输电网规划建模与决策分析研究
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摘要
随着我国电力工业改革的启动,整个电力工业正进行着“厂网分开、竞价上网”的变革,输电规划面临全新的外部环境,传统的规划方法与模型不能满足电力市场的要求。电力市场给输电规划主要带来两个难题:一个是电源规划不能完全确定和节点负荷不确定性增加;另一个是合理的输电规划决策方法。为了科学地规划输电网络,满足我国急速增长的用电需求,急需寻求合适的输电规划方法与模型,并对输电规划方案进行科学决策。因此,本论文选择电力市场环境下输电规划建模和输电规划方案决策评价为主要研究内容。
针对电力市场环境下不确定因素的影响,建立了不确定输电规划模型,利用模糊数对节点有功负荷和节点发电有功出力进行描述,采用求解基于隶属度的最优解的方法求解优越规划方案集,提出基于输电线路单元扩展可能性的不确定输电规划决策方法,使输电规划“尽可能地”满足电源和负荷发展的需求。
对输电规划各环节进行数学描述,得到输电规划决策流程,并把决策过程按输电规划两步法分为两个核心步骤——生成优越方案集和评价决策,建立了输电网络两步规划法的优越方案集生成模型,使输电规划决策规范化和模型化,为输电规划科学决策提供依据和基础。
采用基于支路节点有功功率灵敏度分析方法,定量评估输电网络规划方案对未来电源发展规划和负荷发展的适应性,通过对输电网络规划方案的节点适应性评估,可以引导新增发电装机或新增负荷在合适的节点接入输电网络。
针对电力市场环境下输电规划是多评价指标决策问题,提出了输电规划技术经济综合评价方法,建立了技术经济综合评价指标体系,并采用基于指标差异最大化的方法确定各评价指标的权重系数,达到对输电规划方案全面综合评价,避免了常规输电规划方案选择时不能全面评价的局限性。
结合我国电力负荷持续增长、投资成本逐年飙升的实际情况,提出了计及负荷快速增长,将快速增长的负荷水平在输电规划中提前考虑,并计及输电工程建设成本增长的“改进多阶段输电规划”。增加了输电规划方案对未来负荷增长的适应性,降低了工程投资风险,体现了电力市场环境下输电网络适当超前发展规划的新内涵。
在输电规划模型求解方面,利用混沌的遍历性和免疫疫苗接种的生物免疫机制对基本粒子群优化算法进行改进,提出了混沌免疫接种粒子群优化算法并应用于输电规划模型求解,能够改善粒子群优化易陷入局部最优的缺点,加快收敛速度,提高收敛精度。
通过算例系统测试研究表明,本论文提出的输电规划模型与输电规划决策评价方法是合理的和有效的。
With the development of electric utility reformation, electric power utilities are carrying out revolution on price bidding and separation of transmission and generation in China. Transmission planning is encountered with brand-new external environment. Traditional transmission planning methods and models can not meet demand of the deregulated electricity market. Generation planning uncertainty and increased load uncertainty, and reasonable decision-making method are the two difficult problems to be solved in transmission planning in a deregulated electricity market. In order to scientifically plan the transmission network and meet the increasing load demand, the suitable transmission planning model and method are urgently required, and transmission planning scheme is necessary for scientific decision. Therefore, this dissertation chooses transmission planning modeling and transmission planning scheme decision-making under deregulated electric power system as the main research contents.
This dissertation establishes an uncertain transmission planning model to cover the uncertain factors of electricity market on transmission planning. This model describes the uncertainty of load and generation injection by fuzzy number, solves the superiority planning scheme set based on membership, and brings forward the decision-making method of uncertain transmission planning based on expansion feasible of transmission line unit. It can meet the demand of generation and load as much as possible.
This dissertation describes all segments of transmission planning on mathematic, and then yields the process of making decision. The decision-making process can be divided into two kernel steps according to two-step transmission planning method: form superiority planning scheme set and decision-making. This dissertation establishes the model on forming superiority planning scheme set for two-step transmission planning method. It normalizes and models the transmission planning decision-making, and provides the foundation of scientific decision-making.
This dissertation quantitatively evaluate the adaptability of transmission network planning scheme to generation expansion planning and load increasing based on the branch-node real power sensitivity. The branch-node real power sensitivity can guide newly additional generation and load to connect with transmission network.
Since transmission planning is a multi-attribute decision problem under deregulated electric power system, this dissertation brings forward technical and economical integration evaluation for transmission planning, and establishes a set of indexes for integration evaluate. The integration evaluate method ascertains the weight of very index based on the maximal indexes differentia of every planning scheme. It can roundly evaluate the transmission planning scheme.
With the practical situation of load sustained growth and construction cost swift growth in China, this dissertation puts forward the modified multi-stage transmission planning considering the rapid growing load level and increasing construction cost, the rapid growing load level will ahead consider in transmission planning. This modified multi-stage transmission planning model increases the adaptability to load and reduces the risk in construction investment, and reflects the newly connotation of proper leading development planning on transmission network under deregulated electric power system.
