煤矿矿井安全仿真系统数学模型的研究
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摘要
一直以来,我国煤矿事故不断,给人民生命财产造成了重大损失,与当前正提倡的和谐社会建设严重不符。因此急需建立一个全面、准确的模型来对矿井瓦斯系统进行描述。模型建好之后就能在一定时间周期内对煤矿系统的瓦斯规律进行模拟仿真,提前预测。这样,当出现风险趋势时为相关工作人员及时预警,真正实现“预防为主、安全第一”的目标。
首先,本论文分析了各掘进工艺(如炮采、割煤等)对瓦斯涌的影响,同时对煤壁、落煤的瓦斯涌动态规律进行模型化,并建立了掘进工作面风流和采煤进度与瓦斯浓度关系的数学建模。
其次,考虑到建立的数学模型要具有精确性以及动态特性的要求,提出了基于指数拟合的概率预测模型来对复杂瓦斯系统进行建模预测,并与改进的灰色-概率模型进行了比较,模型的建立为采煤工作时调节工作面瓦斯浓度提供准确、定量的数学依据。建模预测的结果显示该方法预测精度较高。
最后,由于复杂混沌瓦斯系统的简化模型具有明显的局限性,难以对瓦斯进行长期准确预测,本文引入了分形理论对瓦斯系统进行分析研究。利用分形理论中最常用的R/S分析法,通过计算Hurst参数来确定该瓦斯系统的持久相关性(目前所表现出的变化趋势在将来的一段时间仍然保持该特性),计算结果表明持久相关性时间周期的过度期瓦斯浓度有突变可能,因此,在一个周期即将结束时就应该多加注意。本文所求出的时间序列的分形维D反应出了瓦斯时间序列的参差不齐的程度。
本文的创新点:提出基于指数拟合的概率预测模型对瓦斯系统进行研究;在研究瓦斯序列时引入了周期T,并给出了确定方法;在运用取得了良好预测效果。
The coal mine disasters have been continued for many years in China, resulting in heavy losses of people’s lives and property, which was in serious discordance with the recently promoted harmonious society. There is an urgent need to establish a more comprehensive and accurate mathematical model to describe the gas system. After the building of the model, it will be possible to simulate the emission law of the coal gas system within a certain period, and give forecast before a risk trend to the relevant working stuff, if so, the "prevention first, safety first" can be accurately implemented.
In First, in this paper, the excavation process on the impact of the emission of gas is also analyzed, such as the cannon picking technical and the coal shearing technical; the dynamic model of the coal gas emission from the coal wall and the falling of the coal is also given, and special focus was made on the modeling of the digging working face wind flow and the relationship between coal excavation process and the concentration of coal gas.
Second, considering of the accuracy and proper dynamics requirement of the math model, Exponential fitting-Probability prediction model was used for the modeling and prediction of complex gas system, so as to give accurate mathematical basis for the tuning and controlling of the concentration of coal gas in the working face in the process of coal excavation. The prediction is of high accuracy according to the result of the modeling and prediction.
At last, for complex and chaotic gas systems, such simplified model has obvious limitations; it is difficult to accurately predict the emission of the coal gas. Then the fractal geometry theory is introduced for the relevant study of the coal mine system, mainly using the theory of R / S analysis method common in the study of fractal geometry; by calculating the Hurst parameter to determine the persistence correlation of the gas system, the current variation trend will remain in a certain period of future time. After calculation, it is found that the period of the persistence correlation lasting an average of 28 days or so, a mutation might occur in the transition time between two periods; therefore, special attention should be paid when a period is near end. It is also calculated that fractal dimension D, which reflects the uneven degree of the time series of the gas.
The innovation of this paper is that, proposed probability based on exponential fitting forecast model system to study gas, when doing research on gas sequence, a period T and method to determine it was taken into consideration, thus desirable results were obtained.
