价值链分工下发展中国家贸易利益研究
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摘要
贸易利益是各国参与国际分工、开展国际贸易的出发点和归宿。国际分工格局决定贸易利益的分配格局。20世纪60年代以来,国际分工发生了深刻变化,全球价值链分工获得广泛发展。发展中国家以低端环节嵌入全球价值链,主要表现形式为加工贸易。价值链分工给发展中国家的贸易利益带来重要影响,既带来新的发展机遇,又存在发展陷阱和风险。
论文以价值链分工下发展中国家贸易利益为主线,利用大量的文献资料,分析发展中国家在价值链分工中的静态和动态贸易利益以及分工风险,并结合中国的状况,探讨发展中国家贸易利益的提升战略和措施。
论文共分六章。第一章介绍选题的背景与研究的意义、国内外相关研究述评、论文的逻辑、研究方法和创新。第二章主要介绍和分析全球价值链分工的产生与发展中国家的参与。首先分析全球价值链分工的内涵,通过对国际分工历史演变的简要分析,概括总结价值链分工的特点和产生的动因；接着分析发展中国家参与全球价值链分工的形式及特点；最后介绍学术界衡量价值链分工参与程度的常用指标、计算方法及研究结论,并分析发展中国家价值链分工参与程度的主要影响因素。
第三章分析发展中国家在价值链分工中的静态贸易利益及风险。首先指出价值链分工下发展中国家静态贸易利益的变化特点,即主体出现多元化,贸易利益被分割,真正反映贸易静态利益的是出口附加值的变化；然后利用传统贸易理论的拓展模型,分析发展中国家静态贸易利益及变化,并逐步推演出传统分析中的贸易利益衡量指标——贸易条件,已不能反映发展中国家的静态贸易利益变化,就此提出利用微笑曲线来构筑发展中国家在价值链分工中的贸易利益函数,并进一步分析在技术进步、非充分就业和产业扩张的条件下贸易利益曲线的变动及对发展中国家贸易利益的影响。最后,在吸收和借鉴已有学者分析成果的基础上,提出能够更直观地反映一国在价值链分工中获得的静态贸易利益大小的衡量指标：相对出口附加值,并且根据出口附加值的公式和计算方法对中国的制造业进行实际测算,得出中国在价值链分工中获取的利益只是其出口的1/3左右,随着经济的发展,技术的进步,比例有上升趋势,但是不显著。通过这章的分析,可以看出发展中国家在这种新型的分工中,处于弱势地位,获得的贸易利益相对较小,而且可能会出现“悲惨的增长”和“路径锁定”。
第四章主要采用历史经验分析和逻辑推理分析,探讨发展中国家的动态贸易利益。具体分析了价值链分工对发展中国家的就业利益、经济增长利益、技术进步利益、产业升级利益的影响路径和利益风险,并得出结论：价值链分工对发展中国家的就业、技术进步、产业发展、经济增长都有一定的正效应,但同时也存在一定的风险,而且各国因为参与价值链分工的程度不同和各国国内经济和制度环境不同,获取的效应会有差异。
第五章主要探讨发展中国家如何在全球价值链分工体系中提升静态贸易利益和动态贸易利益。提出发展中国家提升静态贸易利益应该从增加整体分工附加值和单位附加值入手,并且应在分工中寻求和谐发展,努力打造国家制造品牌；提升动态贸易利益应该规避和减弱分工风险,充分发挥发展中国家的“后发优势”。
第六章分析中国在价值链分工中的地位和贸易利益问题。该部分首先从商品加工分类的贸易统计及加工贸易的视角较客观地描述了中国在价值链分工中的地位及特点,并从历史经验中分析中国在价值链分工获取的动态利益,利用协整分析和格兰杰因果检验方法实证分析加工贸易对我国经济增长的影响。鉴于中美贸易在国际社会和中美两国的重要地位,本文接着分析了中国在对美国出口的贸易利益问题。首先从多个角度探讨了中美贸易中的价值链分工因素,测算了中国对美国制造业出口中获取的附加值,提出中美贸易中的静态贸易利益要比实际贸易顺差小得多；接着,利用中国对美出口的附加值指标,利用协整分析和格兰杰因果检验及脉冲响应图等方法,实证分析向美国的出口对中国的就业、产业结构提升及技术进步的实际影响,结果显示有一定的正效应,符合第四章的分析结论,但是,拉动效应不显著。最后,分析中国在全球价值链分工中面临的贸易利益风险和发展困境,提出应及时调整价值链分工战略,积极寻求有效措施,提升价值链分工的贸易利益。
Trade benefit is a starting point and end-result for countries participated in international division and international trade. It is the international division of labor that decides the pattern of trade benefits. Since the 1960s, as the development of international division, the division of global value chains (GVC) has also experienced a development of wide-ranging and deep-going. More and more developing countries have embedded in GVC by specialization in the lower value-added chains through processing trade. The division of labor in GVC has brought some profound changes for trade benefits of developing countries, which embody not only new opportunities, but also traps or risks.
