中美产品内贸易研究
摘要
随着经济全球化的发展和国际分工的日益深化,产品内贸易在国际贸易中的地位日渐突出,成为国际贸易中增长最快的部分。产品内贸易的发生机制是什么、各国的贸易模式如何决定、产品内贸易的开展对要素价格和国家福利有何影响,都是国际贸易理论研究的重要课题。在国际产品内分工深化的背景下,在世界贸易格局中占有重要地位的中美双边贸易也体现出越来越明显的产品内贸易特征。因此,从产品内贸易的视角研究中美双边贸易,对两国产品内贸易的发展进行深入的分析,找出影响中美产品内贸易发展的深层次原因,明确双方的贸易利益分配,对于促进中美经贸关系的顺利发展,争取中国在中美贸易中获取更大的利益,具有重要的理论价值与现实意义。
本文从理论与实证两个视角就中美产品内贸易进行了较为系统深入的研究。理论方面,论文在李嘉图模型、H-O理论以及新贸易理论的框架内,对产品内贸易的发生机制、贸易效应及FDI与产品内贸易的关系进行了考察。实证方面,运用投入产出法分别从进口与出口两个环节对中美产品内贸易水平进行了分产品的测算,获得了不同产品的产品内贸易水平的时间序列数据,通过计量模型找出影响中美产品内贸易水平发展的主要因素,并对其收入分配效应加以考察。最后就中美产品内贸易的发展中存在的主要问题提出了政策建议。
研究表明:比较优势和规模经济是产品内贸易的内在发生机制,各国按其比较优势在不同生产环节上进行专业化分工,不同环节中的规模经济差异则强化了这种分工结构,以产品内分工为基础的产品内贸易是一种互利贸易,能够提高国家福利,并且显现出与FDI的互补关系。对中美产品内贸易的实证研究结果显示,中美产品内贸易的发展在进、出口环节呈现出极大的不平衡。美国对华FDI、东亚经济体对华FDI与中国加入WTO的政策变量是影响中美产品内贸易水平的主要因素。随着中美产品内贸易水平的上升,两国制造业工人的实际工资差距呈现出缩小的趋势。总体上,中美产品内分工仍处于初级阶段,中美产品内贸易仍处于较低水平,在中美产品内贸易中,中国的贸易利得较少。
本文的主要创新之处在于:第一,通过对传统贸易模型的修正与拓展,分别在李嘉图模型与H-O模型的框架内,对产品内贸易的发生机制、贸易效应及产品内贸易与FDI的关系进行了详尽深入地数理分析,在对现有研究进行梳理和总结的基础上,建立了一个产品内贸易理论的综合分析框架。第二,本文首次将度量进口环节的产品内贸易程度指标与Hummels等(2001)建立的度量出口环节的产品内贸易程度指标相结合,运用投入产出法分别从进口与出口两个环节对中美产品内贸易水平进行了分产品的测算,获得了中美工业制品产品内贸易水平的时间序列数据,并对测算结果进行定性分析,得出一系列基本结论。第三,为了考察中美产品内贸易的主要影响因素和贸易利益分配状况,同时也为了检验数理分析和定性分析,本文首次尝试建立计量模型,以中美工业制品产品内贸易水平的时间序列为因变量进行回归分析,找到了影响中美产品内贸易水平发展的关键变量,并通过误差修正模型从收入分配的角度考察了中美两国在产品内贸易中的利益分配状况。
Intra-product trade has greatly increased over the last few decades, generally grown faster than total world trade in manufacturing. The rationales, patterns, and effects of intra-product trade are one of most discussed subjects in international trade theory. The extent of intra-product trade in Sino-U.S. commodity trade has also risen. It is necessary to examine the extent, determinants, trade gains, distribution of income, and implications of Sino-U.S. intra-product trade, which is both theoretically and practically valuable for Sino-U.S. trade development and for China to derive greater gains from trade.
Theoretically, the paper examines the causes and effects of intra-product trade in standard trade models, including the Ricardian Model, the Heckscher-Ohlin Model, and considers the role of economies of scale. It also analyzes the relationship between intra-product trade and FDI. Empirically, the paper sets up two indexes to measure the extent of intra-product trade, uses input-output tables to calculate the extent of intra-product trade in Sino-U.S. bilateral trade, both in export and import. Then by econometric approach, it finds out the main determinants and examines the effects on income distribution of Sino-U.S. intra-product trade and advances policy suggestions accordingly.
Theoretical analysis indicates that comparative advantage and economies of scale are basic rationales of intra-product trade, and its relationship with FDI is complementary. Empirical study indicates that the development of extent of Sino-U.S. intra-product trade in export and import is in great imbalance. The inward FDI from the United States, FDI from the East Asia, and China's WTO entry are the main factors influence the development of extent of Sino-U.S. intra-product trade. As the extent of Sino-U.S. intra-product trade rose, the gap of real wage level between Chinese and American manufacturing workers has been reduced. Generally, the intra-product specialization and trade between China and the United States are still in the primary stage, and China derives less trade gain in Sino-U.S. intra-product trade compared to its trade partner.
