现代服务业集聚统计模型及其应用
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摘要
一直以来,集聚研究主要集中在制造业,对服务业集聚研究甚少。在全球呈现出“二业型经济”向“服务型经济”转型的总趋势下,全球服务业迅速发展,服务业在地理空间上的集聚趋势进一步增强,集聚发展对服务业竞争力的影响大大提高,一些学者开始关注现代服务业集聚研究,但是以现代服务业集聚现象为研究对象的统计测度方法研究和现代服务业集聚计量模型分析并未受到足够重视,以计量分析方法考察现代服务业集聚的文献非常零散且不系统。由于服务产出计量的困难以及相关统计制度的滞后,服务业实证研究一直是服务经济研究的一个薄弱环节,由此也局限了理论本身在更广范围内的解释力。因此,本文以现代服务业集聚现象为研究对象,借助计量分析工具构建现代服务业集聚统计分析框架,寻找现代服务业集聚发展规律具有重要的理论意义和现实意义。
本文结合服务经济学、经济地理学、空间经济学等相关理论,在对现代服务业集聚基本理论研究的基础上,结合现代服务业的特征,构建现代服务业集聚统计分析体系,即现代服务业集聚现象测度、集聚演化、集聚形成机理、集聚竞争力等统计模型体系,并结合我国实际进行应用研究。具体体现在以下五个方面：
第一,在系统梳理国内外学者对现代服务业集聚机制、集聚演化、集聚竞争力等相关研究成果的基础上,结合现代服务业的特征,对现代服务业集聚、集聚竞争优势及其形成机制等基本理论进行研究,从而建立现代服务业集聚统计模型及其应用的理论平台。研究表明,现代服务业集聚的本质是在某一领域,基于精细分工和专业化产业链在特定地域的集聚及其所形成的互动关系。现代服务业集聚竞争优势表现为成本优势、外部经济优势、创新优势、品牌优势等,这是集聚协作竞争机制、知识溢出机制、自我增强机制、协调整合机制等交互作用的结果。
第二,在系统梳理产业集聚测度方法的基础上,从静态和动态两个角度,构建现代服务业集聚现象的统计测度指标体系和动态面板计量模型,并对我国现代服务业集聚状况进行动态描述,从而把握现代服务业集聚变动的内在规律。研究表明,我国服务业总体集聚程度较低(γ系数均低于0.05),难以形成有效的集聚竞争力。分行业看,生产性服务业具有较高的区域集聚趋势和较明显的企业集聚趋势,消费性服务业中的大多数社会服务业受政府宏观主导,行业垄断市场难以形成,其区域集聚程度和行业内企业集聚程度都很低。显著性检验表明,我国服务业集聚现象具有统计显著性,各服务行业集聚差异程度显著。动态面板模型显示,服务业集聚水平变化是回复效应和随机效应共同作用的叠加。
第三,结合共生理论和经济演化论,构建现代服务业集聚演化的逻辑斯谛模型,分析现代服务业集聚增长影响因素、集聚企业共生关系、集聚演化机制等,从而揭示现代服务业集聚演化的基本规律。研究表明,现代服务业集聚类似于生物种群,有其孕育、成长、成熟以及衰退的过程。现代服务业集聚增长是非线性的,其增长不仅受制于产业集聚最大规模N值和集聚增长率α的大小影响,而且其受到集聚企业之间的共生关系影响。现代服务业集聚演化受到利益驱动和生态平衡所形成的正、负反馈机制的共同作用。我国现代服务业集聚演化符合Logistic模型。目前,我国现代服务业集聚主要存在市场主导型、市场和政府推动型、政府主导型等三种演化路径,针对我国现代服务业集聚演化中存在问题,应深化现代服务业体制机制改革；扩张产业链,提升要素资源的整合能力；坚持政府有为的原则,通过竞争机制,促进现代服务业有效集聚。
第四,在现代服务业集聚形成机理理论分析的基础上,纳入空间效应,构建了现代服务业集聚形成机理空间面板计量模型,检验现代服务业集聚影响因素的作用程度和作用方式。研究表明,我国现代服务业发展存在明显的空间相关性,各省域之间形成了较强的空间依赖作用和正的空间溢出效应。不同影响因素在时间、空间、时空维度的作用和影响各有不同。总的来说,技术差异在时间维度上对现代服务业集聚促进作用显著,在空间维度上并不显著；交易费用在空间和时空维度下与现代服务业集聚有显著的负相关性；规模经济在空间和时空效应下对现代服务业集聚促进作用显著；知识溢出和政府行为在时间、时空维度下都对现代服务业集聚促进作用显著。因此,在当前我国现代服务业集聚程度仍然偏低,集聚效应较小的情况下,应大力推进服务业技术创新,改善服务业技术效率；加强政府的扶持和规划指导作用,这是促进各地区现代服务业集聚发展的必然要求。
第五,在现代服务业集聚竞争力界定的基础上,借助结构方程模型,建立宏观层次的现代服务业集聚竞争力评价模型,科学评价我国现代服务业集聚竞争力及其区域差异；然后构建现代服务业集聚竞争力影响效应模型,对我国现代服务业集聚竞争力对服务业竞争力、经济发展水平的作用和机制进行系统分析,以探明现代服务业集聚竞争力的影响因素和作用路径。理论研究表明,从内部作用机制看,现代服务业集聚竞争力主要体现在市场效益、创新能力、集聚环境等三个方面。从外部影响效应看,现代服务业集聚竞争力对服务业竞争力和经济发展水平有很强的正向影响关系。实证研究表明,我国2002-2007年各地区现代服务业集聚竞争力整体上升缓慢,部分地区如云南、贵州、甘肃等省市在2002-2007年间整体有下滑趋势。从空间分析来看,我国28个地区现代服务业集聚竞争力呈等级分布,东部地区现代服务业集聚各要素竞争力均要高于中西部地区。因此,我国各地区应放宽市场准入,重视人才引进,发挥政府在现代服务业集聚环境优化中的作用,积极培育集聚竞争力各要素条件,整体提升现代服务业集聚竞争力。