This dissertation takes the trade benefits of developing countries in GVC as its core to analyze dynamic trade benefit and risks of the developing countries in GVC, using a large quantity of literatures. It also talks about the strategies and practices to promote the trade benefits of developing countries, combining with the current development of China.
The dissertation is divided into six chapters. The first chapter introduces the background and significance of research, the literature review, the logic arrangement of the dissertation, the methods of research, and innovations. The second chapter basically discusses the emergence of Global Value Chains and the participation of developing countries in the GVC. Firstly, it analyzes the connotation of the division of labor in GVC and summarizes the characteristics and motivation of GVC through the analysis of the historical evolution of international division of labor. Secondly, the paper analyzes the participation's forms and characteristics of the developing countries in GVC. Finally, this chapter introduces some indexes used to measure the degree of participation in GVC and its calculation methods and conclusions, and analyzes the main factors that affect the participation degree of developing countries in GVC.
The third chapter analyses the static trade benefits and division risks in GVC of developing countries'. First of all, it points out the characteristics of variation in the static trade benefits of developing countries in GVC. That is the true manifestation of the static trade benefit of developing countries is the variation of export value-add because of the diversification of trade bodies and the division of trade benefits. And then, it analyses the static trade benefit and its variations of developing countries through the use of extend model of traditional trade theories, and gradually deduces that traditional trade benefits index- "trade conditions" can no longer reflect the static trade benefits of developing countries'. On the basis of this, it establishes a function of trade benefits of developing countries with the using of "smile curve", and analyses further the variation of trade benefits curve and the impacts to trade benefits of developing countries under the conditions of technological advance, non-full employment, and industry expansion. Finally, this chapter proposes a more vividly index under the basis of absorb and draw upon all the achievements of previous studies, the comparative export value-added to manifest the static trade benefits of developing countries in GVC, and does a calculation for the manufacturing industry of China with the formula and calculation method of export value-added. The result shows that the benefit that China acquires in GVC is only one third of its export value. Although the proportion shows a trend of ascending as the economic development, technological advance, the trend is not significant. It can be seen through the analysis of this chapter that the developing countries are in a disadvantageous position and acquire relatively smaller trade benefits in this new mode of division. And the developing countries would probably face the effect of "tragic growth" and "pack lock"
The fourth chapter discuses about the dynamic trade benefit with the analysis of historical experience and logical deduction from the point of view of the effect path and interest risk that GVC has to employment, national income, technological advance, industry development. It concludes that the GVC not only has positive effect to employment, technological advance, industry development, and economic growth, but also risk. And the positive effects are not the same for the differences in degrees of participation in GVC and the national economies and institutional environment in various countries.
The fifth chapter explores how to promote the static and dynamic trade benefits in GVC of the developing countries. For the static trade benefit, it proposes that the developing countries should increase overall and unit division value-added, and seek the harmonious development in international division to create the fame of national manufacture. For the dynamic trade benefit, the developing countries should exert its late-development advantage of developing countries to avoid and decrease risk of trade.
The sixth chapter analyses status of China in GVC and its trade benefits. Firstly, it describes the status and characteristics of China in GVC objectively from the point of view of classification of goods processing and processing trade, talks about the dynamic benefits from the analysis of historical experience that China acquires from GVC, and analyses the impacts of processing trade to economic growth using co- integration analysis and the method of Granger causality test.In view of the importance of trade between China and the U.S., and the significance of the two countries in international arena, this dissertation analyses the trade benefit that China acquires in the exportation to the U.S. It discuses the factors that affect the division of labor in GVC in the trade between the two countries, calculates the value-added that China acquires in the exportation of manufacture industry to the U.S., and points out that the static benefit of trade between the two countries is much smaller than that of the actual trade surplus. It also analyses the actual impact of the exportation of US to employment, improvement of industry structure, and technological advance of China through the empirical analysis of co-integration and granger causality test and impulse response diagram using the index of China's value-added of exports to the U.S. The result shows that the impact is positive which is in line with the conclusion of Chapter four, but the impact is not large. Finally, it analyzes the risk of trade benefit and the dilemma in development that China faces in GVC, proposes that China should adjust the strategy of value chain division promptly and seek the effective measures to promote the trade benefits in GVC.
