基于GIS技术的区域滑坡分形特征分析与危险性评价
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摘要
滑坡是一种常见的地质灾害,具有区域性、群发性、多发性、危害性极大的特点,常常毁坏工矿、城镇、村庄、农田及交通通讯设施,甚至阻断江河或毁坏已建的水利工程,造成重大的人员伤亡和财产损失。我国是一个多山区的国家,滑坡地质灾害广泛存在且发生频繁。因此滑坡灾害问题与人们的生存环境息息相关,提高滑坡灾害防治研究水平,对工程安全、环境保护和减灾防灾具有重要的理论和工程实际意义。
三峡库区地形地质条件复杂,年降雨量大且集中,滑坡发生频率高,灾情严重,具有区域性、群发性和多发性特点。尤其是20世纪80年代以来,大规模滑坡进入活跃期,造成人民生命财产的重大损失。三峡库区地质灾害不仅危及居民的生命财产安全,而且破坏房屋、道路、供水供电管网、桥涵、码头等各类建筑物,毁坏耕地和植被,影响各项工程建设。有的滑坡快速入江造成涌浪,危及附近的船只和村镇,堵塞航道。由此可见,以滑坡为主的地质灾害已成为影响三峡水库移民工程、航道与生态环境安全的重大问题。因此,很有必要深入开展三峡库区滑坡危险性评价研究工作,最大限度地减少库区滑坡灾害造成的损失,保护人民生命财产、航运及移民工程安全,保障水库正常运行,更好地促进社会经济可持续发展。
滑坡的形成和活动过程存在着复杂的非线性的相互作用。研究滑坡动态演化的非线性特征,传统的理论和方法受到极大限制。近年来,分形理论的发展为研究自然界的复杂现象带来了新的方法,特别是在地震研究领域得到了较快的发展,但在滑坡地质灾害研究领域中的应用才刚刚起步。在滑坡分形研究方面还存在以下问题需要进一步研究解决：
(1)目前的研究主要集中于滑坡边界轨迹及空间分布的分形特征方面,对于滑坡的形成条件和诱发因素(如地形地貌、水系、断裂构造等)的分形特征方面的研究则明显不足,而对滑坡的形成条件和诱发因素的研究将有助于更好地揭示滑坡的形成条件和演化规律,从而更好地指导防灾减灾工作。
(2)目前的研究还基本上局限于对滑坡分形特征的简单描述,缺乏对滑坡分形特征与滑坡稳定性之间关系的深入研究,滑坡分形特征方面的研究结果还不能有效地应用于区域滑坡危险性评价研究工作。
区域滑坡灾害危险性评价一直是国际上倡导和推广的减灾防灾有效途径之一,近年来成为滑坡灾害研究的热点之一。但是,由于滑坡的孕育发生受控于多种自然与人为因素的影响,确定这些因素与滑坡危险性之间的因果关系比较复杂,且单一的定量化评价方法的局限性直接影响到评价结果的可靠性和准确性,从而限制了它们在区域滑坡危险性分析方面进一步的推广应用。因此,科学、有效地实现区域滑坡危险性分析的关键技术和方法是目前滑坡研究的热点,也是难点之一,在区域滑坡危险性评价研究还存在以下两个主要问题需要进一步研究解决：
(1)区域滑坡危险性评价指标体系的确定方法。在区域滑坡危险性分析评价研究中,发现识别导致斜坡失稳、引起滑坡的因素是一项非常重要的基础性工作,合理选择评价指标对评价结果的准确性具有决定性控制作用。但是,目前采用的方法都没有很好地解决评价指标的定量选取问题,没有定量分析评价各影响因素优劣的指标和方法,只能靠评价者的经验选取,具有较大的主观随意性,相应地影响了区域滑坡危险性分析评价结果的客观正确性；同时,整个评价模型是否最优也无法检验。因此,如何客观定量地选取确定合理的评价指标体系,仍然是一个亟待解决的关键问题。
(2)区域滑坡危险性评价指标的权重取值。在区域滑坡危险性分析研究中,评价指标权重的确定也是非常重要的基础工作,它同样直接关系到区域滑坡危险性分析评价质量的好坏以及评价精度的高低。评价指标既有定量指标,也有定性指标,并且评价指标数量往往较大,这就给评价指标的权重的确定带来了很大困难。因此,滑坡系统评价指标权重的确定也一直是困扰区域滑坡危险性分析研究的一个难题。
本文的主要研究成果和获得的主要研究结论有以下几个方面：
(1)研究了滑坡体的几何形态和空问分布等方面的分形特征,研究了地形地貌、水系及断裂构造等滑坡影响因素的分形特征。
(2)利用变维分形方法研究了滑坡分布与影响因素的关系。
利用变维分形方法研究了滑坡分布与影响因素的关系。研究表明,滑坡的空间分布具有变维分形的特征。滑坡的空间分布与坡度、地层、高程及河流缓冲区均呈二阶累计和分形分布,说明滑坡的空间分布与这四个影响因素的变维分形特征比较复杂,坡度、地层、高程及河流缓冲区这四个因素对于滑坡发育的影响程度较高。滑坡的空间分布与坡向呈一阶累计和分形分布,且其分维值较小,说明滑坡的空间分布与坡向因素的变维分形特征相对比较简单,坡向对于滑坡发育的影响较小。这从分形的角度揭示了滑坡发育分布与各影响因子之问的定量关系,为进一步进行区域滑坡危险性分析评价因子的选取提供了分形学依据。
(3)综合考虑岩石类型和构造(地层岩性、断裂构造)、地形地貌(坡度、坡向、高程、沟壑分布等)、水文地质条件(归一化植被指数)及破坏动力(河流缓冲区)等影响因素,并结合滑坡影响因素的分形特征(小流域地形地貌分维值),建立了研究区区域滑坡危险性评价指标体系。
(4)采用证据权法对研究区进行了区域滑坡危险性评价研究。
采用证据权法客观定量地分析评价了各种影响因子对滑坡发育的影响程度,并据此进行了区域滑坡危险性评价因子(证据因子)的选择及区域滑坡危险性定量评价。计算结果表明,研究区内比较重要的滑坡影响因素包括河流缓冲区、高程、岩性、断裂交汇部位缓冲区、沟壑分布及小流域地形地貌分维值等。
研究区内不同证据因子的权重值存在较大的差异,例如,地层和断裂交汇部位的权重值虽然较大,但是比河流缓冲区的权重值小。河流缓冲区的权重值最大,说明在研究区内河流侵蚀作用对滑坡的发育起最主要作用,这与研究区内滑坡主要沿长江两岸分布这一事实相吻合。高程对滑坡的发育也有一定的影响。坡向及植被的发育程度对滑坡的发育也有一定的影响,但影响相对较小。
同一种证据因子的权重值也会因其分级(分类)不同也存在较大的差异。例如,在不同地层中,三叠系下统嘉陵江组(Tjs)、三叠系中统巴东组(Tb)、侏罗系下统桐竹园组(Jt)、侏罗系中统聂家山组(Jn)及二叠系与石炭、泥盆、志留系的分界线取500m的缓冲区的权重值较大,这与宏观地质调查的研究结果是一致的。又如,计算结果表明,在其它条件相同的情况下,距离河流越近,河流对边坡的侵蚀作用就越明显,滑坡越发育,这与目前滑坡的分布规律是一致的。
