中国城市经济增长过程中的产业结构变动研究
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摘要
经济增长是宏观经济学研究的中心。传统的新古典经济学认为,产品和要素市场总是能够保持均衡,无论从生产者还是从消费者的角度来看,资源都处于长期的有效配置状态(即帕累托最优状态)。因此,劳动和资本在不同产业部门间的边际生产率是相等的,部门间劳动和资本的流动(即产业结构变动)不会对总产出产生任何影响,资源的重新配置只有在经济扩张时期才会产生收益。根据以上观点,新古典增长经济学将总产出的增长归结为资本积累、劳动力数量的增加和质量的提高、中间投入的增加以及全要素生产率的增长等。
以美国经济学家钱纳里为代表的结构主义学派则认为,经济是非均衡的,资源不可能长期处于有效配置状态。产生非均衡的原因主要在于许多国家尤其是发展中国家内部传统产业与现代产业并存的二元经济形态,而且在传统产业内部存在着大量不能为现代产业所吸收的剩余劳动力。经济非均衡意味着劳动和资本在不同产业部门间的边际生产率是不同的。因此,通过部门间劳动和资本要素的重新配置无疑会增加总产出,从而促进经济增长。
Lucas(1988,2002)强调了城市与经济增长的关系。城市是人力资本的集中地,城市的存在与发展是人力资本外部性的重要体现,并可以作为人力资本存量的一种度量形式。城市又是先进生产技术积聚的场所,城市化的过程就是劳动密集型技术向人力资本密集型技术转移的过程。因此,城市是一国经济增长的核心空间,具有不同于国家(nations)的经济特征。Lucas对城市在经济增长中作用的理解,为现有文献所忽视。基于此,本文选择以城市为经济单位,研究城市经济增长过程中的产业结构变动。产业结构变动是生产要素转移或流动的过程。因此,本文沿着要素效率—产业结构—经济增长的研究思路,对三者的内在联系进行了理论和实证研究。本文共分为七章。
第一章是对论文选题的一个简单介绍。首先在阐述城市是经济增长核心这个事实的基础上,总结了本文所具有的理论意义和现实意义。然后,对国内外相关理论和实证的研究成果进行综述。最后,阐明了本文的研究对象和研究方法。
第二章分析了发达国家和城市产业结构演变的轨迹,进一步印证了所提出的城市产业结构的主要特征和发展趋势。
第三章对1988年以来中国城市产业结构的变动进行了深入分析,解析了三次产业之间的比例关系变化。
第四章从自然资源、社会供给、社会需求等方面分析了城市产业结构变动的原因,具体考察了自然资源、消费结构、投资结构、技术进步、制度、经济政策等因素所导致的产业结构变动。
第五章通过一个非均衡增长模型实证研究了城市产业间要素边际生产率的差异。由于生产要素在不同产业间存在边际生产率的差异,通过将生产要素由低生产率部门向高生产率部门的再配置,将会促进经济增长。而生产要素的产业间转移或流动就是产业结构的变动过程。
第六章在前面五章理论和实证分析的基础上,指出了中国城市产业结构发展的方向,以及政府在城市产业结构变动过程中所发挥的作用。
第七章是全文的结束语,总结了本研究主要结论,指出了论文的创新点和需要进一步改进之处。
Study on economic growth is the key objective of macro economics. Neo-classical theory of economic growth said that product and factor markets always keep in balance, and no matter from the point of view of producer or consumer, resource exists long term effective configuration, called Pareto optimal state. Therefore the marginal productivity of capital and labour are the same in differential Industry department, also the flow of capital and labour among differential industry department doesn’t have any affect on the output. Reconfiguration of resource will bring benefit only in the period of economic extension. Based on above points, new classical economics regards the power of growth of total output as capital accumulation、quantity of labor force、improvement of quality、increasing proportion of intermediate input、total factor productivity growth and so on.
U.S. economist H.B. Chenery as the representative of Structuralist school believes that economy is unbalanced and resources can’t be long in the effective distribution of state. A non-balanced main reason is that many countries, especially developing countries within the traditional industries and modern industries co-exist in the dual economic shape, in memory of traditional industries in a large number of modern industry can’t be absorbed by the surplus labor force. Non-balanced economy means that labor and capital in different sectors of the marginal productivity is different. Therefore, through the departments of labor and capital between the elements of the re-allocation will undoubtedly increase the total output, thereby promoting economic growth.
Lucas (1988, 2002) stressed that city has close relationship with economic growth, for human capital is concentrated in city, and urban existence and development is an important manifestation of the external property of human capital, also it can be a form of measurement human capital stock. Moreover city is the accumulation place of advanced production technology. Urbanization process is labor-intensive technology to human capital-intensive technology transfer process. Therefore, the city is a country's economic growth in the core space, and the city is different from the countries (nations) the economic characteristics. The understanding of city in economic growth from Lucas is neglected by the existing literature. Based on this, we choose city as economic units, and further study the change of industrial structure in economic growth. The change in industrial structure is the transfer or movement of factors of production process, so this paper will along the efficiency of factor - industrial structure– ideas of economic growth, do theoretical and empirical research on the inner links among them. This paper is divided into seven chapters.
