高速公路隧道小客车运行速度预测模型研究
|
摘要
近年来,随着西部高速公路建设快速发展,隧道占高速公路建设里程的比重越来越大。根据统计分析,隧道内的事故比例明显高于其它路段,其中,隧道进出口处的事故远高于隧道内部。对隧道路段的安全性评价越来越引起重视。遗憾的是,《公路项目安全性评价指南》对隧道路段的运行速度并未作出规定。因此,对隧道路段运行速度的预测模型进行研究显得尤为重要。
本论文首先从驾驶人、车辆、道路和环境四个方面分析了影响隧道路段运行速度的因素；根据公路隧道的划分及建模的需要,用非接触式速度仪调查车辆在短隧道、中隧道、长隧道、特长隧道运行的连续速度。根据速度的变化规律,对长隧道、特长隧道进行隧道区段划分,划分了7个特征点,对不同的断面进行速度、交通量采集,确定各特征点处的V85,速度,为后面模型参数的标定提供具有统计意义的运行速度。
其次,在隧道路段运行速度变化趋势分析下,从道路空间结构、交通运行环境两个方面选择11个自变量进行分析和量化,对自变量和运行速度进行单因素分析,检验自变量对运行速度是否存在显著影响。挑选出对运行速度存在显著影响的因子,进行共线性诊断,把非共线性、与因变量显著相关的因子纳入到多元回归模型中,建立隧道进出口及隧道内部运行速度预测模型。
最后,选取西安-汉中方向隧道路段,对第四章预测模型进行参数标定及检验,经过检验,发现建立的模型对隧道路段运行速度拟合较好,建立模型的思路和方法可用。
In recent years, with the rapid development of construction of western expressway, the proportion of tunnel is gradually increasing. According to the statistical analysis, the ratio of accidence happened in tunnels is higher than other sections significantly. Especially the accidences happened in entrance and exit of tunnels is much more in internal of tunnels. The safety evaluation of tunnel section is concerned increasingly. While the operating speed has not regulated in Guidelines for Safety Audit of Highway. Therefore studying on the prediction model of operating speed of tunnel section is especially important.
Firstly, the influence factors of speed in tunnel are analyzed from four aspects, which including drivers, vehicles, roads and traffic environment. The continuous speed in tunnels of different length is investigated by using non-contact device to meet the need of division of expressway tunnels and modeling. Then according to variation of speed, this paper divides longer and longest tunnel to seven sections and survey the speed on that seven feature points, final to ascertain v85 of each characteristic point.
Secondly, under the analysis of the growing trend of speed in tunnel, this paper chooses eleven dependent variables from spatial structure of road and traffic environment, and figure up each variables, then analysis the influence of single factor to speed to building the model from operating speed and each variable. And tested the variable whether effected operating-speed significantly. Selected the factors that affect operating speed greatly and non collinear, and brought it in multiple regression to building the model of operating speed in tunnel. Finally, figure up the parameters of model.
Finally, chose the tunnel of xi-han expressway, figure the parameters of operating speed model of fourth chapter. The established model fitted on the tunnel road speed better, so the ideas and method was available.
本论文首先从驾驶人、车辆、道路和环境四个方面分析了影响隧道路段运行速度的因素；根据公路隧道的划分及建模的需要,用非接触式速度仪调查车辆在短隧道、中隧道、长隧道、特长隧道运行的连续速度。根据速度的变化规律,对长隧道、特长隧道进行隧道区段划分,划分了7个特征点,对不同的断面进行速度、交通量采集,确定各特征点处的V85,速度,为后面模型参数的标定提供具有统计意义的运行速度。
其次,在隧道路段运行速度变化趋势分析下,从道路空间结构、交通运行环境两个方面选择11个自变量进行分析和量化,对自变量和运行速度进行单因素分析,检验自变量对运行速度是否存在显著影响。挑选出对运行速度存在显著影响的因子,进行共线性诊断,把非共线性、与因变量显著相关的因子纳入到多元回归模型中,建立隧道进出口及隧道内部运行速度预测模型。
最后,选取西安-汉中方向隧道路段,对第四章预测模型进行参数标定及检验,经过检验,发现建立的模型对隧道路段运行速度拟合较好,建立模型的思路和方法可用。
In recent years, with the rapid development of construction of western expressway, the proportion of tunnel is gradually increasing. According to the statistical analysis, the ratio of accidence happened in tunnels is higher than other sections significantly. Especially the accidences happened in entrance and exit of tunnels is much more in internal of tunnels. The safety evaluation of tunnel section is concerned increasingly. While the operating speed has not regulated in Guidelines for Safety Audit of Highway. Therefore studying on the prediction model of operating speed of tunnel section is especially important.
