结构工程施工系统可靠性理论方法及其应用的研究
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摘要
本文借鉴国内外可靠性理论研究的主要成果,在施工生产系统可靠性理论和方法上开展较深入的研究,取得了以下主要的研究成果:
(1)基于结构施工的状况与特点,根据系统工程原理和系统可靠性工程理论,提出了施工系统的可靠性概念及其可靠度定义。基于工程施工的特性和系统工程原理,施工系统可靠性是研究施工过程实现目标体系的可靠性。结构施工期可靠性的研究重点,是探索施工期如何保证结构按照设计所确定的结构使用期的可靠性。从行为功能和生产系统的目标看,确保结构可靠性的施工期施工质量的控制,仅是施工系统的质量控制目标。施工的目标体系建立在设计的功能上,因此,施工可靠性的定义既有结构可靠性的内含,又有结构可靠性的外延。同时由于设计与施工的性质不同,施工可靠性具有不同于结构可靠性的新的定义。
(2)明确了施工过程系统可靠性关系。建筑产品可以划分为建设项目、单项工程、单位工程、分部工程、分项工程。组成单项工程施工的单位工程,系统可靠性主要表现为串联关系;组成单位工程的分部工程,其系统可靠性主要表现为串并联混合关系;组成分部工程施工的分项工程,其系统可靠性主要为串并联混合关系。本文在分析施工过程子系统的可靠性计算原理和方法的基础上,构建了施工系统可靠度计算的金字塔模型。
(3)提出了施工过程可靠度的确定方法。施工过程可靠度的确定的基本方法主要包括:由历史资料确定的概率分析法、利用理论概率分布的计算方法、主观概率法、主观概率估计值的改善法、蒙特卡罗法等。采用蒙特卡罗法,可以选出比较符合实际的分布函数。
(4)提出了非概率的可靠性分析方法。在前人的探索与工程施工应用的诸多方法上,归纳总结出“正常状态”界定法,并依据过程系统理论与灵敏度分析原理,提出了灵敏度分析方法,它们适用于难以确定可靠性概率和工作上不需确定可靠性概率的状况。
(5)明确了施工过程条件子系统的可靠性。将条件子系统分为人为子系统、施工机械设备子系统、材料供应子系统、施工方法子系统和施工环境子系统。建立了人为失误参数的统计分析方法和人为子系统的可靠度、改正度和有效度的计算方法。运用数学解析法分析了施工机械设备系统的可靠性数据结构及参数估计,确立了施工机械设备子系统可靠度的计算矩阵。提出了用马尔可夫方法计算施工材料设备子系统的可靠度。运用应力-强度干涉模型处理施工方法的可靠性计算问题,通过示例说明了其适用性。采用模糊可靠度分析施工环境可靠性,结合示例说明了模糊可靠度的计算。
(6)构建了施工目标子系统的主要目标“质量、工期、安全、成本”的相互关系,建立了相应的关系式。并针对目标措施之间“互为独立、互为因果和既有互为独立又有互为因果”的三种关系状态,建立了施工过程目标可靠度的计算思路及其费用关系,进行了费用有效性分析,构建了施工过程组织的成本可靠性控制模型。提出了用熵权原理计算目标子系统的可靠度。
(7)根据复杂网络系统可靠性原理,建立了施工系统可靠性的算法模型,运用邻接矩阵法求解复杂网络系统的最小路集,根据不交化原理,改进了BDD算法,提出了复杂网络系统可靠度的不交化最小路集的实现新方法,可通过编制计算机程序,有效的计算复杂施工网络系统的可靠度。
(8)建立了施工系统可靠度的评价标准。用模糊数学方法将模糊语言“极可靠”、“很可靠”、“可靠”、“比较可靠”、“临界可靠”、“比较不可靠”、“不可靠”、“很不可靠”、“极不可靠”转化为模糊数学的隶属函数模型,从而得到九个模糊评价区间,为施工系统及其各个子系统的可靠度评价提供了相应的方法和参数依据,经实证分析论证了其适用性。并基于复合系统协调控制原理,提出了施工系统可靠性的协调控制思路。
最后,以某长江公路大桥施工为例,介绍了施工系统可靠性理论和方法的应用。
In the paper the Theory and Method of reliability in Construction System is studied based on the main achievement of the domestic and foreign study about the fundamental of reliability, and the following results are mainly obtained:
(1)According to the condition and characteristic of Structure Construction and the fundamentals of Systems Engineering and System Reliability, the conception of the reliability of Construction System is stated. Based on the characteristic of the construction and the fundamentals of Systems Engineering, the reliability of Construction System is referring to achieving the reliability of objective system during the construction process. The emphasis of studying the reliability of the construction is to seek after the reliability of how to ensure the lifetime decided in the design. According to the behavior function and the goal of production system, it is pointed out that ensuring the controlling of the quality of construction during the construction process of construction reliability is just the quality control target. Therefore, the conception of the construction reliability includes both connotation and extension of the structure reliability. Besides, it is different from the structure reliability because of the difference between design and construction.
