国际大豆供求背景下的中国大豆贸易研究
摘要
大豆是重要的农产品,不仅是重要的粮食作物,同时已经转变成为更重要的经济作物。大豆油是国际上和中国的主要食用油来源,而豆粕是目前全球植物蛋白最重要的来源。
本研究立足于国际大豆市场和中国供求关系,通过对国际贸易的方式和定价规则的分析以及中国大豆贸易的依存度研究,提出了通过贸易方式改进解决中国大豆产业困局的政策建议。
中国是大豆的发源地,也是第四大大豆生产国。但是,中国的大豆生产受到了土地资源稀缺的限制,多年来播种面积没有太大的改变。尽管由于单产的缓慢提高,总产量仍然有所增加,但距离中国经济发展速度和人民膳食结构改善对肉蛋奶的需求速度的增加还相差很远。供需缺口的巨大差距迫使中国选择了大量进口国外转基因大豆的贸易政策。
进口大豆不论对中国的经济发展还是对农业生产都有重大的战略意义。大豆的进口为中国提供了大量的植物油,解决了中国食用油短缺的问题;而豆粕则解决了中国畜牧业生产急需的蛋白饲料来源,保证了中国过去十几年畜牧业生产的稳定发展,为改善中国人民的日常饮食中蛋白质摄入量增加提供了保障。大豆压榨行业的兴起,为社会创造了财富,同时创造了就业。而进口大豆为中国农业生产节约了大量的宝贵的土地资源,保证了其他重要粮食作物和经济作物的稳定发展。因此,在中国,大豆进口与石油进口据有同样重要的战略意义。
但是,大豆进口严重影响了中国的大豆生产,特别是影响了中国农民的生产和收入。要解决国内大豆生产的问题,就要切断国产大豆和进口大豆的价格联系。本文通过研究发现,中国的转基因管理条例实际上可以完全把两个市场分割开来,只要适当减少或停止中国的油用大豆生产,就可以在中国建立一个完全封闭的食用非转基因大豆市场,从而保证中国农民的生产不受国际市场制约,而中困的大豆产业政策也能更加发挥作用。
由于大豆已经由粮食作物转变成为经济作物,因此,增加大豆进口并不会影响中国的粮食安全,而且某种程度上还有助于保证其他粮食作物的播种面积,提高中国粮食的自给率。因此,中国完全可以继续扩大目前的大豆进口量,充分利用中国过分闲置的大豆压榨规模,满足中国市场对食用油的巨大需求。同时,过剩的豆粕可以出口到日本等市场。
由于进出口国的多元化,国际大豆市场并不是完全垄断的,国际贸易价格的形成是有规律的。中国企业要积极参与国际大豆市场贸易,在各个贸易环节中参与大豆的定价机制。在增加大豆进口,扩大豆粕出口的同时,国家政策应该进一步鼓励中国非转基因大豆生产,打造食用大豆生产国的品牌,扩大中国高附加值的食用大豆的出口,形成一个良性的、进出口同时发展的贸易格局。
该文主要依托大豆主产国的实地生活和科学考察,结合笔者多年的农学学科的教学和科研实践以及具体的大豆国际贸易操作,通过国内外生产、贸易、价格等数据的收集整理,利用基本贸易理论建立大豆贸易依存度的计量分析模型,通过在实践和理论方面的有效结合,提出了改变中国目前大豆困局的政策建议,包括从新定位大豆在作物分类和农业经济研究中的地位、建立中国两个大豆市场的设想、以及减少中国油用大豆播种面积的建议等。该文在研究视角、研究内容以及研究方法等方面实现了创新,对中国的大豆贸易和产业发展政策具有较好的参考意义。
Soybeans as being one of the major field crop, not only is it an important grain crop, but it also has been transformed into a considerable industrial crop. Soybean oil is the most important vegetable oil in China and the world; mean while, soy meal is the main source of planta protein for Animal husbandry. Based on the supply and demand relation of international and China soybean market, through the analysis of international trade practices, price setting mechanism as well as China's soybean international trade interdependence, this paper suggests that China can solve the soybean industry dilemma by improving its soybean international trade pattern.