论文以价值链分工下发展中国家贸易利益为主线,利用大量的文献资料,分析发展中国家在价值链分工中的静态和动态贸易利益以及分工风险,并结合中国的状况,探讨发展中国家贸易利益的提升战略和措施。
论文共分六章。第一章介绍选题的背景与研究的意义、国内外相关研究述评、论文的逻辑、研究方法和创新。第二章主要介绍和分析全球价值链分工的产生与发展中国家的参与。首先分析全球价值链分工的内涵,通过对国际分工历史演变的简要分析,概括总结价值链分工的特点和产生的动因；接着分析发展中国家参与全球价值链分工的形式及特点；最后介绍学术界衡量价值链分工参与程度的常用指标、计算方法及研究结论,并分析发展中国家价值链分工参与程度的主要影响因素。
第三章分析发展中国家在价值链分工中的静态贸易利益及风险。首先指出价值链分工下发展中国家静态贸易利益的变化特点,即主体出现多元化,贸易利益被分割,真正反映贸易静态利益的是出口附加值的变化；然后利用传统贸易理论的拓展模型,分析发展中国家静态贸易利益及变化,并逐步推演出传统分析中的贸易利益衡量指标——贸易条件,已不能反映发展中国家的静态贸易利益变化,就此提出利用微笑曲线来构筑发展中国家在价值链分工中的贸易利益函数,并进一步分析在技术进步、非充分就业和产业扩张的条件下贸易利益曲线的变动及对发展中国家贸易利益的影响。最后,在吸收和借鉴已有学者分析成果的基础上,提出能够更直观地反映一国在价值链分工中获得的静态贸易利益大小的衡量指标：相对出口附加值,并且根据出口附加值的公式和计算方法对中国的制造业进行实际测算,得出中国在价值链分工中获取的利益只是其出口的1/3左右,随着经济的发展,技术的进步,比例有上升趋势,但是不显著。通过这章的分析,可以看出发展中国家在这种新型的分工中,处于弱势地位,获得的贸易利益相对较小,而且可能会出现“悲惨的增长”和“路径锁定”。
第四章主要采用历史经验分析和逻辑推理分析,探讨发展中国家的动态贸易利益。具体分析了价值链分工对发展中国家的就业利益、经济增长利益、技术进步利益、产业升级利益的影响路径和利益风险,并得出结论：价值链分工对发展中国家的就业、技术进步、产业发展、经济增长都有一定的正效应,但同时也存在一定的风险,而且各国因为参与价值链分工的程度不同和各国国内经济和制度环境不同,获取的效应会有差异。
第五章主要探讨发展中国家如何在全球价值链分工体系中提升静态贸易利益和动态贸易利益。提出发展中国家提升静态贸易利益应该从增加整体分工附加值和单位附加值入手,并且应在分工中寻求和谐发展,努力打造国家制造品牌；提升动态贸易利益应该规避和减弱分工风险,充分发挥发展中国家的“后发优势”。
第六章分析中国在价值链分工中的地位和贸易利益问题。该部分首先从商品加工分类的贸易统计及加工贸易的视角较客观地描述了中国在价值链分工中的地位及特点,并从历史经验中分析中国在价值链分工获取的动态利益,利用协整分析和格兰杰因果检验方法实证分析加工贸易对我国经济增长的影响。鉴于中美贸易在国际社会和中美两国的重要地位,本文接着分析了中国在对美国出口的贸易利益问题。首先从多个角度探讨了中美贸易中的价值链分工因素,测算了中国对美国制造业出口中获取的附加值,提出中美贸易中的静态贸易利益要比实际贸易顺差小得多；接着,利用中国对美出口的附加值指标,利用协整分析和格兰杰因果检验及脉冲响应图等方法,实证分析向美国的出口对中国的就业、产业结构提升及技术进步的实际影响,结果显示有一定的正效应,符合第四章的分析结论,但是,拉动效应不显著。最后,分析中国在全球价值链分工中面临的贸易利益风险和发展困境,提出应及时调整价值链分工战略,积极寻求有效措施,提升价值链分工的贸易利益。
Trade benefit is a starting point and end-result for countries participated in international division and international trade. It is the international division of labor that decides the pattern of trade benefits. Since the 1960s, as the development of international division, the division of global value chains (GVC) has also experienced a development of wide-ranging and deep-going. More and more developing countries have embedded in GVC by specialization in the lower value-added chains through processing trade. The division of labor in GVC has brought some profound changes for trade benefits of developing countries, which embody not only new opportunities, but also traps or risks.
