石门揭煤突出危险性预测方法研究
|
摘要
煤与瓦斯突出是严重影响煤矿安全生产的自然灾害之一,在各种类型的突出中,石门揭煤由于其特殊的瓦斯存储条件,导致其发生突出的平均强度最大,破坏性极高,突出一旦发生,就将给矿井带来巨大的灾难。因此,石门揭煤工作面也是煤与瓦斯突出预测的重点。我国自上世纪70年代就开始对石门揭煤的突出危险性预测进行了研究,并提出了许多方法。但是面对众多的突出预测方法中给出的预测指标,到底哪一个才是突出敏感指标?其临界值如何确定?这些问题都是现场工作中感觉比较棘手的。为此,本文通过理论分析、模拟计算以及实验室的模拟试验等方法,对石门揭煤突出危险性预测方法进行了全面、深入的研究,为现场石门揭煤确定了一套最科学的突出危险性预测方法。
通过分析预测科学的一般规律,据此提出了对预测方法进行评定的标准。以这个标准为基础,确定了对石门揭煤突出危险性预测方法进行研究的步骤:首先,对各预测方法进行理论分析,研究了各种突出预测方法在理论上的合理性;然后,对各预测指标的测量不确定度进行评定,研究各预测指标测试结果的稳定性;最后,通过对各指标进行科学检验,研究其预测的准确性。
由于在现场对突出危险性预测方法进行科学检验非常困难,本文通过实验室的突出模拟试验来模拟现场石门揭煤的突出,以此为基础对各预测方法进行科学检验。并从煤与瓦斯突出的物理条件和力学条件两个方面对突出模拟试验与现场的相似性进行了研究,提出了相似性试验设计方案。
根据石门揭煤突出危险性预测方法的特征,本文对其进行了分类,其中初始释放瓦斯膨胀能指标和解吸指标属于综合指标,而D、K指标则是一种组合指标。通过对各指标进行理论分析得到的结果表明:初始释放瓦斯膨胀能指标能够综合反映影响煤与瓦斯突出的各个主要因素,反映了煤与瓦斯突出的本质,具有理论上的合理性。
在对各石门揭煤突出危险性预测指标测定的过程中,我们对测量不确定度的来源进行了分析,分别建立了评定各突出预测指标测量结果不确定度的数学模型,对各预测指标的测定结果进行了测量不确定度评定。并针对测量不确定度较大的指标编制了不确定度分量表,针对其不确定度的主要来源,提出了改进意见。
基于Fisher准则,对各预测指标进行了判别分析,得出了各突出预测指标的判别方程和临界值,将各预测指标的预测结果进行回判,结果表明:目前现场使用的各种石门揭煤突出危险性预测方法中,初始释放瓦斯膨胀能指标的回判的准确率最高,达到了97.8%;其它各种方法的预测准确率分别为K 1指标84.8%,? h 2指标71.7%,D、K指标82.6%。
通过部分石门及井筒揭煤的实践,对本论文所得到的研究结果进行了现场验证。验证结果表明,使用初始释放瓦斯膨胀能指标不仅能够准确预测实验室突出模拟试验的结果,对于预测现场石门及井筒揭煤的突出危险性,同样具有较高的准确性。与本论文的研究结果是向符合的。为现场对石门揭煤突出危险性进行预测提供了重要的手段。
该论文有图45幅,表32个,参考文献111篇。
Through theoretical analysis and simulation calculation as well as laboratory simulation tests and other means, this paper has studied the outburst of cross-cut uncovering coal fatalness prediction methods comprehensively and deeply, and identified a set of the most scientific way.
This paper has analysis the general laws of the predictive science, and then proposed the standard to assess the forecasting methods. On the basis of this standard, the steps of this study are as follows: First, conducting theoretical analysis of the various forecasting methods; and then assessing the uncertainty of the measurement outcome of the various predictors; finally, scientifically verifying the various indexes.
Aiming at the difficulties in the on-site scientific examination of outburst fatalness prediction methods, we have put forward using laboratory outburst simulation test to simulate the on-site cross-cut uncovering coal, and on this basis to conduct scientific test to various prediction methods. And from coal and gas outburst conditions and physical conditions, we have conducted a study about the similarity between outburst simulation test and spot test, and put forward a similar test design project.
According to the characteristics to classify the various prediction methods, in which the expansion energy of initial released gas of coal and Methane desorption indexes belong to comprehensive index, while the D, K index can only be regarded as a combination of indexes. On this basis to theoretically analyze the various indexes.
Analyzing the source of the uncertainty of measurement in the process of measuring the cross-cut uncovering outburst fatalness prediction indexes, we have separately established the mathematical model of assessing the uncertainty of measurement, and on the basis evaluated the measurement results of various indexes. And according to the larger uncertainty for the measurement of indexes, we have worked out the sub-scales of uncertainty, and for its main source, we have proposed improvement suggestions.
