国际石油价格与中国石油政策研究
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摘要
自200 1年“9.11”事件至2002年初,国际原油价格持续在每桶20美元的低迷状态后,伴随着亚洲金融危机的结束和全球经济的快速增长开始稳步上升。到2005年8月底,受美国墨西哥湾“卡特里娜”飓风影响,油价更是快速突破每桶70美元。2007年9月13日突破了每桶80美元、10月25日突破了每桶90美元。反复波动、剧烈上涨的国际油价对石油需求日益增加的中国造成了不可避免的冲击。
鉴于此,本文从研究国际石油市场入手,深入分析国际油价特性,进而把握国际油价走势,结合油价波动给中国经济所带来的诸多影响,探讨中国石油政策的改革方向,系统地提出了中国石油政策的具体措施与建议,以提高中国经济对国际油价冲击的抵御能力与适应能力。
首先,本文以描述性统计的方式,概述了国际石油资源的分布格局以及国际石油的供需形势,通过对国际石油生产与消费地区的对比分析,本文认为,虽然在石油资源的总体供需层面上,国际石油市场在长期处于均衡状态,但由于石油资源分布的不平衡以及地域上的差异,国际石油市场在短期均衡状态非常脆弱,可调节的机动产油能力愈来愈紧张,突发事件对于石油价格变化的影响十分突出。因此,国际石油市场未来总体上有利于石油供需稳定的格局中,将仍存在短期或局部地区出现石油供给中断、石油价格大幅上涨的可能性。
为了对这一结论进行更科学的论证,接下来本文采用时间序列的分析方法,对国际石油价格的走势分别进行了短期与长期的预测。本文选取了2001年至2007年的WTI月度数据作为样本数据,进行短期预测。通过数据检验发现,这一时期的数据满足随机步游过程的特征,回归后的预测结果表明,在未来的短期内国际石油价格将在每桶65至85美元的高价位间波动。为了预测国际石油价格的长期趋势,本文以1980年至2006年的WTI月度数据为样本,使用小波分解的方法剔除了石油价格中的随机波动,以SVR拟合油价总体走势,以余弦波模拟油价中的周期性波动,总体走势与周期性波动的叠加便反映了国际石油价格在均衡状态下的长期趋势,预测结果表明,在不存在外界随机干预的情况下,国际油价在长期中将处于稳定下降趋势。
在深入分析了国际石油价格波动特性与走势情况后,本文开始研究国际石油价格波动对中国宏观经济所造成的影响。通过建立向量误差修正模型(VECM),以WTI、中国GDP、进出口额及其第一、二、三产业增加值为变量,分析了国际油价波动对中国宏观经济所造成的影响。结论表明,国际油价波动对于中国第一产业的影响是强硬的、刚性的,中国第二产业对于国际石油价格的波动具有一定的适应性,而第三产业则对国际油价冲击具有较强的抵御能力,同时,中国的对外出口具有传导作用,扩大了国际油价对中国GDP的冲击效应。并由此结论提出了相应的针对性措施。
在分析了国际石油价格特性以及国际石油价格对中国宏观经济的影响后,本文分析研究了在国际石油价格剧烈波动下的中国石油价格政策措施。本文针对国际石油价格持续上涨的情况,研究了中国石油定价机制的改革方向与具体改革措施。本文认为中国石油定价机制,应在原油价格形成机制维持基本不变的基础上,首先实现国内成品油价格与国际市场的彻底接轨,同时加快成品油市场管理的法律法规建设,调整政府的价格管理职能,加快成品油流通管理体制改革,重点发展石油期货市场,逐步增强中国在国际石油市场的发言权。
最后,本文分析研究了中国石油其它相关政策,通过分析世界典型国家为应对油价攀升所制定的石油政策,并结合中国自身具体情况,本文提出了中国石油的供给政策、需求政策、运输政策、国际合作政策,包括积极建立石油战略储备、开发石油替代能源、实现石油进口地区多元化、增加国内石油供给、发展石油消费国的协作组织等方面的措施,以应对国际石油价格的短期剧烈波动,同时提高石油利用率,从而顺应国际石油市场变化的长期趋势,并且缓解石油资源分布不平衡对石油供应安全的不良影响。
Since the event "9.11" in 2001, the growth of the world economy dropped into a downward slidingboard, which directly resulted in a distinct decline of the demand for crude oil in the international oil market. However, at the beginning of 2002, international oil price started to rise steadily, after the downturn before. In the April 2006, international oil price expanded in a large extent, and breached the toll-gates of 70 and 75 dollars per barrel in succession in a short time. In 2007, international oil price turned to 70 dollars per barrel, taking a new thrust to 80-90 dollars per barrel. With reiterative fluctuation and fierce appreciation, international oil price will bring an innevitable impulse on China of which the demand for oil has been growing.
