城区地价监测预警研究
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摘要
20世纪80年代以来,城市土地使用制度改革不断深化,城市土地从“无偿、无限期、无流动”到“有偿、有限期、有流动”利用,逐步进行了收取国有土地使用费(税),城镇国有土地使用权的出让与转让,商品房开发等改革,随着土地有偿使用制度改革的不断深入,我国土地市场建设从无到有、从点到面取得了长足的发展,土地在城市建设及社会经济发展中的作用和价值日益显现出来。土地供应成为新时期国家宏观调控的重要手段,地价也成为了土地市场运作重要的衡量和价格判断工具,为制定合理的地价政策,必须要充分了解和掌握城市地价的动态变化和空间分布,因此,建立城市地价动态监测体系成为了必然,贵阳市于2001年完成城市土地分类定级、地价动态监测体系的基础工作,地价动态监测体系的建立,为掌握城市土地市场价格水平,经营城市土地,保障土地市场健康、稳定发展提供了重要依据。
本文结合国内外城市地价动态监测体系现状,借鉴房地产市场监测预警理论与方法,在近几年来各位学者对土地市场预警研究的思路的基础上,对贵阳市中心城区土地价格市场监测及预警进行了一定的实践运用。文章共分为六个部分:其中绪论部分详细分析了研究的背景和意义,总结了国内外房地产监测预警理论与技术的研究动态;第二部分对城市地价管理状况进行了分析;第三部分对城市地价动态监测预警的方法与过程进行了探讨;第四部分以贵阳市中心城区为例对城市地价动态监测预警进行了实证研究,分析了贵阳市城市地价的变化原因及存在问题,并对未来地价走势情况进行了阐述;第五部分则根据贵阳市中心城区土地市场的现状及预警结果,对其土地市场建设和管理提出了相应的对策和调控想法;第六部分为结语部分。
文章对贵阳市中心城区地价监测预警的实证研究结果是:①目前贵阳市中心城区地价水平基本合理,与其社会经济发展水平相适应②地价水平将继续稳步攀升,短期内不会有大的警情出现。
Since the city land use system reform has deepened unceasingly in the 1980s, the use of the urban land from "free, unlimited time, does not have the flowing" to"paid, has the flowing by a set time" , it has carried on the collection state-owned land working cost gradually (tax), cities state-owned land right of use's selling with transfers, reforms and commercial housing development. Along with land paid use system reform unceasingly thorough, our country land market construction grew out of nothing, has made the considerable progress from the spot to the area, the land appears day by day in the urban construction and the socio-economic development function and the value comes out. The land supplied into the new time country macroeconomic regulation and control the important means that the soil-rent value has also become the land market operation important weight and the price judgment tool, therefore, established the urban soil-rent value dynamic monitor system to become the necessity, Guiyang completed the city land classification grade, the soil-rent value dynamic monitor system's establishment work, the soil-rent value dynamic monitor system's establishment in 2001, to grasp the urban land market price level, managed the urban land, protect land market ,which have provided the important basis.
This article unifies the domestic and foreign urban soil-rent value dynamic monitor system present situation, profits from the real estate market monitor early warning theory and the method, in the last few years the fellow scholars to the land market early warning research's mentality's foundation, has carried on certain practice utilization to the Guiyang town center city land price market monitor and the early warning. The article altogether divides into six parts: the introduction part multianalysed research's background and the significance, summaried the domestic and foreign real estate monitor early warning theory and the technical research tendency; The second part has carried on the analysis to the urban soil-rent value management condition; The third part is this article core research results' foundation to the urban soil-rent value monitor early warning's method and the process; The fourth part has conducted the empirical study take the Guiyang town center city as the example to the urban soil-rent value dynamic monitor early warning, and has carried on the elaboration to the future soil-rent value trend situation; The fifth part according to the Guiyang town center city land market's present situation and the early warning result, The sixth part is the conclusion part.
