公路工程项目风险动态管理方法与应用技术研究
|
摘要
工程项目作为集经济、技术、管理、组织各方面的综合性社会活动,它的各个方面都存在着不确定性,因此对工程项目迫切需要加强风险管理。采用风险管理在项目前期能使可行性研究阶段更深入、克服片面性,有利于科学决策;在项目实施阶段,可减少项目施工过程中的不确定性,为项目创造稳定、有序的工作环境,从而防止返工浪费、控制工程造价。在现代项目管理中,风险管理已成为国内外学术界和工程界的热点问题。本文主要以公路工程建设项目为研究对象,研究探索工程项目风险分析与管理的更为科学、合理的模式,即面向项目实施过程的、动态的全面风险管理方法。主要内容包括:
(1)结合工程实际,系统阐述了影响工程项目三大目标的主要风险因素,以及各因素的来源,根据先分类后识别的风险分类方法,提出了项目风险因素的多维特性描述方法。
(2)为了保证风险分析方法能尽可能全面反映与项目有关的各种风险信息,能够同时处理定量信息和定性信息,本文从风险因素分类的多角度、多层次出发,提出了风险因素的表格作业法。
(3)基于风险因素的多维特性,建立了评价风险因素优先度以及选择风险应对措施的层次分析法结构模型。
(4)鉴于工程项目风险管理的循环周期体现了项目风险管理的过程性和动态性,本文提出了一个面向过程的动态的公路工程项目全面风险管理体系框架,用系统的、动态的方法进行风险控制,以减少项目过程中的不确定性。
Engineering projects are social activities, which integrate with economy, technology, management, and organization. There are uncertainties in each respect of engineering projects, and it need to strengthen risk management urgently. Risk management can further the feasibility studies, overcome the one-sidedness, and benefit to the science decision at the earlier stage of a project. At project implementation stage, it also can reduce the uncertainty, create a steady, orderly working environment, and thus prevent redoing the same work and control the construction price. In the modern project management, risk management has already become the hot issue of domestic and international academia and project circle. This paper explores a more reasonable and applicable method for the risk management mainly in the highway project. An oriented-process and dynamic overall risk management was proposed. The main content includes:1. Combining project reality, the paper systematically explained the main risk factors and the source of them that influences the three major goals of project. A multi-attribute method was proposed to describe the project risk factors, according to the risk method of classification-identification.2. In order to guarantee the risk analytical method can reflect all kinds of risk information that related to the project in an all-round way as
much as possible, and can deal with both quantitative information and qualitative information at the same time. A risk identification table was put forward based on the classification of the risk factors.3. A risk rating sequencing and a structure model of AHP of counter-measure were set up, based on the multi-attribute of risk factors.4. Because the cycle of risk management can reflect the course and dynamics of risk management of the project. A course -oriented dynamic overall risk management system of highway project was put forward, using systematic and dynamic method to control the risk, and reducing the uncertainty during the process of the project.
(1)结合工程实际,系统阐述了影响工程项目三大目标的主要风险因素,以及各因素的来源,根据先分类后识别的风险分类方法,提出了项目风险因素的多维特性描述方法。
(2)为了保证风险分析方法能尽可能全面反映与项目有关的各种风险信息,能够同时处理定量信息和定性信息,本文从风险因素分类的多角度、多层次出发,提出了风险因素的表格作业法。
(3)基于风险因素的多维特性,建立了评价风险因素优先度以及选择风险应对措施的层次分析法结构模型。
(4)鉴于工程项目风险管理的循环周期体现了项目风险管理的过程性和动态性,本文提出了一个面向过程的动态的公路工程项目全面风险管理体系框架,用系统的、动态的方法进行风险控制,以减少项目过程中的不确定性。
Engineering projects are social activities, which integrate with economy, technology, management, and organization. There are uncertainties in each respect of engineering projects, and it need to strengthen risk management urgently. Risk management can further the feasibility studies, overcome the one-sidedness, and benefit to the science decision at the earlier stage of a project. At project implementation stage, it also can reduce the uncertainty, create a steady, orderly working environment, and thus prevent redoing the same work and control the construction price. In the modern project management, risk management has already become the hot issue of domestic and international academia and project circle. This paper explores a more reasonable and applicable method for the risk management mainly in the highway project. An oriented-process and dynamic overall risk management was proposed. The main content includes:1. Combining project reality, the paper systematically explained the main risk factors and the source of them that influences the three major goals of project. A multi-attribute method was proposed to describe the project risk factors, according to the risk method of classification-identification.2. In order to guarantee the risk analytical method can reflect all kinds of risk information that related to the project in an all-round way as
much as possible, and can deal with both quantitative information and qualitative information at the same time. A risk identification table was put forward based on the classification of the risk factors.3. A risk rating sequencing and a structure model of AHP of counter-measure were set up, based on the multi-attribute of risk factors.4. Because the cycle of risk management can reflect the course and dynamics of risk management of the project. A course -oriented dynamic overall risk management system of highway project was put forward, using systematic and dynamic method to control the risk, and reducing the uncertainty during the process of the project.
