基于文本挖掘的企业危机预警研究
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摘要
当今时代,企业竞争环境日益复杂,企业面临危机日益增多,企业危机预警对企业的重要性愈发凸显。同时,随着互联网和信息技术的发展,文本信息资源不断增多、内容不断丰富,成为了企业不可或缺的有效预警资源。近年来,文本挖掘的研究受到国内外学者关注,并取得了一定的研究成果。本文通过研究危机基本理论、预警基本理论和文本挖掘的基本方法,把文本挖掘技术和企业预警理论相结合,参照信息分析预警的一般流程,构建了基于文本挖掘的企业预警机制,并对预警机制工作流程及其方法进行细化探讨。然后运用本文构建的预警机制进行实证研究,为伊利公司构建了以竞争对手蒙牛为警源,以蒙牛官方网站为监测信息源的企业预警机制。然后选取2010年6月至11月蒙牛官网信息为样本进行模拟预警,成功的对蒙牛整合君乐宝事件进行了预警。
首先,本文对基本理论进行了研究,分别探讨了企业危机管理理论、企业危机预警理论及文本挖掘基本方法。企业危机管理理论主要从企业危机的特点、危机来源及管理三个方面进行阐述；危机预警理论则从预警体系的构建及功能、预警指标体系、预警方法进行了阐述；文本挖掘理论部分主要探讨了文本挖掘的基本方法。
在文章第3部分,本研究结合企业危机理论、危机预警理论及文本挖掘方法,参照信息分析预警的一般流程,为企业构建了一套便于指导实施的企业预警机制。讨论了预警机制工作流程的8个部分,包括企业预警需求的制定及警源选择、监测信息源的选取、数据采集策略的制定、数据处理方法的制定、文本挖掘策略的制定、预警方法选取及报警规则的制定、警报分析及预警报告、预警反馈。
在文章第4部分,本研究运用本文构建的预警机制进行实证研究,为伊利公司构建了以竞争对手蒙牛为警源,以蒙牛官方网站为监测信息源的企业预警机制。并选取2010年6月至11月蒙牛官网信息为样本进行模拟预警,成功识别出蒙牛整合君乐宝事件这一危机警兆,并通过文本挖掘对警情进行了分析,最终生成预警报告。
最后,对本文的研究进行了总结,指出了本文研究的不足和本领域研究的展望,指出文本挖掘预警必将在以后的企业发展中发展更大的作用。
As competitive environment going complex, the early warning is becoming more important to enterprises. Meanwhile, with the development of the Internet and information technology, text information resources have become effective early warning resources. In this paper, combining the basic theory of crisis and early warning and basic methods of text mining, create process of early warning based on text mining mechanism and workflow refinement of its methods. An early warning system built using this empirical research, which for the Yili as a warning to rivals Mengniu source to the official website Mengniu enterprise information source for monitoring early-warning mechanism. And select the June 2010 to November Mengniu's official website samples of early warning information, successful incident early warning of integration of Junlebao.
Firstly, this paper discusses the theory of crisis management, corporate crisis early warning theory and basic methods of text mining. Part 3 in the article, this study combined with business crisis theory, crisis theory and the warning text mining methods, with reference to the general process of information analysis and early warning for enterprises to build a set of guiding the implementation of the enterprise to facilitate early warning mechanism, and discussed the eight parts of the workflow. Part 4 in the article, An early warning system built using this empirical research, which for the Yili as a warning to rivals Mengniu source to the official website Mengniu enterprise information source for monitoring early-warning mechanism. And select the June 2010 to November Mengniu's official website samples of early warning information, successful incident early warning of integration of Mengniu Junlebao. Finally, summarize this study and pointed out the deficiencies of this study and the outlook for research in the field.
首先,本文对基本理论进行了研究,分别探讨了企业危机管理理论、企业危机预警理论及文本挖掘基本方法。企业危机管理理论主要从企业危机的特点、危机来源及管理三个方面进行阐述；危机预警理论则从预警体系的构建及功能、预警指标体系、预警方法进行了阐述；文本挖掘理论部分主要探讨了文本挖掘的基本方法。
在文章第3部分,本研究结合企业危机理论、危机预警理论及文本挖掘方法,参照信息分析预警的一般流程,为企业构建了一套便于指导实施的企业预警机制。讨论了预警机制工作流程的8个部分,包括企业预警需求的制定及警源选择、监测信息源的选取、数据采集策略的制定、数据处理方法的制定、文本挖掘策略的制定、预警方法选取及报警规则的制定、警报分析及预警报告、预警反馈。
在文章第4部分,本研究运用本文构建的预警机制进行实证研究,为伊利公司构建了以竞争对手蒙牛为警源,以蒙牛官方网站为监测信息源的企业预警机制。并选取2010年6月至11月蒙牛官网信息为样本进行模拟预警,成功识别出蒙牛整合君乐宝事件这一危机警兆,并通过文本挖掘对警情进行了分析,最终生成预警报告。
最后,对本文的研究进行了总结,指出了本文研究的不足和本领域研究的展望,指出文本挖掘预警必将在以后的企业发展中发展更大的作用。
As competitive environment going complex, the early warning is becoming more important to enterprises. Meanwhile, with the development of the Internet and information technology, text information resources have become effective early warning resources. In this paper, combining the basic theory of crisis and early warning and basic methods of text mining, create process of early warning based on text mining mechanism and workflow refinement of its methods. An early warning system built using this empirical research, which for the Yili as a warning to rivals Mengniu source to the official website Mengniu enterprise information source for monitoring early-warning mechanism. And select the June 2010 to November Mengniu's official website samples of early warning information, successful incident early warning of integration of Junlebao.
Firstly, this paper discusses the theory of crisis management, corporate crisis early warning theory and basic methods of text mining. Part 3 in the article, this study combined with business crisis theory, crisis theory and the warning text mining methods, with reference to the general process of information analysis and early warning for enterprises to build a set of guiding the implementation of the enterprise to facilitate early warning mechanism, and discussed the eight parts of the workflow. Part 4 in the article, An early warning system built using this empirical research, which for the Yili as a warning to rivals Mengniu source to the official website Mengniu enterprise information source for monitoring early-warning mechanism. And select the June 2010 to November Mengniu's official website samples of early warning information, successful incident early warning of integration of Mengniu Junlebao. Finally, summarize this study and pointed out the deficiencies of this study and the outlook for research in the field.
引文
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