中国煤炭产业集中度及政策研究
摘要
煤炭是我国的主体能源,煤炭工业是关系国家经济命脉和能源安全的重要基础产业。但是我国煤炭产业集中度过低的现状严重制约了煤炭产业的健康有序发展。本文在分析我国煤炭产业集中度现状与问题的基础上,以优化我国煤炭产业集中度为主线,从我国煤炭产业集中度的影响因素、我国煤炭产业集中度对煤炭企业市场销售量的影响、基于经济效率的我国煤炭产业最优集中度的测算、提升我国煤炭产业集中度的政策等几个方面展开研究。其主要内容包括：
第一、我国煤炭产业集中度的国际比较。通过与美国、俄罗斯、澳大利亚、印度比较发现与我国过度竞争型市场结构相比,这四个国家煤炭产业的CR4都已经接近或者超过60%,为典型的寡占型市场结构。同时,四国煤炭产业发展的状况和经验表明,煤炭产业集中度应当保持在合理水平,并非越高越好,适当集中和合理竞争是煤炭产业健康发展的两个重要因素。然而,我国2010年的煤炭产业集中度CR4只有17.5%,远远低于这四个国家。过低的集中度导致煤炭市场无序竞争明显,因此依据国外的经验,适度提高我国煤炭产业集中度可能更加有利。
第二、我国煤炭产业集中度的影响因素分析。从定性的角度看,我国煤炭产业集中度受到历史因素、政策因素、市场需求因素和企业竞争力因素等多种因素的影响。从定量角度本文选取合理的指标数据,建立了我国煤炭产业集中度影响因素多元回归模型。模型显示进入壁垒与产业集中度显著正相关；经济技术水平与产业集中度微弱正相关；市场需求与产业集中度负相关。在计量模型统计分析的基础上,本文对实证结果给出具体的经济学解释。在此基础上,本文构建基于议价的三阶段耗散博弈模型来揭示煤炭企业行为与产业集中度形成的微观机理,与前文计量模型实证分析形成互补。
第三、我国煤炭产业集中度对煤炭企业市场销售量的影响。多方面因素对我国煤炭产业集中度构成影响,同时煤炭产业集中度也会对产业及企业产生影响。以产业的需求量(也就是产业的市场销售量)为指标,本文建立计量模型分析CR4对我国煤炭产业需求量产生怎样的影响。通过研究发现,从排名前4的大企业角度来看,产业集中度越大市场需求量就越小,产业集中度越小市场销售量则越大。这表明,垄断实际上会造成产业产量下降,因此需要竞争,即需要集中度下降。而从小企业的角度来看,产业集中度越大,市场销售量就越大,适度提高产业集中度反而会增加市场销售量。因此,我国煤炭产业集中度应该存在某个恰当的值,使得产业需求量最大。本文通过实证检验,得出我国煤炭产业CR4在48%左右,能使得煤炭产业市场销售量达到最大。
第四、基于经济效率的我国煤炭产业最优集中度估算。本文对于最优集中度的估算主要基于一个理论和两个函数：即微观经济学中边际成本等于边际收益的基于利润最大化的生产规模决策理论；煤炭产业和煤炭企业的市场需求函数和成本函数。文章对于最优的判断标准主要有两个方面：一是煤炭产业应当有效满足国民经济发展对于煤炭的需求；二是煤炭企业实现利润最大化。以“十二五”时期的相关数据对该模型进行实证,结果显示CR8达到53%左右是可以实现有经济效率的。
第五、提升我国煤炭产业集中度的政策建议。在前文研究的基础上,从合理设置市场壁垒、提升龙头企业市场竞争力和支配力、促进煤炭产业可持续发展等方面提出了具有针对性和可操作性的把我国煤炭产业集中度提升到合理水平的政策建议。
Coal is the main energy in China and coal industry is the important foundation industry which is very important to country's economy and energy security. But the low China's coal concentration seriously restricts the healthy development of coal industry. Based on the analysis of China's coal industry market concentration degree present situation and problem, to the optimization of China's coal industry market concentration degree as the main line, from the influence factors of China's coal industry, market concentration degree of formation and coal enterprise behavior, based on the economic efficiency of industry of our country coal concentration measurement, the upgrading of China's coal industry concentration degree and other aspects of the policy. Its main contents include:
First, the comparison between China's coal industry concentration degree and other countries', comparing with the United States, Russia, Australia, India finding that the coal industry concentration of the four countries have been close to or more than60%which is a typical oligopoly market structure with China's excessive competitive market structure,. At the same time, the coal industry development situation and experience shows that the concentration of the coal industry should be kept to a reasonable level, is not the higher the better. The appropriate concentration and reasonable competition of coal industry healthy development are two important factors. However, the coal industry CR4in China in2010is only17.5%, much lower than those in the four foreign countries. The low industriy concentration ratio induces the turbid competition, so according to the foreign experience, adequate rising in Chinese coal industry concentration ratio maybe more benefit for the development of coal industry.
