株洲电业局变电站建设项目风险管理研究
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摘要
20世纪90年代以来,我国项目管理的学术研究有了很大的进展,被广泛应用于各行各业。株洲地区电网建设也在1998年就实行了项目管理,但项目风险管理却没有得到足够的重视,使得部分项目的投资存在一定的失误,不仅延误了项目的投运时间,同时还造成了建设成本的大幅增加。
为了规避并减轻株洲电业局变电站建设项目的风险,本文从风险识别、风险量化、风险评估、风险应对等多个角度出发进行较为深入的研究,得到了具有一定价值的结论。
首先,本文从株洲电业局变电站建设项目管理现状及风险源预测入手,分析了影响项目建设的主要风险因素,并对各种风险因素进行归纳和分类,形成了株洲电业局变电站建设项目风险分析体系。
然后,利用统计学方法,以株洲电业局变电站建设项目风险案例统计和专家调查结果为依据,研究了各类风险因素对项目的影响程度,对各种风险因素对项目的影响等级进行了评估,并进一步探讨了株洲电业局变电站建设项目各类风险的应对措施。
最后,在上述研究的基础上,针对黄兰变电站建设项目做了一个具体剖析。
本文以变电站建设项目与风险管理为研究目标,探索了株洲电业局变电站建设项目一些迷惑的问题,对完善变电站建设项目管理,具有一定的理论价值和实践意义。
Since the nineties of the 20th century,the academic research of project management has made considerable headway in our country, and has been used in every trade extensively. This adademic also has been applied in construction of electric net of Zhuzhou since 1998. However, the project risks do not get an enough value, not only result in the increment of construction cost, but also delay the schedule.
In order to ease the project risk of transformer substation construction projects for example, studied the risk identifies in Zhuzhou, the article researched on the risk identifies, risk assessment, risk control etc.
First, the article begins with the project risk source estimatin of the transformer substation in Zhuzhou. It ananlyzed the main risk factor of the project, and carried on inducing to various risk analysis system classification, formed transformer substation construction project risk analysis system.
Then, the article makes use of statistics methods, based on the statistics of project risk cases of the transformer substation and results after expeerts investigating, studied the factor's influence to project. The article evaluateed the influence grade of transformer substation construction projects and discussed treament of transformer substation construction project risk based on the above-mentioned research.
Finally, the article analysied Huanglan substation project in base of above-mentioned.
The article takes the substation construction project and risk management as a study target , investigating some interrogative problems of the transformer substation construction project in Zhuzhou. It has certain value and practices meaning to perfect project management of substation construction.
为了规避并减轻株洲电业局变电站建设项目的风险,本文从风险识别、风险量化、风险评估、风险应对等多个角度出发进行较为深入的研究,得到了具有一定价值的结论。
首先,本文从株洲电业局变电站建设项目管理现状及风险源预测入手,分析了影响项目建设的主要风险因素,并对各种风险因素进行归纳和分类,形成了株洲电业局变电站建设项目风险分析体系。
然后,利用统计学方法,以株洲电业局变电站建设项目风险案例统计和专家调查结果为依据,研究了各类风险因素对项目的影响程度,对各种风险因素对项目的影响等级进行了评估,并进一步探讨了株洲电业局变电站建设项目各类风险的应对措施。
最后,在上述研究的基础上,针对黄兰变电站建设项目做了一个具体剖析。
本文以变电站建设项目与风险管理为研究目标,探索了株洲电业局变电站建设项目一些迷惑的问题,对完善变电站建设项目管理,具有一定的理论价值和实践意义。
Since the nineties of the 20th century,the academic research of project management has made considerable headway in our country, and has been used in every trade extensively. This adademic also has been applied in construction of electric net of Zhuzhou since 1998. However, the project risks do not get an enough value, not only result in the increment of construction cost, but also delay the schedule.
In order to ease the project risk of transformer substation construction projects for example, studied the risk identifies in Zhuzhou, the article researched on the risk identifies, risk assessment, risk control etc.
First, the article begins with the project risk source estimatin of the transformer substation in Zhuzhou. It ananlyzed the main risk factor of the project, and carried on inducing to various risk analysis system classification, formed transformer substation construction project risk analysis system.
Then, the article makes use of statistics methods, based on the statistics of project risk cases of the transformer substation and results after expeerts investigating, studied the factor's influence to project. The article evaluateed the influence grade of transformer substation construction projects and discussed treament of transformer substation construction project risk based on the above-mentioned research.
Finally, the article analysied Huanglan substation project in base of above-mentioned.
The article takes the substation construction project and risk management as a study target , investigating some interrogative problems of the transformer substation construction project in Zhuzhou. It has certain value and practices meaning to perfect project management of substation construction.