On Fisher criteria conducting discriminate analysis to the measurement results of various indexes, we have obtained discriminate equation and the corresponding critical value by using various indexes to predict the fatalness of outburst, and then comparing to the results of outburst simulation test conducted sub-return discriminate analysis to the various indexes.
Several cross-cut and shaft uncovering coal has test on-site the research results of the paper. And the result shows that using the initial release of the gas expansion energy indexes, not only are predicted accurately the result of laboratory outburst simulation test, but also cross-cut and shaft uncovering coal outburst fatalness on-site.
The paper has 45 drawn Pictures, 32 Tables, and 111 References.
通过分析预测科学的一般规律,据此提出了对预测方法进行评定的标准。以这个标准为基础,确定了对石门揭煤突出危险性预测方法进行研究的步骤:首先,对各预测方法进行理论分析,研究了各种突出预测方法在理论上的合理性;然后,对各预测指标的测量不确定度进行评定,研究各预测指标测试结果的稳定性;最后,通过对各指标进行科学检验,研究其预测的准确性。
由于在现场对突出危险性预测方法进行科学检验非常困难,本文通过实验室的突出模拟试验来模拟现场石门揭煤的突出,以此为基础对各预测方法进行科学检验。并从煤与瓦斯突出的物理条件和力学条件两个方面对突出模拟试验与现场的相似性进行了研究,提出了相似性试验设计方案。
根据石门揭煤突出危险性预测方法的特征,本文对其进行了分类,其中初始释放瓦斯膨胀能指标和解吸指标属于综合指标,而D、K指标则是一种组合指标。通过对各指标进行理论分析得到的结果表明:初始释放瓦斯膨胀能指标能够综合反映影响煤与瓦斯突出的各个主要因素,反映了煤与瓦斯突出的本质,具有理论上的合理性。
在对各石门揭煤突出危险性预测指标测定的过程中,我们对测量不确定度的来源进行了分析,分别建立了评定各突出预测指标测量结果不确定度的数学模型,对各预测指标的测定结果进行了测量不确定度评定。并针对测量不确定度较大的指标编制了不确定度分量表,针对其不确定度的主要来源,提出了改进意见。
基于Fisher准则,对各预测指标进行了判别分析,得出了各突出预测指标的判别方程和临界值,将各预测指标的预测结果进行回判,结果表明:目前现场使用的各种石门揭煤突出危险性预测方法中,初始释放瓦斯膨胀能指标的回判的准确率最高,达到了97.8%;其它各种方法的预测准确率分别为K 1指标84.8%,? h 2指标71.7%,D、K指标82.6%。
通过部分石门及井筒揭煤的实践,对本论文所得到的研究结果进行了现场验证。验证结果表明,使用初始释放瓦斯膨胀能指标不仅能够准确预测实验室突出模拟试验的结果,对于预测现场石门及井筒揭煤的突出危险性,同样具有较高的准确性。与本论文的研究结果是向符合的。为现场对石门揭煤突出危险性进行预测提供了重要的手段。
该论文有图45幅,表32个,参考文献111篇。
Through theoretical analysis and simulation calculation as well as laboratory simulation tests and other means, this paper has studied the outburst of cross-cut uncovering coal fatalness prediction methods comprehensively and deeply, and identified a set of the most scientific way.
This paper has analysis the general laws of the predictive science, and then proposed the standard to assess the forecasting methods. On the basis of this standard, the steps of this study are as follows: First, conducting theoretical analysis of the various forecasting methods; and then assessing the uncertainty of the measurement outcome of the various predictors; finally, scientifically verifying the various indexes.
Aiming at the difficulties in the on-site scientific examination of outburst fatalness prediction methods, we have put forward using laboratory outburst simulation test to simulate the on-site cross-cut uncovering coal, and on this basis to conduct scientific test to various prediction methods. And from coal and gas outburst conditions and physical conditions, we have conducted a study about the similarity between outburst simulation test and spot test, and put forward a similar test design project.
According to the characteristics to classify the various prediction methods, in which the expansion energy of initial released gas of coal and Methane desorption indexes belong to comprehensive index, while the D, K index can only be regarded as a combination of indexes. On this basis to theoretically analyze the various indexes.
Analyzing the source of the uncertainty of measurement in the process of measuring the cross-cut uncovering outburst fatalness prediction indexes, we have separately established the mathematical model of assessing the uncertainty of measurement, and on the basis evaluated the measurement results of various indexes. And according to the larger uncertainty for the measurement of indexes, we have worked out the sub-scales of uncertainty, and for its main source, we have proposed improvement suggestions.