(2)The connection of the reliability of the process system is analyzed. The products of construction can be divided into five parts, such as construction projects, monomial projects, unit projects, subsection projects and subentry projects. The system reliability of unit projects, which the monomial projects are made of, mainly performs for the series relations. The system reliability of subentry projects, which the subsection projects are made of, mainly performs for the series-parallel relations. The paper analyzes the computation principle and method of the reliability of Process Subsystem, and develops the Pyramid model which is used to compute the reliability of Construction System.
(3)It is pointed out that the methods of computing the reliability of Process system. The main methods include the followings: probability analytic method determined by the historical materials, method using theory probability distribution, subjective probability method, and improved method using subjective probability estimated value, and Monte Carlo method, and so on. The actual distribution function can be obtained by Monte Carlo method.
(4)The non-probability methods are pointed out. According to the predecessor's exploration and main methods applied in the construction, the limitative method of“Normal state”is concluded. The method of the sensitive analysis is put forward according to the Process System Theory. Both methods are fit to determine the situations which is difficult to know the reliability probability and which is not necessary determine the reliability probability.
(5) The reliability of Condition Subsystem during the Construction Process is decided. This Subsystem is divided into five subsystems, such as artificial subsystem, construction machinery equipment subsystem, and material subsystem, method of construction subsystem and environment of construction subsystem. Firstly, the parametric count analysis method and the calculating method of reliability, correct degree and availability of artificial subsystem are decided. Secondly, the reliability data structure and parameter are established and reliability calculation matrix which is used to analyze the construction machinery equipment system is built too. Thirdly, the Markov method is brought forward to calculate the reliability of the material subsystem. Fourthly, the strain- intensity intervening model is applied to handle the reliability of construction method. It has been proved to be valid by a demonstration. Finally, the fuzzy reliability is applied to analyze the reliability of environment of construction subsystem. The triangle Raised-Mountain-Shaped Function is taken as an example.
(6) The main goals of quality, costs, progress and safety are considered comprehensively, and corresponding relational expression is built. According to the interrelation of the four goals, the calculating proceeding of reliability of goals and their cost relation is built. Then the cost validity analysis is carried out, and the controlling cost reliability model in construction organizing is set up. Finally, the Entropy Theory is applied to compute the reliability of goals system.
(7) According to the reliability principle of complex network system, a proper algorithm model is established to calculate the minimal path set by adjacent matrix. And on this basis, the BDD Algorithm is improved in the paper based on the theory of disjoint, and a new way to calculate the reliability of complex network system is proposed. The reliability of complex network system of construction can be worked out effectively by programming according to the algorithm the paper provided.
(8)The valuation standard of Construction System is set up in the paper. The valuation sectors, which applies fuzzy probability theory, are stated into 9 fuzzy language values, such as the most reliable, very reliable, reliable, more reliable, critical reliable, more unreliable, unreliable, very unreliable, and the most unreliable. And then these 9 sectors are turned into Fuzzy-Random Reliability Evaluation functions. Therefore, it obtains 9 fuzzy evaluation sectors, which is possible to provide the corresponding method and parameter for Construction System and each subsystem. And at last, the compound system coordination principle is pointed out.
