中国农业科研投资优化配置研究
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摘要
本研究利用1978-2007年中国国家级和省级数据,测算农业科研投资对农业经济增长、减贫和宏观经济的作用,模拟农业科研投资在区域间和部门间的优化配置方案。实证研究表明,农业科研投资的经济回报率非常高,并且对贫困和宏观经济都有显著影响;但是,科研投资在不同区域和不同部门的经济效率和贫困影响都存在着明显差异,各个农业部门科研投资的宏观经济表现也不相同;优化科研投资的分配结构,可以改善科研投资的配置效率。
研究中首先依据农业生态特征和行政区划将中国划分为八个区域,然后运用计量经济学方法评价了农业科研投资的经济效率和对贫困的影响,依据边际相等的资源最优分配原则,构建数学规划模型,分别以农业经济增长和减少贫困为目标,动态模拟农业科研投资在区域间和部门间的最优配置方案及其优化效率。基于以上研究结果,运用动态可计算的一般均衡(DCGE)模型模拟分析农业科研投资分配政策对未来国民经济的影响,估算农业科研投资的宏观经济收益和优化科研投资分配的宏观经济效果。
从区域来看,华中区农业科研投资的边际经济收益最高,华北区其次,东北区和西南区居中,而西北1区和西北2区相对较低,华南区最低;而西北2区和西南区农业科研投资的边际贫困影响最为显著,西北1区和华中区其次,东北区和华北区居中,而华南区和东南区相对较小。增加华中区和华北区的科研投资可以促进农业经济增长;增加西北2区、西南区和西北1区以及华中区的科研投资可以有效的减少贫困人口。
从部门来看,增加一单位畜牧业科研投资的长期收益为50单位左右,投资种植业和渔业的边际收益分别为30和15单位左右;增加一万元畜牧业科研投资,可以使贫困人口减少约28人,投资种植业和渔业科研则可以分别减少约17人和12人。从经济效率和减少贫困两方面考虑,都应重点增加畜牧业的科研投资。
农业科研投资不仅加快了农业经济增长,而且对GDP、投资、消费和贸易以及其它产业都有显著的正面影响,农业科研投资带动GDP增长约0.3个百分点,投资和消费增长约0.5个百分点,与农业相关的工业和私人服务业具有较强的产业关联,年均增长率分别提高0.9和0.2个百分点。宏观收益比是部门收益比的近两倍,种植业、畜牧业和渔业科研投资的平均宏观经济成本收益比分别为13、14和6左右。模拟方案表明:调整农业科研投资的部门分配结构,加大畜牧业科研投资比例,可以改善科研投资效率;加大农业科研投资力度可以明显拉动农业和国民经济增长。
研究结论有助于我们认识农业科研投资对于农业经济增长、粮食安全、减少贫困和宏观经济等重要作用,为优化科研投资的分配结构提供可选择的决策参考。农业科研投资具有广泛深远的影响,建议政府加大投资力度,优化区域和部门分配结构,兼顾公平与效率,加大中西部地区的农业科研投资,尤其是增加畜牧业的科研投资,建立中央财政支持贫困地区的科研投资机制,增强当地研究机构的科研能力,拓宽农民增收渠道,帮助脱贫致富,使研究工作满足社会需要。
本研究的主要创新在于从经济增长和减少贫困两个目标研究农业科研投资的配置问题和引入动态CGE模型分析农业科研投资的宏观经济影响,拓宽研究视野,提供可供靠的数字证据。
Using national and provincial level data from 1978 to 2007, this paper evaluates the impacts of agricultural research and development (R&D) investment to agricultural economy growth and poverty reduction and marco-economy, and simulates the scenarios of how to optimize the allocation among agricultural sub-sectors and regions. Empirical research shows that the return of agricultural R&D investment is very high, and agricultural R&D investment also has significant impact on poverty and macro-economic growth. However, both marginal economic return and poverty impact of agricultural R&D investment vary from different zones and sub-sectors obviously, the effects on macro economy are different as well. Results that optimizing the allocation among zones and sub-sectors can improve the allocation efficiency.
Eight agro-ecological zones are divided in China firstly, and econometrical method is used to evaluate the economical efficiency and impact on poverty in the past years, and math programming models are build under the optimal allocation principle that marginal return is equal to simulate the scenarios of how to allocate it and calculate its efficiency among agriculture sub-sectors and regions under two objectives of agricultural economy growth and poverty reduction. Base on the above re-search results, China dynamical computable general equilibrium model (DCGE) is developed to simulate the policies of agricultural R&D investment allocation, analyze the impacts on future na-tional economy and estimate the macro-economical return and efficiency of improving the allocation structure.
