我国森林火灾风险评估与保险费率厘定研究
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摘要
本世纪以来我国林业改革和发展的加快，特别是集体林权制度改革的推进，催生了对森林保险的迫切需求，并为曾经一度陷于停滞的我国森林保险业务的恢复和发展提供了新的基础和条件。然而我国森林保险的发展仍然面临着诸多制约，既有政策、法规方面的欠缺，亦有技术与运营方面的不足。其中一个比较突出的问题是，我国现行森林保险费率的厘定受人为因素的影响较大，缺乏科学理论依据，也未能科学反映区域之间风险水平的差异。
为此，本文首先针对我国森林保险发展的现状，对森林保险的概念、经济学性质、与农业保险的关系、发展模式的定义及其分析框架等基础问题进行了解析。然后，选取森林火灾为研究对象，运用数理统计模型、随机模拟技术和火灾物理模型，在全国省域和公顷网格两级尺度上分别开展了森林火灾风险评估和保险费率厘定研究。主要工作和贡献如下：
本研究对森林保险的概念、经济学性质、与农业保险的关系等进行了探索性的研究和讨论，并提出了森林保险发展模式的定义及其五O分析框架。对森林保险这些基础问题的研究成果，将有助于保险业界和学界进一步深入探索我国森林保险的发展模式和相关政策机制的设计。
本研究在省域和公顷网格两级尺度上分别形成了基于森林火灾定量风险评估的保险费率厘定技术方法，不仅破解了我国目前森林保险费率厘定中人为因素主导、缺乏科学依据的问题，提高了我国在森林火灾保险领域的承保风险管理水平，具有技术方法上的创新性；而且依据数据的可获取性在全国范围内应用，可进一步发展并最终形成中国森林火灾保险模型，从而可从技术上破除国际保险模型公司与国际再保经纪公司构筑的竞争壁垒，具有很强的实用性。其中在公顷网格尺度的研究中，创新性地引入了森林火灾起火和蔓延的物理模型与随机事件模拟技术，有效地解决了在历史数据样本较小的条件下难以开展大尺度、高空间分辨率保险费率厘定的问题，从而将为我国森林保险业务运营的更加科学化和精细化做出基础性、突破性贡献。
本文的实证研究表明，我国森林火灾风险在省、县、乡等多个尺度上均存在着较为明显的区域差异，并同时表现在森林火灾年损失的期望值与方差两个方面。这一实证结果充分说明了开展森林灾害风险评估、区域划分、进行保险精算并按风险区域实施差别费率的重要性和必要性。
与此同时，本研究测算得出的我国各省以及浙江省内研究区域的森林火灾保险纯费率和充足费率可直接为保险行业提供定价参考，因此具有较好的实践价值和示范意义。
There is acceleration in the reform and development of the forest industry in Chinaafter entering this century, particularly the reform in the collective tenure system offorest. It generates an urgent need for forest insurance and provides a new foundationfor the resumption and redevelopment of forest insurance. Nevertheless, there are stillquite a number of constraints for the development of forest insurance in China,including both institutional arrangements (e.g. policy and legislation) and technical andoperational issues. One of the most urgent problems is that the pricing of premium ratesfor forest insurance is determined to a large extent by subjective factors rather thanobjective scientific assessment, and it cannot reflect the regional difference in risk.
In this sense, this dissertation focuses on the risk assessment and insurancepremium rating of the forest fire disaster in China. Based on the status quo of forestinsurance in China, it firstly provides insightful discussion of the concept and economicproperty of forest insurance, its relationship with agricultural insurance, as well as itsdevelopment mode and analytical framework of the mode. Secondly, taking forest fireas the research object, it carries out studies on forest fire risk assessment and insurancepremium rating at both the provincial and hectare scales with statistical model,stochastic simulation and physical fire models. The major contribution of this study canbe summarized as follows:
This dissertation provides a tentative study and discussion on the concept of forestinsurance, its externality and its relationship to agricultural insurance. It brings forwardthe development mode for forest insurance and its five-“O” analytical framework. Thediscussion on fundamental issues in forest insurance could help the insurance industryand academic community further explore issues on development mode and institutionaldesign for the forest insurance in China.
This study develops the methodology to insurance premium rating based on thequantitative risk assessment of forest fire disaster at both provincial and hectare scales.On one hand, it solves the problem of strong subjective intervention and lack ofobjective scientific support in forest insurance premium rating, and will substantiallyimprove the insured risk management in forest fire insurance in China, which is amethodological innovation. On the other hand, the method can be applied nation-wide given data availability, and further updated to a China forest fire insurance model. Inthis sense, it may break the barrier constructed by international model companies andinsurance brokers from the technical perspective, which is extremely valuable forChinese insurance industry. In the study at the hectare scale, the introduction of ignitionand propagation physical models of forest fire as well as stochastic simulation techniquesuccessfully solves the problem of premium rating at high spatial resolution withinsufficient historical sample data. This progress will make remarkable contribution tothe professionalized and sound operation of forest insurance business in China.
The empirical results of this study reveal that there are significant spatialdifferences in forest fire risk in China at the province, county and township levels, inboth the expected value and variance of annual losses claimed by forest fire disaster.This result supports the statement that there is an urgent need in China to conduct forestdisaster risk assessment, regionalization, and insurance actuary for the implementationof risk-based premium rating system.