Consequently, this dissertation begins with a study on the international oil market, and takes a probe into the caricteristic of international oil price to grasps the future tendency of international oil price. After that, combining with the influences international oil price would bring to China, this dissertation researches the orientation for the reform of oil policy in China, and proposed a series of measures which should be tanken by China government systematically to enhance the resistibility and the flexibility of China economy when facing the fierce oil price fluctuation.
Firstly, this dissertation summarizes the distributing pattern of world oil resource and the matching situation of oil demand versus supply, by using the describing statistics. Through the camparison between the areas producing oil and those consuming oil, this dissertation makes a conclusion that, in the whole oil market, the oil supply will satisfy the oil demand in long term, however, because of the imbalance and the distinction in the oil distribution, actually, the oil market equilibrium represents to be rather frangible, and the adjustable mobile oil production becomes tighter, which would be easily impacted by unexpected incidents. Therefore, in principle, the international oil market will keep balance in the long term. At the same time, there still exists the probability of oil supply interruptions in some areas and impetuous oil price fluctuation in short term.
Secondly, to make a more scientific argumentation, this dissertation takes out the short-term and long-term forcasts for the international oil price trend, by applying time series analysis method. This dissertation choses the monthly WTI data from 2001 to 2007 as the samples, to make a short-term forcast. The result of the forcast shows that, in the future short term, international oil price will wander between the high price of 65 and 85 dollars per barrel. To make a long-term forcast, this dissertatio extends the sample time span to be 1980 and 2006. The approach provided is that, by using of the multi-scale wavelet decomposition, extract the signal of low frequency form the original oil price series and estimate it by a SVR model, however, adding the well-regulated signals of high frequency to the forecasting process. The result of the approach shows that, international oil price will enter into a steady downward trend in long term without the random interruption.
Thirdly, after grasping the charicteristic and tendency of international oil price, this dissertation starts to study the impact from oil price fluctuations on the macro economy of China.This dissertation applies VECM to analyse the influence oil price fluctuation bring to China, using variables including World Oil Price, GDP, Import and Export Volume, Output of the first the second and the tertiary industry. The results from the Impulse response Function and Variance decomposition analysis based on VECM show that, the impact on the first industry is tough and rigid, and the second industry has a certain adaptability to the impact, the tertiary industry represents a strong impact resistance, while, China's exports has a conductive fuction, expanding the impact on China. According to the results, some political propositions are put forward, in term of the present economic status of China.
Forthly, this dissertation reaserches the orientation and the measures of China's oil pricing mechanism reform, by analysising the current policy of China's oil pricing mechanism, under the circumstances that the international oil prices continued to rise. The conclusion shows that, to improve China's oil pricing mechanism, a total oil prices converge should be taken on the basis of the current oil price formation mechanism remaining basically unchanged, the set of the finished oil market management laws and regulations should be speeded up, the government ought to adjuste the price management and accelerate the finished oil distribution management system, and the development of the oil futures market should be concentrated on.