Second, China's coal industry concentration influence factor analysis. From the macro perspective, China's coal industry market concentration degree influenced by historical factors, policy factors, market factors and enterprise competitiveness factors and other factors. According to these factors, this paper selects the reasonable index data, the establishment of China's coal industry market concentration degree influence factors multivariate regression model. Model display entry barriers and the degree of industrial concentration significantly correlated; initial stage of industry concentration degree and the current industrial concentration significantly correlated; economic and technological level for industry concentration effect is very weak, and no significant; market demand and industry concentration degree positive correlation, but the correlation is not obvious. In the econometric model on the basis of the statistical analysis, this paper in the medium level analysis of China's coal industry market concentration degree is low reason, reach low barriers to entry, high exit barriers, low level of technology, unreasonable system and policy are the formation of industry of our country coal concentration level is low the main reason. On the basis of this, the article constructs three stage dissipative game model to reveal the microscopic mechanism that coal enterprise behavior and the formation of the industrial concentration degree. This is the complementary of previous measurement model empirical analysis.
Third, China's coal industry concentration effects on coal enterprise market sales. There are multiple factors impact on China's coal industry concentration, while the concentration of the coal industry impacts on the industry and businesses. By the industrial demand (namely industry market sales volume) as the index, this paper established a model of measurement analysis what impaction of CR4to our country coal demand. From the view of top4large enterprises the study shows the industry concentration is bigger the market demand is smaller, and vice versa. So the monopoly will actually cause industrial production declined which needs competition, requiring concentration to down. And from the small business point the greater the market concentration degree the more market sales. It will increase market sales elevated industrial concentration moderately. Therefore, there should be an appropriate coal industry market concentration making industrial demand maximum. Through empirical testing, that the coal industry of our country CR4is about48%can make the coal output reached maximum.
Fourth, calculating the optimal Chinese coal industry concentration ration basing on the law of maximum profit, the researches in this chapter mainly base on one theory, namely maximum profit theory in microeconomics which states that the marginal coas equals to marginal revenue is the necessary condition of maximum profit, and two functions, namely coal industry demand function and cost function. The paper has two judge criterions about the economic efficiency, one is that the coal industry should meet the consumption demand for coal, another is the coal enterprises achieve maxium profit. Experiential researches suggest that the CR8should approach53%, so as to maxim profit.
Fifth, Suggestions to promote Chinese coal industry concentration ration. Basing on the former researches and stating from some aspects that include a rational market-entry-bulwark, raising the competition power and dominator of spigot enterprise, promoting Chinese persistentable development, the paper propose some pertinent and maneuverable political advices to rise Chinese caol ondustry concentration ration to an adequate level.