首先,本论文分析了各掘进工艺(如炮采、割煤等)对瓦斯涌的影响,同时对煤壁、落煤的瓦斯涌动态规律进行模型化,并建立了掘进工作面风流和采煤进度与瓦斯浓度关系的数学建模。
其次,考虑到建立的数学模型要具有精确性以及动态特性的要求,提出了基于指数拟合的概率预测模型来对复杂瓦斯系统进行建模预测,并与改进的灰色-概率模型进行了比较,模型的建立为采煤工作时调节工作面瓦斯浓度提供准确、定量的数学依据。建模预测的结果显示该方法预测精度较高。
最后,由于复杂混沌瓦斯系统的简化模型具有明显的局限性,难以对瓦斯进行长期准确预测,本文引入了分形理论对瓦斯系统进行分析研究。利用分形理论中最常用的R/S分析法,通过计算Hurst参数来确定该瓦斯系统的持久相关性(目前所表现出的变化趋势在将来的一段时间仍然保持该特性),计算结果表明持久相关性时间周期的过度期瓦斯浓度有突变可能,因此,在一个周期即将结束时就应该多加注意。本文所求出的时间序列的分形维D反应出了瓦斯时间序列的参差不齐的程度。
本文的创新点:提出基于指数拟合的概率预测模型对瓦斯系统进行研究;在研究瓦斯序列时引入了周期T,并给出了确定方法;在运用取得了良好预测效果。
The coal mine disasters have been continued for many years in China, resulting in heavy losses of people’s lives and property, which was in serious discordance with the recently promoted harmonious society. There is an urgent need to establish a more comprehensive and accurate mathematical model to describe the gas system. After the building of the model, it will be possible to simulate the emission law of the coal gas system within a certain period, and give forecast before a risk trend to the relevant working stuff, if so, the "prevention first, safety first" can be accurately implemented.
In First, in this paper, the excavation process on the impact of the emission of gas is also analyzed, such as the cannon picking technical and the coal shearing technical; the dynamic model of the coal gas emission from the coal wall and the falling of the coal is also given, and special focus was made on the modeling of the digging working face wind flow and the relationship between coal excavation process and the concentration of coal gas.
Second, considering of the accuracy and proper dynamics requirement of the math model, Exponential fitting-Probability prediction model was used for the modeling and prediction of complex gas system, so as to give accurate mathematical basis for the tuning and controlling of the concentration of coal gas in the working face in the process of coal excavation. The prediction is of high accuracy according to the result of the modeling and prediction.
At last, for complex and chaotic gas systems, such simplified model has obvious limitations; it is difficult to accurately predict the emission of the coal gas. Then the fractal geometry theory is introduced for the relevant study of the coal mine system, mainly using the theory of R / S analysis method common in the study of fractal geometry; by calculating the Hurst parameter to determine the persistence correlation of the gas system, the current variation trend will remain in a certain period of future time. After calculation, it is found that the period of the persistence correlation lasting an average of 28 days or so, a mutation might occur in the transition time between two periods; therefore, special attention should be paid when a period is near end. It is also calculated that fractal dimension D, which reflects the uneven degree of the time series of the gas.
The innovation of this paper is that, proposed probability based on exponential fitting forecast model system to study gas, when doing research on gas sequence, a period T and method to determine it was taken into consideration, thus desirable results were obtained.
引文
1国家安全生产监督管理总局网站:http://www.chinasafety.gov.cn.
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4刘亮,刘毅,刘明举. 2002-2003年我国煤矿死亡事故统计分析[J].煤炭科学与技术. 2005,33(1):7-10.
5 Nick F. Pigeon Risk assessment and accident analysis [M]. Acted Psychological, Volume 68, Issues 1-3, September 1988, Pages 355-368.
6子荷.2005年矿难记录(一)[J].中国减灾. 2006,3:52-53.
7子荷.2005年矿难记录(二)[J].中国减灾. 2006,4:51-54.
8田教,庙延钢,王国华.2006年我国煤矿特大事故的统计分析[J].安全. 2007,12:27-30.
9刘明举,赵文武,魏建平.2006年我国煤矿瓦斯突出事故统计分析及防范措施[J].煤炭技术. 2008,27(Ⅱ):79-81.