On Fisher criteria conducting discriminate analysis to the measurement results of various indexes, we have obtained discriminate equation and the corresponding critical value by using various indexes to predict the fatalness of outburst, and then comparing to the results of outburst simulation test conducted sub-return discriminate analysis to the various indexes.
Several cross-cut and shaft uncovering coal has test on-site the research results of the paper. And the result shows that using the initial release of the gas expansion energy indexes, not only are predicted accurately the result of laboratory outburst simulation test, but also cross-cut and shaft uncovering coal outburst fatalness on-site.
The paper has 45 drawn Pictures, 32 Tables, and 111 References.
引文
[1]俞启香.矿井瓦斯防治[M].中国矿业大学出版社,1992
[2]蒋承林,俞启香.煤与瓦斯突出的球壳失稳机理及防治技术[M].徐州:中国矿业大学出版社,1998,94~98
[3]中华人民共和国煤炭工业部.防治煤与瓦斯突出细则.北京:煤炭工业出版社,1995
[4]于不凡.石门揭煤时突出危险性预测新方法、新装备[J].长江科学院院报,第13卷,增刊,1996,9.74~76
[5]王佑安等.煤矿安全手册第二篇,矿井瓦斯防治[M].北京:煤炭工业出版社,1994.262~263
[6]李建铭等.煤与瓦斯突出防治技术手册[M].徐州:中国矿业大学出版社,2006.204
[7]张连玉,汪翎,苗瑞生.爆炸气体动力学基础[M].北京:北京工业学院出版社,1987.289~306
[8]中华人民共和国国家安全生产监督管理总局,《防治煤与瓦斯突出规定》,煤炭工业出版社,2009.7.P15~16。
[9]王魁军,程五一,栾永祥.预测敏感指标及临界值的确定[J].煤炭科学技术,1996.11.44~45
[10]王佑安,王魁军.工作面突出危险性预测敏感指标确定方法探讨[J].煤矿安全,1991.10.9~14
[11]张铁岗,张建国,魏风清.煤与瓦斯突出工作面预测指标可靠性评价方法[J].矿业安全与环保,1999年第2期.30~32
[12]马永德,梅甫定.大平煤矿煤巷掘进中突出敏感指标及其临界值的确定[J].安全与环境工程,2008.12.107~110
[13]中华人民共和国煤炭工业部.防治煤与瓦斯突出细则.北京:煤炭工业出版社,1988
[14]王魁安,王佑安.北票煤田掘进工作面突出预测方法研究[J].阜新矿业学院学报(自然科学版),1996.1.22~26
[15]徐廷奎.确定突出危险性敏感指标及其临界值的实践[J].矿业安全与环保,2001.10.53~55
[16]赵旭生,董银生,岳超平.煤与瓦斯突出预测敏感指标及其临界值的确定方法[J].矿业安全与环保,2007.6.28~30
[17]傅德印,刘晓梅.预测方法与应用[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2003.9
[18] George E·P·Box , Gwily M. Jenkins Time Series Analysis : Forecasting and Control Rev·Ed·Holden—Day .(Third Edition)
[19] S·Markridakis, S·C·Wheelwright. V·E·Mcqee Forecasting:Methods and Applications,John Wily and Sons,1983
[20]文光才,赵旭生等.大弯矿突出预测敏感指标及其临界值的研究[R].重庆:煤炭科学研究总院重庆分院,2003.
[21]于不凡.煤和瓦斯突出机理.北京:煤炭工业出版社,1985
[22]马泰伊(法).毕达哥拉斯和毕达歌拉斯学[M].巴黎:商务印书馆,1997.5.
[23]高志亮,李忠良.系统工程方法论[M].西安:西北工业大学出版社,2004.8.
[24]蒋承林.煤层透气性测定方法的研究[D].北京:中国矿业大学北京研究生部,1985.29.
[25]霍多特BB(苏).煤和瓦斯突出[M].宋士钊,王佑安译.北京:中国工业出版社,1996.3~16
[26]包尔申斯基,马叶夫斯基M·И,卡昌B·C(苏).瓦斯动力现象中岩石破坏机理的研究[J].华福明译.煤矿安全技术,1983(1):3~16
[27]郑哲敏.从数量级和量纲分析看煤和瓦斯突出机理,力学与生产建设[M].西安:北京大学出版社,1982 .128~137
[28]氏平增之,矶部俊朗,通口澄志.内部ガス压じよろ多孔介质の破坏づロヤスじっムて—ガス突出じすろ研究(第二报)—[M].日本矿业会志,1984(100).397~403
[29] Paterson L·A modle for outbursts in coal,Int. J. Rock Mech. Min. Sci. & Geomech. Abutr. 1986(23):327~332
[30]丁晓良.煤在瓦斯渗流作用下破坏及其持续扩展的机制[D].北京:中国科学院力学研究所,1988
[31]俞善炳.恒稳推进的煤与瓦斯突出[J].力学学报,1988,20(2):97~105
[32]何学秋,周世林.煤和瓦斯突出机理的流变假说[J].煤矿安全,1991.