第一、我国煤炭产业集中度的国际比较。通过与美国、俄罗斯、澳大利亚、印度比较发现与我国过度竞争型市场结构相比,这四个国家煤炭产业的CR4都已经接近或者超过60%,为典型的寡占型市场结构。同时,四国煤炭产业发展的状况和经验表明,煤炭产业集中度应当保持在合理水平,并非越高越好,适当集中和合理竞争是煤炭产业健康发展的两个重要因素。然而,我国2010年的煤炭产业集中度CR4只有17.5%,远远低于这四个国家。过低的集中度导致煤炭市场无序竞争明显,因此依据国外的经验,适度提高我国煤炭产业集中度可能更加有利。
第二、我国煤炭产业集中度的影响因素分析。从定性的角度看,我国煤炭产业集中度受到历史因素、政策因素、市场需求因素和企业竞争力因素等多种因素的影响。从定量角度本文选取合理的指标数据,建立了我国煤炭产业集中度影响因素多元回归模型。模型显示进入壁垒与产业集中度显著正相关；经济技术水平与产业集中度微弱正相关；市场需求与产业集中度负相关。在计量模型统计分析的基础上,本文对实证结果给出具体的经济学解释。在此基础上,本文构建基于议价的三阶段耗散博弈模型来揭示煤炭企业行为与产业集中度形成的微观机理,与前文计量模型实证分析形成互补。
第三、我国煤炭产业集中度对煤炭企业市场销售量的影响。多方面因素对我国煤炭产业集中度构成影响,同时煤炭产业集中度也会对产业及企业产生影响。以产业的需求量(也就是产业的市场销售量)为指标,本文建立计量模型分析CR4对我国煤炭产业需求量产生怎样的影响。通过研究发现,从排名前4的大企业角度来看,产业集中度越大市场需求量就越小,产业集中度越小市场销售量则越大。这表明,垄断实际上会造成产业产量下降,因此需要竞争,即需要集中度下降。而从小企业的角度来看,产业集中度越大,市场销售量就越大,适度提高产业集中度反而会增加市场销售量。因此,我国煤炭产业集中度应该存在某个恰当的值,使得产业需求量最大。本文通过实证检验,得出我国煤炭产业CR4在48%左右,能使得煤炭产业市场销售量达到最大。
第四、基于经济效率的我国煤炭产业最优集中度估算。本文对于最优集中度的估算主要基于一个理论和两个函数：即微观经济学中边际成本等于边际收益的基于利润最大化的生产规模决策理论；煤炭产业和煤炭企业的市场需求函数和成本函数。文章对于最优的判断标准主要有两个方面：一是煤炭产业应当有效满足国民经济发展对于煤炭的需求；二是煤炭企业实现利润最大化。以“十二五”时期的相关数据对该模型进行实证,结果显示CR8达到53%左右是可以实现有经济效率的。
第五、提升我国煤炭产业集中度的政策建议。在前文研究的基础上,从合理设置市场壁垒、提升龙头企业市场竞争力和支配力、促进煤炭产业可持续发展等方面提出了具有针对性和可操作性的把我国煤炭产业集中度提升到合理水平的政策建议。
Coal is the main energy in China and coal industry is the important foundation industry which is very important to country's economy and energy security. But the low China's coal concentration seriously restricts the healthy development of coal industry. Based on the analysis of China's coal industry market concentration degree present situation and problem, to the optimization of China's coal industry market concentration degree as the main line, from the influence factors of China's coal industry, market concentration degree of formation and coal enterprise behavior, based on the economic efficiency of industry of our country coal concentration measurement, the upgrading of China's coal industry concentration degree and other aspects of the policy. Its main contents include:
First, the comparison between China's coal industry concentration degree and other countries', comparing with the United States, Russia, Australia, India finding that the coal industry concentration of the four countries have been close to or more than60%which is a typical oligopoly market structure with China's excessive competitive market structure,. At the same time, the coal industry development situation and experience shows that the concentration of the coal industry should be kept to a reasonable level, is not the higher the better. The appropriate concentration and reasonable competition of coal industry healthy development are two important factors. However, the coal industry CR4in China in2010is only17.5%, much lower than those in the four foreign countries. The low industriy concentration ratio induces the turbid competition, so according to the foreign experience, adequate rising in Chinese coal industry concentration ratio maybe more benefit for the development of coal industry.