Firstly, the influence factors of speed in tunnel are analyzed from four aspects, which including drivers, vehicles, roads and traffic environment. The continuous speed in tunnels of different length is investigated by using non-contact device to meet the need of division of expressway tunnels and modeling. Then according to variation of speed, this paper divides longer and longest tunnel to seven sections and survey the speed on that seven feature points, final to ascertain v85 of each characteristic point.
Secondly, under the analysis of the growing trend of speed in tunnel, this paper chooses eleven dependent variables from spatial structure of road and traffic environment, and figure up each variables, then analysis the influence of single factor to speed to building the model from operating speed and each variable. And tested the variable whether effected operating-speed significantly. Selected the factors that affect operating speed greatly and non collinear, and brought it in multiple regression to building the model of operating speed in tunnel. Finally, figure up the parameters of model.
Finally, chose the tunnel of xi-han expressway, figure the parameters of operating speed model of fourth chapter. The established model fitted on the tunnel road speed better, so the ideas and method was available.
引文
[1]孟斯硕.中国高速公路里程未来两年望达世界第一[N].第一财经日报,2010.12.29.
[2]张生瑞,马壮林.高速公路隧道交通环境评价指标体系[J].长安大学学报(自然科学版),2006,26(2)：77-80
[3]张生瑞,马壮林,徐景翠.高速公路隧道内交通事故分布规律[J].长安大学学报(自然科学版),2008,28(4)：74-78.
[4]尚荣丽,张生瑞.高速公路隧道交通安全保障系统的研究[J].公路,2006,(12)：127-130.
[5]高瑛穗.雪山隧道行车特性分析[D].台湾：国立中央大学,民国98年.
[6]王火明,孙连军,王强国.运行车速理论在公路线形设计中的运用研究[J].路基工程,2007,(5)：47-50.
[7]JTG/T B05-2004,公路项目安全性评价指南[S].北京：人民交通出版社,2004.
[8]Lamm, R., Choueiri, E.M., Hayward, J.C., Paluri, A. Possible design procedure to promote design consistency in highway geometric design on two-lane rural road[J]. Transportation Research Record 1195,111-122.
[9]Islam, M.N., Seneviratne, P.N. Evaluation of design consistency of two-lane rural highways[J]. ITE J.,1994,64(2):28-31.
[10]McFadden, J., Elefteriadou, L. Evaluating horizontal alignment design consistency of two-lane rural highways:development of new procedure[J]. Transportation Research Record 1737,9-17.
[11]Fitzpatrick, K., et al. Speed prediction for two-lane rural highways. Final Rep. FHWA-RD-99-171,2000, Mclean, Va.
[12]Gibreel, G., Easa, S. M., AI-Dimeery, LA. Prediction of operating speed oil three dimensional highway alignments[J]. J. Transp. Eng.,2001,127(1):21-30.
[13]Lamm, R. and Choueiri, E.M., Recommendations for Evaluating Horizontal Design Consistency Based on Investigations in the State of New York. Transportation Research Record:Journal of Transportation Research Board No.1122, Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C.,1987, pp.68-78.
[14]Lamm, R. and Choueiri, E.M., Recommendations for Evaluating Horizontal Design Consistency Based on Investigations in the State of New York. Transportation Research Record:Journal of Transportation Research Board No.1122, Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C.,1987, pp.68-78.
[15]Lamm, R., B. Psarianos, T. Mailaender, Highway Design and Traffic Safety Engineering Handbook, McGraw Hill Inc., New York.,1999.
[16]Morrall, J. and Talarico, R.J., Side Friction Demanded and Margins of Safety on Horizontal Curves, Transportation Research Record:Journal of Transportation Research Board No.1435, Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C.,1994, pp 145-152.