10刘琦,徐义勇.2007年煤矿事故统计分析及预防对策[J].矿业安全与环保. 2009,36(2):82-84.
11胡社荣,浏海荣.中国煤矿超大死亡事故及其原因分析[J].中国矿业. 2009,18(5):99-103.
12韩存.计算机仿真技术在煤矿企业的应用.中国管理信息化.2007,10(4):25-27.
13魏绍敏.煤矿人因事故发生机理及防范对策研究[D].西安科技大学硕士论文.2004:26-34.
14 Robert A. Bare. Decision making and probabilistic risk assessment. Nuclear Engineering and Design, 1986, 93(2-3):341-348.
15 Nick F. Pigeon. Risk assessment and accident analysis. Acted Psychological, Volume 68, Issues 1-3, September 1988, Pages 355-368.
16杨中,朱明,刘兰翠,赵亚军.开滦矿区煤矿安全相关性分析及趋势预测[J].煤炭科学技术.2002,5:56-57.
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18付丽华,王晶.一元线性回归分析在煤矿企业中的应用[J].煤矿现代化.2006,3:87-88.
19褚莹.灰色马尔柯夫模型在煤矿安全事故预测中的应用初探[J].能源技术与管理.2006,1:18-20.
20 Belin, J.Measurement of the gas concentrations in coal (direct method), EUR 4670 DF, 1971, 39-56.
21吕贵春,马云东.矿井瓦斯涌出量预测的灰色建模法[J].中国安全科学学报.2004,10:22-2.
22孙冰,王小明.深部煤层瓦斯涌出量预测研究[J].中国煤层气.2008, 5(1):32-34.
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24王从陆,尹长林.基于GM (1, 1)模型的安全管理目标值确定方法[J].中国安全科学学报.2005,8:29-31.
25赵红梅,陈开岩,王超.关于我国煤矿百万吨死亡率的灰色预测探讨[J].矿业安全与环保.2006,8:76-79.
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27黄炜伟,王强,卢爽,刘振江.基于混沌时间序列的神经网络对瓦斯涌出量预测[J].煤炭工程.2005,5:7-9.
28 Bertard, C. Bruyet, B.Gunter, J. Determination of describable gas concentration of coal (direct method), International Journal of Rock Mechanics and Mining Science, 1970, 7(1):43-65.
29李江.煤矿动态安全评价及预测技术研究[D].中国矿业大学博士论文.2008:30-47.
30付建华.煤矿瓦斯灾害防治理论研究与工程实践[M].中国矿业大学出版社,2005:25-39.
31 NNSA. The first batch of review Comments for the Guangdong Day a Bay Nuclear Power Plant Probabilistic Safety Assessment report. 2001:1105-1121.
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34 Carol J. Bibler, James S.Marshall. Status of worldwide coal mine methane emissions and use. International of Coal Geology.1998 (35):283-310.
35曲方,刘克功,赵洪亮.基于煤壁瓦斯涌出初速度的综掘工作面瓦斯涌出量预测[J],煤矿安全,2004,35(8):1-4.
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2彭小亚,缪永正,卢小燕.我国矿难频发的原因及其对策[J].采矿技术. 2008,8(5):59-61.
3卫桂玲.中美矿难比较[J].当代经济. 2009,l(上):50-52.
4刘亮,刘毅,刘明举. 2002-2003年我国煤矿死亡事故统计分析[J].煤炭科学与技术. 2005,33(1):7-10.
5 Nick F. Pigeon Risk assessment and accident analysis [M]. Acted Psychological, Volume 68, Issues 1-3, September 1988, Pages 355-368.
6子荷.2005年矿难记录(一)[J].中国减灾. 2006,3:52-53.
7子荷.2005年矿难记录(二)[J].中国减灾. 2006,4:51-54.
8田教,庙延钢,王国华.2006年我国煤矿特大事故的统计分析[J].安全. 2007,12:27-30.
9刘明举,赵文武,魏建平.2006年我国煤矿瓦斯突出事故统计分析及防范措施[J].煤炭技术. 2008,27(Ⅱ):79-81.