[33]何学秋.含瓦斯煤流变特性及其对煤和瓦斯突出的影响[D].徐州:中国矿业大学,1990.
[34]钱鸣高,石平五.矿山压力与岩层控制[M].徐州:中国矿业大学出版社,2003.40~45
[35]蒋承林,俞启香.煤与瓦斯突出机理的球壳失稳假说[J].煤矿安全,1995.2.17~25
[36]唐春安,刘红元.石门揭煤突出过程的数值模拟研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2002.10.1467~1672
[37]周世宁,林柏泉.煤层瓦斯赋存与流动理论[M] .北京:煤炭工业出版社,1998.36,82～83
[38]林柏泉,何学秋.煤层透气性及其对煤与瓦斯突出的影响[J] .煤炭科学技术,1991.50～53
[39]谈慕华,黄蕴元.表面物理化学[M] .北京:中国建筑工业出版社,1985
[40]赵阳升,杨栋.煤矿瓦斯灾害现状与防治对策[A] .煤矿瓦斯灾害防治理论战略研讨[C] .徐州:中国矿业大学出版社,2001
[41]蒋承林.煤矿井下动力现象的分类研究[J] .湘潭矿业学院学报,1998.12,1～6
[42] Brand B H G,Brown E T.地下采矿岩石力学[M] .冯树仁,余诗刚,朱祚铎等译.北京:煤炭工业出版社1990.174～179
[43]蒋承林.石门揭穿含瓦斯煤层时动力现象的球壳失稳机理研究[D] .徐州:中国矿业大学,1994.31～38
[44]庞麓鸣,旺梦乐,冯海仙.工程热力学[M] .北京:人民教育出版社,1980. 43
[45]华安增.地应力与煤和瓦斯突出的关系[J] .中国矿业大学学报,1978,20～32
[46]中国矿业学院瓦斯组.煤和瓦斯突出的防治[M] .北京:煤炭工业出版社,1979.4,16
[47] B·и·HиKOлиH.Методугляигазапредохранениявидно[M] .ВезoпаснОСТЬтрулавпромвгшленостн,1973.NO7,33~35
[48]杨其中,王湘等译.煤和瓦斯突出防治技术论文集[M] .北京:煤炭工业出版社,259~264
[49]蒋承林.煤与瓦斯突出阵面的推进过程及力学条件分析[J] .中国矿业大学学报,1994,1~9
[50]蒋承林,俞启香.煤与瓦斯突出过程中能量耗散规律的研究[J] .煤炭学报,1996,4,173~179
[51]景国勋,张强.煤与瓦斯突出过程中瓦斯作用的研究[J] .煤炭学报,2005.4,169~171
[52]王佑安,杨其銮.煤和瓦斯突出危险性预测[J] .煤矿安全,1988.4,35
[53]蒋承林,李铁磊.现行煤的坚固性测定方法的研究与改进[J] .煤矿安全,1994.2,14~16
[55]华安增.矿山岩石力学基础[M] .北京:煤炭工业出版社,1980,49
[56]王佑安.煤和瓦斯突出危险性预测方法[J] .煤矿安全,1984.4,1~7
[57]韩颖,蒋承林.初始释放瓦斯膨胀能与煤层瓦斯压力的关系[J] .中国矿业大学学报,2005, 5:650~654
[58]李晓伟,蒋承林等.初始释放瓦斯膨胀能与煤体破碎程度的关系研究[J] .煤矿安全,2008, 5:1~3
[59]魏建平,陈永超,温志辉.构造煤瓦斯解吸规律研究[J] .煤矿安全,2009,8,1~3
[60] R·M·Barrer.Diffusion in and through Solid.Cambridge University Press, 1951
[61] F·N·Kissell.Methane in Coal.IC 8621 Bureau of Mines, 1973
[62]于良臣.地质勘探过程中应用解吸方法直接测定煤层瓦斯含量试验总结.见:煤炭科学研究总院抚顺分院编.内部资料,1981
[63]胡千庭,文光才.WTC瓦斯突出参数仪及其应用[J] .煤炭工程师,1994,4,2~4
[64]胡千庭.对钻屑瓦斯解吸指标预测突出敏感性的探讨[J] .煤矿安全,1997,10,41~44
[65]王佑安,朴春杰.井下煤的瓦斯解吸指标及其与煤层区域突出危险性的关系[J] .煤矿安全,1981,11,16~21
[67] P·G·Sevenster.Diffusion of Gases through Coal.Fuel, 1959(38)
[68]富向,王魁军,杨天鸿.构造煤的瓦斯放散特征[J] .煤炭学报,2008,7,765~769
[69]富向,王魁军,杨宏伟,何晓东.煤粒瓦斯放散规律数学模型的应用[J] .煤矿安全,2006,12,1~3
[70]邓全封,栾永祥,王佑安.煤与瓦斯突出模拟试验[J] .煤矿安全,1989,11,5~10
