基于三维海洋生态动力学模式的莱州湾氮、磷营养盐环境容量研究
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摘要
近年来，随着莱州湾沿岸工、农业的发展和人口的增长，入海河流携带的营养盐不断增多，导致莱州湾生态环境严重受损，具体表现为湾内海水的富营养化不断加重、赤潮频发，产卵场受到破坏，主要经济鱼类和渤海对虾资源严重衰退。依照中国的国情，立即停止营养盐的排放并不现实，应结合海水的环境容量进行营养盐点源排放的合理规划，以减小其对海域环境的危害。本文在前人研究的基础上建立了计算非保守物质环境容量的方法，并将该方法成功应用到了水动力较强、面积较大的莱州湾海域。
进行莱州湾氮、磷营养盐环境容量计算的基础是生态动力学模式，本文通过建立一个基于PIC（Particle-In-Cell）粒子追踪方法的N-P-Z-D（营养盐-浮游植物-浮游动物-碎屑）生态模式，模拟分析了莱州湾无机氮（DIN）、无机磷（DIP）和浮游植物的大面分布特征与季节变化特征，并研究了21世纪初莱州湾的营养盐限制问题以及黄河和小清河输入的营养盐对莱州湾生态系统的作用。
经过分析发现在莱州湾海域，比较适合的环境容量计算方法是排海通量最优化法。在使用该方法计算污染物某段时间的环境容量时，必须保证这段时间内目标海域对于污染物存在确定的响应系数场。由于氮、磷营养盐的分布具有明显的季节变化特征，其响应系数场也相应地随时间不断发生变化，不可能最终趋于稳定、获得确定的响应系数场，从而无法直接计算出营养盐的环境容量。
为获得确定的响应系数场，本文分别选取满足排海通量最优化法适用条件的营养盐月平均浓度场及月最高浓度场数据，依次计算出莱州湾海域每个月的营养盐响应系数场，并进一步使用排海通量最优化法求解出营养盐的月环境容量。根据月平均浓度场计算出的响应系数场为线性，符合线性规划法的前提假设；而根据月最高浓度场计算出的响应系数场包含非线性部分，不能采用线性规划法而必须使用非线性规划法进行环境容量的计算。
由于每个月浓度超过月平均浓度的天数比较多，经验证发现，即使严格按照月平均浓度场计算出的环境容量进行总量控制，仍将严重破坏海域生态环境，所以不应选用月平均浓度场而应采用月最高浓度场数据进行非保守物质环境容量的计算，以更好地保护海域生态系统。即对于氮、磷等非保守物质，应该使用非线性规划法进行海域环境容量的计算。
氮、磷营养盐之间相互影响、此消彼长，当氮（或磷）的浓度处于不同状态时，相应的磷（或氮）的环境容量是不一样的。本文旨在探讨计算非保守物质环境容量的方法，为简化数值计算量，将保持磷（或氮）的排放现状不变，计算相应的莱州湾氮（或磷）的环境容量和剩余环境容量。根据渤海近岸海域主要海洋功能区划的要求，莱州湾内五个点源附近的海域都应满足二类水质要求。对于21世纪初莱州湾的营养盐环境容量，使用非线性规划法的最终计算结果为，在保持DIP排放现状不变的情况下，莱州湾DIN年环境容量为21843吨/年，剩余年环境容量为-8264吨/年，需要减少点源DIN的排放量；在保持DIN排放现状不变的情况下，莱州湾DIP年环境容量为1794吨/年，剩余年环境容量达1485吨/年，可继续容纳部分DIP的排放。
最后，本文探讨了不同水动力条件对莱州湾生态系统以及营养盐环境容量的影响。黄河水动力条件在不同情况下对湾内生态系统和营养盐环境容量的影响不同：当黄河输入莱州湾的营养盐通量不变时，黄河的强水动力条件能限制和削弱莱州湾的富营养化状态；而当黄河输入莱州湾水体中的营养盐浓度不变时，黄河的弱水动力条件能限制和削弱莱州湾内的富营养化状态。可以利用黄河水动力条件及其营养盐的输入量，抑制并改善莱州湾的富营养化现象。另外，模式考虑了正压状态、正压潮（正压状态下只考虑潮的作用）状态和关闭风场对莱州湾生态系统和环境容量的影响，结果表明，无风场作用和正压潮状态都将低估莱州湾的DIN浓度，而正压状态则会高估湾内DIN的浓度。
In recent years, a large amount of nutrients is discharged into the Laizhou Bay byrivers with the development of the country’s economy. As it strongly enhances thegrowth of the phytoplanktons, the ecosystem of the Laizhou Bay could be destroyedby the eutrophication status and its developing trend. According to our country’scondition, cutting off all the discharges of the nutrients into the sea is unpractical. Inorder to reduce the damage to the marine environment, the nutrients discharges shouldbe optimized with the reasonable analysis and assessment of the nutrientsEnvironmental Capacity (EC) in the sea. The innovations in the thesis would be theestablishment of the EC calculational method of the nonconservative substance andthe successful application of the newly developed method on the bay.
