S集团公司设备采购方案评估问题研究
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摘要
随着第三次汽车消费的浪潮已经来临,国内市场的购买力不断增强,汽车销售异常火爆。从汽车产业链条逆向推断,销售的增长将带动汽车制造企业的恢复和发展,汽车电子制造业也被相应的带动起来,使得企业的产能大幅扩张。本文以S集团公司生产线产能扩张改造项目为背景,对S集团公司的设备采购方案进行评估。
论文首先采用新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型对S集团公司三种主导产品未来半年的生产订单进行预测,通过和现有生产能力对比,计算出现有的设备已经无法满足未来的订单需求;其次,根据设备采购方案选择的特点,对S集团公司设备采购评估影响因素分析的基础上,采用因子分析方法,应用Spass软件初始的指标进行有效筛选,并对指标进行了合理化划分,从而构建S集团公司设备采购方案评估指标体系;再次,将AHP和贝叶斯网络模型方法整合,构建了基于AHP-贝叶斯网络的设备采购方案评估模型,并对该模型性质进行了研究;最后,基于AHP-贝叶斯网络的设备采购方案评估模型,对S集团公司设备采购方案进行了评估,计算过程通过软件进行实现,并提出了根据评估过程中信息变化,对评估结果进行调整的方法。
In recent years, with the third wave of automobile consumption, the purchasing power of domestic market is increasing as well as automobile sales market. As adverse inferred from the automobile industry chain, we could make the conclusion that the automotive industry will face greater challenges and opportunities in the near further. In this situation, many automobile manufacturing enterprises could make fast development, so will the automobile electronics industry do. It is a great chance for the enterprises to make a substantial expansion of production capacity so as to meets the increasing requirements of the automobile market. This paper made the evaluation of equipment procurement schemes in the process of the production expansion project in S Group Company.
Firstly, the production orders for the next six years of three important products of S Group Company have been predicted by means of grey GM (1, 1) model in this paper. After that, comparing the orders with the production capacity, we could make the conclusion that the equipments of S Group Company can not satisfy the requirements of the market. Secondly, based on the analysis on the influencing factors of equipment procurement in S group company, we make a selection among initial indicators using the method factorial analysis by the software of Spass, and then we constructed the index system of equipment procurement schemes evaluation index system according to the feathers in the process of the selection of equipment procurement schemes. Thirdly, integrating the AHP model and Bayesian Netware model, we put forward a new model called the equipment procurement schemes evaluation model based on AHP-Bayesian Netware, besides we make some research on the properties of the model. Finally, the equipment procurement schemes have been evaluated by means of the model mentioned above, and a kind of software has been designed so as to simplify the processes of calculation, and the evaluation results could be easily adjusted along with the update of the information in the process of evaluation.
论文首先采用新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型对S集团公司三种主导产品未来半年的生产订单进行预测,通过和现有生产能力对比,计算出现有的设备已经无法满足未来的订单需求;其次,根据设备采购方案选择的特点,对S集团公司设备采购评估影响因素分析的基础上,采用因子分析方法,应用Spass软件初始的指标进行有效筛选,并对指标进行了合理化划分,从而构建S集团公司设备采购方案评估指标体系;再次,将AHP和贝叶斯网络模型方法整合,构建了基于AHP-贝叶斯网络的设备采购方案评估模型,并对该模型性质进行了研究;最后,基于AHP-贝叶斯网络的设备采购方案评估模型,对S集团公司设备采购方案进行了评估,计算过程通过软件进行实现,并提出了根据评估过程中信息变化,对评估结果进行调整的方法。
In recent years, with the third wave of automobile consumption, the purchasing power of domestic market is increasing as well as automobile sales market. As adverse inferred from the automobile industry chain, we could make the conclusion that the automotive industry will face greater challenges and opportunities in the near further. In this situation, many automobile manufacturing enterprises could make fast development, so will the automobile electronics industry do. It is a great chance for the enterprises to make a substantial expansion of production capacity so as to meets the increasing requirements of the automobile market. This paper made the evaluation of equipment procurement schemes in the process of the production expansion project in S Group Company.
Firstly, the production orders for the next six years of three important products of S Group Company have been predicted by means of grey GM (1, 1) model in this paper. After that, comparing the orders with the production capacity, we could make the conclusion that the equipments of S Group Company can not satisfy the requirements of the market. Secondly, based on the analysis on the influencing factors of equipment procurement in S group company, we make a selection among initial indicators using the method factorial analysis by the software of Spass, and then we constructed the index system of equipment procurement schemes evaluation index system according to the feathers in the process of the selection of equipment procurement schemes. Thirdly, integrating the AHP model and Bayesian Netware model, we put forward a new model called the equipment procurement schemes evaluation model based on AHP-Bayesian Netware, besides we make some research on the properties of the model. Finally, the equipment procurement schemes have been evaluated by means of the model mentioned above, and a kind of software has been designed so as to simplify the processes of calculation, and the evaluation results could be easily adjusted along with the update of the information in the process of evaluation.
引文
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[2]邵志芳,钱省三.工业工程部门在集成电路制造企业中的作用与职责[J].微电子学报.2004: 34(01):13~17.
[3]李琦,刘大成,郑力等.半导体生产规划中的优化决策方法[J]. Semi~conductor technology, 2004, 29(07): 35~39.
[4]李琦,刘大成,王慧竹等.半导体制造业生产计划的优化方法[J].制造技术与机床,2004 (11):93~96.
[5] Metin Cakanyildirim, Robin O.Round. Semie-conductor demand forecast accuracy model[J]. IIE Transactions,2002(34):449~465.
[6] Damodaran P., Melouk S.Comparison of push and pull systems with transporters:a metamodelling approach[J]. Intemational Joumal of Production Research, 2002, 40(12):2923~2936.
