重特大道路交通事故致因机理及其风险行为研究
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摘要
近年来，中国的道路交通安全形势总体平稳，但是群死群伤的重特大道路交通事故却时有发生，给经济社会和人民生活带来了巨大的负面影响。目前，国内外关于道路交通事故规律的公开研究成果较多，但鲜有针对重特大道路交通事故的研究成果。重特大道路交通事故是否仅是一般道路交通事故的简单扩大化，是否有其内在的事故致因机理，是否存在着特殊的风险因素，尚无明确的答案。因此，深入开展重特大道路交通事故致因机理及其风险行为研究，对于提高此类事故预防工作的针对性和有效性具有重要的现实意义和理论价值。
论文以中国一次死亡10人以上的重特大道路交通事故为研究对象，运用系统论、安全工程学、交通工程学、风险管理学、统计学等多种学科的理论和方法，对重特大道路交通事故的影响因素、演变过程、人为风险行为、风险行为决策等关键问题展开研究。
论文首先分析了重特大道路交通事故的特征差异和显著影响因素。对比分析了重特大道路交通事故爆发阶段和前兆阶段中多车事故与单车事故、营运车辆事故与非营运车辆事故之间的特征差异，遴选出重特大道路交通事故频率分析的解释变量；针对变量数据的离散分布特性，利用随机参数负二项式模型，研究了驾驶人行为、道路特征等因素与事故频率的关系，结果表明：货车比例、超速、应急操作不当、国省道比例以及异常天气与重特大道路交通事故频率有显著相关性。
在对重特大道路交通事故典型案例进行故障树分析的基础上，构建了重特大道路交通事故演变的时间Petri网模型，使用关联矩阵的S不变量法验证模型的合理性；针对模型参数的不同属性，使用企业事故数据统计和安全评价两种方式确定变迁概率值，使用模糊规则推算库所概率值；在此基础上，设计了一种基于回溯搜索的前向事故风险链诊断算法，实现了重特大道路交通事故关键风险路径的甄别；将此方法应用到发生过和未发生过重特大事故的道路运输企业安全风险状况的对比分析中，发现两组企业在路径风险值数量级上存在显著差异。
针对事故人为风险的高发特性，分析了发生过重特大事故的道路运输企业中人的不安全行为与行为绩效的影响机理。基于已有研究基础，设计了驾驶员和安全管理人员风险行为调查问卷，并引入不安全行为指数，分别构建了驾驶员和安全管理人员不安全行为与行为绩效的结构方程模型；综合运用SPSS和AMOS软件对问卷调查数据进行描述统计分析、信效度分析和模型拟合度检验，确定了人的不安全行为与行为绩效的影响路径与影响程度，结果表明：发生过重特大事故的道路运输企业驾驶员不安全行为和行为绩效的各维度间具有差异性影响，且各观测变量对驾驶员不安全行为的影响效应与一般驾驶员的已有研究结论存在不一致；安全管理人员不安全行为和行为绩效的各维度间具有差异性影响。
从外部性和内部性的角度出发，探讨了重特大道路交通事故风险行为决策问题。基于系统风险结构分析，将事故成本和违章成本引入到参与者的利润函数中，构建了运输网络均衡的变分不等式模型，并使用变步长投影算法，以超载现象为研究对象，量化了系统环境下人的行为决策与事故风险率之间的影响关系，结果表明：超载率大于0是道路运输管理的顽疾，而给予托运人、承运人和运输管理者三方参与者一定的利润空间是降低涉及超载事故率的前提；在企业内部环境下，采用成本效益分析法对参与者的风险行为决策绩效进行分析，明确了企业内部环境下安全风险之间的转化条件。
In recent years, the trend of road traffic safety in China is generally stable, but roadtraffic accidents with mass casualties occur from time to time, which brings great negativeimpact to economy society and people s life. At present, the publishing research achievementsof road traffic accidents are very much, but the research achievements of accidents with masscasualties is very few. There are no clear answers yet whether accidents with mass casualtiesare only the simple enlargement of general accidents, its inherent mechanism of accidentcause has, and special risk factors exist or not. The in-depth research on cause mechanism ofroad traffic accidents with at least10fatalities and its risk behaviorshas important theoretical value and practical meaning to improve relevance and effectivenessof accident prevention.
The paper discusses seveal issues on the influence factors, evolution process, human riskbehavior and risk behavioral decision of road traffic accident with at least10fatalities, on thebasis of theory and method in various discipline including system theory, safety engineering,traffic engineering, risk management, statistics and so on.