采用证据权法对研究区进行了区域滑坡危险性评价研究。研究结果表明,在研究区内主要有三个区域发生滑坡的危险性较大。一个区域为泄滩-黄腊石沿长江一带,该区域有黄腊石滑坡、大坪滑坡和范家坪滑坡等重要滑坡。该段广泛发育有三叠系中统巴东组砂泥岩互层,软硬岩石之间的界面是地下水活动的场所,为滑坡发育提供了良好的物质基础。另外,地表平均坡度25-37°,也为滑坡发育提供了良好的地貌临空条件。另一个区域为香溪一带,该区域有香溪滑坡等重要滑坡,该地段为香溪和长江交汇处,断裂构造比较发育,且发育软硬相间的岩石,为滑坡发育提供了良好的物质基础。第三个区域为新滩-链子崖一带,在该区域有新滩滑坡、链子崖崩塌危岩体、野猫面滑坡及猴子岭滑坡等大型滑坡。滑坡直接受九湾溪、仙女山断裂的控制。
研究区区域滑坡危险性评价分析结果与现有滑坡的分布情况比较吻合,说明分析结果具有较好的精度和质量。研究结果表明,证据权法作为一种数据驱动方法,可以较好地避免区域滑坡危险性评价因子选择及权重赋值的主观性,因此具有较高的评价精度。
(5)运用逻辑回归法、模糊逻辑方法及模糊证据权法对研究区进行了区域滑坡危险性评价研究。分析结果与现有滑坡的分布情况比较吻合。采用几种不同的数学模型的分析结果都取得较好的应用效果,并可以相互补充和印证。
本文创新点主要体现在：
(1)采用多种分形方法,从滑坡体的几何形态、空间分布以及地形地貌、水系及断裂构造等滑坡影响因素等方面,系统研究了区域滑坡分形特征。
(2)利用变维分形方法研究了滑坡分布与影响因素的关系,从分形的角度揭示了滑坡发育分布与各影响因子之间的定量关系,为进一步建立区域滑坡危险性评价指标体系提供了分形学依据。
(3)综合考虑岩石类型和构造(地层岩性、断裂构造)、地形地貌(坡度、坡向、高程、沟壑分布等)、水文地质条件(归一化植被指数)及破坏动力(河流缓冲区)等影响因素,并结合滑坡影响因素的分形特征(小流域地形地貌分维值),建立了研究区区域滑坡危险性评价指标体系。
(4)分别运用数据驱动模型(逻辑回归法、证据权法)、知识驱动模型(模糊逻辑方法)及数据与知识驱动模型(模糊证据权法)对研究区进行了区域滑坡危险性评价研究。分析结果与现有滑坡的分布情况比较吻合。采用几种不同的数学模型的分析结果都取得较好的应用效果,并可以相互补充和印证,从而提高区域滑坡危险性评价的精度。
Landslide is a common geological disaster occurring regionally and frequently. It usually produces serious damages to factories, mines, cities and towns, villages, farmlands, transportation, communication, and even blocks rivers and destroys the water conservancy projects It occurred regionally and frequently in the mountainous areas of China. Therefore, it is of importance and significance to study the landslide so as to improve the landslide prevention and control, and to guarantee the engineering safety and the environmental protection.
Landslide is be prone to occur and to cause natural hazards in the Three Gorges reservoir region, where there have varied topographies, complicated geological structures, and heavy annual rainfall. Especially since 1980's, the landslides occur more frequently to cause serious damages to the local communities. The landslide hazards often destroy houses, road, hydraulic supply lines, power-supply systems, bridges, docks, factories, mines, cities and towns, villages, farmlands, and vegetations. Some landslides swell damages to boats and villages nearby and even block up the rivers. In this way, the landslide hazards are the important issue to influence the settlement project, shipping and ecological environment in the Three Gorges reservoir region. It is thus important to study the landslide susceptibility assessment in the area to reduce the landslide hazards, and to ensure the reservoir safety.
The landslide is a kind of complicated phenomenon with nonlinear inter-reaction. The traditional theories and methods are difficult to study the uncertainty characteristics of dynamic evolution of the landslide. Recently, the fractal theory has become a new method to study such complicated phenomenon as earthquake and landslide. However, there are still some key issues as below needed to further study.