[17]Transportation Association of Canada, Geometric Design Guide for Canadian Roads, Transportation Association of Canada, Ottawa, Ontario,1999 with updates published in 2002.
[18]Ottesen, J.L., R.A. Krammes, Speed-Profile Model for a Design-Consistency Evaluation Procedure in the United States Transportation Research Record:Journal of Transportation Research Board No.1701,Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C.,2000, pp. 76-85.
[19]Federal Highway Administration, Speed Prediction for Two-Lane Rural Highways. Publication No.99-171, FHWA, US Department of Transportation, Washington, D.C., 2000.
[20]Kanellaidis, G., Golias, J. and Efstathiadis, S., Driver's speed behaviour on rural road curves, Traffic Engineering and Control, Vol.31 (7/8),1990, pp.414-415.
[21]Islam, M.N and Seneiratne, P.N., Evaluation of design consistency on two-lane highways, Institute of Transportation Engineers Journal, Vol.64 (2),1994, pp.28-31.
[22]FHWA.2000. Speed prediction for two-lane rural highways. Publication 99-171,Federal Highway administration (FHWA), US Department of Transportation, Washington, D.C.
[23]钟小明,荣建,刘小明,周荣贵.高速公路弯坡路段小客车自由流运行速度模型研究[J].公路交通科技,2004,21(12)：84-88.
[24]钟小明,元海英,荣建,刘小明.用于路线设计的小客车速度模型研究[J].北京工业大学学报,2005,31(2)：155-160.
[25]钟小明.平曲线半径及纵坡对高速公路自由流运行速度的影响[D].北京：北京工业大学建筑工程学院,2003.
[26]钟小明,刘小明,荣建,陈永胜,孙小瑞.基于高速公路路线设计一致性的中型卡车运行速度模型研究[J].公路交通科技,2005,22(3)：92-96.
[27]叶亚丽,许金良,杨宏志,胡万能.双车道二级公路小半径曲线段“运行速度-半径”模型研究[J].公路,2009,(4).
[28]周荣贵,孙家凤,吴万阳,王书灵.高速公路纵坡坡度与运行速度的关系[J].公路交通科技,2003,20(4).
[29]许金良,叶亚丽,苏英平,杨宏志.双车道二级公路纵坡段车辆运行速度预测模型[J].中国公路学报,2008,21(6)：31-36.
[30]罗满良,方靖,霍明.公路几何线形特征点对运行速度的影响研究[J].公路交通科技(应用技术版),2008,(07).
[31]杨少伟,许金良,杨宏志.考虑平、纵、横三方面关系的横向加速度变化率[J].中国公路学报,1999,10(4),12-16.
[32]杨少伟,许金良,杨宏志,潘兵宏.横向加速度变化率在公路设计中的控制和评价[J].西安公路交通大学学报,2001,(1),46-48.
[33]符锌砂.理论运行速度与公路线形设计及评价方法研究[D].西安：长安大学,2008.
[34]张生瑞,赵友功,王超深.基于速度控制的高速公路隧道交通安全策略[J].长安大学学报(自然科学版),2009,29(6)：74-76.
[35]赵友功.高速公路隧道速度特性分析及安全策略研究[D].西安：长安大学,2010.
[36]阎莹,张宇辉,郭忠印.基于运行速度的隧道进出口线形安全性评价[J].长安大学学报(自然科学版),2010,30(4)：72-76.
[37]祝站东,荣建,周伟.高速公路隧道路段小客车运行速度模型研究[J].公路交通科技,2010,27(7)：123-127.
[38]方靖,汪双杰,祝站东,周荣贵.高速公路隧道路段大型车运行速度模型[J].交通运输工程学报,2010,10(3)：90-93.
[39]张晋伟.高速公路隧道及互通区运行车速模型研究[D].重庆：重庆交通大学,2009.
[40]张生瑞.交通流理论与方法[M].北京：中国铁道出版社,2010,9：64-67.
[41]张殿业.驾驶人动态视野与行车安全可靠度[J].西南交通大学学报,2000,35(3)：319-322.