The article to the Guiyang town center city soil-rent value monitor early warning's empirical study result is:①At present Guiyang town center city soil-rent value level basic reasonable, adapts with its socio-economic development level②Thesoil-rent value level will continue to climb with steady steps, in the short-term will not have the big police sentiment to appear.
本文结合国内外城市地价动态监测体系现状,借鉴房地产市场监测预警理论与方法,在近几年来各位学者对土地市场预警研究的思路的基础上,对贵阳市中心城区土地价格市场监测及预警进行了一定的实践运用。文章共分为六个部分:其中绪论部分详细分析了研究的背景和意义,总结了国内外房地产监测预警理论与技术的研究动态;第二部分对城市地价管理状况进行了分析;第三部分对城市地价动态监测预警的方法与过程进行了探讨;第四部分以贵阳市中心城区为例对城市地价动态监测预警进行了实证研究,分析了贵阳市城市地价的变化原因及存在问题,并对未来地价走势情况进行了阐述;第五部分则根据贵阳市中心城区土地市场的现状及预警结果,对其土地市场建设和管理提出了相应的对策和调控想法;第六部分为结语部分。
文章对贵阳市中心城区地价监测预警的实证研究结果是:①目前贵阳市中心城区地价水平基本合理,与其社会经济发展水平相适应②地价水平将继续稳步攀升,短期内不会有大的警情出现。
Since the city land use system reform has deepened unceasingly in the 1980s, the use of the urban land from "free, unlimited time, does not have the flowing" to"paid, has the flowing by a set time" , it has carried on the collection state-owned land working cost gradually (tax), cities state-owned land right of use's selling with transfers, reforms and commercial housing development. Along with land paid use system reform unceasingly thorough, our country land market construction grew out of nothing, has made the considerable progress from the spot to the area, the land appears day by day in the urban construction and the socio-economic development function and the value comes out. The land supplied into the new time country macroeconomic regulation and control the important means that the soil-rent value has also become the land market operation important weight and the price judgment tool, therefore, established the urban soil-rent value dynamic monitor system to become the necessity, Guiyang completed the city land classification grade, the soil-rent value dynamic monitor system's establishment work, the soil-rent value dynamic monitor system's establishment in 2001, to grasp the urban land market price level, managed the urban land, protect land market ,which have provided the important basis.
This article unifies the domestic and foreign urban soil-rent value dynamic monitor system present situation, profits from the real estate market monitor early warning theory and the method, in the last few years the fellow scholars to the land market early warning research's mentality's foundation, has carried on certain practice utilization to the Guiyang town center city land price market monitor and the early warning. The article altogether divides into six parts: the introduction part multianalysed research's background and the significance, summaried the domestic and foreign real estate monitor early warning theory and the technical research tendency; The second part has carried on the analysis to the urban soil-rent value management condition; The third part is this article core research results' foundation to the urban soil-rent value monitor early warning's method and the process; The fourth part has conducted the empirical study take the Guiyang town center city as the example to the urban soil-rent value dynamic monitor early warning, and has carried on the elaboration to the future soil-rent value trend situation; The fifth part according to the Guiyang town center city land market's present situation and the early warning result, The sixth part is the conclusion part.
The article to the Guiyang town center city soil-rent value monitor early warning's empirical study result is:①At present Guiyang town center city soil-rent value level basic reasonable, adapts with its socio-economic development level②Thesoil-rent value level will continue to climb with steady steps, in the short-term will not have the big police sentiment to appear.
引文
[1]丁烈云.房地产周期波动与预警研究.上海:同济大学图书馆,2002.
[2]王蔚.土地价格的需求和供给分析.中国土地科学,1995,9(6)
[3]王耀中、侯俊军等.经济预警模型述评.湖南大学学报(社会科学版),2004,18(2).
[4]王淑英.滑动自回归模型在洪水预报中的应用.黑龙江水专学报,1998,(3):56-59.
[5]中国城市地价动态监测系统.http://www.landvalue.com.cn.
[6]冯昌中、陆跃进.地价杠杆在城市经营中的调控作用.经济地理,22(1).
[7]关文荣.城市地价调查与动态监测进展与展望.北京:中国大地出版社.2006.