The nutrients EC of the Laizhou Bay should be calculated based on an ecosystemdynamical model. And the PIC (Particle-In-Cell) method is used in the three-dimensional ecosystem model, which is based on the N-P-Z-D (Nutrients-Phytoplankton-Zooplankton-Detritus) module. Compared with the observed data, theannual cycle of the nutrients and phytoplankton (PPT) in the bay is successfullyreproduced by the new model. In addition, the spatial and seasonal distributions of thenutrients and PPT in the bay are revealed using the model results. The studies of thenutrients limitation in2000s and the effects of the Yellow River and the XiaoqingheRiver on the ecosystem in the bay are also discussed.
Recently, the most popular EC calculation method is the discharge optimizationmethod. The ascertained response factor field of the research area should be providedin the optimization method. As the specific seasonal variability of the nutrients existsin the bay, the corresponding nutrients response factor field changes over time. As a result, the nutrients EC couldn’t be directly calculated by the discharge optimizationmethod.
To obtain the ascertained nutrients response factor field, the monthly averagednutrients concentration data and the monthly maximum nutrients concentration dataare adopted respectively, which both meet the applicable condition of the optimizationmethod. Both of the data are used to obtain the nutrients response factor field, andthen calculate the nutrients EC. The results show that the linear programming methodcould be used with the monthly averaged concentration field, while the nonlinearprogramming method would be used with the monthly maximum concentration field.
In our model, there is about half a month’s time that the daily concentrationexceeds the monthly averaged concentration. Under this condition, even though thenutrients discharge is arranged according to the nutrients EC, which is obtained fromthe monthly mean concentration field, the ecosystem of the bay can still be destroyed.Therefore the monthly maximum concentration field is used to calculate the respondfactor field. In other words, the nonlinear programming method should be used tocalculate the EC of the nonconservative substance, including the nutrients.
There are interactional effects between the DIN and DIP. If the DIN (or DIP) inthe bay is in different concentration conditions, the corresponding DIP (or DIN) ECmay be different, which is a complex process. The simplified means are adopted, asthe point of this thesis is to discuss how to replace the linear programming with thenonlinear programming. So in the condition of keeping the DIP (or DIN) dischargeunchanged, the corresponding DIN (or DIP) EC in the bay is calculated. Based on themarine functional division in the Bohai Sea, the water quality near all the pointsources should be Grade II. The EC and SEC (Surplus EC) of the nutrients in the bayare calculated using the nonlinear programming. In the condition of keeping the DIPdischarge unchanged, the corresponding DIN EC in the bay is21843t/a, while theSEC is-8264t/a, which means the DIN discharge should be restricted. In the conditionof keeping the DIN discharge unchanged, the corresponding DIP EC in the bay is1794t/a, and the SEC is1485t/a, which means more DIP could be discharged into the bay.
In the end, the effects of the different hydrodynamic conditions on the ecosystemand the nutrients EC of the Laizhou Bay are also discussed. Strong hydrodynamiccondition of the Yellow River can reduce the eutrophication of the bay, when thefluxes of the discharged nutrients from the Yellow River keep unchanged. Meanwhile,weak hydrodynamic condition of the Yellow River can also reduce the eutrophicationof the bay, while the nutrients concentrations of the discharged water amounts fromthe Yellow River keep unchanged. It means that it is possible to improve theenvironmental quality of the Laizhou Bay by controlling the hydrodynamic conditionand the nutrients discharge of the Yellow River. In addition, the DIN concentration ofthe bay would be undervalued with the barotropic model, in which only the tides areconsidered. While the DIN concentration of the bay would be overestimated with thebarotropic model. Also, the DIN concentration of the bay would decrease if no wind isincluded in the model.