引文
[1]白思俊.现代项目管理.北京:机械工业出版社,2004,161-162
[2]左美云.实用项目管理与图解.北京:清华大学出版社,2002,10-11
[3]任平均.公司——如何提高组织的项目管理能力.天津:南开大学出版社,2004,30
[4]白思俊.项目管理案例教程.北京:机械工业出版社,2005,41-43
[5]姚玲珍.工程项目管理学.上海:上海财经大学出版社,2003,352-355
[6]卢有杰,卢家仪.项目风险管理.北京:清华大学出版社,1998,22-23
[7]符志民.航天项目风险管理.北京:机械工业出版社,2005,76-80
[8]邓铁军.工程风险管理.北京:人民交通出版社,2004.6,65-69
[9]邱苑华.现代项目风险管理方法与实践.北京:科学版社,2003,11-15
[10]Paul S.Royer.项目风险管理:一种主动的策略.北京:机械工业出版社,2005,28-32
[11]杰克·吉多,詹姆思P·克莱门斯.成功的项目管理.北京:机械工业出版社,1999,69-70
[12]施应玲.风险逻辑树用于电力企业风险识别与分析.电力技术经济,2003,15(6):42-44
[13]张炯.蒙特卡洛法应用于房地产开发项目可行性研究.扬州大学学报(自然科学版),2004,7(2):31-33
[14]刘艳玲.项目风险预警系统的构建.建筑管理现代化,2003,73:25-29
[15]邱扬,曹俊虎.对强化投资项目风险管理的思考.青海科技,2000,7(2):7-8
[16]Stephen G.MacDonell,Martin J.Shepperd.Combining techniques to optimize effort predictions in software project management.Journal of Systems & Software,2003,66(2):91-98
[17]Andrew J.Czuchry,Mahmoud M.Yasin.Managing the project management process.Industrial Management & Data System,2003,103(2):39-46
[18]Michael J.Pennock,Yacov Y.Haimes.Principles and guidelines for project risk management.System Engineering,2002,5(2):89-108
[19]Mahmoud M.Yasin,Andrew J.Czuchry,Jafar Alavi.Project management practice:Then and now.Thunderbird International Business Review,2002,44(2):253-262
[20]Matthew J.Liberatore,Bruce Pollack-Johnson,Colleen A.Smith.Project Management in Constrution:Software Use and Research Directions.Journal of Construction Engineering and Management,2002,128(2):101-107
[21]Diana White,Joyce Fortune.Current practice in project management---an empirical study.International Journal of Project Management,2002,20(1):1-11
[22]Jeffrey K.Pinto.Project Management 2002.Research Technology Management,2002,45(2):22-37
[23]Hodgson D.Disciplining the Professional:The Case of Project Management.Journal of Management Studies,2002,39(6):803-821
[24]Terry Williams.The contribution of mathematical modelling to the practice of project management,2003,14(1):3-30
[25]David James Bryde.Modelling project management performance.International Journal of Quality & Reliability Management,2003,20(2):229-254
[26]David James Bryde.Project management concepts,methods and application.International Journal of Operation & Production Mnagement,2003,23(7):775-793
[27]任继尧,樊相如.项目风险管理分析.企业技术开发,2005,24(4):36-37
[28]单汨源.实施企业信息化须注重基础工作.经贸导刊,2001
[29]任钟淳,萧能意,韩涛.电力工程项目管理的模式探讨.工程建设项目管理与总承包,2004,14(1):25-30
[30]赵篙正,靳铭.项目管理信息系统及其作用.榆林高等专科学校学报,2003,13(2):28-31
[31]孙建平,李胜.蒙特卡洛模拟在城市基础设施项目风险评估中的应用.上海经济研究,2005,2:92-93
[32]吕建平.2005年我国电网发展趋势及政策取向.供电企业管理.2005,2:4-9
[33]电气设计网.我国电网建设现状分析.分析与观察,2005,45:6-7
[34]王旭红.中小企业投资项目风险识别和决策技术选择.经济理论与实践,2005,26(135):62-63
[35]高维义,彭华涛.项目风险评估的二阶段评价法.武汉理工大学学报,2004,26(6):238-239
[36]康国恩.通过P3项目管理软件浅析电力施工企业的MIS对象.电力建设,2004,25(3):61-64
[37]李学明.谈项目风险管理.贵州工业大学学报(社会科学版),2004,6(6):30-32
[38]谢群.电力建设施工企业面临的难题及对策.广西电力工程,2000,1:48
[39]张国兴,胡绍兰.项目风险监控研究.基建优化,2005,26(3):30-31
[40]王玺,张平.试论项目风险管理中的定量分析方法.天津工业大学学报,2001,20(6):79-82
[41]于波.我国电网建设业主项目管理研究:[大连理工大学硕士学位论文].大连.大连理工大学,2002,5-6
