交通基础设施的网络效应及溢出效应的实证研究
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摘要
本文是在中国政府高度重视基础设施投资，学术界又很关注交通基础设施在经济中所起的作用的宏观大背景下，对交通基础设施的网络效应和溢出效应进行了理论分析和实证检验。在理论上，应用经济增长理论、国际贸易理论和新经济地理理论分析了交通基础设施的网络效应和溢出效应产生的原因以及作用机制。在实证上，本文基于上述理论的框架，分析了国际运输方式中的各类交通基础设施的发展，并通过贸易引力模型实证检验了交通基础设施的网络效应，并对其国际比较；接下来讨论了我国交通基础设施的发展趋势和空间格局，并通过空间计量、空间统计等分析方法对交通基础设施的溢出效应进行了实证分析，并且进一步验证了交通基础设施的空间溢出效应。
本文主要得出以下结论：①交通基础设施是一个国家物流水平的重要体现，近年来发展中国家和新兴经济体国家逐渐的改善了交通基础设施的状况，使得国家物流水平总体有所提高。②交通基础设施的网络效应在国际贸易中发挥中重要作用，但是仍然具有进一步提升的空间。由于在国际贸易中的地位和本身的特点，港口、航空和公路基础设施指标对进出口贸易流量的促进作用比较显著；而铁路运输由于其运营特点，作用较为微弱。同时，代表国家物流基础设施综合水平的物流设施综合指数对消除贸易障碍、增强出口贸易竞争力具有显著的促进作用。总体来说发达国家的交通基础设施网络效应好于发展中国家。③建国后中国经过60多年的发展，以及近年来政府为了应对危机实施扩大内需的财政政策和制订的各类地区发展政策，使得我国交通基础设施建设取得了长足的进步，初具规模的综合交通运输体系逐步形成，公路、铁路、民航、水路及管道建设快速发展；但是，中国交通基础设施建设也面临着结构不合理、运力不足、各种运输方式的衔接较差和交通基础设施地区分布不平衡等问题。④交通基础设施总体上对我国经济增长具有正向的溢出效应，但由于区域历史条件限制，各地区溢出效应强弱不一；由于交通基础设施与其他部门之间相对生产率的差距，导致交通基础设施对经济增长的直接影响始终为负；交通基础设施的溢出效应存在明显滞后期，且逐渐衰竭，在滞后4‐5期时由正向转为负向；省际间交通基础设施带来的空间溢出效应明显，但同样存在各地区强弱不一的现象，中、东部地区更加明显。
本文的创新之处主要在于：①研究视角的创新。本文通过梳理了国际商品贸易及国际运输中涉及到的各类交通基础设施，首次以贸易引力模型为切入点，实证检验了交通基础设施的网络效应，并对世界各主要贸易国家交通基础设施的网络效应进行了比较，系统的开展了理论分析与实证检验，填补了现有研究的空白。②研究方法的创新。本文在对中国交通基础设施的发展趋势及地区发展格局进行分析的基础上，应用Feder模型将交通基础设施对本地区经济增长的直接效用和间接效用剥离开来，来实证的检验交通基础设施的溢出效应。同时还借助空间计量经济学的研究方法，利用空间权重矩阵来实证的检验交通基础设施的空间溢出效应。
This research did theoretical analysis and empirical test on the network and spillovereffects of transport infrastructure when both the Chinese government and theacademic world have paid great attention on how transport infrastructure constructionaffects Chinese economy. Based on the theory of economic growth, international tradeand new economic geography, this research analyzed how the network and spillovereffects of transport infrastructure work. On this theoretical basis, this researchanalyzed the development of all kinds of transport infrastructure in internationaltransportation and empirically tested its network effect by trade gravity model withcomparative country analysis. And this research also discussed the development andstructure of China’s both national and regional transport infrastructure, empiricallyanalyzed the spillover effect of transport infrastructure by spatial statistics andeconometrics and further tested the spatial spillover effect of transport infrastructure.The conclusions of this research are as follows: First, a country’s development levelof logistics is reflected by its development level of transport infrastructure. Andduring recent years, new developing economies have improved their development oftransport infrastructure, so these countries’ development level of logistics is alsoimproved. Second, the network effect of transport infrastructure plays an importantrole in doing international business, but still needs to be improved. Because of thedifferent role played in international transportation, the port, the air and the roadinfrastructure have statistically significant effect on improving the volume of importand export, but the rail infrastructure does not. The results shows better logisticsinfrastructure index would significantly reduce trade barriers, increase exportcompetitiveness. Generally speaking, the network effect of transport infrastructure isbetter in developed countries than in developing countries. Third, thanks togovernment fiscal policy of expanding domestic demand in order to deal with crisisand the60years of its own development since the country has established, China’stransport infrastructure has improved a lot, and a network of all kinds of transportinfrastructure has gradually established. But the construction of China’s transportinfrastructure still faces some problems, such as irrational structure, lack of capacity,poor link up of various modes of transport and imbalances in the distribution oftransport infrastructure. Fourth, transport infrastructure has a positive spillover effecton China’s economic growth; Different geography and historical endowments playsimportant roles in regional disparities; Transport infrastructure has a negative directeffect on China’s economic growth due to the relative marginal productive gapbetween the two departments of national economy; The effect on economic growth oftransport infrastructure has a significant time lag and this lag changes its sign whentime is4-5years; Transport infrastructure has a significant spatial spillover effect,which is relatively more obvious in middle and eastern part.
