ICT对国民经济的贡献研究
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摘要
近几年来,随着信息技术与通信技术的融合,产生了信息通信技术这一新的概念,即为ICT。由于其在推动全球经济增长、消除“数字鸿沟”方面的巨大作用,因此世界各国都将其列为优先发展的产业,抢占新一轮的经济增长制高点；尤其是在我国,由于迫切需要转变经济增长方式,推动新一轮的经济增长,ICT产业的地位就显得更为突出,国家将其列为基础性、先导性、支柱性产业重点来发展。因此,如何科学、准确的量化我国ICT产业的运营效率、对国民经济的贡献以及对其贡献的作用机理和可持续性进行研究,并提出发展策略显得必要且迫切。这正是本文要研究的问题。
本文共分为七章。
第一章：导论。首先对ICT的作用、影响以及在经济发展中的地位进行了概述,根据国家统计局的规定对ICT进行了界定。通过对国内外相关研究的评述,引出本文的研究定位、研究的框架和研究创新点。
第二章：ICT对国民经济贡献研究的理论基础。本文的主要研究方法有数据包络分析法(DEA)、计量经济学、投入产出法和系统动力学的方法。本章的主要内容在于对前面提到的几种方法的理论基础分别进行了较为详细的阐述。
第三章：基于计量角度的ICT产业对国民经济贡献率的测算。本章基于计量经济学的柯布道格拉斯函数就规模报酬不变和非规模报酬不变的两种情况下对ICT产业的资本以及劳动的弹性系数以及综合技术水平进行了测算；并用索罗余值法对全国、地区以及各省ICT产业的技术、资本、劳动对产出增加值的贡献率进行了测算以及评价。
第四章：基于DEA方法的我国ICT产业效率分析。本章运用DEA方法,对2003年-2008年(近期)我国ICT产业的经济效率进行了测算、分析和评价；对1995年-2008年(长期)我国ICT产业经济效率进行了测算、分析和评价；对我国省际ICT产业2003-2008年间全要素生产率的变化、技术效率的变化、技术的变化等值进行了测算、分析及评价。
第五章：基于投入产出的ICT对国民经济贡献测量。本章利用投入产出方法对ICT产业对各部门的直接消耗、完全消耗、完全需求、直接分配、完全分配、完全供给及ICT产业对国民经济的带动和推动影响、ICT带动作用对总投入构成的影响、电信业推动作用对总产出构成的影响进行了定量计算和分析。
第六章：基于系统动力学对ICT贡献的可持续研究。首先确立本章的建模思路和模型流图结构,并对模型的因果关系进行说明,从而引出模型的仿真与控制分析。系统模拟仿真从2003年度至2020年度,分析了这期间的5个子系统的仿真结果,并比对了外生变量的变化对5个子系统的影响效果。
第七章：总结。总结全文主要研究成果并提出策略建议。同时指出研究未尽之处。
In recent years, with the integration of information technology and communication technology, a new concept——information and communication technology appeared, that is, ICT. Because of its great role in the growth of the global economy and the elimination of the "digital divide", ICT industry has been the preferential developmental industry of each country to seize the commanding point of the new round of economic growth. Especially, in China, because of the urgent needs to transform the economic growth mode to promote a new round of economic growth, the prominent role of ICT industry is becoming more and more obvious, and it has been ranked as basic, leading and pillar industry to develop. Therefore, it is necessary and urgent to quantize the operational efficiency of ICT industry and its contribution to the national economy, to research its contribution mechanism and sustainability, and to put forward the development strategy. This is the very theme of the paper.
This paper is divided into seven chapters.
Chapter 1:Introduction. Firstly, the paper summarizes the influence of ICT and its role in the economic development. And then, ICT is defined according to the rule of the State Statistical Bureau. Finally, the research orientation, framework and innovation of this paper are raised through comments of the domestic and international researches.
Chapter 2:Theoretical basis of the contribution of ICT to the national economy. The main research methods of this paper include Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), Econometrics, Input-output method and System Dynamics approach. The main task of this chapter is to make detailed descriptions to the several methods mentioned above.