Second, China's coal industry concentration influence factor analysis. From the macro perspective, China's coal industry market concentration degree influenced by historical factors, policy factors, market factors and enterprise competitiveness factors and other factors. According to these factors, this paper selects the reasonable index data, the establishment of China's coal industry market concentration degree influence factors multivariate regression model. Model display entry barriers and the degree of industrial concentration significantly correlated; initial stage of industry concentration degree and the current industrial concentration significantly correlated; economic and technological level for industry concentration effect is very weak, and no significant; market demand and industry concentration degree positive correlation, but the correlation is not obvious. In the econometric model on the basis of the statistical analysis, this paper in the medium level analysis of China's coal industry market concentration degree is low reason, reach low barriers to entry, high exit barriers, low level of technology, unreasonable system and policy are the formation of industry of our country coal concentration level is low the main reason. On the basis of this, the article constructs three stage dissipative game model to reveal the microscopic mechanism that coal enterprise behavior and the formation of the industrial concentration degree. This is the complementary of previous measurement model empirical analysis.
Third, China's coal industry concentration effects on coal enterprise market sales. There are multiple factors impact on China's coal industry concentration, while the concentration of the coal industry impacts on the industry and businesses. By the industrial demand (namely industry market sales volume) as the index, this paper established a model of measurement analysis what impaction of CR4to our country coal demand. From the view of top4large enterprises the study shows the industry concentration is bigger the market demand is smaller, and vice versa. So the monopoly will actually cause industrial production declined which needs competition, requiring concentration to down. And from the small business point the greater the market concentration degree the more market sales. It will increase market sales elevated industrial concentration moderately. Therefore, there should be an appropriate coal industry market concentration making industrial demand maximum. Through empirical testing, that the coal industry of our country CR4is about48%can make the coal output reached maximum.
Fourth, calculating the optimal Chinese coal industry concentration ration basing on the law of maximum profit, the researches in this chapter mainly base on one theory, namely maximum profit theory in microeconomics which states that the marginal coas equals to marginal revenue is the necessary condition of maximum profit, and two functions, namely coal industry demand function and cost function. The paper has two judge criterions about the economic efficiency, one is that the coal industry should meet the consumption demand for coal, another is the coal enterprises achieve maxium profit. Experiential researches suggest that the CR8should approach53%, so as to maxim profit.
Fifth, Suggestions to promote Chinese coal industry concentration ration. Basing on the former researches and stating from some aspects that include a rational market-entry-bulwark, raising the competition power and dominator of spigot enterprise, promoting Chinese persistentable development, the paper propose some pertinent and maneuverable political advices to rise Chinese caol ondustry concentration ration to an adequate level.
引文
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2也有少数文献专门研究买者集中度,但是不是主流,大部分产业组织理论关注的是卖者集中度,这主要是因为西方国家的经济学家们和政治家们比较关注消费者的利益,而消费者又通常在市场中处于不利地位。
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2也有少数文献专门研究买者集中度,但是不是主流,大部分产业组织理论关注的是卖者集中度,这主要是因为西方国家的经济学家们和政治家们比较关注消费者的利益,而消费者又通常在市场中处于不利地位。
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6柳纯录,刘明亮.信息系统项目管理师教程[M].北京：清华大学,2005.
7参见本文第2章第1节或本文作者发表的期刊文章.中国煤炭产业集中度测算与判断[J].物流技术,2012.31(4).
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13阎瑞琼,王丽华.对我国煤炭产业结构的研究[J].科技情报开发与经济,2008(18)：97-98.
14杨蕙馨.企业的进入退出与产业组织政策[M].上海：上海人民出版社,2000.
15郝家龙,宁云才.基于经济博弈的煤炭价格分析[J].中国矿业,2006(15)：30-45.
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25张光明,李根.我国船舶产业SCP范式实证研究[J].江苏科技大学学报：社会科学版,2009(3)：39-43.
26奥利弗·威廉姆森.反托拉斯经济学：兼并、协约和策略行为[M].北京：经济科学出版社,1999.
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30孙威.规制垄断高价的必要性研究[J].暨南学报：哲学社会科学版,2011(4)：48-53.
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37企业的长期供给曲线P1RM表明,在企业没有达到其最大规模之前,随着企业规模的扩张,市场供给量也会增长,即水平的P1R线段。但是当企业的规模达到其最大限度后,市场供给将保持固定,RM垂直段。
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