From the aspect of region, the marginal economic return of agricultural R&D investment in HuaZhong zone is highest among all, HuaBei zone is the second one, DongBei and XiNan zones are at the middle level, XiBeiΙand XiBeiΠzone are lower relatively, HuaNan is the lowest one; while for the marginal poverty impact, XibeiΠand XiNan zones are mostly significant, XibeiΙand HuaZhong zones are second, DongBei and HuaBei zones are middle, HuaNan and DongNan zones are lowest. The increase in agricultural R&D investment in HuaZhong and HuaBei zones can promote the growth of agricultural economy, while more R&D investment invests to XiBeiΠand XiNan and XiBeiΙand HuaZhong zones can reduce poverty efficiently.
From the aspect of sub-sector, if increase one unit R&D investment to livestock sector, the eco-nomic return is about 50 units, the returns of crop and fish sector R&D investment are around 30 and 15 units respectively. If 10,000Yuan R&D investment to livestock sector, about 28 persons poor peo-ple will be reduced,and about 17 and 12 persons poor people will be reduced if R&D invest to crop and fish sector respectively. In terms of both economic efficiency and poverty reduction, R&D in-vestment for livestock sector should be increased.
Agricultural R&D investment not only accelerates the growth of agriculture economy, but also has positive impact on the growth of GDP, investment, consumption, trade and growth in other sec-tors, agricultural R&D investment increase growth rate of GDP by 0.3 percent, investment and con-sumption increase by 0.5 percent, especially the agriculture related industries and private service in- dustries increase more significantly, by 0.9 and 0.2 percent respectively. Ratio of macro benefit to cost is almost double times that of the sectoral benefit to cost, the average ratio of macro benefit to cost of crop, livestock, and fish sector is around 13, 14 and 6, respectively.Increase of the ratio of R&D investment to livestock sector can improve the total efficiency of agricultural R&D investment, and the increase of agricultural R&D investment can promote the growth of agriculture and national economy.
Research results of this paper will be helpful for us to understand the importance of agricultural R&D in agricultural growth, food security, overall macroeconomic growth and poverty reduction, Agricultural R&D investment has extensive and far-reaching effects. All of these suggest the gov-ernment to increase agricultural R&D investment, tradeoff between efficiency and equity, increase agricultural R&D investment to middle and west region, especially increase R&D investment to live-stock sector, build the mechanism of central fiscal supporting to agricultural R&D in poor regions, enhance the research ability of local R&D institutes, help alleviate poverty, expand income source for poor people, and make the research work satisfy the needs of society.
The main innovation of this paper is twin goals of growth and poverty reduction are considered when optimize the allocation of agricultural R&D investment, and dynamical CGE model is intro-duced to analyze the macro impacts of agricultural R&D investment, which expand our research scale, and also provides some useful digital evidence for decision making.
研究中首先依据农业生态特征和行政区划将中国划分为八个区域,然后运用计量经济学方法评价了农业科研投资的经济效率和对贫困的影响,依据边际相等的资源最优分配原则,构建数学规划模型,分别以农业经济增长和减少贫困为目标,动态模拟农业科研投资在区域间和部门间的最优配置方案及其优化效率。基于以上研究结果,运用动态可计算的一般均衡(DCGE)模型模拟分析农业科研投资分配政策对未来国民经济的影响,估算农业科研投资的宏观经济收益和优化科研投资分配的宏观经济效果。
从区域来看,华中区农业科研投资的边际经济收益最高,华北区其次,东北区和西南区居中,而西北1区和西北2区相对较低,华南区最低;而西北2区和西南区农业科研投资的边际贫困影响最为显著,西北1区和华中区其次,东北区和华北区居中,而华南区和东南区相对较小。增加华中区和华北区的科研投资可以促进农业经济增长;增加西北2区、西南区和西北1区以及华中区的科研投资可以有效的减少贫困人口。
从部门来看,增加一单位畜牧业科研投资的长期收益为50单位左右,投资种植业和渔业的边际收益分别为30和15单位左右;增加一万元畜牧业科研投资,可以使贫困人口减少约28人,投资种植业和渔业科研则可以分别减少约17人和12人。从经济效率和减少贫困两方面考虑,都应重点增加畜牧业的科研投资。
农业科研投资不仅加快了农业经济增长,而且对GDP、投资、消费和贸易以及其它产业都有显著的正面影响,农业科研投资带动GDP增长约0.3个百分点,投资和消费增长约0.5个百分点,与农业相关的工业和私人服务业具有较强的产业关联,年均增长率分别提高0.9和0.2个百分点。宏观收益比是部门收益比的近两倍,种植业、畜牧业和渔业科研投资的平均宏观经济成本收益比分别为13、14和6左右。模拟方案表明:调整农业科研投资的部门分配结构,加大畜牧业科研投资比例,可以改善科研投资效率;加大农业科研投资力度可以明显拉动农业和国民经济增长。
研究结论有助于我们认识农业科研投资对于农业经济增长、粮食安全、减少贫困和宏观经济等重要作用,为优化科研投资的分配结构提供可选择的决策参考。农业科研投资具有广泛深远的影响,建议政府加大投资力度,优化区域和部门分配结构,兼顾公平与效率,加大中西部地区的农业科研投资,尤其是增加畜牧业的科研投资,建立中央财政支持贫困地区的科研投资机制,增强当地研究机构的科研能力,拓宽农民增收渠道,帮助脱贫致富,使研究工作满足社会需要。
本研究的主要创新在于从经济增长和减少贫困两个目标研究农业科研投资的配置问题和引入动态CGE模型分析农业科研投资的宏观经济影响,拓宽研究视野,提供可供靠的数字证据。
Using national and provincial level data from 1978 to 2007, this paper evaluates the impacts of agricultural research and development (R&D) investment to agricultural economy growth and poverty reduction and marco-economy, and simulates the scenarios of how to optimize the allocation among agricultural sub-sectors and regions. Empirical research shows that the return of agricultural R&D investment is very high, and agricultural R&D investment also has significant impact on poverty and macro-economic growth. However, both marginal economic return and poverty impact of agricultural R&D investment vary from different zones and sub-sectors obviously, the effects on macro economy are different as well. Results that optimizing the allocation among zones and sub-sectors can improve the allocation efficiency.