So far, a majority of studies about agglomeration is in terms of manufacturing, rather than service industry. When the "industrial economics" turns to the "services economics" all over the world, the service industry developed rapidly. The trend of agglomeration in the spatial location is strengthened. Agglomeration development exerts a greater influence on the competitiveness of services. Some scholars have begun to pay close attention to the studies about the agglomeration of modern services, but the methods measured statistically, which study the clustering phenomenon about modern services agglomeration, and the measure models about modern services agglomeration are not valued by many scholars. What's more, the literatures, which make use of measure methods to study modern services agglomeration, are relatively thin and unsystematic. The studies about demonstration of services are still unsubstantial because the outputs about services are hard to be measured and the regulations related to statistics are hysteretic. Foreign theories about collection of services are mostly built on basis of experience of developed countries and areas in west. The paper uses techniques of econometrics to study the agglomeration phenomenon of modern services. It is play an important role in theory for seeking the statistical models about explore the inherent principle about the collection of modern services and conduction mechanism.
The paper use the relative theories about services economics, economic geography and spatial economics, based on the theory research of modern services agglomeration, combine the characters of modern services, using techniques of econometrics to structure the analytical system of modern services agglomeration, systematically study numerous problems about the modern services agglomeration in China, such as the clustering evolution, agglomeration features, agglomeration formation, competitiveness agglomeration and so on. The content Embodied in the following five areas:
(1) On the basis of research results of modern service industries agglomeration formation mechanism, clustering evolution, clustering and competitiveness at home and abroad, combined with the characteristics of modern service industry, the paper had be concentrated on the basic theory research of the nature of competitive advantage and the formation mechanism of modern service industries agglomeration, thus establishing the modern service industry gathering statistical model theory and its applications platform. Research shows that the essence of modern service industries is concentrated in certain areas, based on precise division of labor and specialization in a specific geographic chain formed by the accumulation of their interaction. The performance of modern service industries agglomeration has competitive advantage of cost advantage, external economic advantage, innovation, brand and so on. These competitive advantages are coordinated and integrated the results of the collaborative competition mechanism, knowledge spillover mechanism, self-reinforcing mechanism, coordinate and integration mechanism.
