高速公路交通事故时空分析模型及其预防方法
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摘要
随着我国社会经济的高速发展,高速公路建设也取得了举世瞩目的成就。高速公路的快速发展,极大地提高了我国公路网的整体技术水平,优化了交通运输结构,对缓解交通运输的“瓶颈”制约发挥了重要作用,有力地促进了我国经济发展和社会进步。然而,同时也一直以它的高事故率、高伤亡率困扰着我国高速公路的管理者和使用者。特别是西部大开发战略的实施,山区高速公路的里程越来越多、所占比例越来越大。由于山岭重丘区地形地貌的限制,山区高速公路部分路段的线形设计不可避免地采用极限值或高于极限值,导致部分路段事故频繁发生,进而形成事故多发段。
从20世纪90年代起,我国开始对事故多发段进行研究,在借鉴、吸收国外已有研究成果的基础上,提出了一些新的事故多发段鉴别方法,为交通事故多发段的排查和整治等微观交通安全研究进行了有益的探索。但是,目前的研究缺乏对事故多发段进行系统、深入的理论研究,不仅没有对事故多发段的定义形成统一标准,而且没有对事故多发段的产生机理和改善研究进行详细剖析。因此,以典型事故多发段为研究对象,分析交通事故特征与道路空间结构、交通运行环境等因素之间的关系,剖析交通事故的形成机理,基于事故产生机理提出交通事故预防措施并预测其预防效果,是目前交通安全领域研究迫切需要解决的问题之一。
此外,随着2004年《国家高速公路网规划》出台以及随后的各省(市、自治区)高速公路网规划的相继出台,我国高速公路建设井然有序、合理推进,已经从满足需求式的发展建设模式转变为专业化布局式的网络化发展建设模式。截止2009年底,我国高速公路里程达到6.5万公里,东部地区高速公路网络已经形成,中部地区高速公路网络的雏形已经显现,西部地区高速公路网络的骨架已经形成。随着我国高速公路网络的逐渐完善,高速公路管理工作的中心逐渐从建设方面转移到运营和安全管理方面,高速公路的高效运输和安全运营将成为交通运输部门今后的主要工作。
因此,深入研究高速公路交通事故发生的规律,特别是典型交通事故多发段,不仅可以揭示高速公路交通事故发生的机理,有助于明确道路安全隐患；而且可以根据道路安全隐患有针对性地制定预防措施,降低交通事故数量及其伤害程度,为预防高速公路交通事故奠定理论基础。
在此背景下,对以下五个方面的内容进行深入研究：
(1)阐述高速公路交通事故致因机理,交通事故是由人、车、路和环境组成的动态系统失衡状态下的产物；总结国内外学者的相关研究成果,分别从人的因素、车辆因素、道路条件因素和环境因素4个方面详细分析高速公路交通事故的影响因素。
(2)从时间和道路空间结构两个方面选择9个候选自变量,并根据路段长度划分方法的不同,分别从路段长度一致和路段坡度一致两个角度,分别构建交通事故起数的时段、周日和月分布模型,分析交通事故与时间、道路空间结构和交通运行环境等因素之间的关系；分别运用泊松回归模型、负二项回归模型、零堆积泊松回归模型和零堆积负二项回归模型拟合交通事故起数时段、周日和月分布模型,根据模型的拟合优度检验,确定模型的最佳形式,从而构建交通事故起数时空分析模型。
(3)根据我国的实际情况,确定交通事故严重程度的分类标准；从时间、道路空间结构和交通运行环境等方面初步选择13个候选自变量,建立基于累积Logistic回归模型的高速公路交通事故严重程度时空分析模型,从成比例检验、拟合优度检验和预测准确度3个方面对模型进行检验。
(4)以某典型交通事故多发段K39+180-K52+180为研究对象,并在2005年二期预防措施的基础上,提出3种预防措施备选方案；运用第四章建立的交通事故起数模型和交通事故严重程度模型,分别预测4种预防措施方案的交通事故起数和严重程度,采用事前事后对比分析法,从交通事故起数和交通事故严重程度两个方面,分析4种预防措施方案的预防效果。
(5)根据交通事故损失成本和交通安全设施成本,分析交通事故预防措施方案综合效益的分析方法,以及不确定性因素对综合效益的敏感性分析；根据第五章提出的4种预防措施方案,分析4种预防措施方案的综合效益,并分别运用单因素敏感性分析和多因素敏感性分析,分析不确定性因素对综合效益的影响程度。
With the rapid development of our national society and economy, the construction of expressway has also made remarkable achievements. The rapid development of expressway has greatly improved the overall technological level of the highway network and optimized the transportation structure, which has played an important role in alleviating bottlenecks of transportation and has promoted the further economic development and social progress. However, the expressway has been plaguing our managers and users by its high accident rates and casualty rates. In particular, the implementation of develop-the-west strategy, the mileage of expressway in mountain areas is increasing, and the proportion of expressway in mountain areas is growing. Owing to the limitation of geographic and geomorphic conditions in heavy mountainous areas, highway geometric design of expressway in mountain areas will inevitably use some limit design indicators, resulting in traffic accidents occurred frequently in some sections, which become accident-prone locations.