Finally, this dissertation analyses China's relating oil policy, under the circumstance that international oil price flutuates fiercely. By comparing the oil policies the typical World countries set to respond to the rising oil prices, and in light of China's own specific situation, this dissertation presents such suggestions as, building up strategic oil reserves, exploitating oil alternative energy sources, increasing domestic oil supply to deal with the short-term volatility of international oil price, improving oil utilization to follow the long-term declining oil trend, and achieving diversification of oil imports to alleviate the imbalances in the distribution of oil resources which adversely affects international oil price.
鉴于此,本文从研究国际石油市场入手,深入分析国际油价特性,进而把握国际油价走势,结合油价波动给中国经济所带来的诸多影响,探讨中国石油政策的改革方向,系统地提出了中国石油政策的具体措施与建议,以提高中国经济对国际油价冲击的抵御能力与适应能力。
首先,本文以描述性统计的方式,概述了国际石油资源的分布格局以及国际石油的供需形势,通过对国际石油生产与消费地区的对比分析,本文认为,虽然在石油资源的总体供需层面上,国际石油市场在长期处于均衡状态,但由于石油资源分布的不平衡以及地域上的差异,国际石油市场在短期均衡状态非常脆弱,可调节的机动产油能力愈来愈紧张,突发事件对于石油价格变化的影响十分突出。因此,国际石油市场未来总体上有利于石油供需稳定的格局中,将仍存在短期或局部地区出现石油供给中断、石油价格大幅上涨的可能性。
为了对这一结论进行更科学的论证,接下来本文采用时间序列的分析方法,对国际石油价格的走势分别进行了短期与长期的预测。本文选取了2001年至2007年的WTI月度数据作为样本数据,进行短期预测。通过数据检验发现,这一时期的数据满足随机步游过程的特征,回归后的预测结果表明,在未来的短期内国际石油价格将在每桶65至85美元的高价位间波动。为了预测国际石油价格的长期趋势,本文以1980年至2006年的WTI月度数据为样本,使用小波分解的方法剔除了石油价格中的随机波动,以SVR拟合油价总体走势,以余弦波模拟油价中的周期性波动,总体走势与周期性波动的叠加便反映了国际石油价格在均衡状态下的长期趋势,预测结果表明,在不存在外界随机干预的情况下,国际油价在长期中将处于稳定下降趋势。
在深入分析了国际石油价格波动特性与走势情况后,本文开始研究国际石油价格波动对中国宏观经济所造成的影响。通过建立向量误差修正模型(VECM),以WTI、中国GDP、进出口额及其第一、二、三产业增加值为变量,分析了国际油价波动对中国宏观经济所造成的影响。结论表明,国际油价波动对于中国第一产业的影响是强硬的、刚性的,中国第二产业对于国际石油价格的波动具有一定的适应性,而第三产业则对国际油价冲击具有较强的抵御能力,同时,中国的对外出口具有传导作用,扩大了国际油价对中国GDP的冲击效应。并由此结论提出了相应的针对性措施。
在分析了国际石油价格特性以及国际石油价格对中国宏观经济的影响后,本文分析研究了在国际石油价格剧烈波动下的中国石油价格政策措施。本文针对国际石油价格持续上涨的情况,研究了中国石油定价机制的改革方向与具体改革措施。本文认为中国石油定价机制,应在原油价格形成机制维持基本不变的基础上,首先实现国内成品油价格与国际市场的彻底接轨,同时加快成品油市场管理的法律法规建设,调整政府的价格管理职能,加快成品油流通管理体制改革,重点发展石油期货市场,逐步增强中国在国际石油市场的发言权。
最后,本文分析研究了中国石油其它相关政策,通过分析世界典型国家为应对油价攀升所制定的石油政策,并结合中国自身具体情况,本文提出了中国石油的供给政策、需求政策、运输政策、国际合作政策,包括积极建立石油战略储备、开发石油替代能源、实现石油进口地区多元化、增加国内石油供给、发展石油消费国的协作组织等方面的措施,以应对国际石油价格的短期剧烈波动,同时提高石油利用率,从而顺应国际石油市场变化的长期趋势,并且缓解石油资源分布不平衡对石油供应安全的不良影响。
Since the event "9.11" in 2001, the growth of the world economy dropped into a downward slidingboard, which directly resulted in a distinct decline of the demand for crude oil in the international oil market. However, at the beginning of 2002, international oil price started to rise steadily, after the downturn before. In the April 2006, international oil price expanded in a large extent, and breached the toll-gates of 70 and 75 dollars per barrel in succession in a short time. In 2007, international oil price turned to 70 dollars per barrel, taking a new thrust to 80-90 dollars per barrel. With reiterative fluctuation and fierce appreciation, international oil price will bring an innevitable impulse on China of which the demand for oil has been growing.