[71]张连玉,汪翎,苗瑞生.爆炸气体动力学基础[M] .北京:北京工业学院出版社,1987,289~306
[72]贾月梅.流体力学[M].北京:国防工业出版社,2006
[73]潘文全.流体力学基础(下册)[M].北京:机械工业出版社,2006,11~13
[74]刘鹤年.流体力学[M].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,2004
[75]张鸿雁,张志政,王元.流体力学.北京:科学出版社,2004
[76]朱爱民.流体力学基础.北京:中国计量出版社,2004
[77]蒋承林,陈松立,陈艳云.煤样中的初始释放瓦斯膨胀能的测定[J] .岩石力学与工程学报,1996,4,395~400
[78]伍荣林,王振羽.风洞设计原理[M] .北京:北京航空学院出版社,1985,52
[79]王孝华,陆鑫盛.气动元件[M] .北京:机械工业出版社,1991,18~20
[80]于不凡.煤和瓦斯突出机理[M].北京:煤炭工业出版社,1985
[81]曹垚林,富向,蒋清华.WT—2000型瓦斯放散速度测定仪的研制及其在淮南矿区的应用[J] .煤矿安全,2005,7,19~22
[82]中华人民共和国煤炭工业部.钻屑瓦斯解吸指标的测定方法.MT/T 641-1996.1997-11-01实施
[83]李之光.相似与模化[M].北京:国防工业出版社,1982
[84]鲁宗厚.“瓦斯放散初速度”?P测定中的问题与改进[J].工业安全与防尘,1992,9,39~41
[85] Meyers R A, Coal structure. New York: Academic Press, 1982. 78~83
[86]蒋承林.煤壁突出孔洞的形成机理研究[J] .岩石力学与工程学报,2000,225~228
[87]蒋承林,俞启香.煤与瓦斯突出的球壳失稳假说[J] .煤矿安全,1995,17~25
[88]中国航空研究院.应力强度因子手册[J] .北京:科学出版社,1981.2,67
[89]李贺.岩石断裂力学[J] .重庆:重庆大学出版社,1988.110~ 113,98,40
[90]徐芝纶.弹性理论[M].北京:高等教育出版社,1978,295~323.
[91]吴连元.板壳理论[M].上海:上海交通大学出版社,1989.6,456~466.
[92]成祥生.应用板壳理论[M].山东科技出版社,1989.8, 531~557.
[93]施能.气象统计预报中的多元统计分析[M].北京:气象出版社,1992.267~332.
[94]王学仁.地质数据的多变量统计分析[M].北京:科学出版社,1986.150~193.
[95]李慎安,施昌彦等.测量不确定度评定与表示[M].国家质量技术监督局,1999.
[96]李鸿昌.矿山压力的相似性模拟试验[M].徐州:中国矿业大学出版社,1988
[97]洪伟,吴承祯.试验设计与分析—原理、操作、案例.北京:中国林业出版社,2004
[98]蒋承林,陈松立,陈艳云.煤样中初始释放瓦斯膨胀能的测定[J].岩石力学与工程学报,1996,12
[99]中国计量科学研究院.JJF1059-1999 [M].国家质量技术监督局,1999
[100] Guide to the expression of uncertainty in measurement.ISO.1993
[101] G·Betta, C·Liguori.Propagation of uncertainty in a discrete Fourier transform algorithm, Measurement.
[102] G·Betta, C·Liguori.Uncertainty analysis in fast Fourier Transform algorithms .IMEKO TC-4 International Symposium .Naples, Italy,September 1998,pp.747-752
[103]《Simulation Modeling and Analysis 3/e》,p.465~p.466
[104]刘智敏.《误差分布论》,原子能出版社,1988.
[105] Buckland S T, 1984, Monte Carlo confidence intervals Biometries, 40, 811.
[106] LIU Zhimin. Uncertainly and Its Practice[M] .Beijing :China Standard Press,2000.
