物流业与经济增长关系的实证研究
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摘要
物流作为一种先进的组织方式和管理技术,被广泛认为是企业在降低物资消耗、提高劳动生产率以外的重要利润源泉。随着社会科技的进步和网络消费的兴起及迅猛发展,作为传统产业的物流业焕发出了勃勃生机,物流业在国民经济中的作用也变得越来越重要,逐渐成为国民经济的重要产业和新的经济增长点。加快物流业的发展,对于优化资源配置、提高经济运行质量、推进国家经济增长方式的转变,具有十分重要的现实意义。
本文首先提出了研究的背景及意义,回顾了物流与国民经济增长的相关理论,在对研究文献进行了综述和总结的基础上,提出了自己的研究内容和方法。文中第三部分从我国的物流业发展现状出发,介绍了我国物流统计核算制度的建立和发展及一些我们常用的物流统计指标,并对物流业发展与经济增长的现状进行了初步的统计分析。
第四部分从物流发展的供给和需求方面对经济增长的影响进行实证分析。变量选取主要用物流业固定资产投资来描述物流供给能力；用社会物流总额作为反映物流需求的指标；用国内生产总值作为衡量经济增长速度的指标,建立向量自回归(VAR)模型、利用脉冲响应函数和预测方差分解从动态的角度来分析物流业供给和需求发展与经济增长的关系。实证分析结论是经济增长与物流业固定资产投资之间有显著地相互促进作用,而且作用期比较持久。经济增长与社会物流总额之间,经济增长能够显著地促进社会物流总额,但社会物流总额对经济增长的影响是暂时的,不会持久。从物流产业供给能力上看,物流基础设施逐渐完善,物流供给能力得到一定程度的提高,从而为经济增长的发展提供了前提保障,拉动经济增长。而经济的快速增长反过来更能提高物流业固定资产投资额,促进物流基础设施的完善。从物流需求发展的角度看,经济总量的增加会带来巨大的物流需求,产生发展现代物流的迫切要求,同时经济的快速增长为推动现代物流的发展打好了良好的基础。
实证分析物流业增加值与经济增长的相互关系,结果表明物流业增加值对经济增长的影响较小。但经济增长对物流业增加值的影响较大,经济增长对物流业有很大的促进作用。这与物流业增加值与经济增长的格兰杰因果关系检验结果是一致的。因此,我们应该着力提高物流业增加值占国内生产总值的比重,使物流业发展与经济增长呈现出相互协调、健康发展的趋势。在文章最后是本文的结论及对我国物流产业与经济增长关系的未来研究方向的展望。
一个国家的物流业发展水平,反映了这个国家的综合国力和企业的竞争能力。随着我国物流业的不断发展壮大,我国经济增长越来越依赖于物流的发展。但与发达国家和其它地区相比,我国物流业仍然存在着许多问题。因此我们要认清我国物流业的现状与不足,明确物流业发展的目标和趋势,引导物流业健康、高效发展,打造强大的物流产业,进而有力推动国民经济持续高速增长。
As an advanced forms of organization and management technology, Logistics is widely considered to be the important source of profits beside lowering the cost of materials and improving labor productivity in the enterprises. Along with the progress of technology and the rapid development of the network spending, logistics, as a traditional industry, glow of vitality. the logistics industry's role in the national economy has become increasingly important, and gradually become a major industry in the national economy and the new economic growth. For optimizing the allocation of resources, and improving the quality of economic operation and promoting the country's economic growth pattern, Accelerating the development of the logistics industry has very important significance.
This paper first undertook a review of related theories on the logistics and economic growth. on the basis of analyzing and summing up the Previous studies of literature, we belive that modern logistics and economic growth make an effect on each other.Modern logistics stimulate economic growth and economic growth contribute to the development of logistics.In the present situation of the Chinese logistics industry development, The third part of the paper introduces the establishment and development of our country logistics statistics accounting system and some main logistics statistical indicators.
The next part of the paper make an empirical analysis on the impact between the supply and demand of the logistics development and the economic growth.We use fixed asset investment in logistics industry for describing the logistics capacity and select the total social logistics as the logistics demand index and select GDP as a measure of economic growth rate indicators.After establishing a vector auto-regressive (VAR) model, using the impulse response function and variance decomposition,the paper analyze the relationship among the logistics supply and demand and the economic growth in a dynamic perspective.The conclusion is that economic growth and fixed asset investment in logistics industry have a significant role to promote each other and the role period is much long and durable.Between the economic growth and total social logistics, economic growth can significantly promote the total social logistics, but the total social logistics impact on economic growth is temporary. From the point of the Logistics industry supply capacity, the gradual improvement of logistics infrastructure, logistics supply capacity has been improved to a certain extent, so as to provide a prerequisite for security and to stimulate economic growth. The rapid economic growth in turn will enhance the investment in fixed assets in the logistics industry and promote the improvement of logistics infrastructure. From the perspective of the development of logistics demand, the economy will bring a huge increase in the total logistics needs, resulting in an urgent requirement for the development of modern logistics, while rapid economic growth will promote the development of modern logistics.