引文
[1] 谭红霞,王昌衡.展望我国公路建设的前景[J].中外公路,2003(2):1～3
[2] 董云,曾华.浅谈中国公路建设的现状和未来[J].交通科技与经济,2003(3):17～18
[3] 曹振歧.风险管理及面向对象的风险管理系统研究:[D].天津:天津大学,1996
[4] 张建设.面向过程的动态项目风险管理方法研究[D].天津:天津大学建筑工程学院,2002,18,6～71
[5] R.Max.Wideman, Project and Program Risk Management, Project Management Institute, USA,1992
[6] Robert N. Charette, Software Engineering Risk Analysis and Management. New York.McGraw-Hill Book Company, 1989
[7] 卢有杰,卢家仪.项目风险管理[M].北京:清华大学出版社,1998,
[8] 王丽萍,傅湘编著.洪灾风险及经济分析,武汉:武汉水利电力大学出版社,1999
[9] 天津大学经济管理学院,三峡工程经济风险分析及对策研究[研究报告],1995,18～19
[10] 王卓甫.工程项目风险管理:理论、方法与应用[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2002,153～178
[11] 郭仲伟.风险分析与决策[M].北京:机械工业出版社,1987
[12] 赵恒峰,邱菀华,王新哲.风险因子的模糊综合评判法[J].系统工程理论与实践,1997,7(7):93～96
[13] Jamal F Al-bahar, Keith C.Crandall, Systematic Risk Management Approach for Construction Projects, Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, ASCE, 1990,116(3):533～546
[14] 傅鸿源.工程项目风险评价方法的研究[J].系统工程理论与实践,1995,10(10):55～58
[15] He Zh. Risk Management for overseas construction projects, International Journal of Project Management, 1996, 14(3):185～186
[16] M Williams, The Two-Dimensionality of Project Risk, International Journal of Project Management, 1996, 14(3):185～186
[17] J.H.M. That, V. Carr, A Proposal for Construction Risk Assessment Using Fuzzy Logic, Construction Management and Economics, 2000, 18():491～500
[18] Roozbeh Kangari, Leland S. Riggs, Construction Risk Assessment by Linguistics, IEEE transactions on engineering management, 1989, 36(2):126～131
[19] 徐颖.风险决策的模糊数学模型[J].系统工程理论方法与应用,1995.4(1):75～77
[20] 曲海滨,雷星晖.证券公司目标风险成本的确定及控制方法研究[J].上海管理科学,2003(2):15～16
[21] 刘尔烈.国际工程管理概论[M].天津:天津大学出版社,2003.1
[22] 陈传德编.公路施工项目管理手册[M].北京:人民交通出版社,1998.8
[23] 宾雪峰.重庆市公路项目施工管理风险分析集对策研究[D].重庆:重庆大学土木工程学院,2002.11.2:17
[24] 危道军,李惠强.工程项目的风险管理[J].建材技术与应用,2003.5:57～58
[25] Steve J Simister, Usage and benefit of project risk analysis and management, International Journal of Project Management, 1994, 12(1): 5～8
[26] 赵国杰.工程经济学[M].天津:天津大学出版社,2003,3
[27] 宋善德.网络计划技术中网络图绘制的算法研究[J].华中理工大学学报,1998,26(6):69～72
[28] 吴唤群,唐莉,孙相军,莫连光.搭接施工网络工期优化研究[J].系统工程,2001(4):43～46
[29] 李林,李数丞,王道平.基于风险分析的项目工期的估算方法研究[J].系统工程,2001(5):77～81
[30] 李丽.工程项目全面风险管理的理论与方法研究[D].北京:北京工业大学管理科学与工程,2002.4.15
[31] 吴泽宁等.工程项目系统评价[M].郑州:黄河水利出版社,2002.9,35～66
