries keeps increasing, especially for China, which becomes the "shield" helping some developed countries refuse to make explicit carbon emission commitment. Besides, energy scarcity and environmental degradation have become a "bottleneck" impeding the further development of China's industrial economy, therefore the existing mode of development is unsustainable. For these reasons our government should focus on the improvement of carbon emission performance in the industrial economic development so as to crack the predicament of the current energy shortage and environmental degradation.
There are three questions needed to be answered in order to analyze China's industrial carbon emissions performance, which are as follows:"What's the relationship between China's industrial economic growth and carbon emissions, and the hidden reasons behind the relationship""How about China's provincial industrial carbon emission performance" and "What's the driving forces behind industrial carbon emission". Based on the above, the dissertation use improved decoupling theory model and carbon emissions Kuznets curve theory to analyze the relationship between China's industrial economic growth and carbon emissions and its causes. On the basis, the dissertation constructs three carbon emission performance models under the framework of total factor measurement, with which measures and analyzes China's provincial industrial carbon emission performance. Besides, The regional convergence theory and kernel density estimation are used to make convergence analysis on industrial carbon emission performance. Then the panel data estimation model which incorporates explanation variables can be used to measure each one's contribution to the diversity of the industrial carbon emissions so as to provide an insight into the practice of China's industrial carbon emission reduction. Specific research contents are as follows:
1.Chapter3&4combine the logarithmic mean weight index decomposition method with decoupling theory model and the Kuznets curve theory, construct the improved decoupling theory model and carbon Kuznets theory, which are used to analyse the short-term and long-term relationships between China's industrial economic growth and carbon emissions as well as the reasons hidden behind the relationship.The empirical results show that:in the short time, the industrial economic growth and carbon emissions mainly characterized with weak "decoupling" relationship. In the long time, the relationship meets the traditional inverted "U" Kuznets hypothesis, and the current China's industry as a whole is on the left side of the inflection point in carbon Kuznets curve. Moreover, the index decomposition results show that technical factor is the main motivation behind both short-term and long-term relationships.
2.The dissertation constructs carbon emissions comprehensive performance model and carbon emissions relative performance model under total-factor framework by using nonparametric sequence DEA theory and directional environment distance function, and also constructs carbon emissions economic performance under total-factor framework with carbon emissions shadow price and nonparametric sequence DEA theory. This dissertation analyzes and measures industrial carbon emissions of each China's province with the above models.The result of empirical study shows as follows:the total-factor carbon emissions comprehensive performance of China's industries displays enormous differences,which is just like east>middle>west in static or dynamic state. Technological advance is the main factor for promoting the total-factor carbon emissions comprehensive performance, technical efficient factor has less effect on the promoting, and the influncing direction of foctors differs from areas and time. Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai and Guangdong are the key patterns of technological advance.Compared with the results from all total-factor carbon emissions comprehensive performance, the relative ranking of each regional economic performance is similar to total-factor carbon emissions comprehensive performance. But the static values of economic performance slightly decline and the dynamic values have more increase; Compared with the above performance, it is relatively small that the rate of change about industrial carbon emissions relative performance from China's provinces, all the provinces have not gained obvious progress in carbon emission reduction, the reasons is that effect from technological advance is less and technical efficiency hovers between promoting effect and inhibitory effect.
3. The dissertation Analyzes the dynamic changing trend of industrial carbon emissions performance from China's provinces with regional economic convergence theory and Kernel density estimation method based on the results of performance measure.The result shows as follows:there are not absolute convergences in the three kinds of total-factor carbon emissions performance, but provincial industrial total-factor carbon emissions economic performance has a scattered trend.There are not club convergences in total-factor carbon emissions comprehensive performance and total-factor carbon emissions economic performance, total-factor carbon emissions relative performance has the club convergence between east and non-east.There are conditional convergence in total-factor carbon emissions comprehensive performance and total-factor carbon emissions relative performance, when putting into the controled variable; the dynamic evolution from distribution of the three kinds of total-factor carbon emissions performance cumulative index furtherly proves the main conclusion of convergence coefficient test.