The fifth part selects the added value of logistics industry as a indicator measuring logistics industry market size and makes an analysis in the interaction between added value of logistics industry and economic growth. The results show that the added value of logistics industry has less impact on the economic growth. But the economic growth has a big effect on added value of logistics industry. These are consistent to the Grainger causality test of the added value of logistics industry and economic growth. Therefore, we should focus on increase the proportion that the added value of logistics industry occupies gross domestic product. The development of the logistics industry and economic growth presents the mutual, harmonious and joint development trend. At the end of the paper the author make a conclusion and point out some on research directions about the relationship between China's logistics industry and economic growth in the future.
A country's level of development of the logistics industry, reflects the country's comprehensive national strength and competitiveness of enterprises. As China's logistics industry continuing to grow, China's economic growth is increasingly dependent on logistics. But compared with developed countries and other regions, China's logistics industry still exists many problems. Therefore, we must recognize the status and the lack of China's logistics industry and guide logistics industry healthy, efficient development to improve the economic growth.
本文首先提出了研究的背景及意义,回顾了物流与国民经济增长的相关理论,在对研究文献进行了综述和总结的基础上,提出了自己的研究内容和方法。文中第三部分从我国的物流业发展现状出发,介绍了我国物流统计核算制度的建立和发展及一些我们常用的物流统计指标,并对物流业发展与经济增长的现状进行了初步的统计分析。
第四部分从物流发展的供给和需求方面对经济增长的影响进行实证分析。变量选取主要用物流业固定资产投资来描述物流供给能力；用社会物流总额作为反映物流需求的指标；用国内生产总值作为衡量经济增长速度的指标,建立向量自回归(VAR)模型、利用脉冲响应函数和预测方差分解从动态的角度来分析物流业供给和需求发展与经济增长的关系。实证分析结论是经济增长与物流业固定资产投资之间有显著地相互促进作用,而且作用期比较持久。经济增长与社会物流总额之间,经济增长能够显著地促进社会物流总额,但社会物流总额对经济增长的影响是暂时的,不会持久。从物流产业供给能力上看,物流基础设施逐渐完善,物流供给能力得到一定程度的提高,从而为经济增长的发展提供了前提保障,拉动经济增长。而经济的快速增长反过来更能提高物流业固定资产投资额,促进物流基础设施的完善。从物流需求发展的角度看,经济总量的增加会带来巨大的物流需求,产生发展现代物流的迫切要求,同时经济的快速增长为推动现代物流的发展打好了良好的基础。
实证分析物流业增加值与经济增长的相互关系,结果表明物流业增加值对经济增长的影响较小。但经济增长对物流业增加值的影响较大,经济增长对物流业有很大的促进作用。这与物流业增加值与经济增长的格兰杰因果关系检验结果是一致的。因此,我们应该着力提高物流业增加值占国内生产总值的比重,使物流业发展与经济增长呈现出相互协调、健康发展的趋势。在文章最后是本文的结论及对我国物流产业与经济增长关系的未来研究方向的展望。
一个国家的物流业发展水平,反映了这个国家的综合国力和企业的竞争能力。随着我国物流业的不断发展壮大,我国经济增长越来越依赖于物流的发展。但与发达国家和其它地区相比,我国物流业仍然存在着许多问题。因此我们要认清我国物流业的现状与不足,明确物流业发展的目标和趋势,引导物流业健康、高效发展,打造强大的物流产业,进而有力推动国民经济持续高速增长。
As an advanced forms of organization and management technology, Logistics is widely considered to be the important source of profits beside lowering the cost of materials and improving labor productivity in the enterprises. Along with the progress of technology and the rapid development of the network spending, logistics, as a traditional industry, glow of vitality. the logistics industry's role in the national economy has become increasingly important, and gradually become a major industry in the national economy and the new economic growth. For optimizing the allocation of resources, and improving the quality of economic operation and promoting the country's economic growth pattern, Accelerating the development of the logistics industry has very important significance.
This paper first undertook a review of related theories on the logistics and economic growth. on the basis of analyzing and summing up the Previous studies of literature, we belive that modern logistics and economic growth make an effect on each other.Modern logistics stimulate economic growth and economic growth contribute to the development of logistics.In the present situation of the Chinese logistics industry development, The third part of the paper introduces the establishment and development of our country logistics statistics accounting system and some main logistics statistical indicators.