Eight agro-ecological zones are divided in China firstly, and econometrical method is used to evaluate the economical efficiency and impact on poverty in the past years, and math programming models are build under the optimal allocation principle that marginal return is equal to simulate the scenarios of how to allocate it and calculate its efficiency among agriculture sub-sectors and regions under two objectives of agricultural economy growth and poverty reduction. Base on the above re-search results, China dynamical computable general equilibrium model (DCGE) is developed to simulate the policies of agricultural R&D investment allocation, analyze the impacts on future na-tional economy and estimate the macro-economical return and efficiency of improving the allocation structure.
From the aspect of region, the marginal economic return of agricultural R&D investment in HuaZhong zone is highest among all, HuaBei zone is the second one, DongBei and XiNan zones are at the middle level, XiBeiΙand XiBeiΠzone are lower relatively, HuaNan is the lowest one; while for the marginal poverty impact, XibeiΠand XiNan zones are mostly significant, XibeiΙand HuaZhong zones are second, DongBei and HuaBei zones are middle, HuaNan and DongNan zones are lowest. The increase in agricultural R&D investment in HuaZhong and HuaBei zones can promote the growth of agricultural economy, while more R&D investment invests to XiBeiΠand XiNan and XiBeiΙand HuaZhong zones can reduce poverty efficiently.
From the aspect of sub-sector, if increase one unit R&D investment to livestock sector, the eco-nomic return is about 50 units, the returns of crop and fish sector R&D investment are around 30 and 15 units respectively. If 10,000Yuan R&D investment to livestock sector, about 28 persons poor peo-ple will be reduced,and about 17 and 12 persons poor people will be reduced if R&D invest to crop and fish sector respectively. In terms of both economic efficiency and poverty reduction, R&D in-vestment for livestock sector should be increased.
Agricultural R&D investment not only accelerates the growth of agriculture economy, but also has positive impact on the growth of GDP, investment, consumption, trade and growth in other sec-tors, agricultural R&D investment increase growth rate of GDP by 0.3 percent, investment and con-sumption increase by 0.5 percent, especially the agriculture related industries and private service in- dustries increase more significantly, by 0.9 and 0.2 percent respectively. Ratio of macro benefit to cost is almost double times that of the sectoral benefit to cost, the average ratio of macro benefit to cost of crop, livestock, and fish sector is around 13, 14 and 6, respectively.Increase of the ratio of R&D investment to livestock sector can improve the total efficiency of agricultural R&D investment, and the increase of agricultural R&D investment can promote the growth of agriculture and national economy.
Research results of this paper will be helpful for us to understand the importance of agricultural R&D in agricultural growth, food security, overall macroeconomic growth and poverty reduction, Agricultural R&D investment has extensive and far-reaching effects. All of these suggest the gov-ernment to increase agricultural R&D investment, tradeoff between efficiency and equity, increase agricultural R&D investment to middle and west region, especially increase R&D investment to live-stock sector, build the mechanism of central fiscal supporting to agricultural R&D in poor regions, enhance the research ability of local R&D institutes, help alleviate poverty, expand income source for poor people, and make the research work satisfy the needs of society.
The main innovation of this paper is twin goals of growth and poverty reduction are considered when optimize the allocation of agricultural R&D investment, and dynamical CGE model is intro-duced to analyze the macro impacts of agricultural R&D investment, which expand our research scale, and also provides some useful digital evidence for decision making.
引文
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