The characteristic differences and significant influence factors of road traffic accidentwith at least10fatalities are analyzed. A number of accident statistical indictors are used todescribe the accident characteristics at the stage of accident outbreak and precursory, and toelaborate the characteristic differences between multi-vehicle accidents and single-vehicleaccidents, between commerial vehicle accidents and non-commerial vehicle accidents, so asto find out the explanatory variables affecting accident frequency. Considering distributioncharacteristics of accident data, random-parameters negative binomial (NB) regression modelis used to study the relationship between accident frequency and the influence factors, suchas driver behavior, road structure and so on. The results show that the proportion of truck,improper operation, speeding, abnormal weather and the proportion of national highway andprovincial highway are found to have a significant impact on accident frequency.
Based on fault tree analysis of typical accident case, the timed petri net model ofaccident with mass casualties is built, and S invariant method on the basis of incidencematrix is used to validate the rationality of the model; According to different properties ofmodel parameter, the transition probability value is determined using two ways betweenenterprise accident statistics and safety assessment, and the place probability value iscalculated by fuzzy rule. On this basis, a diagnosis algorithm of accident risk chain based onbacktracking is proposed to identify the critical risk paths of transport enterprises. According to contrastive analysis of safety risk situation of road transportation enterprises betweenhappened accident and no accident, the differences on the risk value of critical path in twoset of enterprise is significant.
Given the high-risk characteristics of man-made risks, the paper analyzesthe impact mechanism of people's unsafe behavior on safety behavior performance intransport enterprises with mass casualty accidents. Based on previous research, driver sunsafe behaviors questionnaire and safety manager s unsafe behaviors questionnaire aredesigned, and unsafe behavior index is introduced to build structural equation model ofunsafe behavior and its behavior performance. The description statistical analysis,reliability and validity analysis of survey data and fitting test of the proposed model arecarried out by SPSS software and AMOS software. The influence path and influence degreebetween people's unsafe behaviors and behavior performance is determined. The resultsshow that the dimensions of driver's unsafe behavior on safety behavior performance intransport enterprises with mass casualty accidents has significant difference, and theinfluence effect that observation variables to driver s unsafe behaviors is inconsistent withgeneral driver's privious research conclusion; the dimensions of safety manager's unsafebehavior on safety behavior performance in transport enterprises with mass casualtyaccidents has significant difference.
The risk decision optimization problem of road traffic accident at least10fatalities isdiscussed from external and internal aspects. According to the analysis of system riskstructure, accident costs and violation costs are introduced to the profit function of theparticipants. A variational inequality model of the network equilibrium and the projectionalgorithm of variable steps are designed to quantify the change relation between people'sbehavior decision and accident risk rate. Overloading is discussed as the research object, andthe results show that the overloading rate is greater than0, which is the chronic disease ofcurrent road transport network, and the precondition of lowering overload accident rate is togive a certain profit space for three parties including the shipper, the carrier and the manager.In internal environment, the cost-benefit analysis method is used to analyze the participants'risk behavior decision-making, and the transformation conditions among safety risk in theenterprise internal environment are defined.
论文以中国一次死亡10人以上的重特大道路交通事故为研究对象，运用系统论、安全工程学、交通工程学、风险管理学、统计学等多种学科的理论和方法，对重特大道路交通事故的影响因素、演变过程、人为风险行为、风险行为决策等关键问题展开研究。
论文首先分析了重特大道路交通事故的特征差异和显著影响因素。对比分析了重特大道路交通事故爆发阶段和前兆阶段中多车事故与单车事故、营运车辆事故与非营运车辆事故之间的特征差异，遴选出重特大道路交通事故频率分析的解释变量；针对变量数据的离散分布特性，利用随机参数负二项式模型，研究了驾驶人行为、道路特征等因素与事故频率的关系，结果表明：货车比例、超速、应急操作不当、国省道比例以及异常天气与重特大道路交通事故频率有显著相关性。
在对重特大道路交通事故典型案例进行故障树分析的基础上，构建了重特大道路交通事故演变的时间Petri网模型，使用关联矩阵的S不变量法验证模型的合理性；针对模型参数的不同属性，使用企业事故数据统计和安全评价两种方式确定变迁概率值，使用模糊规则推算库所概率值；在此基础上，设计了一种基于回溯搜索的前向事故风险链诊断算法，实现了重特大道路交通事故关键风险路径的甄别；将此方法应用到发生过和未发生过重特大事故的道路运输企业安全风险状况的对比分析中，发现两组企业在路径风险值数量级上存在显著差异。
针对事故人为风险的高发特性，分析了发生过重特大事故的道路运输企业中人的不安全行为与行为绩效的影响机理。基于已有研究基础，设计了驾驶员和安全管理人员风险行为调查问卷，并引入不安全行为指数，分别构建了驾驶员和安全管理人员不安全行为与行为绩效的结构方程模型；综合运用SPSS和AMOS软件对问卷调查数据进行描述统计分析、信效度分析和模型拟合度检验，确定了人的不安全行为与行为绩效的影响路径与影响程度，结果表明：发生过重特大事故的道路运输企业驾驶员不安全行为和行为绩效的各维度间具有差异性影响，且各观测变量对驾驶员不安全行为的影响效应与一般驾驶员的已有研究结论存在不一致；安全管理人员不安全行为和行为绩效的各维度间具有差异性影响。
从外部性和内部性的角度出发，探讨了重特大道路交通事故风险行为决策问题。基于系统风险结构分析，将事故成本和违章成本引入到参与者的利润函数中，构建了运输网络均衡的变分不等式模型，并使用变步长投影算法，以超载现象为研究对象，量化了系统环境下人的行为决策与事故风险率之间的影响关系，结果表明：超载率大于0是道路运输管理的顽疾，而给予托运人、承运人和运输管理者三方参与者一定的利润空间是降低涉及超载事故率的前提；在企业内部环境下，采用成本效益分析法对参与者的风险行为决策绩效进行分析，明确了企业内部环境下安全风险之间的转化条件。