(1) The previous studies mainly focused on the fractal characteristics of geometric shape and spatial distribution of the landslide, but the knowledge in occurring conditions and inducing factors (landform, drainage network, and fault, etc.) of landslide are still unclear. Such knowledge is quite important to help to indicate the occurring conditions and evolution regulation to prevent and control the landslide hazards.
(2) The previous studies are limited to simple description of the fractal characteristics of the landslide and have not obtained full understanding of the relationship between the fractal characteristics and the stability of the landslide. Their research results on the fractal characteristics of the landslide are unable to be applied to landslide susceptibility assessment effectively.
The landslide susceptibility assessment is one of the effective approaches applied worldwide to prevent and reduce the landslide disasters, and it becomes one of the hot spots in research on landslide in recent years. But the occurrence of the landslide is controlled by lots of natural and man-made factors, and the relationship between the factors and the stability of the landslide is quite complicated. And the limitation of a single assessment method influences directly the reliability and accuracy. So the key technology and method to assess the landslide susceptibility effectively is the hot spot and difficulty in landslide study. There are still some issues as below needed to further study.
(1) To determine the index system of landslide susceptibility assessment. It's quite important to identify and select the occurring factors of the landslide in landslide susceptibility assessment. But the previous methodology selects the assessing factors only with researcher's experience subjectively, without evaluating the assessing factors objectively and quantitatively, which makes the assessing results contain much more wrong conclusions. So it is a key issue needed to solve to determine the index system of landslide susceptibility assessment objectively and quantitatively.
(2) To determine the weights of the assessing factors of landslide susceptibility assessment. It is also important for the assessment results to determine the weight of the assessing factors of the landslide in landslide susceptibility assessment. There are lots of quantitative and qualitative assessing factors, which are difficult to deal with the weights of the assessing factors. So it is a difficulty needed to solve to determine the weights of the assessing factors of landslide susceptibility assessment.