Chapter 3:Calculation of the contribution ratio of ICT industry to the national economy from the measurement perspective. Based on the Cobb-Douglas function of Econometrics, the capital elasticity and labor elasticity of ICT industry as well as its comprehensive technical levels in both cases of constant returns to scale and non-constant returns to scale are calculated in this chapter. And with the Solow Complementary method, the contribution proportion of technology, capital and labor in ICT industry to output value added are measured.
Chapter 4:Analysis of efficiency of China's ICT industry based on DEA. With DEA, the economic efficiency of China's ICT industry in 2003-2008 (recent) is calculated, analyzed and evaluated; the economic efficiency of China's ICT industry in 1995-2008 (long term) is calculated, analyzed and evaluated; changes of total factor productivity, technical efficiency and technology of provincial ICT industry in china between 2003 and 2008 are calculated, analyzed and evaluated as well.
Chapter 5:Calculation on contribution of ICT to national economy with the input-output method. Based on the input-output method, it is analyzed and calculated quantitatively that the direct consumption, fully consumed, fully demand, direct allocation, completely distributive and complete supply of ICT to other departments, the promotion effect of ICT industry to the national economy, the impact of the driving effect of ICT to the composition of the total investment, and the impact of telecommunications industry to the composition of the aggregate output.
Chapter 6:Prediction research on the sustainability of the contribution of ICT based on System Dynamics. Firstly, the modeling procedures and flow graph structure of the model are presented, and causality of the model is illustrated as well, which leads to the model simulation and control analysis. The paper analyzes 5 sub-system simulation results and compared the effects of the changes in exogenous variables on the 5 sub-system during the period of 2003 to 2020.
Chapter 7:Summary. Summarize the full text and put forward suggestions. And the limitations of the paper are pointed out as well.
本文共分为七章。
第一章：导论。首先对ICT的作用、影响以及在经济发展中的地位进行了概述,根据国家统计局的规定对ICT进行了界定。通过对国内外相关研究的评述,引出本文的研究定位、研究的框架和研究创新点。
第二章：ICT对国民经济贡献研究的理论基础。本文的主要研究方法有数据包络分析法(DEA)、计量经济学、投入产出法和系统动力学的方法。本章的主要内容在于对前面提到的几种方法的理论基础分别进行了较为详细的阐述。
第三章：基于计量角度的ICT产业对国民经济贡献率的测算。本章基于计量经济学的柯布道格拉斯函数就规模报酬不变和非规模报酬不变的两种情况下对ICT产业的资本以及劳动的弹性系数以及综合技术水平进行了测算；并用索罗余值法对全国、地区以及各省ICT产业的技术、资本、劳动对产出增加值的贡献率进行了测算以及评价。
第四章：基于DEA方法的我国ICT产业效率分析。本章运用DEA方法,对2003年-2008年(近期)我国ICT产业的经济效率进行了测算、分析和评价；对1995年-2008年(长期)我国ICT产业经济效率进行了测算、分析和评价；对我国省际ICT产业2003-2008年间全要素生产率的变化、技术效率的变化、技术的变化等值进行了测算、分析及评价。
第五章：基于投入产出的ICT对国民经济贡献测量。本章利用投入产出方法对ICT产业对各部门的直接消耗、完全消耗、完全需求、直接分配、完全分配、完全供给及ICT产业对国民经济的带动和推动影响、ICT带动作用对总投入构成的影响、电信业推动作用对总产出构成的影响进行了定量计算和分析。
第六章：基于系统动力学对ICT贡献的可持续研究。首先确立本章的建模思路和模型流图结构,并对模型的因果关系进行说明,从而引出模型的仿真与控制分析。系统模拟仿真从2003年度至2020年度,分析了这期间的5个子系统的仿真结果,并比对了外生变量的变化对5个子系统的影响效果。
第七章：总结。总结全文主要研究成果并提出策略建议。同时指出研究未尽之处。
In recent years, with the integration of information technology and communication technology, a new concept——information and communication technology appeared, that is, ICT. Because of its great role in the growth of the global economy and the elimination of the "digital divide", ICT industry has been the preferential developmental industry of each country to seize the commanding point of the new round of economic growth. Especially, in China, because of the urgent needs to transform the economic growth mode to promote a new round of economic growth, the prominent role of ICT industry is becoming more and more obvious, and it has been ranked as basic, leading and pillar industry to develop. Therefore, it is necessary and urgent to quantize the operational efficiency of ICT industry and its contribution to the national economy, to research its contribution mechanism and sustainability, and to put forward the development strategy. This is the very theme of the paper.