In recent years, the trend of road traffic safety in China is generally stable, but roadtraffic accidents with mass casualties occur from time to time, which brings great negativeimpact to economy society and people s life. At present, the publishing research achievementsof road traffic accidents are very much, but the research achievements of accidents with masscasualties is very few. There are no clear answers yet whether accidents with mass casualtiesare only the simple enlargement of general accidents, its inherent mechanism of accidentcause has, and special risk factors exist or not. The in-depth research on cause mechanism ofroad traffic accidents with at least10fatalities and its risk behaviorshas important theoretical value and practical meaning to improve relevance and effectivenessof accident prevention.
The paper discusses seveal issues on the influence factors, evolution process, human riskbehavior and risk behavioral decision of road traffic accident with at least10fatalities, on thebasis of theory and method in various discipline including system theory, safety engineering,traffic engineering, risk management, statistics and so on.
The characteristic differences and significant influence factors of road traffic accidentwith at least10fatalities are analyzed. A number of accident statistical indictors are used todescribe the accident characteristics at the stage of accident outbreak and precursory, and toelaborate the characteristic differences between multi-vehicle accidents and single-vehicleaccidents, between commerial vehicle accidents and non-commerial vehicle accidents, so asto find out the explanatory variables affecting accident frequency. Considering distributioncharacteristics of accident data, random-parameters negative binomial (NB) regression modelis used to study the relationship between accident frequency and the influence factors, suchas driver behavior, road structure and so on. The results show that the proportion of truck,improper operation, speeding, abnormal weather and the proportion of national highway andprovincial highway are found to have a significant impact on accident frequency.
Based on fault tree analysis of typical accident case, the timed petri net model ofaccident with mass casualties is built, and S invariant method on the basis of incidencematrix is used to validate the rationality of the model; According to different properties ofmodel parameter, the transition probability value is determined using two ways betweenenterprise accident statistics and safety assessment, and the place probability value iscalculated by fuzzy rule. On this basis, a diagnosis algorithm of accident risk chain based onbacktracking is proposed to identify the critical risk paths of transport enterprises. According to contrastive analysis of safety risk situation of road transportation enterprises betweenhappened accident and no accident, the differences on the risk value of critical path in twoset of enterprise is significant.
Given the high-risk characteristics of man-made risks, the paper analyzesthe impact mechanism of people's unsafe behavior on safety behavior performance intransport enterprises with mass casualty accidents. Based on previous research, driver sunsafe behaviors questionnaire and safety manager s unsafe behaviors questionnaire aredesigned, and unsafe behavior index is introduced to build structural equation model ofunsafe behavior and its behavior performance. The description statistical analysis,reliability and validity analysis of survey data and fitting test of the proposed model arecarried out by SPSS software and AMOS software. The influence path and influence degreebetween people's unsafe behaviors and behavior performance is determined. The resultsshow that the dimensions of driver's unsafe behavior on safety behavior performance intransport enterprises with mass casualty accidents has significant difference, and theinfluence effect that observation variables to driver s unsafe behaviors is inconsistent withgeneral driver's privious research conclusion; the dimensions of safety manager's unsafebehavior on safety behavior performance in transport enterprises with mass casualtyaccidents has significant difference.
The risk decision optimization problem of road traffic accident at least10fatalities isdiscussed from external and internal aspects. According to the analysis of system riskstructure, accident costs and violation costs are introduced to the profit function of theparticipants. A variational inequality model of the network equilibrium and the projectionalgorithm of variable steps are designed to quantify the change relation between people'sbehavior decision and accident risk rate. Overloading is discussed as the research object, andthe results show that the overloading rate is greater than0, which is the chronic disease ofcurrent road transport network, and the precondition of lowering overload accident rate is togive a certain profit space for three parties including the shipper, the carrier and the manager.In internal environment, the cost-benefit analysis method is used to analyze the participants'risk behavior decision-making, and the transformation conditions among safety risk in theenterprise internal environment are defined.
引文
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