The main study contents and conclusions in this dissertation are as follows:
(1) Detailed studies are on the fractal characteristics of geometric shape and spatial distribution of the landslide, the occurring conditions and inducing factors as landform, drainage network and fault.
(2) The relationship between the distribution of the landslides with the theory of the variable dimension fractal is studied.
The study results indicate that the distribution of the landslides and slope, lithology and elevation and the cumulative distance from the river are in second-order cumulative total fractal distribution, and that the distribution of the landslides and aspect is in first-order cumulative total fractal distribution. The results show that slope, lithology and elevation and the cumulative distance from the river are more important to contribute to the occurrence of landslides than aspect, which provides the fractal basis to establish the index system of landslide susceptibility assessment.
(3) The index system of landslide susceptibility assessment in the study area involves rock types and structure (lithology and fault), valley slope geometry and landform (aspect, slope, elevation and drainage network), hydrogeological conditions (Normal Different Vegetation Index, NDVI), dynamical factors (distance to river) and the fractal characteristics of the inducing factors (the fractal dimension of the small watershed).
(4) Landslide susceptibility assessment based on weights of evidence modeling was involved.
The weights of evidence model has been used for evaluating the contribution of the inducing factors to the occurrence of landslide to determine the assessing factors, and for landslide susceptibility assessment. According to the calculated weight values, the most important factors determining susceptibility are distance from river, elevation, lithology, distance from faults interface, drainage network and the fractal dimension of the small watershed. However, it is the combination of two or more classes of factors, which has the strongest influence on susceptibility and is not one single factor alone.
The weights of evidence vary widely with different factors of evidence. The weights of evidence for lithology and for cumulative distance from faults interface are relatively very large, but they are smaller than those for cumulative distance from the Yangtze River. The weights of evidence for cumulative distance from the Yangtze River are the largest, which indicates that the river erosion is the most important factor controlling the occurrence of landslides in the study area, which is coincident with the actual fact that the landslides in the study area are mostly located along the banks of the Yangtze river. The calculated results show that the elevation is also an important factor controlling the occurrence of landslides in the study area. The calculated results show that the aspect and NDVI have certain influences on the occurrence of landslides, but the influence is relatively very small.
There have differences in the weights of evidence among the different classes of the same factors of evidence. For example, the calculated results show that the weights of evidence for lithology of the Jialingjiang Formation (Tjs) of lower Triassic, the Badong Formation (Tb) of middle Triassic, the Tongzhuyuan Formation (Jt) of lower Jurassic, the Niejiashan Formation (Jn) of middle Jurassic and the 500m distance from interface between Permian and Carboniferous, Devonian and Silurian periods are much higher than any other lithology, which is coincident with the actual fact that the landslides are mostly located in the above lithology in the study area. The calculated results indicate that the river erosion becomes more and more violent and the slope becomes more and more unstable while the distance from the river is nearer and nearer, which is coincident with the occurrence of the already known landslides.
According to the landslide hazards zonation mapping, there are three potentially dangerous areas with landslides in the study area. The first one is the region between Xietan and Huanglashi, where there exist such famous landslides as Huanglashi landslide, Fanjiaping landslide and Daping landslides. The second one is the region around Xiangxi town with the important Xiangxi landslides. And the third area is located in the region from Xintan to Lianzhiya with the famous Xintan landslide and Lianzhiya landslip. The study result is very coincident with the occurrence of the known landslides in the study area, which shows that the methodology is very useful and accurate and that the approach is appropriate for zonation of the landslide hazards.
The study results are quite coincident with the occurrences of the known landslides, which show that the results are very accurate and have good quality. As a data-driven model, the weights of evidence model could help choose the main factors and calculate the weight values well and truly, avoiding man-made subjectivity. So the methodology is very useful and accurate and the approach is appropriate for zonation of the landslide hazards.
(5) Logistic regression, fuzzy logic and fuzzy weights of evidence are used for landslide susceptibility assessment in the study area. The research results are very coincident with the occurrences of the known landslides.
The main innovations of this thesis are as follows:
(1) The fractal characteristics of geometric shape and spatial distribution of the landslide, the occurring conditions and inducing factors as landform, drainage network and fault are integratively studied.
(2) The theory of the variable dimension fractal was used for evaluating the relationship between the inducing factors and the occurrence of the landslide to provide the fractal basis to establish the index system of landslide susceptibility assessment.
(3) The index system of landslide susceptibility assessment in the study area involves rock types and structure (lithology, fault), valley slope geometry and landform(aspect, slope, elevation and drainage network), hydrogeological conditions(NDVI), dynamical factors(distance to river) and the fractal characteristics of the inducing factors(the fractal dimension of the small watershed).