Finally, some Yangtze River highway bridges, which apply the system reliability theory and the method in Construction System, are taken as examples.
(1)基于结构施工的状况与特点,根据系统工程原理和系统可靠性工程理论,提出了施工系统的可靠性概念及其可靠度定义。基于工程施工的特性和系统工程原理,施工系统可靠性是研究施工过程实现目标体系的可靠性。结构施工期可靠性的研究重点,是探索施工期如何保证结构按照设计所确定的结构使用期的可靠性。从行为功能和生产系统的目标看,确保结构可靠性的施工期施工质量的控制,仅是施工系统的质量控制目标。施工的目标体系建立在设计的功能上,因此,施工可靠性的定义既有结构可靠性的内含,又有结构可靠性的外延。同时由于设计与施工的性质不同,施工可靠性具有不同于结构可靠性的新的定义。
(2)明确了施工过程系统可靠性关系。建筑产品可以划分为建设项目、单项工程、单位工程、分部工程、分项工程。组成单项工程施工的单位工程,系统可靠性主要表现为串联关系;组成单位工程的分部工程,其系统可靠性主要表现为串并联混合关系;组成分部工程施工的分项工程,其系统可靠性主要为串并联混合关系。本文在分析施工过程子系统的可靠性计算原理和方法的基础上,构建了施工系统可靠度计算的金字塔模型。
(3)提出了施工过程可靠度的确定方法。施工过程可靠度的确定的基本方法主要包括:由历史资料确定的概率分析法、利用理论概率分布的计算方法、主观概率法、主观概率估计值的改善法、蒙特卡罗法等。采用蒙特卡罗法,可以选出比较符合实际的分布函数。
(4)提出了非概率的可靠性分析方法。在前人的探索与工程施工应用的诸多方法上,归纳总结出“正常状态”界定法,并依据过程系统理论与灵敏度分析原理,提出了灵敏度分析方法,它们适用于难以确定可靠性概率和工作上不需确定可靠性概率的状况。
(5)明确了施工过程条件子系统的可靠性。将条件子系统分为人为子系统、施工机械设备子系统、材料供应子系统、施工方法子系统和施工环境子系统。建立了人为失误参数的统计分析方法和人为子系统的可靠度、改正度和有效度的计算方法。运用数学解析法分析了施工机械设备系统的可靠性数据结构及参数估计,确立了施工机械设备子系统可靠度的计算矩阵。提出了用马尔可夫方法计算施工材料设备子系统的可靠度。运用应力-强度干涉模型处理施工方法的可靠性计算问题,通过示例说明了其适用性。采用模糊可靠度分析施工环境可靠性,结合示例说明了模糊可靠度的计算。
(6)构建了施工目标子系统的主要目标“质量、工期、安全、成本”的相互关系,建立了相应的关系式。并针对目标措施之间“互为独立、互为因果和既有互为独立又有互为因果”的三种关系状态,建立了施工过程目标可靠度的计算思路及其费用关系,进行了费用有效性分析,构建了施工过程组织的成本可靠性控制模型。提出了用熵权原理计算目标子系统的可靠度。
(7)根据复杂网络系统可靠性原理,建立了施工系统可靠性的算法模型,运用邻接矩阵法求解复杂网络系统的最小路集,根据不交化原理,改进了BDD算法,提出了复杂网络系统可靠度的不交化最小路集的实现新方法,可通过编制计算机程序,有效的计算复杂施工网络系统的可靠度。
(8)建立了施工系统可靠度的评价标准。用模糊数学方法将模糊语言“极可靠”、“很可靠”、“可靠”、“比较可靠”、“临界可靠”、“比较不可靠”、“不可靠”、“很不可靠”、“极不可靠”转化为模糊数学的隶属函数模型,从而得到九个模糊评价区间,为施工系统及其各个子系统的可靠度评价提供了相应的方法和参数依据,经实证分析论证了其适用性。并基于复合系统协调控制原理,提出了施工系统可靠性的协调控制思路。
最后,以某长江公路大桥施工为例,介绍了施工系统可靠性理论和方法的应用。
In the paper the Theory and Method of reliability in Construction System is studied based on the main achievement of the domestic and foreign study about the fundamental of reliability, and the following results are mainly obtained:
(1)According to the condition and characteristic of Structure Construction and the fundamentals of Systems Engineering and System Reliability, the conception of the reliability of Construction System is stated. Based on the characteristic of the construction and the fundamentals of Systems Engineering, the reliability of Construction System is referring to achieving the reliability of objective system during the construction process. The emphasis of studying the reliability of the construction is to seek after the reliability of how to ensure the lifetime decided in the design. According to the behavior function and the goal of production system, it is pointed out that ensuring the controlling of the quality of construction during the construction process of construction reliability is just the quality control target. Therefore, the conception of the construction reliability includes both connotation and extension of the structure reliability. Besides, it is different from the structure reliability because of the difference between design and construction.