[42]刘兵.基于驾驶人视知觉的车速控制和车道保持机理研究[D].武汉：武汉理工大学,2008.
[43]王海林,刘仲国,朱开曼.影响汽车驾驶人行车安全的内在因素分析[J].汽车安全,2002,(1)：32-35,42.
[44]彭巍.高等级公路景观设计方法与评价体系的研究[D].西安：长安大学,1998.
[45]潘兵宏,赵一飞,梁孝忠.动视觉原理在公路线形设计中的应用[J].长安大学学报,2004,(6)：20-22.
[46]韩玉昌等.汽车交通心理学[M].北京：人民交通出版社,2003.
[47]交通部公路科学研究院.西部地区公路运行速度特征与应用模型的研究(分报告1-公路运行速度标准车型研究).北京：交通部公路科学研究院,2009.
[48]JTGB01-2003,公路工程技术标准[S].北京：人民交通出版社,2003.
[49]金增曲珍.运行速度与公路线形连续性研究[D].成都：西南交通大学,2009.
[50]JTG D70-2004,公路隧道设计规范[S].北京：人民交通出版社,2004.
[51]JTG 026.1-1999,公路隧道通风照明设计规范[S].北京：人民交通出版社,2000
[52]张蕾.高速公路长大隧道交通流特性分析[D].西安：长安大学,2010
[53]周娜.高速公路隧道群交通运行环境分析与评估研究[D].西安：长安大学,2010.
[54]殷瑞华,朱光仪.浅谈公路隧道线形的安全设计[J].公路,2003,(3)：140-142
[55]JTGD70-2004,公路隧道设计规范[S].北京：人民交通出版社,2004
[56]李岳林,王生昌.交通运输环境污染与控制[M].北京：机械工业出版社,2003.
[57]愈宇萍,徐忠阳.隧道洞口交通安全影响因素分析与对策[J].交通标准化,2006,(152)：4.
[58]王毅才.公路隧道总体设计与分项设计的制约关系分析[A].中国土木工程学会隧道及地下工程分会第十届年会[C].铁道工程学报,1998,增刊：67-71
[59]马壮林.高速公路隧道交通事故分析及预防对策[D].西安：长安大学,2006.
[60]程国柱.高速道路车速限制方法研究[D].哈尔滨：哈尔滨工业大学,2007.
[61]魏道新.山区双车道公路路线设计车型分类标准[J].公路交通科技,2008,25(12)：93-96.
[62]中国公路学会.交通工程手册.人民交通出版社,2001：300,372-374,98.
[63]马壮林.高速公路交通事故时空分析模型及其预测方法[J].北京：北京交通大学,2010
[64]胡圣能,李振霞,尹春娥.基于曲率变化率的公路线形设计安全评价[J].华北水利水电学院学报,2010,13(2)：43-46.
[65]TRB. Highway Capacity Manual 2000[R].National Research Council, Washington D.C., USA 2000.
[2]张生瑞,马壮林.高速公路隧道交通环境评价指标体系[J].长安大学学报(自然科学版),2006,26(2)：77-80
[3]张生瑞,马壮林,徐景翠.高速公路隧道内交通事故分布规律[J].长安大学学报(自然科学版),2008,28(4)：74-78.
[4]尚荣丽,张生瑞.高速公路隧道交通安全保障系统的研究[J].公路,2006,(12)：127-130.
[5]高瑛穗.雪山隧道行车特性分析[D].台湾：国立中央大学,民国98年.
[6]王火明,孙连军,王强国.运行车速理论在公路线形设计中的运用研究[J].路基工程,2007,(5)：47-50.
[7]JTG/T B05-2004,公路项目安全性评价指南[S].北京：人民交通出版社,2004.
[8]Lamm, R., Choueiri, E.M., Hayward, J.C., Paluri, A. Possible design procedure to promote design consistency in highway geometric design on two-lane rural road[J]. Transportation Research Record 1195,111-122.
[9]Islam, M.N., Seneviratne, P.N. Evaluation of design consistency of two-lane rural highways[J]. ITE J.,1994,64(2):28-31.