Soybeans originated from China; China is also the world fourth largest soybean producer. However, because of the scarcity of arable land, soybean acreage did not change much for many years. Output increase was mainly driven by the slight yield increase. Total output was far less than the demand increase stimulated by the country's economic development and the comsumption increase of meat, eggs and milk in the daily diet of the increasing population. The difference between demand and supply forced China to import more and more GMO soybean from international market.
Imported Soybeans have a great contribution to China's economic development and agricultural production. It had supplied enormous amount of vegetable oil to solve the county's cooking oil shortage; soy meal become the protein source of feed industry, which supported the countries livestock industry development, and further supplied enough protein to consumer's table. The emerging of the new soybean crushing industry increased the wealth of the community and provided more employment opportunities. Last, and the most important, it saved a capacious amount of exquisite arable land to ensure the production of other grain crops, such as corn. Therefore, Soybean import in China strategically has the same function of crud oil import.
Increasing demand of soybean import from China stimulated global soybean production, especially the production of the countries in South America, such as Brazil and Argentina. Now days, global soybean production center is moving from North America to South America, while international trade pattern had also been changed. The US used to be the largest soybean exporter, but now Brazil and Argentina share most part of the export market. Huge arable land reserve in South America ensured the soybean acreage increase in these countries, and put a warrant on soybean import sources for China's increasing demand.
However, soybean import had seriously affected China's soybean production, especially impacted soybean farmers' production and income. The reason is that both domestic soybeans and international soybeans go to the same crushing industry, and the price is determined by international market because of the huge import amount. Solving this problem needs to cut the price link between domestic produce and imported soybeans. Through this research, it appears that China's GMO Soybean Import Regulation has the potential to separate the two products into two isolated markets. If China lower or stop oil-soybean production and turning to produce only non-GMO food-soybean, the country can establish a new domestic non-GMO food-soybean market without price impact from international market volatility, hence the government soybean production policies may perform more efficiently.
As soybean already become an industrial crop, rather than a grain crop, increasing soybean import may not harm the countries food security, but somehow benefit the grain self-sufficiency rate through more arable availability due to fewer soybeans planted. Therefore, China can keep increasing soybean import, fully use the current lie idle soybean crushing capacity, supply more vegetable oil to our cooking oil market, and export the surplus soy meal to international market, such as Japan.
As there are many exporting and importing countries in the world, International soybean trade is not based on monopoly. There are certain patterns to the settings of international trading prices. Importing companies and crushing plants in China should actively get involved in the international soybean market and make contributions to the price setting process in different tracing patterns. Nobody can offer China a right to set the international soybean price, but the involvement of Chiese comopanies' market practice. Though China is the largest soybean importing country in the world, it is not the only soybean importer in the global market; China can not control the international market price through its buying power. World soybean price is the result of international soybean demand and supply balance.
China can increase non-GMO food-soybean production, promote the useage of food-soybean in China and in the world, provide value-added soybeans by taking the advantage of the "brand name" as non-GMO production base. Then, Chia's international trade pattern will become more healthier by importing GMO soybean, exporting soybean meal and China produced non-GMO food-soybean, rather than the current pattern, which mostly import GMO soybean.
This research is based on the living experiences and scientific investigations in major soybean producing countries, combined with years of teaching and research background in agronomy, as well as hand on practice of soybean international trade. Through the analysis of production, trade and price data by using model of mathematical economics of soybean international trade interdependence, the research resulted in changing of trade pattern to solve the current problems in soybean industry. The author suggested that the country should change the view of soybean in crop categories in agronomy and agricultural economic research, establish two soybean markets in China and decrease soybean production for crushing. This research brought fourth new viewpoints, research topics as well as research methods in this kind of studies, and its results provided theoretical and practical reference for policy makers in the country.