Last but not least, the estimated pure rate and sufficient rate of forest fire insuranceof each province as well as the research area in Zhejiang province can be usedimmediately for reference by the insurance industry, which is highly practical andillustrative.
为此，本文首先针对我国森林保险发展的现状，对森林保险的概念、经济学性质、与农业保险的关系、发展模式的定义及其分析框架等基础问题进行了解析。然后，选取森林火灾为研究对象，运用数理统计模型、随机模拟技术和火灾物理模型，在全国省域和公顷网格两级尺度上分别开展了森林火灾风险评估和保险费率厘定研究。主要工作和贡献如下：
本研究对森林保险的概念、经济学性质、与农业保险的关系等进行了探索性的研究和讨论，并提出了森林保险发展模式的定义及其五O分析框架。对森林保险这些基础问题的研究成果，将有助于保险业界和学界进一步深入探索我国森林保险的发展模式和相关政策机制的设计。
本研究在省域和公顷网格两级尺度上分别形成了基于森林火灾定量风险评估的保险费率厘定技术方法，不仅破解了我国目前森林保险费率厘定中人为因素主导、缺乏科学依据的问题，提高了我国在森林火灾保险领域的承保风险管理水平，具有技术方法上的创新性；而且依据数据的可获取性在全国范围内应用，可进一步发展并最终形成中国森林火灾保险模型，从而可从技术上破除国际保险模型公司与国际再保经纪公司构筑的竞争壁垒，具有很强的实用性。其中在公顷网格尺度的研究中，创新性地引入了森林火灾起火和蔓延的物理模型与随机事件模拟技术，有效地解决了在历史数据样本较小的条件下难以开展大尺度、高空间分辨率保险费率厘定的问题，从而将为我国森林保险业务运营的更加科学化和精细化做出基础性、突破性贡献。
本文的实证研究表明，我国森林火灾风险在省、县、乡等多个尺度上均存在着较为明显的区域差异，并同时表现在森林火灾年损失的期望值与方差两个方面。这一实证结果充分说明了开展森林灾害风险评估、区域划分、进行保险精算并按风险区域实施差别费率的重要性和必要性。
与此同时，本研究测算得出的我国各省以及浙江省内研究区域的森林火灾保险纯费率和充足费率可直接为保险行业提供定价参考，因此具有较好的实践价值和示范意义。
There is acceleration in the reform and development of the forest industry in Chinaafter entering this century, particularly the reform in the collective tenure system offorest. It generates an urgent need for forest insurance and provides a new foundationfor the resumption and redevelopment of forest insurance. Nevertheless, there are stillquite a number of constraints for the development of forest insurance in China,including both institutional arrangements (e.g. policy and legislation) and technical andoperational issues. One of the most urgent problems is that the pricing of premium ratesfor forest insurance is determined to a large extent by subjective factors rather thanobjective scientific assessment, and it cannot reflect the regional difference in risk.
In this sense, this dissertation focuses on the risk assessment and insurancepremium rating of the forest fire disaster in China. Based on the status quo of forestinsurance in China, it firstly provides insightful discussion of the concept and economicproperty of forest insurance, its relationship with agricultural insurance, as well as itsdevelopment mode and analytical framework of the mode. Secondly, taking forest fireas the research object, it carries out studies on forest fire risk assessment and insurancepremium rating at both the provincial and hectare scales with statistical model,stochastic simulation and physical fire models. The major contribution of this study canbe summarized as follows:
This dissertation provides a tentative study and discussion on the concept of forestinsurance, its externality and its relationship to agricultural insurance. It brings forwardthe development mode for forest insurance and its five-“O” analytical framework. Thediscussion on fundamental issues in forest insurance could help the insurance industryand academic community further explore issues on development mode and institutionaldesign for the forest insurance in China.
This study develops the methodology to insurance premium rating based on thequantitative risk assessment of forest fire disaster at both provincial and hectare scales.On one hand, it solves the problem of strong subjective intervention and lack ofobjective scientific support in forest insurance premium rating, and will substantiallyimprove the insured risk management in forest fire insurance in China, which is amethodological innovation. On the other hand, the method can be applied nation-wide given data availability, and further updated to a China forest fire insurance model. Inthis sense, it may break the barrier constructed by international model companies andinsurance brokers from the technical perspective, which is extremely valuable forChinese insurance industry. In the study at the hectare scale, the introduction of ignitionand propagation physical models of forest fire as well as stochastic simulation techniquesuccessfully solves the problem of premium rating at high spatial resolution withinsufficient historical sample data. This progress will make remarkable contribution tothe professionalized and sound operation of forest insurance business in China.
The empirical results of this study reveal that there are significant spatialdifferences in forest fire risk in China at the province, county and township levels, inboth the expected value and variance of annual losses claimed by forest fire disaster.This result supports the statement that there is an urgent need in China to conduct forestdisaster risk assessment, regionalization, and insurance actuary for the implementationof risk-based premium rating system.
Last but not least, the estimated pure rate and sufficient rate of forest fire insuranceof each province as well as the research area in Zhejiang province can be usedimmediately for reference by the insurance industry, which is highly practical andillustrative.
引文
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