进行莱州湾氮、磷营养盐环境容量计算的基础是生态动力学模式，本文通过建立一个基于PIC（Particle-In-Cell）粒子追踪方法的N-P-Z-D（营养盐-浮游植物-浮游动物-碎屑）生态模式，模拟分析了莱州湾无机氮（DIN）、无机磷（DIP）和浮游植物的大面分布特征与季节变化特征，并研究了21世纪初莱州湾的营养盐限制问题以及黄河和小清河输入的营养盐对莱州湾生态系统的作用。
经过分析发现在莱州湾海域，比较适合的环境容量计算方法是排海通量最优化法。在使用该方法计算污染物某段时间的环境容量时，必须保证这段时间内目标海域对于污染物存在确定的响应系数场。由于氮、磷营养盐的分布具有明显的季节变化特征，其响应系数场也相应地随时间不断发生变化，不可能最终趋于稳定、获得确定的响应系数场，从而无法直接计算出营养盐的环境容量。
为获得确定的响应系数场，本文分别选取满足排海通量最优化法适用条件的营养盐月平均浓度场及月最高浓度场数据，依次计算出莱州湾海域每个月的营养盐响应系数场，并进一步使用排海通量最优化法求解出营养盐的月环境容量。根据月平均浓度场计算出的响应系数场为线性，符合线性规划法的前提假设；而根据月最高浓度场计算出的响应系数场包含非线性部分，不能采用线性规划法而必须使用非线性规划法进行环境容量的计算。
由于每个月浓度超过月平均浓度的天数比较多，经验证发现，即使严格按照月平均浓度场计算出的环境容量进行总量控制，仍将严重破坏海域生态环境，所以不应选用月平均浓度场而应采用月最高浓度场数据进行非保守物质环境容量的计算，以更好地保护海域生态系统。即对于氮、磷等非保守物质，应该使用非线性规划法进行海域环境容量的计算。
氮、磷营养盐之间相互影响、此消彼长，当氮（或磷）的浓度处于不同状态时，相应的磷（或氮）的环境容量是不一样的。本文旨在探讨计算非保守物质环境容量的方法，为简化数值计算量，将保持磷（或氮）的排放现状不变，计算相应的莱州湾氮（或磷）的环境容量和剩余环境容量。根据渤海近岸海域主要海洋功能区划的要求，莱州湾内五个点源附近的海域都应满足二类水质要求。对于21世纪初莱州湾的营养盐环境容量，使用非线性规划法的最终计算结果为，在保持DIP排放现状不变的情况下，莱州湾DIN年环境容量为21843吨/年，剩余年环境容量为-8264吨/年，需要减少点源DIN的排放量；在保持DIN排放现状不变的情况下，莱州湾DIP年环境容量为1794吨/年，剩余年环境容量达1485吨/年，可继续容纳部分DIP的排放。
最后，本文探讨了不同水动力条件对莱州湾生态系统以及营养盐环境容量的影响。黄河水动力条件在不同情况下对湾内生态系统和营养盐环境容量的影响不同：当黄河输入莱州湾的营养盐通量不变时，黄河的强水动力条件能限制和削弱莱州湾的富营养化状态；而当黄河输入莱州湾水体中的营养盐浓度不变时，黄河的弱水动力条件能限制和削弱莱州湾内的富营养化状态。可以利用黄河水动力条件及其营养盐的输入量，抑制并改善莱州湾的富营养化现象。另外，模式考虑了正压状态、正压潮（正压状态下只考虑潮的作用）状态和关闭风场对莱州湾生态系统和环境容量的影响，结果表明，无风场作用和正压潮状态都将低估莱州湾的DIN浓度，而正压状态则会高估湾内DIN的浓度。
In recent years, a large amount of nutrients is discharged into the Laizhou Bay byrivers with the development of the country’s economy. As it strongly enhances thegrowth of the phytoplanktons, the ecosystem of the Laizhou Bay could be destroyedby the eutrophication status and its developing trend. According to our country’scondition, cutting off all the discharges of the nutrients into the sea is unpractical. Inorder to reduce the damage to the marine environment, the nutrients discharges shouldbe optimized with the reasonable analysis and assessment of the nutrientsEnvironmental Capacity (EC) in the sea. The innovations in the thesis would be theestablishment of the EC calculational method of the nonconservative substance andthe successful application of the newly developed method on the bay.