The next part of the paper make an empirical analysis on the impact between the supply and demand of the logistics development and the economic growth.We use fixed asset investment in logistics industry for describing the logistics capacity and select the total social logistics as the logistics demand index and select GDP as a measure of economic growth rate indicators.After establishing a vector auto-regressive (VAR) model, using the impulse response function and variance decomposition,the paper analyze the relationship among the logistics supply and demand and the economic growth in a dynamic perspective.The conclusion is that economic growth and fixed asset investment in logistics industry have a significant role to promote each other and the role period is much long and durable.Between the economic growth and total social logistics, economic growth can significantly promote the total social logistics, but the total social logistics impact on economic growth is temporary. From the point of the Logistics industry supply capacity, the gradual improvement of logistics infrastructure, logistics supply capacity has been improved to a certain extent, so as to provide a prerequisite for security and to stimulate economic growth. The rapid economic growth in turn will enhance the investment in fixed assets in the logistics industry and promote the improvement of logistics infrastructure. From the perspective of the development of logistics demand, the economy will bring a huge increase in the total logistics needs, resulting in an urgent requirement for the development of modern logistics, while rapid economic growth will promote the development of modern logistics.
The fifth part selects the added value of logistics industry as a indicator measuring logistics industry market size and makes an analysis in the interaction between added value of logistics industry and economic growth. The results show that the added value of logistics industry has less impact on the economic growth. But the economic growth has a big effect on added value of logistics industry. These are consistent to the Grainger causality test of the added value of logistics industry and economic growth. Therefore, we should focus on increase the proportion that the added value of logistics industry occupies gross domestic product. The development of the logistics industry and economic growth presents the mutual, harmonious and joint development trend. At the end of the paper the author make a conclusion and point out some on research directions about the relationship between China's logistics industry and economic growth in the future.
A country's level of development of the logistics industry, reflects the country's comprehensive national strength and competitiveness of enterprises. As China's logistics industry continuing to grow, China's economic growth is increasingly dependent on logistics. But compared with developed countries and other regions, China's logistics industry still exists many problems. Therefore, we must recognize the status and the lack of China's logistics industry and guide logistics industry healthy, efficient development to improve the economic growth.
引文
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[2]曹瑛.现代物流与区域经济发展研究[D].四川大学,2007.
[3]邓蕾,王旭.基于货运结构的区域物流发展灰色关联分析[J].科技管理研究,2007(01)
[4]丁俊发.当前我国物流理论研究的十大热点[J].中国物流与采购,2003(2).
[5]冯云.物流业与中国经济发展关系的实证分析[J].统计与决策,2008,(5)
[6]高铁梅.计量经济分析方法与建模：Eviews应用及实例[M].北京：清华大学出版社,2008.
[7]高阔、甘筱青、李仁良.现代物流与经济增长的VAR模型分析[J].中大管理研究,2007,2(3)
[8]国家发改委经济运行司、中国物流与采购联合会、国家统计局贸易外经司.社会物流统计手册[M].北京：中国物资出版社,2007.
[9]何黎明.中国物流发展报告(2009)[M].北京：中国物资出版社,2009.
[10]黄福华、谷汉文.我国物流产业发展的经济学分析[J].财贸经济,2005,(2)
[11]黄海,徐涛.物流产业与经济发展的关系分析[J].物流科技,2005(05).
[12]黄福华、谷汉文.物流发展关系研究[M].北京：中国经济出版社,2009.
[13]刘南,李燕.现代物流与经济增长的关系研究—基于浙江省的实证分析明.管理工程学报,2007(1)151一153.
[14]李文顺、刘伟、周宏.1952-2002年中国物流增量和GDP增量的协整分析[J].中国软科学,2004,(12)
[15]李力、杨柳.物流产业与国民经济之间关系的实证研究[J].武汉理工大学学报(信息与管理工程版),2006,28(6)
[16]李莉.中国物流产业统计核算与物流产业国际竞争力评价研究[M].天津：天津社会科学院出版社,2006.
[17]李冠霖.我国物流业的投入产出分析.[J]中国流通经济,2001(6).
[18]李子奈.计量经济学[M].北京：高等教育出版社,2000：46-60
[19]苗青,白玲,曲鹏飞.符合区域经济增长模式的现代物流经济的研究[J].理论探讨,2004(03).
[20]潘瑞玉.物流业对区域经济增长的实证分析[J].经济论坛,2006,(5)
[21]潘省初.计量经济学中级教程[M].北京：清华大学出版社,2009.
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