环境规制、能源生产力与中国经济增长
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摘要
人口、资源、环境和发展之间的矛盾是摆在人类面前必须要面对的问题。在多因素约束条件下的经济社会可持续发展，历来是学者们关注的焦点，这种关注也诞生出了新的学科方向，比如能源经济学、环境经济学、发展经济学等，可持续发展的理论体系在不断的丰富和发展。长期以来，发展是第一要务的经济理念，使中国也不得不面对能源短缺、环境污染带来的问题，自上个世纪90年代，能源开发与合理利用、环境保护、循环经济等相关研究开始不断涌现，探索如何优化能源消费方式，提高能源生产力；如何合理地环境规制，减少污染排放；如何调整产业结构，促进经济的持续均衡增长成为研究的重点，这也是本研究关注的方向。
能源与环境是经济增长的双端约束，环境规制对能源消费与经济增长、能源控制对经济增长的双倒逼机制会促进能源生产力提高和经济发展方式转变。虽然我国出台了能源总量控制的相关政策，但本研究认为提高能源生产力——即全要素能源效率才是能源利用的关键。能源的使用不可避免地带来污染，必然给社会总效用带来影响，利用环境规制的倒逼机制来提高能效，其途径必然是新技术的应用和产业结构的升级，这也促进了我国经济发展方式的转变。那么，中国环境管理体系下的绩效如何？其对能源生产力的影响机制又是怎样的？环境规制下的综合能源效率与我国经济增长是否存在耦合关系？这种关系又是如何影响区域经济发展的呢？本研究带着以上问题进行探索。
第一章，导论。能源稀缺和环境污染是可持续发展必须要解决的两大难题，探索环境规制对能源生产力、能源消费对经济增长的影响机制，有助于建立合理的能源利用模式，采取适当的环境规制工具方法，倒逼我国以技术升级转变经济发展方式。本章系统交代了研究的背景、问题、目的、意义，构思了研究的思路与主要内容，并对研究方法和创新点进行归纳。
第二章，理论借鉴与文献综述。本章对环境规制和能源生产力的基本内涵进行阐述，概括了能源经济、环境经济、经济增长、规制经济学等相关理论基础，对涉及研究主题的相关文献进行了分析，最后构建环境—能源—经济的基本理论框架和模型。
第三章，中国环境规制体系及规制绩效评价。本章基于制度演进视角探讨中国环境规制体制的变迁，从环境规制效率的视角反映环境规制绩效的变动趋势。我国环境规制体制经历了“起步→初创→调整→确立→发展→完善”的阶段，从机构设置、制度框架、规制工具三个方面解析我国目前的环境规制体系；在设计我国环境规制绩效评价体系基础之上，运用非径向超效率DEA模型计算了我国的环境规制效率，研究发现我国省际环境规制绩效存在较大的差异，区域环境规制效率整体上呈现出收敛趋势。
第四章，环境规制对能源生产力作用机制研究。本章基于方向性距离函数方法测算了两种情形下我国全要素能源效率指数，利用受限被解释变量Tobit模型计算了环境规制对全要素能源效率的影响，并分东中西部检验了环境规制对全要素能源效率的不同影响。全要素能源效率测算结果表明环境要素的引入会带来经济效率损失，各省份的全要素能源效率指数存在差异。环境规制对全要素能源效率影响的实证检验表明环境规制各变量对全要素能源效率影响表现出不同的特征。为更加明晰反映各指标对能源效率的影响，本研究将环境规制各指标分为四类，处在不同象限的指标对改善全要素能源效率存在显著差异。
第五章，能源生产力的变动与经济增长耦合关系检验。本章基于脱钩复钩理论验证了我国能源消费与经济增长的耦合性，研究发现在不同时期，能源消费总量、能源效率与经济增长耦合性有所变化。基于面板协整和单位根检验方法探讨能源效率与经济增长的长短期关系，研究表明能源消费与经济增长之间可能存在长期稳定的均衡关系，能源消费总量与能源消费效率无明显的相关性，但是GDP的增长却能促进能源效率的提高。而短期内，能源效率与GDP在短期内正相关，与能源消费总量负相关。
第六章，能源生产力与区域经济协调发展实证研究。本章通过投入导向的DEA方法测算了我国整体和区域全要素能源效率，并通过运用工具变量法、差分GMM和系统GMM实证分析了全要素能源效率等对我国经济增长收敛的影响，运用纠偏的虚拟变量最小二乘法计算了能源效率等对地区经济增长俱乐部收敛影响的差异性。研究发现能源效率较低的省份大多位于西部地区，与各区域经济实力的梯次分布一致。对能源效率与中国经济增长收敛的实证分析表明，我国整体上存在条件收敛，东、中、西三大区域存在俱乐部收敛，中部收敛速度最快，能源效率对东部地区经济增长的促进作用最为显著。
第七章，中国环境-能源-经济协调可持续发展制度设计。通过本研究的实证结论，归纳我国节能减排的政策制度设计，明确环境—能源—经济可持续发展的指导思想、基本原则，指出我国3E可持续发展战略必须走绿色发展、集约发展、循环发展、低碳发展、生态发展的可持续路径，基于此分别设计了我国能源政策、环境政策以及经济政策。
第八章，研究结论与展望。总结研究的主要结论，指出研究中的不足与困惑，展望研究的未来发展方向。
本研究遵循“提出问题→理论考察→实证检验→政策设计”的研究思路，围绕“环境规制”、“能源生产力”和“经济增长”三大主题，按照“全面、协调与可持续发展”的价值取向，构建“环境—能源—经济”的理论框架，重点解析环境对经济与能源、能源对经济增长的两种倒逼机制。以中国为样本，从环境规制绩效、环境对能源、环境对经济、能源对经济几个层面展开实证检验，多视角考察约束机制对经济增长的影响。紧密结合国家重大发展战略，回归中国经济发展实践，基于现实考察和实践佐证，探寻促进“环境—能源—经济”协调可持续发展的政策路径。