本文从理论与实证两个视角就中美产品内贸易进行了较为系统深入的研究。理论方面,论文在李嘉图模型、H-O理论以及新贸易理论的框架内,对产品内贸易的发生机制、贸易效应及FDI与产品内贸易的关系进行了考察。实证方面,运用投入产出法分别从进口与出口两个环节对中美产品内贸易水平进行了分产品的测算,获得了不同产品的产品内贸易水平的时间序列数据,通过计量模型找出影响中美产品内贸易水平发展的主要因素,并对其收入分配效应加以考察。最后就中美产品内贸易的发展中存在的主要问题提出了政策建议。
研究表明:比较优势和规模经济是产品内贸易的内在发生机制,各国按其比较优势在不同生产环节上进行专业化分工,不同环节中的规模经济差异则强化了这种分工结构,以产品内分工为基础的产品内贸易是一种互利贸易,能够提高国家福利,并且显现出与FDI的互补关系。对中美产品内贸易的实证研究结果显示,中美产品内贸易的发展在进、出口环节呈现出极大的不平衡。美国对华FDI、东亚经济体对华FDI与中国加入WTO的政策变量是影响中美产品内贸易水平的主要因素。随着中美产品内贸易水平的上升,两国制造业工人的实际工资差距呈现出缩小的趋势。总体上,中美产品内分工仍处于初级阶段,中美产品内贸易仍处于较低水平,在中美产品内贸易中,中国的贸易利得较少。
本文的主要创新之处在于:第一,通过对传统贸易模型的修正与拓展,分别在李嘉图模型与H-O模型的框架内,对产品内贸易的发生机制、贸易效应及产品内贸易与FDI的关系进行了详尽深入地数理分析,在对现有研究进行梳理和总结的基础上,建立了一个产品内贸易理论的综合分析框架。第二,本文首次将度量进口环节的产品内贸易程度指标与Hummels等(2001)建立的度量出口环节的产品内贸易程度指标相结合,运用投入产出法分别从进口与出口两个环节对中美产品内贸易水平进行了分产品的测算,获得了中美工业制品产品内贸易水平的时间序列数据,并对测算结果进行定性分析,得出一系列基本结论。第三,为了考察中美产品内贸易的主要影响因素和贸易利益分配状况,同时也为了检验数理分析和定性分析,本文首次尝试建立计量模型,以中美工业制品产品内贸易水平的时间序列为因变量进行回归分析,找到了影响中美产品内贸易水平发展的关键变量,并通过误差修正模型从收入分配的角度考察了中美两国在产品内贸易中的利益分配状况。
Intra-product trade has greatly increased over the last few decades, generally grown faster than total world trade in manufacturing. The rationales, patterns, and effects of intra-product trade are one of most discussed subjects in international trade theory. The extent of intra-product trade in Sino-U.S. commodity trade has also risen. It is necessary to examine the extent, determinants, trade gains, distribution of income, and implications of Sino-U.S. intra-product trade, which is both theoretically and practically valuable for Sino-U.S. trade development and for China to derive greater gains from trade.
Theoretically, the paper examines the causes and effects of intra-product trade in standard trade models, including the Ricardian Model, the Heckscher-Ohlin Model, and considers the role of economies of scale. It also analyzes the relationship between intra-product trade and FDI. Empirically, the paper sets up two indexes to measure the extent of intra-product trade, uses input-output tables to calculate the extent of intra-product trade in Sino-U.S. bilateral trade, both in export and import. Then by econometric approach, it finds out the main determinants and examines the effects on income distribution of Sino-U.S. intra-product trade and advances policy suggestions accordingly.
Theoretical analysis indicates that comparative advantage and economies of scale are basic rationales of intra-product trade, and its relationship with FDI is complementary. Empirical study indicates that the development of extent of Sino-U.S. intra-product trade in export and import is in great imbalance. The inward FDI from the United States, FDI from the East Asia, and China's WTO entry are the main factors influence the development of extent of Sino-U.S. intra-product trade. As the extent of Sino-U.S. intra-product trade rose, the gap of real wage level between Chinese and American manufacturing workers has been reduced. Generally, the intra-product specialization and trade between China and the United States are still in the primary stage, and China derives less trade gain in Sino-U.S. intra-product trade compared to its trade partner.
引文
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[1]广义上讲,产品内分工包括国际分工与国内分工。本文集中讨论国际产品内分工下的贸易,因此,若无特别说明,文中的“产品内分工”和“产品内贸易”均指国际分工与贸易。
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[1]引自卢锋.产品内分工[J].经济学(季刊),2004,(10):55-82
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[1]该图参考了高越,高峰(2006),《产品内贸易与外商直接投资的关系——理论模型与基于中国数据的经验分析》,数量经济技术经济研究[J],2006年第8期,p98-105,p102:图5、图6。
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[1]见北京大学中国经济研究中心课题组文章:据他们的测算,2003年,中国自日本、韩国和东盟国家进口的中间投入品价值在中国对美国的出口总值中所包含的全部中间投入品价值的大约50%。
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[1]广义上讲,产品内分工包括国际分工与国内分工。本文集中讨论国际产品内分工下的贸易,因此,若无特别说明,文中的“产品内分工”和“产品内贸易”均指国际分工与贸易。
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[2]海外组装生产,即“Offshore Assembly Provision”。
[3]ITO,一般包括系统操作服务、系统应用服务和基础技术服务。
[4]BPO,一般包括企业内部管理服务、企业业务运作服务和供应链管理服务。
[5]Helleiner,G K.Manufactured Exports from Less-developed Countries and Multinational Firms[J].The Economic Journal,1973,83(329):21-47
[6]Finger,J.M.Tariff Provisions for Offshore Assembly and the Exports of Developing Countries[J].The Economic Journal,1975,85(338):365-371
[7]Yi,Kei-Mu.Can Vertical Specialization Explain the Growth of World Trade?[J].Journal of Political Economy,2003,111(1):52-102
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[2]孙文远.产品内分工刍议[J].国际贸易问题,2006,(6):20-25
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[5]Hummels,D.,Rapoport,D.& Yi,Kei-Mu.Vertical Specialization and the Changing Nature of World Trade[J].FRBNY Economic Policy Review,2001,(4):79-99
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[8]Dixit,A.K.& Grossman,G.M.Trade and Protection with Multistage Production[J].Review of Economic Studies,1982,(49):583-594
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