Consequently, this dissertation begins with a study on the international oil market, and takes a probe into the caricteristic of international oil price to grasps the future tendency of international oil price. After that, combining with the influences international oil price would bring to China, this dissertation researches the orientation for the reform of oil policy in China, and proposed a series of measures which should be tanken by China government systematically to enhance the resistibility and the flexibility of China economy when facing the fierce oil price fluctuation.
Firstly, this dissertation summarizes the distributing pattern of world oil resource and the matching situation of oil demand versus supply, by using the describing statistics. Through the camparison between the areas producing oil and those consuming oil, this dissertation makes a conclusion that, in the whole oil market, the oil supply will satisfy the oil demand in long term, however, because of the imbalance and the distinction in the oil distribution, actually, the oil market equilibrium represents to be rather frangible, and the adjustable mobile oil production becomes tighter, which would be easily impacted by unexpected incidents. Therefore, in principle, the international oil market will keep balance in the long term. At the same time, there still exists the probability of oil supply interruptions in some areas and impetuous oil price fluctuation in short term.
Secondly, to make a more scientific argumentation, this dissertation takes out the short-term and long-term forcasts for the international oil price trend, by applying time series analysis method. This dissertation choses the monthly WTI data from 2001 to 2007 as the samples, to make a short-term forcast. The result of the forcast shows that, in the future short term, international oil price will wander between the high price of 65 and 85 dollars per barrel. To make a long-term forcast, this dissertatio extends the sample time span to be 1980 and 2006. The approach provided is that, by using of the multi-scale wavelet decomposition, extract the signal of low frequency form the original oil price series and estimate it by a SVR model, however, adding the well-regulated signals of high frequency to the forecasting process. The result of the approach shows that, international oil price will enter into a steady downward trend in long term without the random interruption.
Thirdly, after grasping the charicteristic and tendency of international oil price, this dissertation starts to study the impact from oil price fluctuations on the macro economy of China.This dissertation applies VECM to analyse the influence oil price fluctuation bring to China, using variables including World Oil Price, GDP, Import and Export Volume, Output of the first the second and the tertiary industry. The results from the Impulse response Function and Variance decomposition analysis based on VECM show that, the impact on the first industry is tough and rigid, and the second industry has a certain adaptability to the impact, the tertiary industry represents a strong impact resistance, while, China's exports has a conductive fuction, expanding the impact on China. According to the results, some political propositions are put forward, in term of the present economic status of China.
Forthly, this dissertation reaserches the orientation and the measures of China's oil pricing mechanism reform, by analysising the current policy of China's oil pricing mechanism, under the circumstances that the international oil prices continued to rise. The conclusion shows that, to improve China's oil pricing mechanism, a total oil prices converge should be taken on the basis of the current oil price formation mechanism remaining basically unchanged, the set of the finished oil market management laws and regulations should be speeded up, the government ought to adjuste the price management and accelerate the finished oil distribution management system, and the development of the oil futures market should be concentrated on.
Finally, this dissertation analyses China's relating oil policy, under the circumstance that international oil price flutuates fiercely. By comparing the oil policies the typical World countries set to respond to the rising oil prices, and in light of China's own specific situation, this dissertation presents such suggestions as, building up strategic oil reserves, exploitating oil alternative energy sources, increasing domestic oil supply to deal with the short-term volatility of international oil price, improving oil utilization to follow the long-term declining oil trend, and achieving diversification of oil imports to alleviate the imbalances in the distribution of oil resources which adversely affects international oil price.
引文
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