(4) The data-driven model (logistic regression and weights of evidence), the knowledge-driven model (fuzzy logic) and data-knowledge-driven model (fuzzy weights of evidence) were applied for landslide susceptibility assessment in the study area. The research results are very coincident with the occurrences of the known landslides.
三峡库区地形地质条件复杂,年降雨量大且集中,滑坡发生频率高,灾情严重,具有区域性、群发性和多发性特点。尤其是20世纪80年代以来,大规模滑坡进入活跃期,造成人民生命财产的重大损失。三峡库区地质灾害不仅危及居民的生命财产安全,而且破坏房屋、道路、供水供电管网、桥涵、码头等各类建筑物,毁坏耕地和植被,影响各项工程建设。有的滑坡快速入江造成涌浪,危及附近的船只和村镇,堵塞航道。由此可见,以滑坡为主的地质灾害已成为影响三峡水库移民工程、航道与生态环境安全的重大问题。因此,很有必要深入开展三峡库区滑坡危险性评价研究工作,最大限度地减少库区滑坡灾害造成的损失,保护人民生命财产、航运及移民工程安全,保障水库正常运行,更好地促进社会经济可持续发展。
滑坡的形成和活动过程存在着复杂的非线性的相互作用。研究滑坡动态演化的非线性特征,传统的理论和方法受到极大限制。近年来,分形理论的发展为研究自然界的复杂现象带来了新的方法,特别是在地震研究领域得到了较快的发展,但在滑坡地质灾害研究领域中的应用才刚刚起步。在滑坡分形研究方面还存在以下问题需要进一步研究解决：
(1)目前的研究主要集中于滑坡边界轨迹及空间分布的分形特征方面,对于滑坡的形成条件和诱发因素(如地形地貌、水系、断裂构造等)的分形特征方面的研究则明显不足,而对滑坡的形成条件和诱发因素的研究将有助于更好地揭示滑坡的形成条件和演化规律,从而更好地指导防灾减灾工作。
(2)目前的研究还基本上局限于对滑坡分形特征的简单描述,缺乏对滑坡分形特征与滑坡稳定性之间关系的深入研究,滑坡分形特征方面的研究结果还不能有效地应用于区域滑坡危险性评价研究工作。
区域滑坡灾害危险性评价一直是国际上倡导和推广的减灾防灾有效途径之一,近年来成为滑坡灾害研究的热点之一。但是,由于滑坡的孕育发生受控于多种自然与人为因素的影响,确定这些因素与滑坡危险性之间的因果关系比较复杂,且单一的定量化评价方法的局限性直接影响到评价结果的可靠性和准确性,从而限制了它们在区域滑坡危险性分析方面进一步的推广应用。因此,科学、有效地实现区域滑坡危险性分析的关键技术和方法是目前滑坡研究的热点,也是难点之一,在区域滑坡危险性评价研究还存在以下两个主要问题需要进一步研究解决：
(1)区域滑坡危险性评价指标体系的确定方法。在区域滑坡危险性分析评价研究中,发现识别导致斜坡失稳、引起滑坡的因素是一项非常重要的基础性工作,合理选择评价指标对评价结果的准确性具有决定性控制作用。但是,目前采用的方法都没有很好地解决评价指标的定量选取问题,没有定量分析评价各影响因素优劣的指标和方法,只能靠评价者的经验选取,具有较大的主观随意性,相应地影响了区域滑坡危险性分析评价结果的客观正确性；同时,整个评价模型是否最优也无法检验。因此,如何客观定量地选取确定合理的评价指标体系,仍然是一个亟待解决的关键问题。
(2)区域滑坡危险性评价指标的权重取值。在区域滑坡危险性分析研究中,评价指标权重的确定也是非常重要的基础工作,它同样直接关系到区域滑坡危险性分析评价质量的好坏以及评价精度的高低。评价指标既有定量指标,也有定性指标,并且评价指标数量往往较大,这就给评价指标的权重的确定带来了很大困难。因此,滑坡系统评价指标权重的确定也一直是困扰区域滑坡危险性分析研究的一个难题。
本文的主要研究成果和获得的主要研究结论有以下几个方面：
(1)研究了滑坡体的几何形态和空问分布等方面的分形特征,研究了地形地貌、水系及断裂构造等滑坡影响因素的分形特征。
(2)利用变维分形方法研究了滑坡分布与影响因素的关系。
利用变维分形方法研究了滑坡分布与影响因素的关系。研究表明,滑坡的空间分布具有变维分形的特征。滑坡的空间分布与坡度、地层、高程及河流缓冲区均呈二阶累计和分形分布,说明滑坡的空间分布与这四个影响因素的变维分形特征比较复杂,坡度、地层、高程及河流缓冲区这四个因素对于滑坡发育的影响程度较高。滑坡的空间分布与坡向呈一阶累计和分形分布,且其分维值较小,说明滑坡的空间分布与坡向因素的变维分形特征相对比较简单,坡向对于滑坡发育的影响较小。这从分形的角度揭示了滑坡发育分布与各影响因子之问的定量关系,为进一步进行区域滑坡危险性分析评价因子的选取提供了分形学依据。