[10]McFadden, J., Elefteriadou, L. Evaluating horizontal alignment design consistency of two-lane rural highways:development of new procedure[J]. Transportation Research Record 1737,9-17.
[11]Fitzpatrick, K., et al. Speed prediction for two-lane rural highways. Final Rep. FHWA-RD-99-171,2000, Mclean, Va.
[12]Gibreel, G., Easa, S. M., AI-Dimeery, LA. Prediction of operating speed oil three dimensional highway alignments[J]. J. Transp. Eng.,2001,127(1):21-30.
[13]Lamm, R. and Choueiri, E.M., Recommendations for Evaluating Horizontal Design Consistency Based on Investigations in the State of New York. Transportation Research Record:Journal of Transportation Research Board No.1122, Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C.,1987, pp.68-78.
[14]Lamm, R. and Choueiri, E.M., Recommendations for Evaluating Horizontal Design Consistency Based on Investigations in the State of New York. Transportation Research Record:Journal of Transportation Research Board No.1122, Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C.,1987, pp.68-78.
[15]Lamm, R., B. Psarianos, T. Mailaender, Highway Design and Traffic Safety Engineering Handbook, McGraw Hill Inc., New York.,1999.
[16]Morrall, J. and Talarico, R.J., Side Friction Demanded and Margins of Safety on Horizontal Curves, Transportation Research Record:Journal of Transportation Research Board No.1435, Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C.,1994, pp 145-152.
[17]Transportation Association of Canada, Geometric Design Guide for Canadian Roads, Transportation Association of Canada, Ottawa, Ontario,1999 with updates published in 2002.
[18]Ottesen, J.L., R.A. Krammes, Speed-Profile Model for a Design-Consistency Evaluation Procedure in the United States Transportation Research Record:Journal of Transportation Research Board No.1701,Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C.,2000, pp. 76-85.
[19]Federal Highway Administration, Speed Prediction for Two-Lane Rural Highways. Publication No.99-171, FHWA, US Department of Transportation, Washington, D.C., 2000.
[20]Kanellaidis, G., Golias, J. and Efstathiadis, S., Driver's speed behaviour on rural road curves, Traffic Engineering and Control, Vol.31 (7/8),1990, pp.414-415.
[21]Islam, M.N and Seneiratne, P.N., Evaluation of design consistency on two-lane highways, Institute of Transportation Engineers Journal, Vol.64 (2),1994, pp.28-31.
[22]FHWA.2000. Speed prediction for two-lane rural highways. Publication 99-171,Federal Highway administration (FHWA), US Department of Transportation, Washington, D.C.
[23]钟小明,荣建,刘小明,周荣贵.高速公路弯坡路段小客车自由流运行速度模型研究[J].公路交通科技,2004,21(12)：84-88.
[24]钟小明,元海英,荣建,刘小明.用于路线设计的小客车速度模型研究[J].北京工业大学学报,2005,31(2)：155-160.
[25]钟小明.平曲线半径及纵坡对高速公路自由流运行速度的影响[D].北京：北京工业大学建筑工程学院,2003.
[26]钟小明,刘小明,荣建,陈永胜,孙小瑞.基于高速公路路线设计一致性的中型卡车运行速度模型研究[J].公路交通科技,2005,22(3)：92-96.
[27]叶亚丽,许金良,杨宏志,胡万能.双车道二级公路小半径曲线段“运行速度-半径”模型研究[J].公路,2009,(4).
[28]周荣贵,孙家凤,吴万阳,王书灵.高速公路纵坡坡度与运行速度的关系[J].公路交通科技,2003,20(4).
[29]许金良,叶亚丽,苏英平,杨宏志.双车道二级公路纵坡段车辆运行速度预测模型[J].中国公路学报,2008,21(6)：31-36.
[30]罗满良,方靖,霍明.公路几何线形特征点对运行速度的影响研究[J].公路交通科技(应用技术版),2008,(07).
[31]杨少伟,许金良,杨宏志.考虑平、纵、横三方面关系的横向加速度变化率[J].中国公路学报,1999,10(4),12-16.
[32]杨少伟,许金良,杨宏志,潘兵宏.横向加速度变化率在公路设计中的控制和评价[J].西安公路交通大学学报,2001,(1),46-48.