[107]茅庆潭.测量不确定度评定与表示培训辅导教材[M].北京万有质量技术咨询中心
[108] Jiang Chenglin.Quick determination of gas pressure before uncovering coal in cross-cuts and shafts[J] Mining Science and Technology,2008(4),494～499
[109] Jiang Chenglin.Fast prediction for outburst risk before coal un-covering in shaft and cross-cut [J]6th international conference on mining science & technology.2009 A-17
[110] Chen Yujia. Effect of aeration on fast gas pressure tests[J] Mining Science and Technology,2009(6),756～760
[111] Yuan Liang, Study on critical modern technology for mining in gassy deep mines, Journal of China University of Mining & Technology, 2007, 17(2): 226–231
[2]蒋承林,俞启香.煤与瓦斯突出的球壳失稳机理及防治技术[M].徐州:中国矿业大学出版社,1998,94~98
[3]中华人民共和国煤炭工业部.防治煤与瓦斯突出细则.北京:煤炭工业出版社,1995
[4]于不凡.石门揭煤时突出危险性预测新方法、新装备[J].长江科学院院报,第13卷,增刊,1996,9.74~76
[5]王佑安等.煤矿安全手册第二篇,矿井瓦斯防治[M].北京:煤炭工业出版社,1994.262~263
[6]李建铭等.煤与瓦斯突出防治技术手册[M].徐州:中国矿业大学出版社,2006.204
[7]张连玉,汪翎,苗瑞生.爆炸气体动力学基础[M].北京:北京工业学院出版社,1987.289~306
[8]中华人民共和国国家安全生产监督管理总局,《防治煤与瓦斯突出规定》,煤炭工业出版社,2009.7.P15~16。
[9]王魁军,程五一,栾永祥.预测敏感指标及临界值的确定[J].煤炭科学技术,1996.11.44~45
[10]王佑安,王魁军.工作面突出危险性预测敏感指标确定方法探讨[J].煤矿安全,1991.10.9~14
[11]张铁岗,张建国,魏风清.煤与瓦斯突出工作面预测指标可靠性评价方法[J].矿业安全与环保,1999年第2期.30~32
[12]马永德,梅甫定.大平煤矿煤巷掘进中突出敏感指标及其临界值的确定[J].安全与环境工程,2008.12.107~110
[13]中华人民共和国煤炭工业部.防治煤与瓦斯突出细则.北京:煤炭工业出版社,1988
[14]王魁安,王佑安.北票煤田掘进工作面突出预测方法研究[J].阜新矿业学院学报(自然科学版),1996.1.22~26
[15]徐廷奎.确定突出危险性敏感指标及其临界值的实践[J].矿业安全与环保,2001.10.53~55
[16]赵旭生,董银生,岳超平.煤与瓦斯突出预测敏感指标及其临界值的确定方法[J].矿业安全与环保,2007.6.28~30
[17]傅德印,刘晓梅.预测方法与应用[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2003.9
[18] George E·P·Box , Gwily M. Jenkins Time Series Analysis : Forecasting and Control Rev·Ed·Holden—Day .(Third Edition)
[19] S·Markridakis, S·C·Wheelwright. V·E·Mcqee Forecasting:Methods and Applications,John Wily and Sons,1983
[20]文光才,赵旭生等.大弯矿突出预测敏感指标及其临界值的研究[R].重庆:煤炭科学研究总院重庆分院,2003.
[21]于不凡.煤和瓦斯突出机理.北京:煤炭工业出版社,1985
[22]马泰伊(法).毕达哥拉斯和毕达歌拉斯学[M].巴黎:商务印书馆,1997.5.
[23]高志亮,李忠良.系统工程方法论[M].西安:西北工业大学出版社,2004.8.
[24]蒋承林.煤层透气性测定方法的研究[D].北京:中国矿业大学北京研究生部,1985.29.
[25]霍多特BB(苏).煤和瓦斯突出[M].宋士钊,王佑安译.北京:中国工业出版社,1996.3~16
[26]包尔申斯基,马叶夫斯基M·И,卡昌B·C(苏).瓦斯动力现象中岩石破坏机理的研究[J].华福明译.煤矿安全技术,1983(1):3~16
[27]郑哲敏.从数量级和量纲分析看煤和瓦斯突出机理,力学与生产建设[M].西安:北京大学出版社,1982 .128~137
[28]氏平增之,矶部俊朗,通口澄志.内部ガス压じよろ多孔介质の破坏づロヤスじっムて—ガス突出じすろ研究(第二报)—[M].日本矿业会志,1984(100).397~403
[29] Paterson L·A modle for outbursts in coal,Int. J. Rock Mech. Min. Sci. & Geomech. Abutr. 1986(23):327~332
[30]丁晓良.煤在瓦斯渗流作用下破坏及其持续扩展的机制[D].北京:中国科学院力学研究所,1988
[31]俞善炳.恒稳推进的煤与瓦斯突出[J].力学学报,1988,20(2):97~105
[32]何学秋,周世林.煤和瓦斯突出机理的流变假说[J].煤矿安全,1991.