[8]毕大川、刘树成.经济周期与预警系统.北京:经济科学出版社.1990.
[9]李社环、梁勤星.经济景气观测方法.上海:译文出版社.2003.
[10]刘玮娜、吴群等.城市土地市场地价预警研究.国土资源,2005,(31).
[11]刘思峰.灰色系统理论及其应用.北京:科学出版社.2005.
[12]关于国房景气指数[EB/OL].http://www.3000.gov.cn/index_2.htm.
[13]汤小俊.运用土地政策参与宏观调控发挥积极作用,房地产土地供应结构进一步优化.中国国土资源报:2005年10月1日
[14]吴中群.调控我国房地产开发投资的政策选择.财贸经济,2004,(7).
[15]陆凡.《城镇地价动态监测的方法研究》载《城市发展研究》2001(3).
[16]宋戈.地产泡沫及其警示.商业研究,2001,(4).
[17]邹晓云.我国的地价管理及其发展.http://www.landvalue.com.cn,2006-08-08.
[18]张建勋.以市场方式定价调控土地供应的探讨.北京:中国大地出版社.2006.
[19]张增峰.城市地价指数编制的理论与实践.北京:中国大地出版社.2006.
[20]周滔、吕萍.地价决定于地价调控.北京:中国大地出版社.2006.
[21]国土资源部.城市地价动态监测体系技术规范(国土资源大调查专用).1999.
[22]国土资源部.城镇地价动态监测技术规范.2004.
[23]TD/T 1009—2007,城市地价动态监测技术规范.
[24]国土资源部土地利用管理司、中国土地勘测规划院.城市地价动态监测理论与实践总 论.北京:地质出版社.2006.
[25]赵黎明、贾永飞等.房地产预警系统研究.天津大学学报(社会科学版),1999,1(4):277-280.
[26]高铁梅、董文泉.经济周期波动的分析与预测方法.吉林大学出版社.1998.
[27]顾海兵.实用经济预测方法.北京:中国人民大学出版社.1990.
[28]袁贤祯.房地产业监测预警系统构想.中国房地产,1998(4):16-19.
[29]贵阳市国土资源局.贵阳市中心城区基准地价更新工作报告.2007.
[30]贵阳市国土资源局.贵阳市中心城区基准地价更新技术报告.2007.
[31]唐众、吴群等.南京城市地价指数编制.中国土地科学,2002,16(1).
[32]龚科.土地储备制度运作探析.国土经济,2003(8).
[33]梁运斌.我国房地产业景气指标设置与预警预报系统建设的基本构想.北京房地产,1995(11):18-20.
[34]黄继鸿、雷战波、凌超.经济预警方法研究综述.系统工程,2003,(2).
[35]富锐、王继尧.哈尔滨城市地价动态预警系统的设计.北京:中国大地出版社.2006.
[36]傅十和.土地投机与地价泡沫.中国土地科学,1999,13(2).
[37]强真、朱道林、毕继业.城市基准地价合理性的判别方法.北京:中国大地出版社.2006.
[38]彭群来、张波.地价管理与土地储备的互动机制研究.北京:中国大地出版社.2006.
[39]搜房研究院.中国房地产指数系统:理论与实践.北京:中国财政经济出版社.2001.
[40]谢经荣等.地产泡沫与金融危机——国际经验及其借鉴.北京:经济管理出版社,2002,(1).
[41]Burkart O,Coudert V.Leading indicators of currency crises for emerging Countries.Emerging Markets Review,2002,(3):107-133.
[42]Nag.Ashot and Amit Mitra.Neural Networks and Early Warning Indicators of Currency Crisis.Reserve Bank of India Occasional Papers,1999,20(2):183-22.
[2]王蔚.土地价格的需求和供给分析.中国土地科学,1995,9(6)
[3]王耀中、侯俊军等.经济预警模型述评.湖南大学学报(社会科学版),2004,18(2).
[4]王淑英.滑动自回归模型在洪水预报中的应用.黑龙江水专学报,1998,(3):56-59.