[2]左美云.实用项目管理与图解.北京:清华大学出版社,2002,10-11
[3]任平均.公司——如何提高组织的项目管理能力.天津:南开大学出版社,2004,30
[4]白思俊.项目管理案例教程.北京:机械工业出版社,2005,41-43
[5]姚玲珍.工程项目管理学.上海:上海财经大学出版社,2003,352-355
[6]卢有杰,卢家仪.项目风险管理.北京:清华大学出版社,1998,22-23
[7]符志民.航天项目风险管理.北京:机械工业出版社,2005,76-80
[8]邓铁军.工程风险管理.北京:人民交通出版社,2004.6,65-69
[9]邱苑华.现代项目风险管理方法与实践.北京:科学版社,2003,11-15
[10]Paul S.Royer.项目风险管理:一种主动的策略.北京:机械工业出版社,2005,28-32
[11]杰克·吉多,詹姆思P·克莱门斯.成功的项目管理.北京:机械工业出版社,1999,69-70
[12]施应玲.风险逻辑树用于电力企业风险识别与分析.电力技术经济,2003,15(6):42-44
[13]张炯.蒙特卡洛法应用于房地产开发项目可行性研究.扬州大学学报(自然科学版),2004,7(2):31-33
[14]刘艳玲.项目风险预警系统的构建.建筑管理现代化,2003,73:25-29
[15]邱扬,曹俊虎.对强化投资项目风险管理的思考.青海科技,2000,7(2):7-8
[16]Stephen G.MacDonell,Martin J.Shepperd.Combining techniques to optimize effort predictions in software project management.Journal of Systems & Software,2003,66(2):91-98
[17]Andrew J.Czuchry,Mahmoud M.Yasin.Managing the project management process.Industrial Management & Data System,2003,103(2):39-46
[18]Michael J.Pennock,Yacov Y.Haimes.Principles and guidelines for project risk management.System Engineering,2002,5(2):89-108
[19]Mahmoud M.Yasin,Andrew J.Czuchry,Jafar Alavi.Project management practice:Then and now.Thunderbird International Business Review,2002,44(2):253-262
[20]Matthew J.Liberatore,Bruce Pollack-Johnson,Colleen A.Smith.Project Management in Constrution:Software Use and Research Directions.Journal of Construction Engineering and Management,2002,128(2):101-107
[21]Diana White,Joyce Fortune.Current practice in project management---an empirical study.International Journal of Project Management,2002,20(1):1-11
[22]Jeffrey K.Pinto.Project Management 2002.Research Technology Management,2002,45(2):22-37
[23]Hodgson D.Disciplining the Professional:The Case of Project Management.Journal of Management Studies,2002,39(6):803-821
[24]Terry Williams.The contribution of mathematical modelling to the practice of project management,2003,14(1):3-30
[25]David James Bryde.Modelling project management performance.International Journal of Quality & Reliability Management,2003,20(2):229-254
[26]David James Bryde.Project management concepts,methods and application.International Journal of Operation & Production Mnagement,2003,23(7):775-793
[27]任继尧,樊相如.项目风险管理分析.企业技术开发,2005,24(4):36-37
[28]单汨源.实施企业信息化须注重基础工作.经贸导刊,2001
[29]任钟淳,萧能意,韩涛.电力工程项目管理的模式探讨.工程建设项目管理与总承包,2004,14(1):25-30
[30]赵篙正,靳铭.项目管理信息系统及其作用.榆林高等专科学校学报,2003,13(2):28-31
[31]孙建平,李胜.蒙特卡洛模拟在城市基础设施项目风险评估中的应用.上海经济研究,2005,2:92-93
[32]吕建平.2005年我国电网发展趋势及政策取向.供电企业管理.2005,2:4-9
[33]电气设计网.我国电网建设现状分析.分析与观察,2005,45:6-7
[34]王旭红.中小企业投资项目风险识别和决策技术选择.经济理论与实践,2005,26(135):62-63
[35]高维义,彭华涛.项目风险评估的二阶段评价法.武汉理工大学学报,2004,26(6):238-239
[36]康国恩.通过P3项目管理软件浅析电力施工企业的MIS对象.电力建设,2004,25(3):61-64
[37]李学明.谈项目风险管理.贵州工业大学学报(社会科学版),2004,6(6):30-32
[38]谢群.电力建设施工企业面临的难题及对策.广西电力工程,2000,1:48
[39]张国兴,胡绍兰.项目风险监控研究.基建优化,2005,26(3):30-31
[40]王玺,张平.试论项目风险管理中的定量分析方法.天津工业大学学报,2001,20(6):79-82
[41]于波.我国电网建设业主项目管理研究:[大连理工大学硕士学位论文].大连.大连理工大学,2002,5-6