Since the 1990s, some researchers began to study the accident-prone location, and put forward some methods of identifying the accident-prone location based on extensive foreign existing research, which were useful exploration for the investigation and remediation of accident-prone location. However, present studies are short of systematic and in-depth theoretical research for the accident-prone location. Not only there is no standard definition of the accident-prone location, but also there is no detailed analysis of formation mechanism and prevention research for the accident-prone location. Therefore, it is necessary to select the typical accident-prone location, and analyze the relationship of the characteristics of traffic accidents and some influencing factors, such as highway spatial structure, traffic operation environment, and analyze the formation mechanism of traffic accidents, and put forward some prevention measures of traffic accidents, and predict prevention effects of prevention measures, which become an important and hot problem in the field of traffic safety.
In addition, with the issue of the national expressway network planning in 2004 and the subsequent issue of the expressway network planning of each provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities), the construction of expressway in China are in order, and the development and construction pattern has moved from contented demand type to professional layout type. By the end of 2009, there is 6.5 million kilometers expressway in China, and expressway network in the eastern region has been formed, and the basic expressway network in the central region has already appeared, and the skeleton expressway network in the western region has been formed. With the gradual improvement of expressway network in China, the central work of expressway management department is transferring from the construction to the operation and management, and the efficient transportation and safe operation of expressway will be the main work in the future.
Therefore, the profound study of the laws of expressway traffic accidents, in particular, the typical accident-prone location, can not only reveal the mechanism of expressway traffic accidents and contribute to determine potential safety hazard, but also formulate some targeted improvement measures in order to reduce the number of traffic accident and mitigate accident severity, and lay the theoretical basis for traffic accident prevention.
In this context, the main content of this dissertation is summarized as follows:
(1) The mechanism of cause of traffic accident for expressway was described, which is the imbalance product of the dynamic system composed of people, vehicles, roads and environment. Then, research findings of some scholars at home and abroad were summarized from four aspects:human factors, vehicle factors, road conditions and environmental factors.
(2) In order to analyse the relationship between the number of traffic accidents and potential influencing factors, nine independent variables were selected, and two kinds of different section divided method were adopted, which produced 1 km fixed-length segment and the longitudinal grade consistent segment. Three general form of traffic accident frequency temporal-spatial model were constructed, which are traffic accident frequency hourly distribution model, traffic accident frequency weekly distribution model and traffic accident frequency monthly distribution model. Four statistical model, which were Poisson regression model, Negative Binomial regression model, Zero-inflated Poisson regression model and Zero-inflated Negative Binomial regression model, were used to fit six constructed models. Then traffic accident frequency temporal-spatial analysis model was determined in terms of goodness of fit test.
(3) Accident severity is the dependent variable, which is a categorical variable with three categories, including fatal accident, injured accident and only property damage accident. Of thirteen candidate independent variables obtained from three aspects:time, road spatial structure and traffic operation environment. The combined stepwise method was used to analyse the significant correlation between dependent variable and independent variables. The results show that seven independent variables are significant associated with dependent variable. Then traffic accident severity spatial-temporal analysis model for expressway based on cumulative Logistic model was built. Finally, the developed model was tested from goodness of fit and predictive accuracy.
(4) On the basis of prevention measures in 2005, three candidate prevention schemes were put forward. The traffic accident frequency temporal-spatial analysis models and traffic accident severity temporal-spatial analysis model developed in Chapter 4 were used to re-estimate the accident frequency and severity under the condition of four prevention schemes. Finally, prevention effects of four prevention schemes were analysed both with and without traffic safety measures.