(2) In the basis of systematic criticism of several kind of industry agglomeration measurements, from two aspects which are static and dynamic, this paper build a measure model for the phenomenon of service sectors'clustering, including a indices system and a dynamic panel model as well, to carry out an empirical analysis about the spatial agglomeration characteristics and the industry mobility of China's services from year 2003 to 2007.The conclusions show, According to the measurement of indices system of services'agglomeration, the average service sectors indicates a low degree of concentration, almost all of theγcoefficients are smaller than 0.05.In the view of industry, producer services share a higher industry regional agglomeration tendency and present a more obvious enterprise agglomeration in industry trend, consumer services, especially social services which are regulated by the government, as is known to all, a monopoly market is hard to form under this circumstance, therefore, the levels of clustering in both sides are undoubtedly low. Test of significance shows that the phenomenon of China's service industry clustering is statistically significant. Moreover, the differences in degrees of various service industries'concentration are also significant. It can be concluded from the panel data model that changes in geographic concentration of service industry stems from a combination of the mean reversion and the randomness.
(3)Based on the analysis of the evolution of the modern service industry agglomeration, combining Symbiotic theory and economic evolution theory, the paper has built a modern service industries agglomeration Logistic model to analyze the symbiotic relationship between modern service enterprise clustering, clustering and evolution mechanism of growth factors, thus revealing the evolution of modern service industries agglomeration basic laws. Studies show that modern service industry agglomeration is similar to the biological species, has its birth, growth, maturity and decline process. Modern service industries agglomeration growth is non-linear, its growth constrained by the largest industry gathering N value and the concentration of growth in the size of the impact of a values. The evolution of modern service industries agglomeration are formed by profit-driven and ecological balance mechanism, which is positive and negative feedback mechanism together. Empirical analysis shows that the evolution of China's modern service industry agglomeration as a whole was a S-curve. China's modern service industries agglomeration mainly has three kinds of evolution path, that is, market-oriented, market and government-driven, government-led. For the evolution problem of China's modern service industry clustering exists, it should deepen the reform of institutional mechanisms for the modern service industry; expansion industrial chain, enhance the integrate ability of the resource elements; adhere to the principle of the Government has provided, through the mechanism of competition and promote the effective clustering of modern service industry.
(4)In the premise of considering the effect of space, the paper build a space panel data model to analyze the agglomeration formation mechanism of service industry, which are used for an empirical research of that of China across 28 provinces from year 1997 to2007.The conclusions show, not only modern service industry displays a strong spatial correlation, but also a strong rely-on-each-other relationship and a positive spillover effect is formed among provinces. Different factors in time, space, space-time dimensions of the role and influence are different. The technical differences play a significant role of promoting the agglomeration of service industry only in time period fixed effects, when it comes to spatial fixed effects and spatial-time fixed effects, it behaves a negative role. In the aspects of both space and time dimensions, there is a significant negative correlation between transaction costs and modern service industries agglomeration, which indicates that the decline of transaction costs in the agglomeration region is helpful to the modern service industry agglomeration. Knowledge spillover plays a strong role in promoting the development of modern service industries agglomeration. The estimated coefficients of government regulative are significantly positive, which indicates that the provincial governments' guidance and policy support has played an active role in promoting the development of modern service industries agglomeration in various regions, but in the view of spatial dimension, government intervention in industry is still need to be strengthened.
(5)On the basis of the concept of the concentrated competitiveness of the modern service industry, the paper used the structural equation model to establishment the modern service industry competitiveness evaluation model on macro-level, scientific evaluate the competitiveness of modern service industry in concentration and its regional differences in china; and then, building the competitiveness of the modern service industry clustering effect model to systematic analysis the mechanism among the concentrated competitiveness of the modern service industry, services competitiveness and the development of national economy in china. The conclusions show, from the mechanism of internal, the concentrated competitiveness of modern service industries mainly reflected in the market efficiency, innovation, environment and so on. The concentrated competitiveness of modern service industries is closely linked to its modify factors. From the effect of external, the concentrated competitiveness of modern service industries have a strong positive influence on Services Competitiveness and the development of national economy. From the perspective of time series analysis, the concentrated competitiveness of the modern service industry increased slowly as a whole from 2002 to 2007, but the concentrated competitiveness of the modern service industry is declining trend in certain areas of China, as Yunnan Province, Guizhou Province,Gansu Province and so on. From the perspective of spatial analysis, the concentrated competitiveness of the modern service industry present grade distribution across 28 provinces in China. First class and second class are widespread in eastern regions of China. Third class is almostly widespread in Middle West regions of china. They are low in all factors of the concentrated competitiveness of the modern service industry, and all rank in the last. This is due to the smaller size of the market in central and western regions, a low degree of openness, shortage of innovation resources, innovation system is not perfect, spatial structure and resources need improved.