4.In order to analyze the factors making great difference of industrial carbon emissions performance among all China'provinces, this paper analyzes and measures the contribution of factors that influence provincial industrial carbon emissions relative performance with estimation method of Panel data in the perspective of seven dimensions such as enterprise scale, industrial structure, energy structure, factor endowment, technology, environmental institution and foreign investment etc.The empirical study shows:In the overall level, the enterprise scale, technical level and factors of foreign investment have significant positive influence on industrial carbon emissions performance; but the proportion of heavy industry, the institutional structure of state-owned property, capital deepening and the proportion of coal consumption have significant negative influence on industrial carbon emissions performance; environmental regulation has little impact on industrial carbon emissions performance. There are some differences on the influencing directions and the relative importantance between the above factors due to different regions.The following suggestions based on the empirical analysis are as follows:1. To promote introduction and absorption of enterprise technology and independent innovation vigorously, to enhance the efficiency of energy utilization;2. To speed up industrial restructuring, and promote the upgrade of the industrial structure and the quality of industrial capital deepening;3. To optimize consumption structure of industry energy, pick carbon emissions into environmental regulation;4. To improve the basic permissive level of foreign investment, strengthen introduction and absorption of the foreign advanced management and technology, improve the scale-economy effect of industrial enterprises;5. To strengthen economic and technical communication between regions, promote industrial carbon emission reduction, reduce regional difference of industrial carbon emissions performance.
研究中国工业碳排放绩效问题,需要对以下三个问题做出解答：“中国工业经济增长与碳排放之间呈现何种关系以及隐藏在其背后原因如何”、“中国省级工业碳排放绩效处于何种状态”以及“中国工业碳排放绩效影响因素有哪些”。基于此,本文以上述三个问题的导向,利用改进的脱钩理论模型与碳排放库兹涅茨曲线理论分别对中国工业经济增长与碳排放之间的关系及其动因做出分析,在此基础上利用非参数数据包络分析方法构造了全要素框架下的三类碳排放绩效模型,对中国省级工业碳排放绩效进行测度与分析,在此基础上利用区域收敛理论与核密度估计对工业碳排放绩效进行收敛性分析,并利用面板数据估计方法对中国工业碳排放绩效的影响因素及其贡献度进行测算与分析,从而为中国工业领域碳减排实践提供启示。具体研究内容如下：
(一)本文将对数平均权重Divisia指数分解法与脱钩理论模型和库兹涅茨曲线理论相结合,对脱钩理论模型与碳排放库兹涅茨理论进行改进与拓展,进而分别对中国工业经济增长与碳排放之间的短期关系与长期关系及两种关系背后所隐藏的动因做出客观而又深入的分析。实证研究结论显示：就短期关系而言,工业经济增长与碳排放之间主要存在弱“脱钩”,而在长期关系方面,二者在形态变化上符合传统倒“U”型的库兹涅茨假说,且当前中国工业整体上处于这一碳排放库兹涅茨曲线拐点的左侧；指数分解结果显示,技术因素是隐藏在二者短期与长期关系背后的主要动因。
(二)本文利用非参数序列DEA方法与方向性环境距离函数构建了全要素碳排放综合绩效模型与全要素碳排放相对绩效模型,并结合碳排放影子价格,利用非参数序列数据包络分析方法构建了全要素碳排放经济绩效模型,以此三类全要素碳排放绩效模型为基础对中国省级工业碳排放绩效具体情形做出测度与分析。实证研究结果显示：中国工业全要素碳排放综合绩效静态水平与动态变化上呈现东部>中部>西部的阶梯型差异,技术进步是推动全要素碳排放综合绩效上升的主要动力,技术效率作用力度较小,作用方向也因地区与时间而异,北京、天津、上海及广东四省市是为推动技术进步的“标杆”；与全要素碳排放综合绩效测度结果相比,各地区经济绩效相对排名与碳排放综合绩效较为相似,但经济绩效静态值整体上有所下降,但在动态变化上则增幅更大；省级工业全要素碳排放相对绩效变化率相对较小,中国各省区在碳减排单一维度上的工作进展并不明显,其中技术进步推动作用较小,而技术效率更是在推动作用与抑制作用之间徘徊。
(三)以全要素框架下工业碳排放绩效的测度结果为基础,利用区域经济收敛理论和核密度估计方法对中国省级工业碳排放绩效动态变化趋势进行分析。实证研究结果表明：三类全要素碳排放绩效皆不存在绝对收敛,省级工业全要素碳排放经济绩效反而呈现出发散趋势：全要素碳排放综合绩效与全要素碳排放经济绩效皆不存在俱乐部收敛,全要素碳排放相对绩效则在东部与非东部之间存在俱乐部收敛特性；当纳入控制变量后,全要素碳排放综合绩效与全要素碳排放相对绩效具有条件收敛特性,而全要素碳排放经济绩效则不存在条件收敛特性；基于核密度估计的三类全要素碳排放绩效的累积指数的分布动态演进则进一步佐证了绝对收敛系数检验的主要结论。
(四)为了考察与分析中国省级工业碳排放绩效差异背后的影响因素,本文从企业规模、工业结构、能源结构、要素禀赋、技术、环境规制及外资等七个维度出发,运用面板数据估计方法对省级工业碳排放相对绩效的影响因素及其贡献度进行分析与测算。实证研究结果显示：在整体层面上,企业规模、技术水平及外资因素对工业碳排放绩效起到显著正向影响,而重工业比重、国有产权制度结构、资本深化及煤炭消费比重对工业碳排放绩效起到显著负面影响,环境规制对工业碳排放绩效的影响微乎其微,以上各因素的作用方向与相对重要程度因区域不同而存在一定的差异。
基于以上实证分析结论,本文提出以下建议：(1)大力推进企业技术引进、吸收及自主创新步伐,提高能源利用效率；(2)加快工业结构调整力度,推进工业产业结构升级,提升工业资本深化质量；(3)优化工业领域能源消费结构,有倾向性地将碳排放纳入环境规制范围；(4)提升外资引入“门槛”,加大对外资先进管理与工艺技术的引进与吸收,提高工业企业规模经济效应；(5)强化地区之间的经济技术交流,因地制宜地推进工业碳减排工作,缩小工业碳排放绩效地区差距。