[7] J.K.Cochran, H.-N.Chen. Generating daily production plans for complex manufacturing facilities using multi~objective genetic algorithms[J]. Intenational Journal of Production Research, 2002, 40(16): 4147~4167.
[8] S.Karabuk, S.D.Wu. Decentralizing semi-conductor capacity planning via internal market coordination[J]. IIE Transactions, 2002, 34:743~759.
[9] Richard Kielbasa, Gif-sur~Yvette. Modeling semi-conductor manufacturing yield by test data and partial least square[C]. The 16th international conference on microeletronics, 2004: 404~407.
[10] Feng Zhang, Robin Roundy, Metin Cakanyildirim, Woonghee Tim Huh. Optional Capacity Expansion for Multi-Product, Multi-Machine Manufacturing Systems with Stochastic Demand[J]. IIE Transactions, 2004, 36 (1):23~26.
[11]曹聪梅,陈又玲.基于重置成本的分别比估计在机器设备评估中的应用[J].中国农业大学学报. 1998,3(06):11~15.
[12]陈三林,蔡宇.自制设备评估的理论与实践[J].企业经济.2002,2:57~58.
[13]樊彪.机械设备评估的分析与计算[J].机械管理开发.2003,8(04):110~111.
[14]罗小黔,郭劲松,刘剑.模糊综合评价法在机电设备评标中的应用[J].贵州水力发电.2006,10(20): 68~72.
[15]刘新宪,朱道立.选择与判断——AHP(层次分析法)决策[M].上海:上海科普及出版社,1990.
[16]杜栋.论AHP的标度评价[J].运筹与管理.2000(04).
[17] Thomas L. Saaty.Making and validating complex decisions with the AHP/ANP[J]. Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering, 2005, 14(01).
[18] Thomas L. Saaty. Decision Making-the analytic hierarchy and nerwork processes (AHP/ANP)[J], Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering. 2004(01).
[19] Thomas L. Saaty. There is no mathantical validity for using fuzzy number crunching in the analytic hierarchy process[J]. Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering. 2006(04).
[20] Thomas L. Saaty. Fundamentals of the analytic network process-dependence and feedback in decision-making with a single network[J]. Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering. 2004(02).
[21]江榕.基于AHP的企业逆向供应链响应时间管理模型构建及对策分析[J].Value Engineering,2009(01).
[22]尹晓伟,钱文学,谢里阳.基于贝叶斯网络的系统可靠性共因失效模型[J].中国机械工程,2009(01).
[23]厉海涛,金光,周忠宝.基于贝叶斯网络的动量轮可靠性建模与评估[J].系统工程与电子技术,2009(02).
[24]何明,裘杭萍,姜志平,戴剑峰,曾琼.基于贝叶斯网络的系统可靠性评估方法研究[J].系统仿真学报,2009(16).
[25]雷娜,周渝慧,王蓉蓉.贝叶斯网络的复杂配电网可靠性评估[J].电力系统及其自动化学报, 2009(01).
[26]尹晓伟,钱文学,谢里阳.系统可靠性的贝叶斯网络评估方法[J].航空学报,2008(06).
[27]周金宇,谢里阳,王学敏.多状态系统共因失效分析及可靠性模型[J].机械工程学报, 2005(06).
[28]刘思峰,党耀国,方志耕.灰色系统理论及其应用[M].北京:科学出版社.2004.
[29]冯健儒.面向汽车营销的市场需求预测模型设计与实现[博士论文].吉林大学,2009.
[30]谢作渺,朱晋阳.企业建立可持续竞争优势的途径[J].江苏商论,2008 (11).
[31]杨洋.食品生产线生产能力仿真模型研究[博士论文].四川:四川大学.2007.
[32]肖佩,贾国丽,辜志强.面向产能柔性的综合生产计划模型研究[J].机械工程与自动化,2007(03).
[33]董楠.基于制造型企业的生产能力评估方法研究[博士论文].西安电子科技大学,2009.
[34]杜江,曹岩,白瑀.制造企业的产能因素分析及度量[J].西安工业大学学报,2007 (05).
[35]刘小玲,李辉,郭治国.基于狄克斯特拉算法的车间动态生产能力评估与实现[J].微计算机信息,2006(12).
[36]张力菠,韩玉启,陈杰等.生产能力扩大的系统动态性研究[J].系统仿真学报, 2006(05).
[37]彭辉.制造系统中的生产能力管理研究[硕士论文].南京理工大学,2001.
[38]方叶祥.机械制造企业的生产能力及能力计划研究[J].预测,2003(01).
[39]左龙江.供应链管理环境下的生产能力规划原理及方法研究[博士论文].四川大学,2006.
[40]吕子岚.供电公司设备采购招标评价体系研究[博士论文].华北电力大学,2009.
[41]阎涛.电力设备采购评标模型研究[博士论文].华北电力大学,2009.
[42]傅荣林.主成分综合评价模型的探讨[J].系统工程理论与实践,2001(11).
[43]魏永佺.政府招标采购评标方法初探[J].时代经贸,2006(01).
[44]单宏胜,黄业仲,黄文杰.基于SMART准则的火电机组设备采购评标指标体系研究[J].电力设备,2007(05).
[45]鲍玉昆,张金隆,孙福全,李新男.基于SMART准则的科技项目评标指标体系结构模型设计.科学学与科学技术管理,2003:246~248.
[46] SMART原则[J].管理与财富,2005(05).
[47]赵雨鸥.大型国企招标投标问题研究[J].国际市场,2005(07).
[48]邓佩珍.图书采购招标综合评标指标体系研究[J].图书馆学研究,2008(08).
[49]崔卫华.电力建设项目招标中评标方法研究[博士论文].华北电力大学,2008.
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