本文结合服务经济学、经济地理学、空间经济学等相关理论,在对现代服务业集聚基本理论研究的基础上,结合现代服务业的特征,构建现代服务业集聚统计分析体系,即现代服务业集聚现象测度、集聚演化、集聚形成机理、集聚竞争力等统计模型体系,并结合我国实际进行应用研究。具体体现在以下五个方面：
第一,在系统梳理国内外学者对现代服务业集聚机制、集聚演化、集聚竞争力等相关研究成果的基础上,结合现代服务业的特征,对现代服务业集聚、集聚竞争优势及其形成机制等基本理论进行研究,从而建立现代服务业集聚统计模型及其应用的理论平台。研究表明,现代服务业集聚的本质是在某一领域,基于精细分工和专业化产业链在特定地域的集聚及其所形成的互动关系。现代服务业集聚竞争优势表现为成本优势、外部经济优势、创新优势、品牌优势等,这是集聚协作竞争机制、知识溢出机制、自我增强机制、协调整合机制等交互作用的结果。
第二,在系统梳理产业集聚测度方法的基础上,从静态和动态两个角度,构建现代服务业集聚现象的统计测度指标体系和动态面板计量模型,并对我国现代服务业集聚状况进行动态描述,从而把握现代服务业集聚变动的内在规律。研究表明,我国服务业总体集聚程度较低(γ系数均低于0.05),难以形成有效的集聚竞争力。分行业看,生产性服务业具有较高的区域集聚趋势和较明显的企业集聚趋势,消费性服务业中的大多数社会服务业受政府宏观主导,行业垄断市场难以形成,其区域集聚程度和行业内企业集聚程度都很低。显著性检验表明,我国服务业集聚现象具有统计显著性,各服务行业集聚差异程度显著。动态面板模型显示,服务业集聚水平变化是回复效应和随机效应共同作用的叠加。
第三,结合共生理论和经济演化论,构建现代服务业集聚演化的逻辑斯谛模型,分析现代服务业集聚增长影响因素、集聚企业共生关系、集聚演化机制等,从而揭示现代服务业集聚演化的基本规律。研究表明,现代服务业集聚类似于生物种群,有其孕育、成长、成熟以及衰退的过程。现代服务业集聚增长是非线性的,其增长不仅受制于产业集聚最大规模N值和集聚增长率α的大小影响,而且其受到集聚企业之间的共生关系影响。现代服务业集聚演化受到利益驱动和生态平衡所形成的正、负反馈机制的共同作用。我国现代服务业集聚演化符合Logistic模型。目前,我国现代服务业集聚主要存在市场主导型、市场和政府推动型、政府主导型等三种演化路径,针对我国现代服务业集聚演化中存在问题,应深化现代服务业体制机制改革；扩张产业链,提升要素资源的整合能力；坚持政府有为的原则,通过竞争机制,促进现代服务业有效集聚。
第四,在现代服务业集聚形成机理理论分析的基础上,纳入空间效应,构建了现代服务业集聚形成机理空间面板计量模型,检验现代服务业集聚影响因素的作用程度和作用方式。研究表明,我国现代服务业发展存在明显的空间相关性,各省域之间形成了较强的空间依赖作用和正的空间溢出效应。不同影响因素在时间、空间、时空维度的作用和影响各有不同。总的来说,技术差异在时间维度上对现代服务业集聚促进作用显著,在空间维度上并不显著；交易费用在空间和时空维度下与现代服务业集聚有显著的负相关性；规模经济在空间和时空效应下对现代服务业集聚促进作用显著；知识溢出和政府行为在时间、时空维度下都对现代服务业集聚促进作用显著。因此,在当前我国现代服务业集聚程度仍然偏低,集聚效应较小的情况下,应大力推进服务业技术创新,改善服务业技术效率；加强政府的扶持和规划指导作用,这是促进各地区现代服务业集聚发展的必然要求。
第五,在现代服务业集聚竞争力界定的基础上,借助结构方程模型,建立宏观层次的现代服务业集聚竞争力评价模型,科学评价我国现代服务业集聚竞争力及其区域差异；然后构建现代服务业集聚竞争力影响效应模型,对我国现代服务业集聚竞争力对服务业竞争力、经济发展水平的作用和机制进行系统分析,以探明现代服务业集聚竞争力的影响因素和作用路径。理论研究表明,从内部作用机制看,现代服务业集聚竞争力主要体现在市场效益、创新能力、集聚环境等三个方面。从外部影响效应看,现代服务业集聚竞争力对服务业竞争力和经济发展水平有很强的正向影响关系。实证研究表明,我国2002-2007年各地区现代服务业集聚竞争力整体上升缓慢,部分地区如云南、贵州、甘肃等省市在2002-2007年间整体有下滑趋势。从空间分析来看,我国28个地区现代服务业集聚竞争力呈等级分布,东部地区现代服务业集聚各要素竞争力均要高于中西部地区。因此,我国各地区应放宽市场准入,重视人才引进,发挥政府在现代服务业集聚环境优化中的作用,积极培育集聚竞争力各要素条件,整体提升现代服务业集聚竞争力。
So far, a majority of studies about agglomeration is in terms of manufacturing, rather than service industry. When the "industrial economics" turns to the "services economics" all over the world, the service industry developed rapidly. The trend of agglomeration in the spatial location is strengthened. Agglomeration development exerts a greater influence on the competitiveness of services. Some scholars have begun to pay close attention to the studies about the agglomeration of modern services, but the methods measured statistically, which study the clustering phenomenon about modern services agglomeration, and the measure models about modern services agglomeration are not valued by many scholars. What's more, the literatures, which make use of measure methods to study modern services agglomeration, are relatively thin and unsystematic. The studies about demonstration of services are still unsubstantial because the outputs about services are hard to be measured and the regulations related to statistics are hysteretic. Foreign theories about collection of services are mostly built on basis of experience of developed countries and areas in west. The paper uses techniques of econometrics to study the agglomeration phenomenon of modern services. It is play an important role in theory for seeking the statistical models about explore the inherent principle about the collection of modern services and conduction mechanism.