In the aspect of model solving, this dissertation modifies the basic particle swarm optimization algorithm by chaos ergodicity and vaccination immune mechanism. This dissertation put forward the chaotic immune-vaccine particle swarm optimization, and applies it to solve transmission planning model. It can avoid getting into local optimum, speed up the convergence rate, and improve the accuracy of convergence.
Case systems show that these presented models and decision-making methods of this dissertation are feasible and effective.
针对电力市场环境下不确定因素的影响,建立了不确定输电规划模型,利用模糊数对节点有功负荷和节点发电有功出力进行描述,采用求解基于隶属度的最优解的方法求解优越规划方案集,提出基于输电线路单元扩展可能性的不确定输电规划决策方法,使输电规划“尽可能地”满足电源和负荷发展的需求。
对输电规划各环节进行数学描述,得到输电规划决策流程,并把决策过程按输电规划两步法分为两个核心步骤——生成优越方案集和评价决策,建立了输电网络两步规划法的优越方案集生成模型,使输电规划决策规范化和模型化,为输电规划科学决策提供依据和基础。
采用基于支路节点有功功率灵敏度分析方法,定量评估输电网络规划方案对未来电源发展规划和负荷发展的适应性,通过对输电网络规划方案的节点适应性评估,可以引导新增发电装机或新增负荷在合适的节点接入输电网络。
针对电力市场环境下输电规划是多评价指标决策问题,提出了输电规划技术经济综合评价方法,建立了技术经济综合评价指标体系,并采用基于指标差异最大化的方法确定各评价指标的权重系数,达到对输电规划方案全面综合评价,避免了常规输电规划方案选择时不能全面评价的局限性。
结合我国电力负荷持续增长、投资成本逐年飙升的实际情况,提出了计及负荷快速增长,将快速增长的负荷水平在输电规划中提前考虑,并计及输电工程建设成本增长的“改进多阶段输电规划”。增加了输电规划方案对未来负荷增长的适应性,降低了工程投资风险,体现了电力市场环境下输电网络适当超前发展规划的新内涵。
在输电规划模型求解方面,利用混沌的遍历性和免疫疫苗接种的生物免疫机制对基本粒子群优化算法进行改进,提出了混沌免疫接种粒子群优化算法并应用于输电规划模型求解,能够改善粒子群优化易陷入局部最优的缺点,加快收敛速度,提高收敛精度。
通过算例系统测试研究表明,本论文提出的输电规划模型与输电规划决策评价方法是合理的和有效的。
With the development of electric utility reformation, electric power utilities are carrying out revolution on price bidding and separation of transmission and generation in China. Transmission planning is encountered with brand-new external environment. Traditional transmission planning methods and models can not meet demand of the deregulated electricity market. Generation planning uncertainty and increased load uncertainty, and reasonable decision-making method are the two difficult problems to be solved in transmission planning in a deregulated electricity market. In order to scientifically plan the transmission network and meet the increasing load demand, the suitable transmission planning model and method are urgently required, and transmission planning scheme is necessary for scientific decision. Therefore, this dissertation chooses transmission planning modeling and transmission planning scheme decision-making under deregulated electric power system as the main research contents.
This dissertation establishes an uncertain transmission planning model to cover the uncertain factors of electricity market on transmission planning. This model describes the uncertainty of load and generation injection by fuzzy number, solves the superiority planning scheme set based on membership, and brings forward the decision-making method of uncertain transmission planning based on expansion feasible of transmission line unit. It can meet the demand of generation and load as much as possible.
This dissertation describes all segments of transmission planning on mathematic, and then yields the process of making decision. The decision-making process can be divided into two kernel steps according to two-step transmission planning method: form superiority planning scheme set and decision-making. This dissertation establishes the model on forming superiority planning scheme set for two-step transmission planning method. It normalizes and models the transmission planning decision-making, and provides the foundation of scientific decision-making.
This dissertation quantitatively evaluate the adaptability of transmission network planning scheme to generation expansion planning and load increasing based on the branch-node real power sensitivity. The branch-node real power sensitivity can guide newly additional generation and load to connect with transmission network.
Since transmission planning is a multi-attribute decision problem under deregulated electric power system, this dissertation brings forward technical and economical integration evaluation for transmission planning, and establishes a set of indexes for integration evaluate. The integration evaluate method ascertains the weight of very index based on the maximal indexes differentia of every planning scheme. It can roundly evaluate the transmission planning scheme.
With the practical situation of load sustained growth and construction cost swift growth in China, this dissertation puts forward the modified multi-stage transmission planning considering the rapid growing load level and increasing construction cost, the rapid growing load level will ahead consider in transmission planning. This modified multi-stage transmission planning model increases the adaptability to load and reduces the risk in construction investment, and reflects the newly connotation of proper leading development planning on transmission network under deregulated electric power system.
In the aspect of model solving, this dissertation modifies the basic particle swarm optimization algorithm by chaos ergodicity and vaccination immune mechanism. This dissertation put forward the chaotic immune-vaccine particle swarm optimization, and applies it to solve transmission planning model. It can avoid getting into local optimum, speed up the convergence rate, and improve the accuracy of convergence.
Case systems show that these presented models and decision-making methods of this dissertation are feasible and effective.
引文
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