Chapter 1 is a simple introduction of thesis topics. First based on the description of the fact that city is the core of economic growth, sums up the theoretical and practical significance of this paper, then reviews the theory of domestic and foreign-related research, finally clarifies the object of study and research methods in this paper.
Chapter 2 analyzes the track of evolution of the industrial structure in developed countries and cities, and further confirms main features and development trends of the industrial structure in cities given by this paper.
Chapter 3 makes a deep analysis on the changes in industrial structure of Chinese cities since 1988, then describes the changes of the ratios between three industrial relations.
Chapter 4 analyzes the reasons which result in the changes of the urban industrial structure from differential sections, such as natural resources, social supply, social demand and so on. Natural resources, consumption structure, investment structure, technological progress, institutional factors, economic policy and other factors will be considered in this chapter.
Chapter 5 makes a study on the differences of marginal productivity in factors among different urban industries. Due to the differences of marginal productivity of factor of production in different industries, if transfers factors of production from the department with low productivity to the department with high productivity, then it will promote economic growth. The movement of factors of production among different industries is the change process of industrial structure. According to the theoretical and empirical analysis in the five chapters ahead,
Chapter 6 points out the direction of the industrial development of Chinese cities and the function of government in the changes of urban industrial structure.
Chapter 7 makes a concluding remark for this full paper, which points out the innovation of this paper, also mentions that some places need to further study.
以美国经济学家钱纳里为代表的结构主义学派则认为,经济是非均衡的,资源不可能长期处于有效配置状态。产生非均衡的原因主要在于许多国家尤其是发展中国家内部传统产业与现代产业并存的二元经济形态,而且在传统产业内部存在着大量不能为现代产业所吸收的剩余劳动力。经济非均衡意味着劳动和资本在不同产业部门间的边际生产率是不同的。因此,通过部门间劳动和资本要素的重新配置无疑会增加总产出,从而促进经济增长。
Lucas(1988,2002)强调了城市与经济增长的关系。城市是人力资本的集中地,城市的存在与发展是人力资本外部性的重要体现,并可以作为人力资本存量的一种度量形式。城市又是先进生产技术积聚的场所,城市化的过程就是劳动密集型技术向人力资本密集型技术转移的过程。因此,城市是一国经济增长的核心空间,具有不同于国家(nations)的经济特征。Lucas对城市在经济增长中作用的理解,为现有文献所忽视。基于此,本文选择以城市为经济单位,研究城市经济增长过程中的产业结构变动。产业结构变动是生产要素转移或流动的过程。因此,本文沿着要素效率—产业结构—经济增长的研究思路,对三者的内在联系进行了理论和实证研究。本文共分为七章。
第一章是对论文选题的一个简单介绍。首先在阐述城市是经济增长核心这个事实的基础上,总结了本文所具有的理论意义和现实意义。然后,对国内外相关理论和实证的研究成果进行综述。最后,阐明了本文的研究对象和研究方法。
第二章分析了发达国家和城市产业结构演变的轨迹,进一步印证了所提出的城市产业结构的主要特征和发展趋势。
第三章对1988年以来中国城市产业结构的变动进行了深入分析,解析了三次产业之间的比例关系变化。
第四章从自然资源、社会供给、社会需求等方面分析了城市产业结构变动的原因,具体考察了自然资源、消费结构、投资结构、技术进步、制度、经济政策等因素所导致的产业结构变动。
第五章通过一个非均衡增长模型实证研究了城市产业间要素边际生产率的差异。由于生产要素在不同产业间存在边际生产率的差异,通过将生产要素由低生产率部门向高生产率部门的再配置,将会促进经济增长。而生产要素的产业间转移或流动就是产业结构的变动过程。
第六章在前面五章理论和实证分析的基础上,指出了中国城市产业结构发展的方向,以及政府在城市产业结构变动过程中所发挥的作用。
第七章是全文的结束语,总结了本研究主要结论,指出了论文的创新点和需要进一步改进之处。
Study on economic growth is the key objective of macro economics. Neo-classical theory of economic growth said that product and factor markets always keep in balance, and no matter from the point of view of producer or consumer, resource exists long term effective configuration, called Pareto optimal state. Therefore the marginal productivity of capital and labour are the same in differential Industry department, also the flow of capital and labour among differential industry department doesn’t have any affect on the output. Reconfiguration of resource will bring benefit only in the period of economic extension. Based on above points, new classical economics regards the power of growth of total output as capital accumulation、quantity of labor force、improvement of quality、increasing proportion of intermediate input、total factor productivity growth and so on.
U.S. economist H.B. Chenery as the representative of Structuralist school believes that economy is unbalanced and resources can’t be long in the effective distribution of state. A non-balanced main reason is that many countries, especially developing countries within the traditional industries and modern industries co-exist in the dual economic shape, in memory of traditional industries in a large number of modern industry can’t be absorbed by the surplus labor force. Non-balanced economy means that labor and capital in different sectors of the marginal productivity is different. Therefore, through the departments of labor and capital between the elements of the re-allocation will undoubtedly increase the total output, thereby promoting economic growth.