The contradiction among population, resources, environment and development isthe problem we people have to face. The sustainable development of ecnomy andsociety under many constraints always draw schalars’ attention, which give birth to newscientific research orientation, such as energy economics, envirlnment economics anddevelopment economics, etc. which are enriching the throreticaly theory ofdevelopment development. For a long time, the conception of prioritizing thedevelopment, make China to face the problems brought about by energy deficiency,environmental pollution. Since90s of last century, the relevant research of energyexploration and rational utilization, environmental protection, recycling economy, etc.are constantly emerging. Exploring the way to optimize energy consumption, increaseenergy productivity, regulate environment, decrease pollution emission, and reorganizeindustrial structure inorder to boost sustainable development are the key points of thoserelevant researches, which also are keypoints of this thesis.
Energy and environment are the double constraint to economic development,environment. The reversed mechanism of the influence of environment regulation overenergy consumption and economy development, the influence of energy control overeconomic development, will promote the increase of energy productivity and thetransformation of economy development model. Although the relevant policies aboutcontrol of overall volume of energy have been introduced, this research regards theincrease of energy productivy as the key to energy utilization. The utilization of energywill inevitably bring about pollution, and bad influence on social overall utility. Toincrease energy effectiveness with the help of reversed mechanism of environmentalregulation, we must take the advantage of new technology application and industrialstructure upgrading. How about the performance under our environmental regulationsystem? How does it affect energy productivity? Does the coupling relationship betweencomprehensive energy effectiveness and economy development? How does thisrelationship affect regional economy development? Whith these questions, this thesisbegin to explore.
Chapter1, introduction. Energy deficiency and environmental pollution are the twodifficult problems need to be solved for sustainable development, exploring themechanism of how environment regulation affects energy productivity and ow energy consumption affect economy development, will help to build the model for rationalenergy utilization. These chapters systematically present the background, problems,goals, meaning, the thought of this research and the main content, and summarize themethodology and innovation.