[33]符锌砂.理论运行速度与公路线形设计及评价方法研究[D].西安：长安大学,2008.
[34]张生瑞,赵友功,王超深.基于速度控制的高速公路隧道交通安全策略[J].长安大学学报(自然科学版),2009,29(6)：74-76.
[35]赵友功.高速公路隧道速度特性分析及安全策略研究[D].西安：长安大学,2010.
[36]阎莹,张宇辉,郭忠印.基于运行速度的隧道进出口线形安全性评价[J].长安大学学报(自然科学版),2010,30(4)：72-76.
[37]祝站东,荣建,周伟.高速公路隧道路段小客车运行速度模型研究[J].公路交通科技,2010,27(7)：123-127.
[38]方靖,汪双杰,祝站东,周荣贵.高速公路隧道路段大型车运行速度模型[J].交通运输工程学报,2010,10(3)：90-93.
[39]张晋伟.高速公路隧道及互通区运行车速模型研究[D].重庆：重庆交通大学,2009.
[40]张生瑞.交通流理论与方法[M].北京：中国铁道出版社,2010,9：64-67.
[41]张殿业.驾驶人动态视野与行车安全可靠度[J].西南交通大学学报,2000,35(3)：319-322.
[42]刘兵.基于驾驶人视知觉的车速控制和车道保持机理研究[D].武汉：武汉理工大学,2008.
[43]王海林,刘仲国,朱开曼.影响汽车驾驶人行车安全的内在因素分析[J].汽车安全,2002,(1)：32-35,42.
[44]彭巍.高等级公路景观设计方法与评价体系的研究[D].西安：长安大学,1998.
[45]潘兵宏,赵一飞,梁孝忠.动视觉原理在公路线形设计中的应用[J].长安大学学报,2004,(6)：20-22.
[46]韩玉昌等.汽车交通心理学[M].北京：人民交通出版社,2003.
[47]交通部公路科学研究院.西部地区公路运行速度特征与应用模型的研究(分报告1-公路运行速度标准车型研究).北京：交通部公路科学研究院,2009.
[48]JTGB01-2003,公路工程技术标准[S].北京：人民交通出版社,2003.
[49]金增曲珍.运行速度与公路线形连续性研究[D].成都：西南交通大学,2009.
[50]JTG D70-2004,公路隧道设计规范[S].北京：人民交通出版社,2004.
[51]JTG 026.1-1999,公路隧道通风照明设计规范[S].北京：人民交通出版社,2000
[52]张蕾.高速公路长大隧道交通流特性分析[D].西安：长安大学,2010
[53]周娜.高速公路隧道群交通运行环境分析与评估研究[D].西安：长安大学,2010.
[54]殷瑞华,朱光仪.浅谈公路隧道线形的安全设计[J].公路,2003,(3)：140-142
[55]JTGD70-2004,公路隧道设计规范[S].北京：人民交通出版社,2004
[56]李岳林,王生昌.交通运输环境污染与控制[M].北京：机械工业出版社,2003.
[57]愈宇萍,徐忠阳.隧道洞口交通安全影响因素分析与对策[J].交通标准化,2006,(152)：4.
[58]王毅才.公路隧道总体设计与分项设计的制约关系分析[A].中国土木工程学会隧道及地下工程分会第十届年会[C].铁道工程学报,1998,增刊：67-71
[59]马壮林.高速公路隧道交通事故分析及预防对策[D].西安：长安大学,2006.
[60]程国柱.高速道路车速限制方法研究[D].哈尔滨：哈尔滨工业大学,2007.
[61]魏道新.山区双车道公路路线设计车型分类标准[J].公路交通科技,2008,25(12)：93-96.
[62]中国公路学会.交通工程手册.人民交通出版社,2001：300,372-374,98.
[63]马壮林.高速公路交通事故时空分析模型及其预测方法[J].北京：北京交通大学,2010
[64]胡圣能,李振霞,尹春娥.基于曲率变化率的公路线形设计安全评价[J].华北水利水电学院学报,2010,13(2)：43-46.
[65]TRB. Highway Capacity Manual 2000[R].National Research Council, Washington D.C., USA 2000.