(3)综合考虑岩石类型和构造(地层岩性、断裂构造)、地形地貌(坡度、坡向、高程、沟壑分布等)、水文地质条件(归一化植被指数)及破坏动力(河流缓冲区)等影响因素,并结合滑坡影响因素的分形特征(小流域地形地貌分维值),建立了研究区区域滑坡危险性评价指标体系。
(4)采用证据权法对研究区进行了区域滑坡危险性评价研究。
采用证据权法客观定量地分析评价了各种影响因子对滑坡发育的影响程度,并据此进行了区域滑坡危险性评价因子(证据因子)的选择及区域滑坡危险性定量评价。计算结果表明,研究区内比较重要的滑坡影响因素包括河流缓冲区、高程、岩性、断裂交汇部位缓冲区、沟壑分布及小流域地形地貌分维值等。
研究区内不同证据因子的权重值存在较大的差异,例如,地层和断裂交汇部位的权重值虽然较大,但是比河流缓冲区的权重值小。河流缓冲区的权重值最大,说明在研究区内河流侵蚀作用对滑坡的发育起最主要作用,这与研究区内滑坡主要沿长江两岸分布这一事实相吻合。高程对滑坡的发育也有一定的影响。坡向及植被的发育程度对滑坡的发育也有一定的影响,但影响相对较小。
同一种证据因子的权重值也会因其分级(分类)不同也存在较大的差异。例如,在不同地层中,三叠系下统嘉陵江组(Tjs)、三叠系中统巴东组(Tb)、侏罗系下统桐竹园组(Jt)、侏罗系中统聂家山组(Jn)及二叠系与石炭、泥盆、志留系的分界线取500m的缓冲区的权重值较大,这与宏观地质调查的研究结果是一致的。又如,计算结果表明,在其它条件相同的情况下,距离河流越近,河流对边坡的侵蚀作用就越明显,滑坡越发育,这与目前滑坡的分布规律是一致的。
采用证据权法对研究区进行了区域滑坡危险性评价研究。研究结果表明,在研究区内主要有三个区域发生滑坡的危险性较大。一个区域为泄滩-黄腊石沿长江一带,该区域有黄腊石滑坡、大坪滑坡和范家坪滑坡等重要滑坡。该段广泛发育有三叠系中统巴东组砂泥岩互层,软硬岩石之间的界面是地下水活动的场所,为滑坡发育提供了良好的物质基础。另外,地表平均坡度25-37°,也为滑坡发育提供了良好的地貌临空条件。另一个区域为香溪一带,该区域有香溪滑坡等重要滑坡,该地段为香溪和长江交汇处,断裂构造比较发育,且发育软硬相间的岩石,为滑坡发育提供了良好的物质基础。第三个区域为新滩-链子崖一带,在该区域有新滩滑坡、链子崖崩塌危岩体、野猫面滑坡及猴子岭滑坡等大型滑坡。滑坡直接受九湾溪、仙女山断裂的控制。
研究区区域滑坡危险性评价分析结果与现有滑坡的分布情况比较吻合,说明分析结果具有较好的精度和质量。研究结果表明,证据权法作为一种数据驱动方法,可以较好地避免区域滑坡危险性评价因子选择及权重赋值的主观性,因此具有较高的评价精度。
(5)运用逻辑回归法、模糊逻辑方法及模糊证据权法对研究区进行了区域滑坡危险性评价研究。分析结果与现有滑坡的分布情况比较吻合。采用几种不同的数学模型的分析结果都取得较好的应用效果,并可以相互补充和印证。
本文创新点主要体现在：
(1)采用多种分形方法,从滑坡体的几何形态、空间分布以及地形地貌、水系及断裂构造等滑坡影响因素等方面,系统研究了区域滑坡分形特征。
(2)利用变维分形方法研究了滑坡分布与影响因素的关系,从分形的角度揭示了滑坡发育分布与各影响因子之间的定量关系,为进一步建立区域滑坡危险性评价指标体系提供了分形学依据。
(3)综合考虑岩石类型和构造(地层岩性、断裂构造)、地形地貌(坡度、坡向、高程、沟壑分布等)、水文地质条件(归一化植被指数)及破坏动力(河流缓冲区)等影响因素,并结合滑坡影响因素的分形特征(小流域地形地貌分维值),建立了研究区区域滑坡危险性评价指标体系。
(4)分别运用数据驱动模型(逻辑回归法、证据权法)、知识驱动模型(模糊逻辑方法)及数据与知识驱动模型(模糊证据权法)对研究区进行了区域滑坡危险性评价研究。分析结果与现有滑坡的分布情况比较吻合。采用几种不同的数学模型的分析结果都取得较好的应用效果,并可以相互补充和印证,从而提高区域滑坡危险性评价的精度。
Landslide is a common geological disaster occurring regionally and frequently. It usually produces serious damages to factories, mines, cities and towns, villages, farmlands, transportation, communication, and even blocks rivers and destroys the water conservancy projects It occurred regionally and frequently in the mountainous areas of China. Therefore, it is of importance and significance to study the landslide so as to improve the landslide prevention and control, and to guarantee the engineering safety and the environmental protection.