The innovations of this research are as follows: First, this research has an innovativeperspective. By analyzing the development of all kinds of transport infrastructure ininternational transportation, this research systematically and empirically tested thenetwork effect of transport infrastructure by trade gravity model with comparativeanalysis among world major trading countries, making up the existing gas in recentresearch. Second, this research has innovative research methods. Based on theanalysis of the development and structure of China’s both national and regionaltransport infrastructure, this research separated the direct effect from the indirecteffect of transport infrastructure of the economic growth and empirically tested thespillover effect of transport infrastructure. This research also empirically tested thespatial spillover effect of transport infrastructure by spatial weight matrix usingmethod of spatial statistics and econometrics.
本文主要得出以下结论：①交通基础设施是一个国家物流水平的重要体现，近年来发展中国家和新兴经济体国家逐渐的改善了交通基础设施的状况，使得国家物流水平总体有所提高。②交通基础设施的网络效应在国际贸易中发挥中重要作用，但是仍然具有进一步提升的空间。由于在国际贸易中的地位和本身的特点，港口、航空和公路基础设施指标对进出口贸易流量的促进作用比较显著；而铁路运输由于其运营特点，作用较为微弱。同时，代表国家物流基础设施综合水平的物流设施综合指数对消除贸易障碍、增强出口贸易竞争力具有显著的促进作用。总体来说发达国家的交通基础设施网络效应好于发展中国家。③建国后中国经过60多年的发展，以及近年来政府为了应对危机实施扩大内需的财政政策和制订的各类地区发展政策，使得我国交通基础设施建设取得了长足的进步，初具规模的综合交通运输体系逐步形成，公路、铁路、民航、水路及管道建设快速发展；但是，中国交通基础设施建设也面临着结构不合理、运力不足、各种运输方式的衔接较差和交通基础设施地区分布不平衡等问题。④交通基础设施总体上对我国经济增长具有正向的溢出效应，但由于区域历史条件限制，各地区溢出效应强弱不一；由于交通基础设施与其他部门之间相对生产率的差距，导致交通基础设施对经济增长的直接影响始终为负；交通基础设施的溢出效应存在明显滞后期，且逐渐衰竭，在滞后4‐5期时由正向转为负向；省际间交通基础设施带来的空间溢出效应明显，但同样存在各地区强弱不一的现象，中、东部地区更加明显。
本文的创新之处主要在于：①研究视角的创新。本文通过梳理了国际商品贸易及国际运输中涉及到的各类交通基础设施，首次以贸易引力模型为切入点，实证检验了交通基础设施的网络效应，并对世界各主要贸易国家交通基础设施的网络效应进行了比较，系统的开展了理论分析与实证检验，填补了现有研究的空白。②研究方法的创新。本文在对中国交通基础设施的发展趋势及地区发展格局进行分析的基础上，应用Feder模型将交通基础设施对本地区经济增长的直接效用和间接效用剥离开来，来实证的检验交通基础设施的溢出效应。同时还借助空间计量经济学的研究方法，利用空间权重矩阵来实证的检验交通基础设施的空间溢出效应。
This research did theoretical analysis and empirical test on the network and spillovereffects of transport infrastructure when both the Chinese government and theacademic world have paid great attention on how transport infrastructure constructionaffects Chinese economy. Based on the theory of economic growth, international tradeand new economic geography, this research analyzed how the network and spillovereffects of transport infrastructure work. On this theoretical basis, this researchanalyzed the development of all kinds of transport infrastructure in internationaltransportation and empirically tested its network effect by trade gravity model withcomparative country analysis. And this research also discussed the development andstructure of China’s both national and regional transport infrastructure, empiricallyanalyzed the spillover effect of transport infrastructure by spatial statistics andeconometrics and further tested the spatial spillover effect of transport infrastructure.The conclusions of this research are as follows: First, a country’s development levelof logistics is reflected by its development level of transport infrastructure. Andduring recent years, new developing economies have improved their development oftransport infrastructure, so these countries’ development level of logistics is alsoimproved. Second, the network effect of transport infrastructure plays an importantrole in doing international business, but still needs to be improved. Because of thedifferent role played in international transportation, the port, the air and the roadinfrastructure have statistically significant effect on improving the volume of importand export, but the rail infrastructure does not. The results shows better logisticsinfrastructure index would significantly reduce trade barriers, increase exportcompetitiveness. Generally speaking, the network effect of transport infrastructure isbetter in developed countries than in developing countries. Third, thanks togovernment fiscal policy of expanding domestic demand in order to deal with crisisand the60years of its own development since the