This dissertation takes the trade benefits of developing countries in GVC as its core to analyze dynamic trade benefit and risks of the developing countries in GVC, using a large quantity of literatures. It also talks about the strategies and practices to promote the trade benefits of developing countries, combining with the current development of China.
The dissertation is divided into six chapters. The first chapter introduces the background and significance of research, the literature review, the logic arrangement of the dissertation, the methods of research, and innovations. The second chapter basically discusses the emergence of Global Value Chains and the participation of developing countries in the GVC. Firstly, it analyzes the connotation of the division of labor in GVC and summarizes the characteristics and motivation of GVC through the analysis of the historical evolution of international division of labor. Secondly, the paper analyzes the participation's forms and characteristics of the developing countries in GVC. Finally, this chapter introduces some indexes used to measure the degree of participation in GVC and its calculation methods and conclusions, and analyzes the main factors that affect the participation degree of developing countries in GVC.
The third chapter analyses the static trade benefits and division risks in GVC of developing countries'. First of all, it points out the characteristics of variation in the static trade benefits of developing countries in GVC. That is the true manifestation of the static trade benefit of developing countries is the variation of export value-add because of the diversification of trade bodies and the division of trade benefits. And then, it analyses the static trade benefit and its variations of developing countries through the use of extend model of traditional trade theories, and gradually deduces that traditional trade benefits index- "trade conditions" can no longer reflect the static trade benefits of developing countries'. On the basis of this, it establishes a function of trade benefits of developing countries with the using of "smile curve", and analyses further the variation of trade benefits curve and the impacts to trade benefits of developing countries under the conditions of technological advance, non-full employment, and industry expansion. Finally, this chapter proposes a more vividly index under the basis of absorb and draw upon all the achievements of previous studies, the comparative export value-added to manifest the static trade benefits of developing countries in GVC, and does a calculation for the manufacturing industry of China with the formula and calculation method of export value-added. The result shows that the benefit that China acquires in GVC is only one third of its export value. Although the proportion shows a trend of ascending as the economic development, technological advance, the trend is not significant. It can be seen through the analysis of this chapter that the developing countries are in a disadvantageous position and acquire relatively smaller trade benefits in this new mode of division. And the developing countries would probably face the effect of "tragic growth" and "pack lock"
The fourth chapter discuses about the dynamic trade benefit with the analysis of historical experience and logical deduction from the point of view of the effect path and interest risk that GVC has to employment, national income, technological advance, industry development. It concludes that the GVC not only has positive effect to employment, technological advance, industry development, and economic growth, but also risk. And the positive effects are not the same for the differences in degrees of participation in GVC and the national economies and institutional environment in various countries.
The fifth chapter explores how to promote the static and dynamic trade benefits in GVC of the developing countries. For the static trade benefit, it proposes that the developing countries should increase overall and unit division value-added, and seek the harmonious development in international division to create the fame of national manufacture. For the dynamic trade benefit, the developing countries should exert its late-development advantage of developing countries to avoid and decrease risk of trade.
The sixth chapter analyses status of China in GVC and its trade benefits. Firstly, it describes the status and characteristics of China in GVC objectively from the point of view of classification of goods processing and processing trade, talks about the dynamic benefits from the analysis of historical experience that China acquires from GVC, and analyses the impacts of processing trade to economic growth using co- integration analysis and the method of Granger causality test.In view of the importance of trade between China and the U.S., and the significance of the two countries in international arena, this dissertation analyses the trade benefit that China acquires in the exportation to the U.S. It discuses the factors that affect the division of labor in GVC in the trade between the two countries, calculates the value-added that China acquires in the exportation of manufacture industry to the U.S., and points out that the static benefit of trade between the two countries is much smaller than that of the actual trade surplus. It also analyses the actual impact of the exportation of US to employment, improvement of industry structure, and technological advance of China through the empirical analysis of co-integration and granger causality test and impulse response diagram using the index of China's value-added of exports to the U.S. The result shows that the impact is positive which is in line with the conclusion of Chapter four, but the impact is not large. Finally, it analyzes the risk of trade benefit and the dilemma in development that China faces in GVC, proposes that China should adjust the strategy of value chain division promptly and seek the effective measures to promote the trade benefits in GVC.
引文
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