(2)The connection of the reliability of the process system is analyzed. The products of construction can be divided into five parts, such as construction projects, monomial projects, unit projects, subsection projects and subentry projects. The system reliability of unit projects, which the monomial projects are made of, mainly performs for the series relations. The system reliability of subentry projects, which the subsection projects are made of, mainly performs for the series-parallel relations. The paper analyzes the computation principle and method of the reliability of Process Subsystem, and develops the Pyramid model which is used to compute the reliability of Construction System.
(3)It is pointed out that the methods of computing the reliability of Process system. The main methods include the followings: probability analytic method determined by the historical materials, method using theory probability distribution, subjective probability method, and improved method using subjective probability estimated value, and Monte Carlo method, and so on. The actual distribution function can be obtained by Monte Carlo method.
(4)The non-probability methods are pointed out. According to the predecessor's exploration and main methods applied in the construction, the limitative method of“Normal state”is concluded. The method of the sensitive analysis is put forward according to the Process System Theory. Both methods are fit to determine the situations which is difficult to know the reliability probability and which is not necessary determine the reliability probability.
(5) The reliability of Condition Subsystem during the Construction Process is decided. This Subsystem is divided into five subsystems, such as artificial subsystem, construction machinery equipment subsystem, and material subsystem, method of construction subsystem and environment of construction subsystem. Firstly, the parametric count analysis method and the calculating method of reliability, correct degree and availability of artificial subsystem are decided. Secondly, the reliability data structure and parameter are established and reliability calculation matrix which is used to analyze the construction machinery equipment system is built too. Thirdly, the Markov method is brought forward to calculate the reliability of the material subsystem. Fourthly, the strain- intensity intervening model is applied to handle the reliability of construction method. It has been proved to be valid by a demonstration. Finally, the fuzzy reliability is applied to analyze the reliability of environment of construction subsystem. The triangle Raised-Mountain-Shaped Function is taken as an example.
(6) The main goals of quality, costs, progress and safety are considered comprehensively, and corresponding relational expression is built. According to the interrelation of the four goals, the calculating proceeding of reliability of goals and their cost relation is built. Then the cost validity analysis is carried out, and the controlling cost reliability model in construction organizing is set up. Finally, the Entropy Theory is applied to compute the reliability of goals system.
(7) According to the reliability principle of complex network system, a proper algorithm model is established to calculate the minimal path set by adjacent matrix. And on this basis, the BDD Algorithm is improved in the paper based on the theory of disjoint, and a new way to calculate the reliability of complex network system is proposed. The reliability of complex network system of construction can be worked out effectively by programming according to the algorithm the paper provided.
(8)The valuation standard of Construction System is set up in the paper. The valuation sectors, which applies fuzzy probability theory, are stated into 9 fuzzy language values, such as the most reliable, very reliable, reliable, more reliable, critical reliable, more unreliable, unreliable, very unreliable, and the most unreliable. And then these 9 sectors are turned into Fuzzy-Random Reliability Evaluation functions. Therefore, it obtains 9 fuzzy evaluation sectors, which is possible to provide the corresponding method and parameter for Construction System and each subsystem. And at last, the compound system coordination principle is pointed out.
Finally, some Yangtze River highway bridges, which apply the system reliability theory and the method in Construction System, are taken as examples.
引文
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