(5) According to the loss cost of traffic accident and traffic safety facilities, the comprehensive benefit of traffic safety prevention schemes was analysed. On the basis of four prevention schemes described in Chapter 5, the cost-effectiveness ratio was used to evaluate the economic effects of four candidate prevention schemes. A Sensitivity analysis was used to search the significant influencing factors which can influence the cost-effectiveness ratio.
从20世纪90年代起,我国开始对事故多发段进行研究,在借鉴、吸收国外已有研究成果的基础上,提出了一些新的事故多发段鉴别方法,为交通事故多发段的排查和整治等微观交通安全研究进行了有益的探索。但是,目前的研究缺乏对事故多发段进行系统、深入的理论研究,不仅没有对事故多发段的定义形成统一标准,而且没有对事故多发段的产生机理和改善研究进行详细剖析。因此,以典型事故多发段为研究对象,分析交通事故特征与道路空间结构、交通运行环境等因素之间的关系,剖析交通事故的形成机理,基于事故产生机理提出交通事故预防措施并预测其预防效果,是目前交通安全领域研究迫切需要解决的问题之一。
此外,随着2004年《国家高速公路网规划》出台以及随后的各省(市、自治区)高速公路网规划的相继出台,我国高速公路建设井然有序、合理推进,已经从满足需求式的发展建设模式转变为专业化布局式的网络化发展建设模式。截止2009年底,我国高速公路里程达到6.5万公里,东部地区高速公路网络已经形成,中部地区高速公路网络的雏形已经显现,西部地区高速公路网络的骨架已经形成。随着我国高速公路网络的逐渐完善,高速公路管理工作的中心逐渐从建设方面转移到运营和安全管理方面,高速公路的高效运输和安全运营将成为交通运输部门今后的主要工作。
因此,深入研究高速公路交通事故发生的规律,特别是典型交通事故多发段,不仅可以揭示高速公路交通事故发生的机理,有助于明确道路安全隐患；而且可以根据道路安全隐患有针对性地制定预防措施,降低交通事故数量及其伤害程度,为预防高速公路交通事故奠定理论基础。
在此背景下,对以下五个方面的内容进行深入研究：
(1)阐述高速公路交通事故致因机理,交通事故是由人、车、路和环境组成的动态系统失衡状态下的产物；总结国内外学者的相关研究成果,分别从人的因素、车辆因素、道路条件因素和环境因素4个方面详细分析高速公路交通事故的影响因素。
(2)从时间和道路空间结构两个方面选择9个候选自变量,并根据路段长度划分方法的不同,分别从路段长度一致和路段坡度一致两个角度,分别构建交通事故起数的时段、周日和月分布模型,分析交通事故与时间、道路空间结构和交通运行环境等因素之间的关系；分别运用泊松回归模型、负二项回归模型、零堆积泊松回归模型和零堆积负二项回归模型拟合交通事故起数时段、周日和月分布模型,根据模型的拟合优度检验,确定模型的最佳形式,从而构建交通事故起数时空分析模型。
(3)根据我国的实际情况,确定交通事故严重程度的分类标准；从时间、道路空间结构和交通运行环境等方面初步选择13个候选自变量,建立基于累积Logistic回归模型的高速公路交通事故严重程度时空分析模型,从成比例检验、拟合优度检验和预测准确度3个方面对模型进行检验。
(4)以某典型交通事故多发段K39+180-K52+180为研究对象,并在2005年二期预防措施的基础上,提出3种预防措施备选方案；运用第四章建立的交通事故起数模型和交通事故严重程度模型,分别预测4种预防措施方案的交通事故起数和严重程度,采用事前事后对比分析法,从交通事故起数和交通事故严重程度两个方面,分析4种预防措施方案的预防效果。
(5)根据交通事故损失成本和交通安全设施成本,分析交通事故预防措施方案综合效益的分析方法,以及不确定性因素对综合效益的敏感性分析；根据第五章提出的4种预防措施方案,分析4种预防措施方案的综合效益,并分别运用单因素敏感性分析和多因素敏感性分析,分析不确定性因素对综合效益的影响程度。
With the rapid development of our national society and economy, the construction of expressway has also made remarkable achievements. The rapid development of expressway has greatly improved the overall technological level of the highway network and optimized the transportation structure, which has played an important role in alleviating bottlenecks of transportation and has promoted the further economic development and social progress. However, the expressway has been plaguing our managers and users by its high accident rates and casualty rates. In particular, the implementation of develop-the-west strategy, the mileage of expressway in mountain areas is increasing, and the proportion of expressway in mountain areas is growing. Owing to the limitation of geographic and geomorphic conditions in heavy mountainous areas, highway geometric design of expressway in mountain areas will inevitably use some limit design indicators, resulting in traffic accidents occurred frequently in some sections, which become accident-prone locations.