本研究立足于国际大豆市场和中国供求关系,通过对国际贸易的方式和定价规则的分析以及中国大豆贸易的依存度研究,提出了通过贸易方式改进解决中国大豆产业困局的政策建议。
中国是大豆的发源地,也是第四大大豆生产国。但是,中国的大豆生产受到了土地资源稀缺的限制,多年来播种面积没有太大的改变。尽管由于单产的缓慢提高,总产量仍然有所增加,但距离中国经济发展速度和人民膳食结构改善对肉蛋奶的需求速度的增加还相差很远。供需缺口的巨大差距迫使中国选择了大量进口国外转基因大豆的贸易政策。
进口大豆不论对中国的经济发展还是对农业生产都有重大的战略意义。大豆的进口为中国提供了大量的植物油,解决了中国食用油短缺的问题;而豆粕则解决了中国畜牧业生产急需的蛋白饲料来源,保证了中国过去十几年畜牧业生产的稳定发展,为改善中国人民的日常饮食中蛋白质摄入量增加提供了保障。大豆压榨行业的兴起,为社会创造了财富,同时创造了就业。而进口大豆为中国农业生产节约了大量的宝贵的土地资源,保证了其他重要粮食作物和经济作物的稳定发展。因此,在中国,大豆进口与石油进口据有同样重要的战略意义。
但是,大豆进口严重影响了中国的大豆生产,特别是影响了中国农民的生产和收入。要解决国内大豆生产的问题,就要切断国产大豆和进口大豆的价格联系。本文通过研究发现,中国的转基因管理条例实际上可以完全把两个市场分割开来,只要适当减少或停止中国的油用大豆生产,就可以在中国建立一个完全封闭的食用非转基因大豆市场,从而保证中国农民的生产不受国际市场制约,而中困的大豆产业政策也能更加发挥作用。
由于大豆已经由粮食作物转变成为经济作物,因此,增加大豆进口并不会影响中国的粮食安全,而且某种程度上还有助于保证其他粮食作物的播种面积,提高中国粮食的自给率。因此,中国完全可以继续扩大目前的大豆进口量,充分利用中国过分闲置的大豆压榨规模,满足中国市场对食用油的巨大需求。同时,过剩的豆粕可以出口到日本等市场。
由于进出口国的多元化,国际大豆市场并不是完全垄断的,国际贸易价格的形成是有规律的。中国企业要积极参与国际大豆市场贸易,在各个贸易环节中参与大豆的定价机制。在增加大豆进口,扩大豆粕出口的同时,国家政策应该进一步鼓励中国非转基因大豆生产,打造食用大豆生产国的品牌,扩大中国高附加值的食用大豆的出口,形成一个良性的、进出口同时发展的贸易格局。
该文主要依托大豆主产国的实地生活和科学考察,结合笔者多年的农学学科的教学和科研实践以及具体的大豆国际贸易操作,通过国内外生产、贸易、价格等数据的收集整理,利用基本贸易理论建立大豆贸易依存度的计量分析模型,通过在实践和理论方面的有效结合,提出了改变中国目前大豆困局的政策建议,包括从新定位大豆在作物分类和农业经济研究中的地位、建立中国两个大豆市场的设想、以及减少中国油用大豆播种面积的建议等。该文在研究视角、研究内容以及研究方法等方面实现了创新,对中国的大豆贸易和产业发展政策具有较好的参考意义。
Soybeans as being one of the major field crop, not only is it an important grain crop, but it also has been transformed into a considerable industrial crop. Soybean oil is the most important vegetable oil in China and the world; mean while, soy meal is the main source of planta protein for Animal husbandry. Based on the supply and demand relation of international and China soybean market, through the analysis of international trade practices, price setting mechanism as well as China's soybean international trade interdependence, this paper suggests that China can solve the soybean industry dilemma by improving its soybean international trade pattern.