Chapter2, theories reference and literature review. This chapter explainsenvironment regulation and energy productivity, and summarizes relevant theoreticalbase about energy economy, environment economy, and economic growth, regulatoryand so on. Furthermore, literature relevant to this subject has been analyzed. Then, thebasic theoretical framework and model of environment-energy-economy have beenbuilt.
Chapter3. Chinese environment regulation system and the assessment ofregulatory performance. This chapter presents and discusses the evolution of Chineseenvironment regulation system from the perspective of institution evolution, andpresents the change trend of environmental regulation assessment from the perspectiveof environmental regulation efficiency. Our environmental regulation systemexperiences many periods: starting period, newly established period, adjustment period,establishment period, developing period, perfection period in sequence, then explain thepresent environmental regulation system from three aspects: institution setting,institution structure and regulatory tool. Based on the design of Chinese environmentalregulation performance assessment system, this these use the radial super efficiencyDEA model to calculate the efficiency of Chinese environmental regulation, the resultreveals there are big differences in efficiency among different province, regionalenvironmental regulation efficiency take on the appearance of convergent tendency.
Chapter4. The research on how environment regulation affects energy productivity.Based on directional distance function, this chapter calculates Chinese total factorenergy efficiency under two condition, then calculate the influence of invironmentregulation on total factor energy efficiency, especially different influence in east, middleand west area in China by using limited dependent variable Tobit model. The resultsshow that by introducing environmental factor, economic efficiency loss has beenbrought about, and there are differences among total factor energy efficiency. Theempirical test of how environment regulation affects total factor energy efficiencyshows that the influences of different variables of environment regulation on total factorenergy efficiency reveals different character. To reflect the influences of each index onenergy efficiency, this research divides the indexes of environment regulation into4 catologues, indexes in different quadrant have significant differences in the aspect ofimproving total factor energy efficiency.
Chapter5. the coupling relationship test on variation of energy productivity andeconomic growth. Based on the theory of decoupling and coupling, this chapter verifysthe coupling relationship between energy consumption and economic growth, theresearch finds that, in different periods, the coupling relationship among the totalamount of energy consumption and energy efficiency and economic growth varys alittle. Based on panel cointegration and unit root test, this research discusses the longand short period relationship between energy consumption and economic growth,research indicates there might be a sustainable and stable equilibrium relationshipbetween energy consumption and economic growth, and there might be not obviouscorrelation between total amount of energy consumption and energy consumptionefficiency, while the increase of GDP can boost energy efficiency. In short period, thereis positive coorelation between energy consumption and GDP, while negativecorrelation between energy efficiency and total amount of energy consumption.
Chapter6. empirical research of the coordinated development of energyproductivity and regional economy. Through input oriented DEA model, this chaptercalculates Chinese total factor energy efficiency(TFEE) as a whole and regional TFEE,and through instrumental variables method, difference GMM and system GMM, thischapter empirically analyzes the influence of TFEE on Chinese economic growthconvergence, with the method of rectifying deviations and LSDV, the differences amongthe Club Convergence influences of energy efficiency and other factors on economicgrowth. The results find that most provinces with low energy efficiency lie in the westarea, in line with echelon distribution。 The empirical analysis of convergencerelationship between energy efficiency and Chinese economic growth indicates thatconditional convergence exists in China as a whole, and Club convergence exists in theeast, middle and west area, and the middle area has the fastest convergence speed,moreover, the effect of energy efficiency to promote economic growth in east area ismost significant.
Chaper7, the coordinated and sustainable developing institutional design ofChinese environment-energy-economy. Based on the empirical results, the policies andsystem design for energy saving and emission reducing have been summarized,crystallizing guiding thought, basic principles of sustainable development ofenvironment–energy-economy, then Chinese energy exploring and utilizing policy, energy saving and emission reducing policy, and advices on sustainable economicgrowth have been designed respectively.