Since the 1990s, some researchers began to study the accident-prone location, and put forward some methods of identifying the accident-prone location based on extensive foreign existing research, which were useful exploration for the investigation and remediation of accident-prone location. However, present studies are short of systematic and in-depth theoretical research for the accident-prone location. Not only there is no standard definition of the accident-prone location, but also there is no detailed analysis of formation mechanism and prevention research for the accident-prone location. Therefore, it is necessary to select the typical accident-prone location, and analyze the relationship of the characteristics of traffic accidents and some influencing factors, such as highway spatial structure, traffic operation environment, and analyze the formation mechanism of traffic accidents, and put forward some prevention measures of traffic accidents, and predict prevention effects of prevention measures, which become an important and hot problem in the field of traffic safety.
In addition, with the issue of the national expressway network planning in 2004 and the subsequent issue of the expressway network planning of each provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities), the construction of expressway in China are in order, and the development and construction pattern has moved from contented demand type to professional layout type. By the end of 2009, there is 6.5 million kilometers expressway in China, and expressway network in the eastern region has been formed, and the basic expressway network in the central region has already appeared, and the skeleton expressway network in the western region has been formed. With the gradual improvement of expressway network in China, the central work of expressway management department is transferring from the construction to the operation and management, and the efficient transportation and safe operation of expressway will be the main work in the future.
Therefore, the profound study of the laws of expressway traffic accidents, in particular, the typical accident-prone location, can not only reveal the mechanism of expressway traffic accidents and contribute to determine potential safety hazard, but also formulate some targeted improvement measures in order to reduce the number of traffic accident and mitigate accident severity, and lay the theoretical basis for traffic accident prevention.
In this context, the main content of this dissertation is summarized as follows:
(1) The mechanism of cause of traffic accident for expressway was described, which is the imbalance product of the dynamic system composed of people, vehicles, roads and environment. Then, research findings of some scholars at home and abroad were summarized from four aspects:human factors, vehicle factors, road conditions and environmental factors.
(2) In order to analyse the relationship between the number of traffic accidents and potential influencing factors, nine independent variables were selected, and two kinds of different section divided method were adopted, which produced 1 km fixed-length segment and the longitudinal grade consistent segment. Three general form of traffic accident frequency temporal-spatial model were constructed, which are traffic accident frequency hourly distribution model, traffic accident frequency weekly distribution model and traffic accident frequency monthly distribution model. Four statistical model, which were Poisson regression model, Negative Binomial regression model, Zero-inflated Poisson regression model and Zero-inflated Negative Binomial regression model, were used to fit six constructed models. Then traffic accident frequency temporal-spatial analysis model was determined in terms of goodness of fit test.
(3) Accident severity is the dependent variable, which is a categorical variable with three categories, including fatal accident, injured accident and only property damage accident. Of thirteen candidate independent variables obtained from three aspects:time, road spatial structure and traffic operation environment. The combined stepwise method was used to analyse the significant correlation between dependent variable and independent variables. The results show that seven independent variables are significant associated with dependent variable. Then traffic accident severity spatial-temporal analysis model for expressway based on cumulative Logistic model was built. Finally, the developed model was tested from goodness of fit and predictive accuracy.
(4) On the basis of prevention measures in 2005, three candidate prevention schemes were put forward. The traffic accident frequency temporal-spatial analysis models and traffic accident severity temporal-spatial analysis model developed in Chapter 4 were used to re-estimate the accident frequency and severity under the condition of four prevention schemes. Finally, prevention effects of four prevention schemes were analysed both with and without traffic safety measures.
(5) According to the loss cost of traffic accident and traffic safety facilities, the comprehensive benefit of traffic safety prevention schemes was analysed. On the basis of four prevention schemes described in Chapter 5, the cost-effectiveness ratio was used to evaluate the economic effects of four candidate prevention schemes. A Sensitivity analysis was used to search the significant influencing factors which can influence the cost-effectiveness ratio.
引文
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