[5]中国城市地价动态监测系统.http://www.landvalue.com.cn.
[6]冯昌中、陆跃进.地价杠杆在城市经营中的调控作用.经济地理,22(1).
[7]关文荣.城市地价调查与动态监测进展与展望.北京:中国大地出版社.2006.
[8]毕大川、刘树成.经济周期与预警系统.北京:经济科学出版社.1990.
[9]李社环、梁勤星.经济景气观测方法.上海:译文出版社.2003.
[10]刘玮娜、吴群等.城市土地市场地价预警研究.国土资源,2005,(31).
[11]刘思峰.灰色系统理论及其应用.北京:科学出版社.2005.
[12]关于国房景气指数[EB/OL].http://www.3000.gov.cn/index_2.htm.
[13]汤小俊.运用土地政策参与宏观调控发挥积极作用,房地产土地供应结构进一步优化.中国国土资源报:2005年10月1日
[14]吴中群.调控我国房地产开发投资的政策选择.财贸经济,2004,(7).
[15]陆凡.《城镇地价动态监测的方法研究》载《城市发展研究》2001(3).
[16]宋戈.地产泡沫及其警示.商业研究,2001,(4).
[17]邹晓云.我国的地价管理及其发展.http://www.landvalue.com.cn,2006-08-08.
[18]张建勋.以市场方式定价调控土地供应的探讨.北京:中国大地出版社.2006.
[19]张增峰.城市地价指数编制的理论与实践.北京:中国大地出版社.2006.
[20]周滔、吕萍.地价决定于地价调控.北京:中国大地出版社.2006.
[21]国土资源部.城市地价动态监测体系技术规范(国土资源大调查专用).1999.
[22]国土资源部.城镇地价动态监测技术规范.2004.
[23]TD/T 1009—2007,城市地价动态监测技术规范.
[24]国土资源部土地利用管理司、中国土地勘测规划院.城市地价动态监测理论与实践总 论.北京:地质出版社.2006.
[25]赵黎明、贾永飞等.房地产预警系统研究.天津大学学报(社会科学版),1999,1(4):277-280.
[26]高铁梅、董文泉.经济周期波动的分析与预测方法.吉林大学出版社.1998.
[27]顾海兵.实用经济预测方法.北京:中国人民大学出版社.1990.
[28]袁贤祯.房地产业监测预警系统构想.中国房地产,1998(4):16-19.
[29]贵阳市国土资源局.贵阳市中心城区基准地价更新工作报告.2007.
[30]贵阳市国土资源局.贵阳市中心城区基准地价更新技术报告.2007.
[31]唐众、吴群等.南京城市地价指数编制.中国土地科学,2002,16(1).
[32]龚科.土地储备制度运作探析.国土经济,2003(8).
[33]梁运斌.我国房地产业景气指标设置与预警预报系统建设的基本构想.北京房地产,1995(11):18-20.
[34]黄继鸿、雷战波、凌超.经济预警方法研究综述.系统工程,2003,(2).
[35]富锐、王继尧.哈尔滨城市地价动态预警系统的设计.北京:中国大地出版社.2006.
[36]傅十和.土地投机与地价泡沫.中国土地科学,1999,13(2).
[37]强真、朱道林、毕继业.城市基准地价合理性的判别方法.北京:中国大地出版社.2006.
[38]彭群来、张波.地价管理与土地储备的互动机制研究.北京:中国大地出版社.2006.
[39]搜房研究院.中国房地产指数系统:理论与实践.北京:中国财政经济出版社.2001.
[40]谢经荣等.地产泡沫与金融危机——国际经验及其借鉴.北京:经济管理出版社,2002,(1).
[41]Burkart O,Coudert V.Leading indicators of currency crises for emerging Countries.Emerging Markets Review,2002,(3):107-133.
[42]Nag.Ashot and Amit Mitra.Neural Networks and Early Warning Indicators of Currency Crisis.Reserve Bank of India Occasional Papers,1999,20(2):183-22.