The paper use the relative theories about services economics, economic geography and spatial economics, based on the theory research of modern services agglomeration, combine the characters of modern services, using techniques of econometrics to structure the analytical system of modern services agglomeration, systematically study numerous problems about the modern services agglomeration in China, such as the clustering evolution, agglomeration features, agglomeration formation, competitiveness agglomeration and so on. The content Embodied in the following five areas:
(1) On the basis of research results of modern service industries agglomeration formation mechanism, clustering evolution, clustering and competitiveness at home and abroad, combined with the characteristics of modern service industry, the paper had be concentrated on the basic theory research of the nature of competitive advantage and the formation mechanism of modern service industries agglomeration, thus establishing the modern service industry gathering statistical model theory and its applications platform. Research shows that the essence of modern service industries is concentrated in certain areas, based on precise division of labor and specialization in a specific geographic chain formed by the accumulation of their interaction. The performance of modern service industries agglomeration has competitive advantage of cost advantage, external economic advantage, innovation, brand and so on. These competitive advantages are coordinated and integrated the results of the collaborative competition mechanism, knowledge spillover mechanism, self-reinforcing mechanism, coordinate and integration mechanism.
(2) In the basis of systematic criticism of several kind of industry agglomeration measurements, from two aspects which are static and dynamic, this paper build a measure model for the phenomenon of service sectors'clustering, including a indices system and a dynamic panel model as well, to carry out an empirical analysis about the spatial agglomeration characteristics and the industry mobility of China's services from year 2003 to 2007.The conclusions show, According to the measurement of indices system of services'agglomeration, the average service sectors indicates a low degree of concentration, almost all of theγcoefficients are smaller than 0.05.In the view of industry, producer services share a higher industry regional agglomeration tendency and present a more obvious enterprise agglomeration in industry trend, consumer services, especially social services which are regulated by the government, as is known to all, a monopoly market is hard to form under this circumstance, therefore, the levels of clustering in both sides are undoubtedly low. Test of significance shows that the phenomenon of China's service industry clustering is statistically significant. Moreover, the differences in degrees of various service industries'concentration are also significant. It can be concluded from the panel data model that changes in geographic concentration of service industry stems from a combination of the mean reversion and the randomness.