This paper is divided into seven chapters.
Chapter 1:Introduction. Firstly, the paper summarizes the influence of ICT and its role in the economic development. And then, ICT is defined according to the rule of the State Statistical Bureau. Finally, the research orientation, framework and innovation of this paper are raised through comments of the domestic and international researches.
Chapter 2:Theoretical basis of the contribution of ICT to the national economy. The main research methods of this paper include Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), Econometrics, Input-output method and System Dynamics approach. The main task of this chapter is to make detailed descriptions to the several methods mentioned above.
Chapter 3:Calculation of the contribution ratio of ICT industry to the national economy from the measurement perspective. Based on the Cobb-Douglas function of Econometrics, the capital elasticity and labor elasticity of ICT industry as well as its comprehensive technical levels in both cases of constant returns to scale and non-constant returns to scale are calculated in this chapter. And with the Solow Complementary method, the contribution proportion of technology, capital and labor in ICT industry to output value added are measured.
Chapter 4:Analysis of efficiency of China's ICT industry based on DEA. With DEA, the economic efficiency of China's ICT industry in 2003-2008 (recent) is calculated, analyzed and evaluated; the economic efficiency of China's ICT industry in 1995-2008 (long term) is calculated, analyzed and evaluated; changes of total factor productivity, technical efficiency and technology of provincial ICT industry in china between 2003 and 2008 are calculated, analyzed and evaluated as well.
Chapter 5:Calculation on contribution of ICT to national economy with the input-output method. Based on the input-output method, it is analyzed and calculated quantitatively that the direct consumption, fully consumed, fully demand, direct allocation, completely distributive and complete supply of ICT to other departments, the promotion effect of ICT industry to the national economy, the impact of the driving effect of ICT to the composition of the total investment, and the impact of telecommunications industry to the composition of the aggregate output.
Chapter 6:Prediction research on the sustainability of the contribution of ICT based on System Dynamics. Firstly, the modeling procedures and flow graph structure of the model are presented, and causality of the model is illustrated as well, which leads to the model simulation and control analysis. The paper analyzes 5 sub-system simulation results and compared the effects of the changes in exogenous variables on the 5 sub-system during the period of 2003 to 2020.
Chapter 7:Summary. Summarize the full text and put forward suggestions. And the limitations of the paper are pointed out as well.
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[1]施莉,基于增长核算模型的中国IT经济价值量化测算研究,西南交通大学博士论文,2007
[2]赵俊民,全国视角下的陕西省经济增长因素研究——基于1978-2007年数据的实证分析,西北大学博士论文,2009
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[4]郑宇晟,基于电信信息服务市场结构问题的研究,北京邮电大学博士论文,2007
[5]陈霞,中国电信业对国民经济的贡献及贡献的可持续研究,北京邮电大学博士论文,2007
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[1]施莉,基于增长核算模型的中国IT经济价值量化测算研究,西南交通大学博士论文,2007
[2]赵俊民,全国视角下的陕西省经济增长因素研究——基于1978-2007年数据的实证分析,西北大学博士论文,2009
[3]陈颖,李强,索罗余值法测算科技进步贡献率的局限与改进,科学学研究,2006(12)
[4]郑宇晟,基于电信信息服务市场结构问题的研究,北京邮电大学博士论文,2007
[5]陈霞,中国电信业对国民经济的贡献及贡献的可持续研究,北京邮电大学博士论文,2007
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