This research follows the thought of “question raising, theoretically requirement,empirical test, policy design, circling three theme of environment regulation, energyproductivity and economic growth, according to the vslue orientation of comprehensive,coordinated and sustainable development, constructing theory framework of energy,environment and economy, two reversed mechanisms of how environment boosteconomy and energy, how energy boosts economic growth. This research takes China assample, carrys out empirical research from three levels of environment regulationperformance, the influence of environment on energy, the influence of environment oneconomy, and the influenceof energy on economy, how constrained mechanism affectseconomic growth from many perspectives. Combining this research with significantnational development strategy, based on Chinese economic development practice,reality research and reality prove, exploring political path to boost coordinated andsustainable development of environment, energy and economy.
能源与环境是经济增长的双端约束，环境规制对能源消费与经济增长、能源控制对经济增长的双倒逼机制会促进能源生产力提高和经济发展方式转变。虽然我国出台了能源总量控制的相关政策，但本研究认为提高能源生产力——即全要素能源效率才是能源利用的关键。能源的使用不可避免地带来污染，必然给社会总效用带来影响，利用环境规制的倒逼机制来提高能效，其途径必然是新技术的应用和产业结构的升级，这也促进了我国经济发展方式的转变。那么，中国环境管理体系下的绩效如何？其对能源生产力的影响机制又是怎样的？环境规制下的综合能源效率与我国经济增长是否存在耦合关系？这种关系又是如何影响区域经济发展的呢？本研究带着以上问题进行探索。
第一章，导论。能源稀缺和环境污染是可持续发展必须要解决的两大难题，探索环境规制对能源生产力、能源消费对经济增长的影响机制，有助于建立合理的能源利用模式，采取适当的环境规制工具方法，倒逼我国以技术升级转变经济发展方式。本章系统交代了研究的背景、问题、目的、意义，构思了研究的思路与主要内容，并对研究方法和创新点进行归纳。
第二章，理论借鉴与文献综述。本章对环境规制和能源生产力的基本内涵进行阐述，概括了能源经济、环境经济、经济增长、规制经济学等相关理论基础，对涉及研究主题的相关文献进行了分析，最后构建环境—能源—经济的基本理论框架和模型。
第三章，中国环境规制体系及规制绩效评价。本章基于制度演进视角探讨中国环境规制体制的变迁，从环境规制效率的视角反映环境规制绩效的变动趋势。我国环境规制体制经历了“起步→初创→调整→确立→发展→完善”的阶段，从机构设置、制度框架、规制工具三个方面解析我国目前的环境规制体系；在设计我国环境规制绩效评价体系基础之上，运用非径向超效率DEA模型计算了我国的环境规制效率，研究发现我国省际环境规制绩效存在较大的差异，区域环境规制效率整体上呈现出收敛趋势。
第四章，环境规制对能源生产力作用机制研究。本章基于方向性距离函数方法测算了两种情形下我国全要素能源效率指数，利用受限被解释变量Tobit模型计算了环境规制对全要素能源效率的影响，并分东中西部检验了环境规制对全要素能源效率的不同影响。全要素能源效率测算结果表明环境要素的引入会带来经济效率损失，各省份的全要素能源效率指数存在差异。环境规制对全要素能源效率影响的实证检验表明环境规制各变量对全要素能源效率影响表现出不同的特征。为更加明晰反映各指标对能源效率的影响，本研究将环境规制各指标分为四类，处在不同象限的指标对改善全要素能源效率存在显著差异。
第五章，能源生产力的变动与经济增长耦合关系检验。本章基于脱钩复钩理论验证了我国能源消费与经济增长的耦合性，研究发现在不同时期，能源消费总量、能源效率与经济增长耦合性有所变化。基于面板协整和单位根检验方法探讨能源效率与经济增长的长短期关系，研究表明能源消费与经济增长之间可能存在长期稳定的均衡关系，能源消费总量与能源消费效率无明显的相关性，但是GDP的增长却能促进能源效率的提高。而短期内，能源效率与GDP在短期内正相关，与能源消费总量负相关。
第六章，能源生产力与区域经济协调发展实证研究。本章通过投入导向的DEA方法测算了我国整体和区域全要素能源效率，并通过运用工具变量法、差分GMM和系统GMM实证分析了全要素能源效率等对我国经济增长收敛的影响，运用纠偏的虚拟变量最小二乘法计算了能源效率等对地区经济增长俱乐部收敛影响的差异性。研究发现能源效率较低的省份大多位于西部地区，与各区域经济实力的梯次分布一致。对能源效率与中国经济增长收敛的实证分析表明，我国整体上存在条件收敛，东、中、西三大区域存在俱乐部收敛，中部收敛速度最快，能源效率对东部地区经济增长的促进作用最为显著。
第七章，中国环境-能源-经济协调可持续发展制度设计。通过本研究的实证结论，归纳我国节能减排的政策制度设计，明确环境—能源—经济可持续发展的指导思想、基本原则，指出我国3E可持续发展战略必须走绿色发展、集约发展、循环发展、低碳发展、生态发展的可持续路径，基于此分别设计了我国能源政策、环境政策以及经济政策。
第八章，研究结论与展望。总结研究的主要结论，指出研究中的不足与困惑，展望研究的未来发展方向。
本研究遵循“提出问题→理论考察→实证检验→政策设计”的研究思路，围绕“环境规制”、“能源生产力”和“经济增长”三大主题，按照“全面、协调与可持续发展”的价值取向，构建“环境—能源—经济”的理论框架，重点解析环境对经济与能源、能源对经济增长的两种倒逼机制。以中国为样本，从环境规制绩效、环境对能源、环境对经济、能源对经济几个层面展开实证检验，多视角考察约束机制对经济增长的影响。紧密结合国家重大发展战略，回归中国经济发展实践，基于现实考察和实践佐证，探寻促进“环境—能源—经济”协调可持续发展的政策路径。