Landslide is be prone to occur and to cause natural hazards in the Three Gorges reservoir region, where there have varied topographies, complicated geological structures, and heavy annual rainfall. Especially since 1980's, the landslides occur more frequently to cause serious damages to the local communities. The landslide hazards often destroy houses, road, hydraulic supply lines, power-supply systems, bridges, docks, factories, mines, cities and towns, villages, farmlands, and vegetations. Some landslides swell damages to boats and villages nearby and even block up the rivers. In this way, the landslide hazards are the important issue to influence the settlement project, shipping and ecological environment in the Three Gorges reservoir region. It is thus important to study the landslide susceptibility assessment in the area to reduce the landslide hazards, and to ensure the reservoir safety.
The landslide is a kind of complicated phenomenon with nonlinear inter-reaction. The traditional theories and methods are difficult to study the uncertainty characteristics of dynamic evolution of the landslide. Recently, the fractal theory has become a new method to study such complicated phenomenon as earthquake and landslide. However, there are still some key issues as below needed to further study.
(1) The previous studies mainly focused on the fractal characteristics of geometric shape and spatial distribution of the landslide, but the knowledge in occurring conditions and inducing factors (landform, drainage network, and fault, etc.) of landslide are still unclear. Such knowledge is quite important to help to indicate the occurring conditions and evolution regulation to prevent and control the landslide hazards.
(2) The previous studies are limited to simple description of the fractal characteristics of the landslide and have not obtained full understanding of the relationship between the fractal characteristics and the stability of the landslide. Their research results on the fractal characteristics of the landslide are unable to be applied to landslide susceptibility assessment effectively.
The landslide susceptibility assessment is one of the effective approaches applied worldwide to prevent and reduce the landslide disasters, and it becomes one of the hot spots in research on landslide in recent years. But the occurrence of the landslide is controlled by lots of natural and man-made factors, and the relationship between the factors and the stability of the landslide is quite complicated. And the limitation of a single assessment method influences directly the reliability and accuracy. So the key technology and method to assess the landslide susceptibility effectively is the hot spot and difficulty in landslide study. There are still some issues as below needed to further study.
(1) To determine the index system of landslide susceptibility assessment. It's quite important to identify and select the occurring factors of the landslide in landslide susceptibility assessment. But the previous methodology selects the assessing factors only with researcher's experience subjectively, without evaluating the assessing factors objectively and quantitatively, which makes the assessing results contain much more wrong conclusions. So it is a key issue needed to solve to determine the index system of landslide susceptibility assessment objectively and quantitatively.
(2) To determine the weights of the assessing factors of landslide susceptibility assessment. It is also important for the assessment results to determine the weight of the assessing factors of the landslide in landslide susceptibility assessment. There are lots of quantitative and qualitative assessing factors, which are difficult to deal with the weights of the assessing factors. So it is a difficulty needed to solve to determine the weights of the assessing factors of landslide susceptibility assessment.
The main study contents and conclusions in this dissertation are as follows:
(1) Detailed studies are on the fractal characteristics of geometric shape and spatial distribution of the landslide, the occurring conditions and inducing factors as landform, drainage network and fault.
(2) The relationship between the distribution of the landslides with the theory of the variable dimension fractal is studied.