[32] David B. Hertz Howard Thomas, Risk Analysis and its Application, John Wily & Sons, USA,1983
[33] 傅纪军.工程项目全面风险管理[D].重庆:重庆大学技术经济及管理,2002.1.1,30
[34] 程世平.公路工程项目投资方案风险评价方法探讨[J].云南交通科技,2001(6):24～25
[35] 焦李成.神经网络系统理论[M].西安:西安电子科技大学出版社,1992
[36] 杨俊琴.公路工程投标项目风险分析的人工神经网络模型[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2003.11,3(4):45～47
[37] 邵黎霞,戴文琰.人工神经网络方法在力学反问题研究中的应用[J].宁波高等专科学校学报,2002.12(4):40～44
[38] 秦寿康.综合评价原理与应用[M].北京:电子工业出版社,2003.6,209～215
[39] 丁香乾,石硕.层次分析法在项目风险管理中的应用[J].中国海洋大学学报,2004.1,34(1):97～102
[40] 雷胜强.国际工程风险管理与保险[M].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,1996
[41] 许谨良.风险管理[M].北京:中国金融出版社,2003.1.100～101
[42] 高军,刘先涛.工程项目风险管理对策的规划研究[J].科技管理研究.2003.3.66～69
[43] 王莲芬,许树柏.层次分析法引论[M].北京:中国人民人学出版社,1990
[44] 拉尔夫.L.克莱茵,欧文.S.路丁.减低项目风险.唐健.科文(香港)出版有限公司,1999.11～13
[45] Stephen C Ward, Chris B Chapman, Risk-management perspective on the project lifecycle, International Journal of Project Management, 1095, 13(3): 145～149
[46] Chris Chapman, Project risks analysis and management PRAM the generic process, International Journal of Project Management, 1997, 15(5): 273～281
[47] 贾元华,董平如.高速公路建设与管理[M].北京:北方交通大学出版社,2002.8,218～230
[2] 董云,曾华.浅谈中国公路建设的现状和未来[J].交通科技与经济,2003(3):17～18
[3] 曹振歧.风险管理及面向对象的风险管理系统研究:[D].天津:天津大学,1996
[4] 张建设.面向过程的动态项目风险管理方法研究[D].天津:天津大学建筑工程学院,2002,18,6～71
[5] R.Max.Wideman, Project and Program Risk Management, Project Management Institute, USA,1992
[6] Robert N. Charette, Software Engineering Risk Analysis and Management. New York.McGraw-Hill Book Company, 1989
[7] 卢有杰,卢家仪.项目风险管理[M].北京:清华大学出版社,1998,
[8] 王丽萍,傅湘编著.洪灾风险及经济分析,武汉:武汉水利电力大学出版社,1999
[9] 天津大学经济管理学院,三峡工程经济风险分析及对策研究[研究报告],1995,18～19
[10] 王卓甫.工程项目风险管理:理论、方法与应用[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2002,153～178
[11] 郭仲伟.风险分析与决策[M].北京:机械工业出版社,1987
[12] 赵恒峰,邱菀华,王新哲.风险因子的模糊综合评判法[J].系统工程理论与实践,1997,7(7):93～96
[13] Jamal F Al-bahar, Keith C.Crandall, Systematic Risk Management Approach for Construction Projects, Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, ASCE, 1990,116(3):533～546
[14] 傅鸿源.工程项目风险评价方法的研究[J].系统工程理论与实践,1995,10(10):55～58
[15] He Zh. Risk Management for overseas construction projects, International Journal of Project Management, 1996, 14(3):185～186