[33]何学秋.含瓦斯煤流变特性及其对煤和瓦斯突出的影响[D].徐州:中国矿业大学,1990.
[34]钱鸣高,石平五.矿山压力与岩层控制[M].徐州:中国矿业大学出版社,2003.40~45
[35]蒋承林,俞启香.煤与瓦斯突出机理的球壳失稳假说[J].煤矿安全,1995.2.17~25
[36]唐春安,刘红元.石门揭煤突出过程的数值模拟研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2002.10.1467~1672
[37]周世宁,林柏泉.煤层瓦斯赋存与流动理论[M] .北京:煤炭工业出版社,1998.36,82～83
[38]林柏泉,何学秋.煤层透气性及其对煤与瓦斯突出的影响[J] .煤炭科学技术,1991.50～53
[39]谈慕华,黄蕴元.表面物理化学[M] .北京:中国建筑工业出版社,1985
[40]赵阳升,杨栋.煤矿瓦斯灾害现状与防治对策[A] .煤矿瓦斯灾害防治理论战略研讨[C] .徐州:中国矿业大学出版社,2001
[41]蒋承林.煤矿井下动力现象的分类研究[J] .湘潭矿业学院学报,1998.12,1～6
[42] Brand B H G,Brown E T.地下采矿岩石力学[M] .冯树仁,余诗刚,朱祚铎等译.北京:煤炭工业出版社1990.174～179
[43]蒋承林.石门揭穿含瓦斯煤层时动力现象的球壳失稳机理研究[D] .徐州:中国矿业大学,1994.31～38
[44]庞麓鸣,旺梦乐,冯海仙.工程热力学[M] .北京:人民教育出版社,1980. 43
[45]华安增.地应力与煤和瓦斯突出的关系[J] .中国矿业大学学报,1978,20～32
[46]中国矿业学院瓦斯组.煤和瓦斯突出的防治[M] .北京:煤炭工业出版社,1979.4,16
[47] B·и·HиKOлиH.Методугляигазапредохранениявидно[M] .ВезoпаснОСТЬтрулавпромвгшленостн,1973.NO7,33~35
[48]杨其中,王湘等译.煤和瓦斯突出防治技术论文集[M] .北京:煤炭工业出版社,259~264
[49]蒋承林.煤与瓦斯突出阵面的推进过程及力学条件分析[J] .中国矿业大学学报,1994,1~9
[50]蒋承林,俞启香.煤与瓦斯突出过程中能量耗散规律的研究[J] .煤炭学报,1996,4,173~179
[51]景国勋,张强.煤与瓦斯突出过程中瓦斯作用的研究[J] .煤炭学报,2005.4,169~171
[52]王佑安,杨其銮.煤和瓦斯突出危险性预测[J] .煤矿安全,1988.4,35
[53]蒋承林,李铁磊.现行煤的坚固性测定方法的研究与改进[J] .煤矿安全,1994.2,14~16
[55]华安增.矿山岩石力学基础[M] .北京:煤炭工业出版社,1980,49
[56]王佑安.煤和瓦斯突出危险性预测方法[J] .煤矿安全,1984.4,1~7
[57]韩颖,蒋承林.初始释放瓦斯膨胀能与煤层瓦斯压力的关系[J] .中国矿业大学学报,2005, 5:650~654
[58]李晓伟,蒋承林等.初始释放瓦斯膨胀能与煤体破碎程度的关系研究[J] .煤矿安全,2008, 5:1~3
[59]魏建平,陈永超,温志辉.构造煤瓦斯解吸规律研究[J] .煤矿安全,2009,8,1~3
[60] R·M·Barrer.Diffusion in and through Solid.Cambridge University Press, 1951
[61] F·N·Kissell.Methane in Coal.IC 8621 Bureau of Mines, 1973
[62]于良臣.地质勘探过程中应用解吸方法直接测定煤层瓦斯含量试验总结.见:煤炭科学研究总院抚顺分院编.内部资料,1981
[63]胡千庭,文光才.WTC瓦斯突出参数仪及其应用[J] .煤炭工程师,1994,4,2~4
[64]胡千庭.对钻屑瓦斯解吸指标预测突出敏感性的探讨[J] .煤矿安全,1997,10,41~44
[65]王佑安,朴春杰.井下煤的瓦斯解吸指标及其与煤层区域突出危险性的关系[J] .煤矿安全,1981,11,16~21
[67] P·G·Sevenster.Diffusion of Gases through Coal.Fuel, 1959(38)
[68]富向,王魁军,杨天鸿.构造煤的瓦斯放散特征[J] .煤炭学报,2008,7,765~769
[69]富向,王魁军,杨宏伟,何晓东.煤粒瓦斯放散规律数学模型的应用[J] .煤矿安全,2006,12,1~3
[70]邓全封,栾永祥,王佑安.煤与瓦斯突出模拟试验[J] .煤矿安全,1989,11,5~10
[71]张连玉,汪翎,苗瑞生.爆炸气体动力学基础[M] .北京:北京工业学院出版社,1987,289~306
[72]贾月梅.流体力学[M].北京:国防工业出版社,2006
[73]潘文全.流体力学基础(下册)[M].北京:机械工业出版社,2006,11~13
[74]刘鹤年.流体力学[M].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,2004
[75]张鸿雁,张志政,王元.流体力学.北京:科学出版社,2004
[76]朱爱民.流体力学基础.北京:中国计量出版社,2004