The contradiction among population, resources, environment and development isthe problem we people have to face. The sustainable development of ecnomy andsociety under many constraints always draw schalars’ attention, which give birth to newscientific research orientation, such as energy economics, envirlnment economics anddevelopment economics, etc. which are enriching the throreticaly theory ofdevelopment development. For a long time, the conception of prioritizing thedevelopment, make China to face the problems brought about by energy deficiency,environmental pollution. Since90s of last century, the relevant research of energyexploration and rational utilization, environmental protection, recycling economy, etc.are constantly emerging. Exploring the way to optimize energy consumption, increaseenergy productivity, regulate environment, decrease pollution emission, and reorganizeindustrial structure inorder to boost sustainable development are the key points of thoserelevant researches, which also are keypoints of this thesis.
Energy and environment are the double constraint to economic development,environment. The reversed mechanism of the influence of environment regulation overenergy consumption and economy development, the influence of energy control overeconomic development, will promote the increase of energy productivity and thetransformation of economy development model. Although the relevant policies aboutcontrol of overall volume of energy have been introduced, this research regards theincrease of energy productivy as the key to energy utilization. The utilization of energywill inevitably bring about pollution, and bad influence on social overall utility. Toincrease energy effectiveness with the help of reversed mechanism of environmentalregulation, we must take the advantage of new technology application and industrialstructure upgrading. How about the performance under our environmental regulationsystem? How does it affect energy productivity? Does the coupling relationship betweencomprehensive energy effectiveness and economy development? How does thisrelationship affect regional economy development? Whith these questions, this thesisbegin to explore.
Chapter1, introduction. Energy deficiency and environmental pollution are the twodifficult problems need to be solved for sustainable development, exploring themechanism of how environment regulation affects energy productivity and ow energy consumption affect economy development, will help to build the model for rationalenergy utilization. These chapters systematically present the background, problems,goals, meaning, the thought of this research and the main content, and summarize themethodology and innovation.
Chapter2, theories reference and literature review. This chapter explainsenvironment regulation and energy productivity, and summarizes relevant theoreticalbase about energy economy, environment economy, and economic growth, regulatoryand so on. Furthermore, literature relevant to this subject has been analyzed. Then, thebasic theoretical framework and model of environment-energy-economy have beenbuilt.