With the increasing climate change problem and the frequent appearance of climate anomalies, the call for international carbon emission reduction keeps increasing growth. There is no doubt that the cumulative carbon emission of the developed countries in the previous industrialization process is the main reason for the increase of greenhouse gases density. As a developing country, china's per capita consumption is still at a low level, therefore the action that making the issue of climate change as an excuse to force China to abandon economic development and life improvement cannot be accepted. From the perspective of the viewpoint of" common but differentiated responsibilities",the developed countries should play an exemplary role in the carbon emission reduction, take responsibility for their historical cumulative emissions, and help the developing countries achieve low carbon economic development with financial and technical advantages, which undoubtedly ensure the equality, fairness and efficiency in carbon emission reduction. However, as the climate negotiations go more in-depth, the pressure of carbon emission reduction faced by developing countries keeps increasing, especially for China, which becomes the "shield" helping some developed countries refuse to make explicit carbon emission commitment. Besides, energy scarcity and environmental degradation have become a "bottleneck" impeding the further development of China's industrial economy, therefore the existing mode of development is unsustainable. For these reasons our government should focus on the improvement of carbon emission performance in the industrial economic development so as to crack the predicament of the current energy shortage and environmental degradation.
There are three questions needed to be answered in order to analyze China's industrial carbon emissions performance, which are as follows:"What's the relationship between China's industrial economic growth and carbon emissions, and the hidden reasons behind the relationship""How about China's provincial industrial carbon emission performance" and "What's the driving forces behind industrial carbon emission". Based on the above, the dissertation use improved decoupling theory model and carbon emissions Kuznets curve theory to analyze the relationship between China's industrial economic growth and carbon emissions and its causes. On the basis, the dissertation constructs three carbon emission performance models under the framework of total factor measurement, with which measures and analyzes China's provincial industrial carbon emission performance. Besides, The regional convergence theory and kernel density estimation are used to make convergence analysis on industrial carbon emission performance. Then the panel data estimation model which incorporates explanation variables can be used to measure each one's contribution to the diversity of the industrial carbon emissions so as to provide an insight into the practice of China's industrial carbon emission reduction. Specific research contents are as follows:
1.Chapter3&4combine the logarithmic mean weight index decomposition method with decoupling theory model and the Kuznets curve theory, construct the improved decoupling theory model and carbon Kuznets theory, which are used to analyse the short-term and long-term relationships between China's industrial economic growth and carbon emissions as well as the reasons hidden behind the relationship.The empirical results show that:in the short time, the industrial economic growth and carbon emissions mainly characterized with weak "decoupling" relationship. In the long time, the relationship meets the traditional inverted "U" Kuznets hypothesis, and the current China's industry as a whole is on the left side of the inflection point in carbon Kuznets curve. Moreover, the index decomposition results show that technical factor is the main motivation behind both short-term and long-term relationships.