Soybeans originated from China; China is also the world fourth largest soybean producer. However, because of the scarcity of arable land, soybean acreage did not change much for many years. Output increase was mainly driven by the slight yield increase. Total output was far less than the demand increase stimulated by the country's economic development and the comsumption increase of meat, eggs and milk in the daily diet of the increasing population. The difference between demand and supply forced China to import more and more GMO soybean from international market.
Imported Soybeans have a great contribution to China's economic development and agricultural production. It had supplied enormous amount of vegetable oil to solve the county's cooking oil shortage; soy meal become the protein source of feed industry, which supported the countries livestock industry development, and further supplied enough protein to consumer's table. The emerging of the new soybean crushing industry increased the wealth of the community and provided more employment opportunities. Last, and the most important, it saved a capacious amount of exquisite arable land to ensure the production of other grain crops, such as corn. Therefore, Soybean import in China strategically has the same function of crud oil import.
Increasing demand of soybean import from China stimulated global soybean production, especially the production of the countries in South America, such as Brazil and Argentina. Now days, global soybean production center is moving from North America to South America, while international trade pattern had also been changed. The US used to be the largest soybean exporter, but now Brazil and Argentina share most part of the export market. Huge arable land reserve in South America ensured the soybean acreage increase in these countries, and put a warrant on soybean import sources for China's increasing demand.
However, soybean import had seriously affected China's soybean production, especially impacted soybean farmers' production and income. The reason is that both domestic soybeans and international soybeans go to the same crushing industry, and the price is determined by international market because of the huge import amount. Solving this problem needs to cut the price link between domestic produce and imported soybeans. Through this research, it appears that China's GMO Soybean Import Regulation has the potential to separate the two products into two isolated markets. If China lower or stop oil-soybean production and turning to produce only non-GMO food-soybean, the country can establish a new domestic non-GMO food-soybean market without price impact from international market volatility, hence the government soybean production policies may perform more efficiently.
As soybean already become an industrial crop, rather than a grain crop, increasing soybean import may not harm the countries food security, but somehow benefit the grain self-sufficiency rate through more arable availability due to fewer soybeans planted. Therefore, China can keep increasing soybean import, fully use the current lie idle soybean crushing capacity, supply more vegetable oil to our cooking oil market, and export the surplus soy meal to international market, such as Japan.
As there are many exporting and importing countries in the world, International soybean trade is not based on monopoly. There are certain patterns to the settings of international trading prices. Importing companies and crushing plants in China should actively get involved in the international soybean market and make contributions to the price setting process in different tracing patterns. Nobody can offer China a right to set the international soybean price, but the involvement of Chiese comopanies' market practice. Though China is the largest soybean importing country in the world, it is not the only soybean importer in the global market; China can not control the international market price through its buying power. World soybean price is the result of international soybean demand and supply balance.
China can increase non-GMO food-soybean production, promote the useage of food-soybean in China and in the world, provide value-added soybeans by taking the advantage of the "brand name" as non-GMO production base. Then, Chia's international trade pattern will become more healthier by importing GMO soybean, exporting soybean meal and China produced non-GMO food-soybean, rather than the current pattern, which mostly import GMO soybean.
This research is based on the living experiences and scientific investigations in major soybean producing countries, combined with years of teaching and research background in agronomy, as well as hand on practice of soybean international trade. Through the analysis of production, trade and price data by using model of mathematical economics of soybean international trade interdependence, the research resulted in changing of trade pattern to solve the current problems in soybean industry. The author suggested that the country should change the view of soybean in crop categories in agronomy and agricultural economic research, establish two soybean markets in China and decrease soybean production for crushing. This research brought fourth new viewpoints, research topics as well as research methods in this kind of studies, and its results provided theoretical and practical reference for policy makers in the country.
引文
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