The study results indicate that the distribution of the landslides and slope, lithology and elevation and the cumulative distance from the river are in second-order cumulative total fractal distribution, and that the distribution of the landslides and aspect is in first-order cumulative total fractal distribution. The results show that slope, lithology and elevation and the cumulative distance from the river are more important to contribute to the occurrence of landslides than aspect, which provides the fractal basis to establish the index system of landslide susceptibility assessment.
(3) The index system of landslide susceptibility assessment in the study area involves rock types and structure (lithology and fault), valley slope geometry and landform (aspect, slope, elevation and drainage network), hydrogeological conditions (Normal Different Vegetation Index, NDVI), dynamical factors (distance to river) and the fractal characteristics of the inducing factors (the fractal dimension of the small watershed).
(4) Landslide susceptibility assessment based on weights of evidence modeling was involved.
The weights of evidence model has been used for evaluating the contribution of the inducing factors to the occurrence of landslide to determine the assessing factors, and for landslide susceptibility assessment. According to the calculated weight values, the most important factors determining susceptibility are distance from river, elevation, lithology, distance from faults interface, drainage network and the fractal dimension of the small watershed. However, it is the combination of two or more classes of factors, which has the strongest influence on susceptibility and is not one single factor alone.
The weights of evidence vary widely with different factors of evidence. The weights of evidence for lithology and for cumulative distance from faults interface are relatively very large, but they are smaller than those for cumulative distance from the Yangtze River. The weights of evidence for cumulative distance from the Yangtze River are the largest, which indicates that the river erosion is the most important factor controlling the occurrence of landslides in the study area, which is coincident with the actual fact that the landslides in the study area are mostly located along the banks of the Yangtze river. The calculated results show that the elevation is also an important factor controlling the occurrence of landslides in the study area. The calculated results show that the aspect and NDVI have certain influences on the occurrence of landslides, but the influence is relatively very small.
There have differences in the weights of evidence among the different classes of the same factors of evidence. For example, the calculated results show that the weights of evidence for lithology of the Jialingjiang Formation (Tjs) of lower Triassic, the Badong Formation (Tb) of middle Triassic, the Tongzhuyuan Formation (Jt) of lower Jurassic, the Niejiashan Formation (Jn) of middle Jurassic and the 500m distance from interface between Permian and Carboniferous, Devonian and Silurian periods are much higher than any other lithology, which is coincident with the actual fact that the landslides are mostly located in the above lithology in the study area. The calculated results indicate that the river erosion becomes more and more violent and the slope becomes more and more unstable while the distance from the river is nearer and nearer, which is coincident with the occurrence of the already known landslides.
According to the landslide hazards zonation mapping, there are three potentially dangerous areas with landslides in the study area. The first one is the region between Xietan and Huanglashi, where there exist such famous landslides as Huanglashi landslide, Fanjiaping landslide and Daping landslides. The second one is the region around Xiangxi town with the important Xiangxi landslides. And the third area is located in the region from Xintan to Lianzhiya with the famous Xintan landslide and Lianzhiya landslip. The study result is very coincident with the occurrence of the known landslides in the study area, which shows that the methodology is very useful and accurate and that the approach is appropriate for zonation of the landslide hazards.
The study results are quite coincident with the occurrences of the known landslides, which show that the results are very accurate and have good quality. As a data-driven model, the weights of evidence model could help choose the main factors and calculate the weight values well and truly, avoiding man-made subjectivity. So the methodology is very useful and accurate and the approach is appropriate for zonation of the landslide hazards.
(5) Logistic regression, fuzzy logic and fuzzy weights of evidence are used for landslide susceptibility assessment in the study area. The research results are very coincident with the occurrences of the known landslides.
The main innovations of this thesis are as follows:
(1) The fractal characteristics of geometric shape and spatial distribution of the landslide, the occurring conditions and inducing factors as landform, drainage network and fault are integratively studied.
(2) The theory of the variable dimension fractal was used for evaluating the relationship between the inducing factors and the occurrence of the landslide to provide the fractal basis to establish the index system of landslide susceptibility assessment.
(3) The index system of landslide susceptibility assessment in the study area involves rock types and structure (lithology, fault), valley slope geometry and landform(aspect, slope, elevation and drainage network), hydrogeological conditions(NDVI), dynamical factors(distance to river) and the fractal characteristics of the inducing factors(the fractal dimension of the small watershed).
(4) The data-driven model (logistic regression and weights of evidence), the knowledge-driven model (fuzzy logic) and data-knowledge-driven model (fuzzy weights of evidence) were applied for landslide susceptibility assessment in the study area. The research results are very coincident with the occurrences of the known landslides.
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