2.The dissertation constructs carbon emissions comprehensive performance model and carbon emissions relative performance model under total-factor framework by using nonparametric sequence DEA theory and directional environment distance function, and also constructs carbon emissions economic performance under total-factor framework with carbon emissions shadow price and nonparametric sequence DEA theory. This dissertation analyzes and measures industrial carbon emissions of each China's province with the above models.The result of empirical study shows as follows:the total-factor carbon emissions comprehensive performance of China's industries displays enormous differences,which is just like east>middle>west in static or dynamic state. Technological advance is the main factor for promoting the total-factor carbon emissions comprehensive performance, technical efficient factor has less effect on the promoting, and the influncing direction of foctors differs from areas and time. Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai and Guangdong are the key patterns of technological advance.Compared with the results from all total-factor carbon emissions comprehensive performance, the relative ranking of each regional economic performance is similar to total-factor carbon emissions comprehensive performance. But the static values of economic performance slightly decline and the dynamic values have more increase; Compared with the above performance, it is relatively small that the rate of change about industrial carbon emissions relative performance from China's provinces, all the provinces have not gained obvious progress in carbon emission reduction, the reasons is that effect from technological advance is less and technical efficiency hovers between promoting effect and inhibitory effect.
3. The dissertation Analyzes the dynamic changing trend of industrial carbon emissions performance from China's provinces with regional economic convergence theory and Kernel density estimation method based on the results of performance measure.The result shows as follows:there are not absolute convergences in the three kinds of total-factor carbon emissions performance, but provincial industrial total-factor carbon emissions economic performance has a scattered trend.There are not club convergences in total-factor carbon emissions comprehensive performance and total-factor carbon emissions economic performance, total-factor carbon emissions relative performance has the club convergence between east and non-east.There are conditional convergence in total-factor carbon emissions comprehensive performance and total-factor carbon emissions relative performance, when putting into the controled variable; the dynamic evolution from distribution of the three kinds of total-factor carbon emissions performance cumulative index furtherly proves the main conclusion of convergence coefficient test.
4.In order to analyze the factors making great difference of industrial carbon emissions performance among all China'provinces, this paper analyzes and measures the contribution of factors that influence provincial industrial carbon emissions relative performance with estimation method of Panel data in the perspective of seven dimensions such as enterprise scale, industrial structure, energy structure, factor endowment, technology, environmental institution and foreign investment etc.The empirical study shows:In the overall level, the enterprise scale, technical level and factors of foreign investment have significant positive influence on industrial carbon emissions performance; but the proportion of heavy industry, the institutional structure of state-owned property, capital deepening and the proportion of coal consumption have significant negative influence on industrial carbon emissions performance; environmental regulation has little impact on industrial carbon emissions performance. There are some differences on the influencing directions and the relative importantance between the above factors due to different regions.The following suggestions based on the empirical analysis are as follows:1. To promote introduction and absorption of enterprise technology and independent innovation vigorously, to enhance the efficiency of energy utilization;2. To speed up industrial restructuring, and promote the upgrade of the industrial structure and the quality of industrial capital deepening;3. To optimize consumption structure of industry energy, pick carbon emissions into environmental regulation;4. To improve the basic permissive level of foreign investment, strengthen introduction and absorption of the foreign advanced management and technology, improve the scale-economy effect of industrial enterprises;5. To strengthen economic and technical communication between regions, promote industrial carbon emission reduction, reduce regional difference of industrial carbon emissions performance.
引文
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