Chapter3. Chinese environment regulation system and the assessment ofregulatory performance. This chapter presents and discusses the evolution of Chineseenvironment regulation system from the perspective of institution evolution, andpresents the change trend of environmental regulation assessment from the perspectiveof environmental regulation efficiency. Our environmental regulation systemexperiences many periods: starting period, newly established period, adjustment period,establishment period, developing period, perfection period in sequence, then explain thepresent environmental regulation system from three aspects: institution setting,institution structure and regulatory tool. Based on the design of Chinese environmentalregulation performance assessment system, this these use the radial super efficiencyDEA model to calculate the efficiency of Chinese environmental regulation, the resultreveals there are big differences in efficiency among different province, regionalenvironmental regulation efficiency take on the appearance of convergent tendency.
Chapter4. The research on how environment regulation affects energy productivity.Based on directional distance function, this chapter calculates Chinese total factorenergy efficiency under two condition, then calculate the influence of invironmentregulation on total factor energy efficiency, especially different influence in east, middleand west area in China by using limited dependent variable Tobit model. The resultsshow that by introducing environmental factor, economic efficiency loss has beenbrought about, and there are differences among total factor energy efficiency. Theempirical test of how environment regulation affects total factor energy efficiencyshows that the influences of different variables of environment regulation on total factorenergy efficiency reveals different character. To reflect the influences of each index onenergy efficiency, this research divides the indexes of environment regulation into4 catologues, indexes in different quadrant have significant differences in the aspect ofimproving total factor energy efficiency.
Chapter5. the coupling relationship test on variation of energy productivity andeconomic growth. Based on the theory of decoupling and coupling, this chapter verifysthe coupling relationship between energy consumption and economic growth, theresearch finds that, in different periods, the coupling relationship among the totalamount of energy consumption and energy efficiency and economic growth varys alittle. Based on panel cointegration and unit root test, this research discusses the longand short period relationship between energy consumption and economic growth,research indicates there might be a sustainable and stable equilibrium relationshipbetween energy consumption and economic growth, and there might be not obviouscorrelation between total amount of energy consumption and energy consumptionefficiency, while the increase of GDP can boost energy efficiency. In short period, thereis positive coorelation between energy consumption and GDP, while negativecorrelation between energy efficiency and total amount of energy consumption.
Chapter6. empirical research of the coordinated development of energyproductivity and regional economy. Through input oriented DEA model, this chaptercalculates Chinese total factor energy efficiency(TFEE) as a whole and regional TFEE,and through instrumental variables method, difference GMM and system GMM, thischapter empirically analyzes the influence of TFEE on Chinese economic growthconvergence, with the method of rectifying deviations and LSDV, the differences amongthe Club Convergence influences of energy efficiency and other factors on economicgrowth. The results find that most provinces with low energy efficiency lie in the westarea, in line with echelon distribution。 The empirical analysis of convergencerelationship between energy efficiency and Chinese economic growth indicates thatconditional convergence exists in China as a whole, and Club convergence exists in theeast, middle and west area, and the middle area has the fastest convergence speed,moreover, the effect of energy efficiency to promote economic growth in east area ismost significant.
Chaper7, the coordinated and sustainable developing institutional design ofChinese environment-energy-economy. Based on the empirical results, the policies andsystem design for energy saving and emission reducing have been summarized,crystallizing guiding thought, basic principles of sustainable development ofenvironment–energy-economy, then Chinese energy exploring and utilizing policy, energy saving and emission reducing policy, and advices on sustainable economicgrowth have been designed respectively.
This research follows the thought of “question raising, theoretically requirement,empirical test, policy design, circling three theme of environment regulation, energyproductivity and economic growth, according to the vslue orientation of comprehensive,coordinated and sustainable development, constructing theory framework of energy,environment and economy, two reversed mechanisms of how environment boosteconomy and energy, how energy boosts economic growth. This research takes China assample, carrys out empirical research from three levels of environment regulationperformance, the influence of environment on energy, the influence of environment oneconomy, and the influenceof energy on economy, how constrained mechanism affectseconomic growth from many perspectives. Combining this research with significantnational development strategy, based on Chinese economic development practice,reality research and reality prove, exploring political path to boost coordinated andsustainable development of environment, energy and economy.
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