country has established, China’stransport infrastructure has improved a lot, and a network of all kinds of transportinfrastructure has gradually established. But the construction of China’s transportinfrastructure still faces some problems, such as irrational structure, lack of capacity,poor link up of various modes of transport and imbalances in the distribution oftransport infrastructure. Fourth, transport infrastructure has a positive spillover effecton China’s economic growth; Different geography and historical endowments playsimportant roles in regional disparities; Transport infrastructure has a negative directeffect on China’s economic growth due to the relative marginal productive gapbetween the two departments of national economy; The effect on economic growth oftransport infrastructure has a significant time lag and this lag changes its sign whentime is4-5years; Transport infrastructure has a significant spatial spillover effect,which is relatively more obvious in middle and eastern part.
The innovations of this research are as follows: First, this research has an innovativeperspective. By analyzing the development of all kinds of transport infrastructure ininternational transportation, this research systematically and empirically tested thenetwork effect of transport infrastructure by trade gravity model with comparativeanalysis among world major trading countries, making up the existing gas in recentresearch. Second, this research has innovative research methods. Based on theanalysis of the development and structure of China’s both national and regionaltransport infrastructure, this research separated the direct effect from the indirecteffect of transport infrastructure of the economic growth and empirically tested thespillover effect of transport infrastructure. This research also empirically tested thespatial spillover effect of transport infrastructure by spatial weight matrix usingmethod of spatial statistics and econometrics.
引文
①本段数据来源：《2011年公路水路交通运输业发展统计公报》
①本段数据来源：《2011年民航业发展统计公报》
①数据来源：国家发展改革委员会网站发布。
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①本段数据来源：《2011年民航业发展统计公报》
①数据来源：国家发展改革委员会网站发布。
[1]刘生龙、胡鞍钢，基础设施的外部性在中国的检验：1988—2007，经济研究，2010年第3期，4-15页。
[2] Young，A.，“Increasing Returns and Economic Progress”，EconomicJournal，Vol.38（152），PP527-542，1928.
[3] Rosenstein Rodan，P.“Problems of Industrialization of Eastern andSoutheastern Europe”，Economic Journal，Vol.53，PP202-211，1943.
[4] Hirschman, A. O., The Strategy of Economic Development，YaleUniversity Press，1958.
[5] Romer, P.M.,“Increasing Returns and Long Run Growth”，Journal ofPolitical Economy，Vol.94(5)，PP1002-1052，1986.
[6] Lucas, R. E.,“The Mechanics of Economic Development”，Journal ofMonetary Economics，Vol.22(1),PP3-42，1988.
[7] Barro, R. J.,“Government Spending in a Simple model of EndogenousGrowth”，Journal of Political Economy，Vol.98(5),PP103-125，1990.
[8] Aschauer, D. A.,“Back of the G-7pack:public invest and productivitygrowth in the Group of Seven”, Working Paper Series, MacroeconomicIssues89-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago，1989.
[9] Munnell, A. H. and Cook, L. M.，“H ow Does Public Infrastructure AffectRegional Economic Performance?”,New England Economic Review, Vol.9,PP11-33，1990.
[10] Tatom, J. A.,“Should Government Spending on Capital Goods Be Raised?”, Review,Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Vol.3, PP3-15,1991.
[11] Canning, David, and Marianne Fay, The Effect of Infrastructure Networks on Economic Growth, Department of Economics, ColumbiaUniversity,New York,1993.
[12] Christophe Kamps,“New Estimates of Government Net Capital Stocksfor22OECD Countries,1960-2001”,IMF Staff papers,Vol.53(1),2006.
[13]范九利、白暴力，基础设施资本对经济增长的影响——二级三要素CES生产函数法估计，经济论坛，2004年第11期,10-13页。
[14] Fan, S. and Zhang, X.,“In frastructure and Regional Economic Development in Rural China”, China Economic Review, Vol.15, PP203-214,2004.
[15]刘生龙、武丽，交通投资对中国经济增长的影响，科学决策，2009年第7期，8-13页。
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