[16] M Williams, The Two-Dimensionality of Project Risk, International Journal of Project Management, 1996, 14(3):185～186
[17] J.H.M. That, V. Carr, A Proposal for Construction Risk Assessment Using Fuzzy Logic, Construction Management and Economics, 2000, 18():491～500
[18] Roozbeh Kangari, Leland S. Riggs, Construction Risk Assessment by Linguistics, IEEE transactions on engineering management, 1989, 36(2):126～131
[19] 徐颖.风险决策的模糊数学模型[J].系统工程理论方法与应用,1995.4(1):75～77
[20] 曲海滨,雷星晖.证券公司目标风险成本的确定及控制方法研究[J].上海管理科学,2003(2):15～16
[21] 刘尔烈.国际工程管理概论[M].天津:天津大学出版社,2003.1
[22] 陈传德编.公路施工项目管理手册[M].北京:人民交通出版社,1998.8
[23] 宾雪峰.重庆市公路项目施工管理风险分析集对策研究[D].重庆:重庆大学土木工程学院,2002.11.2:17
[24] 危道军,李惠强.工程项目的风险管理[J].建材技术与应用,2003.5:57～58
[25] Steve J Simister, Usage and benefit of project risk analysis and management, International Journal of Project Management, 1994, 12(1): 5～8
[26] 赵国杰.工程经济学[M].天津:天津大学出版社,2003,3
[27] 宋善德.网络计划技术中网络图绘制的算法研究[J].华中理工大学学报,1998,26(6):69～72
[28] 吴唤群,唐莉,孙相军,莫连光.搭接施工网络工期优化研究[J].系统工程,2001(4):43～46
[29] 李林,李数丞,王道平.基于风险分析的项目工期的估算方法研究[J].系统工程,2001(5):77～81
[30] 李丽.工程项目全面风险管理的理论与方法研究[D].北京:北京工业大学管理科学与工程,2002.4.15
[31] 吴泽宁等.工程项目系统评价[M].郑州:黄河水利出版社,2002.9,35～66
[32] David B. Hertz Howard Thomas, Risk Analysis and its Application, John Wily & Sons, USA,1983
[33] 傅纪军.工程项目全面风险管理[D].重庆:重庆大学技术经济及管理,2002.1.1,30
[34] 程世平.公路工程项目投资方案风险评价方法探讨[J].云南交通科技,2001(6):24～25
[35] 焦李成.神经网络系统理论[M].西安:西安电子科技大学出版社,1992
[36] 杨俊琴.公路工程投标项目风险分析的人工神经网络模型[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2003.11,3(4):45～47
[37] 邵黎霞,戴文琰.人工神经网络方法在力学反问题研究中的应用[J].宁波高等专科学校学报,2002.12(4):40～44
[38] 秦寿康.综合评价原理与应用[M].北京:电子工业出版社,2003.6,209～215
[39] 丁香乾,石硕.层次分析法在项目风险管理中的应用[J].中国海洋大学学报,2004.1,34(1):97～102
[40] 雷胜强.国际工程风险管理与保险[M].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,1996
[41] 许谨良.风险管理[M].北京:中国金融出版社,2003.1.100～101
[42] 高军,刘先涛.工程项目风险管理对策的规划研究[J].科技管理研究.2003.3.66～69
[43] 王莲芬,许树柏.层次分析法引论[M].北京:中国人民人学出版社,1990
[44] 拉尔夫.L.克莱茵,欧文.S.路丁.减低项目风险.唐健.科文(香港)出版有限公司,1999.11～13
[45] Stephen C Ward, Chris B Chapman, Risk-management perspective on the project lifecycle, International Journal of Project Management, 1095, 13(3): 145～149
[46] Chris Chapman, Project risks analysis and management PRAM the generic process, International Journal of Project Management, 1997, 15(5): 273～281
[47] 贾元华,董平如.高速公路建设与管理[M].北京:北方交通大学出版社,2002.8,218～230