[77]蒋承林,陈松立,陈艳云.煤样中的初始释放瓦斯膨胀能的测定[J] .岩石力学与工程学报,1996,4,395~400
[78]伍荣林,王振羽.风洞设计原理[M] .北京:北京航空学院出版社,1985,52
[79]王孝华,陆鑫盛.气动元件[M] .北京:机械工业出版社,1991,18~20
[80]于不凡.煤和瓦斯突出机理[M].北京:煤炭工业出版社,1985
[81]曹垚林,富向,蒋清华.WT—2000型瓦斯放散速度测定仪的研制及其在淮南矿区的应用[J] .煤矿安全,2005,7,19~22
[82]中华人民共和国煤炭工业部.钻屑瓦斯解吸指标的测定方法.MT/T 641-1996.1997-11-01实施
[83]李之光.相似与模化[M].北京:国防工业出版社,1982
[84]鲁宗厚.“瓦斯放散初速度”?P测定中的问题与改进[J].工业安全与防尘,1992,9,39~41
[85] Meyers R A, Coal structure. New York: Academic Press, 1982. 78~83
[86]蒋承林.煤壁突出孔洞的形成机理研究[J] .岩石力学与工程学报,2000,225~228
[87]蒋承林,俞启香.煤与瓦斯突出的球壳失稳假说[J] .煤矿安全,1995,17~25
[88]中国航空研究院.应力强度因子手册[J] .北京:科学出版社,1981.2,67
[89]李贺.岩石断裂力学[J] .重庆:重庆大学出版社,1988.110~ 113,98,40
[90]徐芝纶.弹性理论[M].北京:高等教育出版社,1978,295~323.
[91]吴连元.板壳理论[M].上海:上海交通大学出版社,1989.6,456~466.
[92]成祥生.应用板壳理论[M].山东科技出版社,1989.8, 531~557.
[93]施能.气象统计预报中的多元统计分析[M].北京:气象出版社,1992.267~332.
[94]王学仁.地质数据的多变量统计分析[M].北京:科学出版社,1986.150~193.
[95]李慎安,施昌彦等.测量不确定度评定与表示[M].国家质量技术监督局,1999.
[96]李鸿昌.矿山压力的相似性模拟试验[M].徐州:中国矿业大学出版社,1988
[97]洪伟,吴承祯.试验设计与分析—原理、操作、案例.北京:中国林业出版社,2004
[98]蒋承林,陈松立,陈艳云.煤样中初始释放瓦斯膨胀能的测定[J].岩石力学与工程学报,1996,12
[99]中国计量科学研究院.JJF1059-1999 [M].国家质量技术监督局,1999
[100] Guide to the expression of uncertainty in measurement.ISO.1993
[101] G·Betta, C·Liguori.Propagation of uncertainty in a discrete Fourier transform algorithm, Measurement.
[102] G·Betta, C·Liguori.Uncertainty analysis in fast Fourier Transform algorithms .IMEKO TC-4 International Symposium .Naples, Italy,September 1998,pp.747-752
[103]《Simulation Modeling and Analysis 3/e》,p.465~p.466
[104]刘智敏.《误差分布论》,原子能出版社,1988.
[105] Buckland S T, 1984, Monte Carlo confidence intervals Biometries, 40, 811.
[106] LIU Zhimin. Uncertainly and Its Practice[M] .Beijing :China Standard Press,2000.
[107]茅庆潭.测量不确定度评定与表示培训辅导教材[M].北京万有质量技术咨询中心
[108] Jiang Chenglin.Quick determination of gas pressure before uncovering coal in cross-cuts and shafts[J] Mining Science and Technology,2008(4),494～499
[109] Jiang Chenglin.Fast prediction for outburst risk before coal un-covering in shaft and cross-cut [J]6th international conference on mining science & technology.2009 A-17
[110] Chen Yujia. Effect of aeration on fast gas pressure tests[J] Mining Science and Technology,2009(6),756～760
[111] Yuan Liang, Study on critical modern technology for mining in gassy deep mines, Journal of China University of Mining & Technology, 2007, 17(2): 226–231