10刘琦,徐义勇.2007年煤矿事故统计分析及预防对策[J].矿业安全与环保. 2009,36(2):82-84.
11胡社荣,浏海荣.中国煤矿超大死亡事故及其原因分析[J].中国矿业. 2009,18(5):99-103.
12韩存.计算机仿真技术在煤矿企业的应用.中国管理信息化.2007,10(4):25-27.
13魏绍敏.煤矿人因事故发生机理及防范对策研究[D].西安科技大学硕士论文.2004:26-34.
14 Robert A. Bare. Decision making and probabilistic risk assessment. Nuclear Engineering and Design, 1986, 93(2-3):341-348.
15 Nick F. Pigeon. Risk assessment and accident analysis. Acted Psychological, Volume 68, Issues 1-3, September 1988, Pages 355-368.
16杨中,朱明,刘兰翠,赵亚军.开滦矿区煤矿安全相关性分析及趋势预测[J].煤炭科学技术.2002,5:56-57.
17张超,陆愈实,章博.影响因素对煤矿百万吨死亡率的回归分析及其应用[J].中国安全生产科学技术.2005,6:91-95.
18付丽华,王晶.一元线性回归分析在煤矿企业中的应用[J].煤矿现代化.2006,3:87-88.
19褚莹.灰色马尔柯夫模型在煤矿安全事故预测中的应用初探[J].能源技术与管理.2006,1:18-20.
20 Belin, J.Measurement of the gas concentrations in coal (direct method), EUR 4670 DF, 1971, 39-56.
21吕贵春,马云东.矿井瓦斯涌出量预测的灰色建模法[J].中国安全科学学报.2004,10:22-2.
22孙冰,王小明.深部煤层瓦斯涌出量预测研究[J].中国煤层气.2008, 5(1):32-34.
23伍爱友,田云丽,宋译,何利文.灰色系统理论在矿井瓦斯涌出量预测中的应用[J].煤炭学报.2005,5:589-592.
24王从陆,尹长林.基于GM (1, 1)模型的安全管理目标值确定方法[J].中国安全科学学报.2005,8:29-31.
25赵红梅,陈开岩,王超.关于我国煤矿百万吨死亡率的灰色预测探讨[J].矿业安全与环保.2006,8:76-79.
26王金国,江洪清,高永奎.基于MATLAB的矿井涌水量神经网络预测方法及应用[J].煤炭技术.2004,7:67-68.
27黄炜伟,王强,卢爽,刘振江.基于混沌时间序列的神经网络对瓦斯涌出量预测[J].煤炭工程.2005,5:7-9.
28 Bertard, C. Bruyet, B.Gunter, J. Determination of describable gas concentration of coal (direct method), International Journal of Rock Mechanics and Mining Science, 1970, 7(1):43-65.
29李江.煤矿动态安全评价及预测技术研究[D].中国矿业大学博士论文.2008:30-47.
30付建华.煤矿瓦斯灾害防治理论研究与工程实践[M].中国矿业大学出版社,2005:25-39.
31 NNSA. The first batch of review Comments for the Guangdong Day a Bay Nuclear Power Plant Probabilistic Safety Assessment report. 2001:1105-1121.
32 W. Hatton, M. K. G. Whitley. Risk assessment applied to coal tonnage estimation in the United Kingdom. International Journal of Rock Mechanics and Mining Science & Aeromechanics Abstracts, 1995, 32(6):276.
33 H.S.B Düzgün. Analysis of roof fall hazards and risk assessment for Zonguldak coal basin underground mines. International Journal of coal Geology Volume 64Issues 1-217 October 2005 Pages 104-115.
34 Carol J. Bibler, James S.Marshall. Status of worldwide coal mine methane emissions and use. International of Coal Geology.1998 (35):283-310.
35曲方,刘克功,赵洪亮.基于煤壁瓦斯涌出初速度的综掘工作面瓦斯涌出量预测[J],煤矿安全,2004,35(8):1-4.
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