The nutrients EC of the Laizhou Bay should be calculated based on an ecosystemdynamical model. And the PIC (Particle-In-Cell) method is used in the three-dimensional ecosystem model, which is based on the N-P-Z-D (Nutrients-Phytoplankton-Zooplankton-Detritus) module. Compared with the observed data, theannual cycle of the nutrients and phytoplankton (PPT) in the bay is successfullyreproduced by the new model. In addition, the spatial and seasonal distributions of thenutrients and PPT in the bay are revealed using the model results. The studies of thenutrients limitation in2000s and the effects of the Yellow River and the XiaoqingheRiver on the ecosystem in the bay are also discussed.
Recently, the most popular EC calculation method is the discharge optimizationmethod. The ascertained response factor field of the research area should be providedin the optimization method. As the specific seasonal variability of the nutrients existsin the bay, the corresponding nutrients response factor field changes over time. As a result, the nutrients EC couldn’t be directly calculated by the discharge optimizationmethod.
To obtain the ascertained nutrients response factor field, the monthly averagednutrients concentration data and the monthly maximum nutrients concentration dataare adopted respectively, which both meet the applicable condition of the optimizationmethod. Both of the data are used to obtain the nutrients response factor field, andthen calculate the nutrients EC. The results show that the linear programming methodcould be used with the monthly averaged concentration field, while the nonlinearprogramming method would be used with the monthly maximum concentration field.
In our model, there is about half a month’s time that the daily concentrationexceeds the monthly averaged concentration. Under this condition, even though thenutrients discharge is arranged according to the nutrients EC, which is obtained fromthe monthly mean concentration field, the ecosystem of the bay can still be destroyed.Therefore the monthly maximum concentration field is used to calculate the respondfactor field. In other words, the nonlinear programming method should be used tocalculate the EC of the nonconservative substance, including the nutrients.
There are interactional effects between the DIN and DIP. If the DIN (or DIP) inthe bay is in different concentration conditions, the corresponding DIP (or DIN) ECmay be different, which is a complex process. The simplified means are adopted, asthe point of this thesis is to discuss how to replace the linear programming with thenonlinear programming. So in the condition of keeping the DIP (or DIN) dischargeunchanged, the corresponding DIN (or DIP) EC in the bay is calculated. Based on themarine functional division in the Bohai Sea, the water quality near all the pointsources should be Grade II. The EC and SEC (Surplus EC) of the nutrients in the bayare calculated using the nonlinear programming. In the condition of keeping the DIPdischarge unchanged, the corresponding DIN EC in the bay is21843t/a, while theSEC is-8264t/a, which means the DIN discharge should be restricted. In the conditionof keeping the DIN discharge unchanged, the corresponding DIP EC in the bay is1794t/a, and the SEC is1485t/a, which means more DIP could be discharged into the bay.
In the end, the effects of the different hydrodynamic conditions on the ecosystemand the nutrients EC of the Laizhou Bay are also discussed. Strong hydrodynamiccondition of the Yellow River can reduce the eutrophication of the bay, when thefluxes of the discharged nutrients from the Yellow River keep unchanged. Meanwhile,weak hydrodynamic condition of the Yellow River can also reduce the eutrophicationof the bay, while the nutrients concentrations of the discharged water amounts fromthe Yellow River keep unchanged. It means that it is possible to improve theenvironmental quality of the Laizhou Bay by controlling the hydrodynamic conditionand the nutrients discharge of the Yellow River. In addition, the DIN concentration ofthe bay would be undervalued with the barotropic model, in which only the tides areconsidered. While the DIN concentration of the bay would be overestimated with thebarotropic model. Also, the DIN concentration of the bay would decrease if no wind isincluded in the model.
引文
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