(3)Based on the analysis of the evolution of the modern service industry agglomeration, combining Symbiotic theory and economic evolution theory, the paper has built a modern service industries agglomeration Logistic model to analyze the symbiotic relationship between modern service enterprise clustering, clustering and evolution mechanism of growth factors, thus revealing the evolution of modern service industries agglomeration basic laws. Studies show that modern service industry agglomeration is similar to the biological species, has its birth, growth, maturity and decline process. Modern service industries agglomeration growth is non-linear, its growth constrained by the largest industry gathering N value and the concentration of growth in the size of the impact of a values. The evolution of modern service industries agglomeration are formed by profit-driven and ecological balance mechanism, which is positive and negative feedback mechanism together. Empirical analysis shows that the evolution of China's modern service industry agglomeration as a whole was a S-curve. China's modern service industries agglomeration mainly has three kinds of evolution path, that is, market-oriented, market and government-driven, government-led. For the evolution problem of China's modern service industry clustering exists, it should deepen the reform of institutional mechanisms for the modern service industry; expansion industrial chain, enhance the integrate ability of the resource elements; adhere to the principle of the Government has provided, through the mechanism of competition and promote the effective clustering of modern service industry.
(4)In the premise of considering the effect of space, the paper build a space panel data model to analyze the agglomeration formation mechanism of service industry, which are used for an empirical research of that of China across 28 provinces from year 1997 to2007.The conclusions show, not only modern service industry displays a strong spatial correlation, but also a strong rely-on-each-other relationship and a positive spillover effect is formed among provinces. Different factors in time, space, space-time dimensions of the role and influence are different. The technical differences play a significant role of promoting the agglomeration of service industry only in time period fixed effects, when it comes to spatial fixed effects and spatial-time fixed effects, it behaves a negative role. In the aspects of both space and time dimensions, there is a significant negative correlation between transaction costs and modern service industries agglomeration, which indicates that the decline of transaction costs in the agglomeration region is helpful to the modern service industry agglomeration. Knowledge spillover plays a strong role in promoting the development of modern service industries agglomeration. The estimated coefficients of government regulative are significantly positive, which indicates that the provincial governments' guidance and policy support has played an active role in promoting the development of modern service industries agglomeration in various regions, but in the view of spatial dimension, government intervention in industry is still need to be strengthened.
(5)On the basis of the concept of the concentrated competitiveness of the modern service industry, the paper used the structural equation model to establishment the modern service industry competitiveness evaluation model on macro-level, scientific evaluate the competitiveness of modern service industry in concentration and its regional differences in china; and then, building the competitiveness of the modern service industry clustering effect model to systematic analysis the mechanism among the concentrated competitiveness of the modern service industry, services competitiveness and the development of national economy in china. The conclusions show, from the mechanism of internal, the concentrated competitiveness of modern service industries mainly reflected in the market efficiency, innovation, environment and so on. The concentrated competitiveness of modern service industries is closely linked to its modify factors. From the effect of external, the concentrated competitiveness of modern service industries have a strong positive influence on Services Competitiveness and the development of national economy. From the perspective of time series analysis, the concentrated competitiveness of the modern service industry increased slowly as a whole from 2002 to 2007, but the concentrated competitiveness of the modern service industry is declining trend in certain areas of China, as Yunnan Province, Guizhou Province,Gansu Province and so on. From the perspective of spatial analysis, the concentrated competitiveness of the modern service industry present grade distribution across 28 provinces in China. First class and second class are widespread in eastern regions of China. Third class is almostly widespread in Middle West regions of china. They are low in all factors of the concentrated competitiveness of the modern service industry, and all rank in the last. This is due to the smaller size of the market in central and western regions, a low degree of openness, shortage of innovation resources, innovation system is not perfect, spatial structure and resources need improved.
引文
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