Lucas (1988, 2002) stressed that city has close relationship with economic growth, for human capital is concentrated in city, and urban existence and development is an important manifestation of the external property of human capital, also it can be a form of measurement human capital stock. Moreover city is the accumulation place of advanced production technology. Urbanization process is labor-intensive technology to human capital-intensive technology transfer process. Therefore, the city is a country's economic growth in the core space, and the city is different from the countries (nations) the economic characteristics. The understanding of city in economic growth from Lucas is neglected by the existing literature. Based on this, we choose city as economic units, and further study the change of industrial structure in economic growth. The change in industrial structure is the transfer or movement of factors of production process, so this paper will along the efficiency of factor - industrial structure– ideas of economic growth, do theoretical and empirical research on the inner links among them. This paper is divided into seven chapters.
Chapter 1 is a simple introduction of thesis topics. First based on the description of the fact that city is the core of economic growth, sums up the theoretical and practical significance of this paper, then reviews the theory of domestic and foreign-related research, finally clarifies the object of study and research methods in this paper.
Chapter 2 analyzes the track of evolution of the industrial structure in developed countries and cities, and further confirms main features and development trends of the industrial structure in cities given by this paper.
Chapter 3 makes a deep analysis on the changes in industrial structure of Chinese cities since 1988, then describes the changes of the ratios between three industrial relations.
Chapter 4 analyzes the reasons which result in the changes of the urban industrial structure from differential sections, such as natural resources, social supply, social demand and so on. Natural resources, consumption structure, investment structure, technological progress, institutional factors, economic policy and other factors will be considered in this chapter.
Chapter 5 makes a study on the differences of marginal productivity in factors among different urban industries. Due to the differences of marginal productivity of factor of production in different industries, if transfers factors of production from the department with low productivity to the department with high productivity, then it will promote economic growth. The movement of factors of production among different industries is the change process of industrial structure. According to the theoretical and empirical analysis in the five chapters ahead,
Chapter 6 points out the direction of the industrial development of Chinese cities and the function of government in the changes of urban industrial structure.
Chapter 7 makes a concluding remark for this full paper, which points out the innovation of this paper, also mentions that some places need to further study.
引文
①谢文惠、邓卫.城市经济学[M].北京:清华大学出版社,1996,45-46
①约翰·伊特韦尔,默里·米尔盖特,彼得·纽曼.新帕尔格雷夫大辞典[M].北京:经济科学出版社,1996,4:565-567
②朱明春.产业结构·机制·政策[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,1990:71-72
③何大安.投资流向与结构调整、结构升级的关联分析[J].经济研究,2001(11):45-51
①戴伯勋等.现代产业经济学[M].北京:经济管理出版社,2001:265-266
①蒋昭侠.产业结构问题研究[M].北京:中国经济出版社,2005:10-11
①H.钱纳里等.工业化和经济增长的比较研究(中译本)[M].上海:三联书店,1989:70-78
②发展经济学在二战后半个多世纪的发展中经历了一个由盛转衰的过程,这并不代表发展问题已经过时。Krugman(1991)认为,原因在于:形式化分析模型发展的滞后导致发展经济学文献对于现实中重大发展问题的理论解答极度贫乏。而对于发展经济学的未来发展取向,理论界也提出了不同的见解。赖平耀(2003)认为,发展经济学应该作为增长经济学的一个应用学科,并在增长理论的基础上重建。
①参见H.钱纳里、S.鲁宾逊、M.赛尔奎因.工业化和经济增长的比较研究[M].上海:三联书店,1989:41-48、360-384
①H.钱纳里、S.鲁宾逊、M.赛尔奎因.工业化和经济增长的比较研究[M].上海:三联书店,1989:93
①由于梧州市、防城港市、拉萨市数据缺乏,因此未包括这三个城市。
①相关研究可参见陈国阶(1994)。
①诺斯.财产制度与社会变迁——产权学派[M].新制度经济学派译文.上海:上海三联书店,1991:270-271
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②朱明春.产业结构·机制·政策[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,1990:71-72
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①戴伯勋等.现代产业经济学[M].北京:经济管理出版社,2001:265-266
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①H.钱纳里等.工业化和经济增长的比较研究(中译本)[M].上海:三联书店,1989:70-78
②发展经济学在二战后半个多世纪的发展中经历了一个由盛转衰的过程,这并不代表发展问题已经过时。Krugman(1991)认为,原因在于:形式化分析模型发展的滞后导致发展经济学文献对于现实中重大发展问题的理论解答极度贫乏。而对于发展经济学的未来发展取向,理论界也提出了不同的见解。赖平耀(2003)认为,发展经济学应该作为增长经济学的一个应用学科,并在增长理论的基础上重建。
①参见H.钱纳里、S.鲁宾逊、M.赛尔奎因.工业化和经济增长的比较研究[M].上海:三联书店,1989:41-48、360-384
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①由于梧州市、防城港市、拉萨市数据缺乏,因此未包括这三个城市。
①相关研究可参见陈国阶(1994)。
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